live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


Florida A&M

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:347.3
Current RPI:349
Expected SOS:350
Current SOS:348
Current Record:5-15
Expected Record:6-19
Current Conf Record:3-6
Expected Conf Record:4-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-14
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:336
Expected OOC SOS:295



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-15318.60.07%
9-16332.11.15%
8-17340.98.90%
7-18346.128.47%
6-19348.739.92%
5-20350.121.48%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Southern Illinois (138.9)MVCA81-51L0%0.0
11-21Houston (103.1)AmerA97-52L0%0.0
11-24UTEP (235.6)CUSAA72-54L0%0.0
11-27Abilene Christian (318.1)SlndN62-72L0%0.0
11-28Alcorn St. (281.1)SWACN73-71W100%0.0
12-2Kennesaw St. (293.4)ASunA61-41L0%0.0
12-5South Carolina St. (206.5)MEACH67-79L0%0.0
12-12Samford (248.5)SCH67-86L0%0.0
12-15Southeastern Louisiana (331.6)SlndH67-64W100%0.0
12-19North Florida (137.0)ASunA87-70L0%0.0
12-21Jacksonville (242.7)ASunA68-66L0%0.0
12-29FIU (232.8)CUSAA65-45L0%0.0
1-5Savannah St. (329.3)MEACH61-58W100%0.0
1-9Norfolk St. (207.4)MEACA77-56L0%0.0
1-11Hampton (193.0)MEACA71-65L0%0.0
1-16Morgan St. (332.4)MEACH72-65W100%0.0
1-18Coppin St. (327.5)MEACH66-70L0%0.0
1-30Bethune Cookman (301.7)MEACA88-56L0%0.0
2-1North Carolina Central (321.4)MEACH63-81L0%0.0
2-8Delaware St. (349.1)MEACH96-95W100%0.0
2-13North Carolina A&T (334.8)MEACA0-020%-9.0
2-15North Carolina Central (321.4)MEACA0-012%-12.8
2-20Bethune Cookman (301.7)MEACH0-031%-5.3
2-27North Carolina A&T (334.8)MEACH0-041%-2.4
3-3Savannah St. (329.3)MEACA0-022%-8.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida A&MMEAC26.1426.1821.2522.49-15.03-14.41
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.464.6629.1730.57-0.19-1.81
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.964.6528.5732.58-1.27-1.62
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.844.6421.0528.10-1.64-2.03
Savannah St.MEAC2.914.6140.0037.59-0.58-1.14
South Carolina St.MEAC3.022.6950.0052.460.000.13
Norfolk St.MEAC2.902.6240.9148.89-0.53-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC2.852.589.5212.69-2.30-1.93
Morgan St.MEAC2.842.5820.0026.85-1.71-1.19
HamptonMEAC2.912.5757.1459.840.420.51
Coppin St.MEAC2.842.4910.0017.46-2.27-1.62
JacksonvilleASun2.722.2547.6247.93-0.13-0.09
Kennesaw St.ASun2.662.1818.1820.56-1.69-1.28
North FloridaASun2.672.1863.6465.940.730.69
UTEPCUSA2.722.1750.0050.280.000.01
FIUCUSA2.612.1038.1043.34-0.62-0.28
HoustonAmer2.562.0868.1865.370.930.64
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.562.0715.7927.95-1.75-0.91
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.562.0731.5832.21-0.94-0.74
SamfordSC2.552.0439.1340.55-0.56-0.38
Alcorn St.SWAC2.552.0342.1141.85-0.40-0.33
Southern IllinoisMVC2.552.0370.8369.531.060.79
HowardMEAC0.410.6236.3638.93-0.11-0.14
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.460.6129.1733.74-0.19-0.20
StetsonASun0.390.3923.8127.69-0.20-0.17
USC UpstateASun0.220.2822.7323.24-0.12-0.15
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.330.2547.6252.07-0.020.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.290.2445.0049.42-0.03-0.00
LipscombASun0.170.2225.0029.27-0.08-0.09
NJITASun0.220.2254.1755.240.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.290.2182.6181.140.190.13
Jackson St.SWAC0.250.1950.0054.210.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.190.1961.9065.300.040.06
South FloridaAmer0.230.1820.0019.67-0.14-0.11
Louisiana TechCUSA0.170.1871.4368.720.070.07
Nicholls St.Slnd0.170.1818.1821.06-0.11-0.10
UNC GreensboroSC0.110.1727.2731.06-0.05-0.07
Old DominionCUSA0.230.1756.5262.790.030.04
CincinnatiAmer0.230.1770.8370.840.100.07
North TexasCUSA0.210.1733.3333.02-0.07-0.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.170.1552.0050.240.010.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1520.0022.32-0.08-0.08
East Tennessee St.SC0.110.1559.0959.350.020.03
MarshallCUSA0.170.1450.0051.180.000.00
AkronMAC0.170.1481.8280.030.110.09
LamarSlnd0.240.1430.0029.25-0.10-0.06
MercerSC0.220.1469.5769.090.090.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.1415.0018.08-0.09-0.09
NebraskaB100.230.1454.1751.850.020.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.180.1447.8350.14-0.010.00
The CitadelSC0.160.1431.8230.06-0.06-0.05
East CarolinaAmer0.110.1443.4842.00-0.01-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1422.7327.19-0.06-0.06
