Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Nov 24, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	8.9873	1.0000	1.7
2		Duke	ACC	8.3747	1.0000	2.5
3	X	UCLA	P10	7.1777	1.0000	6.4
4	X	Memphis	CUSA	6.5186	1.0000	10.2
5	X	Kansas	B12	6.3228	1.0000	10.0
6		Texas	B12	6.0531	1.0000	6.5
7	X	Louisville	BE	6.0026	1.0000	11.6
8	X	Southern Illinois	MVC	5.7336	1.0000	11.0
9	X	Wisconsin	B10	5.4475	1.0000	17.0
10	X	Xavier	A10	5.3674	1.0000	14.3
11		Tennessee	SEC	5.3197	1.0000	11.9
12		Texas A&M	B12	5.3191	1.0000	13.0
13	X	Florida	SEC	4.7199	1.0000	18.2
14	X	Gonzaga	WCC	4.5867	1.0000	21.5
15		Pittsburgh	BE	4.1862	1.0000	21.4
16		Clemson	ACC	4.0504	1.0000	22.6
17	X	Brigham Young	MWC	3.9392	1.0000	23.5
18	X	Butler	Horz	3.8969	1.0000	28.5
19		Stanford	P10	3.7047	0.9999	24.8
20		Indiana	B10	3.6586	0.9999	25.1
21		Virginia	ACC	3.6030	0.9998	22.6
22		Kentucky	SEC	3.4023	0.9997	25.2
23		Michigan St.	B10	3.3917	0.9997	25.5
24		West Virginia	BE	3.0260	0.9988	32.6
25		Oregon	P10	3.0246	0.9988	28.1
26		Illinois	B10	2.8594	0.9979	27.1
27		Villanova	BE	2.7746	0.9972	30.3
28		Missouri	B12	2.5500	0.9946	31.1
29		Marquette	BE	2.2533	0.9879	33.8
30		Georgetown	BE	2.0399	0.9793	36.3
31		Oklahoma	B12	1.9492	0.9744	34.7
32		Washington St.	P10	1.8905	0.9707	37.3
33		Syracuse	BE	1.8353	0.9668	29.8
34		Vanderbilt	SEC	1.8185	0.9655	34.1
35		Ohio St.	B10	1.7925	0.9635	39.2
36		Miami FL	ACC	1.3487	0.9113	32.7
37		Mississippi	SEC	1.1921	0.8834	44.6
38		Arizona	P10	1.1650	0.8780	32.9
39		Florida St.	ACC	1.1612	0.8772	41.7
40		Baylor	B12	1.0729	0.8583	42.0
41		Arkansas	SEC	0.8006	0.7883	39.2
42		Providence	BE	0.7687	0.7790	43.2
43		Creighton	MVC	0.7478	0.7727	49.5
44	X	Holy Cross	Pat	0.7368	0.7694	47.1
45		Southern California	P10	0.5876	0.7216	48.3
46		Connecticut	BE	0.5468	0.7078	41.7
47		New Mexico	MWC	0.4361	0.6686	48.9
48		Notre Dame	BE	0.2488	0.5982	48.2
49		Duquesne	A10	0.2141	0.5848	58.4
50	X	Winthrop	BSth	-0.0998	0.4603	62.4
51	X	Davidson	SC	-0.1244	0.4505	68.2
52		Western Kentucky	SB	-0.2250	0.4110	66.3
53		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-0.2669	0.3948	57.9
54		Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	-0.2875	0.3868	51.7
55		Saint Joseph's	A10	-0.2994	0.3823	51.8
56		Rhode Island	A10	-0.3806	0.3517	53.9
57	X	Miami OH	MAC	-0.7213	0.2354	66.2
58		Boston College	ACC	-0.7437	0.2285	50.7
59		Mississippi St.	SEC	-0.7519	0.2261	53.0
60	X	Nevada	WAC	-0.7524	0.2259	66.1
61	X	George Mason	CAA	-0.7527	0.2258	62.0
62		Maryland	ACC	-0.9969	0.1594	50.5
63		Houston	CUSA	-1.3685	0.0856	66.7
64		St. Mary's	WCC	-1.5958	0.0553	75.7
65		Georgia Tech	ACC	-1.6274	0.0518	66.1
66		Northern Iowa	MVC	-1.6879	0.0457	74.5
67		Massachusetts	A10	-1.7984	0.0361	60.9
68		Drexel	CAA	-1.8105	0.0351	71.8
69		North Carolina St.	ACC	-1.8250	0.0340	65.3
70		San Diego St.	MWC	-1.9092	0.0281	63.7
71		Texas Tech	B12	-2.4242	0.0077	64.7
72		Old Dominion	CAA	-2.5680	0.0051	81.2
73	X	Siena	MAAC	-2.6125	0.0045	88.8
74		Bucknell	Pat	-2.7244	0.0032	83.4
75		Missouri St.	MVC	-3.0661	0.0011	85.1
76		California	P10	-3.3711	0.0004	73.2
77	X	UC Santa Barbara	BW	-3.3850	0.0004	94.0
78		St. Louis	A10	-3.4207	0.0003	78.4
79		South Carolina	SEC	-3.5252	0.0002	74.5
80		Santa Clara	WCC	-3.5827	0.0002	91.6
81	X	Texas Arlington	Slnd	-3.5833	0.0002	96.8
82	X	South Alabama	SB	-3.6489	0.0001	92.2
