Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive

Through games of Feb 24, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	UCLA	P10	8.9997	1.0000	1.2
2	X	North Carolina	ACC	8.5305	1.0000	1.9
3	X	Ohio St.	B10	8.1358	1.0000	3.8
4	X	Florida	SEC	7.7945	1.0000	8.4
5		Wisconsin	B10	7.0998	1.0000	6.2
6		Pittsburgh	BE	6.9020	1.0000	4.4
7		Southern Illinois	MVC	6.6016	1.0000	10.0
8	X	Kansas	B12	6.5584	1.0000	13.0
9		Texas A&M	B12	6.3254	1.0000	10.3
10	X	Georgetown	BE	6.1198	1.0000	12.2
11	X	Nevada	WAC	6.1177	1.0000	18.6
12		Kentucky	SEC	6.0148	1.0000	7.0
13		Duke	ACC	5.8761	1.0000	5.0
14	X	Memphis	CUSA	5.4532	1.0000	11.8
15		Washington St.	P10	4.5766	1.0000	26.4
16		Arizona	P10	4.2942	1.0000	12.2
17	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	4.2883	1.0000	17.5
18		Tennessee	SEC	4.2857	1.0000	15.5
19		Virginia Tech	ACC	4.2727	1.0000	21.6
20		Maryland	ACC	4.1088	1.0000	15.1
21	X	Butler	Horz	4.0311	1.0000	32.7
22		Michigan St.	B10	3.7364	0.9999	18.7
23		Boston College	ACC	3.7329	0.9999	22.6
24		Air Force	MWC	3.4750	0.9997	25.5
25		Texas	B12	3.2973	0.9995	37.6
26		Virginia	ACC	3.2244	0.9994	36.7
27		Creighton	MVC	2.8918	0.9981	36.0
28		Brigham Young	MWC	2.8373	0.9977	29.0
29		Marquette	BE	2.6449	0.9959	19.9
30		Southern California	P10	2.6412	0.9959	39.3
31		Vanderbilt	SEC	2.5832	0.9951	35.2
32	X	Xavier	A10	2.5600	0.9948	37.7
33		Villanova	BE	2.5033	0.9938	20.2
34		Oregon	P10	2.4673	0.9932	26.1
35		Louisville	BE	2.4616	0.9931	33.2
36		Notre Dame	BE	2.2122	0.9865	48.7
37		Old Dominion	CAA	2.1021	0.9822	37.3
38		Clemson	ACC	2.0158	0.9781	40.7
39		Illinois	B10	1.9063	0.9717	26.3
40	X	Missouri St.	MVC	1.7329	0.9584	30.5
41		Indiana	B10	1.6550	0.9510	33.8
42		Georgia Tech	ACC	1.6085	0.9461	42.7
43		Stanford	P10	0.9982	0.8409	44.8
44		Syracuse	BE	0.9581	0.8310	36.0
45		Appalachian St.	SC	0.8735	0.8088	67.9
46		Purdue	B10	0.5176	0.6976	48.5
47	X	Winthrop	BSth	0.4551	0.6755	71.9
48		Georgia	SEC	0.4390	0.6697	47.1
49		Drexel	CAA	0.4167	0.6616	52.4
50		San Diego St.	MWC	0.3036	0.6193	51.4
51		Massachusetts	A10	0.2029	0.5804	64.8
52		Alabama	SEC	0.1374	0.5546	44.0
53	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-0.0385	0.4847	56.3
54		Oklahoma St.	B12	-0.0598	0.4762	48.4
55		Texas Tech	B12	-0.5148	0.3033	43.9
56	X	Davidson	SC	-0.5915	0.2771	65.1
57		West Virginia	BE	-0.7056	0.2402	59.1
58		Michigan	B10	-0.7855	0.2161	49.9
59	X	Gonzaga	WCC	-0.8323	0.2026	65.0
60		Kansas St.	B12	-0.8387	0.2008	62.6
61		Providence	BE	-1.1531	0.1244	56.1
62		Bradley	MVC	-1.2249	0.1103	43.8
63		Hofstra	CAA	-1.3146	0.0943	78.7
64		Mississippi St.	SEC	-1.3629	0.0865	59.1
65		Florida St.	ACC	-1.3829	0.0834	47.2
66		St. Louis	A10	-1.5343	0.0625	79.1
67		Mississippi	SEC	-1.6479	0.0497	63.3
68	X	Akron	MAC	-1.7214	0.0426	83.1
69		DePaul	BE	-1.7774	0.0378	59.4
70	X	Vermont	AE	-1.7845	0.0372	86.8
71		New Mexico St.	WAC	-1.8706	0.0307	80.7
72		Nebraska	B12	-1.8884	0.0295	73.6
73		Santa Clara	WCC	-2.0897	0.0183	82.7
74		Iowa	B10	-2.1476	0.0159	75.9
75		Missouri	B12	-2.2311	0.0128	63.5
76		Arkansas	SEC	-2.2662	0.0117	53.7
77		Fresno St.	WAC	-2.5858	0.0049	80.9
78	X	Pennsylvania	Ivy	-2.6662	0.0038	90.4
79		Northern Iowa	MVC	-2.7020	0.0034	80.8
80	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-2.8567	0.0021	82.1
81		Utah St.	WAC	-3.0034	0.0013	73.7
82	X	Western Kentucky	SB	-3.2505	0.0006	94.6
83		Bucknell	Pat	-3.2573	0.0006	97.6
84		Hawaii	WAC	-3.4264	0.0003	90.4
85		California	P10	-3.4432	0.0003	66.7
86		Wright St.	Horz	-3.4761	0.0003	99.9
87		Auburn	SEC	-3.6254	0.0001	81.0
88		Kent St.	MAC	-3.6393	0.0001	95.7
89		Connecticut	BE	-3.8399	0.0001	67.6
90		Saint Joseph's	A10	-3.8420	0.0001	90.8
91		Washington	P10	-3.9217	0.0000	78.6
