Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive

Through games of Jan 30, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	Florida	SEC	8.6910	1.0000	7.4
2	X	North Carolina	ACC	8.6401	1.0000	1.6
3	X	UCLA	P10	8.3200	1.0000	2.3
4		Wisconsin	B10	7.6902	1.0000	5.5
5	X	Pittsburgh	BE	7.5818	1.0000	4.2
6		Duke	ACC	6.4393	1.0000	3.8
7	X	Ohio St.	B10	6.2443	1.0000	9.1
8		Arizona	P10	6.0137	1.0000	7.7
9		Kentucky	SEC	5.9201	1.0000	8.3
10		Kansas	B12	5.6534	1.0000	16.3
11	X	Texas A&M	B12	5.5094	1.0000	14.4
12	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	5.5066	1.0000	14.8
13		Air Force	MWC	5.2195	1.0000	18.5
14	X	Butler	Horz	5.2049	1.0000	22.9
15	X	Memphis	CUSA	5.1684	1.0000	13.0
16		Oregon	P10	4.7581	1.0000	17.3
17		Marquette	BE	4.3892	1.0000	12.4
18		Indiana	B10	4.1077	1.0000	22.6
19		Virginia Tech	ACC	4.0152	1.0000	23.4
20	X	Nevada	WAC	3.9520	1.0000	31.2
21		Clemson	ACC	3.8846	0.9999	24.3
22		Oklahoma St.	B12	3.7650	0.9999	22.6
23		Notre Dame	BE	3.6766	0.9999	37.7
24		Georgetown	BE	3.6258	0.9999	27.2
25		Southern Illinois	MVC	3.1754	0.9993	24.8
26		Washington St.	P10	3.0563	0.9989	39.1
27		Villanova	BE	2.8540	0.9978	18.4
28		Creighton	MVC	2.8520	0.9978	36.6
29		Michigan St.	B10	2.5976	0.9953	23.1
30		Georgia	SEC	2.5492	0.9946	35.1
31		Tennessee	SEC	2.5250	0.9942	22.1
32	X	Xavier	A10	2.4163	0.9922	40.7
33		Stanford	P10	2.3587	0.9908	36.0
34	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	2.3155	0.9897	43.7
35		Maryland	ACC	2.1930	0.9858	21.6
36		Boston College	ACC	1.9618	0.9751	34.7
37	X	Missouri St.	MVC	1.6775	0.9533	32.6
38		Arkansas	SEC	1.6527	0.9508	31.8
39		Texas Tech	B12	1.6230	0.9477	32.4
40		Brigham Young	MWC	1.5435	0.9386	42.7
41		Texas	B12	1.5168	0.9353	47.5
42		Purdue	B10	1.4631	0.9283	44.6
43		West Virginia	BE	1.1772	0.8804	42.1
44		Georgia Tech	ACC	0.8542	0.8035	45.2
45		Florida St.	ACC	0.7434	0.7714	34.9
46		Illinois	B10	0.7155	0.7629	35.8
47		Southern California	P10	0.6981	0.7574	46.9
48		Vanderbilt	SEC	0.6783	0.7512	50.6
49		Alabama	SEC	0.5316	0.7025	38.4
50		Louisville	BE	0.4074	0.6581	50.9
51		Appalachian St.	SC	0.1850	0.5734	72.3
52		Providence	BE	0.0967	0.5385	47.9
53	X	Gonzaga	WCC	0.0454	0.5181	56.4
54		Virginia	ACC	-0.0200	0.4920	51.8
55		Drexel	CAA	-0.2560	0.3990	57.8
56		Michigan	B10	-0.2568	0.3987	50.0
57		Wichita St.	MVC	-0.3944	0.3466	58.8
58		Syracuse	BE	-1.0596	0.1447	49.3
59		Bradley	MVC	-1.1953	0.1160	49.9
60		Massachusetts	A10	-1.2951	0.0976	72.3
61		Kansas St.	B12	-1.4864	0.0686	63.5
62	X	Davidson	SC	-1.5015	0.0666	74.2
63		Missouri	B12	-1.5119	0.0653	58.3
64		New Mexico St.	WAC	-1.6312	0.0514	79.2
65	X	Western Kentucky	SB	-1.7228	0.0425	78.9
66	X	Winthrop	BSth	-1.7341	0.0415	87.6
67	X	Akron	MAC	-1.8398	0.0329	82.4
68		Old Dominion	CAA	-1.8407	0.0328	70.6
69		Oklahoma	B12	-1.8490	0.0322	59.0
70		Connecticut	BE	-1.9452	0.0259	58.6
71		Northern Iowa	MVC	-2.0386	0.0207	72.2
72		George Washington	A10	-2.3657	0.0090	77.3
73		California	P10	-2.4414	0.0073	62.2
74		Louisiana St.	SEC	-2.5588	0.0053	60.4
75		Mississippi St.	SEC	-2.6499	0.0040	67.3
76	X	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-2.7897	0.0026	88.8
77		Washington	P10	-2.9001	0.0019	65.6
