Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive

Through games of Jan 27, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	UCLA	P10	9.0981	1.0000	1.6
2	X	Florida	SEC	8.5311	1.0000	7.4
3	X	North Carolina	ACC	8.3799	1.0000	1.7
4		Wisconsin	B10	7.4244	1.0000	5.9
5		Pittsburgh	BE	7.0574	1.0000	5.5
6		Duke	ACC	6.2350	1.0000	3.8
7	X	Ohio St.	B10	6.1051	1.0000	9.8
8		Arizona	P10	6.0911	1.0000	7.6
9	X	Texas A&M	B12	5.6250	1.0000	13.6
10		Kentucky	SEC	5.5798	1.0000	9.4
11		Clemson	ACC	5.4057	1.0000	16.6
12	X	Memphis	CUSA	5.3758	1.0000	12.9
13		Air Force	MWC	5.1841	1.0000	19.8
14		Kansas	B12	4.9092	1.0000	20.2
15		Oregon	P10	4.8434	1.0000	16.6
16	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	4.6748	1.0000	18.7
17	X	Butler	Horz	4.6713	1.0000	27.6
18		Oklahoma St.	B12	4.1203	1.0000	20.8
19		Marquette	BE	4.0272	1.0000	15.3
20		Indiana	B10	3.8828	0.9999	23.5
21		Georgia Tech	ACC	3.8262	0.9999	25.0
22	X	Villanova	BE	3.7550	0.9999	13.8
23		Michigan St.	B10	3.7269	0.9999	17.9
24		Georgetown	BE	3.5744	0.9998	27.7
25	X	Nevada	WAC	3.4152	0.9997	32.9
26		Georgia	SEC	3.1283	0.9991	32.0
27		Washington St.	P10	3.0507	0.9989	38.3
28		Southern Illinois	MVC	2.9724	0.9985	27.8
29		Notre Dame	BE	2.9053	0.9982	39.3
30		Tennessee	SEC	2.8217	0.9976	20.9
31		Maryland	ACC	2.8175	0.9976	17.9
32		Virginia Tech	ACC	2.7629	0.9971	29.7
33	X	Xavier	A10	2.5102	0.9940	39.3
34		Creighton	MVC	2.4692	0.9932	40.9
35		Texas	B12	2.3147	0.9897	42.2
36	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	2.2474	0.9877	44.9
37		Boston College	ACC	1.9393	0.9738	34.6
38		Arkansas	SEC	1.7891	0.9632	30.2
39		Purdue	B10	1.6526	0.9508	43.4
40		Brigham Young	MWC	1.3753	0.9155	42.9
41		Texas Tech	B12	1.3074	0.9045	34.2
42		Stanford	P10	1.2815	0.9000	43.7
43		Florida St.	ACC	0.9888	0.8386	36.0
44		West Virginia	BE	0.9589	0.8312	42.6
45		Alabama	SEC	0.8546	0.8036	36.3
46	X	Missouri St.	MVC	0.6794	0.7516	39.6
47		Vanderbilt	SEC	0.5607	0.7125	49.8
48		Louisville	BE	0.5521	0.7096	50.0
49		Southern California	P10	0.4955	0.6899	47.8
50		Illinois	B10	0.1944	0.5771	39.6
51		Syracuse	BE	0.1315	0.5523	42.6
52		Providence	BE	0.1128	0.5449	48.7
53		Appalachian St.	SC	-0.1458	0.4420	76.9
54	X	Gonzaga	WCC	-0.1904	0.4245	57.6
55		Michigan	B10	-0.2364	0.4065	50.3
56		Drexel	CAA	-0.4803	0.3155	60.9
57	X	Winthrop	BSth	-1.1512	0.1248	83.3
58		Northern Iowa	MVC	-1.2600	0.1038	69.5
59		Kansas St.	B12	-1.3297	0.0918	61.5
60		Bradley	MVC	-1.4019	0.0805	52.9
61		Missouri	B12	-1.4721	0.0705	57.2
62		Old Dominion	CAA	-1.5305	0.0630	66.6
63		Mississippi St.	SEC	-1.5914	0.0558	60.6
64		Wichita St.	MVC	-1.6087	0.0538	67.1
65	X	Davidson	SC	-1.6856	0.0459	76.9
66		Virginia	ACC	-1.7497	0.0401	63.4
67		Connecticut	BE	-1.7512	0.0400	56.3
68	X	Western Kentucky	SB	-1.8090	0.0352	79.0
69		Massachusetts	A10	-1.9420	0.0261	78.6
70		Oklahoma	B12	-2.0946	0.0181	61.2
71		New Mexico St.	WAC	-2.1543	0.0156	84.1
72	X	Akron	MAC	-2.1642	0.0152	85.6
73		Louisiana St.	SEC	-2.2148	0.0134	59.0
74		George Washington	A10	-2.2844	0.0112	77.3
75		Hofstra	CAA	-2.3878	0.0085	90.2
76		California	P10	-2.5176	0.0059	61.0
77	X	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-2.7772	0.0027	88.0
78		Washington	P10	-2.8379	0.0023	64.4
