live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


Alabama A&M

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:306.8
Current RPI:325
Expected SOS:351
Current SOS:351
Current Record:7-12
Expected Record:11-15
Current Conf Record:4-7
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-8
Current OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC RPI:222
Expected OOC SOS:313



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-12259.21.23%
13-13278.110.73%
12-14295.627.11%
11-15310.732.68%
10-16323.420.65%
9-17332.86.66%
8-18339.50.89%
7-19343.80.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Tulane (243.6)AmerA67-68W100%0.0
11-19Southeast Missouri St. (332.1)OVCH74-56W100%0.0
11-24Jacksonville St. (304.6)OVCA69-73W100%0.0
11-28Murray St. (186.9)OVCA63-61L0%0.0
12-12Saint Louis (201.5)A10A75-58L0%0.0
12-16Western Kentucky (174.9)CUSAA79-70L0%0.0
12-22Evansville (74.7)MVCA91-70L0%0.0
12-29Ball St. (156.5)MACA63-62L0%0.0
1-2Grambling St. (346.3)SWACA81-78L0%0.0
1-4Jackson St. (217.9)SWACA67-66L0%0.0
1-9Arkansas Pine Bluff (314.0)SWACH85-70W100%0.0
1-11Mississippi Valley St. (323.1)SWACH73-79L0%0.0
1-16Alabama St. (303.9)SWACA75-80W100%0.0
1-23Alcorn St. (281.1)SWACA63-58L0%0.0
1-25Southern (179.4)SWACA73-52L0%0.0
1-30Prairie View A&M (344.1)SWACH83-69W100%0.0
2-1Texas Southern (195.0)SWACH68-71L0%0.0
2-6Arkansas Pine Bluff (314.0)SWACA66-71W100%0.0
2-8Mississippi Valley St. (323.1)SWACA66-64L0%0.0
2-13Alabama St. (303.9)SWACH0-070%5.6
2-20Alcorn St. (281.1)SWACH0-081%9.5
2-22Southern (179.4)SWACH0-045%-1.4
2-27Texas Southern (195.0)SWACA0-019%-9.4
2-29Prairie View A&M (344.1)SWACA0-062%3.3
3-3Grambling St. (346.3)SWACH0-089%13.1
3-5Jackson St. (217.9)SWACH0-050%0.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alabama A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alabama A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Alabama A&MSWAC26.3226.4545.6847.11-2.27-1.53
Alabama St.SWAC3.544.9630.0034.78-1.41-1.51
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC5.924.9513.0417.14-4.38-3.25
Prairie View A&MSWAC3.334.949.5216.99-2.70-3.26
SouthernSWAC3.404.9360.0064.360.681.42
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC5.874.9226.0927.40-2.81-2.22
Texas SouthernSWAC3.284.9142.8651.52-0.470.15
Jackson St.SWAC3.354.9047.6252.68-0.160.26
Alcorn St.SWAC3.344.8936.8438.76-0.88-1.10
Grambling St.SWAC3.344.8910.5315.06-2.64-3.42
EvansvilleMVC2.922.1273.9175.411.401.08
Jacksonville St.OVC2.812.0626.0925.22-1.35-1.02
Murray St.OVC2.802.0642.8647.76-0.40-0.09
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.802.0614.2916.39-2.00-1.38
TulaneAmer2.752.0634.7833.39-0.84-0.68
Ball St.MAC2.631.9261.9057.820.630.30
Saint LouisA102.631.9233.3331.18-0.88-0.72
Western KentuckyCUSA2.631.9242.8644.36-0.38-0.22
Louisiana TechCUSA0.250.3071.4368.720.110.11
Tennessee St.OVC0.310.2866.6762.630.100.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.300.2847.8350.14-0.010.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.340.2668.1866.690.120.09
MemphisAmer0.240.2460.8760.780.050.05
Virginia TechACC0.290.2354.1749.230.02-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.230.2140.9143.53-0.04-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.230.2117.3920.66-0.15-0.12
BelmontOVC0.290.2066.6766.540.100.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.290.2052.0050.240.010.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.230.2082.6181.140.150.12
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.230.2015.0026.98-0.16-0.09
BaylorB120.180.1972.7366.460.080.06
Central MichiganMAC0.170.1950.0051.190.000.00
OhioMAC0.220.1961.9059.450.050.04
NebraskaB100.270.1854.1751.850.020.01
Austin PeayOVC0.170.1837.5040.54-0.04-0.03
MercerSC0.180.1769.5769.090.070.07
Morehead St.OVC0.230.1750.0052.350.000.01
UABCUSA0.180.1782.6179.410.120.10
Southern IllinoisMVC0.230.1772.0070.510.100.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.180.1640.9140.65-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.170.1669.5766.530.070.05
Indiana St.MVC0.290.1652.1751.960.010.01
DuquesneA100.280.1663.6456.440.080.02
MarquetteBE0.130.1462.5056.200.030.02
Chicago St.WAC0.180.134.357.73-0.16-0.11
East CarolinaAmer0.070.1343.4842.00-0.01-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1331.5831.99-0.04-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.120.1331.8230.47-0.04-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.170.1325.0033.17-0.08-0.04
DrakeMVC0.170.1321.7423.66-0.10-0.07
VCUA100.120.1373.9173.910.060.06
HawaiiBW0.210.1284.2181.700.140.08
SeattleWAC0.210.1247.6245.00-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.130.1052.1751.940.010.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1071.4369.420.050.04
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1086.9686.690.090.07
WinthropBSth0.120.1065.0063.440.040.03
ArkansasSEC0.120.1052.1755.940.010.01
DaytonA100.120.1086.3682.380.090.06
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1054.1750.940.010.00
Missouri St.MVC0.170.1039.1337.73-0.04-0.02
UTSACUSA0.120.1013.6413.62-0.09-0.07
BradleyMVC0.110.1012.5012.85-0.09-0.07
Wichita St.MVC0.170.1072.7376.360.080.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1072.2275.580.050.05
North TexasCUSA0.170.0933.3333.02-0.06-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.160.0930.4331.18-0.06-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.160.0970.8370.840.070.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0725.0025.09-0.03-0.04
IndianaB100.070.0779.1774.020.040.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0729.1733.14-0.03-0.02
OaklandHorz0.070.0768.0067.980.020.03
Ohio St.B100.070.0758.3354.120.010.01
