Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Nov 27, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	Duke	ACC	9.4406	1.0000	1.5
2		North Carolina	ACC	8.8430	1.0000	2.0
3	X	West Virginia	BE	7.5361	1.0000	8.1
4	X	UCLA	P10	7.0961	1.0000	6.9
5	X	Kansas	B12	6.7745	1.0000	7.9
6	X	Memphis	CUSA	6.2107	1.0000	12.4
7		Texas	B12	6.1351	1.0000	6.5
8		Louisville	BE	5.7261	1.0000	12.9
9		Tennessee	SEC	5.5888	1.0000	9.1
10	X	Xavier	A10	5.5827	1.0000	12.6
11		Texas A&M	B12	5.3085	1.0000	13.2
12	X	Wisconsin	B10	4.7073	1.0000	22.6
13	X	Gonzaga	WCC	4.4706	1.0000	21.2
14		Pittsburgh	BE	4.0617	1.0000	21.3
15		Virginia	ACC	4.0293	1.0000	19.9
16	X	Brigham Young	MWC	3.8570	0.9999	23.9
17	X	Butler	Horz	3.8514	0.9999	28.6
18		Clemson	ACC	3.8306	0.9999	23.0
19	X	Florida	SEC	3.6634	0.9999	25.8
20		Illinois	B10	3.4585	0.9997	22.7
21		Ohio St.	B10	3.1139	0.9991	29.6
22		Oregon	P10	3.0373	0.9988	27.6
23		Stanford	P10	2.9719	0.9985	30.4
24		Michigan St.	B10	2.9664	0.9985	28.9
25		Florida St.	ACC	2.6517	0.9960	31.2
26		Missouri	B12	2.6515	0.9960	30.4
27		Arizona	P10	2.6039	0.9954	24.1
28		Indiana	B10	2.5497	0.9946	35.1
29		Southern California	P10	2.4593	0.9930	34.4
30		Washington St.	P10	2.4445	0.9927	32.1
31		Marquette	BE	2.2927	0.9891	32.7
32		Kentucky	SEC	2.2294	0.9871	32.5
33		Georgetown	BE	1.9914	0.9768	36.7
34		Notre Dame	BE	1.9643	0.9753	38.0
35		Vanderbilt	SEC	1.8552	0.9682	33.9
36		Oklahoma	B12	1.7960	0.9638	37.6
37		Mississippi	SEC	1.6522	0.9507	41.6
38	X	Miami OH	MAC	1.4168	0.9217	47.4
39		Southern Illinois	MVC	1.3270	0.9077	39.7
40		Miami FL	ACC	1.2497	0.8943	34.1
41		Villanova	BE	1.2288	0.8904	41.1
42	X	Creighton	MVC	1.0612	0.8557	46.0
43		Baylor	B12	0.9315	0.8242	42.0
44		Syracuse	BE	0.8910	0.8135	36.7
45	X	George Mason	CAA	0.6620	0.7460	50.8
46		Arkansas	SEC	0.6222	0.7331	40.0
47	X	Davidson	SC	0.5886	0.7219	61.2
48		Providence	BE	0.3954	0.6537	45.9
49		Rhode Island	A10	0.3245	0.6272	48.7
50		New Mexico	MWC	0.3194	0.6253	50.2
51		Connecticut	BE	0.2691	0.6061	42.4
52	X	Holy Cross	Pat	0.2593	0.6023	52.2
53		Duquesne	A10	0.1503	0.5597	59.8
54		North Carolina St.	ACC	-0.2613	0.3969	52.7
55		Missouri St.	MVC	-0.2692	0.3939	60.9
56		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-0.4882	0.3127	60.1
57		Western Kentucky	SB	-0.6613	0.2542	69.7
58		Boston College	ACC	-0.7654	0.2220	51.1
59	X	Nevada	WAC	-1.3838	0.0832	71.7
60		Northern Iowa	MVC	-1.4666	0.0712	70.6
61		Maryland	ACC	-1.7494	0.0401	55.8
62		St. Mary's	WCC	-1.8204	0.0344	77.6
63		Saint Joseph's	A10	-1.8281	0.0338	65.8
64		San Diego St.	MWC	-1.8834	0.0298	64.3
65		Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	-1.9117	0.0280	66.3
66		Drexel	CAA	-1.9809	0.0238	74.4
67	X	South Alabama	SB	-2.0631	0.0195	76.8
68		Massachusetts	A10	-2.3122	0.0104	66.7
69		Houston	CUSA	-2.3566	0.0092	76.1
70		Texas Tech	B12	-2.3863	0.0085	63.7
71		Kansas St.	B12	-2.4267	0.0076	66.4
72		Georgia Tech	ACC	-2.4614	0.0069	72.6
73		Mississippi St.	SEC	-2.4948	0.0063	63.7
74	X	Winthrop	BSth	-2.7548	0.0029	89.3
75		Old Dominion	CAA	-2.7606	0.0029	83.6
76		UAB	CUSA	-2.9088	0.0018	78.8
77		Bucknell	Pat	-2.9473	0.0016	84.4
78	X	Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-3.0793	0.0010	91.6
79		St. Louis	A10	-3.1297	0.0009	75.8
80	X	UC Santa Barbara	BW	-3.2045	0.0007	94.1
