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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.


Central Florida

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:54.0
Current RPI:54
Expected SOS:76
Current SOS:76
Current Record:20-10
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:11-7
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:76
Expected OOC SOS:175



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1054.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Florida St. (11.0)ACCA73-50L0%0.0
11-18High Point (268.0)BSthH84-72W100%0.0
11-24College of Charleston (122.0)SCN63-74W100%0.0
11-25Connecticut (32.0)BEN63-68W100%0.0
11-26Harvard (35.0)IvyN49-59L0%0.0
12-3Hartford (307.0)AEH67-48W100%0.0
12-10Bethune Cookman (239.0)MEACH53-51W100%0.0
12-13North Carolina A&T (289.0)MEACH77-65W100%0.0
12-17Old Dominion (103.0)CAAH61-53W100%0.0
12-21Louisiana Lafayette (185.0)SBA61-60L0%0.0
12-29Stetson (267.0)ASunH80-70W100%0.0
12-30Rhode Island (257.0)A10H65-54W100%0.0
1-4Tulane (250.0)CUSAH60-53W100%0.0
1-7East Carolina (164.0)CUSAA63-81W100%0.0
1-11Houston (221.0)CUSAH74-63W100%0.0
1-14Marshall (43.0)CUSAA65-64L0%0.0
1-18Memphis (16.0)CUSAH68-67W100%0.0
1-21UAB (112.0)CUSAA41-48W100%0.0
1-25Tulsa (120.0)CUSAA66-61L0%0.0
1-28Southern Mississippi (20.0)CUSAH65-78L0%0.0
2-4Southern Methodist (212.0)CUSAA52-59W100%0.0
2-8Marshall (43.0)CUSAH67-60W100%0.0
2-11Southern Mississippi (20.0)CUSAA78-74L0%0.0
2-18East Carolina (164.0)CUSAH64-55W100%0.0
2-22Rice (171.0)CUSAA83-74L0%0.0
2-25Texas El Paso (147.0)CUSAH63-45W100%0.0
2-28Memphis (16.0)CUSAA84-55L0%0.0
3-3UAB (112.0)CUSAH71-63W100%0.0
3-8UAB (112.0)CUSAN64-54W100%0.0
3-9Memphis (16.0)CUSAA83-52L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Central Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Central Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Central FloridaCUSA26.2926.2968.4268.429.689.68
MemphisCUSA5.745.7477.4277.423.153.15
UABCUSA5.675.6753.5753.570.410.41
MarshallCUSA4.254.2561.2961.290.960.96
Southern MississippiCUSA4.154.1572.4172.411.861.86
East CarolinaCUSA4.124.1244.0044.00-0.49-0.49
Texas El PasoCUSA2.372.3748.3948.39-0.08-0.08
TulaneCUSA2.342.3446.4346.43-0.17-0.17
RiceCUSA2.322.3246.4346.43-0.17-0.17
HoustonCUSA2.322.3250.0050.000.000.00
TulsaCUSA2.322.3253.3353.330.150.15
Southern MethodistCUSA2.322.3237.9337.93-0.56-0.56
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.751.7550.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC1.751.7571.8871.880.770.77
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.751.7532.1432.14-0.62-0.62
Old DominionCAA1.731.7362.5062.500.430.43
ConnecticutBE1.721.7262.5062.500.430.43
HarvardIvy1.721.7285.7185.711.231.23
High PointBSth1.721.7239.2939.29-0.37-0.37
StetsonASun1.721.7229.6329.63-0.70-0.70
College of CharlestonSC1.671.6763.3363.330.440.44
HartfordAE1.671.6730.0030.00-0.67-0.67
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.671.6748.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Rhode IslandA101.671.6723.3323.33-0.89-0.89
BelmontASun0.230.2378.7978.790.130.13
Murray St.OVC0.210.2196.4396.430.190.19
TennesseeSEC0.200.2054.8454.840.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.190.1946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.190.1926.6726.67-0.09-0.09
South AlabamaSB0.190.1957.1457.140.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.170.1773.3373.330.080.08
NC GreensboroSC0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.170.1757.1457.140.020.02
MassachusettsA100.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.170.1725.8125.81-0.08-0.08
CharlotteA100.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
SyracuseBE0.150.1593.9493.940.140.14
Miami FLACC0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
CampbellBSth0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.150.1557.6957.690.020.02
NC AshevilleBSth0.140.1470.0070.000.060.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
Boston UniversityAE0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
CreightonMVC0.140.1484.8584.850.090.09
George WashingtonA100.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
FloridaSEC0.140.1469.7069.700.050.05
Kent St.MAC0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
VermontAE0.130.1367.6567.650.050.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1310.3410.34-0.11-0.11
LipscombASun0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.130.1382.3582.350.080.08
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
LouisvilleBE0.130.1374.2974.290.060.06
Appalachian St.SC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Texas ChristianMWC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.07-0.07
BrownIvy0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
WoffordSC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
YaleIvy0.110.1165.3865.380.030.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.1119.2319.23-0.07-0.07
MississippiSEC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
DenverSB0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
Middle TennesseeSB0.110.1180.0080.000.070.07
TroySB0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.110.1183.8783.870.070.07
James MadisonCAA0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistGWC0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
MaineAE0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
George MasonCAA0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
South FloridaBE0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
ClemsonACC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
NC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaBE0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
XavierA100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
North FloridaASun0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
North TexasSB0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
FordhamA100.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
The CitadelSC0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
Georgia SouthernSC0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
AkronMAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
OhioMAC0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
Virginia TechACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiBE0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
DukeACC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.066.676.67-0.05-0.05
South Carolina UpstateASun0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
CornellIvy0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
PennsylvaniaIvy0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Texas St.Slnd0.060.0634.6234.62-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
TempleA100.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
TexasB120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0639.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DuquesneA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.056.456.45-0.05-0.05
DavidsonSC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
ElonSC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.CAA0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Notre DameBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.053.123.12-0.05-0.05
VirginiaACC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
Chicago St.GWC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
GramblingSWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
HawaiiWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MonmouthNEC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.037.147.14-0.02-0.02
OaklandSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
OklahomaB120.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Seattleind0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MB120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyGWC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Florida InternationalSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.WAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Penn St.B100.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacNEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0334.6234.62-0.01-0.01
St. LouisA100.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
OregonP120.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
Long IslandNEC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
MarylandACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
MissouriB120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
PittsburghBE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
RutgersBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02