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Through games of Jan 24, 2015.


Alabama A&M

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:326.6
Current RPI:321
Expected SOS:346
Current SOS:307
Current Record:3-12
Expected Record:8-19
Current Conf Record:3-3
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-11
Current OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC RPI:330
Expected OOC SOS:120



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-14267.80.09%
12-15283.80.77%
11-16298.93.34%
10-17311.010.15%
9-18320.020.52%
8-19327.627.65%
7-20334.422.53%
6-21340.111.18%
5-22344.23.28%
4-23346.80.45%
3-24348.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Dayton (38.4)A10A76-52L0%0.0
11-18Georgia Tech (113.1)ACCA66-46L0%0.0
11-25Jacksonville St. (306.2)OVCH61-67L0%0.0
11-29Southeast Missouri St. (269.4)OVCA85-51L0%0.0
12-6Bowling Green (70.1)MACA64-47L0%0.0
12-14Virginia Tech (221.2)ACCA65-55L0%0.0
12-19Marquette (119.8)BEA83-49L0%0.0
12-22Western Michigan (129.4)MACA71-62L0%0.0
12-30Murray St. (73.8)OVCA76-39L0%0.0
1-3Jackson St. (308.0)SWACH67-70L0%0.0
1-5Grambling St. (349.1)SWACH67-46W100%0.0
1-10Mississippi Valley St. (346.9)SWACA73-86W100%0.0
1-12Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.5)SWACA48-51W100%0.0
1-17Alabama St. (224.7)SWACH56-59L0%0.0
1-24Southern (242.7)SWACH58-65L0%0.0
1-26Alcorn St. (339.6)SWACH0-073%6.7
1-31Prairie View A&M (293.2)SWACA0-023%-8.2
2-2Texas Southern (143.6)SWACA0-09%-15.1
2-7Mississippi Valley St. (346.9)SWACH0-086%12.0
2-14Alabama St. (224.7)SWACA0-012%-13.1
2-19Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.5)SWACH0-060%2.7
2-21Southern (242.7)SWACA0-016%-10.8
2-23Alcorn St. (339.6)SWACA0-050%-0.1
2-28Prairie View A&M (293.2)SWACH0-045%-1.4
3-2Texas Southern (143.6)SWACH0-023%-8.3
3-5Jackson St. (308.0)SWACA0-026%-7.1
3-7Grambling St. (349.1)SWACA0-076%7.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alabama A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alabama A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Alabama A&MSWAC26.4126.4324.6433.08-13.40-8.95
Alcorn St.SWAC0.584.7517.6522.22-0.38-2.64
Alabama St.SWAC3.784.7458.3363.120.631.24
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC3.644.7311.1115.82-2.83-3.24
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC3.644.7326.3233.48-1.73-1.56
Jackson St.SWAC3.674.7321.0534.78-2.12-1.44
Texas SouthernSWAC0.374.7342.1154.96-0.060.47
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.374.7322.2235.82-0.21-1.34
SouthernSWAC3.704.7229.4142.26-1.52-0.73
Grambling St.SWAC3.644.710.006.71-3.64-4.08
Murray St.OVC3.422.0277.7880.031.901.21
Jacksonville St.OVC3.641.9931.5829.29-1.34-0.83
Southeast Missouri St.OVC3.521.9835.2938.22-1.04-0.47
Bowling GreenMAC3.511.9573.3369.961.640.78
Georgia TechACC3.511.9447.0643.68-0.21-0.25
DaytonA103.531.9283.3378.352.351.09
Western MichiganMAC3.331.8862.5055.390.830.20
MarquetteBE3.431.8850.0044.830.00-0.19
Virginia TechACC3.331.8841.1832.43-0.59-0.66
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.260.2357.8956.220.040.03
OhioMAC0.190.2241.1838.69-0.03-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.310.2037.5037.47-0.08-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.260.2058.8257.870.050.03
TCUB120.200.1973.6861.590.090.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.1943.7538.83-0.01-0.04
AkronMAC0.380.1966.6762.710.130.05
BaylorB120.090.1977.7871.550.050.08
HawaiiBW0.180.1863.1657.340.050.03
TulaneAmer0.260.1863.1653.870.070.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.170.1735.2934.93-0.05-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.080.1727.7828.23-0.04-0.07
Notre DameACC0.390.1690.0082.690.310.11
Air ForceMWC0.280.1635.2936.78-0.08-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.280.1633.3329.95-0.09-0.06
DrakeMVC0.370.1616.6718.13-0.25-0.10
Central MichiganMAC0.080.1578.5774.650.050.08
HoustonAmer0.260.1536.8435.27-0.07-0.04
Michigan St.B100.170.1565.0063.990.050.04
ArkansasSEC0.310.1478.9572.060.180.06
BelmontOVC0.180.1361.1161.640.040.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.180.1352.9458.930.010.02
Morehead St.OVC0.260.1335.0043.95-0.08-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.180.135.5610.98-0.16-0.10
Tennessee TechOVC0.180.1342.1145.74-0.03-0.01
Oregon St.P120.200.1372.2262.220.090.03
BuffaloMAC0.100.1366.6765.570.030.04
MississippiSEC0.270.1363.1663.590.070.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.190.1353.3353.290.010.01
Iowa St.B120.180.1277.7868.130.100.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.180.1273.6872.630.080.06
NorthwesternB100.280.1252.6343.260.01-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.090.1235.2933.29-0.03-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.170.1264.7156.740.050.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.1265.0061.690.030.03
Texas TechB120.080.1255.0041.160.01-0.02
IndianaB100.090.1278.9568.920.050.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.170.1270.5977.580.070.07
EvansvilleMVC0.220.1173.6869.120.100.04
North DakotaBSky0.220.1025.0032.97-0.11-0.04
George WashingtonA100.110.1080.0071.470.070.04
San DiegoWCC0.290.1045.0045.94-0.03-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.100.1072.2264.420.050.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.180.1057.8956.190.030.01
ToledoMAC0.200.1057.8959.450.030.02
XavierBE0.180.0965.0063.100.050.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0963.1661.620.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.190.0933.3332.50-0.06-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.180.0983.3376.670.120.05
JacksonvilleASun0.170.0921.0521.36-0.10-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0947.0640.34-0.01-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0957.8948.810.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.090.0980.0075.860.060.05
Wake ForestACC0.090.0945.0040.42-0.01-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.170.0978.9578.160.100.05
Florida St.ACC0.090.0950.0044.230.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0973.6870.620.000.04
SyracuseACC0.190.0970.0058.840.070.02
TennesseeSEC0.090.0966.6754.630.030.01
VirginiaACC0.090.09100.0094.460.090.08
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.130.0727.7828.15-0.06-0.03
UtahP120.130.0782.3583.030.080.05
Western IllinoisSum0.130.0731.2527.90-0.05-0.03
PurdueB100.110.0760.0056.940.020.01
