Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive

Through games of Dec 27, 2006.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	UCLA	P10	8.3572	1.0000	2.3
2		Arizona	P10	8.1117	1.0000	3.6
3	X	North Carolina	ACC	7.3148	1.0000	4.0
4		Duke	ACC	7.2694	1.0000	3.3
5	X	Florida	SEC	7.2209	1.0000	8.5
6		Oregon	P10	6.2561	1.0000	11.8
7		Villanova	BE	5.6090	1.0000	6.7
8	X	Ohio St.	B10	5.1793	1.0000	14.6
9		Tennessee	SEC	5.1516	1.0000	11.8
10	X	Kansas	B12	5.1223	1.0000	26.3
11	X	Butler	Horz	5.0836	1.0000	26.1
12		Kentucky	SEC	5.0786	1.0000	12.4
13		Texas A&M	B12	4.9001	1.0000	18.7
14		Connecticut	BE	4.8714	1.0000	21.2
15	X	Notre Dame	BE	4.6083	1.0000	26.2
16		Air Force	MWC	4.5942	1.0000	24.0
17		Wisconsin	B10	4.5252	1.0000	22.6
18		Purdue	B10	4.5148	1.0000	24.7
19		Clemson	ACC	4.4605	1.0000	17.3
20	X	Memphis	CUSA	4.4566	1.0000	22.1
21		Georgia Tech	ACC	4.1697	1.0000	23.5
22		Maryland	ACC	4.1653	1.0000	14.6
23		Oklahoma St.	B12	3.8867	0.9999	20.1
24		Alabama	SEC	3.8060	0.9999	20.6
25		Michigan St.	B10	3.7898	0.9999	20.2
26		Georgia	SEC	3.7879	0.9999	25.9
27	X	Missouri St.	MVC	3.6505	0.9999	26.0
28		Mississippi St.	SEC	3.5709	0.9998	25.4
29		Illinois	B10	3.2247	0.9994	23.5
30		Pittsburgh	BE	3.2226	0.9994	20.0
31		Drexel	CAA	3.2161	0.9994	38.2
32		Indiana	B10	2.6205	0.9956	31.2
33	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	2.4838	0.9935	31.5
34	X	Gonzaga	WCC	2.2938	0.9891	40.9
35	X	Nevada	WAC	2.2787	0.9887	39.7
36	X	Xavier	A10	1.9591	0.9750	44.0
37		Virginia Tech	ACC	1.6549	0.9510	40.0
38		Wichita St.	MVC	1.6025	0.9455	45.7
39		Boston College	ACC	1.5276	0.9367	36.5
40		Marquette	BE	1.4399	0.9251	34.9
41		Georgetown	BE	1.4140	0.9213	39.0
42		Southern Illinois	MVC	1.2063	0.8862	41.7
43	X	Western Kentucky	SB	0.9072	0.8178	52.4
44		Providence	BE	0.6834	0.7528	42.6
45		Oklahoma	B12	0.6551	0.7438	43.9
46		Syracuse	BE	0.4241	0.6643	41.9
47	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.4099	0.6591	58.0
48		Missouri	B12	0.2859	0.6125	43.5
49		Texas	B12	0.2013	0.5798	53.2
50		West Virginia	BE	0.0631	0.5252	50.8
51		Florida St.	ACC	-0.0431	0.4828	44.7
52		Washington	P10	-0.0558	0.4777	48.3
53		Arkansas	SEC	-0.0793	0.4684	46.0
54		Louisiana St.	SEC	-0.1375	0.4453	49.2
55		Washington St.	P10	-0.1674	0.4335	55.1
56		Southern California	P10	-0.3916	0.3477	54.1
57		San Diego St.	MWC	-0.5531	0.2901	55.5
58		DePaul	BE	-0.5615	0.2872	53.3
59		Texas Tech	B12	-0.6586	0.2551	46.6
60		Bradley	MVC	-0.7250	0.2342	58.7
61		St. Louis	A10	-1.1001	0.1356	64.5
62		California	P10	-1.4912	0.0680	55.3
63		George Washington	A10	-1.5811	0.0569	72.1
64	X	Winthrop	BSth	-1.8202	0.0344	86.3
65		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-2.0071	0.0224	71.4
66		Michigan	B10	-2.0327	0.0210	62.6
67		Nebraska	B12	-2.1433	0.0160	71.1
68	X	Davidson	SC	-2.3197	0.0102	86.0
69		Massachusetts	A10	-2.3375	0.0097	82.2
70		Seton Hall	BE	-2.3735	0.0088	64.3
71		Creighton	MVC	-2.3809	0.0086	66.4
72		Brigham Young	MWC	-2.6870	0.0036	75.4
73		Louisville	BE	-2.8101	0.0025	67.4
74	X	Pennsylvania	Ivy	-3.0494	0.0011	91.4
75		Old Dominion	CAA	-3.2932	0.0005	80.7
76		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-3.3375	0.0004	85.1
