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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


Abilene Christian

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:227.3
Current RPI:229
Expected SOS:317
Current SOS:317
Current Record:9-8
Expected Record:14-13
Current Conf Record:5-3
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-6
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:218
Expected OOC SOS:284



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-8147.70.03%
18-9168.80.86%
17-10184.24.61%
16-11200.513.67%
15-12216.123.87%
14-13231.126.61%
13-14245.818.91%
12-15260.78.29%
11-16275.32.76%
10-17292.50.36%
9-18300.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Abilene Christian.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Arkansas St. (291.5)SBA83-69L0%0.0
11-20Lipscomb (132.1)ASunH67-75L0%0.0
11-24Campbell (266.8)BSthA80-85W100%0.0
11-25USC Upstate (335.3)ASunN88-78L0%0.0
11-26Bowling Green (189.0)MACN88-83W100%0.0
12-6Air Force (248.6)MWCA58-62W100%0.0
12-9Texas St. (214.7)SBH72-68W100%0.0
12-17Lipscomb (132.1)ASunA67-65L0%0.0
12-22Texas Tech (26.2)B12A74-47L0%0.0
12-28New Orleans (217.6)SlndA77-74L0%0.0
12-30Sam Houston St. (221.5)SlndH75-72W100%0.0
1-3McNeese St. (297.8)SlndH79-74W100%0.0
1-6Southeastern Louisiana (205.6)SlndH70-72L0%0.0
1-10Houston Baptist (333.6)SlndA74-82W100%0.0
1-13Northwestern St. (337.7)SlndA58-69W100%0.0
1-17Stephen F. Austin (123.3)SlndH66-76L0%0.0
1-20Central Arkansas (238.1)SlndA63-80W100%0.0
1-24Texas A&M Corpus Chris (335.6)SlndA0-054%1.1
1-31Lamar (226.5)SlndH0-052%0.5
2-3Sam Houston St. (221.5)SlndA0-030%-5.7
2-7Nicholls St. (200.2)SlndH0-058%2.2
2-10Incarnate Word (338.0)SlndH0-082%10.4
2-17Southeastern Louisiana (205.6)SlndA0-035%-4.2
2-21Texas A&M Corpus Chris (335.6)SlndH0-075%7.5
2-24Central Arkansas (238.1)SlndH0-055%1.4
2-28Stephen F. Austin (123.3)SlndA0-016%-11.1
3-3Incarnate Word (338.0)SlndA0-064%4.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Abilene Christian's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Abilene Christian's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Abilene Christian.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Abilene ChristianSlnd26.6726.4156.3255.003.372.64
Central ArkansasSlnd3.214.5447.3751.20-0.170.11
Stephen F. AustinSlnd3.224.5478.5777.811.842.53
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.444.547.6922.18-0.37-2.52
Sam Houston St.Slnd3.214.5346.6750.26-0.210.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.464.507.6919.47-0.39-2.75
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd3.414.4750.0052.930.000.26
LipscombASun5.883.7746.6755.99-0.390.45
Houston BaptistSlnd3.392.806.2520.11-2.97-1.68
LamarSlnd0.432.8050.0055.160.000.29
New OrleansSlnd3.302.7733.3343.05-1.10-0.38
Northwestern St.Slnd3.322.757.6915.44-2.81-1.90
Nicholls St.Slnd0.472.7250.0051.740.000.09
McNeese St.Slnd3.312.6830.7732.54-1.27-0.94
USC UpstateASun3.112.065.8814.85-2.75-1.45
Texas St.SB3.202.0361.1152.000.710.08
Bowling GreenMAC3.111.9262.5051.520.780.06
CampbellBSth3.111.9250.0049.230.00-0.03
Air ForceMWC3.021.8840.0033.01-0.60-0.64
Arkansas St.SB3.021.8823.5328.62-1.60-0.81
Texas TechB122.941.8577.7870.811.630.77
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.440.3083.3381.420.300.19
Louisiana MonroeSB0.450.3026.6729.12-0.21-0.13
Little RockSB0.400.2922.2225.19-0.22-0.14
BaylorB120.240.2657.8953.280.040.02
StetsonASun0.340.2533.3336.93-0.11-0.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.340.2457.8966.270.050.08
Kennesaw St.ASun0.250.2416.6724.90-0.17-0.12
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.2145.0045.03-0.01-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.250.2133.3333.76-0.08-0.07
NJITASun0.080.2138.8942.58-0.02-0.03
North FloridaASun0.250.2131.5835.15-0.09-0.06
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.2027.7838.12-0.03-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.320.1923.5328.71-0.17-0.08
BelmontOVC0.430.1871.4374.670.190.09
TexasB120.360.1765.0058.600.110.03
RiceCUSA0.360.1711.1117.68-0.28-0.11
HoustonAmer0.200.1578.9573.000.110.07
MississippiSEC0.090.1452.6345.860.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.160.1441.1839.66-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.270.1445.0041.31-0.03-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.180.1416.6716.15-0.12-0.09
LSUSEC0.190.1461.1153.190.040.01
Kent St.MAC0.090.1344.4444.91-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.250.1350.0045.850.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.080.1331.5836.23-0.03-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.1366.6765.390.030.04
Georgia St.SB0.080.1366.6765.550.030.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1127.7829.10-0.05-0.05
UMKCWAC0.080.1121.0524.76-0.05-0.06
UTEPCUSA0.000.1133.3334.100.00-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.080.1166.6755.900.030.01
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1158.8262.830.020.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.170.1025.0031.44-0.08-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.170.1038.8940.78-0.04-0.02
IdahoBSky0.090.1064.7166.850.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.090.1027.7827.11-0.04-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.170.1052.6358.610.010.02
Central MichiganMAC0.180.1062.5058.710.040.02
San Jose St.MWC0.180.1011.7612.80-0.14-0.07
TulaneAmer0.090.1063.1657.870.020.02
OklahomaB120.180.1077.7868.030.100.03
TulsaAmer0.070.1055.0053.330.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.170.1046.6747.00-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.1060.0062.010.020.02
Kansas St.B120.160.0975.0065.320.080.03
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0968.4254.040.030.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0873.6871.600.000.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.0880.9583.260.000.05
SMUAmer0.200.0770.0070.610.080.03
AlabamaSEC0.170.0768.4259.020.060.01
NavyPat0.170.0760.0055.160.030.01
PurdueB100.170.0790.4888.390.140.05
