Alabama A&M

Conference:	SWAC
Expected RPI:	329.0
Current RPI:	329
Expected SOS:	340
Current SOS:	340
Current Record:	9-20
Expected Record:	9-20
Current Conf Record:	7-13
Expected Conf Record:	7-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-8
Current OOC Record:	2-7
Expected OOC Record:	2-7
Expected OOC RPI:	240
Expected OOC SOS:	124

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-20	329.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Iowa St. (41.0)	B12	A	98-40	L	0%
11-15	Jacksonville St. (142.0)	OVC	A	79-61	L	0%
11-26	Evansville (106.0)	MVC	A	72-46	L	0%
12-1	Tennessee St. (105.0)	OVC	H	72-83	L	0%
12-8	Mercer (137.0)	ASun	A	65-46	L	0%
12-15	Vanderbilt (120.0)	SEC	A	71-46	L	0%
12-18	Missouri St. (203.0)	MVC	H	59-47	W	100%
12-22	Arkansas (89.0)	SEC	A	95-68	L	0%
12-30	Mississippi St. (232.0)	SEC	A	57-59	W	100%
1-2	Grambling (347.0)	SWAC	H	78-53	W	100%
1-4	Jackson St. (309.0)	SWAC	H	88-87	W	100%
1-6	Mississippi Valley St. (344.0)	SWAC	A	79-68	L	0%
1-8	Arkansas Pine Bluff (202.0)	SWAC	A	77-61	L	0%
1-12	Alabama St. (328.0)	SWAC	H	64-57	W	100%
1-19	Alcorn St. (311.0)	SWAC	H	59-69	L	0%
1-21	Southern (180.0)	SWAC	H	68-82	L	0%
1-26	Texas Southern (184.0)	SWAC	A	89-56	L	0%
1-28	Prairie View A&M (315.0)	SWAC	A	65-46	L	0%
2-2	Mississippi Valley St. (344.0)	SWAC	H	65-64	W	100%
2-4	Arkansas Pine Bluff (202.0)	SWAC	H	67-76	L	0%
2-9	Alabama St. (328.0)	SWAC	A	69-62	L	0%
2-16	Alcorn St. (311.0)	SWAC	A	65-72	W	100%
2-18	Southern (180.0)	SWAC	A	81-67	L	0%
2-23	Texas Southern (184.0)	SWAC	H	62-64	L	0%
2-25	Prairie View A&M (315.0)	SWAC	H	57-61	L	0%
2-28	Grambling (347.0)	SWAC	A	47-74	W	100%
3-2	Jackson St. (309.0)	SWAC	A	60-57	L	0%
3-13	Grambling (347.0)	SWAC	N	59-51	W	100%
3-15	Southern (180.0)	SWAC	N	72-59	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Alabama A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Alabama A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Alabama A&M	SWAC	26.59	26.59	32.28	32.28	-9.42	-9.42
Southern	SWAC	6.24	6.24	65.38	65.38	1.92	1.92
Grambling	SWAC	6.15	6.15	0.00	0.00	-6.15	-6.15
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	4.70	4.70	34.48	34.48	-1.46	-1.46
Alcorn St.	SWAC	4.64	4.64	26.67	26.67	-2.17	-2.17
Jackson St.	SWAC	4.60	4.60	37.04	37.04	-1.19	-1.19
Alabama St.	SWAC	4.59	4.59	27.59	27.59	-2.06	-2.06
Texas Southern	SWAC	4.50	4.50	51.72	51.72	0.16	0.16
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	4.49	4.49	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	4.49	4.49	15.38	15.38	-3.11	-3.11
Arkansas	SEC	1.88	1.88	58.06	58.06	0.30	0.30
Jacksonville St.	OVC	1.84	1.84	56.00	56.00	0.22	0.22
Evansville	MVC	1.84	1.84	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
Vanderbilt	SEC	1.83	1.83	46.88	46.88	-0.11	-0.11
Mississippi St.	SEC	1.83	1.83	32.26	32.26	-0.65	-0.65
Iowa St.	B12	1.81	1.81	65.62	65.62	0.57	0.57
Tennessee St.	OVC	1.79	1.79	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Missouri St.	MVC	1.78	1.78	30.00	30.00	-0.71	-0.71
Mercer	ASun	1.72	1.72	64.52	64.52	0.50	0.50
Texas Tech	B12	0.26	0.26	35.48	35.48	-0.08	-0.08
Houston	CUSA	0.26	0.26	60.00	60.00	0.05	0.05
Texas Christian	B12	0.26	0.26	32.26	32.26	-0.09	-0.09
Texas A&M	SEC	0.25	0.25	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.23	0.23	28.12	28.12	-0.10	-0.10
Mississippi	SEC	0.19	0.19	76.47	76.47	0.10	0.10
Missouri	SEC	0.19	0.19	69.70	69.70	0.07	0.07
Florida	SEC	0.19	0.19	78.79	78.79	0.11	0.11
South Carolina	SEC	0.19	0.19	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.17	0.17	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.17	0.17	84.85	84.85	0.12	0.12
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.16	0.16	68.75	68.75	0.06	0.06
Belmont	OVC	0.15	0.15	80.00	80.00	0.09	0.09
Morehead St.	OVC	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.15	0.15	37.04	37.04	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Indiana St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.14	0.14	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
Troy	SB	0.14	0.14	36.36	36.36	-0.04	-0.04
Drake	MVC	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Nebraska	B10	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.12	0.12	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
Northwestern	B10	0.12	0.12	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.12	0.12	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.12	0.12	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Akron	MAC	0.11	0.11	80.65	80.65	0.07	0.07
Michigan St.	B10	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Baylor	B12	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Illinois St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Georgia	SEC	0.11	0.11	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.09	0.09	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.09	0.09	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.09	0.09	85.19	85.19	0.06	0.06
Murray St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.09	0.09	14.81	14.81	-0.06	-0.06
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.09	0.09	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.09	0.09	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Tulane	CUSA	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.08	0.08	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Texas	B12	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	28.00	28.00	-0.03	-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	81.25	81.25	0.04	0.04
Washington	P12	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Florida International	SB	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.06	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.00	10.00	-0.04	-0.04
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Denver	WAC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
New Orleans	ind	0.03	0.03	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	70.37	70.37	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00