77		Tulsa	CUSA	-3.4266	0.0003	81.3
78		Fresno St.	WAC	-3.4879	0.0002	95.1
79		Dayton	A10	-3.5782	0.0002	79.1
80		Stanford	P10	-3.5930	0.0002	75.3
81	X	Belmont	ASun	-3.6889	0.0001	110.5
82		Santa Clara	WCC	-3.8545	0.0001	91.2
83	X	Marist	MAAC	-3.8585	0.0001	109.0
84		Appalachian St.	SC	-3.8806	0.0001	101.7
85		Kansas St.	B12	-3.8822	0.0001	79.7
86	X	Akron	MAC	-3.9461	0.0000	104.7
87		George Mason	CAA	-4.0309	0.0000	95.7
88		Houston	CUSA	-4.0503	0.0000	83.4
89	X	UC Santa Barbara	BW	-4.1910	0.0000	109.4
90		Virginia	ACC	-4.2829	0.0000	82.8
91		Illinois St.	MVC	-4.3424	0.0000	81.5
92		Kent St.	MAC	-4.4221	0.0000	107.0
93		Cincinnati	BE	-4.4304	0.0000	82.0
94		UAB	CUSA	-4.5311	0.0000	96.3
95		Mississippi	SEC	-4.5568	0.0000	77.3
96		Temple	A10	-4.7701	0.0000	93.6
97		South Carolina	SEC	-4.8125	0.0000	82.9
98		New Mexico	MWC	-4.8127	0.0000	93.9
99		North Texas	SB	-4.8268	0.0000	120.8
100		Wake Forest	ACC	-4.9434	0.0000	91.8
101		Hawaii	WAC	-4.9495	0.0000	96.6
102		Utah St.	WAC	-5.0635	0.0000	97.7
103		Northern Iowa	MVC	-5.1341	0.0000	92.2
104		New Mexico St.	WAC	-5.4116	0.0000	110.2
105		Northwestern	B10	-5.6453	0.0000	99.2
106	X	Bucknell	Pat	-5.6914	0.0000	116.7
107		Vanderbilt	SEC	-5.7262	0.0000	95.5
108		Holy Cross	Pat	-5.7700	0.0000	108.5
109		Saint Joseph's	A10	-5.8962	0.0000	102.1
110	X	Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-5.9079	0.0000	128.2
111		Ohio	MAC	-5.9705	0.0000	117.6
112		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-6.0431	0.0000	126.8
113	X	Albany	AE	-6.1667	0.0000	128.0
114		Central Florida	CUSA	-6.4667	0.0000	131.2
115	X	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-6.4800	0.0000	127.2
116	X	Eastern Washington	BSky	-6.5308	0.0000	131.3
117		Penn St.	B10	-6.6197	0.0000	101.0
118		Evansville	MVC	-6.6923	0.0000	101.0
119		Utah	MWC	-6.7198	0.0000	119.0
120		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-6.9484	0.0000	124.3
121		Long Beach St.	BW	-6.9629	0.0000	128.4
122		Iowa	B10	-6.9781	0.0000	109.5
123		Boise St.	WAC	-7.0810	0.0000	132.7
124		Fordham	A10	-7.1248	0.0000	131.5
125		Army	Pat	-7.1322	0.0000	127.8
126		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-7.1738	0.0000	139.3
127		Vermont	AE	-7.2173	0.0000	141.5
128		Navy	Pat	-7.3357	0.0000	131.9
129		Drake	MVC	-7.3561	0.0000	104.6
130		Western Michigan	MAC	-7.5257	0.0000	141.0
131	X	Sacred Heart	NEC	-7.6152	0.0000	149.0
132		Samford	OVC	-7.8094	0.0000	150.7
133		Baylor	B12	-7.8794	0.0000	105.9
134		Miami FL	ACC	-8.0885	0.0000	126.1
135		Idaho St.	BSky	-8.1676	0.0000	142.9
136		North Carolina St.	ACC	-8.2292	0.0000	113.1
137		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-8.2394	0.0000	135.3
138		North Dakota St.	ind	-8.3223	0.0000	160.6
139		College of Charleston	SC	-8.3276	0.0000	145.8
140		Robert Morris	NEC	-8.3280	0.0000	157.2
141		Auburn	SEC	-8.3774	0.0000	110.0
142	X	Oral Roberts	MCon	-8.4266	0.0000	148.0
143		Colorado St.	MWC	-8.5740	0.0000	131.4
144		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-8.7949	0.0000	141.5
145		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-9.1160	0.0000	149.9
146		Miami OH	MAC	-9.1573	0.0000	142.9
147		San Diego	WCC	-9.2976	0.0000	152.8
148		American	Pat	-9.3587	0.0000	159.1