TennesseeSEC0.170.0772.2268.930.080.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.170.0735.2940.46-0.05-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.170.0757.8953.220.030.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0778.9576.980.000.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0766.6765.630.030.02
DenverSum0.170.0733.3336.47-0.06-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.0710.0019.62-0.08-0.04
High PointBSth0.090.0743.7549.22-0.01-0.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0750.0054.180.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.0752.6355.280.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.0772.2258.880.040.01
MissouriSEC0.100.0766.6763.150.030.02
New MexicoMWC0.090.0745.0048.57-0.01-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.0744.4450.31-0.010.00
RadfordBSth0.090.0757.8958.880.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0733.3332.96-0.03-0.02
UNLVMWC0.090.0773.6865.250.040.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0745.0045.470.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0766.6766.030.030.02
WinthropBSth0.090.0750.0059.430.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.170.0733.3339.89-0.06-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.170.0761.9063.170.040.02
PacificWCC0.170.0745.0044.49-0.02-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0736.8444.03-0.02-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.070.0010.26-0.09-0.05
Notre DameACC0.090.0763.1661.000.020.01
SamfordSC0.090.0727.7832.67-0.04-0.02
UCFAmer0.090.0768.4260.830.030.01
ValparaisoMVC0.090.0747.3748.77-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.170.0685.7182.120.120.04
AkronMAC0.090.0647.0644.92-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0672.2274.940.000.03
EvansvilleMVC0.170.0652.6347.500.01-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.170.0647.0641.38-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0641.1839.14-0.02-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0647.0648.430.00-0.00
TroySB0.080.0638.8944.43-0.02-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.160.0637.5037.67-0.04-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0617.6527.34-0.05-0.03
CaliforniaP120.070.0636.8431.11-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.070.0665.0063.810.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0650.0048.730.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0626.3230.45-0.03-0.02
UCLAP120.070.0665.0062.050.020.01
Iowa St.B120.080.0657.8946.220.01-0.00
KansasB120.080.0684.2179.760.050.04
TCUB120.000.0675.0067.830.000.02
West VirginiaB120.080.0680.0076.040.050.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.0447.0654.68-0.010.00
North TexasCUSA0.110.0444.4446.66-0.01-0.00
PittsburghACC0.110.0440.0030.88-0.02-0.01
UtahP120.110.0463.1659.720.030.01
MemphisAmer0.090.0465.0058.540.030.01
OaklandHorz0.090.0461.9065.150.020.01
St. John'sBE0.090.0447.3742.16-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.090.0461.1164.150.020.01
ArmyPat0.090.0361.1160.440.020.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0329.4133.200.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.090.0360.0053.720.020.00
CreightonBE0.080.0375.0070.720.040.01
DuquesneA100.000.0370.0058.090.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0342.1132.46-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0366.6763.450.030.01
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0344.4446.03-0.01-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0370.0068.210.030.01
MinnesotaB100.080.0363.6457.610.020.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0355.5657.250.000.00
Penn St.B100.090.0361.9055.820.020.00
Saint LouisA100.090.0347.3746.93-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0357.8954.500.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0355.0052.480.000.00
The CitadelSC0.090.0318.7518.37-0.05-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0358.8262.450.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.090.0317.6523.84-0.06-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.0355.5655.550.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0322.2227.31-0.05-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.0394.7490.310.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0368.4270.820.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0361.1156.790.000.00
DetroitHorz0.090.0321.0525.99-0.05-0.02
Michigan St.B100.090.0385.7183.760.060.02
ProvidenceBE0.090.0370.0060.470.030.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0342.1146.09-0.01-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0336.8435.58-0.02-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.090.0370.0060.400.030.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0361.1158.710.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0320.0023.33-0.05-0.02
DrexelCAA0.090.0330.0030.97-0.03-0.01
Green BayHorz0.090.0325.0027.93-0.04-0.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0310.5326.29-0.06-0.02
IndianaB100.080.0360.0052.880.020.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0325.0028.02-0.04-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0317.6534.76-0.06-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0378.9576.770.050.02
South DakotaSum0.090.0373.6872.400.040.01
South FloridaAmer0.080.0335.0026.13-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0326.3231.48-0.04-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0366.6767.670.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0352.9452.250.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.080.0378.9577.380.050.02
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0365.0054.600.020.00
MaineAE0.080.0310.5314.83-0.06-0.02
NorthwesternB100.080.0355.0050.370.010.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0331.5836.43-0.03-0.01
Seton HallBE0.080.0375.0067.910.040.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0361.1151.910.000.00
WoffordSC0.080.0368.7563.660.030.01