WashingtonP120.110.0777.7865.930.060.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.180.0740.0037.49-0.04-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0755.0045.750.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0742.1141.54-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0765.0063.320.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0725.0025.62-0.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0761.1160.500.000.01
TexasB120.000.0773.6868.840.000.02
TroySB0.000.0731.2531.36-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0763.1668.460.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.190.0770.5967.460.080.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.190.0652.6355.510.010.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0660.0056.670.020.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0642.1147.26-0.01-0.00
WyomingMWC0.090.0683.3376.420.060.03
BrownIvy0.000.0641.1838.09-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0670.0069.080.000.02
CreightonBE0.090.0645.0039.23-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.090.0652.3843.130.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.090.0629.4127.40-0.04-0.03
FordhamA100.090.0625.0024.65-0.04-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.180.0673.6867.990.080.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0666.6758.710.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.090.0675.0065.770.040.02
Rhode IslandA100.090.0668.7568.430.030.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0626.6730.45-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.090.0644.4437.39-0.01-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0668.7575.250.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.0672.2262.360.000.02
St. John'sBE0.090.0670.5961.580.040.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0681.2584.470.000.04
Texas St.SB0.000.0643.7545.87-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.0689.4783.810.000.04
La SalleA100.090.0652.6352.930.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.190.0644.4441.09-0.02-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0688.8982.600.000.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.180.0620.0027.15-0.11-0.03
PittsburghACC0.090.0666.6755.160.030.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0650.0040.150.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0670.5973.720.000.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0652.6353.780.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.0695.0094.580.000.05
HofstraCAA0.080.0666.6770.410.030.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0660.0047.800.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0640.0038.39-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0647.0654.29-0.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0661.1158.450.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0644.4434.89-0.01-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0650.0062.000.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0655.0061.960.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0615.7926.55-0.06-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0678.9577.540.000.03
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0625.0022.97-0.04-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0650.0043.330.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.080.0647.3749.76-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0637.5032.90-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0626.3236.33-0.04-0.02
High PointBSth0.080.0670.5968.470.030.02
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0623.5327.70-0.04-0.03
StanfordP120.080.0673.6869.340.040.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.030.003.89-0.09-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0325.0025.40-0.05-0.02
MissouriSEC0.090.0333.3330.04-0.03-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0333.3334.70-0.03-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0323.5344.31-0.05-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.100.035.5611.58-0.09-0.03
DetroitHorz0.100.0342.1145.89-0.02-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0361.1161.280.020.01
PortlandWCC0.090.0352.6349.040.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.100.0344.4444.57-0.01-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.080.0350.0050.790.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.100.0342.1151.89-0.020.00
MarshallCUSA0.080.0316.6723.15-0.06-0.02
New HampshireAE0.100.0350.0053.010.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.100.0366.6767.030.030.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0343.7552.34-0.010.00
OaklandHorz0.100.0333.3340.27-0.03-0.01
PacificWCC0.100.0338.8934.81-0.02-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.100.030.002.08-0.10-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0317.6526.23-0.05-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0337.5045.85-0.02-0.00
WinthropBSth0.080.0343.7548.25-0.01-0.00
Arizona St.P120.090.0350.0052.250.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0338.8942.70-0.02-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0342.1151.52-0.010.00
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0358.8260.180.020.01
DavidsonA100.090.0376.4776.560.050.02
George MasonA100.000.0329.4131.61-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0372.2265.330.040.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0315.7918.63-0.06-0.02
IPFWSum0.090.0335.2937.84-0.03-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0352.6353.030.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0338.8940.90-0.02-0.01
NJITind0.090.0350.0051.930.000.00
Ohio St.B100.090.0375.0076.160.040.02
RichmondA100.090.0352.6355.870.000.00
RiderMAAC0.090.0361.9062.350.020.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0344.4439.74-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0372.2263.510.040.01
USC UpstateASun0.090.0361.1162.930.020.01
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0355.5654.000.010.00
VCUA100.000.0384.2180.710.000.02
WisconsinB100.090.0390.0087.110.070.02
LibertyBSth0.090.0311.7617.50-0.07-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0352.3857.180.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0389.4782.920.070.02
Penn St.B100.090.0365.0051.740.030.00
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0317.6518.13-0.06-0.02
RadfordBSth0.090.0361.1161.370.020.01
The CitadelSC0.090.0329.4131.59-0.04-0.01
VMISC0.090.0331.5837.61-0.03-0.01
West VirginiaB120.090.0384.2174.830.060.01