149		Towson	CAA	-9.3760	0.0000	139.9
150		Toledo	MAC	-9.6653	0.0000	160.6
151		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-9.7133	0.0000	161.4
152		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-9.7430	0.0000	164.4
153		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-9.7558	0.0000	143.1
154		Siena	MAAC	-9.7623	0.0000	172.6
155		Oakland	MCon	-9.7812	0.0000	158.9
156		Rider	MAAC	-9.9803	0.0000	174.4
157	X	Jackson St.	SWAC	-10.2051	0.0000	179.6
158		St. John's	BE	-10.3069	0.0000	122.8
159		Indiana St.	MVC	-10.3983	0.0000	131.9
160		Charlotte	A10	-10.4496	0.0000	143.4
161		Portland St.	BSky	-10.4695	0.0000	173.6
162		Lipscomb	ASun	-10.4931	0.0000	178.3
163		Hartford	AE	-10.6511	0.0000	174.8
164		UC Irvine	BW	-10.6589	0.0000	166.7
165		Youngstown St.	Horz	-10.7431	0.0000	171.9
166		Chattanooga	SC	-10.7654	0.0000	175.2
167		IUPUI	MCon	-10.8828	0.0000	176.9
168		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-10.9387	0.0000	181.2
169		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-10.9897	0.0000	185.9
170		Utah Valley St.	ind	-11.0645	0.0000	189.5
171		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-11.1106	0.0000	190.5
172		Texas Christian	MWC	-11.1502	0.0000	145.6
173	X	Delaware St.	MEAC	-11.1573	0.0000	184.8
174		Wyoming	MWC	-11.2697	0.0000	154.4
175		Furman	SC	-11.2862	0.0000	184.2
176		Princeton	Ivy	-11.4075	0.0000	182.5
177		Buffalo	MAC	-11.4700	0.0000	180.3
178		Middle Tennessee	SB	-11.4925	0.0000	182.4
179		South Alabama	SB	-11.4949	0.0000	177.4
180		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-11.5364	0.0000	193.6
181		Austin Peay	OVC	-11.5631	0.0000	193.9
182		Harvard	Ivy	-11.5642	0.0000	180.9
183		Rhode Island	A10	-11.6976	0.0000	155.9
184		St. Mary's	WCC	-11.7537	0.0000	167.6
185		Columbia	Ivy	-11.7697	0.0000	190.6
186		Minnesota	B10	-12.1691	0.0000	152.6
187		Georgia Southern	SC	-12.2489	0.0000	197.8
188		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-12.3151	0.0000	206.8
189		Arizona St.	P10	-12.5183	0.0000	158.5
190		Lehigh	Pat	-12.6056	0.0000	199.6
191		South Florida	BE	-12.6236	0.0000	154.9
192		Canisius	MAAC	-12.6249	0.0000	201.5
193		Valparaiso	MCon	-12.6507	0.0000	199.6
194		Rice	CUSA	-12.7862	0.0000	179.7
195		Southern Utah	MCon	-12.8763	0.0000	205.6
196		Loyola MD	MAAC	-12.9067	0.0000	207.4
197		Oregon St.	P10	-12.9424	0.0000	154.9
198		Morehead St.	OVC	-13.0219	0.0000	215.0
199		Ball St.	MAC	-13.0394	0.0000	190.1
200		NC Wilmington	CAA	-13.1196	0.0000	191.2
201		Hofstra	CAA	-13.1579	0.0000	192.0
202		Pepperdine	WCC	-13.2399	0.0000	194.1
203		Tennessee St.	OVC	-13.2469	0.0000	205.3
204		Brown	Ivy	-13.2752	0.0000	211.8
205		Murray St.	OVC	-13.2848	0.0000	210.9
206		La Salle	A10	-13.3038	0.0000	186.2
207		Boston University	AE	-13.8169	0.0000	213.7
208		Cornell	Ivy	-13.8426	0.0000	219.8
209		Arkansas St.	SB	-13.8684	0.0000	216.0
210		Maine	AE	-13.9538	0.0000	214.6
211		MD Baltimore County	AE	-14.0529	0.0000	212.5
212		William & Mary	CAA	-14.3277	0.0000	195.7
213		Iowa St.	B12	-14.4569	0.0000	174.7
214		New Orleans	SB	-14.4572	0.0000	221.7
215		High Point	BSth	-14.5013	0.0000	221.2
216		Weber St.	BSky	-14.6332	0.0000	222.7