83		Kansas St.	B12	-3.6504	0.0001	78.2
84		New Orleans	SB	-3.6625	0.0001	103.5
85		Kent St.	MAC	-3.7507	0.0001	97.5
86		Temple	A10	-3.8339	0.0001	86.2
87		Minnesota	B10	-3.8887	0.0001	84.3
88		Seton Hall	BE	-4.1174	0.0000	75.9
89		Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-4.2853	0.0000	100.2
90		UAB	CUSA	-4.3138	0.0000	93.4
91		Virginia Tech	ACC	-4.3418	0.0000	82.5
92		Georgia	SEC	-4.4596	0.0000	85.3
93	X	Albany	AE	-4.5256	0.0000	109.1
94		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-4.5271	0.0000	108.5
95		Drake	MVC	-4.5515	0.0000	99.4
96		Washington	P10	-4.8049	0.0000	93.1
97		Texas Christian	MWC	-4.8902	0.0000	94.9
98		Valparaiso	Horz	-4.9458	0.0000	104.0
99		Northeastern	CAA	-5.0070	0.0000	100.6
100		Western Michigan	MAC	-5.1794	0.0000	118.4
101	X	Montana	BSky	-5.2196	0.0000	115.4
102		Purdue	B10	-5.3179	0.0000	99.7
103		Wright St.	Horz	-5.3527	0.0000	112.4
104	X	Belmont	ASun	-5.3846	0.0000	127.3
105		Ohio	MAC	-5.4417	0.0000	109.4
106		Dayton	A10	-5.4693	0.0000	93.0
107		Alabama	SEC	-5.7888	0.0000	96.5
108		Arizona St.	P10	-5.8782	0.0000	96.8
109	X	North Dakota St.	Sum	-5.9520	0.0000	132.9
110		St. John's	BE	-5.9962	0.0000	94.8
111		Charlotte	A10	-6.0879	0.0000	107.2
112		George Washington	A10	-6.1015	0.0000	113.8
113		Michigan	B10	-6.1853	0.0000	100.1
114		Utah	MWC	-6.2857	0.0000	104.3
115		Bradley	MVC	-6.2965	0.0000	109.7
116		Pacific	BW	-6.4850	0.0000	127.1
117		Wichita St.	MVC	-6.5650	0.0000	109.9
118		North Texas	SB	-6.6602	0.0000	132.5
119		Wake Forest	ACC	-6.7157	0.0000	110.7
120		Air Force	MWC	-6.7371	0.0000	115.1
121		Georgia Southern	SC	-6.7410	0.0000	128.5
122		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-6.7746	0.0000	138.4
123		Louisiana St.	SEC	-6.9552	0.0000	110.2
124		Oklahoma St.	B12	-7.1217	0.0000	107.9
125		Niagara	MAAC	-7.3021	0.0000	139.3
126		Hofstra	CAA	-7.7199	0.0000	132.1
127		Oral Roberts	Sum	-7.7290	0.0000	148.6
128		Central Florida	CUSA	-7.7593	0.0000	135.8
129		Tulane	CUSA	-7.7880	0.0000	136.4
130		Nebraska	B12	-7.9057	0.0000	126.9
131		Hampton	MEAC	-7.9495	0.0000	146.4
132		Illinois St.	MVC	-8.0464	0.0000	130.5
133		Colorado St.	MWC	-8.1176	0.0000	117.9
134		Appalachian St.	SC	-8.1918	0.0000	149.1
135		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-8.1952	0.0000	150.1
136		DePaul	BE	-8.1989	0.0000	115.1
137		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-8.1997	0.0000	131.8
138		Manhattan	MAAC	-8.4570	0.0000	159.5
139		Marist	MAAC	-8.5691	0.0000	144.2
140	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-8.6065	0.0000	159.1
141		New Mexico St.	WAC	-8.7360	0.0000	145.4
142		Cal Poly	BW	-8.8391	0.0000	150.3
143		Monmouth	NEC	-9.0995	0.0000	166.5
144	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-9.1555	0.0000	169.4
145		Auburn	SEC	-9.1758	0.0000	129.1
146		Detroit	Horz	-9.2150	0.0000	152.7
147	X	Brown	Ivy	-9.2269	0.0000	152.6
148		Cleveland St.	Horz	-9.2312	0.0000	150.8
149		Oakland	Sum	-9.2316	0.0000	161.0
150		Vermont	AE	-9.3391	0.0000	163.7
151		Chattanooga	SC	-9.3747	0.0000	158.9
152		NC Asheville	BSth	-9.3919	0.0000	158.8
153		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-9.3942	0.0000	145.9
154		Yale	Ivy	-9.4934	0.0000	159.9
155		Boise St.	WAC	-9.5652	0.0000	161.0
156		NC Wilmington	CAA	-9.5722	0.0000	155.3
157		Northern Arizona	BSky	-9.7067	0.0000	167.4
