The results on this page EXCLUDE CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED DAILY

New! For the weekly updated Central Florida page with conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Feb 7, 2010.

Central Florida

Conference:		CUSA
Expected RPI:		192.9
Current RPI:		170
Expected SOS:		148
Current SOS:		127
Current Record:		10-11
Expected Record:		13-16
Current Conf Record:		3-5
Expected Conf Record:		6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:		0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:		0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:		0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:		4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:		8-1
Current OOC Record:		7-6
Expected OOC Record:		7-6
Expected OOC RPI:		167
Expected OOC SOS:		182

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-12	118.4	0.05%
16-13	139.0	1.21%
15-14	157.6	6.86%
14-15	174.8	20.54%
13-16	191.5	34.97%
12-17	208.1	26.16%
11-18	223.7	9.02%
10-19	236.9	1.18%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-13	Massachusetts (194.2)	A10	H	84-67	W	100%	0.0
11-17	Howard (313.9)	MEAC	H	68-59	W	100%	0.0
11-20	Auburn (163.8)	SEC	N	84-74	W	100%	0.0
11-21	Niagara (157.5)	MAAC	N	46-63	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Drake (179.5)	MVC	N	59-50	W	100%	0.0
11-28	Albany (293.1)	AE	H	76-72	W	100%	0.0
12-6	Notre Dame (75.1)	BE	A	72-90	L	0%	0.0
12-12	Bethune Cookman (229.3)	MEAC	H	63-50	W	100%	0.0
12-16	South Florida (64.9)	BE	A	65-69	L	0%	0.0
12-20	Connecticut (54.2)	BE	A	51-60	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Liberty (252.2)	BSth	H	82-58	W	100%	0.0
12-30	Jacksonville (143.2)	ASun	H	51-61	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Mississippi (42.6)	SEC	A	56-84	L	0%	0.0
1-9	Rice (288.1)	CUSA	H	77-58	W	100%	0.0
1-13	Marshall (82.0)	CUSA	H	75-81	L	0%	0.0
1-16	Tulsa (63.1)	CUSA	A	70-90	L	0%	0.0
1-20	Houston (144.5)	CUSA	A	78-71	W	100%	0.0
1-23	Texas El Paso (53.5)	CUSA	H	59-96	L	0%	0.0
1-27	Southern Methodist (197.3)	CUSA	A	43-65	L	0%	0.0
1-30	Tulsa (63.1)	CUSA	H	50-55	L	0%	0.0
2-2	East Carolina (243.1)	CUSA	A	67-56	W	100%	0.0
2-10	Memphis (65.5)	CUSA	A	0-0		5%	-17.4
2-13	Tulane (255.7)	CUSA	H	0-0		71%	6.1
2-16	Houston (144.5)	CUSA	H	0-0		36%	-3.8
2-20	Southern Mississippi (111.9)	CUSA	A	0-0		17%	-10.3
2-24	UAB (34.4)	CUSA	H	0-0		25%	-7.5
2-27	Marshall (82.0)	CUSA	A	0-0		11%	-13.4
3-2	East Carolina (243.1)	CUSA	H	0-0		77%	8.1
3-6	Rice (288.1)	CUSA	A	0-0		47%	-0.9

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Sorted by , Current Weight, End-Of-Season Weight, Current Help Index, Expected Help Index, and then Alphabetically.

Weights are percentages.

Central Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Central Florida.

