Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive

Through games of Dec 30, 2006.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	UCLA	P10	8.1837	1.0000	2.2
2		Arizona	P10	7.8804	1.0000	4.0
3	X	North Carolina	ACC	7.3968	1.0000	3.5
4		Duke	ACC	6.9273	1.0000	3.5
5	X	Florida	SEC	6.6681	1.0000	10.9
6	X	Texas A&M	B12	6.4816	1.0000	11.2
7	X	Air Force	MWC	6.2896	1.0000	12.8
8		Villanova	BE	5.6644	1.0000	6.9
9	X	Ohio St.	B10	5.4477	1.0000	13.0
10	X	Notre Dame	BE	5.3538	1.0000	22.3
11	X	Butler	Horz	5.2793	1.0000	21.8
12		Clemson	ACC	5.1710	1.0000	15.5
13		Tennessee	SEC	5.0415	1.0000	13.4
14		Kentucky	SEC	4.9154	1.0000	13.2
15		Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	4.8067	1.0000	17.2
16		Wisconsin	B10	4.7184	1.0000	20.9
17		Oregon	P10	4.6804	1.0000	19.6
18		Oklahoma St.	B12	4.3282	1.0000	18.1
19		Connecticut	BE	4.2208	1.0000	24.1
20		Drexel	CAA	4.1372	1.0000	29.8
21		Purdue	B10	4.0509	1.0000	28.8
22		Georgia Tech	ACC	4.0334	1.0000	25.5
23	X	Nevada	WAC	3.9957	1.0000	30.5
24		Maryland	ACC	3.9597	1.0000	16.0
25	X	Memphis	CUSA	3.9084	1.0000	25.6
26		Alabama	SEC	3.6271	0.9999	21.2
27		Michigan St.	B10	3.5634	0.9998	20.5
28		Kansas	B12	3.5021	0.9998	34.9
29	X	Missouri St.	MVC	3.1912	0.9993	28.0
30		Pittsburgh	BE	3.1694	0.9992	19.5
31		West Virginia	BE	2.8532	0.9978	33.0
32		Mississippi St.	SEC	2.6868	0.9964	31.3
33	X	Xavier	A10	2.5547	0.9947	40.3
34		Illinois	B10	2.3570	0.9908	29.0
35		Indiana	B10	2.2614	0.9881	34.1
36		Georgetown	BE	2.2032	0.9862	35.5
37		Washington St.	P10	2.1677	0.9849	42.1
38		Southern Illinois	MVC	2.0629	0.9804	35.3
39		Oklahoma	B12	1.8960	0.9710	35.9
40		Georgia	SEC	1.2999	0.9032	42.0
41		Arkansas	SEC	1.2461	0.8936	36.8
42		Virginia Tech	ACC	0.9748	0.8352	46.6
43	X	Western Kentucky	SB	0.8887	0.8129	53.0
44		Syracuse	BE	0.5841	0.7204	40.5
45	X	Gonzaga	WCC	0.5597	0.7122	52.7
46		Missouri	B12	0.4354	0.6684	41.2
47		Marquette	BE	0.4164	0.6614	41.9
48		Louisiana St.	SEC	0.2245	0.5888	45.8
49		Boston College	ACC	0.0132	0.5053	50.2
50		Florida St.	ACC	-0.0305	0.4878	44.7
51		Texas	B12	-0.1348	0.4464	55.2
52		DePaul	BE	-0.2930	0.3848	50.7
53		Wichita St.	MVC	-0.3108	0.3780	57.6
54		Creighton	MVC	-0.3996	0.3447	52.0
55	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-0.4378	0.3308	65.3
56		San Diego St.	MWC	-0.4652	0.3209	53.7
57		Washington	P10	-0.7073	0.2397	52.0
58		Brigham Young	MWC	-1.0255	0.1526	61.1
59		St. Louis	A10	-1.0709	0.1421	64.6
60		California	P10	-1.2343	0.1085	51.7
61	X	Winthrop	BSth	-1.3293	0.0919	84.0
62		Southern California	P10	-1.4243	0.0772	58.7
63		Providence	BE	-1.4851	0.0688	58.1
64		Bradley	MVC	-1.5382	0.0620	62.5
65		Nebraska	B12	-1.6085	0.0539	64.7
66	X	Davidson	SC	-1.7655	0.0387	80.6
67		Texas Tech	B12	-1.8309	0.0336	53.4
68		Stanford	P10	-1.9165	0.0276	64.7
69		George Washington	A10	-1.9514	0.0255	78.0
70		Appalachian St.	SC	-2.2708	0.0116	89.8
71		Northern Iowa	MVC	-2.5098	0.0060	74.9
72	X	Akron	MAC	-2.7243	0.0032	91.4
73		Fresno St.	WAC	-2.7963	0.0026	84.8
74		Tulsa	CUSA	-2.8385	0.0023	75.6
75		Old Dominion	CAA	-2.9319	0.0017	77.1
76		Massachusetts	A10	-2.9528	0.0016	86.4
77		Hawaii	WAC	-2.9546	0.0016	81.0
78	X	Pennsylvania	Ivy	-2.9646	0.0015	91.1
