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Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


Abilene Christian

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:286.6
Current RPI:295
Expected SOS:306
Current SOS:313
Current Record:8-14
Expected Record:9-16
Current Conf Record:6-9
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-9
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC RPI:263
Expected OOC SOS:301



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-14243.83.71%
10-15264.525.26%
9-16290.549.53%
8-17310.821.49%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Abilene Christian.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17New Hampshire (148.6)AEA57-65W100%0.0
11-22Charleston Southern (302.4)BSthH65-66L0%0.0
11-25Oklahoma (166.0)B12A72-64L0%0.0
11-30New Mexico (83.2)MWCA64-55L0%0.0
12-3Charleston Southern (302.4)BSthA82-85W100%0.0
12-17Sacramento St. (297.2)BSkyA88-86L0%0.0
12-19San Francisco (84.9)WCCA86-51L0%0.0
12-29New Orleans (165.3)SlndA75-66L0%0.0
12-31Southeastern Louisiana (245.3)SlndA75-53L0%0.0
1-5Central Arkansas (289.7)SlndH76-81L0%0.0
1-7Stephen F. Austin (198.3)SlndH69-60W100%0.0
1-12Southeastern Louisiana (245.3)SlndH50-56L0%0.0
1-14Lamar (233.9)SlndH67-64W100%0.0
1-19Nicholls St. (279.7)SlndA62-59L0%0.0
1-26Incarnate Word (295.1)SlndA82-79L0%0.0
1-28Texas A&M Corpus Chris (158.5)SlndA72-60L0%0.0
2-1New Orleans (165.3)SlndH70-69W100%0.0
2-4Sam Houston St. (167.7)SlndH71-64W100%0.0
2-9Central Arkansas (289.7)SlndA84-73L0%0.0
2-11Northwestern St. (324.1)SlndH76-72W100%0.0
2-16McNeese St. (298.5)SlndA78-82W100%0.0
2-22Texas A&M Corpus Chris (158.5)SlndH44-56L0%0.0
2-25Sam Houston St. (167.7)SlndA0-022%-8.1
3-1Incarnate Word (295.1)SlndH0-064%3.8
3-4Houston Baptist (201.2)SlndA0-026%-7.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Abilene Christian's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Abilene Christian's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Abilene Christian.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Abilene ChristianSlnd26.4826.4438.3038.81-6.20-5.92
Central ArkansasSlnd5.424.8722.2223.22-3.01-2.61
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd5.304.8644.0044.56-0.64-0.53
Incarnate WordSlnd3.034.8628.5730.04-1.30-1.94
New OrleansSlnd5.234.8460.0060.911.051.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd3.044.8360.8760.860.661.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd5.264.8357.1458.890.750.86
Charleston SouthernBSth4.554.0027.2728.17-2.07-1.75
Stephen F. AustinSlnd3.093.0554.5555.760.280.35
Houston BaptistSlnd0.943.0442.8644.15-0.13-0.36
Nicholls St.Slnd3.073.0031.8230.85-1.12-1.15
McNeese St.Slnd3.092.9823.8124.09-1.62-1.54
LamarSlnd3.182.9752.1754.050.140.24
Northwestern St.Slnd3.112.9528.5729.86-1.33-1.19
San FranciscoWCC2.372.0762.9663.230.610.55
New MexicoMWC2.272.0455.5654.940.250.20
OklahomaB122.322.0430.7731.30-0.89-0.76
Sacramento St.BSky2.312.0331.8234.52-0.84-0.63
New HampshireAE2.272.0060.0060.280.450.41
Oklahoma St.B120.360.2966.6765.160.120.09
Texas TechB120.190.2260.7159.310.040.04
TulaneAmer0.280.2218.5218.47-0.18-0.14
RiceCUSA0.150.2064.0063.500.040.05
LibertyBSth0.240.1957.6957.630.040.03
LongwoodBSth0.140.1916.0016.19-0.10-0.13
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.240.1928.0028.37-0.11-0.08
WinthropBSth0.140.1976.0077.350.070.10
CampbellBSth0.190.1540.0040.08-0.04-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.190.1550.0049.670.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.190.1544.0045.26-0.02-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.190.1512.0011.56-0.14-0.12
RadfordBSth0.190.1538.4640.55-0.04-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.190.1574.0773.870.090.07
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.200.1556.0055.900.020.02
MemphisAmer0.150.1566.6763.170.050.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.1546.1546.35-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.140.1535.7134.84-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.130.1535.7134.80-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.180.1488.8989.350.140.11
Utah St.MWC0.180.1442.3143.98-0.03-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.130.1425.0025.84-0.07-0.07
SouthernSWAC0.130.1448.0047.16-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.180.1440.0041.64-0.04-0.02
BaylorB120.130.1481.4878.550.080.08
Colorado St.MWC0.170.1465.3864.150.050.04
Little RockSB0.160.1344.0043.41-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.100.1271.4368.340.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.150.1251.8551.660.010.00
Texas St.SB0.150.1254.1753.210.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.140.1178.5776.210.080.06
TulsaAmer0.150.1146.1547.81-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.150.1136.0035.97-0.04-0.03
Washington St.P120.150.1142.3139.94-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.100.1175.0071.920.050.05
IdahoBSky0.100.1147.8350.77-0.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.140.1170.3769.250.060.04
Idaho St.BSky0.140.1116.0016.87-0.09-0.07
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.1129.1731.48-0.04-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.140.1140.9144.15-0.03-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1057.6957.750.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1083.3384.080.090.07
PacificWCC0.130.1032.1432.21-0.05-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.130.1040.7440.12-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.130.1078.5777.800.070.06
San Diego St.MWC0.080.1057.6958.100.010.02