PortlandWCC0.070.0740.0038.51-0.01-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0766.6770.550.020.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.0739.1338.57-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0760.0060.100.010.01
ElonCAA0.060.0752.1750.420.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0756.5256.320.010.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0743.4842.49-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.120.0752.3847.040.01-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.120.0756.5257.280.020.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0742.8639.19-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0734.7840.93-0.02-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0750.0051.180.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0756.5262.790.010.02
OregonP120.060.0782.6179.220.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0738.1037.70-0.01-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.120.0779.1776.080.070.03
BryantNEC0.060.0625.0026.39-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.060.0658.3358.410.010.01
CreightonBE0.060.0662.5059.800.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0636.8441.40-0.02-0.01
George MasonA100.060.0634.7834.14-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0636.3638.93-0.02-0.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0660.8760.760.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0643.4842.62-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0660.8763.000.010.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0663.1658.810.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0654.1755.070.000.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0650.0051.290.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.060.0671.4368.950.030.02
SyracuseACC0.060.0666.6762.580.020.02
TCUB120.060.0645.8339.31-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0638.8938.50-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0659.0960.100.010.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0650.0055.190.000.01
Washington St.P120.060.0636.3631.98-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.120.0633.3335.47-0.04-0.02
WisconsinB100.060.0660.8755.840.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.110.0627.7834.19-0.05-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.110.0673.9172.490.050.03
SMUAmer0.050.0690.9186.160.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.110.0620.0019.67-0.07-0.04
TulsaAmer0.110.0665.2261.430.030.01
UCFAmer0.050.0652.3845.690.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.110.0645.4538.46-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.110.0654.1754.570.010.01
BYUWCC0.110.0666.6769.510.040.02
Iowa St.B120.110.0673.9170.050.050.02
Michigan St.B100.110.0683.3383.030.070.04
MissouriSEC0.110.0634.7830.38-0.03-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.0665.2268.620.030.02
NorthwesternB100.110.0666.6763.440.040.02
Oklahoma St.B120.110.0645.8342.26-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.0628.0030.74-0.05-0.02
Texas TechB120.110.0659.0953.170.020.00
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0461.9056.690.010.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0459.0959.640.010.01
MississippiSEC0.060.0465.2259.020.020.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0433.3335.08-0.02-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0414.2915.45-0.04-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.060.0465.0069.270.020.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0456.5257.000.010.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0359.0953.040.010.00
DetroitHorz0.060.0347.6245.85-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.060.0340.9145.29-0.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0322.7327.19-0.03-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0350.0049.850.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0328.5726.96-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.060.0328.5729.68-0.03-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0341.6742.60-0.01-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.060.0381.8282.630.040.02
XavierBE0.060.0391.3084.340.050.02
AkronMAC0.060.0381.8280.030.040.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0359.0958.870.010.01
DavidsonA100.060.0360.0057.950.010.01
FordhamA100.000.0355.0052.260.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0361.9059.630.010.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0378.2674.430.030.02
HartfordAE0.060.0325.0026.76-0.03-0.01
IUPUISum0.060.0340.0039.79-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.060.0360.8758.370.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0363.6459.460.020.01
La SalleA100.000.0320.0020.45-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.060.0322.7324.96-0.03-0.02
MassachusettsA100.060.0340.9139.35-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0343.4850.66-0.010.00
North FloridaASun0.060.0365.2267.160.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0375.0070.940.030.01
Rhode IslandA100.060.0356.5256.630.010.00
RichmondA100.000.0354.5554.490.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0382.6178.890.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0352.1754.150.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0337.5043.36-0.01-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0372.7371.620.020.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0381.8283.040.040.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0326.0929.19-0.03-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0352.1751.630.000.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0334.7836.50-0.02-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0382.6178.660.040.02
TempleAmer0.000.0363.6459.840.000.01