Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Feb 26, 2008.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	9.7380	1.0000	2.2
2	X	Tennessee	SEC	8.8501	1.0000	1.2
3	X	Memphis	CUSA	8.7296	1.0000	2.8
4		Texas	B12	8.3149	1.0000	4.7
5		Duke	ACC	8.2265	1.0000	4.3
6	X	UCLA	P10	8.0639	1.0000	6.5
7	X	Xavier	A10	7.7961	1.0000	6.8
8	X	Kansas	B12	7.1524	1.0000	9.0
9		Indiana	B10	7.0014	1.0000	13.0
10		Louisville	BE	5.7503	1.0000	9.2
11		Georgetown	BE	5.5157	1.0000	11.7
12	X	Butler	Horz	5.3589	1.0000	19.9
13		Stanford	P10	5.3535	1.0000	18.9
14	X	Marquette	BE	5.3303	1.0000	14.7
15		Notre Dame	BE	5.0650	1.0000	24.0
16	X	Wisconsin	B10	5.0645	1.0000	10.9
17	X	Drake	MVC	5.0283	1.0000	16.0
18		Connecticut	BE	4.9704	1.0000	14.1
19		Michigan St.	B10	4.7811	1.0000	17.8
20		Washington St.	P10	4.7787	1.0000	21.7
21		Vanderbilt	SEC	4.7307	1.0000	11.1
22		Arizona	P10	3.9850	1.0000	18.7
23		Clemson	ACC	3.9397	1.0000	24.5
24		Brigham Young	MWC	3.5433	0.9998	28.0
25		Southern California	P10	3.5125	0.9998	31.8
26	X	Kent St.	MAC	3.2408	0.9994	37.9
27		Miami FL	ACC	3.0165	0.9987	26.0
28		St. Mary's	WCC	3.0153	0.9987	31.7
29	X	Gonzaga	WCC	2.9793	0.9986	30.1
30	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	2.8799	0.9980	27.7
31		Oklahoma	B12	2.7979	0.9974	26.5
32		Purdue	B10	2.5260	0.9942	39.3
33		Arkansas	SEC	2.5025	0.9938	30.5
34		Pittsburgh	BE	2.1775	0.9853	30.4
35	X	South Alabama	SB	2.0995	0.9821	41.0
36		West Virginia	BE	1.7461	0.9596	34.4
37		Southern Illinois	MVC	1.6831	0.9538	43.1
38		Baylor	B12	1.5276	0.9367	35.9
39		Texas A&M	B12	1.2915	0.9017	35.7
40		Mississippi St.	SEC	1.1169	0.8680	36.0
41	X	Davidson	SC	1.1019	0.8647	53.8
42		Kansas St.	B12	1.0526	0.8537	35.2
43		Massachusetts	A10	1.0311	0.8488	46.3
44	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	1.0182	0.8457	53.0
45		Illinois St.	MVC	0.8502	0.8024	49.6
46		Saint Joseph's	A10	0.7209	0.7645	47.3
47		Ohio St.	B10	0.5787	0.7186	44.8
48		Dayton	A10	0.1704	0.5676	43.4
49		Mississippi	SEC	0.1053	0.5419	47.7
50		Kentucky	SEC	0.0513	0.5205	48.0
51		UAB	CUSA	0.0191	0.5076	59.4
52		Syracuse	BE	-0.1329	0.4471	38.8
53		Florida	SEC	-0.2029	0.4196	48.7
54		Creighton	MVC	-0.3147	0.3765	53.4
55		New Mexico	MWC	-0.4181	0.3379	57.1
56	X	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-0.4315	0.3331	63.7
57		Texas Tech	B12	-0.4351	0.3318	48.9
58		Houston	CUSA	-0.5709	0.2840	55.6
59		Maryland	ACC	-0.6008	0.2740	49.5
60		Western Kentucky	SB	-0.9834	0.1627	59.4
61		Virginia Tech	ACC	-1.0213	0.1536	66.4
62		George Mason	CAA	-1.1525	0.1246	76.0
63		Wright St.	Horz	-1.2222	0.1108	70.2
64		Oral Roberts	Sum	-1.3290	0.0919	72.2
65		Arizona St.	P10	-1.4290	0.0765	66.2
66		Oregon	P10	-1.5083	0.0657	61.0
67		Villanova	BE	-1.5804	0.0570	64.0
68		California	P10	-1.7104	0.0436	61.4
69		Rhode Island	A10	-1.7109	0.0436	57.4
70		Wake Forest	ACC	-1.7287	0.0419	69.7
71		Ohio	MAC	-1.7401	0.0409	72.7
72	X	IUPUI	Sum	-2.0069	0.0224	92.3
73		Florida St.	ACC	-2.0964	0.0180	63.3
74		Cincinnati	BE	-2.2691	0.0116	77.0
75		North Carolina St.	ACC	-2.2907	0.0110	72.5
76		Oklahoma St.	B12	-2.5514	0.0054	67.9
77	X	Cornell	Ivy	-2.6170	0.0044	91.5
78		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-2.6414	0.0041	93.5
79		Akron	MAC	-2.9212	0.0017	87.6
80		San Diego St.	MWC	-3.1659	0.0008	75.8
81		Seton Hall	BE	-3.1756	0.0007	69.3