Help Ind is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

BY CURRENT WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
Central Florida	CUSA	26.23	26.16	45.16	42.16	-2.54	-4.10
Tulsa	CUSA	5.04	4.02	75.00	68.85	2.52	1.52
Houston	CUSA	2.77	4.02	50.00	52.23	0.00	0.18
Texas El Paso	CUSA	2.71	2.41	76.19	74.82	1.42	1.20
Marshall	CUSA	2.66	4.05	65.00	63.31	0.80	1.08
Rice	CUSA	2.66	4.05	33.33	30.62	-0.89	-1.57
Southern Methodist	CUSA	2.65	2.44	42.11	41.88	-0.42	-0.40
East Carolina	CUSA	2.61	4.05	21.05	22.79	-1.51	-2.20
Notre Dame	BE	2.59	1.87	69.57	62.17	1.01	0.46
South Florida	BE	2.54	1.84	63.64	60.87	0.69	0.40
Mississippi	SEC	2.49	1.84	72.73	71.58	1.13	0.80
Howard	MEAC	2.49	1.81	26.09	27.53	-1.19	-0.81
Niagara	MAAC	2.48	1.78	50.00	50.23	0.00	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	2.48	1.81	57.89	55.60	0.39	0.20
Auburn	SEC	2.48	1.81	47.62	44.09	-0.12	-0.21
Jacksonville	ASun	2.44	1.75	54.55	58.46	0.22	0.30
Connecticut	BE	2.43	1.81	59.09	55.04	0.44	0.18
Liberty	BSth	2.43	1.75	45.00	43.11	-0.24	-0.24
Albany	AE	2.38	1.72	24.00	26.63	-1.24	-0.81
Drake	MVC	2.38	1.72	45.83	44.64	-0.20	-0.18
Massachusetts	A10	2.38	1.75	33.33	32.77	-0.79	-0.60
Tulane	CUSA	0.45	2.42	31.82	29.61	-0.16	-0.99
Memphis	CUSA	0.39	2.42	69.57	69.17	0.15	0.93
UAB	CUSA	0.39	2.36	82.61	78.67	0.26	1.35
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.34	2.38	55.56	54.77	0.04	0.23
Troy	SB	0.22	0.24	47.62	50.38	-0.01	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.22	0.21	25.00	34.68	-0.11	-0.06
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.21	0.20	39.13	35.38	-0.05	-0.06
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.21	0.14	23.81	27.28	-0.11	-0.07
Missouri St.	MVC	0.21	0.14	66.67	64.62	0.07	0.04
West Virginia	BE	0.21	0.17	86.36	82.20	0.15	0.11
South Carolina	SEC	0.21	0.12	59.09	54.41	0.04	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.20	0.20	60.87	55.54	0.04	0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.20	0.15	39.13	38.63	-0.04	-0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.19	0.11	72.00	70.73	0.08	0.05
Old Dominion	CAA	0.17	0.12	72.00	73.54	0.08	0.06
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.17	0.12	29.17	28.85	-0.07	-0.05
Texas Christian	MWC	0.17	0.15	40.91	38.27	-0.03	-0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.17	0.21	69.57	68.48	0.07	0.08
High Point	BSth	0.17	0.15	42.86	44.37	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.17	0.15	81.82	75.66	0.11	0.08
Nevada	WAC	0.16	0.12	57.14	60.54	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.16	0.12	50.00	50.96	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.16	0.18	47.83	47.55	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.16	0.15	31.82	42.24	-0.06	-0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.16	0.11	23.81	28.38	-0.08	-0.05
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.16	0.12	40.00	42.64	-0.03	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.16	0.09	47.83	44.39	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.16	0.09	95.65	88.67	0.14	0.07
Seton Hall	BE	0.16	0.11	57.14	57.47	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.16	0.09	55.00	52.00	0.02	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.16	0.11	47.83	42.90	-0.01	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.15	0.12	43.48	45.31	-0.02	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.15	0.11	52.17	46.62	0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.15	0.11	65.22	67.00	0.05	0.04
Georgia St.	CAA	0.15	0.09	37.50	38.45	-0.04	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.15	0.14	95.83	91.37	0.13	0.12
Akron	MAC	0.14	0.08	69.57	66.00	0.06	0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.14	0.12	44.00	45.15	-0.02	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.14	0.08	50.00	51.56	0.00	0.00
Boston University	AE	0.14	0.08	54.17	57.70	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.14	0.08	66.67	63.46	0.05	0.02
North Carolina Central	ind	0.12	0.09	4.76	9.78	-0.11	-0.08
Texas St.	Slnd	0.12	0.06	36.84	36.82	-0.03	-0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.12	0.12	77.27	77.12	0.06	0.07
Clemson	ACC	0.12	0.10	69.57	66.88	0.05	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.11	0.09	78.26	71.72	0.06	0.04
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.11	0.12	22.73	24.05	-0.06	-0.06
Presbyterian	BSth	0.11	0.06	12.50	15.31	-0.09	-0.04
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.11	0.06	21.05	22.43	-0.07	-0.04
Winthrop	BSth	0.11	0.06	52.38	54.80	0.01	0.01
Campbell	ASun	0.11	0.12	57.14	58.76	0.02	0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.11	0.09	40.00	40.09	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.11	0.15	47.62	44.73	-0.01	-0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.11	0.09	59.09	51.13	0.02	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.11	0.06	11.11	20.93	-0.08	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.11	0.09	47.06	50.65	-0.01	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.11	0.15	19.05	22.94	-0.07	-0.08
