Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive

Through games of Feb 27, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	UCLA	P10	9.0176	1.0000	1.0
2	X	Ohio St.	B10	8.4230	1.0000	3.1
3	X	North Carolina	ACC	8.1124	1.0000	2.2
4	X	Florida	SEC	7.2967	1.0000	10.7
5		Pittsburgh	BE	7.1898	1.0000	4.1
6		Wisconsin	B10	6.9753	1.0000	6.5
7	X	Kansas	B12	6.9579	1.0000	12.4
8		Southern Illinois	MVC	6.6671	1.0000	9.1
9		Texas A&M	B12	6.4192	1.0000	10.3
10	X	Nevada	WAC	6.1175	1.0000	18.7
11		Duke	ACC	5.9873	1.0000	4.7
12	X	Memphis	CUSA	5.4788	1.0000	11.6
13		Kentucky	SEC	5.3490	1.0000	8.4
14	X	Georgetown	BE	5.0709	1.0000	15.5
15		Tennessee	SEC	4.8666	1.0000	13.0
16		Maryland	ACC	4.6093	1.0000	12.4
17		Virginia Tech	ACC	4.3091	1.0000	21.6
18	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	4.2117	1.0000	17.5
19		Washington St.	P10	4.1718	1.0000	27.7
20		Arizona	P10	4.0211	1.0000	11.6
21	X	Butler	Horz	3.9674	1.0000	33.7
22		Brigham Young	MWC	3.7657	0.9999	25.8
23		Boston College	ACC	3.7375	0.9999	22.2
24		Louisville	BE	3.4671	0.9997	26.4
25		Vanderbilt	SEC	3.3515	0.9996	30.3
26		Virginia	ACC	3.2432	0.9994	36.4
27		Texas	B12	3.1526	0.9992	39.0
28		Michigan St.	B10	2.9919	0.9986	20.1
29		Creighton	MVC	2.8285	0.9977	36.7
30		Marquette	BE	2.7315	0.9968	19.8
31		Air Force	MWC	2.7103	0.9966	30.4
32		Southern California	P10	2.6031	0.9954	40.5
33		Villanova	BE	2.4547	0.9929	20.4
34		Oregon	P10	2.3842	0.9914	27.4
35	X	Xavier	A10	2.3295	0.9901	40.4
36		Notre Dame	BE	2.0993	0.9821	49.7
37		Old Dominion	CAA	2.0635	0.9805	39.4
38		Clemson	ACC	1.9722	0.9757	41.3
39		Illinois	B10	1.8916	0.9707	26.4
40		Syracuse	BE	1.8070	0.9646	30.2
41	X	Missouri St.	MVC	1.6847	0.9540	32.0
42		Indiana	B10	1.5676	0.9415	34.1
43		Georgia Tech	ACC	1.4957	0.9326	44.5
44		Appalachian St.	SC	0.8930	0.8141	67.5
45		Oklahoma St.	B12	0.6192	0.7321	43.6
46		Stanford	P10	0.5500	0.7088	46.4
47		Drexel	CAA	0.5409	0.7057	52.3
48		Purdue	B10	0.5368	0.7043	46.1
49		Georgia	SEC	0.3865	0.6504	48.0
50	X	Winthrop	BSth	0.3113	0.6222	75.8
51		Massachusetts	A10	0.1611	0.5640	63.9
52		Alabama	SEC	0.0525	0.5209	45.7
53		Michigan	B10	0.0138	0.5055	43.7
54	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-0.0883	0.4648	55.5
55		San Diego St.	MWC	-0.3475	0.3641	56.7
56	X	Davidson	SC	-0.5586	0.2882	64.1
57	X	Gonzaga	WCC	-0.6206	0.2674	62.7
58		Texas Tech	B12	-0.8413	0.2001	44.9
59		West Virginia	BE	-1.0259	0.1525	61.1
60		Providence	BE	-1.0311	0.1512	55.6
61		Hofstra	CAA	-1.2402	0.1074	77.6
62		Bradley	MVC	-1.3553	0.0877	44.7
63		Mississippi St.	SEC	-1.3811	0.0836	58.7
64		Florida St.	ACC	-1.4843	0.0689	48.6
65		Mississippi	SEC	-1.5133	0.0651	62.1
66		Kansas St.	B12	-1.5387	0.0619	65.7
67		DePaul	BE	-1.5704	0.0582	58.8
68	X	Akron	MAC	-1.5804	0.0570	79.8
69	X	Vermont	AE	-1.6662	0.0478	85.7
70		St. Louis	A10	-1.6768	0.0468	80.1
71		Iowa	B10	-1.6768	0.0468	71.8
72		New Mexico St.	WAC	-1.8408	0.0328	80.3
73		Nebraska	B12	-1.8771	0.0303	72.3
74		Missouri	B12	-2.1327	0.0165	62.7
75		Arkansas	SEC	-2.2319	0.0128	53.8
76	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-2.4397	0.0073	78.0
77		Fresno St.	WAC	-2.5807	0.0049	81.0
78	X	Pennsylvania	Ivy	-2.6339	0.0042	90.2
