Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Jan 26, 2008.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	9.7589	1.0000	1.8
2		Duke	ACC	9.4140	1.0000	3.6
3	X	Kansas	B12	9.0191	1.0000	3.5
4	X	Memphis	CUSA	8.2318	1.0000	3.1
5	X	Tennessee	SEC	8.0188	1.0000	3.3
6	X	UCLA	P10	7.5380	1.0000	7.7
7		Georgetown	BE	6.2252	1.0000	11.3
8		Michigan St.	B10	6.1859	1.0000	11.7
9		Washington St.	P10	6.0937	1.0000	13.9
10	X	Xavier	A10	6.0588	1.0000	10.3
11		Indiana	B10	5.7407	1.0000	16.9
12	X	Drake	MVC	5.1241	1.0000	16.0
13		Arizona	P10	4.7172	1.0000	11.0
14		Texas	B12	4.6435	1.0000	11.2
15		Marquette	BE	4.5287	1.0000	17.9
16		Clemson	ACC	4.4413	1.0000	23.6
17	X	West Virginia	BE	4.3269	1.0000	21.6
18	X	Wisconsin	B10	4.1620	1.0000	19.5
19		Mississippi	SEC	3.8373	0.9999	23.1
20	X	Butler	Horz	3.7632	0.9999	31.5
21		St. Mary's	WCC	3.6088	0.9998	28.1
22		Southern California	P10	3.5856	0.9998	29.2
23		Oklahoma	B12	3.5773	0.9998	21.6
24	X	Gonzaga	WCC	3.4837	0.9998	33.3
25		Ohio St.	B10	3.4754	0.9997	24.6
26		Stanford	P10	3.4471	0.9997	29.0
27		Pittsburgh	BE	3.2004	0.9993	24.6
28		Notre Dame	BE	2.9448	0.9984	34.0
29		Rhode Island	A10	2.9389	0.9984	32.0
30		Connecticut	BE	2.6996	0.9965	23.9
31		Vanderbilt	SEC	2.5898	0.9952	23.3
32		Louisville	BE	2.5887	0.9952	24.5
33		Kansas St.	B12	2.5410	0.9945	26.7
34		Florida	SEC	2.5193	0.9941	33.4
35		Mississippi St.	SEC	2.2854	0.9889	31.4
36	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	2.2575	0.9880	33.2
37		Baylor	B12	2.1311	0.9835	29.9
38		Arkansas	SEC	1.8300	0.9664	35.2
39		Dayton	A10	1.4294	0.9236	33.1
40		Texas A&M	B12	1.4278	0.9233	35.8
41		Brigham Young	MWC	1.3943	0.9184	46.3
42	X	South Alabama	SB	1.2169	0.8882	49.4
43		Miami FL	ACC	0.9223	0.8218	38.7
44		Illinois St.	MVC	0.6280	0.7350	51.9
45		Massachusetts	A10	0.6115	0.7296	44.1
46		Kent St.	MAC	0.4598	0.6772	60.3
47	X	Davidson	SC	0.0608	0.5242	65.3
48		Duquesne	A10	0.0232	0.5092	53.1
49		Syracuse	BE	-0.1659	0.4341	39.1
50	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-0.1694	0.4328	62.4
51		Saint Joseph's	A10	-0.2063	0.4183	51.5
52		George Mason	CAA	-0.2599	0.3975	64.4
53		Oregon	P10	-0.4725	0.3183	53.4
54		Creighton	MVC	-0.8011	0.2115	55.9
55		Purdue	B10	-0.9319	0.1757	69.7
56		Missouri	B12	-1.0012	0.1584	53.9
57		Houston	CUSA	-1.0543	0.1459	60.3
58		Ohio	MAC	-1.1109	0.1333	66.0
59		New Mexico	MWC	-1.3676	0.0857	64.3
60		Western Kentucky	SB	-1.4019	0.0805	70.1
61		UAB	CUSA	-1.4532	0.0731	67.0
62		Southern Illinois	MVC	-1.4848	0.0688	65.6
63		Maryland	ACC	-1.5195	0.0643	52.2
64		Charlotte	A10	-1.6168	0.0530	72.7
65		Providence	BE	-1.7656	0.0387	60.8
66	X	Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-1.7717	0.0382	77.8
67		Texas Tech	B12	-1.8841	0.0298	62.2
68		Oral Roberts	Sum	-1.9033	0.0285	82.0
69		Florida St.	ACC	-1.9944	0.0231	58.5
70		North Carolina St.	ACC	-1.9963	0.0229	68.7
71		San Diego St.	MWC	-2.0062	0.0224	66.6
72		Virginia Tech	ACC	-2.0817	0.0187	71.8
73		Arizona St.	P10	-2.1013	0.0178	71.5
74		Cleveland St.	Horz	-2.3432	0.0096	79.6
75		Georgia Tech	ACC	-2.4576	0.0070	70.9
76		California	P10	-2.8115	0.0025	64.8
77		Seton Hall	BE	-2.8291	0.0023	71.2
78	X	Akron	MAC	-2.8329	0.0023	87.4
79		Villanova	BE	-2.8373	0.0023	76.0
80	X	Cal St. Northridge	BW	-2.8940	0.0019	90.8
81		Kentucky	SEC	-2.9459	0.0016	75.1
