Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Jan 29, 2008.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	9.8136	1.0000	1.9
2		Duke	ACC	9.5868	1.0000	3.5
3	X	Kansas	B12	9.0294	1.0000	3.6
4	X	Memphis	CUSA	8.2109	1.0000	3.2
5	X	Tennessee	SEC	8.1537	1.0000	2.9
6	X	UCLA	P10	7.5761	1.0000	7.5
7	X	Xavier	A10	6.4491	1.0000	9.2
8		Washington St.	P10	6.2269	1.0000	13.0
9		Georgetown	BE	6.1659	1.0000	11.1
10		Michigan St.	B10	6.1035	1.0000	11.9
11		Indiana	B10	5.9051	1.0000	16.9
12	X	Drake	MVC	4.9884	1.0000	16.1
13		Arizona	P10	4.7749	1.0000	11.4
14		Texas	B12	4.6346	1.0000	11.8
15	X	West Virginia	BE	4.3619	1.0000	21.0
16		Marquette	BE	4.2105	1.0000	19.4
17	X	Wisconsin	B10	4.1994	1.0000	19.2
18		Mississippi	SEC	3.9377	1.0000	22.9
19		Ohio St.	B10	3.8757	0.9999	21.9
20	X	Butler	Horz	3.7419	0.9999	30.9
21		Southern California	P10	3.6680	0.9999	28.2
22	X	Gonzaga	WCC	3.6523	0.9999	31.5
23		Oklahoma	B12	3.5047	0.9998	22.1
24		Clemson	ACC	3.4247	0.9997	28.3
25		Stanford	P10	3.3545	0.9996	29.5
26		Pittsburgh	BE	3.2203	0.9994	24.8
27		Florida	SEC	3.1825	0.9993	29.5
28		Connecticut	BE	3.1175	0.9991	21.7
29		Rhode Island	A10	3.0750	0.9989	31.1
30		Notre Dame	BE	2.9332	0.9983	33.3
31		St. Mary's	WCC	2.6522	0.9960	36.0
32		Kansas St.	B12	2.6143	0.9955	25.9
33		Louisville	BE	2.3257	0.9900	26.4
34		Baylor	B12	2.3006	0.9893	28.6
35		Mississippi St.	SEC	2.1832	0.9855	31.4
36	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	2.1348	0.9836	34.0
37		Vanderbilt	SEC	2.0671	0.9806	26.4
38		Arkansas	SEC	1.6698	0.9525	36.4
39		Texas A&M	B12	1.5730	0.9421	34.3
40	X	South Alabama	SB	1.5701	0.9418	45.5
41		Dayton	A10	1.4360	0.9245	32.9
42		Brigham Young	MWC	1.3516	0.9117	45.7
43		Miami FL	ACC	1.1653	0.8780	35.8
44		Kent St.	MAC	0.8048	0.7895	57.1
45		George Mason	CAA	0.6555	0.7439	56.8
46		Illinois St.	MVC	0.5216	0.6990	52.2
47		Syracuse	BE	0.4517	0.6743	36.4
48		Massachusetts	A10	0.1209	0.5481	47.4
49	X	Davidson	SC	0.0944	0.5376	65.2
50		Duquesne	A10	0.0385	0.5154	53.4
51		Saint Joseph's	A10	-0.2753	0.3915	53.0
52		Creighton	MVC	-0.8635	0.1939	56.5
53		Oregon	P10	-0.8694	0.1923	56.3
54		Purdue	B10	-0.9716	0.1656	69.7
55	X	Ohio	MAC	-0.9923	0.1605	64.1
56		UAB	CUSA	-1.0688	0.1426	62.2
57	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-1.1339	0.1284	69.9
58		Missouri	B12	-1.1434	0.1264	55.2
59		Houston	CUSA	-1.1582	0.1234	61.7
60		Western Kentucky	SB	-1.1837	0.1183	67.5
61		Southern Illinois	MVC	-1.2239	0.1105	64.6
62		Georgia Tech	ACC	-1.2371	0.1080	61.3
63		New Mexico	MWC	-1.3168	0.0940	63.8
64		Virginia Tech	ACC	-1.4710	0.0706	66.5
65		Maryland	ACC	-1.6006	0.0547	53.0
66		Charlotte	A10	-1.6112	0.0536	73.1
67		Oral Roberts	Sum	-1.8407	0.0328	81.1
68		Texas Tech	B12	-1.9068	0.0283	62.4
69	X	Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-1.9449	0.0259	80.1
70		San Diego St.	MWC	-2.1200	0.0170	66.3
71		Arizona St.	P10	-2.1259	0.0168	71.4
72		North Carolina St.	ACC	-2.3028	0.0106	70.2
73		Cleveland St.	Horz	-2.3458	0.0095	79.6
74		Providence	BE	-2.4610	0.0069	65.9
75		Villanova	BE	-2.7568	0.0029	76.2
76	X	Siena	MAAC	-2.8464	0.0022	88.5
77		California	P10	-2.8694	0.0021	65.8
78		Akron	MAC	-2.8996	0.0019	87.8
79		Kentucky	SEC	-2.9112	0.0018	74.3
80		Boise St.	WAC	-2.9386	0.0016	99.4
81		Florida St.	ACC	-2.9393	0.0016	64.3
