Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Dec 29, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1		North Carolina	ACC	9.2255	1.0000	1.7
2	X	Duke	ACC	8.7818	1.0000	2.5
3	X	Kansas	B12	8.0619	1.0000	5.1
4	X	Memphis	CUSA	7.3488	1.0000	5.9
5	X	Tennessee	SEC	7.3164	1.0000	3.8
6	X	West Virginia	BE	7.2407	1.0000	9.7
7		Marquette	BE	6.3132	1.0000	11.7
8		Mississippi	SEC	6.1408	1.0000	11.2
9		Arizona	P10	5.7479	1.0000	8.6
10	X	Xavier	A10	5.2590	1.0000	15.7
11		Indiana	B10	5.2263	1.0000	17.8
12		Michigan St.	B10	5.1795	1.0000	13.9
13		Rhode Island	A10	5.1124	1.0000	17.3
14	X	Wisconsin	B10	4.8604	1.0000	17.1
15		Texas	B12	4.8346	1.0000	13.5
16	X	UCLA	P10	4.7818	1.0000	20.8
17		Texas A&M	B12	4.6466	1.0000	19.4
18		Pittsburgh	BE	4.4126	1.0000	17.4
19		Washington St.	P10	4.4003	1.0000	21.5
20		Oklahoma	B12	3.9498	1.0000	19.9
21	X	Butler	Horz	3.7032	0.9999	35.0
22		Clemson	ACC	3.6352	0.9999	25.2
23		Georgetown	BE	3.6128	0.9998	28.7
24		St. Mary's	WCC	3.1831	0.9993	31.7
25		Baylor	B12	3.0884	0.9990	27.9
26	X	Drake	MVC	2.9080	0.9982	34.1
27		Stanford	P10	2.8881	0.9981	29.2
28	X	Gonzaga	WCC	2.8059	0.9975	34.7
29		Dayton	A10	2.7574	0.9971	27.2
30		Arkansas	SEC	2.6206	0.9956	30.8
31		Miami FL	ACC	2.5969	0.9953	27.8
32		Southern California	P10	2.5802	0.9951	34.7
33		Vanderbilt	SEC	2.5560	0.9947	24.6
34		Ohio St.	B10	2.1807	0.9854	31.5
35		Notre Dame	BE	2.1459	0.9841	38.4
36		New Mexico	MWC	1.5415	0.9384	45.9
37		Duquesne	A10	1.2674	0.8975	46.7
38		Syracuse	BE	1.2579	0.8958	31.8
39		Minnesota	B10	1.2098	0.8868	39.7
40		Florida St.	ACC	1.1680	0.8786	38.1
41		California	P10	1.1049	0.8654	38.0
42		Connecticut	BE	0.8888	0.8130	36.6
43	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.7133	0.7622	39.0
44		Providence	BE	0.6269	0.7346	44.8
45		Missouri	B12	0.5538	0.7101	43.8
46	X	Holy Cross	Pat	0.5442	0.7069	50.6
47		Oregon	P10	0.2884	0.6135	46.6
48		Massachusetts	A10	0.2185	0.5865	50.2
49		Illinois	B10	0.1286	0.5512	49.7
50		George Mason	CAA	0.0848	0.5338	61.1
51		Florida	SEC	0.0451	0.5180	52.5
52		Brigham Young	MWC	0.0265	0.5106	58.1
53		Kent St.	MAC	-0.1647	0.4346	62.6
54	X	Winthrop	BSth	-0.4157	0.3388	72.0
55		Louisville	BE	-0.4173	0.3382	51.7
56		Illinois St.	MVC	-0.4642	0.3213	62.1
57	X	Miami OH	MAC	-0.6853	0.2466	67.1
58	X	South Alabama	SB	-0.7245	0.2344	67.6
59		Creighton	MVC	-0.9808	0.1633	61.8
60		Virginia	ACC	-0.9854	0.1622	58.3
61		Valparaiso	Horz	-1.0326	0.1509	67.3
62	X	Texas Arlington	Slnd	-1.3348	0.0910	77.9
63		UAB	CUSA	-1.5044	0.0662	63.2
64		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-1.5989	0.0549	73.7
65	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-2.0780	0.0189	83.3
66		San Diego St.	MWC	-2.1034	0.0177	61.8
67		Western Kentucky	SB	-2.1458	0.0159	83.7
68	X	Siena	MAAC	-2.1742	0.0148	83.3
69		Houston	CUSA	-2.2100	0.0136	73.2
70		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-2.2165	0.0133	80.1
71		Utah	MWC	-2.2702	0.0116	70.2
72		Villanova	BE	-2.3352	0.0098	67.9
73		Kansas St.	B12	-2.3412	0.0096	63.4
74		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-2.3475	0.0094	84.8
75		Georgia Tech	ACC	-2.3740	0.0088	69.0
76		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-2.4846	0.0065	72.5
77		Arizona St.	P10	-2.5421	0.0055	66.3
78		Boston College	ACC	-2.5988	0.0047	57.0