79		Northern Iowa	MVC	-2.6607	0.0039	80.6
80		Utah St.	WAC	-2.9312	0.0017	74.7
81	X	Western Kentucky	SB	-3.2567	0.0006	94.7
82		Bucknell	Pat	-3.2602	0.0006	97.8
83		Santa Clara	WCC	-3.2941	0.0005	92.5
84		Hawaii	WAC	-3.3128	0.0005	90.2
85		Kent St.	MAC	-3.4730	0.0003	95.3
86		Wright St.	Horz	-3.5779	0.0002	100.4
87		California	P10	-3.5798	0.0002	67.9
88		Saint Joseph's	A10	-3.6403	0.0001	90.0
89		Auburn	SEC	-3.6520	0.0001	80.5
90		Washington	P10	-3.9835	0.0000	77.5
91		Dayton	A10	-4.1856	0.0000	86.0
92	X	Marist	MAAC	-4.2462	0.0000	112.9
93		Houston	CUSA	-4.2885	0.0000	92.5
94	X	Long Beach St.	BW	-4.3010	0.0000	100.0
95		Albany	AE	-4.3560	0.0000	107.8
96		Toledo	MAC	-4.5170	0.0000	101.7
97		Louisiana St.	SEC	-4.5289	0.0000	69.6
98		Connecticut	BE	-4.6499	0.0000	72.1
99	X	Oral Roberts	MCon	-4.7116	0.0000	111.0
100		Wichita St.	MVC	-4.7555	0.0000	88.7
101		South Carolina	SEC	-4.7699	0.0000	79.5
102	X	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-4.9598	0.0000	111.9
103		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-5.1111	0.0000	100.7
104		Boise St.	WAC	-5.1815	0.0000	111.3
105		Oklahoma	B12	-5.2223	0.0000	81.6
106		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-5.2591	0.0000	114.1
107		Fordham	A10	-5.3705	0.0000	111.0
108		George Washington	A10	-5.5785	0.0000	96.3
109		Central Florida	CUSA	-5.6553	0.0000	121.1
110		Rhode Island	A10	-5.6623	0.0000	113.1
111		Ohio	MAC	-5.6736	0.0000	108.6
112		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-5.7456	0.0000	132.9
113		Austin Peay	OVC	-5.8380	0.0000	134.3
114	X	Belmont	ASun	-5.9594	0.0000	137.4
115		Miami OH	MAC	-6.3044	0.0000	113.7
116		North Carolina St.	ACC	-6.3400	0.0000	92.5
117		Tulsa	CUSA	-6.3427	0.0000	113.3
118		Utah	MWC	-6.4155	0.0000	117.4
119		South Alabama	SB	-6.4880	0.0000	129.4
120		St. John's	BE	-6.7012	0.0000	104.9
121		Wyoming	MWC	-6.7271	0.0000	114.7
122		UAB	CUSA	-6.8242	0.0000	115.6
123		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-6.9413	0.0000	130.2
124		Colorado St.	MWC	-6.9623	0.0000	113.9
125		Wake Forest	ACC	-7.2050	0.0000	110.8
126		Oakland	MCon	-7.2096	0.0000	137.6
127		College of Charleston	SC	-7.2304	0.0000	129.1
128		Utah Valley St.	ind	-7.4349	0.0000	146.0
129		Niagara	MAAC	-7.4607	0.0000	152.5
130		Drake	MVC	-7.4834	0.0000	104.6
131		Central Connecticut	NEC	-7.7174	0.0000	155.4
132	X	Tennessee Tech	OVC	-7.7969	0.0000	149.1
133	X	Delaware St.	MEAC	-7.9348	0.0000	148.8
134		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-7.9469	0.0000	149.4
135		Siena	MAAC	-8.1832	0.0000	146.3
136		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-8.3308	0.0000	151.3
137		Seton Hall	BE	-8.4218	0.0000	122.4
138		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-8.4669	0.0000	160.6
139		Yale	Ivy	-8.7168	0.0000	152.3
140		Western Michigan	MAC	-8.7373	0.0000	147.5
141		North Texas	SB	-9.0172	0.0000	166.2
142		Rice	CUSA	-9.0346	0.0000	150.9
143		Iowa St.	B12	-9.0677	0.0000	123.3
144		New Mexico	MWC	-9.0708	0.0000	125.0
145		Miami FL	ACC	-9.0974	0.0000	141.0
146		Illinois St.	MVC	-9.1213	0.0000	123.8
147		Indiana St.	MVC	-9.1656	0.0000	130.8
148		Temple	A10	-9.2589	0.0000	141.6
149		Northern Arizona	BSky	-9.3440	0.0000	173.8
150		Cal Poly	BW	-9.3786	0.0000	164.1