WisconsinB100.120.1081.4880.840.080.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0860.7158.720.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.0820.0021.74-0.06-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.090.0861.5459.750.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.100.0825.0027.75-0.05-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0853.8554.930.010.01
USCP120.100.0877.7875.870.060.04
USC UpstateASun0.090.0850.0049.750.00-0.00
VMISC0.090.0816.0016.75-0.06-0.05
AlbanyAE0.090.0758.6259.810.020.01
BinghamtonAE0.090.0733.3334.84-0.03-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0755.5652.750.010.00
HartfordAE0.090.0730.0029.22-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.090.0717.2417.48-0.06-0.05
MontanaBSky0.100.0750.0050.340.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.100.0746.1546.03-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0763.6464.970.010.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0723.0823.14-0.03-0.04
OhioMAC0.050.0768.0068.550.020.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0748.2848.17-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0712.0013.36-0.04-0.05
Stony BrookAE0.090.0760.7159.030.020.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0737.0436.81-0.01-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.090.0733.3333.33-0.03-0.02
UMBCAE0.040.0761.5460.470.010.02
VermontAE0.090.0782.7682.940.060.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0764.0065.600.030.02
UtahP120.090.0760.0060.170.020.01
CaliforniaP120.080.0766.6766.210.030.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0720.0020.88-0.05-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0737.5042.38-0.02-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0769.2370.270.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0730.7733.71-0.03-0.02
ToledoMAC0.080.0748.1549.49-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.080.0764.0064.920.020.02
BYUWCC0.080.0765.5264.140.030.02
GonzagaWCC0.080.07100.0099.810.080.07
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0782.1481.630.050.04
Iowa St.B120.080.0766.6764.750.030.02
KansasB120.040.0789.2987.840.030.05
Kansas St.B120.040.0760.7159.890.010.01
NevadaMWC0.080.0778.5778.260.050.04
PepperdineWCC0.040.0729.6328.42-0.02-0.03
PortlandWCC0.080.0729.6329.44-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0750.0049.560.00-0.00
TCUB120.040.0759.2657.620.010.01
WyomingMWC0.040.0753.8553.510.000.00
Arizona St.P120.080.0646.4344.09-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0669.2368.600.030.02
ArmyPat0.080.0639.2938.46-0.02-0.01
ButlerBE0.080.0678.5777.620.040.04
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0665.3866.650.020.02
MichiganB100.080.0664.2963.090.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0644.0046.00-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0640.7442.17-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0642.3143.63-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0453.5752.940.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0462.9661.410.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0451.8550.690.000.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0425.9325.77-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0457.1457.270.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0475.0077.120.030.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0451.7249.530.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0482.1480.780.030.02
SMUAmer0.050.0485.7185.540.040.03
AmericanPat0.040.0425.0025.07-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0420.0022.21-0.03-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0432.1430.40-0.02-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.040.0453.5753.370.000.00
BryantNEC0.040.0435.7137.15-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0455.5655.660.010.00
DartmouthIvy0.040.0426.0925.97-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.050.0457.1456.680.010.00
DePaulBE0.050.0432.1430.89-0.02-0.01
DetroitHorz0.040.0422.2222.38-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.040.0450.0050.080.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0482.1481.760.030.02
NebraskaB100.050.0444.0042.70-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0414.2913.58-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0430.7734.71-0.02-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.040.0460.7160.840.010.01
SamfordSC0.050.0455.5656.300.010.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0462.9662.810.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0424.0022.54-0.03-0.02
TempleAmer0.040.0448.2850.61-0.000.00
UABCUSA0.050.0451.8553.220.000.00
UC DavisBW0.050.0456.0055.930.010.00
UCFAmer0.050.0464.2963.820.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0460.8760.770.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.040.0334.6233.56-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0352.1749.960.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.040.0389.2987.680.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0322.2224.27-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.040.0360.7159.670.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.040.0343.4843.27-0.01-0.00
ClemsonACC0.040.0351.8553.680.000.00
DaytonA100.040.0380.7779.440.020.02
FloridaSEC0.040.0382.1480.600.030.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.040.0344.4443.17-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.040.0348.1547.59-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.040.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.040.0350.0046.860.00-0.00
TroySB0.040.0353.8552.820.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.040.0312.5014.87-0.03-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.040.0386.2186.330.030.02