Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Dec 26, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1		North Carolina	ACC	8.9019	1.0000	1.7
2	X	Duke	ACC	8.5041	1.0000	2.6
3	X	Kansas	B12	8.2179	1.0000	4.6
4	X	West Virginia	BE	8.1836	1.0000	6.6
5	X	Memphis	CUSA	6.7743	1.0000	9.4
6	X	Tennessee	SEC	6.6757	1.0000	5.6
7		Marquette	BE	6.3923	1.0000	12.7
8		Arizona	P10	5.9973	1.0000	7.2
9		Pittsburgh	BE	5.7536	1.0000	11.9
10		Mississippi	SEC	5.6475	1.0000	14.2
11		Texas	B12	5.6373	1.0000	9.4
12		Michigan St.	B10	5.4692	1.0000	12.6
13		Texas A&M	B12	5.3249	1.0000	15.4
14	X	UCLA	P10	5.1371	1.0000	17.7
15	X	Xavier	A10	4.8462	1.0000	18.3
16		Rhode Island	A10	4.8376	1.0000	18.3
17		Indiana	B10	4.5860	1.0000	21.2
18		Miami FL	ACC	4.3390	1.0000	16.8
19	X	Wisconsin	B10	3.9561	1.0000	24.3
20		Washington St.	P10	3.7409	0.9999	24.5
21		Stanford	P10	3.7297	0.9999	24.0
22	X	Butler	Horz	3.4330	0.9997	36.3
23		Southern California	P10	3.3458	0.9996	30.8
24		Vanderbilt	SEC	3.2016	0.9993	21.9
25		Clemson	ACC	3.1893	0.9993	27.0
26		St. Mary's	WCC	3.0365	0.9988	33.6
27		Baylor	B12	3.0342	0.9988	28.1
28		Georgetown	BE	2.9115	0.9982	34.5
29		Ohio St.	B10	2.7302	0.9968	29.0
30	X	Gonzaga	WCC	2.5851	0.9951	34.3
31		Oklahoma	B12	2.5711	0.9949	29.6
32	X	Drake	MVC	2.3016	0.9893	39.1
33		Arkansas	SEC	2.0901	0.9817	34.4
34		Providence	BE	1.7314	0.9583	38.0
35		Florida St.	ACC	1.5327	0.9373	33.7
36		Syracuse	BE	1.4746	0.9298	30.4
37		New Mexico	MWC	1.3418	0.9102	47.4
38		Duquesne	A10	1.2514	0.8946	45.5
39		Oregon	P10	1.2395	0.8924	40.0
40		Dayton	A10	1.1956	0.8841	39.5
41		Notre Dame	BE	1.0418	0.8512	45.7
42		Creighton	MVC	0.9266	0.8229	47.9
43		Brigham Young	MWC	0.7778	0.7817	50.0
44		Minnesota	B10	0.7693	0.7792	43.2
45		Massachusetts	A10	0.5415	0.7059	47.8
46		Missouri	B12	0.5096	0.6948	43.6
47		Connecticut	BE	0.4863	0.6866	40.9
48	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.4817	0.6850	39.5
49	X	Miami OH	MAC	0.1278	0.5508	57.5
50	X	Holy Cross	Pat	0.0115	0.5046	54.7
51		George Mason	CAA	-0.0325	0.4870	62.2
52		California	P10	-0.0873	0.4652	47.3
53	X	South Alabama	SB	-0.1620	0.4357	60.9
54		Virginia	ACC	-0.3345	0.3690	52.0
55		Florida	SEC	-0.4388	0.3304	56.3
56		Villanova	BE	-0.6855	0.2465	56.4
57	X	Texas Arlington	Slnd	-0.6895	0.2453	71.2
58		Illinois	B10	-0.8251	0.2047	56.8
59		Valparaiso	Horz	-0.8780	0.1900	65.5
60		Louisville	BE	-0.9017	0.1836	53.8
61	X	Siena	MAAC	-0.9503	0.1710	72.2
62		Houston	CUSA	-1.0541	0.1459	63.9
63		UAB	CUSA	-1.5504	0.0605	64.9
64	X	Winthrop	BSth	-1.6102	0.0537	83.0
65	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-1.6654	0.0479	79.1
66		Kent St.	MAC	-1.6846	0.0460	75.8
67		Boston College	ACC	-1.7316	0.0417	51.7
68	X	UC Santa Barbara	BW	-1.7348	0.0414	79.8
69		Utah	MWC	-2.0293	0.0212	68.9
70		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-2.2483	0.0123	80.5
71		Western Kentucky	SB	-2.3104	0.0104	85.1
72		Georgia Tech	ACC	-2.4306	0.0075	71.1
73		San Diego St.	MWC	-2.4467	0.0072	64.3
74	X	IUPUI	Sum	-2.5060	0.0061	95.1
75		South Carolina	SEC	-2.5318	0.0057	67.8
76		Illinois St.	MVC	-2.5472	0.0054	77.1
77		Mississippi St.	SEC	-2.6295	0.0043	66.7
78		Texas Tech	B12	-2.7116	0.0033	69.4
79		James Madison	CAA	-2.8491	0.0022	90.6
80		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-2.8690	0.0021	89.5
