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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Florida A&M

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:346.8
Current RPI:295
Expected SOS:344
Current SOS:206
Current Record:0-4
Expected Record:5-24
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-16
Current OOC Record:0-4
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:351
Expected OOC SOS:309



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15265.50.02%
13-16265.00.01%
12-17291.20.13%
11-18308.00.33%
10-19319.41.29%
9-20331.33.21%
8-21338.97.30%
7-22344.312.94%
6-23347.518.87%
5-24349.420.46%
4-25350.318.04%
3-26350.811.25%
2-27350.94.74%
1-28351.01.29%
0-29351.00.11%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Clemson (110.8)ACCA86-41L0%0.0
11-15USC Upstate (247.6)ASunA78-65L0%0.0
11-19San Diego (122.8)WCCA72-41L0%0.0
11-21Grand Canyon (256.1)WACA64-49L0%0.0
11-24Wyoming (69.3)MWCA0-01%-28.8
11-26New Mexico St. (87.2)WACA0-01%-26.3
11-29Stetson (312.6)ASunN0-027%-7.2
11-30Northern Colorado (218.8)BSkyA0-07%-18.1
12-6South Carolina St. (291.4)MEACA0-018%-11.0
12-19North Florida (220.5)ASunH0-020%-10.1
12-22East Carolina (228.1)AmerA0-07%-17.5
12-29FIU (207.5)CUSAH0-021%-9.8
1-3Stetson (312.6)ASunA0-018%-10.8
1-6Jacksonville (333.3)ASunH0-048%-0.5
1-10Norfolk St. (240.6)MEACH0-025%-8.2
1-12Hampton (241.8)MEACH0-023%-8.9
1-17Morgan St. (264.9)MEACA0-011%-15.0
1-19Coppin St. (249.1)MEACA0-014%-12.9
1-24Howard (305.9)MEACH0-036%-4.3
1-26Maryland Eastern Shore (328.8)MEACH0-049%-0.3
1-31Bethune Cookman (325.7)MEACH0-041%-2.7
2-2North Carolina Central (153.1)MEACA0-03%-23.2
2-9Delaware St. (249.4)MEACA0-011%-14.6
2-14North Carolina A&T (324.5)MEACH0-049%-0.3
2-16North Carolina Central (153.1)MEACH0-09%-16.0
2-21Bethune Cookman (325.7)MEACA0-020%-9.9
2-23Savannah St. (241.4)MEACA0-013%-13.3
2-28North Carolina A&T (324.5)MEACA0-027%-7.5
3-5Savannah St. (241.4)MEACH0-031%-6.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida A&MMEAC33.3326.210.0018.00-33.33-16.77
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.004.200.0034.75-0.00-1.28
North Carolina A&TMEAC3.124.130.0021.24-3.12-2.38
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.004.050.0070.09-0.001.63
Savannah St.MEAC0.004.0450.0038.930.00-0.89
StetsonASun0.003.820.0028.47-0.00-1.64
South Carolina St.MEAC0.002.370.0030.86-0.00-0.91
HamptonMEAC0.002.3425.0050.64-0.000.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.002.3120.0026.99-0.00-1.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.002.3133.3342.98-0.00-0.32
Morgan St.MEAC0.002.310.0038.65-0.00-0.52
Coppin St.MEAC0.002.310.0031.75-0.00-0.84
Norfolk St.MEAC0.002.3133.3344.76-0.00-0.24
HowardMEAC0.002.310.0034.46-0.00-0.72
USC UpstateASun12.502.16100.0049.1612.50-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.002.040.0024.04-0.00-1.06
North FloridaASun0.002.040.0045.87-0.00-0.17
New Mexico St.WAC0.001.9125.0064.86-0.000.57
WyomingMWC0.001.85100.0069.840.000.73
Northern ColoradoBSky0.001.850.0051.54-0.000.06
Grand CanyonWAC12.501.8433.3347.96-4.17-0.08
FIUCUSA0.001.82100.0041.870.00-0.30
ClemsonACC12.501.7233.3349.37-4.17-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.001.720.0031.27-0.00-0.65
San DiegoWCC12.501.7250.0046.340.00-0.13
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.3833.3340.99-0.00-0.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.35100.0072.860.000.16
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.3520.0026.89-0.00-0.16
LipscombASun0.000.320.0042.80-0.00-0.05
UCFAmer0.000.22100.0046.730.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.190.0034.98-0.00-0.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.180.0031.63-0.00-0.07
Florida St.ACC0.000.1633.3346.79-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky1.560.150.0023.51-1.56-0.08
WinthropBSth1.560.1550.0060.360.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.1533.3355.40-0.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.1575.0059.530.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.13100.0063.820.000.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.13100.0073.290.000.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.120.0046.56-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.12100.0065.060.000.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1233.3354.70-0.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.120.0031.61-0.00-0.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.12100.0071.830.000.05
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1250.0054.290.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.12100.0064.090.000.03
Miami FLACC0.000.12100.0073.530.000.06
Colorado St.MWC0.000.12100.0062.400.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.12100.0078.630.000.07
MarshallCUSA0.000.1266.6751.200.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.12100.0080.090.000.07
TowsonCAA0.000.1275.0053.860.000.01
NJITind0.000.1225.0025.21-0.00-0.06
Chicago St.WAC0.000.120.0025.43-0.00-0.06
SeattleWAC0.000.1233.3349.04-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.12100.0030.790.00-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1266.6749.370.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.10100.0064.500.000.03
IUPUISum0.000.1050.0031.810.00-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1033.3336.99-0.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.000.100.0066.25-0.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.09100.0076.190.000.05
IPFWSum0.000.0950.0063.720.000.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.09100.0050.830.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.09100.0062.040.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.09100.0046.040.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0950.0053.100.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0950.0035.040.00-0.03
HofstraCAA0.000.0966.6762.810.000.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0933.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.090.0035.36-0.00-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.09100.0053.080.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.09100.0080.630.000.06
CharlotteCUSA0.000.09100.0070.030.000.04
IndianaB100.000.09100.0062.040.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.09100.0075.720.000.05
FordhamA100.000.090.0035.11-0.00-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.09100.0059.190.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.09100.0074.620.000.04
NevadaMWC1.560.0933.3346.76-0.52-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.09100.0069.180.000.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0950.0033.700.00-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0966.6733.180.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0055.850.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0750.0052.290.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.070.0033.25-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.070.0018.48-0.00-0.04
BYUWCC0.000.06100.0070.030.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.0650.0053.040.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0087.190.000.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3327.10-0.00-0.03
MontanaBSky0.000.060.0048.00-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.060.0044.01-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.0650.0029.910.00-0.03
PortlandWCC0.000.06100.0051.660.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.06100.0050.420.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0650.0046.250.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0044.850.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0019.17-0.00-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0037.760.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0666.6753.050.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0666.6746.540.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0045.350.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC2.080.0675.0063.041.040.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0633.3335.92-0.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6760.720.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.060.0028.34-0.00-0.03