78	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-2.9685	0.0015	82.7
79		Hofstra	CAA	-3.0155	0.0013	95.5
80		San Diego St.	MWC	-3.2846	0.0005	75.7
81		Boise St.	WAC	-3.3637	0.0004	88.6
82	X	Pennsylvania	Ivy	-3.4580	0.0003	94.2
83		St. Louis	A10	-3.4937	0.0002	90.9
84		Mississippi	SEC	-3.5943	0.0002	74.6
85		Colorado St.	MWC	-3.6074	0.0002	89.2
86		Houston	CUSA	-3.6680	0.0001	83.7
87		Dayton	A10	-3.6753	0.0001	84.6
88		DePaul	BE	-4.1087	0.0000	72.7
89	X	Oral Roberts	MCon	-4.1649	0.0000	104.4
90		Utah St.	WAC	-4.2243	0.0000	83.8
91		Saint Joseph's	A10	-4.2690	0.0000	90.4
92		Fresno St.	WAC	-4.2740	0.0000	93.8
93		Vermont	AE	-4.3373	0.0000	111.4
94		Toledo	MAC	-4.4029	0.0000	104.5
95		South Carolina	SEC	-4.4034	0.0000	76.8
96		Santa Clara	WCC	-4.4831	0.0000	98.6
97		Kent St.	MAC	-4.5976	0.0000	106.0
98		Auburn	SEC	-4.6904	0.0000	86.0
99		Nebraska	B12	-4.7510	0.0000	91.4
100		Wyoming	MWC	-4.7580	0.0000	101.8
101		Ohio	MAC	-4.8010	0.0000	102.7
102		Hawaii	WAC	-4.8905	0.0000	99.8
103		Fordham	A10	-4.9351	0.0000	106.9
104		UAB	CUSA	-5.1753	0.0000	98.3
105		Tulsa	CUSA	-5.3360	0.0000	101.6
106		Albany	AE	-5.3859	0.0000	115.9
107		George Mason	CAA	-5.5216	0.0000	106.5
108	X	Long Beach St.	BW	-5.7360	0.0000	118.9
109		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-5.8241	0.0000	129.8
110		Bucknell	Pat	-5.9337	0.0000	126.0
111		Iowa	B10	-6.0818	0.0000	99.5
112	X	Marist	MAAC	-6.2546	0.0000	132.5
113		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-6.2737	0.0000	124.7
114		Oakland	MCon	-6.4331	0.0000	126.4
115		Indiana St.	MVC	-6.4474	0.0000	101.9
116		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-6.4885	0.0000	124.8
117		Austin Peay	OVC	-6.4993	0.0000	137.2
118		Evansville	MVC	-6.5307	0.0000	97.7
119		Central Florida	CUSA	-6.5394	0.0000	129.1
120		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-6.5574	0.0000	120.9
121		Wright St.	Horz	-6.7629	0.0000	129.4
122		New Mexico	MWC	-6.9193	0.0000	107.9
123		Seton Hall	BE	-6.9311	0.0000	97.6
124		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-6.9344	0.0000	141.5
125	X	Belmont	ASun	-7.0000	0.0000	146.2
126		College of Charleston	SC	-7.1706	0.0000	128.2
127		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-7.2542	0.0000	149.0
128		Cincinnati	BE	-7.4384	0.0000	111.0
129		Utah	MWC	-7.4502	0.0000	127.7
130		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-7.5231	0.0000	128.3
131	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-7.6347	0.0000	147.6
132		Baylor	B12	-7.6608	0.0000	104.9
133	X	Tennessee Tech	OVC	-7.7156	0.0000	147.0
134		South Alabama	SB	-7.9315	0.0000	140.4
135		St. John's	BE	-8.1657	0.0000	118.3
136		Wake Forest	ACC	-8.2642	0.0000	119.4
137		Western Michigan	MAC	-8.3453	0.0000	145.0
138		North Dakota St.	ind	-8.4043	0.0000	159.3
139		Miami OH	MAC	-8.4528	0.0000	134.2
140		Samford	OVC	-8.4571	0.0000	160.4
141		Rhode Island	A10	-8.5273	0.0000	134.3
142	X	Delaware St.	MEAC	-8.6597	0.0000	159.9
143		Loyola MD	MAAC	-8.7843	0.0000	168.5
144	X	Idaho St.	BSky	-8.9410	0.0000	146.7
145		Northwestern	B10	-8.9618	0.0000	120.2
146		Utah Valley St.	ind	-9.1182	0.0000	164.1
147		St. Mary's	WCC	-9.1732	0.0000	145.3
148		Middle Tennessee	SB	-9.2467	0.0000	153.6