79	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-3.0122	0.0013	82.8
80		Colorado St.	MWC	-3.1053	0.0010	83.7
81	X	Pennsylvania	Ivy	-3.1635	0.0008	91.1
82		San Diego St.	MWC	-3.2461	0.0006	74.5
83		St. Louis	A10	-3.3105	0.0005	88.6
84		Dayton	A10	-3.3558	0.0004	81.4
85		DePaul	BE	-3.6574	0.0001	69.9
86		Ohio	MAC	-3.7301	0.0001	92.5
87		Nebraska	B12	-3.7902	0.0001	84.0
88		Utah St.	WAC	-3.7984	0.0001	81.7
89		Boise St.	WAC	-4.0386	0.0000	94.8
90		South Carolina	SEC	-4.0553	0.0000	74.8
91		Houston	CUSA	-4.2322	0.0000	87.6
92		Wyoming	MWC	-4.2409	0.0000	96.6
93		Saint Joseph's	A10	-4.2659	0.0000	89.4
94		Vermont	AE	-4.4764	0.0000	113.9
95		Fresno St.	WAC	-4.5309	0.0000	98.4
96		Kent St.	MAC	-4.5330	0.0000	104.6
97		Fordham	A10	-4.5429	0.0000	103.5
98	X	Oral Roberts	MCon	-4.5552	0.0000	108.2
99		George Mason	CAA	-4.6020	0.0000	98.9
100		Auburn	SEC	-4.7162	0.0000	86.5
101		Mississippi	SEC	-4.8485	0.0000	82.1
102		UAB	CUSA	-5.0745	0.0000	97.4
103		Tulsa	CUSA	-5.3009	0.0000	101.6
104		Santa Clara	WCC	-5.3328	0.0000	105.8
105		Toledo	MAC	-5.3789	0.0000	113.6
106		Iowa	B10	-5.3887	0.0000	92.4
107	X	Marist	MAAC	-5.4458	0.0000	123.8
108		Albany	AE	-5.5813	0.0000	119.0
109	X	Long Beach St.	BW	-5.7163	0.0000	118.6
110		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-5.7400	0.0000	128.7
111		Hawaii	WAC	-5.8518	0.0000	108.3
112		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-5.9953	0.0000	122.6
113		Bucknell	Pat	-6.2171	0.0000	128.5
114		Oakland	MCon	-6.2526	0.0000	124.5
115		Evansville	MVC	-6.2574	0.0000	93.5
116		Central Florida	CUSA	-6.5713	0.0000	129.4
117		Austin Peay	OVC	-6.6041	0.0000	139.8
118		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-6.6199	0.0000	120.5
119		College of Charleston	SC	-6.6655	0.0000	125.5
120		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-6.6866	0.0000	138.5
121		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-6.6964	0.0000	127.4
122		Indiana St.	MVC	-6.7637	0.0000	103.9
123		Belmont	ASun	-6.9485	0.0000	146.9
124		Samford	OVC	-6.9525	0.0000	145.9
125	X	East Tennessee St.	ASun	-7.0562	0.0000	146.8
126		Cincinnati	BE	-7.2233	0.0000	106.9
127		Utah	MWC	-7.2905	0.0000	126.5
128		Baylor	B12	-7.4213	0.0000	101.8
129		Seton Hall	BE	-7.7290	0.0000	105.2
130	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-7.7468	0.0000	148.9
131		New Mexico	MWC	-7.8059	0.0000	114.0
132		St. John's	BE	-7.8321	0.0000	114.6
133	X	Tennessee Tech	OVC	-7.9389	0.0000	150.0
134		Miami OH	MAC	-8.0368	0.0000	131.0
135		South Alabama	SB	-8.0506	0.0000	142.0
136		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-8.1650	0.0000	132.7
137		North Dakota St.	ind	-8.4603	0.0000	159.6
138		Rhode Island	A10	-8.5346	0.0000	132.9
139		Sacred Heart	NEC	-8.5822	0.0000	156.5
140		Wright St.	Horz	-8.6610	0.0000	148.3
141		Western Michigan	MAC	-8.7553	0.0000	152.4
142		Charlotte	A10	-8.7910	0.0000	131.6
143		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-8.9601	0.0000	157.0
144	X	Idaho St.	BSky	-9.0313	0.0000	148.0
145		Northwestern	B10	-9.0644	0.0000	121.7
146		Utah Valley St.	ind	-9.0814	0.0000	163.4
147		Siena	MAAC	-9.1999	0.0000	158.2
148		North Carolina St.	ACC	-9.2796	0.0000	115.8