82		Boise St.	WAC	-3.3943	0.0003	102.5
83	X	Siena	MAAC	-3.4384	0.0003	89.0
84		Cleveland St.	Horz	-3.4501	0.0003	87.9
85		Nebraska	B12	-3.5016	0.0002	88.7
86		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-3.5552	0.0002	95.3
87		Charlotte	A10	-3.6399	0.0001	91.7
88		Georgia Tech	ACC	-3.7693	0.0001	85.8
89		Bradley	MVC	-3.7701	0.0001	83.6
90		Utah St.	WAC	-3.7879	0.0001	103.4
91		Temple	A10	-4.0013	0.0000	82.3
92	X	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-4.0070	0.0000	94.5
93	X	Belmont	ASun	-4.2058	0.0000	116.3
94		Utah	MWC	-4.2269	0.0000	82.3
95		Missouri	B12	-4.4033	0.0000	79.6
96	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-4.6391	0.0000	120.4
97		Duquesne	A10	-4.7180	0.0000	93.8
98		Nevada	WAC	-4.7734	0.0000	98.6
99		Old Dominion	CAA	-4.7948	0.0000	109.7
100	X	MD Baltimore County	AE	-4.8487	0.0000	112.8
101		Boston College	ACC	-4.9865	0.0000	85.6
102		Miami OH	MAC	-5.0574	0.0000	91.2
103		American	Pat	-5.1672	0.0000	119.3
104		Minnesota	B10	-5.1884	0.0000	93.9
105		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-5.2025	0.0000	90.3
106		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-5.2623	0.0000	116.8
107		Richmond	A10	-5.3831	0.0000	118.8
108		Georgia Southern	SC	-5.6759	0.0000	116.7
109		Valparaiso	Horz	-5.7434	0.0000	115.8
110		Wagner	NEC	-5.7790	0.0000	130.7
111	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-5.8474	0.0000	116.7
112		Niagara	MAAC	-5.8925	0.0000	122.1
113		Providence	BE	-5.9757	0.0000	93.2
114	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-6.0464	0.0000	132.4
115		Indiana St.	MVC	-6.0639	0.0000	112.5
116	X	Winthrop	BSth	-6.1178	0.0000	124.2
117		Marshall	CUSA	-6.5069	0.0000	111.8
118		Washington	P10	-6.6038	0.0000	96.0
119		Rider	MAAC	-6.6655	0.0000	133.1
120	X	Portland St.	BSky	-6.6732	0.0000	145.7
121		Western Michigan	MAC	-6.7348	0.0000	142.7
122		San Diego	WCC	-6.8104	0.0000	111.8
123		North Texas	SB	-6.8244	0.0000	139.7
124		Middle Tennessee	SB	-6.9086	0.0000	126.5
125		Georgia	SEC	-6.9168	0.0000	107.9
126	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-6.9419	0.0000	124.4
127		South Carolina	SEC	-7.0005	0.0000	102.6
128		Virginia	ACC	-7.1757	0.0000	101.2
129		St. Louis	A10	-7.3319	0.0000	108.5
130		Pacific	BW	-7.4121	0.0000	143.7
131		Chattanooga	SC	-7.4434	0.0000	124.4
132		Lamar	Slnd	-7.6047	0.0000	143.1
133		NC Wilmington	CAA	-7.6310	0.0000	144.7
134		Northern Iowa	MVC	-7.6742	0.0000	133.6
135	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-7.7140	0.0000	151.8
136		Alabama	SEC	-7.9772	0.0000	102.1
137		Brown	Ivy	-8.0078	0.0000	137.6
138		Northern Arizona	BSky	-8.0278	0.0000	153.5
139		Illinois	B10	-8.1544	0.0000	118.0
140		Missouri St.	MVC	-8.3497	0.0000	115.9
141		Tulsa	CUSA	-8.3510	0.0000	139.2
142		Central Florida	CUSA	-8.3979	0.0000	133.1
143		Sacred Heart	NEC	-8.5293	0.0000	165.1
144		Fordham	A10	-8.5545	0.0000	138.1
145		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-8.6040	0.0000	149.2
146		Loyola MD	MAAC	-8.6456	0.0000	164.2
147		Appalachian St.	SC	-8.6735	0.0000	158.7
148		NC Asheville	BSth	-8.7969	0.0000	160.5
149		Marist	MAAC	-8.8035	0.0000	140.0
150		Auburn	SEC	-9.0407	0.0000	127.0
151		Hampton	MEAC	-9.0475	0.0000	160.8
152		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-9.1409	0.0000	142.4
