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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Alabama A&M

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:330.0
Current RPI:330
Expected SOS:348
Current SOS:348
Current Record:8-20
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-12
Current OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC RPI:337
Expected OOC SOS:166



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-20330.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Dayton (32.0)A10A76-52L0%0.0
11-18Georgia Tech (153.0)ACCA66-46L0%0.0
11-25Jacksonville St. (304.0)OVCH61-67L0%0.0
11-29Southeast Missouri St. (289.0)OVCA85-51L0%0.0
12-6Bowling Green (109.0)MACA64-47L0%0.0
12-14Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCA65-55L0%0.0
12-19Marquette (147.0)BEA83-49L0%0.0
12-22Western Michigan (119.0)MACA71-62L0%0.0
12-30Murray St. (63.0)OVCA76-39L0%0.0
1-3Jackson St. (322.0)SWACH67-70L0%0.0
1-5Grambling St. (351.0)SWACH67-46W100%0.0
1-10Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACA73-86W100%0.0
1-12Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACA48-51W100%0.0
1-17Alabama St. (258.0)SWACH56-59L0%0.0
1-24Southern (223.0)SWACH58-65L0%0.0
1-26Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACH78-66W100%0.0
1-31Prairie View A&M (262.0)SWACA89-63L0%0.0
2-2Texas Southern (120.0)SWACA68-65L0%0.0
2-7Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACH74-68W100%0.0
2-9Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACH42-56L0%0.0
2-14Alabama St. (258.0)SWACA71-80W100%0.0
2-21Southern (223.0)SWACA72-63L0%0.0
2-23Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACA69-73W100%0.0
2-28Prairie View A&M (262.0)SWACH72-75L0%0.0
3-2Texas Southern (120.0)SWACH75-77L0%0.0
3-5Jackson St. (322.0)SWACA72-54L0%0.0
3-7Grambling St. (351.0)SWACA66-70W100%0.0
3-12Southern (223.0)SWACN64-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alabama A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alabama A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Alabama A&MSWAC26.4526.4532.8432.84-9.08-9.08
SouthernSWAC6.416.4141.3841.38-1.11-1.11
Texas SouthernSWAC4.774.7762.5062.501.191.19
Alabama St.SWAC4.714.7164.0064.001.321.32
Alcorn St.SWAC4.704.7017.8617.86-3.02-3.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC4.674.6740.0040.00-0.93-0.93
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC4.634.6320.0020.00-2.78-2.78
Jackson St.SWAC4.624.6230.0030.00-1.85-1.85
Grambling St.SWAC4.604.600.000.00-4.60-4.60
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.564.5636.6736.67-1.22-1.22
Murray St.OVC1.941.9482.7682.761.271.27
Jacksonville St.OVC1.911.9132.1432.14-0.68-0.68
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.911.9137.0437.04-0.49-0.49
Bowling GreenMAC1.871.8765.5265.520.580.58
Georgia TechACC1.871.8736.6736.67-0.50-0.50
DaytonA101.841.8475.0075.000.920.92
Western MichiganMAC1.821.8256.6756.670.240.24
MarquetteBE1.811.8138.7138.71-0.41-0.41
Virginia TechACC1.811.8131.2531.25-0.68-0.68
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.240.2451.7251.720.010.01
OhioMAC0.230.2333.3333.33-0.08-0.08
Ball St.MAC0.210.2120.6920.69-0.12-0.12
AkronMAC0.200.2058.8258.820.040.04
TulaneAmer0.200.2046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.200.2060.6160.610.040.04
BaylorB120.190.1971.8871.880.080.08
Morehead St.OVC0.180.1846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.180.1857.1457.140.030.03
TCUB120.180.1854.5554.550.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.170.1744.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.150.1521.4321.43-0.09-0.09
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.150.1538.4638.46-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
Air ForceMWC0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.150.1585.2985.290.110.11
Eastern MichiganMAC0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
DrakeMVC0.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Central MichiganMAC0.140.1471.4371.430.060.06
MississippiSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
Louisiana TechCUSA0.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
St. BonaventureA100.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
Michigan St.B100.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.120.1260.7160.710.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.1210.3410.34-0.10-0.10
Tennessee TechOVC0.120.1235.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Oregon St.P120.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1152.9452.940.010.01
NorthwesternB100.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1175.8675.860.060.06
North TexasCUSA0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
IndianaB100.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
George WashingtonA100.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
ToledoMAC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0924.1424.14-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
XavierBE0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
ClemsonACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
MinnesotaB100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Seton HallBE0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
VillanovaBE0.080.0894.1294.120.070.07
WyomingMWC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
SyracuseACC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
VirginiaACC0.080.0890.6290.620.070.07
TennesseeSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
WashingtonP120.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0723.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
CaliforniaP120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
TexasB120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
TroySB0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
PittsburghACC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
High PointBSth0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
HofstraCAA0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
RiceCUSA0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
StanfordP120.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0686.6786.670.040.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.030.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
FloridaSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.9493.940.050.05
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01