81		California	P10	-3.2682	0.0005	72.5
82		Purdue	B10	-3.3700	0.0004	83.8
83		St. John's	BE	-3.3830	0.0004	73.0
84		Arizona St.	P10	-3.5770	0.0002	77.8
85		Kent St.	MAC	-3.7595	0.0001	95.8
86		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-3.8320	0.0001	99.3
87		New Orleans	SB	-4.1669	0.0000	108.5
88	X	Siena	MAAC	-4.2626	0.0000	107.9
89		South Carolina	SEC	-4.2787	0.0000	78.7
90	X	Belmont	ASun	-4.2887	0.0000	114.8
91		Wright St.	Horz	-4.4317	0.0000	102.6
92		Seton Hall	BE	-4.4927	0.0000	79.4
93		Virginia Tech	ACC	-4.5023	0.0000	84.8
94		Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-4.5949	0.0000	104.2
95		Ohio	MAC	-4.7195	0.0000	100.4
96		Temple	A10	-4.7580	0.0000	96.6
97		Minnesota	B10	-4.7677	0.0000	92.3
98		Dayton	A10	-4.9433	0.0000	87.9
99	X	Montana	BSky	-4.9529	0.0000	113.4
100		Texas Christian	MWC	-4.9845	0.0000	96.7
101		Drake	MVC	-5.0696	0.0000	103.1
102		Georgia	SEC	-5.2252	0.0000	91.2
103		Wake Forest	ACC	-5.3965	0.0000	97.9
104		Alabama	SEC	-5.4172	0.0000	91.9
105		Northeastern	CAA	-5.4432	0.0000	105.5
106		Valparaiso	Horz	-5.4748	0.0000	109.5
107		Western Michigan	MAC	-5.6045	0.0000	121.9
108	X	Albany	AE	-5.6242	0.0000	122.8
109		Washington	P10	-5.6475	0.0000	99.1
110		Georgia Southern	SC	-5.8036	0.0000	118.0
111		Marshall	CUSA	-6.0110	0.0000	112.8
112		Oklahoma St.	B12	-6.0523	0.0000	97.9
113		Santa Clara	WCC	-6.0991	0.0000	117.8
114		Oral Roberts	Sum	-6.0992	0.0000	130.4
115	X	North Dakota St.	Sum	-6.1041	0.0000	134.1
116		Pacific	BW	-6.1849	0.0000	123.5
117		Air Force	MWC	-6.2890	0.0000	110.7
118		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-6.4654	0.0000	132.0
119		Bradley	MVC	-6.5030	0.0000	109.3
120		Michigan	B10	-6.5125	0.0000	103.3
121		Louisiana St.	SEC	-6.6566	0.0000	105.7
122		New Mexico St.	WAC	-6.7522	0.0000	123.3
123		Charlotte	A10	-6.9275	0.0000	116.9
124		Wichita St.	MVC	-6.9453	0.0000	110.3
125		Central Florida	CUSA	-7.0335	0.0000	127.5
126		North Texas	SB	-7.0412	0.0000	137.1
127		Utah	MWC	-7.0686	0.0000	114.6
128		Nebraska	B12	-7.0895	0.0000	119.7
129		Niagara	MAAC	-7.4463	0.0000	140.7
130		George Washington	A10	-7.6620	0.0000	130.4
131		Illinois St.	MVC	-7.8377	0.0000	124.4
132		Hampton	MEAC	-7.9041	0.0000	145.3
133		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-8.0743	0.0000	129.0
134		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-8.1378	0.0000	150.4
135		Cleveland St.	Horz	-8.1813	0.0000	138.7
136	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-8.2711	0.0000	155.1
137		Colorado St.	MWC	-8.3685	0.0000	121.7
138		Hawaii	WAC	-8.4172	0.0000	148.7
139		Tulane	CUSA	-8.4538	0.0000	142.2
140		Hofstra	CAA	-8.6041	0.0000	141.9
141	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-8.8988	0.0000	166.6
142		Manhattan	MAAC	-9.0421	0.0000	167.0
143		Monmouth	NEC	-9.0535	0.0000	166.0
144		Akron	MAC	-9.0538	0.0000	153.7
145		Oakland	Sum	-9.2534	0.0000	161.1
146		Appalachian St.	SC	-9.2602	0.0000	159.2
147		MD Baltimore County	AE	-9.2953	0.0000	162.1
148		NC Asheville	BSth	-9.3490	0.0000	162.1
149		Auburn	SEC	-9.3519	0.0000	132.9
150		Marist	MAAC	-9.3756	0.0000	154.2
151		Northern Arizona	BSky	-9.3820	0.0000	164.9
152		Portland St.	BSky	-9.3926	0.0000	166.5
153		Boise St.	WAC	-9.4033	0.0000	159.4
154	X	Brown	Ivy	-9.4069	0.0000	154.1