153		Iowa St.	B12	-9.1628	0.0000	128.1
154		NC Greensboro	SC	-9.3129	0.0000	154.2
155		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-9.5208	0.0000	151.8
156		Penn St.	B10	-9.5493	0.0000	138.1
157		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-9.5560	0.0000	154.0
158		New Orleans	SB	-9.9919	0.0000	161.0
159		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-10.0408	0.0000	163.2
160		Oakland	Sum	-10.0821	0.0000	174.9
161		St. John's	BE	-10.1490	0.0000	130.1
162		Fairfield	MAAC	-10.2297	0.0000	170.7
163		Lafayette	Pat	-10.2878	0.0000	166.4
164		Tulane	CUSA	-10.4262	0.0000	151.3
165		DePaul	BE	-10.5210	0.0000	140.0
166		La Salle	A10	-10.6228	0.0000	171.8
167		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-10.8000	0.0000	167.0
168		William & Mary	CAA	-10.8927	0.0000	176.1
169		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-10.9232	0.0000	184.5
170		Murray St.	OVC	-10.9658	0.0000	186.4
171		Iowa	B10	-11.1189	0.0000	159.2
172		Jacksonville	ASun	-11.1271	0.0000	187.2
173		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-11.1379	0.0000	172.8
174		Michigan	B10	-11.1622	0.0000	157.2
175		UC Irvine	BW	-11.5160	0.0000	178.1
176		Air Force	MWC	-11.6645	0.0000	163.8
177		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-11.7068	0.0000	186.3
178		Quinnipiac	NEC	-11.8554	0.0000	199.4
179		Delaware	CAA	-11.8670	0.0000	180.9
180		Yale	Ivy	-12.0038	0.0000	185.9
181		Hartford	AE	-12.1157	0.0000	196.5
182		Bucknell	Pat	-12.1380	0.0000	193.0
183		Central Connecticut	NEC	-12.2276	0.0000	200.1
184		Santa Clara	WCC	-12.3010	0.0000	181.0
185		Navy	Pat	-12.4525	0.0000	206.0
186		Columbia	Ivy	-12.4740	0.0000	196.2
187		South Florida	BE	-12.5012	0.0000	157.4
188		Weber St.	BSky	-12.5319	0.0000	202.7
189		Colorado	B12	-12.5607	0.0000	160.2
190		Gardner Webb	ASun	-12.6037	0.0000	209.3
191		Texas Christian	MWC	-12.6203	0.0000	176.5
192		George Washington	A10	-12.6446	0.0000	174.1
193		San Jose St.	WAC	-13.0739	0.0000	202.6
194		Colgate	Pat	-13.0895	0.0000	204.9
195		Central Michigan	MAC	-13.2029	0.0000	199.3
196		Long Island	NEC	-13.2166	0.0000	204.9
197		Montana St.	BSky	-13.3394	0.0000	206.1
198		Vermont	AE	-13.4244	0.0000	212.2
199		Bowling Green	MAC	-13.4518	0.0000	193.4
200		Louisiana St.	SEC	-13.4588	0.0000	167.1
201		Northeastern	CAA	-13.5222	0.0000	191.8
202		Wofford	SC	-13.5329	0.0000	203.0
203		James Madison	CAA	-13.5864	0.0000	198.1
204		Fresno St.	WAC	-13.6193	0.0000	190.2
205		Albany	AE	-13.7235	0.0000	220.3
206	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-13.7633	0.0000	235.0
207		Wichita St.	MVC	-13.8323	0.0000	175.6
208		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-14.0557	0.0000	215.7
209		Iona	MAAC	-14.1886	0.0000	217.0
210		Toledo	MAC	-14.2326	0.0000	203.7
211		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-14.3488	0.0000	211.0
212		Morehead St.	OVC	-14.3588	0.0000	229.2
213		Hawaii	WAC	-14.4128	0.0000	220.0
214		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-14.4138	0.0000	211.6
215		College of Charleston	SC	-14.5107	0.0000	206.3
216		Montana	BSky	-14.6907	0.0000	224.2
217		Binghamton	AE	-14.7737	0.0000	232.9
218		Delaware St.	MEAC	-14.8277	0.0000	225.2
219		Rutgers	BE	-14.8451	0.0000	189.5
220		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-14.9341	0.0000	232.8
