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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.

Florida A&M

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:316.0
Current RPI:316
Expected SOS:309
Current SOS:309
Current Record:8-23
Expected Record:8-23
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-11
Current OOC Record:0-12
Expected OOC Record:0-12
Expected OOC RPI:341
Expected OOC SOS:228


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-23316.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Georgia Tech (197.0)ACCA92-59L0%0.0
11-14Stetson (267.0)ASunH60-78L0%0.0
11-19Providence (156.0)BEA87-65L0%0.0
11-22Rice (171.0)CUSAA75-59L0%0.0
11-25Southern (281.0)SWACN64-61L0%0.0
11-26Western Carolina (220.0)SCN46-62L0%0.0
12-3Bethune Cookman (239.0)MEACA74-59L0%0.0
12-11South Florida (52.0)BEA83-59L0%0.0
12-17Akron (55.0)MACA91-69L0%0.0
12-19Auburn (145.0)SECA76-69L0%0.0
12-21North Florida (180.0)ASunH63-90L0%0.0
1-1Princeton (87.0)IvyH61-76L0%0.0
1-4Ball St. (256.0)MACA70-55L0%0.0
1-7North Carolina Central (233.0)MEACA60-62W100%0.0
1-9North Carolina A&T (289.0)MEACA85-82L0%0.0
1-14Savannah St. (191.0)MEACH58-69L0%0.0
1-16South Carolina St. (343.0)MEACH86-69W100%0.0
1-21Maryland Eastern Shore (320.0)MEACA63-68W100%0.0
1-23Delaware St. (249.0)MEACA65-51L0%0.0
1-28Bethune Cookman (239.0)MEACH68-62W100%0.0
2-4North Carolina Central (233.0)MEACH61-78L0%0.0
2-6North Carolina A&T (289.0)MEACH87-77W100%0.0
2-11Howard (284.0)MEACA71-69L0%0.0
2-18Savannah St. (191.0)MEACA76-57L0%0.0
2-20South Carolina St. (343.0)MEACA82-83W100%0.0
2-25Hampton (306.0)MEACH59-74L0%0.0
2-27Norfolk St. (128.0)MEACH70-79L0%0.0
3-1Morgan St. (286.0)MEACH68-74L0%0.0
3-6Coppin St. (276.0)MEACN72-74W100%0.0
3-8Delaware St. (249.0)MEACN55-65W100%0.0
3-9Norfolk St. (128.0)MEACN58-46L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida A&MMEAC26.2226.2227.2127.21-11.95-11.95
Bethune CookmanMEAC4.164.1648.3948.39-0.13-0.13
Savannah St.MEAC3.953.9560.7160.710.850.85
North Carolina A&TMEAC3.933.9329.6329.63-1.60-1.60
North Carolina CentralMEAC3.933.9346.1546.15-0.30-0.30
South Carolina St.MEAC3.933.9311.1111.11-3.05-3.05
Norfolk St.MEAC3.883.8873.3373.331.811.81
Delaware St.MEAC3.823.8248.0048.00-0.15-0.15
HamptonMEAC2.382.3834.3834.38-0.74-0.74
HowardMEAC2.352.3527.5927.59-1.06-1.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.332.3321.4321.43-1.33-1.33
Morgan St.MEAC2.272.2728.5728.57-0.97-0.97
Coppin St.MEAC2.262.2640.0040.00-0.45-0.45
North FloridaASun1.801.8046.6746.67-0.12-0.12
StetsonASun1.771.7725.9325.93-0.85-0.85
Georgia TechACC1.731.7333.3333.33-0.58-0.58
AuburnSEC1.711.7146.6746.67-0.11-0.11
AkronMAC1.701.7064.5264.520.490.49
ProvidenceBE1.691.6945.1645.16-0.16-0.16
South FloridaBE1.691.6958.0658.060.270.27
RiceCUSA1.671.6746.4346.43-0.12-0.12
SouthernSWAC1.671.6748.1548.15-0.06-0.06
Ball St.MAC1.641.6446.4346.43-0.12-0.12
PrincetonIvy1.611.6159.2659.260.300.30
Western CarolinaSC1.611.6143.7543.75-0.20-0.20
Gardner WebbBSth0.220.2233.3333.33-0.07-0.07
North Carolina St.ACC0.220.2264.7164.710.070.07
JacksonvilleASun0.210.2126.6726.67-0.10-0.10
Kennesaw St.ASun0.190.196.676.67-0.17-0.17
OhioMAC0.190.1978.7978.790.110.11
Longwoodind0.190.1922.2222.22-0.10-0.10
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.170.1775.7675.760.090.09
Central FloridaCUSA0.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
GeorgetownBE0.160.1673.3373.330.070.07
MarquetteBE0.150.1578.1278.120.090.09
WagnerNEC0.150.1580.6580.650.090.09
TulaneCUSA0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HawaiiWAC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
MercerASun0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Notre DameBE0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
South CarolinaSEC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
PittsburghBE0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
ToledoMAC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
NC GreensboroSC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
Houston BaptistGWC0.130.1325.9325.93-0.06-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaCUSA0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
HoustonCUSA0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Texas El PasoCUSA0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BelmontASun0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
LipscombASun0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1139.3939.39-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.110.1164.2964.290.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
BaylorB120.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
St. Mary'sWCC0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
AlabamaSEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
RutgersBE0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
VillanovaBE0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
CharlotteA100.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
OklahomaB120.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0819.2319.23-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Chicago St.GWC0.080.0810.7110.71-0.07-0.07
BrownIvy0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
ButlerHorz0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
FloridaSEC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Kansas St.B120.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
DrexelCAA0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
AmericanPat0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
NavyPat0.080.087.147.14-0.07-0.07
Texas ChristianMWC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Miami FLACC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
MississippiSEC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
ElonSC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
Georgia SouthernSC0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
SyracuseBE0.080.0893.9493.940.070.07
West VirginiaBE0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
WoffordSC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
GramblingSWAC0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
OregonP120.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
PennsylvaniaIvy0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
YaleIvy0.060.0665.3865.380.020.02
Texas A&MB120.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
CreightonMVC0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Georgia St.CAA0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
IowaB100.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
IUPUISum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
PurdueB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
LibertyBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Old DominionCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
MarylandACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiBE0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Long IslandNEC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
LouisvilleBE0.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
FurmanSC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Loyola MDMAAC0.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
San Jose St.WAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.033.123.12-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0334.6234.62-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
LehighPat0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Louisiana TechWAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
MemphisCUSA0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0396.4396.430.030.03
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Southern CaliforniaP120.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
TempleA100.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
XavierA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
KentuckySEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
NorthwesternB100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.036.676.67-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeSB0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
New HampshireAE0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Penn St.B100.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
High PointBSth0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00