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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Florida A&M

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:349.0
Current RPI:349
Expected SOS:350
Current SOS:350
Current Record:6-21
Expected Record:6-21
Current Conf Record:4-12
Expected Conf Record:4-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-17
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:333
Expected OOC SOS:296



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-21349.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCA81-51L0%0.0
11-21Houston (87.0)AmerA97-52L0%0.0
11-24UTEP (215.0)CUSAA72-54L0%0.0
11-27Abilene Christian (321.0)SlndN62-72L0%0.0
11-28Alcorn St. (253.0)SWACN73-71W100%0.0
12-2Kennesaw St. (263.0)ASunA61-41L0%0.0
12-5South Carolina St. (203.0)MEACH67-79L0%0.0
12-12Samford (252.0)SCH67-86L0%0.0
12-15Southeastern Louisiana (331.0)SlndH67-64W100%0.0
12-19North Florida (161.0)ASunA87-70L0%0.0
12-21Jacksonville (289.0)ASunA68-66L0%0.0
12-29FIU (270.0)CUSAA65-45L0%0.0
1-5Savannah St. (277.0)MEACH61-58W100%0.0
1-9Norfolk St. (225.0)MEACA77-56L0%0.0
1-11Hampton (155.0)MEACA71-65L0%0.0
1-16Morgan St. (327.0)MEACH72-65W100%0.0
1-18Coppin St. (326.0)MEACH66-70L0%0.0
1-30Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACA88-56L0%0.0
2-1North Carolina Central (310.0)MEACH63-81L0%0.0
2-8Delaware St. (345.0)MEACH96-95W100%0.0
2-13North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACA75-68L0%0.0
2-15North Carolina Central (310.0)MEACA79-74L0%0.0
2-20Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACH54-55L0%0.0
2-22Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACA80-81W100%0.0
2-24Howard (328.0)MEACA63-53L0%0.0
2-27North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACH70-77L0%0.0
3-3Savannah St. (277.0)MEACA52-40L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida A&MMEAC26.0826.0821.2421.24-15.00-15.00
Savannah St.MEAC4.414.4148.1548.15-0.16-0.16
North Carolina CentralMEAC4.414.4129.6329.63-1.80-1.80
Bethune CookmanMEAC4.394.3935.7135.71-1.25-1.25
North Carolina A&TMEAC4.364.3627.5927.59-1.95-1.95
South Carolina St.MEAC2.632.6353.3353.330.180.18
Norfolk St.MEAC2.562.5646.6746.67-0.17-0.17
HamptonMEAC2.562.5665.5265.520.800.80
Coppin St.MEAC2.532.5321.4321.43-1.44-1.44
Delaware St.MEAC2.502.5017.2417.24-1.64-1.64
HowardMEAC2.502.5031.0331.03-0.95-0.95
Morgan St.MEAC2.502.5027.5927.59-1.12-1.12
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.472.4730.0030.00-0.99-0.99
JacksonvilleASun2.072.0740.7440.74-0.38-0.38
UTEPCUSA2.042.0454.8454.840.200.20
North FloridaASun2.012.0162.0762.070.490.49
Kennesaw St.ASun2.012.0128.5728.57-0.86-0.86
FIUCUSA1.971.9734.4834.48-0.61-0.61
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.921.9233.3333.33-0.64-0.64
HoustonAmer1.921.9270.0070.000.770.77
Abilene ChristianSlnd1.911.9130.7730.77-0.74-0.74
SamfordSC1.881.8836.6736.67-0.50-0.50
Alcorn St.SWAC1.881.8848.1548.15-0.07-0.07
Southern IllinoisMVC1.881.8867.7467.740.670.67
StetsonASun0.350.3526.6726.67-0.16-0.16
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.290.2955.1755.170.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.280.2825.0025.00-0.14-0.14
LipscombASun0.220.2232.2632.26-0.08-0.08
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.220.2251.7251.720.010.01
NJITASun0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.190.1979.3179.310.110.11
Old DominionCUSA0.180.1862.8662.860.050.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.160.1622.8622.86-0.09-0.09
Jackson St.SWAC0.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.160.1624.2424.24-0.08-0.08
Nicholls St.Slnd0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Louisiana TechCUSA0.150.1570.0070.000.060.06
MarshallCUSA0.150.1551.5251.520.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.150.1568.7568.750.060.06
North TexasCUSA0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
LamarSlnd0.130.1326.9226.92-0.06-0.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.1314.2914.29-0.09-0.09
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
NebraskaB100.120.1247.0647.06-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
AkronMAC0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
The CitadelSC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
ToledoMAC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
UCFAmer0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
UTSACUSA0.120.1213.3313.33-0.09-0.09
CharlotteCUSA0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.100.1056.0056.000.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1076.6776.670.050.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
OaklandHorz0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
PortlandWCC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
TCUB120.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
UtahP120.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0926.9226.92-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0920.8320.83-0.05-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
FloridaSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
LSUSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
DrakeMVC0.090.0920.0020.00-0.06-0.06
Kansas St.B120.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
UABCUSA0.090.0980.6580.650.060.06
PurdueB100.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
SMUAmer0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
TempleAmer0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0918.5218.52-0.06-0.06
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.090.0935.2935.29-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.090.0922.2222.22-0.05-0.05
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.060.0678.1278.120.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0682.1482.140.040.04
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
ClemsonACC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
BrownIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
AmericanPat0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
UMBCAE0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
FurmanSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
BradleyMVC0.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
High PointBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
WagnerNEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
TroySB0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01