158		Portland St.	BSky	-9.7139	0.0000	169.6
159		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-9.8436	0.0000	163.6
160		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-9.9730	0.0000	168.5
161		Marshall	CUSA	-10.0943	0.0000	155.0
162		College of Charleston	SC	-10.1877	0.0000	164.9
163		Hawaii	WAC	-10.3157	0.0000	169.9
164		MD Baltimore County	AE	-10.3294	0.0000	171.2
165	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-10.3373	0.0000	175.8
166		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-10.3739	0.0000	169.6
167		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-10.4767	0.0000	172.4
168		Murray St.	OVC	-10.4915	0.0000	182.4
169		IUPUI	Sum	-10.5110	0.0000	179.3
170		Colorado	B12	-10.5789	0.0000	150.1
171		San Francisco	WCC	-10.7716	0.0000	163.2
172		Utah Valley St.	ind	-10.8138	0.0000	190.3
173		Towson	CAA	-10.9619	0.0000	171.5
174		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-10.9909	0.0000	173.3
175		Akron	MAC	-11.0949	0.0000	176.2
176		Iowa St.	B12	-11.1260	0.0000	154.3
177		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-11.2437	0.0000	174.9
178		Rutgers	BE	-11.2575	0.0000	148.0
179		South Florida	BE	-11.2726	0.0000	156.7
180		Tulsa	CUSA	-11.2837	0.0000	174.3
181		Rider	MAAC	-11.3690	0.0000	185.2
182		Gardner Webb	ASun	-11.5535	0.0000	187.5
183		UC Irvine	BW	-11.6422	0.0000	179.9
184		New Hampshire	AE	-11.6635	0.0000	185.9
185		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-11.9682	0.0000	177.5
186		Loyola MD	MAAC	-11.9923	0.0000	185.9
187		Penn St.	B10	-12.0245	0.0000	163.0
188		San Diego	WCC	-12.1390	0.0000	167.5
189		Wagner	NEC	-12.2202	0.0000	207.6
190		Toledo	MAC	-12.2352	0.0000	182.6
191		Fordham	A10	-12.6176	0.0000	170.9
192		Iowa	B10	-12.8464	0.0000	174.8
193		St. Francis NY	NEC	-12.8742	0.0000	212.8
194		Central Connecticut	NEC	-12.9139	0.0000	213.6
195		Hartford	AE	-12.9633	0.0000	201.1
196		James Madison	CAA	-12.9998	0.0000	189.8
197		Fresno St.	WAC	-13.0164	0.0000	193.4
198		Northwestern	B10	-13.0894	0.0000	177.4
199		Wyoming	MWC	-13.2137	0.0000	182.4
200		Boston University	AE	-13.2619	0.0000	200.9
201		Utah St.	WAC	-13.3250	0.0000	204.4
202		Arkansas St.	SB	-13.3296	0.0000	207.4
203		Youngstown St.	Horz	-13.3318	0.0000	194.1
204		Cornell	Ivy	-13.3608	0.0000	208.9
205		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-13.3613	0.0000	217.2
206		American	Pat	-13.5066	0.0000	204.2
207		McNeese St.	Slnd	-13.6397	0.0000	218.4
208		Middle Tennessee	SB	-13.6459	0.0000	202.8
209		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-13.6737	0.0000	210.9
210		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-13.7021	0.0000	209.4
211		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-13.8093	0.0000	214.2
212		San Jose St.	WAC	-13.8305	0.0000	210.6
213		Bowling Green	MAC	-13.8752	0.0000	206.9
214		Princeton	Ivy	-13.9563	0.0000	219.6
215		Cincinnati	BE	-13.9621	0.0000	171.2
216		High Point	BSth	-14.0095	0.0000	218.5
217		Harvard	Ivy	-14.1285	0.0000	209.6
218		Indiana St.	MVC	-14.1449	0.0000	189.2
219		Colgate	Pat	-14.2140	0.0000	212.0
220		Richmond	A10	-14.3727	0.0000	205.1
221		Lehigh	Pat	-14.4274	0.0000	214.6
222		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-14.6217	0.0000	221.6
223		Jacksonville	ASun	-14.8010	0.0000	231.6