George Washington	A10	0.11	0.12	54.55	55.07	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.11	0.12	27.27	29.40	-0.05	-0.05
Winston Salem St.	ind	0.11	0.09	29.41	29.63	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.11	0.09	33.33	33.43	-0.04	-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.11	0.09	47.37	52.55	-0.01	0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.11	0.06	20.00	20.57	-0.06	-0.03
Colorado	B12	0.11	0.06	42.86	40.56	-0.02	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.11	0.06	24.00	23.74	-0.06	-0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.11	0.09	47.62	49.36	-0.01	-0.00
Nebraska	B12	0.11	0.06	56.52	50.42	0.01	0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.11	0.06	61.90	56.37	0.03	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.11	0.06	69.57	63.55	0.04	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.11	0.06	54.17	58.55	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.12	91.30	88.21	0.09	0.09
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.11	0.12	52.17	54.94	0.00	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.11	0.06	69.57	67.93	0.04	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.11	0.11	56.52	54.14	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.11	0.09	33.33	39.38	-0.04	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.14	52.17	48.47	0.00	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.11	0.09	57.14	57.10	0.02	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.11	0.06	47.62	50.81	-0.01	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.11	0.06	73.91	69.49	0.05	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.11	0.09	73.68	75.41	0.05	0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.11	0.12	26.32	31.51	-0.05	-0.04
Texas	B12	0.11	0.09	82.61	78.76	0.07	0.05
Virginia	ACC	0.11	0.09	66.67	57.29	0.04	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.09	56.52	50.47	0.01	0.00
Belmont	ASun	0.10	0.06	60.00	63.83	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.11	77.27	73.36	0.06	0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.10	0.06	52.17	56.48	0.00	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.11	65.22	62.07	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.10	0.08	73.91	70.80	0.05	0.04
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.06	18.18	21.04	-0.07	-0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.09	56.52	51.96	0.01	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.10	0.06	35.00	30.59	-0.03	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.08	34.78	33.89	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.06	40.91	34.84	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.10	0.09	43.48	39.42	-0.01	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.11	90.91	82.52	0.08	0.07
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.10	0.06	0.00	5.15	-0.10	-0.05
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.10	0.06	45.45	47.48	-0.01	-0.00
Maine	AE	0.10	0.08	63.64	61.86	0.03	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.10	0.08	69.57	64.51	0.04	0.02
American	Pat	0.10	0.06	30.43	32.39	-0.04	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.10	0.09	70.83	73.80	0.04	0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.10	0.06	52.17	55.04	0.00	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.10	0.06	52.17	50.21	0.00	0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.10	0.06	50.00	50.68	0.00	0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.10	0.06	58.33	58.93	0.02	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.10	0.06	79.17	77.30	0.06	0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.09	0.08	83.33	81.25	0.06	0.05
Vermont	AE	0.09	0.06	68.00	67.20	0.03	0.02
Army	Pat	0.06	0.03	57.14	59.04	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.06	0.03	66.67	65.62	0.02	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.06	0.03	39.13	41.53	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	ind	0.06	0.03	23.81	29.40	-0.03	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	68.18	62.73	0.02	0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.06	21.74	24.84	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.06	0.03	81.82	80.91	0.04	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.03	66.67	68.11	0.02	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.09	52.94	56.30	0.00	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.91	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	B12	0.06	0.03	72.73	66.85	0.03	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.03	12.00	18.82	-0.05	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.06	76.19	71.14	0.03	0.03
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.06	0.06	80.95	82.07	0.04	0.04