82		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-2.9588	0.0015	88.1
83	X	IUPUI	Sum	-3.4270	0.0003	105.9
84		Boston College	ACC	-3.4302	0.0003	71.3
85	X	Winthrop	BSth	-3.4852	0.0002	103.9
86	X	Siena	MAAC	-3.5088	0.0002	94.8
87		Minnesota	B10	-3.7128	0.0001	80.8
88		Utah	MWC	-3.7798	0.0001	76.4
89		Nevada	WAC	-3.7998	0.0001	90.5
90		Boise St.	WAC	-3.9787	0.0000	110.7
91		Georgia	SEC	-4.0220	0.0000	90.2
92		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-4.1458	0.0000	100.1
93		Virginia	ACC	-4.2025	0.0000	77.8
94		Miami OH	MAC	-4.2513	0.0000	90.0
95		Temple	A10	-4.2667	0.0000	81.6
96		Wake Forest	ACC	-4.3552	0.0000	87.9
97		Wright St.	Horz	-4.3866	0.0000	98.8
98		Valparaiso	Horz	-4.5335	0.0000	98.6
99		Washington	P10	-4.6127	0.0000	89.7
100		Pacific	BW	-4.7925	0.0000	115.0
101		NC Asheville	BSth	-4.9262	0.0000	115.4
102		Chattanooga	SC	-4.9422	0.0000	103.6
103		Illinois	B10	-5.1146	0.0000	94.5
104	X	Northern Arizona	BSky	-5.1812	0.0000	122.7
105		Utah St.	WAC	-5.2669	0.0000	116.0
106		Central Florida	CUSA	-5.3724	0.0000	106.9
107		Marist	MAAC	-5.4111	0.0000	108.2
108		Hampton	MEAC	-5.4956	0.0000	121.5
109		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-5.5588	0.0000	120.0
110		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-5.7201	0.0000	114.0
111		Niagara	MAAC	-5.8281	0.0000	121.5
112		Cincinnati	BE	-5.9689	0.0000	108.9
113		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-6.0973	0.0000	100.6
114		North Texas	SB	-6.1993	0.0000	125.9
115		Appalachian St.	SC	-6.3087	0.0000	133.5
116		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-6.3149	0.0000	125.5
117		South Carolina	SEC	-6.3178	0.0000	97.6
118		Alabama	SEC	-6.3371	0.0000	87.5
119	X	MD Baltimore County	AE	-6.4057	0.0000	134.8
120	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-6.4121	0.0000	122.1
121	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-6.4794	0.0000	121.8
122		Cornell	Ivy	-6.5007	0.0000	131.7
123		Lafayette	Pat	-6.6256	0.0000	130.8
124		Georgia Southern	SC	-6.7708	0.0000	126.2
125		Tulane	CUSA	-6.8771	0.0000	120.3
126		NC Greensboro	SC	-6.9971	0.0000	133.2
127		Marshall	CUSA	-7.0320	0.0000	124.1
128		Northern Iowa	MVC	-7.0434	0.0000	123.5
129		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-7.2989	0.0000	124.5
130	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-7.3055	0.0000	145.3
131		Rider	MAAC	-7.3167	0.0000	138.9
132		Iowa St.	B12	-7.5322	0.0000	116.3
133	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-7.6505	0.0000	150.1
134		Oklahoma St.	B12	-7.7259	0.0000	110.2
135		Bradley	MVC	-7.7377	0.0000	121.6
136		Nebraska	B12	-7.8558	0.0000	122.2
137		Belmont	ASun	-7.9025	0.0000	158.5
138		Old Dominion	CAA	-7.9136	0.0000	133.5
139	X	Brown	Ivy	-7.9684	0.0000	139.0
140		American	Pat	-7.9691	0.0000	149.9
141	X	East Tennessee St.	ASun	-8.1975	0.0000	148.3
142		DePaul	BE	-8.3635	0.0000	122.5
143		Missouri St.	MVC	-8.3922	0.0000	122.8
144		Tulsa	CUSA	-8.4347	0.0000	137.0
145		Wagner	NEC	-8.4655	0.0000	158.3
146		Indiana St.	MVC	-8.7389	0.0000	138.3
147		New Orleans	SB	-8.7976	0.0000	150.2
148		Auburn	SEC	-8.9326	0.0000	124.0
149	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-9.0754	0.0000	163.5
150		Portland St.	BSky	-9.2451	0.0000	171.4
151		Penn St.	B10	-9.3454	0.0000	138.7
