Florida A&M

Conference:	MEAC
Expected RPI:	331.0
Current RPI:	331
Expected SOS:	314
Current SOS:	314
Current Record:	6-23
Expected Record:	6-23
Current Conf Record:	5-12
Expected Conf Record:	5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-11
Current OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC RPI:	335
Expected OOC SOS:	274

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
6-23	331.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Houston (197.0)	CUSA	A	81-76	L	0%
11-13	Stetson (220.0)	ASun	A	88-66	L	0%
11-18	Arizona St. (90.0)	P12	A	97-70	L	0%
11-20	Arkansas (89.0)	SEC	A	89-60	L	0%
11-23	Longwood (332.0)	BSth	N	83-86	L	0%
11-24	Presbyterian (340.0)	BSth	N	55-69	W	100%
11-29	North Florida (230.0)	ASun	A	72-47	L	0%
12-1	Bethune Cookman (277.0)	MEAC	H	75-67	W	100%
12-15	Clemson (185.0)	ACC	A	80-57	L	0%
12-29	Georgia (140.0)	SEC	A	82-73	L	0%
12-31	Texas Tech (214.0)	B12	A	70-56	L	0%
1-2	Florida International (111.0)	SB	A	88-72	L	0%
1-5	Central Florida (103.0)	CUSA	A	99-69	L	0%
1-12	North Carolina Central (155.0)	MEAC	H	62-85	L	0%
1-14	North Carolina A&T (213.0)	MEAC	H	40-68	L	0%
1-19	Savannah St. (166.0)	MEAC	A	57-55	L	0%
1-21	South Carolina St. (342.0)	MEAC	A	77-89	W	100%
1-26	Maryland Eastern Shore (345.0)	MEAC	H	55-54	W	100%
1-28	Delaware St. (263.0)	MEAC	H	48-57	L	0%
2-2	Bethune Cookman (277.0)	MEAC	A	67-65	L	0%
2-9	North Carolina Central (155.0)	MEAC	A	51-43	L	0%
2-11	North Carolina A&T (213.0)	MEAC	A	64-56	L	0%
2-14	Savannah St. (166.0)	MEAC	H	65-67	L	0%
2-16	Howard (334.0)	MEAC	H	46-45	W	100%
2-25	South Carolina St. (342.0)	MEAC	H	75-72	W	100%
3-2	Hampton (287.0)	MEAC	A	77-68	L	0%
3-4	Norfolk St. (178.0)	MEAC	A	69-58	L	0%
3-7	Morgan St. (236.0)	MEAC	A	78-67	L	0%
3-12	North Carolina A&T (213.0)	MEAC	N	65-54	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Florida A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Florida A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Florida A&M	MEAC	26.20	26.20	21.24	21.24	-15.07	-15.07
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	5.92	5.92	48.39	48.39	-0.19	-0.19
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	4.27	4.27	36.67	36.67	-1.14	-1.14
Savannah St.	MEAC	4.21	4.21	51.72	51.72	0.15	0.15
North Carolina Central	MEAC	4.16	4.16	65.38	65.38	1.28	1.28
South Carolina St.	MEAC	4.14	4.14	15.38	15.38	-2.86	-2.86
Morgan St.	MEAC	2.48	2.48	51.61	51.61	0.08	0.08
Delaware St.	MEAC	2.42	2.42	40.00	40.00	-0.48	-0.48
Howard	MEAC	2.32	2.32	21.43	21.43	-1.32	-1.32
Norfolk St.	MEAC	2.31	2.31	64.52	64.52	0.67	0.67
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	2.28	2.28	7.41	7.41	-1.94	-1.94
Hampton	MEAC	2.24	2.24	43.33	43.33	-0.30	-0.30
Central Florida	CUSA	1.92	1.92	60.71	60.71	0.41	0.41
North Florida	ASun	1.89	1.89	36.67	36.67	-0.50	-0.50
Stetson	ASun	1.89	1.89	44.83	44.83	-0.20	-0.20
Arkansas	SEC	1.83	1.83	58.06	58.06	0.30	0.30
Texas Tech	B12	1.83	1.83	33.33	33.33	-0.61	-0.61
Clemson	ACC	1.82	1.82	40.00	40.00	-0.36	-0.36
Longwood	BSth	1.81	1.81	16.67	16.67	-1.21	-1.21
Florida International	SB	1.81	1.81	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Presbyterian	BSth	1.78	1.78	17.86	17.86	-1.14	-1.14
Arizona St.	P12	1.78	1.78	62.50	62.50	0.44	0.44
Houston	CUSA	1.75	1.75	58.62	58.62	0.30	0.30
Georgia	SEC	1.75	1.75	45.16	45.16	-0.17	-0.17
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.70	0.70	22.58	22.58	-0.38	-0.38
Campbell	BSth	0.25	0.25	36.67	36.67	-0.07	-0.07
South Carolina	SEC	0.23	0.23	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.20	0.20	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.20	0.20	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.20	0.20	48.00	48.00	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.20	0.20	35.71	35.71	-0.06	-0.06
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.20	0.20	68.75	68.75	0.07	0.07
Florida	SEC	0.19	0.19	78.79	78.79	0.11	0.11
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.19	0.19	70.97	70.97	0.08	0.08
Radford	BSth	0.19	0.19	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
Winthrop	BSth	0.18	0.18	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.17	0.17	10.00	10.00	-0.14	-0.14
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.17	0.17	29.03	29.03	-0.07	-0.07
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.17	0.17	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.17	0.17	84.85	84.85	0.12	0.12
Maryland	ACC	0.15	0.15	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
South Florida	BE	0.15	0.15	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.14	0.14	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.14	0.14	42.31	42.31	-0.02	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Tulane	CUSA	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.14	0.14	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Pittsburgh	BE	0.14	0.14	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
Texas A&M	SEC	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.13	0.13	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.12	0.12	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Marquette	BE	0.12	0.12	74.19	74.19	0.06	0.06
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.12	0.12	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.12	0.12	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
Rice	CUSA	0.12	0.12	13.79	13.79	-0.08	-0.08
East Carolina	CUSA	0.12	0.12	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.12	0.12	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
NC Asheville	BSth	0.12	0.12	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.11	0.11	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Lipscomb	ASun	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
High Point	BSth	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.11	0.11	71.43	71.43	0.05	0.05
Tennessee	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Arizona	P12	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	57.69	57.69	0.02	0.02
UCLA	P12	0.11	0.11	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.10	0.10	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Wagner	NEC	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
American	Pat	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.09	0.09	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Christian	B12	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
West Virginia	B12	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	28.12	28.12	-0.04	-0.04
Western Kentucky	SB	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Southern California	P12	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.06	-0.06
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Texas	B12	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	14.81	14.81	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	ind	0.05	0.05	18.18	18.18	-0.03	-0.03
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	93.75	93.75	0.02	0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	70.37	70.37	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	85.19	85.19	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
California	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00