82		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-3.0003	0.0013	88.7
83	X	Cal St. Northridge	BW	-3.0776	0.0010	92.9
84	X	Winthrop	BSth	-3.0793	0.0010	100.2
85		Seton Hall	BE	-3.1457	0.0008	73.8
86		Boston College	ACC	-3.4648	0.0003	72.0
87		Minnesota	B10	-3.6437	0.0001	80.8
88	X	IUPUI	Sum	-3.6706	0.0001	108.7
89		Wake Forest	ACC	-3.6957	0.0001	82.9
90		Utah	MWC	-3.7144	0.0001	75.8
91		Nevada	WAC	-3.7580	0.0001	89.3
92		Georgia	SEC	-3.7932	0.0001	89.1
93		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-4.1215	0.0000	100.8
94		Miami OH	MAC	-4.1361	0.0000	89.2
95		Temple	A10	-4.1838	0.0000	82.1
96		Wright St.	Horz	-4.3070	0.0000	98.5
97		Illinois	B10	-4.4619	0.0000	89.7
98		Washington	P10	-4.4628	0.0000	88.4
99		NC Asheville	BSth	-4.7322	0.0000	112.6
100		Valparaiso	Horz	-4.7561	0.0000	101.1
101		Chattanooga	SC	-4.8694	0.0000	102.2
102		Niagara	MAAC	-4.9990	0.0000	111.7
103		Central Florida	CUSA	-5.1923	0.0000	105.3
104		Utah St.	WAC	-5.2358	0.0000	115.0
105		Marist	MAAC	-5.2863	0.0000	106.8
106		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-5.5921	0.0000	120.1
107		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-5.7902	0.0000	114.6
108		Appalachian St.	SC	-6.0182	0.0000	129.9
109		Georgia Southern	SC	-6.0218	0.0000	119.3
110		Cornell	Ivy	-6.0887	0.0000	127.1
111		Virginia	ACC	-6.1002	0.0000	91.4
112	X	MD Baltimore County	AE	-6.2077	0.0000	132.8
113		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-6.3101	0.0000	102.7
114		Cincinnati	BE	-6.3748	0.0000	112.9
115	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-6.4251	0.0000	123.4
116	X	Northern Arizona	BSky	-6.4395	0.0000	136.0
117		South Carolina	SEC	-6.4729	0.0000	98.8
118		Pacific	BW	-6.4744	0.0000	133.1
119		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-6.5503	0.0000	127.3
120		Hampton	MEAC	-6.6029	0.0000	133.2
121	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-6.6158	0.0000	123.0
122		Lafayette	Pat	-6.6377	0.0000	131.0
123		Alabama	SEC	-6.6732	0.0000	90.7
124		NC Greensboro	SC	-6.7751	0.0000	130.5
125		Marshall	CUSA	-6.7850	0.0000	121.0
126		Rider	MAAC	-6.8851	0.0000	133.7
127		Northern Iowa	MVC	-6.9073	0.0000	121.6
128		Iowa St.	B12	-6.9131	0.0000	111.2
129		Tulane	CUSA	-7.0781	0.0000	121.3
130		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-7.2720	0.0000	125.5
131	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-7.3896	0.0000	146.5
132		Bradley	MVC	-7.6877	0.0000	121.2
133		Oklahoma St.	B12	-7.7212	0.0000	110.3
134		American	Pat	-7.7268	0.0000	147.3
135	X	Brown	Ivy	-7.7568	0.0000	137.1
136		Nebraska	B12	-7.7706	0.0000	121.7
137		North Texas	SB	-7.8568	0.0000	143.7
138		Wagner	NEC	-7.9163	0.0000	153.6
139		Belmont	ASun	-7.9442	0.0000	158.4
140	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-8.0316	0.0000	153.0
141	X	East Tennessee St.	ASun	-8.0628	0.0000	145.6
142		Old Dominion	CAA	-8.0828	0.0000	133.7
143		Tulsa	CUSA	-8.4551	0.0000	137.3
144		Austin Peay	OVC	-8.4986	0.0000	158.4
145		DePaul	BE	-8.6722	0.0000	124.8
146		Auburn	SEC	-8.6761	0.0000	121.4
147		Indiana St.	MVC	-8.7238	0.0000	138.4
148		Missouri St.	MVC	-8.9847	0.0000	129.2
149		Portland St.	BSky	-9.1433	0.0000	169.9
150		South Florida	BE	-9.2353	0.0000	126.9
151		San Diego	WCC	-9.3637	0.0000	142.2
152	X	Murray St.	OVC	-9.5863	0.0000	171.1
