Alabama A&M

Conference:	SWAC
Expected RPI:	342.0
Current RPI:	342
Expected SOS:	342
Current SOS:	342
Current Record:	5-21
Expected Record:	5-21
Current Conf Record:	5-14
Expected Conf Record:	5-14
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-13
Current OOC Record:	0-7
Expected OOC Record:	0-7
Expected OOC RPI:	313
Expected OOC SOS:	87

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
5-21	342.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Tulane (250.0)	CUSA	A	72-63	L	0%
11-23	Alabama (36.0)	SEC	A	82-45	L	0%
12-3	South Alabama (169.0)	SB	A	67-44	L	0%
12-17	Michigan (14.0)	B10	A	87-57	L	0%
12-19	Georgia Tech (197.0)	ACC	A	65-54	L	0%
12-21	Tennessee St. (107.0)	OVC	A	78-68	L	0%
12-31	UAB (112.0)	CUSA	A	92-58	L	0%
1-3	Jackson St. (322.0)	SWAC	A	55-52	L	0%
1-5	Grambling (341.0)	SWAC	A	60-55	L	0%
1-7	Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)	SWAC	H	65-62	W	100%
1-9	Mississippi Valley St. (144.0)	SWAC	H	69-81	L	0%
1-14	Alabama St. (308.0)	SWAC	A	53-50	L	0%
1-21	Southern (281.0)	SWAC	A	75-69	L	0%
1-23	Alcorn St. (335.0)	SWAC	A	64-65	W	100%
1-28	Texas Southern (234.0)	SWAC	H	61-73	L	0%
1-30	Prairie View A&M (294.0)	SWAC	H	64-54	W	100%
2-4	Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)	SWAC	A	81-75	L	0%
2-6	Mississippi Valley St. (144.0)	SWAC	A	78-64	L	0%
2-11	Alabama St. (308.0)	SWAC	H	47-57	L	0%
2-18	Southern (281.0)	SWAC	H	65-72	L	0%
2-20	Alcorn St. (335.0)	SWAC	H	81-71	W	100%
2-25	Prairie View A&M (294.0)	SWAC	A	60-52	L	0%
2-27	Texas Southern (234.0)	SWAC	A	69-59	L	0%
3-1	Jackson St. (322.0)	SWAC	H	73-53	W	100%
3-3	Grambling (341.0)	SWAC	H	72-75	L	0%
3-7	Texas Southern (234.0)	SWAC	N	75-62	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Alabama A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Alabama A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Alabama A&M	SWAC	26.52	26.52	18.27	18.27	-16.83	-16.83
Texas Southern	SWAC	6.93	6.93	40.00	40.00	-1.39	-1.39
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	5.18	5.18	61.29	61.29	1.17	1.17
Alcorn St.	SWAC	5.14	5.14	26.92	26.92	-2.37	-2.37
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	5.10	5.10	32.26	32.26	-1.81	-1.81
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	5.00	5.00	37.04	37.04	-1.30	-1.30
Jackson St.	SWAC	4.99	4.99	17.86	17.86	-3.21	-3.21
Alabama St.	SWAC	4.99	4.99	29.63	29.63	-2.03	-2.03
Southern	SWAC	4.96	4.96	46.15	46.15	-0.38	-0.38
Grambling	SWAC	4.92	4.92	7.69	7.69	-4.16	-4.16
Tulane	CUSA	2.15	2.15	42.86	42.86	-0.31	-0.31
UAB	CUSA	2.02	2.02	46.67	46.67	-0.13	-0.13
South Alabama	SB	2.02	2.02	55.56	55.56	0.22	0.22
Georgia Tech	ACC	1.99	1.99	33.33	33.33	-0.66	-0.66
Michigan	B10	1.98	1.98	70.97	70.97	0.83	0.83
Tennessee St.	OVC	1.98	1.98	58.62	58.62	0.34	0.34
Alabama	SEC	1.95	1.95	64.52	64.52	0.57	0.57
Arkansas	SEC	0.30	0.30	56.25	56.25	0.04	0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.29	0.29	43.33	43.33	-0.04	-0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.24	0.24	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.22	0.22	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.22	0.22	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
Baylor	B12	0.22	0.22	78.79	78.79	0.13	0.13
Florida	SEC	0.21	0.21	69.70	69.70	0.08	0.08
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.20	0.20	74.19	74.19	0.10	0.10
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.19	0.19	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Florida International	SB	0.19	0.19	28.57	28.57	-0.08	-0.08
Memphis	CUSA	0.19	0.19	76.47	76.47	0.10	0.10
Mississippi	SEC	0.19	0.19	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
St. Louis	A10	0.19	0.19	77.42	77.42	0.10	0.10
North Texas	SB	0.17	0.17	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.17	0.17	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.17	0.17	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.16	0.16	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.16	0.16	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Denver	SB	0.16	0.16	70.97	70.97	0.07	0.07
Iowa St.	B12	0.15	0.15	68.75	68.75	0.06	0.06
Ohio St.	B10	0.15	0.15	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
South Carolina	SEC	0.15	0.15	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Michigan St.	B10	0.15	0.15	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Texas A&M	B12	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Troy	SB	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.13	0.13	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.13	0.13	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
Oakland	Sum	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	96.43	96.43	0.12	0.12
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Central Florida	CUSA	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Cincinnati	BE	0.12	0.12	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
North Carolina	ACC	0.12	0.12	85.29	85.29	0.09	0.09
Auburn	SEC	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Western Kentucky	SB	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.10	0.10	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Wofford	SC	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.10	0.10	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.10	0.10	6.90	6.90	-0.08	-0.08
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.09	0.09	82.35	82.35	0.06	0.06
Purdue	B10	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Ball St.	MAC	0.09	0.09	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.07	0.07	30.77	30.77	-0.03	-0.03
Providence	BE	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.07	0.07	34.62	34.62	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Christian	MWC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.07	0.07	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.07	0.07	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Evansville	MVC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	ind	0.07	0.07	22.22	22.22	-0.04	-0.04
Nevada	WAC	0.07	0.07	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.07	0.07	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
California	P12	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	83.33	83.33	0.04	0.04
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	83.87	83.87	0.04	0.04
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.03	-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.03	-0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.03	0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	ASun	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	21.88	21.88	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	94.12	94.12	0.03	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	3.12	3.12	-0.03	-0.03
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00