217		Lamar	Slnd	-14.6461	0.0000	227.3
218		Troy	SB	-14.6763	0.0000	221.5
219		Campbell	ASun	-14.6767	0.0000	224.5
220		NC Greensboro	SC	-14.7574	0.0000	225.5
221		Monmouth	NEC	-14.8982	0.0000	224.2
222		Tulane	CUSA	-15.0492	0.0000	211.5
223		Jacksonville	ASun	-15.0920	0.0000	230.8
224		Rutgers	BE	-15.2882	0.0000	174.7
225		Pacific	BW	-15.3108	0.0000	218.5
226		Yale	Ivy	-15.3647	0.0000	225.0
227		Montana	BSky	-15.4210	0.0000	232.1
228		Stony Brook	AE	-15.4295	0.0000	235.4
229		Binghamton	AE	-15.4952	0.0000	237.4
230		Fairfield	MAAC	-15.9110	0.0000	223.0
231		Texas Pan American	ind	-16.0714	0.0000	242.7
232		Marshall	CUSA	-16.2828	0.0000	219.1
233		Richmond	A10	-16.3208	0.0000	212.3
234		Stetson	ASun	-16.3393	0.0000	242.7
235		Coppin St.	MEAC	-16.3631	0.0000	234.3
236		Western Carolina	SC	-16.4730	0.0000	235.4
237		Northeastern	CAA	-16.5480	0.0000	219.9
238		Bowling Green	MAC	-16.5951	0.0000	240.5
239		Chicago St.	MCon	-16.6562	0.0000	230.3
240		Northern Arizona	BSky	-16.7342	0.0000	251.1
241		Cleveland St.	Horz	-16.7406	0.0000	239.0
242		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-16.7493	0.0000	246.1
243		Central Michigan	MAC	-17.0424	0.0000	246.5
244		San Francisco	WCC	-17.0488	0.0000	234.5
245		Mercer	ASun	-17.0750	0.0000	259.7
246		Hampton	MEAC	-17.1071	0.0000	256.0
247		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-17.1207	0.0000	259.0
248		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-17.1441	0.0000	248.8
249		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-17.2254	0.0000	249.0
250		Florida A&M	MEAC	-17.4258	0.0000	263.2
251		Florida Atlantic	SB	-17.4296	0.0000	248.8
252		Centenary	MCon	-17.4937	0.0000	253.9
253		Detroit	Horz	-17.5448	0.0000	240.6
254		Texas Southern	SWAC	-17.6223	0.0000	265.0
255		Niagara	MAAC	-17.6593	0.0000	263.5
256		Howard	MEAC	-17.6752	0.0000	272.2
257		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-17.7202	0.0000	258.5
258		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-17.7244	0.0000	265.3
259		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-17.7969	0.0000	266.1
260		Liberty	BSth	-17.8595	0.0000	258.7
261		St. Peter's	MAAC	-17.9271	0.0000	264.7
262		Lafayette	Pat	-17.9628	0.0000	247.8
263		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-18.0393	0.0000	271.4
264		Northern Illinois	MAC	-18.0435	0.0000	262.3
265		Cal Poly	BW	-18.0572	0.0000	266.8
266		Colgate	Pat	-18.1973	0.0000	258.5
267		Florida International	SB	-18.2669	0.0000	259.2
268		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-18.3265	0.0000	277.6
269		Duquesne	A10	-18.3529	0.0000	244.2
270		IUPU Fort Wayne	ind	-18.4060	0.0000	273.7
271		Wright St.	Horz	-18.6039	0.0000	257.7
272		St. Francis PA	NEC	-18.6531	0.0000	280.4
273		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-18.9128	0.0000	270.1
274		Georgia St.	CAA	-18.9593	0.0000	250.3
275		McNeese St.	Slnd	-19.1243	0.0000	268.0
276		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-19.1330	0.0000	254.5
277		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-19.1684	0.0000	242.3
278		San Jose St.	WAC	-19.3182	0.0000	250.5
279		Longwood	ind	-19.3411	0.0000	271.2
280		Radford	BSth	-19.3840	0.0000	277.1