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	20.00	23.58	-0.03	-0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.06	0.06	62.50	57.74	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.06	82.61	75.26	0.04	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.03	22.73	27.28	-0.03	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.06	33.33	37.71	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	22.22	26.51	-0.03	-0.03
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	52.38	56.23	0.00	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	20.00	24.04	-0.03	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.06	0.06	55.56	58.32	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.80	-0.01	-0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.03	28.57	36.52	-0.02	-0.01
Arizona	P10	0.05	0.06	52.17	53.65	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	46.80	-0.02	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.03	76.19	72.73	0.03	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.03	52.17	48.76	0.00	-0.00
Brigham Young	MWC	0.05	0.03	87.50	87.42	0.04	0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.03	85.71	85.57	0.04	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.03	9.52	8.87	-0.04	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.05	0.06	42.86	41.05	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.03	17.39	20.11	-0.04	-0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.03	23.53	25.88	-0.03	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.03	26.09	31.05	-0.03	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.09	47.83	46.36	-0.00	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.03	79.17	76.61	0.03	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	58.33	54.32	0.01	0.00
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.06	61.90	63.69	0.01	0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	71.78	0.02	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.06	86.36	81.50	0.04	0.04
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.03	75.00	71.23	0.03	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.06	30.43	29.01	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.06	39.13	36.57	-0.01	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	70.59	72.98	0.02	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.06	33.33	34.27	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.78	-0.01	-0.00
Temple	A10	0.05	0.03	79.17	77.57	0.03	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	45.00	54.19	-0.01	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.03	68.18	59.30	0.02	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.09	76.19	73.20	0.03	0.04
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.03	69.57	71.43	0.02	0.01
California	P10	0.05	0.03	65.22	68.42	0.02	0.01
Centenary	Sum	0.05	0.03	27.27	27.20	-0.02	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	52.29	0.00	0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.03	27.27	31.08	-0.02	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.09	82.61	82.33	0.03	0.06
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.09	50.00	53.75	0.00	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.09	73.91	67.72	0.02	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.09	47.62	45.44	-0.00	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.03	45.83	47.77	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	38.10	41.29	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.03	81.82	79.60	0.03	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.06	69.57	70.29	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.08	65.22	66.09	0.02	0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.06	42.86	42.46	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.00	-0.00	-0.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.03	30.43	32.32	-0.02	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.03	31.82	32.31	-0.02	-0.01
Savannah St.	ind	0.05	0.03	30.00	31.19	-0.02	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.08	54.55	49.24	0.00	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.06	14.29	15.65	-0.04	-0.04
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.03	68.18	66.65	0.02	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.03	37.50	39.23	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	19.05	24.00	-0.03	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.03	42.86	45.66	-0.01	-0.00
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.03	47.83	44.73	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.03	30.43	30.27	-0.02	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.06	61.90	56.12	0.01	0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.03	86.96	84.62	0.04	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.03	68.42	67.04	0.02	0.01