79		Michigan	B10	-3.0209	0.0013	67.0
80		George Mason	CAA	-3.1694	0.0008	88.9
81		Dayton	A10	-3.1942	0.0007	77.1
82		Louisville	BE	-3.4774	0.0003	71.8
83	X	Marist	MAAC	-3.5487	0.0002	103.1
84	X	UC Santa Barbara	BW	-3.7036	0.0001	103.4
85		UAB	CUSA	-3.7839	0.0001	88.1
86		Temple	A10	-3.9749	0.0000	89.2
87		Kent St.	MAC	-4.1457	0.0000	104.2
88		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-4.2159	0.0000	94.5
89		Virginia	ACC	-4.2419	0.0000	82.9
90		Ohio	MAC	-4.4064	0.0000	100.5
91		New Mexico	MWC	-4.4781	0.0000	92.8
92		Seton Hall	BE	-4.5153	0.0000	80.3
93		Kansas St.	B12	-4.5451	0.0000	84.4
94		Santa Clara	WCC	-4.5570	0.0000	98.9
95		Cincinnati	BE	-4.6174	0.0000	82.8
96		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-4.7974	0.0000	96.7
97		South Carolina	SEC	-4.8573	0.0000	79.8
98		Utah St.	WAC	-4.9338	0.0000	94.4
99		Boise St.	WAC	-4.9909	0.0000	109.0
100		Mississippi	SEC	-5.1148	0.0000	80.2
101		New Mexico St.	WAC	-5.1709	0.0000	106.7
102	X	Belmont	ASun	-5.2603	0.0000	127.6
103	X	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-5.3056	0.0000	114.2
104	X	Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-5.3466	0.0000	123.5
105		Evansville	MVC	-5.4169	0.0000	90.7
106		Houston	CUSA	-5.8730	0.0000	98.7
107		North Texas	SB	-5.8829	0.0000	132.3
108		Vanderbilt	SEC	-5.9491	0.0000	96.8
109		Indiana St.	MVC	-6.0012	0.0000	94.1
110		Central Florida	CUSA	-6.1277	0.0000	124.5
111	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-6.1332	0.0000	114.9
112		Albany	AE	-6.2427	0.0000	128.6
113		Utah	MWC	-6.2626	0.0000	118.8
114		Northwestern	B10	-6.2630	0.0000	102.8
115		Colorado St.	MWC	-6.4999	0.0000	112.7
116	X	Oral Roberts	MCon	-6.5004	0.0000	127.4
117		Saint Joseph's	A10	-6.7168	0.0000	108.8
118		Fordham	A10	-6.8469	0.0000	128.7
119		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-6.8586	0.0000	136.9
120		Bucknell	Pat	-6.8906	0.0000	135.8
121		Vermont	AE	-6.9409	0.0000	138.7
122		Long Beach St.	BW	-7.1211	0.0000	130.8
123		Wake Forest	ACC	-7.1519	0.0000	112.4
124		Western Michigan	MAC	-7.3248	0.0000	134.0
125		Penn St.	B10	-7.4416	0.0000	107.7
126		Auburn	SEC	-7.6025	0.0000	102.0
127		Iowa	B10	-7.6800	0.0000	115.1
128		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-7.7208	0.0000	146.5
129		Illinois St.	MVC	-7.7633	0.0000	107.0
130		Baylor	B12	-7.7703	0.0000	104.9
131		College of Charleston	SC	-7.9681	0.0000	139.3
132		Army	Pat	-7.9890	0.0000	139.8
133		San Diego	WCC	-8.0071	0.0000	141.4
134		Robert Morris	NEC	-8.1002	0.0000	154.1
135	X	Sacred Heart	NEC	-8.1840	0.0000	154.7
136		North Carolina St.	ACC	-8.2689	0.0000	112.9
137		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-8.3139	0.0000	136.9
138		Samford	OVC	-8.5371	0.0000	161.8
139		North Dakota St.	ind	-8.5449	0.0000	163.0
140		Wyoming	MWC	-8.7020	0.0000	131.9
141		Hofstra	CAA	-8.7486	0.0000	143.3
142		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-8.8227	0.0000	143.0
143		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-8.8751	0.0000	145.5
144		Siena	MAAC	-8.9868	0.0000	161.8
145		Oakland	MCon	-9.0312	0.0000	149.3
146	X	Idaho St.	BSky	-9.0980	0.0000	150.7
147		Youngstown St.	Horz	-9.2114	0.0000	158.2