153		Richmond	A10	-9.6468	0.0000	148.2
154		St. John's	BE	-9.7130	0.0000	124.4
155		St. Louis	A10	-9.8048	0.0000	134.0
156		Penn St.	B10	-9.9408	0.0000	144.1
157		Western Michigan	MAC	-9.9666	0.0000	173.0
158		Fordham	A10	-10.0521	0.0000	145.1
159		Delaware	CAA	-10.1039	0.0000	167.2
160		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-10.1284	0.0000	176.7
161		New Orleans	SB	-10.1455	0.0000	164.0
162		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-10.2641	0.0000	161.4
163		Yale	Ivy	-10.3008	0.0000	173.0
164		Bucknell	Pat	-10.4062	0.0000	172.6
165		NC Wilmington	CAA	-10.4245	0.0000	170.2
166		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-10.4410	0.0000	152.9
167		Sacred Heart	NEC	-10.5457	0.0000	186.4
168		Quinnipiac	NEC	-10.5547	0.0000	187.1
169		Loyola MD	MAAC	-10.5972	0.0000	176.9
170		Santa Clara	WCC	-10.7383	0.0000	165.4
171		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-10.7834	0.0000	175.2
172		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-10.8221	0.0000	157.6
173		Lamar	Slnd	-10.9797	0.0000	182.5
174		Fresno St.	WAC	-11.0710	0.0000	161.6
175		Oakland	Sum	-11.1186	0.0000	183.8
176		Iowa	B10	-11.1240	0.0000	160.0
177		Texas Christian	MWC	-11.2355	0.0000	161.7
178		William & Mary	CAA	-11.3308	0.0000	182.0
179		Jacksonville	ASun	-11.3542	0.0000	191.3
180		James Madison	CAA	-11.3732	0.0000	178.9
181		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-11.4995	0.0000	193.2
182		Middle Tennessee	SB	-11.5112	0.0000	172.2
183		Air Force	MWC	-11.6987	0.0000	168.6
184		Wichita St.	MVC	-11.7768	0.0000	160.0
185		Montana St.	BSky	-11.7869	0.0000	189.6
186		Vermont	AE	-12.1716	0.0000	199.2
187		UC Irvine	BW	-12.2128	0.0000	179.3
188		Albany	AE	-12.2935	0.0000	201.1
189	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-12.4376	0.0000	218.0
190		Binghamton	AE	-12.4504	0.0000	212.0
191		Rutgers	BE	-12.6404	0.0000	169.0
192		North Dakota St.	Sum	-12.6467	0.0000	196.5
193		Weber St.	BSky	-12.6598	0.0000	200.2
194		Long Island	NEC	-12.7059	0.0000	196.6
195		Colorado	B12	-12.8446	0.0000	164.4
196		Liberty	BSth	-12.8844	0.0000	200.2
197		Wofford	SC	-12.9460	0.0000	193.7
198		San Jose St.	WAC	-13.0018	0.0000	200.8
199		Central Michigan	MAC	-13.1897	0.0000	199.0
200		Bowling Green	MAC	-13.4251	0.0000	195.8
201		Michigan	B10	-13.5736	0.0000	175.0
202		Central Connecticut	NEC	-13.5954	0.0000	214.1
203		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-13.7455	0.0000	213.9
204		Montana	BSky	-14.0265	0.0000	220.6
205		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-14.1001	0.0000	223.2
206		East Carolina	CUSA	-14.1536	0.0000	209.7
207		College of Charleston	SC	-14.2427	0.0000	202.3
208		Fairfield	MAAC	-14.3262	0.0000	215.8
209		George Washington	A10	-14.3475	0.0000	189.4
210		Morehead St.	OVC	-14.4286	0.0000	227.5
211		Colgate	Pat	-14.4702	0.0000	214.2
212		Lehigh	Pat	-14.5544	0.0000	226.1
213		Cal Poly	BW	-14.7796	0.0000	211.6
214		Hawaii	WAC	-15.0475	0.0000	218.1
215		Tennessee St.	OVC	-15.0814	0.0000	235.1
216		Youngstown St.	Horz	-15.1859	0.0000	198.7
217		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-15.2707	0.0000	212.6
218		Northwestern	B10	-15.3440	0.0000	195.6
219		Toledo	MAC	-15.5132	0.0000	211.9
220		Pepperdine	WCC	-15.5192	0.0000	208.0