224		Oregon St.	P10	-14.8265	0.0000	189.2
225		Elon	SC	-15.2248	0.0000	226.0
226		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-15.4892	0.0000	230.8
227		Weber St.	BSky	-15.5182	0.0000	235.0
228		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-15.6378	0.0000	235.2
229		Montana St.	BSky	-15.6422	0.0000	235.2
230		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-15.6489	0.0000	223.9
231	X	Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-15.8272	0.0000	248.3
232		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-15.9198	0.0000	237.2
233		St. Peter's	MAAC	-15.9735	0.0000	235.1
234		Pepperdine	WCC	-15.9979	0.0000	224.9
235		Texas Southern	SWAC	-16.0221	0.0000	242.7
236		Central Michigan	MAC	-16.2286	0.0000	239.4
237		Samford	OVC	-16.2443	0.0000	250.4
238		Fairfield	MAAC	-16.5510	0.0000	238.0
239		NC Greensboro	SC	-16.5536	0.0000	243.2
240		Evansville	MVC	-16.6060	0.0000	219.8
241		William & Mary	CAA	-16.7309	0.0000	227.0
242		Portland	WCC	-16.8560	0.0000	236.7
243		UC Davis	BW	-16.9575	0.0000	250.6
244		Alabama St.	SWAC	-17.1491	0.0000	269.9
245		Long Island	NEC	-17.1947	0.0000	255.5
246		Delaware	CAA	-17.2151	0.0000	233.8
247		Dartmouth	Ivy	-17.2506	0.0000	259.7
248		Wofford	SC	-17.2797	0.0000	246.6
249		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-17.3554	0.0000	247.1
250		Columbia	Ivy	-17.3646	0.0000	256.2
251		Lipscomb	ASun	-17.4311	0.0000	266.1
252		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-17.5158	0.0000	254.3
253		Navy	Pat	-17.5246	0.0000	248.2
254		Lamar	Slnd	-17.6088	0.0000	257.6
255		Mercer	ASun	-17.8085	0.0000	276.5
256		Tennessee St.	OVC	-17.8182	0.0000	261.6
257		Buffalo	MAC	-17.8902	0.0000	249.1
258		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-17.9322	0.0000	263.6
259		Western Carolina	SC	-17.9324	0.0000	255.8
260		Furman	SC	-18.0690	0.0000	257.8
261		Southern	SWAC	-18.0736	0.0000	273.2
262		Troy	SB	-18.0872	0.0000	252.0
263		Maine	AE	-18.1029	0.0000	260.0
264		Lafayette	Pat	-18.1902	0.0000	256.7
265		Chicago St.	ind	-18.2110	0.0000	270.8
266		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-18.2170	0.0000	271.5
267		Eastern Washington	BSky	-18.3411	0.0000	259.3
268		Florida International	SB	-18.4005	0.0000	251.4
269		Jackson St.	SWAC	-18.4125	0.0000	275.8
270		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-18.4310	0.0000	280.1
271		Centenary	Sum	-18.4600	0.0000	266.4
272		Liberty	BSth	-18.5036	0.0000	263.0
273		Northern Colorado	BSky	-18.6386	0.0000	277.2
274		Western Illinois	Sum	-18.7127	0.0000	271.2
275		Delaware St.	MEAC	-18.7630	0.0000	272.6
276		Southern Utah	Sum	-18.7716	0.0000	272.1
277		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-18.8274	0.0000	279.2
278		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-18.8417	0.0000	273.3
279		Rice	CUSA	-18.9872	0.0000	252.7
280		Iona	MAAC	-19.0725	0.0000	271.6
281		Ball St.	MAC	-19.1900	0.0000	268.6
282		Texas St.	Slnd	-19.3238	0.0000	280.3
283		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-19.3854	0.0000	276.9
284		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-19.4399	0.0000	278.9
285		East Carolina	CUSA	-19.5484	0.0000	266.6
286		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-19.5594	0.0000	291.3
287		Charleston Southern	BSth	-19.6043	0.0000	280.7
288		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-19.6862	0.0000	270.3