79		Alabama	SEC	-2.8403	0.0023	68.7
80		Niagara	MAAC	-2.8438	0.0022	91.8
81	X	Davidson	SC	-2.9050	0.0018	98.5
82		Nevada	WAC	-2.9238	0.0017	82.5
83		Ohio	MAC	-2.9492	0.0016	79.1
84		North Texas	SB	-3.0587	0.0011	91.3
85		Mississippi St.	SEC	-3.0817	0.0010	70.0
86		Georgia Southern	SC	-3.1749	0.0007	92.3
87		Saint Joseph's	A10	-3.2793	0.0005	73.1
88		South Carolina	SEC	-3.3324	0.0004	72.3
89		Southern Illinois	MVC	-3.3921	0.0003	83.1
90		James Madison	CAA	-3.4069	0.0003	97.4
91		Texas Tech	B12	-3.5088	0.0002	75.5
92		South Florida	BE	-3.5769	0.0002	88.6
93		North Carolina St.	ACC	-3.9345	0.0000	83.8
94	X	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-3.9368	0.0000	102.0
95		Nebraska	B12	-4.1655	0.0000	92.4
96		Akron	MAC	-4.2006	0.0000	97.9
97		Virginia Tech	ACC	-4.2199	0.0000	85.9
98	X	IUPUI	Sum	-4.3380	0.0000	117.4
99		Boise St.	WAC	-4.4677	0.0000	111.6
100		Oral Roberts	Sum	-4.8757	0.0000	117.6
101	X	MD Baltimore County	AE	-5.0281	0.0000	117.4
102		Wright St.	Horz	-5.1340	0.0000	110.9
103	X	Hampton	MEAC	-5.1389	0.0000	113.7
104		Cleveland St.	Horz	-5.2675	0.0000	102.5
105		Temple	A10	-5.3450	0.0000	98.0
106		Charlotte	A10	-5.3561	0.0000	110.0
107		Wichita St.	MVC	-5.5341	0.0000	100.6
108		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-5.5951	0.0000	106.4
109		Oklahoma St.	B12	-5.6039	0.0000	92.3
110		Chattanooga	SC	-5.7851	0.0000	116.5
111		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-5.9164	0.0000	106.5
112		Wake Forest	ACC	-6.0991	0.0000	109.4
113	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-6.1851	0.0000	115.5
114		Washington	P10	-6.3843	0.0000	98.3
115		Tulane	CUSA	-6.5760	0.0000	117.3
116		Maryland	ACC	-6.5798	0.0000	93.2
117		Central Florida	CUSA	-6.5823	0.0000	117.1
118		Pacific	BW	-6.6798	0.0000	131.1
119		Kentucky	SEC	-6.8190	0.0000	108.4
120		Northern Iowa	MVC	-6.9458	0.0000	123.0
121	X	Brown	Ivy	-7.2234	0.0000	134.3
122		Old Dominion	CAA	-7.3861	0.0000	122.5
123		Seton Hall	BE	-7.4190	0.0000	107.7
124		Utah St.	WAC	-7.6637	0.0000	137.8
125	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-7.6856	0.0000	150.9
126		Fresno St.	WAC	-7.7086	0.0000	129.8
127		Penn St.	B10	-7.7218	0.0000	119.8
128		Morgan St.	MEAC	-7.9024	0.0000	151.7
129		Purdue	B10	-8.0180	0.0000	129.1
130		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-8.0634	0.0000	138.2
131		Marist	MAAC	-8.1305	0.0000	137.2
132		Lafayette	Pat	-8.3729	0.0000	147.0
133		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-8.3945	0.0000	130.3
134		Georgia	SEC	-8.4373	0.0000	127.0
135		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-8.4380	0.0000	159.7
136		St. Louis	A10	-8.4881	0.0000	124.3
137		Long Island	NEC	-8.4900	0.0000	153.6
138		Tulsa	CUSA	-8.5016	0.0000	141.4
139		Santa Clara	WCC	-8.6758	0.0000	137.0
140		Northeastern	CAA	-8.6993	0.0000	141.3
141		Missouri St.	MVC	-8.8373	0.0000	127.5
142		Louisiana St.	SEC	-8.8823	0.0000	124.0
143		Northern Arizona	BSky	-8.9235	0.0000	163.1
144		Bradley	MVC	-8.9498	0.0000	126.3
145		NC Greensboro	SC	-9.0227	0.0000	155.7
146		St. John's	BE	-9.1704	0.0000	117.1
147		New Orleans	SB	-9.2242	0.0000	156.3
148	X	East Tennessee St.	ASun	-9.2520	0.0000	160.7
149	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-9.4200	0.0000	165.3
150		Central Michigan	MAC	-9.4814	0.0000	156.2