221		Towson	CAA	-15.5533	0.0000	226.9
222		Troy	SB	-15.5554	0.0000	215.2
223		Louisiana St.	SEC	-15.7242	0.0000	184.8
224		Army	Pat	-15.8046	0.0000	238.7
225		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-15.8406	0.0000	236.4
226		Hartford	AE	-15.8642	0.0000	234.2
227		Denver	SB	-15.9740	0.0000	238.0
228		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-16.0174	0.0000	224.6
229		Arkansas St.	SB	-16.0228	0.0000	237.0
230		Drexel	CAA	-16.0609	0.0000	214.5
231		Chicago St.	ind	-16.1322	0.0000	234.6
232		Northeastern	CAA	-16.2091	0.0000	219.1
233		Columbia	Ivy	-16.2105	0.0000	244.2
234		Hofstra	CAA	-16.2291	0.0000	232.3
235		High Point	BSth	-16.3700	0.0000	242.1
236		Gardner Webb	ASun	-16.3719	0.0000	247.5
237		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-16.3874	0.0000	255.0
238		Delaware St.	MEAC	-16.4276	0.0000	241.3
239		Iona	MAAC	-16.4855	0.0000	235.0
240		La Salle	A10	-16.7894	0.0000	219.1
241		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-17.0057	0.0000	240.6
242		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-17.1745	0.0000	257.8
243		Harvard	Ivy	-17.2300	0.0000	256.0
244		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-17.3948	0.0000	257.2
245		Utah Valley St.	ind	-17.4948	0.0000	267.6
246		Wyoming	MWC	-17.5209	0.0000	216.6
247		Stetson	ASun	-17.5270	0.0000	257.4
248		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-17.7592	0.0000	278.4
249		Western Illinois	Sum	-17.8281	0.0000	253.5
250		Navy	Pat	-17.9597	0.0000	267.0
251		Southern	SWAC	-18.0240	0.0000	273.0
252		St. Bonaventure	A10	-18.1469	0.0000	228.7
253		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-18.1885	0.0000	249.9
254		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-18.2529	0.0000	258.7
255		Lipscomb	ASun	-18.2852	0.0000	269.8
256		Centenary	Sum	-18.2968	0.0000	262.2
257		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-18.4657	0.0000	270.2
258		Evansville	MVC	-18.4707	0.0000	233.7
259		Dartmouth	Ivy	-18.5500	0.0000	274.8
260		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-18.5543	0.0000	293.6
261		Florida A&M	MEAC	-18.5640	0.0000	270.2
262		Mercer	ASun	-18.5733	0.0000	285.9
263		Florida International	SB	-18.5800	0.0000	243.9
264		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-18.6193	0.0000	258.9
265		Florida Atlantic	SB	-18.6234	0.0000	249.2
266		Manhattan	MAAC	-18.6408	0.0000	267.6
267		Eastern Washington	BSky	-18.6556	0.0000	268.1
268		Idaho St.	BSky	-18.8191	0.0000	273.9
269		Elon	SC	-18.8531	0.0000	258.8
270		Campbell	ASun	-18.9088	0.0000	282.1
271		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-18.9274	0.0000	253.3
272		Colorado St.	MWC	-18.9659	0.0000	227.2
273		Buffalo	MAC	-19.0745	0.0000	247.0
274		Texas St.	Slnd	-19.0813	0.0000	271.5
275		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-19.1031	0.0000	270.0
276		Northern Colorado	BSky	-19.1216	0.0000	282.8
277		San Francisco	WCC	-19.1932	0.0000	255.8
278		UC Davis	BW	-19.2142	0.0000	273.0
279		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-19.2312	0.0000	269.8
280		Oregon St.	P10	-19.2645	0.0000	230.4
281		Texas Pan American	ind	-19.4013	0.0000	300.6
282		New Hampshire	AE	-19.4478	0.0000	286.2
283		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-19.5201	0.0000	287.6
284		Southern Utah	Sum	-19.5461	0.0000	269.1