152		South Florida	BE	-9.5302	0.0000	129.4
153		Richmond	A10	-9.6556	0.0000	147.5
154		St. Louis	A10	-9.6582	0.0000	132.7
155		Fresno St.	WAC	-9.7296	0.0000	150.9
156		Western Michigan	MAC	-9.7576	0.0000	171.0
157		St. John's	BE	-9.9240	0.0000	126.7
158		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-9.9429	0.0000	173.8
159		Murray St.	OVC	-10.0648	0.0000	176.4
160		Delaware	CAA	-10.0823	0.0000	166.2
161		Yale	Ivy	-10.1331	0.0000	171.0
162		Fordham	A10	-10.2422	0.0000	146.6
163		NC Wilmington	CAA	-10.2894	0.0000	167.6
164		Bucknell	Pat	-10.4456	0.0000	173.4
165		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-10.4720	0.0000	153.3
166		Sacred Heart	NEC	-10.4743	0.0000	185.3
167		Loyola MD	MAAC	-10.4914	0.0000	176.5
168		Quinnipiac	NEC	-10.6908	0.0000	188.4
169		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-10.7599	0.0000	156.9
170		Lamar	Slnd	-10.8247	0.0000	180.5
171		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-10.9168	0.0000	176.7
172		San Diego	WCC	-11.0876	0.0000	156.7
173		Oakland	Sum	-11.1162	0.0000	183.6
174		William & Mary	CAA	-11.1260	0.0000	178.8
175		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-11.1744	0.0000	171.0
176		Texas Christian	MWC	-11.2396	0.0000	161.9
177		James Madison	CAA	-11.2529	0.0000	177.6
178		Iowa	B10	-11.3312	0.0000	161.9
179		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-11.3712	0.0000	191.0
180		Santa Clara	WCC	-11.4776	0.0000	174.4
181		Air Force	MWC	-11.6820	0.0000	168.4
182		Montana St.	BSky	-11.7934	0.0000	188.5
183		Colorado	B12	-12.0767	0.0000	156.3
184		Jacksonville	ASun	-12.1940	0.0000	200.1
185		Vermont	AE	-12.2576	0.0000	199.2
186		Albany	AE	-12.2827	0.0000	202.7
187		UC Irvine	BW	-12.3081	0.0000	179.3
188		Weber St.	BSky	-12.4181	0.0000	197.1
189		Wichita St.	MVC	-12.5272	0.0000	167.1
190		Middle Tennessee	SB	-12.6131	0.0000	183.9
191		Rutgers	BE	-12.6317	0.0000	167.9
192		Central Michigan	MAC	-12.6762	0.0000	195.1
193		North Dakota St.	Sum	-12.7001	0.0000	196.0
194		Long Island	NEC	-12.8421	0.0000	198.4
195		Binghamton	AE	-12.9071	0.0000	216.7
196		Bowling Green	MAC	-13.4561	0.0000	196.7
197		San Jose St.	WAC	-13.4900	0.0000	207.8
198		College of Charleston	SC	-13.5050	0.0000	194.5
199		Fairfield	MAAC	-13.5225	0.0000	208.0
200		Wofford	SC	-13.5236	0.0000	199.7
201	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-13.5315	0.0000	230.1
202		Central Connecticut	NEC	-13.6422	0.0000	214.6
203		Michigan	B10	-13.6560	0.0000	175.2
204		Liberty	BSth	-13.6967	0.0000	209.7
205		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-14.0038	0.0000	216.0
206		Montana	BSky	-14.0144	0.0000	219.0
207		East Carolina	CUSA	-14.1819	0.0000	211.1
208		Troy	SB	-14.4877	0.0000	205.0
209		Lehigh	Pat	-14.5421	0.0000	225.7
210		George Washington	A10	-14.5669	0.0000	191.1
211		Northwestern	B10	-14.5936	0.0000	187.2
212		Colgate	Pat	-14.6845	0.0000	216.2
213		Chicago St.	ind	-14.9105	0.0000	220.4
214		Hartford	AE	-14.9843	0.0000	224.2
215		Morehead St.	OVC	-15.1101	0.0000	235.6
216		Pepperdine	WCC	-15.1258	0.0000	204.8
217		Tennessee St.	OVC	-15.1933	0.0000	237.2
218		Hawaii	WAC	-15.2082	0.0000	221.9
219		Toledo	MAC	-15.2345	0.0000	209.2
220		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-15.2660	0.0000	212.3
221		Youngstown St.	Horz	-15.3378	0.0000	199.8