148		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-9.2165	0.0000	167.9
149		Miami OH	MAC	-9.3714	0.0000	144.0
150		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-9.4255	0.0000	159.2
151		UC Irvine	BW	-9.4654	0.0000	154.2
152		South Alabama	SB	-9.6971	0.0000	157.8
153		Rider	MAAC	-9.8095	0.0000	170.2
154		Miami FL	ACC	-9.8097	0.0000	142.4
155		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-9.8102	0.0000	177.4
156		American	Pat	-9.9545	0.0000	169.3
157		Eastern Washington	BSky	-9.9698	0.0000	171.8
158		Loyola MD	MAAC	-9.9809	0.0000	175.7
159		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-10.1196	0.0000	147.3
160		Navy	Pat	-10.1587	0.0000	167.0
161		South Florida	BE	-10.2918	0.0000	135.4
162		Texas Christian	MWC	-10.2930	0.0000	138.9
163		Lipscomb	ASun	-10.3322	0.0000	177.1
164		Towson	CAA	-10.3659	0.0000	148.6
165		Utah Valley St.	ind	-10.3831	0.0000	180.4
166		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-10.4394	0.0000	164.7
167		Toledo	MAC	-10.5455	0.0000	171.3
168		Drake	MVC	-10.5561	0.0000	129.8
169		Canisius	MAAC	-10.5799	0.0000	175.6
170		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-10.7220	0.0000	173.9
171		Charlotte	A10	-10.7923	0.0000	147.2
172		Buffalo	MAC	-10.9618	0.0000	170.1
173		St. Mary's	WCC	-10.9879	0.0000	159.7
174		Rice	CUSA	-11.0753	0.0000	165.6
175		Furman	SC	-11.1298	0.0000	180.9
176		Princeton	Ivy	-11.1634	0.0000	180.5
177	X	Jackson St.	SWAC	-11.2012	0.0000	190.9
178		Middle Tennessee	SB	-11.2677	0.0000	178.8
179		Southern Utah	MCon	-11.4098	0.0000	187.0
180		NC Greensboro	SC	-11.4197	0.0000	189.5
181	X	Delaware St.	MEAC	-11.5292	0.0000	188.7
182		St. John's	BE	-11.5807	0.0000	138.7
183		Tulane	CUSA	-11.6364	0.0000	172.2
184		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-11.6450	0.0000	190.4
185		Chattanooga	SC	-11.7160	0.0000	184.2
186		Rhode Island	A10	-11.9992	0.0000	160.0
187		Minnesota	B10	-12.0066	0.0000	148.6
188		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-12.4598	0.0000	203.0
189	X	Boston University	AE	-12.5111	0.0000	202.8
190		Austin Peay	OVC	-12.5599	0.0000	204.3
191		Valparaiso	MCon	-12.5834	0.0000	197.1
192		Montana	BSky	-12.5877	0.0000	201.7
193		Hartford	AE	-12.6000	0.0000	198.3
194		IUPUI	MCon	-12.8426	0.0000	200.1
195		Weber St.	BSky	-12.9162	0.0000	203.6
196		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-12.9458	0.0000	214.4
197		Oregon St.	P10	-12.9682	0.0000	152.1
198		Harvard	Ivy	-12.9720	0.0000	197.5
199		Yale	Ivy	-12.9998	0.0000	198.0
200		Marshall	CUSA	-13.0142	0.0000	185.1
201		Portland St.	BSky	-13.2380	0.0000	205.0
202		Pepperdine	WCC	-13.4580	0.0000	195.3
203		NC Wilmington	CAA	-13.6473	0.0000	195.4
204		Brown	Ivy	-13.6516	0.0000	216.6
205		Pacific	BW	-13.7794	0.0000	202.8
206		Murray St.	OVC	-13.8133	0.0000	218.2
207		Ball St.	MAC	-13.8230	0.0000	197.9
208		Campbell	ASun	-13.9430	0.0000	216.8
209		New Orleans	SB	-13.9684	0.0000	215.1
210		Morehead St.	OVC	-13.9824	0.0000	228.3
211		Monmouth	NEC	-14.0598	0.0000	215.9
212		Lamar	Slnd	-14.1121	0.0000	221.2
213		Stony Brook	AE	-14.2319	0.0000	223.8
214		Columbia	Ivy	-14.2547	0.0000	220.2
215		Cornell	Ivy	-14.4598	0.0000	227.8
216		High Point	BSth	-14.4811	0.0000	220.1