289		South Dakota St.	Sum	-19.9513	0.0000	291.5
290		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-19.9684	0.0000	287.2
291		Campbell	ASun	-20.0587	0.0000	296.6
292		La Salle	A10	-20.0971	0.0000	254.6
293		Long Beach St.	BW	-20.2052	0.0000	282.8
294		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-20.2063	0.0000	296.1
295		Idaho St.	BSky	-20.2104	0.0000	291.3
296		Northern Illinois	MAC	-20.3563	0.0000	281.3
297		Coppin St.	MEAC	-20.3670	0.0000	284.5
298		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-20.6013	0.0000	285.5
299		Quinnipiac	NEC	-20.7285	0.0000	300.1
300		St. Bonaventure	A10	-20.8405	0.0000	265.1
301		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-20.9947	0.0000	279.5
302		Morehead St.	OVC	-20.9971	0.0000	298.9
303		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-21.0594	0.0000	298.9
304		Denver	SB	-21.2119	0.0000	291.5
305		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-21.2165	0.0000	302.8
306		Florida Atlantic	SB	-21.2360	0.0000	285.5
307		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-21.3033	0.0000	315.8
308		UC Riverside	BW	-21.3815	0.0000	288.7
309		Sacred Heart	NEC	-21.4922	0.0000	298.4
310		Grambling	SWAC	-21.5014	0.0000	311.1
311		Binghamton	AE	-21.5142	0.0000	309.7
312		Stetson	ASun	-21.8418	0.0000	308.2
313		Idaho	WAC	-21.8549	0.0000	299.7
314		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-21.8860	0.0000	319.9
315		Howard	MEAC	-21.8926	0.0000	309.4
316		Longwood	ind	-21.8993	0.0000	318.6
317		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-21.9962	0.0000	313.9
318		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-22.0258	0.0000	320.1
319		Stony Brook	AE	-22.0625	0.0000	311.5
320		Georgia St.	CAA	-22.3617	0.0000	285.4
321		St. Francis PA	NEC	-22.3913	0.0000	313.7
322		Florida A&M	MEAC	-22.5658	0.0000	313.5
323		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-22.6306	0.0000	331.6
324		North Carolina Central	ind	-22.6525	0.0000	313.8
325		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-22.8268	0.0000	325.9
326		Sacramento St.	BSky	-22.9738	0.0000	313.4
327		Savannah St.	ind	-23.0127	0.0000	323.7
328		Radford	BSth	-23.1697	0.0000	314.9
329		Texas Pan American	ind	-23.2738	0.0000	338.8
330		Army	Pat	-23.2882	0.0000	317.3
331		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.3059	0.0000	331.1
332		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-23.3538	0.0000	307.8
333		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-23.4095	0.0000	332.9
334		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-23.6015	0.0000	330.1
335		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-23.6987	0.0000	339.8
336		Canisius	MAAC	-23.9778	0.0000	326.6
337		North Florida	ASun	-24.4890	0.0000	334.7
338		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-24.6169	0.0000	333.2
339		Presbyterian	ind	-24.7678	0.0000	333.1
340		The Citadel	SC	-25.0491	0.0000	325.4
341		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-25.8327	0.0000	340.1

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com
A reader pointed out that I hadn't included an automatic bid for a CAA team, so I went back and gave it to George Mason based on their rating based on the date of these projections. That bumped Notre Dame out of the tourney.