149		Illinois St.	MVC	-9.3276	0.0000	124.7
150		Sacred Heart	NEC	-9.3461	0.0000	165.5
151		North Carolina St.	ACC	-9.3606	0.0000	113.2
152		Drake	MVC	-9.3676	0.0000	118.3
153		North Texas	SB	-9.5453	0.0000	171.9
154		Temple	A10	-9.6884	0.0000	144.5
155		Siena	MAAC	-9.7631	0.0000	164.6
156		Charlotte	A10	-9.9408	0.0000	141.6
157		Penn St.	B10	-10.1931	0.0000	131.5
158		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-10.2208	0.0000	174.1
159		Iowa St.	B12	-10.3726	0.0000	140.8
160		Rice	CUSA	-10.4174	0.0000	169.7
161		Marshall	CUSA	-10.4429	0.0000	158.9
162		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-10.4727	0.0000	154.7
163		NC Greensboro	SC	-10.4790	0.0000	185.6
164		Towson	CAA	-10.4998	0.0000	149.0
165		Southern Utah	MCon	-10.5074	0.0000	171.6
166		Miami FL	ACC	-10.5931	0.0000	149.8
167		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-10.6358	0.0000	176.2
168	X	Jackson St.	SWAC	-10.6560	0.0000	182.1
169		Yale	Ivy	-10.7330	0.0000	171.0
170		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-10.7841	0.0000	182.7
171		Manhattan	MAAC	-10.8051	0.0000	192.8
172		Detroit	Horz	-10.8605	0.0000	168.9
173		Central Connecticut	NEC	-11.0279	0.0000	192.3
174		Weber St.	BSky	-11.0591	0.0000	180.9
175		Rider	MAAC	-11.0757	0.0000	183.8
176		UC Irvine	BW	-11.1030	0.0000	179.7
177		Princeton	Ivy	-11.3339	0.0000	181.9
178		Minnesota	B10	-11.3599	0.0000	146.4
179		San Diego	WCC	-11.4012	0.0000	179.2
180		Canisius	MAAC	-11.5422	0.0000	189.2
181		High Point	BSth	-11.6530	0.0000	192.5
182		Valparaiso	MCon	-11.7711	0.0000	190.5
183		Lipscomb	ASun	-11.8613	0.0000	189.1
184		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-11.9235	0.0000	179.8
185		Cornell	Ivy	-11.9291	0.0000	195.7
186		South Florida	BE	-12.0418	0.0000	147.3
187		Montana	BSky	-12.1871	0.0000	197.3
188		Arkansas St.	SB	-12.1999	0.0000	204.1
189		Texas Christian	MWC	-12.2189	0.0000	158.0
190		Army	Pat	-12.4354	0.0000	184.7
191		American	Pat	-12.4542	0.0000	192.2
192		Youngstown St.	Horz	-12.4811	0.0000	188.6
193		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-12.7198	0.0000	195.6
194		Niagara	MAAC	-12.8233	0.0000	211.1
195		Harvard	Ivy	-12.9110	0.0000	189.8
196		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-12.9576	0.0000	208.4
197		Eastern Washington	BSky	-13.0212	0.0000	206.7
198		Portland St.	BSky	-13.0985	0.0000	204.9
199		Murray St.	OVC	-13.1217	0.0000	213.8
200		San Francisco	WCC	-13.2251	0.0000	193.0
201	X	Boston University	AE	-13.2842	0.0000	201.1
202		Furman	SC	-13.4607	0.0000	203.4
203		William & Mary	CAA	-13.4706	0.0000	182.1
204		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-13.4981	0.0000	213.4
205		New Orleans	SB	-13.7660	0.0000	212.6
206		Maine	AE	-13.8357	0.0000	216.8
207		Pacific	BW	-13.8374	0.0000	205.5
208		MD Baltimore County	AE	-13.8598	0.0000	212.9
209		Rutgers	BE	-13.8739	0.0000	168.4
210		Jacksonville	ASun	-13.9309	0.0000	217.7
211		Buffalo	MAC	-14.2299	0.0000	202.2
212		Columbia	Ivy	-14.3644	0.0000	216.4
213		Florida A&M	MEAC	-14.4377	0.0000	229.8
214		Lehigh	Pat	-14.5025	0.0000	222.4
215		Ball St.	MAC	-14.6447	0.0000	215.5
216		Northern Arizona	BSky	-14.6764	0.0000	235.1
217		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-14.6910	0.0000	208.1