81	X	Davidson	SC	-2.9211	0.0017	100.2
82		Ohio	MAC	-2.9961	0.0014	78.5
83		North Texas	SB	-3.0217	0.0013	90.7
84		Nebraska	B12	-3.0378	0.0012	84.2
85		Nevada	WAC	-3.2817	0.0005	88.1
86		Oral Roberts	Sum	-3.2856	0.0005	98.7
87		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-3.4240	0.0003	79.7
88		Arizona St.	P10	-3.4323	0.0003	73.4
89		Georgia Southern	SC	-3.4776	0.0003	98.7
90		Southern Illinois	MVC	-3.5684	0.0002	86.3
91		Wichita St.	MVC	-3.8853	0.0001	87.7
92		Kansas St.	B12	-3.8923	0.0000	75.0
93		Alabama	SEC	-3.9007	0.0000	75.8
94		Cleveland St.	Horz	-4.1298	0.0000	93.6
95		South Florida	BE	-4.1690	0.0000	91.9
96	X	MD Baltimore County	AE	-4.2086	0.0000	107.2
97		Temple	A10	-4.2461	0.0000	89.3
98		North Carolina St.	ACC	-4.5066	0.0000	91.3
99		Niagara	MAAC	-4.6075	0.0000	111.0
100		Akron	MAC	-4.6289	0.0000	102.0
101		Wright St.	Horz	-4.7950	0.0000	106.4
102		Kentucky	SEC	-5.0078	0.0000	90.4
103	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-5.0275	0.0000	121.0
104		Saint Joseph's	A10	-5.0349	0.0000	87.4
105		Hampton	MEAC	-5.1675	0.0000	114.4
106		Seton Hall	BE	-5.3642	0.0000	90.4
107		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-5.3724	0.0000	105.0
108		Oklahoma St.	B12	-5.4517	0.0000	90.3
109		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-5.4834	0.0000	121.4
110		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-5.6720	0.0000	105.5
111		Charlotte	A10	-5.7403	0.0000	112.2
112		Virginia Tech	ACC	-5.9526	0.0000	101.1
113	X	Brown	Ivy	-6.0145	0.0000	121.3
114		Pacific	BW	-6.0634	0.0000	125.1
115		Tulane	CUSA	-6.3755	0.0000	116.6
116		Boise St.	WAC	-6.3816	0.0000	129.7
117	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-6.4225	0.0000	120.6
118		Wake Forest	ACC	-6.6023	0.0000	115.4
119		Central Florida	CUSA	-6.7183	0.0000	119.6
120		Washington	P10	-6.7919	0.0000	104.7
121		Louisiana St.	SEC	-6.8646	0.0000	105.0
122		Bradley	MVC	-7.1702	0.0000	111.2
123		Chattanooga	SC	-7.2223	0.0000	132.2
124		Maryland	ACC	-7.2327	0.0000	100.2
125		Old Dominion	CAA	-7.2339	0.0000	120.6
126		Lafayette	Pat	-7.4904	0.0000	138.4
127		Marist	MAAC	-7.5179	0.0000	130.8
128		Penn St.	B10	-7.7342	0.0000	121.2
129		St. John's	BE	-7.9534	0.0000	110.9
130		Georgia	SEC	-8.0342	0.0000	120.7
131		Fresno St.	WAC	-8.0417	0.0000	136.4
132	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-8.2046	0.0000	158.0
133		Marshall	CUSA	-8.3239	0.0000	132.9
134		Purdue	B10	-8.3777	0.0000	133.6
135		Long Island	NEC	-8.4212	0.0000	151.8
136		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-8.4998	0.0000	145.6
137		Portland St.	BSky	-8.5883	0.0000	159.4
138		Santa Clara	WCC	-8.6705	0.0000	141.3
139		Northern Arizona	BSky	-8.7433	0.0000	161.0
140		Tulsa	CUSA	-8.8473	0.0000	143.3
141		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-8.9501	0.0000	134.3
142		Northeastern	CAA	-9.0650	0.0000	144.8
143		Northern Iowa	MVC	-9.0962	0.0000	143.0
144	X	East Tennessee St.	ASun	-9.1090	0.0000	159.0
145		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-9.1476	0.0000	164.4
146		Missouri St.	MVC	-9.3944	0.0000	133.4
147	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-9.4352	0.0000	163.7
148		Rider	MAAC	-9.4604	0.0000	161.2
149		New Orleans	SB	-9.4676	0.0000	157.8
150		Utah St.	WAC	-9.4760	0.0000	159.6