151	X	Montana St.	BSky	-9.6694	0.0000	163.9
152		NC Asheville	BSth	-9.7525	0.0000	163.2
153		Albany	AE	-9.8211	0.0000	174.8
154		Auburn	SEC	-9.8665	0.0000	135.3
155		Appalachian St.	SC	-10.0436	0.0000	171.0
156		American	Pat	-10.0563	0.0000	164.6
157		Colorado	B12	-10.0633	0.0000	137.0
158		Rider	MAAC	-10.3814	0.0000	171.0
159		San Diego	WCC	-10.4336	0.0000	143.2
160		Cornell	Ivy	-10.4745	0.0000	178.7
161		Marshall	CUSA	-10.5087	0.0000	156.5
162		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-10.5521	0.0000	169.0
163		Troy	SB	-10.6333	0.0000	164.8
164		North Dakota St.	Sum	-10.7512	0.0000	175.1
165		Montana	BSky	-10.7542	0.0000	180.0
166		Oakland	Sum	-10.7552	0.0000	182.4
167		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-10.7888	0.0000	167.0
168		Portland St.	BSky	-10.9468	0.0000	186.3
169		College of Charleston	SC	-11.0219	0.0000	170.3
170		NC Wilmington	CAA	-11.0821	0.0000	171.7
171		UC Irvine	BW	-11.1228	0.0000	167.0
172		Wagner	NEC	-11.2700	0.0000	187.9
173		Yale	Ivy	-11.2988	0.0000	179.7
174		DePaul	BE	-11.4669	0.0000	142.7
175		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-11.5128	0.0000	182.1
176		Iowa St.	B12	-11.5175	0.0000	142.2
177		Drexel	CAA	-11.5689	0.0000	171.5
178		Belmont	ASun	-11.5843	0.0000	201.4
179		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-11.8609	0.0000	197.7
180		Western Michigan	MAC	-11.9165	0.0000	187.9
181		Michigan	B10	-11.9167	0.0000	151.4
182		Wofford	SC	-11.9829	0.0000	183.1
183		Denver	SB	-12.3138	0.0000	197.5
184		Bucknell	Pat	-12.4307	0.0000	190.5
185		Toledo	MAC	-12.4459	0.0000	182.2
186		Gardner Webb	ASun	-12.4587	0.0000	202.3
187		Colorado St.	MWC	-12.5480	0.0000	161.3
188		Cincinnati	BE	-12.6250	0.0000	159.0
189		Fordham	A10	-12.8108	0.0000	171.6
190	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-12.8183	0.0000	221.7
191		Sacred Heart	NEC	-12.9375	0.0000	207.6
192		Richmond	A10	-12.9888	0.0000	182.7
193		Colgate	Pat	-13.1116	0.0000	198.3
194		Pepperdine	WCC	-13.4195	0.0000	189.3
195		Indiana St.	MVC	-13.4774	0.0000	174.5
196		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-13.5076	0.0000	205.8
197		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-13.5665	0.0000	211.1
198		East Carolina	CUSA	-13.6106	0.0000	200.3
199		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-13.6411	0.0000	182.9
200		Murray St.	OVC	-13.6747	0.0000	218.8
201		Iona	MAAC	-13.8446	0.0000	207.9
202		Northwestern	B10	-13.8606	0.0000	180.5
203		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-13.8872	0.0000	211.6
204		New Hampshire	AE	-14.3271	0.0000	225.1
205		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-14.4040	0.0000	198.8
206		Liberty	BSth	-14.4521	0.0000	219.6
207		Air Force	MWC	-14.4667	0.0000	190.8
208		Columbia	Ivy	-14.5423	0.0000	225.2
209		Iowa	B10	-14.9048	0.0000	197.3
210		Texas Christian	MWC	-14.9235	0.0000	193.4
211		Manhattan	MAAC	-14.9709	0.0000	228.9
212		Tennessee St.	OVC	-14.9856	0.0000	232.2
213		Fairfield	MAAC	-15.0558	0.0000	217.6
214		Weber St.	BSky	-15.1737	0.0000	225.2
215		Delaware	CAA	-15.2280	0.0000	219.3
216		Harvard	Ivy	-15.2315	0.0000	226.6
217		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-15.2864	0.0000	243.5
218		Central Connecticut	NEC	-15.3011	0.0000	234.5