UCLA	P10	0.05	0.03	47.83	43.79	-0.00	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.03	56.00	55.91	0.01	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.06	22.73	22.60	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	56.52	54.46	0.01	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.03	33.33	30.82	-0.02	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.06	33.33	35.33	-0.02	-0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.06	4.17	4.73	-0.04	-0.05
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.03	39.13	47.65	-0.01	-0.00
North Dakota	GWC	0.05	0.03	15.79	27.84	-0.03	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.06	52.00	49.34	0.00	-0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	66.67	67.74	0.02	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.03	8.70	9.54	-0.04	-0.02
South Dakota	GWC	0.05	0.03	50.00	60.53	0.00	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.06	54.55	54.05	0.00	0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.03	39.13	41.19	-0.01	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.03	56.52	58.43	0.01	0.00
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.06	30.43	32.48	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.03	52.38	49.31	0.00	-0.00
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.05	0.06	8.70	11.46	-0.04	-0.04
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.06	35.00	38.23	-0.01	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.03	16.67	19.94	-0.03	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.03	66.67	64.02	0.02	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.06	68.18	68.72	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.03	36.36	38.12	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	Horz	0.00	0.03	83.33	83.91	0.00	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.00	0.03	22.73	21.40	-0.00	-0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.00	0.03	39.13	43.30	-0.00	-0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.00	0.03	21.05	24.96	-0.00	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.00	0.03	72.73	71.91	0.00	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.00	0.03	50.00	49.78	0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.00	0.03	81.82	83.61	0.00	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.00	0.03	95.65	91.32	0.00	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.00	0.10	47.62	48.61	-0.00	-0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.00	0.06	47.62	48.65	-0.00	-0.00
New Orleans	SB	0.00	0.06	22.73	22.86	-0.00	-0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.00	0.03	66.67	69.41	0.00	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.00	0.03	34.78	32.23	-0.00	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.00	0.03	28.57	31.03	-0.00	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.00	0.03	27.27	25.82	-0.00	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.00	0.03	45.45	44.03	-0.00	-0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.00	0.09	54.17	55.99	0.00	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.00	0.03	60.87	57.71	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.00	0.03	50.00	50.99	0.00	0.00

BY END-OF-SEASON WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
Central Florida	CUSA	26.23	26.16	45.16	42.16	-2.54	-4.10
Rice	CUSA	2.66	4.05	33.33	30.62	-0.89	-1.57
East Carolina	CUSA	2.61	4.05	21.05	22.79	-1.51	-2.20
Marshall	CUSA	2.66	4.05	65.00	63.31	0.80	1.08
Tulsa	CUSA	5.04	4.02	75.00	68.85	2.52	1.52
Houston	CUSA	2.77	4.02	50.00	52.23	0.00	0.18
Southern Methodist	CUSA	2.65	2.44	42.11	41.88	-0.42	-0.40
Tulane	CUSA	0.45	2.42	31.82	29.61	-0.16	-0.99
Memphis	CUSA	0.39	2.42	69.57	69.17	0.15	0.93
Texas El Paso	CUSA	2.71	2.41	76.19	74.82	1.42	1.20
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.34	2.38	55.56	54.77	0.04	0.23
UAB	CUSA	0.39	2.36	82.61	78.67	0.26	1.35
Notre Dame	BE	2.59	1.87	69.57	62.17	1.01	0.46
Mississippi	SEC	2.49	1.84	72.73	71.58	1.13	0.80
South Florida	BE	2.54	1.84	63.64	60.87	0.69	0.40
Howard	MEAC	2.49	1.81	26.09	27.53	-1.19	-0.81
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	2.48	1.81	57.89	55.60	0.39	0.20
Auburn	SEC	2.48	1.81	47.62	44.09	-0.12	-0.21
Connecticut	BE	2.43	1.81	59.09	55.04	0.44	0.18
Niagara	MAAC	2.48	1.78	50.00	50.23	0.00	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	2.44	1.75	54.55	58.46	0.22	0.30
Liberty	BSth	2.43	1.75	45.00	43.11	-0.24	-0.24
Massachusetts	A10	2.38	1.75	33.33	32.77	-0.79	-0.60
Albany	AE	2.38	1.72	24.00	26.63	-1.24	-0.81
Drake	MVC	2.38	1.72	45.83	44.64	-0.20	-0.18
Troy	SB	0.22	0.24	47.62	50.38	-0.01	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.22	0.21	25.00	34.68	-0.11	-0.06
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.17	0.21	69.57	68.48	0.07	0.08
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.21	0.20	39.13	35.38	-0.05	-0.06