151	X	Montana St.	BSky	-9.4930	0.0000	161.6
152		American	Pat	-9.5030	0.0000	156.1
153		Wagner	NEC	-9.5073	0.0000	168.9
154		Oakland	Sum	-9.5432	0.0000	164.2
155		Albany	AE	-9.7901	0.0000	173.6
156		St. Louis	A10	-9.9750	0.0000	139.0
157		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-10.0412	0.0000	164.0
158		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-10.2711	0.0000	162.7
159		Auburn	SEC	-10.3859	0.0000	139.2
160		NC Wilmington	CAA	-10.3942	0.0000	162.6
161		Central Michigan	MAC	-10.5455	0.0000	167.4
162		Troy	SB	-10.5953	0.0000	165.3
163		Appalachian St.	SC	-10.6136	0.0000	178.9
164		North Dakota St.	Sum	-10.6834	0.0000	175.4
165		College of Charleston	SC	-10.7401	0.0000	169.1
166		Montana	BSky	-10.8941	0.0000	183.2
167		Colorado	B12	-11.1345	0.0000	145.7
168		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-11.1386	0.0000	173.4
169		Yale	Ivy	-11.2987	0.0000	181.0
170		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-11.3659	0.0000	184.2
171		UC Irvine	BW	-11.3695	0.0000	172.2
172		NC Asheville	BSth	-11.4551	0.0000	184.9
173		Western Michigan	MAC	-11.5881	0.0000	182.6
174		Belmont	ASun	-11.6386	0.0000	201.8
175		NC Greensboro	SC	-11.6545	0.0000	188.9
176		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-11.7441	0.0000	196.1
177		Iowa St.	B12	-11.7618	0.0000	144.5
178		Murray St.	OVC	-11.8713	0.0000	198.6
179		San Diego	WCC	-11.9477	0.0000	160.8
180		Michigan	B10	-11.9631	0.0000	152.1
181		Texas Christian	MWC	-11.9740	0.0000	160.8
182		Drexel	CAA	-12.1254	0.0000	176.6
183		McNeese St.	Slnd	-12.2157	0.0000	195.6
184		DePaul	BE	-12.2548	0.0000	150.5
185		Bucknell	Pat	-12.3129	0.0000	189.2
186		Cornell	Ivy	-12.3563	0.0000	201.0
187		Iona	MAAC	-12.3854	0.0000	193.8
188		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-12.4783	0.0000	179.4
189	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-12.6524	0.0000	220.6
190		Colorado St.	MWC	-12.6782	0.0000	162.9
191		Toledo	MAC	-12.6882	0.0000	185.6
192		Pepperdine	WCC	-12.9804	0.0000	184.4
193		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-13.0829	0.0000	200.2
194		Fordham	A10	-13.2192	0.0000	176.0
195		Manhattan	MAAC	-13.2641	0.0000	209.2
196		Delaware	CAA	-13.3054	0.0000	198.8
197		Wofford	SC	-13.3866	0.0000	199.5
198		Northwestern	B10	-13.3901	0.0000	175.4
199		Gardner Webb	ASun	-13.4084	0.0000	212.7
200		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-13.8205	0.0000	206.2
201		Colgate	Pat	-13.8769	0.0000	207.9
202		Wyoming	MWC	-13.9521	0.0000	178.3
203		Richmond	A10	-13.9790	0.0000	194.2
204		Sacred Heart	NEC	-14.0777	0.0000	219.6
205		East Carolina	CUSA	-14.0778	0.0000	206.0
206		New Hampshire	AE	-14.1078	0.0000	221.1
207		Columbia	Ivy	-14.3398	0.0000	222.0
208		Denver	SB	-14.6253	0.0000	222.7
209		George Washington	A10	-14.6382	0.0000	199.6
210		Indiana St.	MVC	-14.6401	0.0000	186.3
211		Buffalo	MAC	-14.8346	0.0000	208.2
212		Tennessee St.	OVC	-15.2085	0.0000	235.6
213		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-15.2471	0.0000	233.6
214		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-15.2591	0.0000	243.0
215		Air Force	MWC	-15.2806	0.0000	199.4
216		Cincinnati	BE	-15.2825	0.0000	183.3
217		Liberty	BSth	-15.2984	0.0000	230.7
218		Central Connecticut	NEC	-15.3647	0.0000	234.8