IowaB100.000.0650.0065.570.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.06100.0072.420.000.03
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0068.880.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0666.6758.650.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.060.0027.82-0.00-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3346.93-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.060.0063.56-0.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0666.6754.240.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.06100.0070.980.000.03
LSUSEC0.000.0675.0060.550.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0071.340.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.06100.0065.140.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0028.76-0.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0633.3321.74-0.00-0.03
BaylorB120.000.06100.0069.300.000.02
DenverSum0.000.0650.0061.440.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth1.560.0666.6768.980.520.02
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0067.100.000.02
OregonP120.000.06100.0071.440.000.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0056.24-0.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0037.22-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0052.610.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0633.3336.55-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.060.0036.19-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0056.330.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0073.660.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.060.0036.36-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0033.08-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0650.0052.260.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0650.0045.600.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0666.6758.230.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.06100.0045.790.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0675.0068.160.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0028.50-0.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0028.08-0.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.000.060.0043.18-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0063.070.000.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0028.19-0.00-0.03
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0053.210.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0675.0057.480.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0650.0041.630.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0633.3341.77-0.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.0017.53-0.00-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0058.780.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0031.23-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6768.230.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0067.49-0.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0047.120.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0333.3335.41-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0366.6746.620.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0033.75-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.03100.0042.120.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.03100.0060.550.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.080.0333.3341.92-0.69-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.03100.0042.650.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0055.87-0.000.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0062.510.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0333.3345.63-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0032.70-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0366.6748.790.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.030.0048.20-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0054.710.000.00
XavierBE0.000.03100.0077.070.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.0366.6763.730.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0333.3359.57-0.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0325.0056.39-0.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0340.0040.58-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0049.250.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0063.550.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6767.200.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6758.190.000.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0064.370.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0040.91-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0366.6767.450.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0325.0031.88-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0039.36-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0366.6746.900.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0047.840.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0057.540.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0366.6744.970.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0045.890.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0031.92-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0350.0054.620.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6740.400.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0041.480.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6760.610.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0350.0044.170.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0069.830.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0030.19-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0046.020.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0029.55-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0086.130.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0333.3341.21-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0375.0042.500.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0350.0067.960.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0375.0054.790.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0375.0055.790.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0325.0035.65-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0052.260.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6766.670.000.01
KentuckySEC1.560.03100.0085.631.560.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.030.0043.84-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0375.0071.100.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0333.3357.45-0.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0333.3340.91-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0044.810.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0045.990.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.030.0032.48-0.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0333.3349.42-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.030.0025.60-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0375.0047.170.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6750.790.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0056.240.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3327.11-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0366.6751.290.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0041.91-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0350.0037.560.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.72-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0053.430.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB1.560.0375.0057.060.780.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0350.0037.430.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0085.100.000.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0333.3354.50-0.000.00
NavyPat0.000.030.0032.62-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6752.550.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3343.68-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.000.03100.0073.570.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0065.270.000.01