155		Vermont	AE	-9.5922	0.0000	167.8
156		Cal Poly	BW	-9.6013	0.0000	157.9
157		Yale	Ivy	-9.6386	0.0000	161.3
158		Detroit	Horz	-9.7818	0.0000	159.6
159		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-9.8447	0.0000	166.4
160		Murray St.	OVC	-9.8516	0.0000	175.4
161		San Francisco	WCC	-10.1846	0.0000	157.7
162		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-10.2533	0.0000	154.7
163		IUPUI	Sum	-10.2897	0.0000	176.7
164		Colorado	B12	-10.3510	0.0000	144.8
165	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-10.4368	0.0000	178.1
166		Utah Valley St.	ind	-10.5457	0.0000	187.1
167		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-10.7255	0.0000	174.8
168		NC Wilmington	CAA	-10.7855	0.0000	164.6
169		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-10.7989	0.0000	173.3
170		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-10.8277	0.0000	175.1
171		South Florida	BE	-10.8952	0.0000	150.2
172		Toledo	MAC	-11.0703	0.0000	169.9
173		Gardner Webb	ASun	-11.1109	0.0000	181.9
174		DePaul	BE	-11.1672	0.0000	141.0
175		College of Charleston	SC	-11.1679	0.0000	176.1
176		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-11.1732	0.0000	172.7
177		San Diego	WCC	-11.2559	0.0000	157.4
178		Towson	CAA	-11.3462	0.0000	175.4
179		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-11.3872	0.0000	179.7
180		Cornell	Ivy	-11.6861	0.0000	188.0
181		New Hampshire	AE	-11.6894	0.0000	186.9
182		Wagner	NEC	-11.7548	0.0000	202.1
183		Fresno St.	WAC	-11.7966	0.0000	178.8
184		Rider	MAAC	-11.8525	0.0000	188.9
185		American	Pat	-11.8973	0.0000	185.4
186		Loyola MD	MAAC	-12.0490	0.0000	188.2
187		Rutgers	BE	-12.1042	0.0000	157.0
188		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-12.1976	0.0000	194.9
189		Bowling Green	MAC	-12.3675	0.0000	187.5
190		Chattanooga	SC	-12.3894	0.0000	185.5
191		Iowa St.	B12	-12.4124	0.0000	164.5
192		Hartford	AE	-12.8994	0.0000	201.1
193		Fordham	A10	-12.9013	0.0000	175.2
194		UC Irvine	BW	-12.9232	0.0000	196.8
195		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-12.9823	0.0000	211.5
196		Youngstown St.	Horz	-13.0439	0.0000	190.7
197		St. Francis NY	NEC	-13.1489	0.0000	215.9
198		Tulsa	CUSA	-13.1603	0.0000	193.2
199		Utah St.	WAC	-13.1632	0.0000	202.6
200		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-13.2413	0.0000	204.1
201		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-13.2676	0.0000	190.6
202		James Madison	CAA	-13.2735	0.0000	192.5
203		McNeese St.	Slnd	-13.3570	0.0000	214.6
204		Wyoming	MWC	-13.3814	0.0000	184.9
205		Princeton	Ivy	-13.4383	0.0000	211.4
206		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-13.6658	0.0000	208.8
207		Cincinnati	BE	-13.8450	0.0000	166.2
208		Lehigh	Pat	-14.0010	0.0000	210.0
209		Oregon St.	P10	-14.0230	0.0000	180.2
210		Jacksonville	ASun	-14.1753	0.0000	220.1
211		Iowa	B10	-14.2737	0.0000	187.1
212		St. Peter's	MAAC	-14.3330	0.0000	217.5
213		Harvard	Ivy	-14.3517	0.0000	211.8
214		Arkansas St.	SB	-14.5096	0.0000	221.1
215		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-14.5320	0.0000	221.8
216		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-14.5766	0.0000	219.3
217		Dartmouth	Ivy	-14.6265	0.0000	229.1
218		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-14.6965	0.0000	213.6