151		St. Mary's	WCC	-9.4144	0.0000	145.5
152		Cornell	Ivy	-9.5187	0.0000	162.4
153		Charlotte	A10	-9.7400	0.0000	132.0
154		Cincinnati	BE	-9.7730	0.0000	134.5
155		Sacred Heart	NEC	-9.7974	0.0000	175.7
156		Valparaiso	MCon	-9.9919	0.0000	168.4
157		Baylor	B12	-10.0600	0.0000	123.0
158		George Mason	CAA	-10.1206	0.0000	140.2
159		Loyola MD	MAAC	-10.1217	0.0000	184.7
160		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-10.2040	0.0000	157.8
161		Evansville	MVC	-10.2263	0.0000	123.4
162		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-10.2586	0.0000	159.3
163		Samford	OVC	-10.2821	0.0000	179.6
164		Weber St.	BSky	-10.4711	0.0000	175.8
165		North Dakota St.	ind	-10.5077	0.0000	186.2
166		Northwestern	B10	-10.6081	0.0000	134.2
167		Youngstown St.	Horz	-10.6222	0.0000	162.3
168		High Point	BSth	-10.6775	0.0000	184.4
169		Florida Atlantic	SB	-10.7034	0.0000	174.2
170		Marshall	CUSA	-10.7353	0.0000	166.6
171		Murray St.	OVC	-10.7831	0.0000	187.8
172		Minnesota	B10	-11.1562	0.0000	142.8
173		San Francisco	WCC	-11.1995	0.0000	164.7
174		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-11.2140	0.0000	170.1
175		Towson	CAA	-11.2504	0.0000	153.8
176	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-11.3451	0.0000	188.5
177		Tulane	CUSA	-11.3832	0.0000	179.8
178		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-11.5114	0.0000	188.8
179		Jacksonville	ASun	-11.7876	0.0000	193.9
180		Rider	MAAC	-11.8170	0.0000	194.6
181		UC Irvine	BW	-11.8430	0.0000	183.9
182		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-11.9269	0.0000	179.1
183		NC Greensboro	SC	-11.9671	0.0000	199.1
184		Middle Tennessee	SB	-12.0014	0.0000	180.6
185		William & Mary	CAA	-12.1116	0.0000	168.8
186		Arkansas St.	SB	-12.1518	0.0000	201.0
187		Texas Christian	MWC	-12.2933	0.0000	166.3
188		Penn St.	B10	-12.3380	0.0000	149.0
189		South Florida	BE	-12.4805	0.0000	157.3
190		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-12.5712	0.0000	178.4
191		Fairfield	MAAC	-12.6155	0.0000	190.5
192		Northeastern	CAA	-12.6429	0.0000	174.9
193		Montana	BSky	-12.7536	0.0000	208.4
194		Lipscomb	ASun	-13.0342	0.0000	202.3
195		Portland St.	BSky	-13.0731	0.0000	204.1
196		Columbia	Ivy	-13.1412	0.0000	201.8
197		San Diego	WCC	-13.2055	0.0000	192.5
198	X	Idaho St.	BSky	-13.3422	0.0000	197.9
199		American	Pat	-13.3550	0.0000	195.1
200		Pacific	BW	-13.3679	0.0000	192.9
201		Manhattan	MAAC	-13.4406	0.0000	222.5
202		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-13.4435	0.0000	193.4
203		Duquesne	A10	-13.5115	0.0000	211.6
204		Eastern Washington	BSky	-13.5399	0.0000	207.0
205		Lamar	Slnd	-13.5927	0.0000	219.8
206		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-13.6386	0.0000	208.7
207		Southern Utah	MCon	-13.7610	0.0000	213.5
208		Furman	SC	-13.8870	0.0000	209.1
209		IUPUI	MCon	-14.0766	0.0000	214.7
210		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-14.1454	0.0000	228.3
211		Harvard	Ivy	-14.1659	0.0000	202.3
212		Rutgers	BE	-14.2451	0.0000	177.7
213		Jackson St.	SWAC	-14.3124	0.0000	223.2
214		Florida A&M	MEAC	-14.4775	0.0000	231.2
215		Troy	SB	-14.6008	0.0000	213.5
216		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-14.6037	0.0000	228.6