ToledoMAC0.060.1459.0960.100.010.03
UCFAmer0.060.1452.3845.690.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.110.1413.6413.62-0.08-0.10
CharlotteCUSA0.060.1334.7840.93-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.120.1128.5729.64-0.05-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.120.1147.8348.88-0.01-0.00
UtahP120.120.1169.5767.490.050.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.120.1140.9143.53-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1124.0025.69-0.07-0.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.130.1150.0049.770.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.130.1152.9452.160.010.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.1176.1972.290.030.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.119.0917.12-0.10-0.07
UC RiversideBW0.180.1145.8341.65-0.01-0.02
OaklandHorz0.180.1168.0067.980.060.04
PortlandWCC0.180.1140.0038.51-0.04-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.1121.0527.79-0.04-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.130.1117.6529.21-0.08-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.000.1127.7834.19-0.00-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.130.1117.6526.67-0.08-0.05
TCUB120.180.1145.8339.31-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.160.1179.1776.080.090.06
LSUSEC0.160.1065.2260.250.050.02
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1086.9686.690.080.08
West VirginiaB120.110.1082.6179.560.070.06
FloridaSEC0.060.1065.2266.070.020.03
SMUAmer0.170.1090.9186.160.140.07
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.160.1014.2915.45-0.12-0.07
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1071.4369.420.050.04
UABCUSA0.110.1082.6179.410.070.06
DrakeMVC0.110.1021.7423.66-0.06-0.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.1033.3335.08-0.02-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1031.5831.99-0.04-0.04
TempleAmer0.110.1063.6459.840.030.02
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1075.0076.230.050.05
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1052.1751.960.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.1063.6459.460.010.02
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0842.8639.19-0.01-0.02
BaylorB120.060.0872.7366.460.030.03
ClemsonACC0.060.0858.3358.410.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0840.0039.00-0.01-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0840.9140.65-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0834.7830.38-0.02-0.03
OregonP120.060.0882.6179.220.040.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0836.3636.08-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.0736.8441.40-0.03-0.01
Kansas St.B120.110.0760.8758.370.020.01
TowsonCAA0.120.0765.2259.750.040.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0736.8442.90-0.02-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0728.5733.37-0.03-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.110.0726.0929.19-0.05-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0745.4554.11-0.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.120.0754.5550.100.010.00
IndianaB100.120.0779.1774.020.070.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.0766.6762.630.040.02
Florida St.ACC0.120.0769.5764.850.050.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.0725.0024.35-0.05-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.0710.0013.14-0.09-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.110.0772.2274.700.050.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.130.0772.2275.580.060.04
Colorado St.MWC0.120.0752.3850.420.010.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.0742.8646.36-0.02-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.110.0759.0953.040.020.00
Austin PeayOVC0.110.0737.5040.54-0.03-0.01
ElonCAA0.110.0752.1750.420.000.00
BrownIvy0.060.0731.5831.08-0.02-0.03
FurmanSC0.100.0754.1754.070.010.01
RichmondA100.060.0754.5554.490.010.01
VMISC0.050.0715.0016.70-0.04-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0728.5731.26-0.02-0.03
WoffordSC0.100.0743.4846.23-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.100.0736.3633.47-0.03-0.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0728.5729.68-0.02-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.0745.4546.27-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0759.0958.870.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0773.9172.490.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.0765.2268.620.030.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0724.0024.50-0.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0763.6462.150.000.02