219		Cal Poly	BW	-15.3675	0.0000	220.4
220		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-15.5156	0.0000	228.7
221		Harvard	Ivy	-15.5410	0.0000	230.7
222		Rutgers	BE	-15.5625	0.0000	184.5
223		Oregon St.	P10	-15.5640	0.0000	195.4
224		Jacksonville	ASun	-15.6543	0.0000	239.1
225		Detroit	Horz	-15.6796	0.0000	218.8
226		Loyola MD	MAAC	-15.6984	0.0000	225.6
227		Hofstra	CAA	-15.7335	0.0000	224.2
228		St. Bonaventure	A10	-15.7351	0.0000	210.4
229		Quinnipiac	NEC	-15.7408	0.0000	241.5
230		La Salle	A10	-15.9572	0.0000	215.4
231		Utah Valley St.	ind	-16.0559	0.0000	258.3
232		Middle Tennessee	SB	-16.2097	0.0000	225.5
233		San Francisco	WCC	-16.2109	0.0000	217.6
234		Mercer	ASun	-16.3021	0.0000	257.8
235		Weber St.	BSky	-16.3280	0.0000	239.6
236		Youngstown St.	Horz	-16.4271	0.0000	214.5
237		Elon	SC	-16.4440	0.0000	240.4
238		Iowa	B10	-16.5419	0.0000	214.9
239		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-16.5552	0.0000	243.4
240		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-16.5729	0.0000	214.9
241		Lehigh	Pat	-16.5783	0.0000	245.3
242		Northern Colorado	BSky	-16.6187	0.0000	252.8
243		William & Mary	CAA	-16.6240	0.0000	234.4
244		Lipscomb	ASun	-16.6724	0.0000	259.6
245		Portland	WCC	-16.7652	0.0000	230.4
246		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-16.9417	0.0000	240.0
247		Boston University	AE	-17.0033	0.0000	248.8
248		Bowling Green	MAC	-17.0204	0.0000	233.1
249		Evansville	MVC	-17.0221	0.0000	213.9
250		High Point	BSth	-17.0344	0.0000	249.6
251		St. Peter's	MAAC	-17.0708	0.0000	245.1
252		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-17.1430	0.0000	259.8
253		Vermont	AE	-17.1602	0.0000	252.4
254		Eastern Washington	BSky	-17.3309	0.0000	253.8
255		Centenary	Sum	-17.3650	0.0000	249.6
256		St. Francis PA	NEC	-17.4184	0.0000	261.2
257		Hartford	AE	-17.5317	0.0000	244.9
258		South Dakota St.	Sum	-17.7584	0.0000	256.3
259		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-17.7968	0.0000	267.7
260		Fairfield	MAAC	-17.8856	0.0000	249.9
261		Hawaii	WAC	-17.9878	0.0000	255.3
262		St. Francis NY	NEC	-18.0271	0.0000	265.2
263		Southern Utah	Sum	-18.1133	0.0000	256.7
264		Delaware St.	MEAC	-18.1375	0.0000	264.0
265		Princeton	Ivy	-18.1585	0.0000	269.2
266		Arkansas St.	SB	-18.1800	0.0000	259.1
267		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-18.1992	0.0000	279.5
268		Lamar	Slnd	-18.4239	0.0000	263.2
269		UC Davis	BW	-18.5568	0.0000	267.3
270		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-18.5698	0.0000	271.2
271		Florida Atlantic	SB	-18.6081	0.0000	251.7
272		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-18.6941	0.0000	250.9
273		Navy	Pat	-18.7084	0.0000	270.9
274		Chicago St.	ind	-18.7197	0.0000	262.4
275		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-18.7846	0.0000	274.6
276		Towson	CAA	-18.8051	0.0000	262.4
277		Army	Pat	-18.8770	0.0000	266.1
278		San Jose St.	WAC	-18.9421	0.0000	274.3
279		Samford	OVC	-18.9844	0.0000	282.7
280		Texas St.	Slnd	-18.9906	0.0000	266.4
281		Southern	SWAC	-19.0265	0.0000	279.3
282		Stetson	ASun	-19.0988	0.0000	277.4
283		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-19.1582	0.0000	278.3
284		Long Beach St.	BW	-19.2886	0.0000	271.5
285		Binghamton	AE	-19.5476	0.0000	290.2