217		Oregon St.	P10	-14.6506	0.0000	157.7
218		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-14.7409	0.0000	221.3
219		Central Michigan	MAC	-14.8197	0.0000	222.0
220		Detroit	Horz	-14.8291	0.0000	199.9
221		Boston University	AE	-14.8898	0.0000	212.7
222		New Orleans	SB	-14.8936	0.0000	217.9
223		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-14.9094	0.0000	234.5
224		Hampton	MEAC	-15.2438	0.0000	231.6
225	X	Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-15.2481	0.0000	235.1
226		Chattanooga	SC	-15.4374	0.0000	219.0
227		Quinnipiac	NEC	-15.4764	0.0000	244.3
228		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-15.5099	0.0000	235.9
229		Brown	Ivy	-15.7735	0.0000	243.7
230		Lehigh	Pat	-15.9334	0.0000	227.1
231		Buffalo	MAC	-15.9511	0.0000	220.6
232		Hartford	AE	-16.2537	0.0000	240.6
233		MD Baltimore County	AE	-16.2807	0.0000	233.7
234		Navy	Pat	-16.3049	0.0000	227.2
235		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-16.5805	0.0000	219.1
236		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-16.6548	0.0000	233.1
237		Florida International	SB	-16.6613	0.0000	246.2
238		Princeton	Ivy	-16.7072	0.0000	239.0
239		Binghamton	AE	-16.8131	0.0000	244.6
240		Maine	AE	-16.9190	0.0000	256.6
241		Arizona St.	P10	-17.0001	0.0000	192.6
242		Missouri Kansas City	MCon	-17.1743	0.0000	254.2
243		Colorado	B12	-17.2495	0.0000	214.2
244		Canisius	MAAC	-17.5228	0.0000	255.7
245		Army	Pat	-17.5456	0.0000	232.9
246		Dartmouth	Ivy	-17.5567	0.0000	246.4
247		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-17.5648	0.0000	258.3
248		Bowling Green	MAC	-17.6845	0.0000	241.6
249		Georgia Southern	SC	-17.7591	0.0000	249.0
250		McNeese St.	Slnd	-17.8007	0.0000	263.6
251		IUPU Fort Wayne	ind	-17.8677	0.0000	261.6
252		San Jose St.	WAC	-17.9463	0.0000	226.1
253		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-18.1050	0.0000	269.5
254		Ball St.	MAC	-18.1062	0.0000	242.0
255		Monmouth	NEC	-18.2821	0.0000	256.0
256		Mercer	ASun	-18.4133	0.0000	274.8
257		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-18.4704	0.0000	265.8
258		Tennessee St.	OVC	-18.4828	0.0000	262.7
259		Colgate	Pat	-18.5837	0.0000	254.1
260		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-18.6600	0.0000	276.0
261		Montana St.	BSky	-18.7361	0.0000	280.8
262		Campbell	ASun	-18.7630	0.0000	273.1
263		Texas Southern	SWAC	-18.7714	0.0000	269.7
264		Coppin St.	MEAC	-18.8051	0.0000	260.7
265		New Hampshire	AE	-18.8137	0.0000	271.9
266		Chicago St.	MCon	-18.8159	0.0000	247.5
267		Gardner Webb	ASun	-18.8179	0.0000	263.5
268		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-18.9169	0.0000	271.8
269		Georgia St.	CAA	-18.9446	0.0000	228.0
270		La Salle	A10	-18.9977	0.0000	243.0
271		Liberty	BSth	-19.1317	0.0000	281.5
272		Pepperdine	WCC	-19.3178	0.0000	260.5
273		NC Asheville	BSth	-19.3318	0.0000	274.1
274		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-19.3428	0.0000	285.2
275		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-19.3828	0.0000	293.2
276		Savannah St.	ind	-19.4529	0.0000	280.1
277		Morgan St.	MEAC	-19.5184	0.0000	300.0
278		Morehead St.	OVC	-19.5449	0.0000	289.4
279		Richmond	A10	-19.7514	0.0000	259.0