219		Colgate	Pat	-14.7911	0.0000	217.0
220		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-14.8505	0.0000	226.8
221		Richmond	A10	-14.8806	0.0000	212.7
222		Elon	SC	-14.8984	0.0000	222.7
223		Indiana St.	MVC	-14.9721	0.0000	191.2
224		Penn St.	B10	-15.1943	0.0000	192.6
225		Lafayette	Pat	-15.2520	0.0000	224.2
226		Boston University	AE	-15.2608	0.0000	225.7
227		Pepperdine	WCC	-15.3209	0.0000	218.6
228		San Jose St.	WAC	-15.3568	0.0000	228.8
229		Weber St.	BSky	-15.4306	0.0000	234.4
230		Montana St.	BSky	-15.4456	0.0000	232.0
231		Samford	OVC	-15.4832	0.0000	243.2
232		Central Connecticut	NEC	-15.5031	0.0000	244.4
233		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-16.0017	0.0000	235.7
234		Central Michigan	MAC	-16.0848	0.0000	237.2
235		Long Island	NEC	-16.1005	0.0000	242.4
236		William & Mary	CAA	-16.1079	0.0000	220.6
237		High Point	BSth	-16.2317	0.0000	247.8
238	X	Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-16.3775	0.0000	255.4
239		NC Greensboro	SC	-16.4521	0.0000	240.0
240		Columbia	Ivy	-16.4729	0.0000	245.6
241		Middle Tennessee	SB	-16.5827	0.0000	233.6
242		Portland	WCC	-16.6250	0.0000	236.9
243		UC Davis	BW	-16.6311	0.0000	246.5
244		Fairfield	MAAC	-16.6649	0.0000	240.1
245		Texas Southern	SWAC	-16.7253	0.0000	248.5
246		Evansville	MVC	-16.8597	0.0000	217.5
247		Troy	SB	-17.1563	0.0000	240.7
248		Lamar	Slnd	-17.2040	0.0000	252.3
249		Wofford	SC	-17.2055	0.0000	243.0
250		Alabama St.	SWAC	-17.3556	0.0000	271.0
251		Mercer	ASun	-17.3700	0.0000	271.0
252		Lipscomb	ASun	-17.3851	0.0000	261.6
253		Northwestern	B10	-17.3972	0.0000	218.3
254		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-17.5035	0.0000	248.9
255		Buffalo	MAC	-17.6196	0.0000	242.9
256		Centenary	Sum	-17.6739	0.0000	257.6
257		Southern	SWAC	-17.7072	0.0000	269.2
258		Liberty	BSth	-17.7458	0.0000	257.0
259		Western Carolina	SC	-18.0069	0.0000	254.1
260		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-18.0857	0.0000	270.0
261		Tennessee St.	OVC	-18.0999	0.0000	264.0
262		Eastern Washington	BSky	-18.1427	0.0000	258.8
263		Delaware St.	MEAC	-18.3590	0.0000	268.5
264		Furman	SC	-18.3669	0.0000	261.1
265		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-18.5280	0.0000	275.8
266		Delaware	CAA	-18.5375	0.0000	250.5
267		Southern Utah	Sum	-18.5497	0.0000	269.6
268		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-18.5621	0.0000	267.3
269		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-18.5814	0.0000	271.6
270		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-18.5848	0.0000	274.2
271		Navy	Pat	-18.5898	0.0000	261.9
272		Northern Colorado	BSky	-18.6314	0.0000	276.8
273		Long Beach St.	BW	-18.7063	0.0000	266.9
274		Ball St.	MAC	-18.8564	0.0000	263.3
275		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-18.9927	0.0000	263.3
276		Maine	AE	-19.0146	0.0000	271.7
277		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-19.0372	0.0000	285.4
278		Quinnipiac	NEC	-19.1831	0.0000	284.5
279		Iona	MAAC	-19.2409	0.0000	275.4
280		Florida International	SB	-19.3398	0.0000	258.9
281		Chicago St.	ind	-19.3668	0.0000	282.5
282		Texas St.	Slnd	-19.3942	0.0000	279.7
283		Coppin St.	MEAC	-19.4010	0.0000	272.9
284		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-19.4142	0.0000	289.8
285		East Carolina	CUSA	-19.4975	0.0000	263.9