281		Southern	SWAC	-19.5505	0.0000	286.8
282		NC Asheville	BSth	-19.5996	0.0000	283.3
283		Charleston Southern	BSth	-20.0483	0.0000	293.5
284		Grambling	SWAC	-20.1274	0.0000	296.7
285		Manhattan	MAAC	-20.2485	0.0000	293.1
286		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-20.2817	0.0000	279.1
287		Dartmouth	Ivy	-20.3106	0.0000	280.1
288		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-20.3347	0.0000	290.4
289		Morgan St.	MEAC	-20.3830	0.0000	298.1
290		Quinnipiac	NEC	-20.4455	0.0000	301.8
291		Long Island	NEC	-20.5278	0.0000	303.1
292		Alabama St.	SWAC	-20.5331	0.0000	298.4
293		Colorado	B12	-20.5366	0.0000	241.7
294		Central Connecticut	NEC	-20.6713	0.0000	300.5
295		Wagner	NEC	-20.6798	0.0000	302.9
296		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-20.7277	0.0000	305.8
297		New Hampshire	AE	-20.7644	0.0000	300.6
298		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-20.8584	0.0000	302.7
299		UC Davis	ind	-20.9571	0.0000	307.1
300		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-20.9922	0.0000	293.6
301		Wofford	SC	-21.1152	0.0000	295.1
302		East Carolina	CUSA	-21.1642	0.0000	286.7
303		Western Illinois	MCon	-21.1652	0.0000	302.0
304		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-21.2284	0.0000	304.0
305		Elon	SC	-21.5180	0.0000	286.4
306		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-21.6994	0.0000	294.6
307		Gardner Webb	ASun	-21.7281	0.0000	295.4
308		Delaware	CAA	-21.7699	0.0000	294.3
309		James Madison	CAA	-21.7717	0.0000	284.9
310		Sacramento St.	BSky	-21.8539	0.0000	303.5
311		UC Riverside	BW	-21.9943	0.0000	309.1
312		Missouri Kansas City	MCon	-22.2190	0.0000	307.2
313		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-22.2477	0.0000	320.8
314		Savannah St.	ind	-22.3409	0.0000	311.0
315		Texas St.	Slnd	-22.3868	0.0000	313.2
316		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-22.3923	0.0000	321.1
317		St. Francis NY	NEC	-22.4033	0.0000	314.4
318		Iona	MAAC	-22.4057	0.0000	312.7
319		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-22.4070	0.0000	316.0
320		Idaho	WAC	-22.5137	0.0000	283.7
321		Portland	WCC	-22.6841	0.0000	296.3
322		Northern Colorado	BSky	-23.0101	0.0000	330.3
323		The Citadel	SC	-23.0148	0.0000	300.3
324		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-23.1083	0.0000	318.1
325		Winston Salem St.	ind	-23.1985	0.0000	321.7
326		South Dakota St.	ind	-23.2193	0.0000	326.7
327		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-23.3537	0.0000	331.0
328		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-23.3550	0.0000	309.8
329		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-23.4505	0.0000	324.6
330		St. Bonaventure	A10	-23.4890	0.0000	308.4
331		Montana St.	BSky	-23.6744	0.0000	328.1
332		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-23.6937	0.0000	319.1
333		North Florida	ASun	-23.8275	0.0000	329.9
334		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-23.8401	0.0000	322.9
335		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-24.0728	0.0000	334.5
336		Denver	SB	-24.8202	0.0000	334.9

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, and to Jay Colemen for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com