285		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-19.5539	0.0000	289.1
286		McNeese St.	Slnd	-19.5784	0.0000	277.0
287		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-20.1696	0.0000	300.6
288		Savannah St.	ind	-20.1876	0.0000	293.5
289		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-20.2023	0.0000	287.5
290		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-20.3124	0.0000	296.7
291		Ball St.	MAC	-20.3910	0.0000	270.1
292		Samford	OVC	-20.4157	0.0000	297.6
293		Princeton	Ivy	-20.4224	0.0000	295.5
294		Georgia St.	CAA	-20.4691	0.0000	283.7
295		Northern Illinois	MAC	-20.5574	0.0000	272.9
296		Boston University	AE	-20.5680	0.0000	290.8
297		St. Francis PA	NEC	-20.9021	0.0000	298.6
298		Rice	CUSA	-20.9696	0.0000	267.7
299		Jackson St.	SWAC	-21.0901	0.0000	300.0
300		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-21.1416	0.0000	306.4
301		Portland	WCC	-21.1494	0.0000	276.7
302		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-21.3671	0.0000	307.9
303		St. Francis NY	NEC	-21.4048	0.0000	305.2
304		South Dakota St.	Sum	-21.4958	0.0000	298.3
305		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-21.5829	0.0000	303.3
306		Western Carolina	SC	-21.6173	0.0000	289.1
307		Detroit	Horz	-21.6285	0.0000	280.5
308		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-21.8270	0.0000	299.1
309		Monmouth	NEC	-21.9942	0.0000	308.6
310		St. Peter's	MAAC	-22.3148	0.0000	299.7
311		Idaho	WAC	-22.3823	0.0000	304.1
312		UC Riverside	BW	-22.4446	0.0000	293.1
313		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-22.5187	0.0000	307.0
314		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-22.6483	0.0000	310.8
315		Long Beach St.	BW	-22.6698	0.0000	305.8
316		Coppin St.	MEAC	-22.7636	0.0000	305.7
317		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-22.7749	0.0000	326.4
318		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-22.8051	0.0000	329.4
319		Longwood	ind	-23.1615	0.0000	331.3
320		Maine	AE	-23.2953	0.0000	324.6
321		Stony Brook	AE	-23.3000	0.0000	325.6
322		Furman	SC	-23.3446	0.0000	312.3
323		Texas Southern	SWAC	-23.4721	0.0000	322.7
324		Radford	BSth	-23.5702	0.0000	326.4
325		Howard	MEAC	-23.5740	0.0000	322.7
326		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-23.5763	0.0000	330.7
327		North Carolina Central	ind	-23.6448	0.0000	320.3
328		Charleston Southern	BSth	-23.6485	0.0000	324.9
329		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.8069	0.0000	337.7
330		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-23.8130	0.0000	314.9
331		Canisius	MAAC	-23.8721	0.0000	322.8
332		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-23.8932	0.0000	336.3
333		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-24.0240	0.0000	304.2
334		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-24.2075	0.0000	340.9
335		Sacramento St.	BSky	-24.2342	0.0000	329.5
336		Presbyterian	ind	-24.2769	0.0000	325.9
337		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-24.4417	0.0000	337.5
338		Grambling	SWAC	-24.7595	0.0000	337.6
339		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-24.8087	0.0000	336.1
340		The Citadel	SC	-25.3884	0.0000	328.5
341		North Florida	ASun	-25.7109	0.0000	338.6

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com