280		Portland	WCC	-19.7797	0.0000	261.2
281		Stetson	ASun	-19.9696	0.0000	284.0
282		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-19.9724	0.0000	290.0
283		St. Bonaventure	A10	-20.0643	0.0000	271.5
284		Grambling	SWAC	-20.0711	0.0000	299.0
285		Cleveland St.	Horz	-20.0807	0.0000	268.5
286		Western Carolina	SC	-20.1632	0.0000	262.7
287		NC Wilmington	CAA	-20.1663	0.0000	250.5
288		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-20.1762	0.0000	285.2
289		Texas Pan American	ind	-20.2392	0.0000	294.4
290		Stony Brook	AE	-20.3222	0.0000	278.0
291		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-20.3899	0.0000	294.9
292		St. Francis NY	NEC	-20.4038	0.0000	286.0
293		Centenary	MCon	-20.4426	0.0000	281.6
294		Wagner	NEC	-20.4483	0.0000	297.6
295		Southern	SWAC	-21.1458	0.0000	300.3
296		Sacramento St.	BSky	-21.2383	0.0000	300.6
297		James Madison	CAA	-21.2499	0.0000	289.1
298		Long Island	NEC	-21.3894	0.0000	311.1
299		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-21.4635	0.0000	320.5
300		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-21.4683	0.0000	309.7
301		UC Davis	ind	-21.5323	0.0000	310.5
302		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-21.6056	0.0000	312.9
303		Northern Illinois	MAC	-21.6098	0.0000	289.4
304		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-21.6272	0.0000	306.3
305		Alabama St.	SWAC	-21.6595	0.0000	306.4
306		Howard	MEAC	-22.0356	0.0000	320.7
307		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-22.1273	0.0000	297.2
308		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-22.2903	0.0000	318.1
309		Lafayette	Pat	-22.3394	0.0000	289.7
310		Elon	SC	-22.4156	0.0000	293.0
311		Texas St.	Slnd	-22.5570	0.0000	318.5
312		Delaware	CAA	-22.5850	0.0000	295.2
313		Winston Salem St.	ind	-22.7386	0.0000	314.8
314		Longwood	ind	-22.7540	0.0000	306.5
315		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-22.7924	0.0000	326.7
316		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-22.7939	0.0000	316.2
317		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-22.8663	0.0000	331.2
318		Wofford	SC	-22.8696	0.0000	300.3
319		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-23.0130	0.0000	326.0
320		East Carolina	CUSA	-23.0920	0.0000	311.4
321		UC Riverside	BW	-23.0944	0.0000	317.0
322		St. Francis PA	NEC	-23.1826	0.0000	319.2
323		Radford	BSth	-23.4824	0.0000	317.3
324		Western Illinois	MCon	-23.5843	0.0000	326.9
325		South Dakota St.	ind	-23.6933	0.0000	327.3
326		St. Peter's	MAAC	-23.8081	0.0000	328.0
327		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-23.8892	0.0000	321.4
328		The Citadel	SC	-24.0142	0.0000	304.3
329		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-24.1158	0.0000	330.7
330		Idaho	WAC	-24.1213	0.0000	304.1
331		Iona	MAAC	-24.3356	0.0000	325.4
332		Northern Colorado	BSky	-24.3920	0.0000	335.2
333		Denver	SB	-24.4297	0.0000	333.0
334		North Florida	ASun	-24.5188	0.0000	334.0
335		Charleston Southern	BSth	-24.9879	0.0000	329.4
336		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-26.3281	0.0000	335.8

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, and to Jay Colemen for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com