222		Denver	SB	-15.3542	0.0000	232.4
223		Towson	CAA	-15.5126	0.0000	226.5
224		Iona	MAAC	-15.5253	0.0000	228.8
225		Delaware St.	MEAC	-15.5615	0.0000	231.9
226		Louisiana St.	SEC	-15.6073	0.0000	183.3
227		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-15.6630	0.0000	240.8
228		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-15.7111	0.0000	221.7
229		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-15.8166	0.0000	235.7
230		Drexel	CAA	-15.8987	0.0000	212.2
231		Arkansas St.	SB	-15.9660	0.0000	236.2
232		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-16.0188	0.0000	242.8
233		Columbia	Ivy	-16.3192	0.0000	245.0
234		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-16.3371	0.0000	249.0
235		Gardner Webb	ASun	-16.3598	0.0000	247.3
236		Hofstra	CAA	-16.3762	0.0000	233.8
237		Northeastern	CAA	-16.3966	0.0000	221.3
238		Cal Poly	BW	-16.4837	0.0000	228.1
239		Navy	Pat	-16.5027	0.0000	251.2
240		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-16.6426	0.0000	238.4
241		High Point	BSth	-16.7851	0.0000	245.9
242		La Salle	A10	-16.9122	0.0000	219.8
243		Utah Valley St.	ind	-17.0386	0.0000	263.3
244		Southern	SWAC	-17.0444	0.0000	261.5
245		Army	Pat	-17.1254	0.0000	252.8
246		Harvard	Ivy	-17.3166	0.0000	256.9
247		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-17.3487	0.0000	265.3
248		Wyoming	MWC	-17.4287	0.0000	215.5
249		Stetson	ASun	-17.6855	0.0000	258.6
250		San Francisco	WCC	-17.9152	0.0000	243.9
251		Evansville	MVC	-18.1087	0.0000	230.0
252		Western Illinois	Sum	-18.1776	0.0000	257.3
253		Lipscomb	ASun	-18.2094	0.0000	269.4
254		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-18.2323	0.0000	250.3
255		St. Bonaventure	A10	-18.2498	0.0000	229.6
256		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-18.3055	0.0000	259.3
257		Centenary	Sum	-18.3163	0.0000	262.6
258		Buffalo	MAC	-18.3665	0.0000	240.4
259		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-18.4754	0.0000	270.1
260		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-18.5309	0.0000	257.4
261		Florida Atlantic	SB	-18.5454	0.0000	249.3
262		Colorado St.	MWC	-18.5680	0.0000	224.6
263		Mercer	ASun	-18.6466	0.0000	286.9
264		Manhattan	MAAC	-18.6594	0.0000	269.4
265		Dartmouth	Ivy	-18.7048	0.0000	277.4
266		Elon	SC	-18.7296	0.0000	257.0
267		Eastern Washington	BSky	-18.8174	0.0000	269.8
268		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-18.8201	0.0000	280.6
269		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-18.8768	0.0000	252.3
270		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-18.9004	0.0000	290.3
271		Northern Colorado	BSky	-19.0083	0.0000	280.5
272		Campbell	ASun	-19.0447	0.0000	283.9
273		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-19.1168	0.0000	298.7
274		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-19.1543	0.0000	269.9
275		Oregon St.	P10	-19.3064	0.0000	230.4
276		UC Davis	BW	-19.3235	0.0000	272.9
277		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-19.3328	0.0000	271.0
278		Texas St.	Slnd	-19.3803	0.0000	274.9
279		Savannah St.	ind	-19.6815	0.0000	287.0
280		McNeese St.	Slnd	-19.7246	0.0000	278.3
281		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-19.7768	0.0000	290.7
282		Southern Utah	Sum	-19.7929	0.0000	272.8
283		Samford	OVC	-19.8307	0.0000	291.9