219		Wyoming	MWC	-15.3255	0.0000	193.4
220		Rutgers	BE	-15.3408	0.0000	182.0
221		George Washington	A10	-15.4214	0.0000	204.6
222		McNeese St.	Slnd	-15.4586	0.0000	232.9
223		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-15.4957	0.0000	233.7
224		St. Bonaventure	A10	-15.5130	0.0000	206.4
225		Jacksonville	ASun	-15.5449	0.0000	238.0
226		Buffalo	MAC	-15.5627	0.0000	214.3
227		Oregon St.	P10	-15.6211	0.0000	192.8
228		Quinnipiac	NEC	-15.6238	0.0000	240.8
229		Lehigh	Pat	-15.7845	0.0000	235.0
230		William & Mary	CAA	-15.7910	0.0000	226.8
231		Middle Tennessee	SB	-15.9383	0.0000	223.7
232		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-15.9862	0.0000	235.0
233		La Salle	A10	-16.0488	0.0000	217.5
234		Northern Colorado	BSky	-16.1100	0.0000	246.1
235		Lipscomb	ASun	-16.1911	0.0000	252.8
236		High Point	BSth	-16.2494	0.0000	239.5
237		Detroit	Horz	-16.2905	0.0000	226.5
238		Youngstown St.	Horz	-16.2925	0.0000	212.3
239		Elon	SC	-16.4481	0.0000	237.8
240		San Francisco	WCC	-16.4657	0.0000	221.7
241		San Jose St.	WAC	-16.4742	0.0000	241.6
242		Portland	WCC	-16.6278	0.0000	227.4
243		Loyola MD	MAAC	-16.6893	0.0000	237.1
244		Utah Valley St.	ind	-16.7334	0.0000	265.6
245		Southern Utah	Sum	-16.7483	0.0000	242.3
246		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-16.8567	0.0000	237.6
247		Cal Poly	BW	-16.9143	0.0000	235.7
248		Boston University	AE	-16.9408	0.0000	249.0
249		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-17.0957	0.0000	256.9
250		Bowling Green	MAC	-17.1657	0.0000	232.4
251		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-17.1802	0.0000	260.7
252		Centenary	Sum	-17.2031	0.0000	251.8
253		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-17.2185	0.0000	256.7
254		Hawaii	WAC	-17.2823	0.0000	243.5
255		Mercer	ASun	-17.3043	0.0000	268.8
256		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-17.4972	0.0000	273.0
257		Eastern Washington	BSky	-17.5116	0.0000	253.8
258		Hartford	AE	-17.5283	0.0000	247.2
259		Vermont	AE	-17.5426	0.0000	257.8
260		Hofstra	CAA	-17.6352	0.0000	245.3
261		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-17.6470	0.0000	259.3
262		Delaware St.	MEAC	-17.7280	0.0000	260.6
263		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-17.7280	0.0000	236.1
264		Navy	Pat	-17.7498	0.0000	259.7
265		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-17.8355	0.0000	263.8
266		South Dakota St.	Sum	-17.9610	0.0000	263.4
267		Army	Pat	-18.0326	0.0000	255.7
268		Princeton	Ivy	-18.2241	0.0000	272.1
269		Arkansas St.	SB	-18.4376	0.0000	262.6
270		Lamar	Slnd	-18.5065	0.0000	265.6
271		Southern	SWAC	-18.8821	0.0000	278.9
272		St. Francis NY	NEC	-18.9057	0.0000	276.3
273		St. Peter's	MAAC	-18.9955	0.0000	266.4
274		Chicago St.	ind	-19.0241	0.0000	268.8
275		St. Francis PA	NEC	-19.0457	0.0000	279.4
276		Evansville	MVC	-19.0807	0.0000	235.0
277		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-19.2001	0.0000	293.8
278		UC Davis	BW	-19.5003	0.0000	276.1
279		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-19.5066	0.0000	288.9
280		Binghamton	AE	-19.6391	0.0000	292.3
281		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-19.6702	0.0000	281.7
282		Morehead St.	OVC	-19.6850	0.0000	287.2
283		Coppin St.	MEAC	-19.8325	0.0000	274.7
284		Towson	CAA	-19.9706	0.0000	277.7