149		Middle Tennessee	SB	-9.2829	0.0000	155.7
150		Loyola MD	MAAC	-9.3633	0.0000	175.8
151		Drake	MVC	-9.3730	0.0000	115.2
152	X	Delaware St.	MEAC	-9.4046	0.0000	167.4
153		North Texas	SB	-9.4453	0.0000	170.1
154		Temple	A10	-9.5040	0.0000	142.7
155		Penn St.	B10	-9.6830	0.0000	128.6
156		Wake Forest	ACC	-9.7864	0.0000	131.9
157		St. Mary's	WCC	-9.8278	0.0000	153.2
158		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-10.1560	0.0000	174.1
159		Rice	CUSA	-10.2284	0.0000	168.1
160		Illinois St.	MVC	-10.3128	0.0000	130.8
161		Iowa St.	B12	-10.3290	0.0000	138.9
162	X	Jackson St.	SWAC	-10.3317	0.0000	180.3
163		Marshall	CUSA	-10.3718	0.0000	158.3
164		High Point	BSth	-10.4108	0.0000	176.2
165		UC Irvine	BW	-10.4699	0.0000	171.5
166		Southern Utah	MCon	-10.4745	0.0000	172.3
167		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-10.6688	0.0000	157.5
168		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-10.7252	0.0000	181.8
169		Miami FL	ACC	-10.7472	0.0000	150.1
170		Princeton	Ivy	-10.8298	0.0000	176.6
171		Towson	CAA	-10.8863	0.0000	150.9
172		Yale	Ivy	-10.9455	0.0000	172.4
173		Weber St.	BSky	-10.9918	0.0000	179.8
174		NC Greensboro	SC	-11.0171	0.0000	191.3
175		Minnesota	B10	-11.1776	0.0000	144.3
176		San Diego	WCC	-11.4252	0.0000	182.5
177		Manhattan	MAAC	-11.5511	0.0000	200.1
178		Valparaiso	MCon	-11.7276	0.0000	188.0
179		Lipscomb	ASun	-11.7628	0.0000	187.8
180		Niagara	MAAC	-11.8044	0.0000	200.2
181		Arkansas St.	SB	-11.8339	0.0000	201.0
182		Canisius	MAAC	-11.9532	0.0000	193.3
183		Detroit	Horz	-12.0212	0.0000	181.2
184		South Florida	BE	-12.1680	0.0000	147.5
185		Central Connecticut	NEC	-12.2554	0.0000	206.3
186		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-12.3093	0.0000	184.9
187		Montana	BSky	-12.3743	0.0000	197.6
188		Rider	MAAC	-12.4013	0.0000	199.4
189		Army	Pat	-12.4027	0.0000	184.2
190		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-12.4146	0.0000	192.4
191		Youngstown St.	Horz	-12.4897	0.0000	188.9
192		Texas Christian	MWC	-12.4913	0.0000	158.7
193		Buffalo	MAC	-12.5451	0.0000	182.4
194		American	Pat	-12.5888	0.0000	195.6
195		Columbia	Ivy	-12.6285	0.0000	196.5
196		William & Mary	CAA	-12.7904	0.0000	174.6
197		Harvard	Ivy	-12.9952	0.0000	189.9
198		Portland St.	BSky	-13.2198	0.0000	206.8
199		Eastern Washington	BSky	-13.2777	0.0000	210.5
200	X	Boston University	AE	-13.2953	0.0000	201.3
201		Cornell	Ivy	-13.3249	0.0000	209.4
202		Maine	AE	-13.3337	0.0000	209.7
203		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-13.3406	0.0000	211.0
204		Pacific	BW	-13.5053	0.0000	202.6
205		Rutgers	BE	-13.6096	0.0000	165.2
206		Jacksonville	ASun	-13.6660	0.0000	214.6
207		New Orleans	SB	-13.8135	0.0000	213.2
208		San Francisco	WCC	-13.9410	0.0000	203.4
209		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-14.0305	0.0000	192.9
210		Lehigh	Pat	-14.2973	0.0000	219.8
211		Northern Arizona	BSky	-14.3840	0.0000	229.9
212		MD Baltimore County	AE	-14.3874	0.0000	218.9
213		Florida A&M	MEAC	-14.4364	0.0000	230.5
214		Furman	SC	-14.4395	0.0000	215.5
215		Lamar	Slnd	-14.5464	0.0000	226.2
216		Murray St.	OVC	-14.6137	0.0000	229.5
217		Northeastern	CAA	-14.6934	0.0000	193.2
218		Oregon St.	P10	-14.7637	0.0000	165.7