217		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-14.7049	0.0000	226.2
218		Arizona St.	P10	-14.7172	0.0000	174.0
219		Tennessee St.	OVC	-15.0110	0.0000	224.4
220		Jacksonville	ASun	-15.1659	0.0000	231.8
221		Florida Atlantic	SB	-15.1768	0.0000	223.4
222		Iowa St.	B12	-15.2376	0.0000	180.9
223		Georgia Southern	SC	-15.2410	0.0000	230.0
224		Maine	AE	-15.3236	0.0000	232.4
225		Central Michigan	MAC	-15.3324	0.0000	225.1
226		William & Mary	CAA	-15.3489	0.0000	208.0
227		Arkansas St.	SB	-15.4092	0.0000	232.8
228		Lehigh	Pat	-15.5190	0.0000	236.3
229		Troy	SB	-15.5233	0.0000	230.2
230		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-15.8469	0.0000	235.1
231		Niagara	MAAC	-15.8929	0.0000	241.0
232		San Francisco	WCC	-15.9037	0.0000	224.0
233		Stetson	ASun	-15.9264	0.0000	239.4
234		Cleveland St.	Horz	-15.9273	0.0000	230.3
235		Rutgers	BE	-15.9687	0.0000	183.7
236		Fairfield	MAAC	-16.0541	0.0000	226.1
237		Bowling Green	MAC	-16.0620	0.0000	230.5
238		Duquesne	A10	-16.0850	0.0000	225.7
239		MD Baltimore County	AE	-16.2381	0.0000	239.9
240		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-16.3783	0.0000	252.4
241		Wright St.	Horz	-16.4121	0.0000	233.8
242		Binghamton	AE	-16.4714	0.0000	249.2
243		Northeastern	CAA	-16.5809	0.0000	219.4
244		Texas Pan American	ind	-16.6035	0.0000	251.5
245		Detroit	Horz	-16.6445	0.0000	230.6
246		Northern Arizona	BSky	-16.9945	0.0000	255.6
247		Hampton	MEAC	-17.2127	0.0000	257.4
248		Chicago St.	MCon	-17.3462	0.0000	236.7
249		Centenary	MCon	-17.3550	0.0000	252.8
250		Florida A&M	MEAC	-17.4630	0.0000	262.8
251		Liberty	BSth	-17.5226	0.0000	254.7
252		La Salle	A10	-17.5290	0.0000	234.5
253		Western Carolina	SC	-17.5804	0.0000	247.0
254		IUPU Fort Wayne	ind	-17.6456	0.0000	265.5
255		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-17.6715	0.0000	265.8
256		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-17.6789	0.0000	238.4
257		Richmond	A10	-17.7803	0.0000	230.8
258		Howard	MEAC	-17.7934	0.0000	274.5
259		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-17.8301	0.0000	270.8
260		Coppin St.	MEAC	-17.8791	0.0000	250.0
261		Texas Southern	SWAC	-17.9307	0.0000	269.5
262		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-18.0396	0.0000	264.1
263		Delaware	CAA	-18.1184	0.0000	252.9
264		St. Peter's	MAAC	-18.4466	0.0000	269.0
265		Colgate	Pat	-18.4681	0.0000	262.2
266		Georgia St.	CAA	-18.5100	0.0000	245.8
267		Lafayette	Pat	-18.5648	0.0000	259.6
268		Cal Poly	BW	-18.6342	0.0000	272.1
269		Mercer	ASun	-18.7354	0.0000	279.3
270		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-18.7472	0.0000	281.8
271		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-18.7802	0.0000	278.8
272		Central Connecticut	NEC	-18.8359	0.0000	280.8
273		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-18.9146	0.0000	279.7
274		Longwood	ind	-19.0052	0.0000	267.9
275		San Jose St.	WAC	-19.1608	0.0000	246.0
276		Radford	BSth	-19.2607	0.0000	276.2
277		Northern Illinois	MAC	-19.2867	0.0000	273.6
278		Manhattan	MAAC	-19.3233	0.0000	281.1
279		Dartmouth	Ivy	-19.3363	0.0000	268.0
280		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-19.4959	0.0000	282.2
281		St. Francis PA	NEC	-19.5679	0.0000	289.0