221		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-14.9520	0.0000	226.5
222		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-14.9978	0.0000	226.8
223		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-15.1042	0.0000	235.6
224		Hofstra	CAA	-15.1186	0.0000	219.3
225		Cal Poly	BW	-15.2115	0.0000	213.8
226		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-15.2938	0.0000	231.8
227		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-15.4973	0.0000	220.7
228		Northwestern	B10	-15.5269	0.0000	192.5
229		North Dakota St.	Sum	-15.5871	0.0000	226.1
230		Lipscomb	ASun	-15.6201	0.0000	242.5
231		Youngstown St.	Horz	-15.6789	0.0000	212.9
232		Towson	CAA	-15.6826	0.0000	225.1
233		Lehigh	Pat	-15.8914	0.0000	239.3
234		Chicago St.	ind	-15.9930	0.0000	234.9
235		Pepperdine	WCC	-16.2059	0.0000	216.3
236		Wyoming	MWC	-16.3068	0.0000	207.7
237		Boston University	AE	-16.5146	0.0000	246.3
238		Army	Pat	-16.5430	0.0000	246.2
239		Drexel	CAA	-16.6357	0.0000	219.2
240		Florida Atlantic	SB	-16.6711	0.0000	228.4
241		Denver	SB	-16.9245	0.0000	248.1
242		Troy	SB	-16.9550	0.0000	225.3
243		Elon	SC	-16.9592	0.0000	242.5
244		Florida International	SB	-17.0107	0.0000	224.8
245		Tennessee St.	OVC	-17.0631	0.0000	257.6
246		East Carolina	CUSA	-17.0792	0.0000	245.8
247		Utah Valley St.	ind	-17.0835	0.0000	266.1
248		Stetson	ASun	-17.2235	0.0000	257.3
249		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-17.5133	0.0000	258.5
250		Evansville	MVC	-17.5590	0.0000	225.1
251		High Point	BSth	-17.6226	0.0000	257.5
252		Texas St.	Slnd	-17.7776	0.0000	258.9
253		Southern Utah	Sum	-17.8141	0.0000	242.7
254		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-17.8705	0.0000	285.2
255		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-17.8838	0.0000	245.1
256		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-18.0820	0.0000	271.6
257		Samford	OVC	-18.0875	0.0000	272.4
258		Manhattan	MAAC	-18.1453	0.0000	267.9
259		Savannah St.	ind	-18.2309	0.0000	268.1
260		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-18.4053	0.0000	244.1
261		McNeese St.	Slnd	-18.4357	0.0000	263.6
262		Liberty	BSth	-18.5538	0.0000	269.1
263		Jackson St.	SWAC	-18.7272	0.0000	274.4
264		Western Illinois	Sum	-18.8216	0.0000	259.8
265		Texas Pan American	ind	-18.8679	0.0000	297.1
266		Idaho St.	BSky	-18.9856	0.0000	277.8
267		Florida A&M	MEAC	-19.1989	0.0000	272.6
268		Northern Illinois	MAC	-19.2478	0.0000	258.3
269		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-19.3572	0.0000	272.1
270		Northern Colorado	BSky	-19.3689	0.0000	285.4
271		Eastern Washington	BSky	-19.4819	0.0000	277.2
272		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-19.6327	0.0000	291.2
273		St. Bonaventure	A10	-19.7003	0.0000	244.9
274		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-19.7560	0.0000	258.1
275		Detroit	Horz	-19.7598	0.0000	267.3
276		Harvard	Ivy	-19.7985	0.0000	280.1
277		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-19.8109	0.0000	268.6
278		San Francisco	WCC	-19.8940	0.0000	263.4
279		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-19.9252	0.0000	288.8
280		Buffalo	MAC	-19.9509	0.0000	252.1
281		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-19.9692	0.0000	288.3
282		Georgia St.	CAA	-19.9760	0.0000	273.1
283		Arkansas St.	SB	-20.0026	0.0000	280.5