218		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-14.7379	0.0000	203.5
219		Duquesne	A10	-14.8086	0.0000	217.7
220		Hampton	MEAC	-14.8274	0.0000	224.2
221		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-14.8280	0.0000	232.9
222		Oregon St.	P10	-14.8318	0.0000	166.4
223		Northeastern	CAA	-14.8499	0.0000	194.1
224		Florida Atlantic	SB	-14.8657	0.0000	221.8
225		IUPUI	MCon	-15.1739	0.0000	230.4
226		Cal Poly	BW	-15.2432	0.0000	237.9
227		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-15.4409	0.0000	231.3
228		Brown	Ivy	-15.5962	0.0000	241.4
229		Lamar	Slnd	-15.6317	0.0000	239.1
230		Monmouth	NEC	-15.7297	0.0000	230.8
231		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-15.8194	0.0000	246.5
232		Tulane	CUSA	-15.8833	0.0000	226.3
233		Mercer	ASun	-15.9099	0.0000	251.4
234		Navy	Pat	-15.9971	0.0000	229.7
235		Fairfield	MAAC	-16.0307	0.0000	223.2
236		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-16.1537	0.0000	250.1
237		Tennessee St.	OVC	-16.2425	0.0000	239.2
238		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-16.3025	0.0000	249.0
239		Hartford	AE	-16.3320	0.0000	239.1
240		Arizona St.	P10	-16.4270	0.0000	190.3
241		Chicago St.	MCon	-16.4478	0.0000	222.9
242		Bowling Green	MAC	-16.4682	0.0000	231.8
243		Troy	SB	-16.7765	0.0000	242.1
244		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-16.8064	0.0000	222.6
245		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-16.9435	0.0000	238.4
246		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-16.9920	0.0000	248.4
247		Central Michigan	MAC	-17.1463	0.0000	246.2
248		Georgia Southern	SC	-17.2480	0.0000	245.7
249		Campbell	ASun	-17.2908	0.0000	256.3
250		Chattanooga	SC	-17.3218	0.0000	239.5
251		La Salle	A10	-17.4111	0.0000	232.9
252		Pepperdine	WCC	-17.4268	0.0000	241.7
253		Quinnipiac	NEC	-17.5101	0.0000	267.7
254		Morehead St.	OVC	-17.5200	0.0000	268.2
255		New Hampshire	AE	-17.7860	0.0000	264.3
256		Dartmouth	Ivy	-17.9135	0.0000	254.4
257		Texas Southern	SWAC	-18.0263	0.0000	266.2
258		NC Wilmington	CAA	-18.1085	0.0000	234.3
259		Colorado	B12	-18.1238	0.0000	218.0
260		Cleveland St.	Horz	-18.1887	0.0000	258.7
261		Florida International	SB	-18.2420	0.0000	263.4
262		McNeese St.	Slnd	-18.2879	0.0000	267.4
263		Gardner Webb	ASun	-18.3765	0.0000	262.5
264		Binghamton	AE	-18.4024	0.0000	267.3
265		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-18.7085	0.0000	281.2
266		Western Carolina	SC	-18.7784	0.0000	253.8
267		Stony Brook	AE	-19.0285	0.0000	269.6
268		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-19.0308	0.0000	282.5
269		San Jose St.	WAC	-19.0361	0.0000	237.0
270		Grambling	SWAC	-19.2397	0.0000	289.2
271		Colgate	Pat	-19.2807	0.0000	267.9
272		Stetson	ASun	-19.3717	0.0000	277.4
273		Morgan St.	MEAC	-19.3831	0.0000	294.4
274		IUPU Fort Wayne	ind	-19.4222	0.0000	285.7
275		Liberty	BSth	-19.4352	0.0000	277.5
276		Coppin St.	MEAC	-19.4477	0.0000	266.7
277		Lafayette	Pat	-19.4518	0.0000	268.3
278		Missouri Kansas City	MCon	-19.4809	0.0000	276.0
279		St. Bonaventure	A10	-19.5407	0.0000	269.1
280		Texas Pan American	ind	-19.5944	0.0000	289.4
281		Georgia St.	CAA	-19.6317	0.0000	245.9