PurdueB100.000.0779.1776.510.000.04
TulaneAmer0.050.0733.3332.31-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.110.0765.2261.430.030.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0754.1749.230.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.100.0745.4549.70-0.01-0.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0612.5012.85-0.04-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0654.1750.940.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.0643.4842.62-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0639.1337.73-0.01-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.100.0654.1755.070.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.100.0672.7376.360.050.03
CaliforniaP120.060.0465.2262.840.020.01
CreightonBE0.060.0462.5059.800.010.01
FordhamA100.060.0455.0052.260.010.00
IowaB100.060.0482.6180.590.040.02
Iowa St.B120.060.0473.9170.050.030.02
AmericanPat0.060.0430.4331.91-0.02-0.01
ColoradoP120.060.0469.5765.360.020.01
IPFWSum0.060.0470.8368.570.020.01
MaristMAAC0.060.0422.7324.79-0.03-0.02
NavyPat0.060.0462.5062.390.010.01
New HampshireAE0.060.0457.1453.980.010.00
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0433.3335.47-0.02-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0471.4369.860.020.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0465.0063.440.020.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0454.1751.640.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0452.1755.940.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0463.6459.220.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0466.6766.540.020.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0466.6767.690.020.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0428.5728.54-0.03-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0463.6460.930.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0486.3682.380.040.02
DuquesneA100.050.0463.6456.440.010.00
HartfordAE0.050.0425.0026.76-0.03-0.02
High PointBSth0.060.0455.0057.480.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0445.8344.12-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.050.0440.0039.79-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0422.7324.96-0.03-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0442.8642.01-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0431.8230.47-0.02-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0458.3354.120.010.00
RiderMAAC0.060.0440.0042.12-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0471.4368.950.020.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0437.5043.36-0.01-0.00
VCUA100.050.0473.9173.910.030.02
VirginiaACC0.060.0482.6178.070.040.02
WagnerNEC0.060.0463.6465.030.020.01
BinghamtonAE0.060.0320.8324.10-0.03-0.02
DelawareCAA0.060.0321.7423.33-0.03-0.02
DePaulBE0.050.0334.7834.54-0.02-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0361.9059.630.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0345.4547.56-0.01-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.060.0352.1751.630.000.00
IdahoBSky0.050.0354.5554.950.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.060.0370.8369.500.020.01
MichiganB100.060.0369.5766.240.020.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0363.1658.810.010.01
OhioMAC0.050.0361.9059.450.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0339.1341.12-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.060.0338.8937.62-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0333.3334.19-0.02-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0386.3679.140.040.02
TexasB120.050.0366.6762.220.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0378.2678.050.040.02
TroySB0.050.0323.8126.67-0.03-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0372.7371.620.020.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0360.8760.780.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0356.5256.630.010.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0338.8938.50-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0366.6770.550.020.01
Washington St.P120.050.0336.3631.98-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0343.4842.49-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0345.4538.46-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0317.3920.66-0.03-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0313.6415.79-0.04-0.02