284		Coppin St.	MEAC	-20.1744	0.0000	280.0
285		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-20.1779	0.0000	283.4
286		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-20.2796	0.0000	280.1
287		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-20.5870	0.0000	302.3
288		Oregon St.	P10	-20.6356	0.0000	249.1
289		Western Carolina	SC	-20.6576	0.0000	281.5
290		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-20.7696	0.0000	297.7
291		Ball St.	MAC	-20.8220	0.0000	273.0
292		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-20.8963	0.0000	301.3
293		Mercer	ASun	-20.9508	0.0000	312.3
294		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-21.0675	0.0000	298.6
295		Colorado St.	MWC	-21.1431	0.0000	255.6
296		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-21.2124	0.0000	286.1
297		Radford	BSth	-21.3167	0.0000	309.0
298		UC Riverside	BW	-21.3458	0.0000	277.3
299		Campbell	ASun	-21.5346	0.0000	312.9
300		New Hampshire	AE	-21.5587	0.0000	308.1
301		UC Davis	BW	-21.6494	0.0000	294.9
302		Centenary	Sum	-21.6830	0.0000	296.1
303		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-21.7069	0.0000	317.2
304		St. Francis NY	NEC	-21.7237	0.0000	307.2
305		Monmouth	NEC	-21.8111	0.0000	307.1
306		Furman	SC	-21.8267	0.0000	298.7
307		St. Peter's	MAAC	-21.9886	0.0000	299.0
308		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-22.0365	0.0000	320.0
309		Rice	CUSA	-22.2311	0.0000	284.3
310		Dartmouth	Ivy	-22.4250	0.0000	311.8
311		St. Francis PA	NEC	-22.4262	0.0000	314.7
312		Southern	SWAC	-22.4412	0.0000	316.8
313		Princeton	Ivy	-22.4676	0.0000	312.8
314		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-22.4962	0.0000	317.2
315		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-22.6903	0.0000	307.4
316		Longwood	ind	-22.8217	0.0000	326.4
317		North Carolina Central	ind	-22.8945	0.0000	307.4
318		Texas Southern	SWAC	-23.0677	0.0000	316.1
319		Long Beach St.	BW	-23.0845	0.0000	309.3
320		Portland	WCC	-23.0928	0.0000	297.8
321		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-23.1771	0.0000	330.5
322		Idaho	WAC	-23.2566	0.0000	313.6
323		Charleston Southern	BSth	-23.2717	0.0000	326.6
324		South Dakota St.	Sum	-23.3082	0.0000	315.0
325		Grambling	SWAC	-23.4998	0.0000	332.2
326		Maine	AE	-23.6355	0.0000	328.5
327		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.6429	0.0000	337.1
328		Canisius	MAAC	-23.7205	0.0000	317.5
329		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-23.7988	0.0000	329.1
330		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-23.9089	0.0000	338.3
331		Stony Brook	AE	-23.9285	0.0000	327.9
332		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-24.1053	0.0000	303.0
333		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-24.2446	0.0000	339.0
334		Sacramento St.	BSky	-24.2652	0.0000	332.5
335		Howard	MEAC	-24.4585	0.0000	330.0
336		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-24.4767	0.0000	341.0
337		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-24.7363	0.0000	324.9
338		Presbyterian	ind	-24.9763	0.0000	330.9
339		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-25.4207	0.0000	336.3
340		The Citadel	SC	-25.5639	0.0000	331.7
341		North Florida	ASun	-25.5771	0.0000	339.1

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com