Cincinnati	BE	0.20	0.20	60.87	55.54	0.04	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.16	0.18	47.83	47.55	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.21	0.17	86.36	82.20	0.15	0.11
High Point	BSth	0.17	0.15	42.86	44.37	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.11	0.15	47.62	44.73	-0.01	-0.02
Texas Christian	MWC	0.17	0.15	40.91	38.27	-0.03	-0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.17	0.15	81.82	75.66	0.11	0.08
Hampton	MEAC	0.16	0.15	31.82	42.24	-0.06	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.11	0.15	19.05	22.94	-0.07	-0.08
Binghamton	AE	0.20	0.15	39.13	38.63	-0.04	-0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.21	0.14	23.81	27.28	-0.11	-0.07
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.14	52.17	48.47	0.00	-0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.21	0.14	66.67	64.62	0.07	0.04
Syracuse	BE	0.15	0.14	95.83	91.37	0.13	0.12
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.12	0.12	77.27	77.12	0.06	0.07
Old Dominion	CAA	0.17	0.12	72.00	73.54	0.08	0.06
Campbell	ASun	0.11	0.12	57.14	58.76	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.11	0.12	54.55	55.07	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.17	0.12	29.17	28.85	-0.07	-0.05
North Florida	ASun	0.15	0.12	43.48	45.31	-0.02	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.12	91.30	88.21	0.09	0.09
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.16	0.12	40.00	42.64	-0.03	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.16	0.12	50.00	50.96	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.11	0.12	52.17	54.94	0.00	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.11	0.12	22.73	24.05	-0.06	-0.06
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.11	0.12	26.32	31.51	-0.05	-0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.11	0.12	27.27	29.40	-0.05	-0.05
Nevada	WAC	0.16	0.12	57.14	60.54	0.02	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.14	0.12	44.00	45.15	-0.02	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.21	0.12	59.09	54.41	0.04	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.11	0.11	56.52	54.14	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.16	0.11	47.83	42.90	-0.01	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.16	0.11	57.14	57.47	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.11	77.27	73.36	0.06	0.05
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.16	0.11	23.81	28.38	-0.08	-0.05
Providence	BE	0.15	0.11	52.17	46.62	0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.11	90.91	82.52	0.08	0.07
IUPUI	Sum	0.15	0.11	65.22	67.00	0.05	0.04
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.11	65.22	62.07	0.03	0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.19	0.11	72.00	70.73	0.08	0.05
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.00	0.10	47.62	48.61	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.12	0.10	69.57	66.88	0.05	0.03
North Carolina Central	ind	0.12	0.09	4.76	9.78	-0.11	-0.08
Charlotte	A10	0.11	0.09	78.26	71.72	0.06	0.04
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.11	0.09	40.00	40.09	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.09	76.19	73.20	0.03	0.04
Buffalo	MAC	0.16	0.09	55.00	52.00	0.02	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.11	0.09	47.06	50.65	-0.01	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.09	56.52	51.96	0.01	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.09	52.94	56.30	0.00	0.01
Winston Salem St.	ind	0.11	0.09	29.41	29.63	-0.04	-0.04
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.09	47.83	46.36	-0.00	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.11	0.09	59.09	51.13	0.02	0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.00	0.09	54.17	55.99	0.00	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.09	50.00	53.75	0.00	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.11	0.09	33.33	33.43	-0.04	-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.11	0.09	47.37	52.55	-0.01	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.11	0.09	73.68	75.41	0.05	0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.09	56.52	50.47	0.01	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.10	0.09	43.48	39.42	-0.01	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.11	0.09	82.61	78.76	0.07	0.05
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.11	0.09	33.33	39.38	-0.04	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.09	73.91	67.72	0.02	0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.10	0.09	70.83	73.80	0.04	0.04
Arkansas St.	SB	0.11	0.09	57.14	57.10	0.02	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.09	47.62	45.44	-0.00	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.11	0.09	66.67	57.29	0.04	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.15	0.09	37.50	38.45	-0.04	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.09	82.61	82.33	0.03	0.06