282		Montana St.	BSky	-19.6330	0.0000	287.7
283		Savannah St.	ind	-19.9869	0.0000	284.9
284		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-20.1125	0.0000	293.7
285		UC Davis	ind	-20.1406	0.0000	296.8
286		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-20.1744	0.0000	283.2
287		Wagner	NEC	-20.2765	0.0000	295.0
288		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-20.3588	0.0000	283.2
289		Delaware	CAA	-20.6851	0.0000	276.2
290		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-20.8702	0.0000	298.0
291		Portland	WCC	-21.0038	0.0000	277.6
292		NC Asheville	BSth	-21.0854	0.0000	294.9
293		St. Francis NY	NEC	-21.1301	0.0000	295.0
294		Southern	SWAC	-21.1373	0.0000	301.5
295		James Madison	CAA	-21.2059	0.0000	285.2
296		Richmond	A10	-21.2800	0.0000	270.1
297		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-21.3204	0.0000	310.1
298		Sacramento St.	BSky	-21.3304	0.0000	299.0
299		Northern Illinois	MAC	-21.3319	0.0000	291.2
300		Radford	BSth	-21.4090	0.0000	300.1
301		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-21.4657	0.0000	299.5
302		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-21.4725	0.0000	309.4
303		Centenary	MCon	-21.5502	0.0000	291.9
304		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-21.7453	0.0000	321.6
305		Alabama St.	SWAC	-21.7510	0.0000	307.7
306		Howard	MEAC	-21.7770	0.0000	316.2
307		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-21.8016	0.0000	310.3
308		Longwood	ind	-21.8635	0.0000	296.1
309		South Dakota St.	ind	-21.9071	0.0000	314.6
310		Long Island	NEC	-21.9145	0.0000	316.7
311		The Citadel	SC	-21.9314	0.0000	283.0
312		Idaho	WAC	-22.1785	0.0000	273.7
313		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-22.2162	0.0000	311.4
314		Elon	SC	-22.2374	0.0000	291.7
315		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-22.3070	0.0000	304.6
316		Texas St.	Slnd	-22.3553	0.0000	312.2
317		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-22.4909	0.0000	311.0
318		Wofford	SC	-22.5232	0.0000	301.8
319		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-22.7028	0.0000	317.7
320		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-22.7429	0.0000	328.8
321		Winston Salem St.	ind	-22.8058	0.0000	313.2
322		East Carolina	CUSA	-22.8487	0.0000	309.6
323		St. Peter's	MAAC	-23.1717	0.0000	320.4
324		UC Riverside	BW	-23.1749	0.0000	322.4
325		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-23.3968	0.0000	330.9
326		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-23.4960	0.0000	329.1
327		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-23.5052	0.0000	327.2
328		St. Francis PA	NEC	-23.7975	0.0000	325.3
329		Charleston Southern	BSth	-23.8683	0.0000	326.6
330		Denver	SB	-23.9871	0.0000	328.0
331		Iona	MAAC	-24.0791	0.0000	325.4
332		Western Illinois	MCon	-24.1075	0.0000	331.2
333		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-24.2614	0.0000	315.2
334		Northern Colorado	BSky	-24.5231	0.0000	334.9
335		North Florida	ASun	-24.5909	0.0000	334.3
336		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-26.0115	0.0000	334.3

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, and to Jay Colemen for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com