282		Florida International	SB	-19.5711	0.0000	273.6
283		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-19.5751	0.0000	277.9
284		NC Asheville	BSth	-19.6045	0.0000	281.9
285		East Carolina	CUSA	-19.7353	0.0000	273.3
286		Colorado	B12	-20.2252	0.0000	238.5
287		Southern	SWAC	-20.2645	0.0000	294.2
288		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-20.4481	0.0000	253.3
289		Quinnipiac	NEC	-20.5487	0.0000	301.8
290		McNeese St.	Slnd	-20.6723	0.0000	287.8
291		Wagner	NEC	-20.7310	0.0000	300.4
292		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-20.7664	0.0000	281.1
293		Morgan St.	MEAC	-20.7951	0.0000	303.3
294		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-20.8484	0.0000	291.5
295		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-20.8611	0.0000	291.9
296		UC Riverside	BW	-20.9819	0.0000	298.2
297		Long Island	NEC	-21.0143	0.0000	308.4
298		Charleston Southern	BSth	-21.1280	0.0000	303.9
299		Alabama St.	SWAC	-21.1593	0.0000	306.6
300		Wofford	SC	-21.1678	0.0000	294.5
301		Grambling	SWAC	-21.2199	0.0000	309.9
302		New Hampshire	AE	-21.3242	0.0000	304.5
303		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-21.5031	0.0000	293.1
304		Sacramento St.	BSky	-21.5284	0.0000	301.8
305		St. Francis NY	NEC	-21.6732	0.0000	306.1
306		Gardner Webb	ASun	-21.7134	0.0000	296.4
307		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-21.7512	0.0000	312.2
308		Missouri Kansas City	MCon	-21.7748	0.0000	299.6
309		UC Davis	ind	-21.9287	0.0000	319.5
310		Elon	SC	-22.0064	0.0000	293.4
311		Western Illinois	MCon	-22.0577	0.0000	311.6
312		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-22.0977	0.0000	314.4
313		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-22.1244	0.0000	316.6
314		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-22.1866	0.0000	314.8
315		Savannah St.	ind	-22.3447	0.0000	310.7
316		Portland	WCC	-22.3852	0.0000	293.0
317		Idaho	WAC	-22.4042	0.0000	277.8
318		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-22.4200	0.0000	324.3
319		Montana St.	BSky	-22.4505	0.0000	315.9
320		James Madison	CAA	-22.6103	0.0000	294.7
321		St. Bonaventure	A10	-22.6726	0.0000	298.5
322		Texas St.	Slnd	-22.6802	0.0000	316.5
323		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-22.8143	0.0000	314.1
324		The Citadel	SC	-22.9080	0.0000	298.8
325		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-22.9281	0.0000	325.0
326		Iona	MAAC	-22.9751	0.0000	316.8
327		South Dakota St.	ind	-23.0116	0.0000	324.3
328		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-23.1506	0.0000	329.1
329		Winston Salem St.	ind	-23.2728	0.0000	320.4
330		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-23.6163	0.0000	310.7
331		North Florida	ASun	-23.6432	0.0000	329.5
332		Northern Colorado	BSky	-23.6657	0.0000	333.2
333		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.9936	0.0000	334.6
334		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-24.0934	0.0000	325.3
335		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-24.6141	0.0000	327.9
336		Denver	SB	-24.7612	0.0000	334.4

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, and to Jay Colemen for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com