284		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-19.9092	0.0000	284.7
285		Florida A&M	MEAC	-19.9138	0.0000	282.7
286		Florida International	SB	-20.0153	0.0000	260.3
287		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-20.1423	0.0000	294.3
288		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-20.1682	0.0000	300.6
289		Texas Pan American	ind	-20.2303	0.0000	308.3
290		Princeton	Ivy	-20.2509	0.0000	293.7
291		Idaho St.	BSky	-20.2831	0.0000	290.2
292		New Hampshire	AE	-20.2964	0.0000	295.0
293		Ball St.	MAC	-20.3977	0.0000	269.8
294		Northern Illinois	MAC	-20.4778	0.0000	272.1
295		Georgia St.	CAA	-20.4922	0.0000	283.1
296		Boston University	AE	-20.6005	0.0000	291.2
297		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-20.7353	0.0000	302.5
298		Portland	WCC	-20.8330	0.0000	275.8
299		Rice	CUSA	-20.8651	0.0000	267.1
300		St. Francis PA	NEC	-20.9450	0.0000	299.1
301		Jackson St.	SWAC	-21.0205	0.0000	299.1
302		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-21.0322	0.0000	305.5
303		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-21.0820	0.0000	298.3
304		Western Carolina	SC	-21.1484	0.0000	285.0
305		St. Francis NY	NEC	-21.2711	0.0000	303.6
306		South Dakota St.	Sum	-21.5311	0.0000	298.3
307		Detroit	Horz	-21.6412	0.0000	279.3
308		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-21.6979	0.0000	297.4
309		St. Peter's	MAAC	-21.7083	0.0000	294.5
310		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-22.0325	0.0000	304.7
311		Monmouth	NEC	-22.0326	0.0000	309.0
312		Coppin St.	MEAC	-22.2778	0.0000	300.4
313		Idaho	WAC	-22.4421	0.0000	306.3
314		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-22.4814	0.0000	305.8
315		UC Riverside	BW	-22.5929	0.0000	293.1
316		Long Beach St.	BW	-22.8187	0.0000	306.3
317		Maine	AE	-23.0271	0.0000	321.6
318		Texas Southern	SWAC	-23.0840	0.0000	319.8
319		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-23.1556	0.0000	328.7
320		Longwood	ind	-23.1598	0.0000	330.4
321		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-23.1712	0.0000	331.7
322		Furman	SC	-23.2244	0.0000	312.3
323		Stony Brook	AE	-23.2765	0.0000	325.5
324		Radford	BSth	-23.3553	0.0000	325.0
325		Charleston Southern	BSth	-23.5192	0.0000	324.3
326		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.5705	0.0000	336.6
327		North Carolina Central	ind	-23.6875	0.0000	320.4
328		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-23.6899	0.0000	332.4
329		Canisius	MAAC	-23.7154	0.0000	322.1
330		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-23.7961	0.0000	316.5
331		Howard	MEAC	-23.8071	0.0000	323.9
332		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-23.9170	0.0000	336.4
333		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-24.0273	0.0000	305.6
334		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-24.1773	0.0000	340.9
335		Presbyterian	ind	-24.1915	0.0000	326.9
336		Sacramento St.	BSky	-24.2478	0.0000	328.6
337		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-24.4058	0.0000	337.5
338		Grambling	SWAC	-24.7437	0.0000	337.5
339		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-24.8896	0.0000	336.0
340		The Citadel	SC	-25.3686	0.0000	328.4
341		North Florida	ASun	-25.7847	0.0000	338.7

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com