285		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-20.0950	0.0000	295.8
286		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-20.1065	0.0000	287.8
287		Dartmouth	Ivy	-20.1862	0.0000	292.7
288		Samford	OVC	-20.2019	0.0000	295.8
289		Florida Atlantic	SB	-20.2609	0.0000	270.5
290		Stetson	ASun	-20.3868	0.0000	289.2
291		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-20.5670	0.0000	307.8
292		Campbell	ASun	-20.5778	0.0000	302.6
293		Long Beach St.	BW	-20.6511	0.0000	284.4
294		UC Riverside	BW	-20.6844	0.0000	270.0
295		Texas St.	Slnd	-20.7238	0.0000	284.9
296		Rice	CUSA	-20.8156	0.0000	271.4
297		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-20.8715	0.0000	274.2
298		Florida International	SB	-20.9608	0.0000	276.7
299		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-21.3044	0.0000	295.7
300		Savannah St.	ind	-21.3395	0.0000	307.3
301		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-21.3606	0.0000	318.6
302		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-21.4350	0.0000	311.1
303		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-21.4752	0.0000	285.7
304		Texas Pan American	ind	-21.5999	0.0000	318.3
305		Western Carolina	SC	-21.6910	0.0000	293.5
306		Radford	BSth	-21.8418	0.0000	303.8
307		Idaho	WAC	-21.8502	0.0000	298.0
308		Maine	AE	-21.8724	0.0000	304.4
309		Jackson St.	SWAC	-21.8792	0.0000	307.0
310		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-21.9828	0.0000	319.6
311		Georgia St.	CAA	-22.0228	0.0000	290.0
312		Charleston Southern	BSth	-22.0310	0.0000	307.0
313		Western Illinois	Sum	-22.1404	0.0000	300.1
314		Monmouth	NEC	-22.1540	0.0000	312.9
315		Texas Southern	SWAC	-22.1940	0.0000	312.1
316		Stony Brook	AE	-22.3548	0.0000	319.2
317		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-22.4244	0.0000	310.7
318		Northern Illinois	MAC	-22.7568	0.0000	299.0
319		Ball St.	MAC	-22.8874	0.0000	299.2
320		Longwood	ind	-22.9375	0.0000	326.3
321		Sacramento St.	BSky	-23.0596	0.0000	318.0
322		Canisius	MAAC	-23.1176	0.0000	314.3
323		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-23.1404	0.0000	292.2
324		Furman	SC	-23.2021	0.0000	312.5
325		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-23.2052	0.0000	310.3
326		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-23.3055	0.0000	330.8
327		Florida A&M	MEAC	-23.4946	0.0000	318.4
328		Idaho St.	BSky	-23.6100	0.0000	321.5
329		North Carolina Central	ind	-23.6486	0.0000	323.0
330		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-23.7170	0.0000	312.6
331		The Citadel	SC	-23.7908	0.0000	312.9
332		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-23.7959	0.0000	336.8
333		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-23.8714	0.0000	340.8
334		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-24.0312	0.0000	336.8
335		Howard	MEAC	-24.0653	0.0000	324.0
336		Presbyterian	ind	-24.0699	0.0000	327.9
337		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-24.0982	0.0000	332.0
338		Grambling	SWAC	-24.2797	0.0000	336.8
339		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-24.2839	0.0000	337.9
340		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-24.3297	0.0000	336.0
341		North Florida	ASun	-25.2057	0.0000	338.5

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com