286		Jackson St.	SWAC	-19.5279	0.0000	288.0
287		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-19.5724	0.0000	280.4
288		Rice	CUSA	-19.7363	0.0000	261.5
289		Campbell	ASun	-19.7498	0.0000	292.1
290		South Dakota St.	Sum	-19.8961	0.0000	291.3
291		La Salle	A10	-20.0322	0.0000	256.9
292		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-20.0927	0.0000	283.9
293		Florida Atlantic	SB	-20.1212	0.0000	273.3
294		Idaho St.	BSky	-20.3406	0.0000	293.2
295		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-20.3697	0.0000	297.6
296		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-20.6427	0.0000	277.8
297		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-20.6878	0.0000	298.5
298		Morehead St.	OVC	-20.8662	0.0000	296.9
299		Northern Illinois	MAC	-20.9874	0.0000	284.8
300		Stetson	ASun	-21.1164	0.0000	298.4
301		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-21.1565	0.0000	300.6
302		Binghamton	AE	-21.1964	0.0000	308.6
303		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-21.1973	0.0000	302.1
304		UC Riverside	BW	-21.2868	0.0000	288.9
305		Western Illinois	Sum	-21.3051	0.0000	298.0
306		St. Bonaventure	A10	-21.3721	0.0000	271.8
307		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-21.3724	0.0000	291.8
308		Stony Brook	AE	-21.4105	0.0000	304.3
309		Howard	MEAC	-21.4677	0.0000	304.6
310		Denver	SB	-21.6467	0.0000	297.8
311		Georgia St.	CAA	-21.6915	0.0000	279.6
312		Grambling	SWAC	-21.7118	0.0000	312.4
313		Idaho	WAC	-21.7500	0.0000	297.3
314		Sacred Heart	NEC	-21.7691	0.0000	301.2
315		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-21.8927	0.0000	315.5
316		St. Francis PA	NEC	-22.1540	0.0000	311.2
317		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-22.1982	0.0000	320.3
318		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-22.2854	0.0000	323.9
319		Charleston Southern	BSth	-22.4313	0.0000	314.9
320		North Carolina Central	ind	-22.5357	0.0000	310.1
321		Longwood	ind	-22.6191	0.0000	327.0
322		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-22.6842	0.0000	332.4
323		Sacramento St.	BSky	-22.6960	0.0000	310.6
324		Savannah St.	ind	-22.7063	0.0000	319.7
325		Radford	BSth	-22.7736	0.0000	316.0
326		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-22.7742	0.0000	329.3
327		Canisius	MAAC	-22.9262	0.0000	321.3
328		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-22.9497	0.0000	327.3
329		Army	Pat	-22.9855	0.0000	313.9
330		Florida A&M	MEAC	-22.9870	0.0000	315.1
331		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-23.2075	0.0000	305.1
332		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-23.2198	0.0000	329.7
333		Texas Pan American	ind	-23.4049	0.0000	339.4
334		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.6098	0.0000	332.1
335		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-23.6278	0.0000	340.0
336		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-23.6301	0.0000	331.0
337		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-24.1326	0.0000	332.2
338		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-24.4735	0.0000	331.3
339		Presbyterian	ind	-24.6612	0.0000	332.1
340		The Citadel	SC	-24.7193	0.0000	321.9
341		North Florida	ASun	-25.3204	0.0000	338.9

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com