219		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-14.7789	0.0000	231.8
220		Duquesne	A10	-14.8229	0.0000	217.6
221		Florida Atlantic	SB	-14.9872	0.0000	223.7
222		Cal Poly	BW	-15.0133	0.0000	235.3
223		Monmouth	NEC	-15.0731	0.0000	225.6
224		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-15.2379	0.0000	211.2
225		IUPUI	MCon	-15.2611	0.0000	231.6
226		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-15.2881	0.0000	233.1
227		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-15.4345	0.0000	231.5
228		Brown	Ivy	-15.5467	0.0000	241.2
229		Chicago St.	MCon	-15.6455	0.0000	214.1
230		Tennessee St.	OVC	-15.6524	0.0000	233.1
231		Navy	Pat	-15.7256	0.0000	226.1
232		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-15.8382	0.0000	246.9
233		Tulane	CUSA	-15.8708	0.0000	225.2
234		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-15.8965	0.0000	247.2
235		Hampton	MEAC	-15.9537	0.0000	237.3
236		Mercer	ASun	-16.0023	0.0000	252.8
237		Hartford	AE	-16.2236	0.0000	238.0
238		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-16.2340	0.0000	240.2
239		Bowling Green	MAC	-16.3170	0.0000	229.4
240		Arizona St.	P10	-16.3389	0.0000	189.2
241		Quinnipiac	NEC	-16.3477	0.0000	255.1
242		Ball St.	MAC	-16.4273	0.0000	232.1
243		Chattanooga	SC	-16.5093	0.0000	230.6
244		Texas Southern	SWAC	-16.6277	0.0000	250.3
245		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-16.6610	0.0000	219.8
246		Troy	SB	-16.6811	0.0000	243.2
247		New Hampshire	AE	-16.7960	0.0000	253.7
248		Campbell	ASun	-16.9090	0.0000	251.4
249		Pepperdine	WCC	-16.9968	0.0000	240.6
250		Georgia Southern	SC	-17.0314	0.0000	244.7
251		Morehead St.	OVC	-17.1237	0.0000	264.1
252		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-17.1489	0.0000	258.2
253		Fairfield	MAAC	-17.2090	0.0000	236.6
254		Central Michigan	MAC	-17.2202	0.0000	247.7
255		La Salle	A10	-17.4007	0.0000	232.9
256		Dartmouth	Ivy	-17.6871	0.0000	250.8
257		Binghamton	AE	-17.8880	0.0000	262.0
258		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-17.9775	0.0000	273.4
259		Cleveland St.	Horz	-18.3877	0.0000	258.0
260		Georgia St.	CAA	-18.4045	0.0000	233.6
261		Colorado	B12	-18.4189	0.0000	218.1
262		Stony Brook	AE	-18.4237	0.0000	263.5
263		Florida International	SB	-18.4360	0.0000	264.9
264		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-18.6786	0.0000	259.1
265		Grambling	SWAC	-18.7562	0.0000	284.1
266		Western Carolina	SC	-18.8906	0.0000	256.4
267		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-18.9609	0.0000	282.4
268		McNeese St.	Slnd	-19.0637	0.0000	275.3
269		Gardner Webb	ASun	-19.2058	0.0000	271.9
270		Missouri Kansas City	MCon	-19.2720	0.0000	275.4
271		San Jose St.	WAC	-19.2983	0.0000	242.5
272		Colgate	Pat	-19.3873	0.0000	271.2
273		Stetson	ASun	-19.4095	0.0000	277.8
274		Lafayette	Pat	-19.4814	0.0000	268.2
275		Texas Pan American	ind	-19.5350	0.0000	287.8
276		St. Bonaventure	A10	-19.6356	0.0000	269.1
277		IUPU Fort Wayne	ind	-19.6409	0.0000	289.2
278		Montana St.	BSky	-19.6477	0.0000	288.8
279		Liberty	BSth	-19.8941	0.0000	283.2
280		NC Wilmington	CAA	-19.9712	0.0000	250.8
281		UC Davis	ind	-20.0882	0.0000	295.9
282		Savannah St.	ind	-20.1008	0.0000	285.9