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.11	0.09	47.62	49.36	-0.01	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.16	0.09	95.65	88.67	0.14	0.07
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.16	0.09	47.83	44.39	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.08	34.78	33.89	-0.03	-0.03
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.08	65.22	66.09	0.02	0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.10	0.08	73.91	70.80	0.05	0.04
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.08	54.55	49.24	0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.14	0.08	69.57	66.00	0.06	0.03
Boston University	AE	0.14	0.08	54.17	57.70	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.10	0.08	69.57	64.51	0.04	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.14	0.08	66.67	63.46	0.05	0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.14	0.08	50.00	51.56	0.00	0.00
Maine	AE	0.10	0.08	63.64	61.86	0.03	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.09	0.08	83.33	81.25	0.06	0.05
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.06	0.06	80.95	82.07	0.04	0.04
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	20.00	23.58	-0.03	-0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.06	33.33	37.71	-0.02	-0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.06	21.74	24.84	-0.03	-0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.11	0.06	12.50	15.31	-0.09	-0.04
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	52.38	56.23	0.00	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.91	0.00	0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.11	0.06	21.05	22.43	-0.07	-0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.06	76.19	71.14	0.03	0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.11	0.06	52.38	54.80	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	SB	0.00	0.06	22.73	22.86	-0.00	-0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.06	0.06	62.50	57.74	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.12	0.06	36.84	36.82	-0.03	-0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.00	0.06	47.62	48.65	-0.00	-0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	68.18	62.73	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.11	0.06	69.57	67.93	0.04	0.02
Arizona	P10	0.05	0.06	52.17	53.65	0.00	0.00
Belmont	ASun	0.10	0.06	60.00	63.83	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.05	0.06	42.86	41.05	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.10	0.06	52.17	56.48	0.00	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.06	82.61	75.26	0.04	0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.06	42.86	42.46	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.11	0.06	61.90	56.37	0.03	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	22.22	26.51	-0.03	-0.03
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.06	61.90	63.69	0.01	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.06	86.36	81.50	0.04	0.04
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.06	30.43	29.01	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.06	39.13	36.57	-0.01	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.06	33.33	34.27	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.06	18.18	21.04	-0.07	-0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.06	14.29	15.65	-0.04	-0.04
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.06	0.06	55.56	58.32	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.80	-0.01	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.11	0.06	11.11	20.93	-0.08	-0.03
Davidson	SC	0.11	0.06	47.62	50.81	-0.01	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.11	0.06	73.91	69.49	0.05	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.10	0.06	35.00	30.59	-0.03	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.10	0.06	0.00	5.15	-0.10	-0.05
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.06	61.90	56.12	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.11	0.06	20.00	20.57	-0.06	-0.03
Colorado	B12	0.11	0.06	42.86	40.56	-0.02	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.11	0.06	24.00	23.74	-0.06	-0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	38.10	41.29	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.06	69.57	70.29	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B12	0.11	0.06	56.52	50.42	0.01	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.11	0.06	69.57	63.55	0.04	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.11	0.06	54.17	58.55	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.10	0.06	45.45	47.48	-0.01	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.06	40.91	34.84	-0.02	-0.02
American	Pat	0.10	0.06	30.43	32.39	-0.04	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.10	0.06	52.17	55.04	0.00	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.10	0.06	52.17	50.21	0.00	0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.10	0.06	50.00	50.68	0.00	0.00