286		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-19.7964	0.0000	279.6
287		Morehead St.	OVC	-19.9446	0.0000	287.7
288		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-20.2125	0.0000	289.6
289		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-20.2744	0.0000	296.4
290		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-20.2838	0.0000	296.9
291		Dartmouth	Ivy	-20.3504	0.0000	293.0
292		Coppin St.	MEAC	-20.4633	0.0000	281.0
293		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-20.5923	0.0000	309.0
294		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-20.9257	0.0000	310.4
295		Georgia St.	CAA	-20.9268	0.0000	276.3
296		Campbell	ASun	-20.9673	0.0000	307.1
297		Florida International	SB	-21.1541	0.0000	278.6
298		Stony Brook	AE	-21.1972	0.0000	304.0
299		Texas Southern	SWAC	-21.2007	0.0000	304.4
300		UC Riverside	BW	-21.3465	0.0000	278.5
301		Charleston Southern	BSth	-21.3583	0.0000	302.5
302		Monmouth	NEC	-21.4175	0.0000	303.5
303		Savannah St.	ind	-21.5394	0.0000	308.6
304		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-21.5563	0.0000	311.2
305		Rice	CUSA	-21.6686	0.0000	281.6
306		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-21.7451	0.0000	281.7
307		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-21.7560	0.0000	322.2
308		Texas Pan American	ind	-21.9643	0.0000	322.7
309		Radford	BSth	-22.0559	0.0000	306.0
310		Jackson St.	SWAC	-22.0670	0.0000	308.4
311		Western Carolina	SC	-22.1659	0.0000	302.0
312		Maine	AE	-22.1819	0.0000	306.9
313		Idaho	WAC	-22.2108	0.0000	305.5
314		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-22.2132	0.0000	292.8
315		Grambling	SWAC	-22.3710	0.0000	322.6
316		Western Illinois	Sum	-22.4613	0.0000	299.7
317		Sacramento St.	BSky	-22.4679	0.0000	313.5
318		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-22.4742	0.0000	328.2
319		Furman	SC	-22.5216	0.0000	309.7
320		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-22.5858	0.0000	313.0
321		Howard	MEAC	-22.9988	0.0000	311.2
322		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-23.0089	0.0000	290.5
323		Canisius	MAAC	-23.0643	0.0000	314.5
324		Longwood	ind	-23.0889	0.0000	327.1
325		Ball St.	MAC	-23.2924	0.0000	304.8
326		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-23.4327	0.0000	331.5
327		The Citadel	SC	-23.4631	0.0000	311.6
328		North Carolina Central	ind	-23.5586	0.0000	322.6
329		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-23.6758	0.0000	311.1
330		Idaho St.	BSky	-23.7440	0.0000	323.3
331		Northern Illinois	MAC	-23.7632	0.0000	312.0
332		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-23.8091	0.0000	340.7
333		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-23.8576	0.0000	320.4
334		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-24.0407	0.0000	337.8
335		Presbyterian	ind	-24.0517	0.0000	328.2
336		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-24.0884	0.0000	331.2
337		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-24.1634	0.0000	337.0
338		Florida A&M	MEAC	-24.2994	0.0000	325.3
339		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-24.5753	0.0000	338.0
340		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-24.6210	0.0000	337.4
341		North Florida	ASun	-24.9316	0.0000	338.4

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com