283		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-20.2018	0.0000	284.3
284		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-20.2247	0.0000	282.3
285		Coppin St.	MEAC	-20.2466	0.0000	274.2
286		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-20.2567	0.0000	291.2
287		Morgan St.	MEAC	-20.3656	0.0000	305.8
288		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-20.4547	0.0000	297.2
289		NC Asheville	BSth	-20.5531	0.0000	289.4
290		Portland	WCC	-20.5731	0.0000	275.1
291		Wagner	NEC	-20.7012	0.0000	299.2
292		James Madison	CAA	-20.9315	0.0000	281.1
293		Howard	MEAC	-20.9874	0.0000	308.8
294		Southern	SWAC	-21.1234	0.0000	302.1
295		Centenary	MCon	-21.1525	0.0000	289.2
296		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-21.1536	0.0000	307.6
297		St. Francis NY	NEC	-21.2354	0.0000	295.0
298		Elon	SC	-21.2650	0.0000	283.3
299		Radford	BSth	-21.3122	0.0000	297.0
300		Sacramento St.	BSky	-21.4151	0.0000	301.1
301		Long Island	NEC	-21.4316	0.0000	312.1
302		Richmond	A10	-21.4517	0.0000	270.6
303		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-21.4607	0.0000	299.1
304		Northern Illinois	MAC	-21.5797	0.0000	295.1
305		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-21.6869	0.0000	305.9
306		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-21.6890	0.0000	321.3
307		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-21.6893	0.0000	310.6
308		Delaware	CAA	-21.8041	0.0000	282.6
309		South Dakota St.	ind	-21.8236	0.0000	311.9
310		Wofford	SC	-21.8483	0.0000	297.0
311		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-21.9748	0.0000	312.4
312		The Citadel	SC	-21.9989	0.0000	284.5
313		Idaho	WAC	-21.9993	0.0000	272.4
314		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-22.2911	0.0000	304.6
315		Texas St.	Slnd	-22.3827	0.0000	311.8
316		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-22.6072	0.0000	311.6
317		Winston Salem St.	ind	-22.6361	0.0000	313.4
318		Alabama St.	SWAC	-22.6686	0.0000	315.8
319		Longwood	ind	-22.6706	0.0000	308.1
320		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-22.7654	0.0000	318.7
321		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-22.7776	0.0000	329.3
322		UC Riverside	BW	-22.9311	0.0000	319.3
323		St. Peter's	MAAC	-23.0278	0.0000	320.0
324		East Carolina	CUSA	-23.0460	0.0000	312.8
325		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-23.3220	0.0000	330.6
326		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-23.3239	0.0000	326.1
327		St. Francis PA	NEC	-23.5735	0.0000	325.1
328		Iona	MAAC	-23.5855	0.0000	321.2
329		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-23.6390	0.0000	330.0
330		Western Illinois	MCon	-24.0707	0.0000	331.1
331		Charleston Southern	BSth	-24.0750	0.0000	328.7
332		Denver	SB	-24.1210	0.0000	328.5
333		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-24.2449	0.0000	314.6
334		Northern Colorado	BSky	-24.5703	0.0000	335.1
335		North Florida	ASun	-24.5950	0.0000	334.1
336		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-25.7992	0.0000	333.9

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, and to Jay Colemen for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com