92	X	Marist	MAAC	-4.1564	0.0000	111.2
93		Dayton	A10	-4.1662	0.0000	87.1
94		Houston	CUSA	-4.1859	0.0000	91.4
95	X	Long Beach St.	BW	-4.5233	0.0000	104.7
96		Albany	AE	-4.5862	0.0000	110.1
97		Louisiana St.	SEC	-4.5998	0.0000	70.3
98		Wichita St.	MVC	-4.7803	0.0000	89.1
99	X	Oral Roberts	MCon	-4.8110	0.0000	110.2
100	X	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-4.8237	0.0000	110.6
101		South Carolina	SEC	-4.8884	0.0000	79.9
102		Oklahoma	B12	-4.9157	0.0000	79.2
103		Boise St.	WAC	-5.0270	0.0000	110.8
104		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-5.1547	0.0000	113.3
105		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-5.1715	0.0000	100.4
106		George Washington	A10	-5.2184	0.0000	94.7
107		Toledo	MAC	-5.3010	0.0000	109.3
108		Fordham	A10	-5.4763	0.0000	112.0
109		Rhode Island	A10	-5.6651	0.0000	112.6
110		Central Florida	CUSA	-5.6728	0.0000	121.3
111		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-5.8040	0.0000	133.2
112	X	Belmont	ASun	-5.9164	0.0000	136.6
113		Ohio	MAC	-6.0975	0.0000	110.4
114	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-6.1340	0.0000	136.1
115		Miami OH	MAC	-6.1380	0.0000	113.0
116		Tulsa	CUSA	-6.2596	0.0000	112.0
117		Wyoming	MWC	-6.3553	0.0000	114.3
118		North Carolina St.	ACC	-6.4744	0.0000	93.4
119		South Alabama	SB	-6.5310	0.0000	130.0
120		Colorado St.	MWC	-6.6182	0.0000	112.5
121		UAB	CUSA	-6.6942	0.0000	114.3
122		St. John's	BE	-6.7142	0.0000	103.2
123		Wake Forest	ACC	-6.7934	0.0000	109.0
124		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-6.9514	0.0000	130.4
125		College of Charleston	SC	-7.1501	0.0000	128.1
126		Utah Valley St.	ind	-7.3559	0.0000	145.2
127		Oakland	MCon	-7.3608	0.0000	138.1
128		Utah	MWC	-7.4842	0.0000	121.6
129		Drake	MVC	-7.4980	0.0000	103.3
130		Western Michigan	MAC	-7.7197	0.0000	140.2
131		Niagara	MAAC	-7.7589	0.0000	155.0
132		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-7.7809	0.0000	148.3
133		Central Connecticut	NEC	-7.8453	0.0000	157.1
134	X	Delaware St.	MEAC	-7.8871	0.0000	148.7
135		Siena	MAAC	-8.1641	0.0000	146.0
136		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-8.1649	0.0000	151.4
137		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-8.2256	0.0000	151.6
138		Seton Hall	BE	-8.4890	0.0000	120.3
139		Yale	Ivy	-8.6925	0.0000	152.0
140		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-8.9209	0.0000	164.8
141		Rice	CUSA	-8.9605	0.0000	150.7
142		Iowa St.	B12	-8.9694	0.0000	123.0
143		North Texas	SB	-8.9695	0.0000	165.6
144		Illinois St.	MVC	-9.0351	0.0000	123.1
145		New Mexico	MWC	-9.0861	0.0000	125.5
146		Indiana St.	MVC	-9.0884	0.0000	129.7
147		Temple	A10	-9.3173	0.0000	140.8
148		Miami FL	ACC	-9.3265	0.0000	141.4
149		Cal Poly	BW	-9.3965	0.0000	166.6
150		Cornell	Ivy	-9.4844	0.0000	161.7
151		Weber St.	BSky	-9.6105	0.0000	164.9
152		Charlotte	A10	-9.8694	0.0000	133.1
153		St. Mary's	WCC	-9.9635	0.0000	150.2
154		Cincinnati	BE	-9.9845	0.0000	134.9
155		Valparaiso	MCon	-10.0142	0.0000	168.8
156	X	Sacred Heart	NEC	-10.0159	0.0000	177.7
157		Baylor	B12	-10.0225	0.0000	122.8
158		Murray St.	OVC	-10.1160	0.0000	179.7
159		George Mason	CAA	-10.1533	0.0000	140.4
160		Evansville	MVC	-10.1933	0.0000	122.9
161		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-10.3735	0.0000	159.4
162		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-10.4181	0.0000	158.0
163		Northern Arizona	BSky	-10.4779	0.0000	186.9
164		North Dakota St.	ind	-10.5048	0.0000	186.3
165		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-10.5354	0.0000	162.7
166		Marshall	CUSA	-10.6860	0.0000	166.0
167		Florida Atlantic	SB	-10.7478	0.0000	175.3
168		Loyola MD	MAAC	-10.7612	0.0000	191.5
169		High Point	BSth	-10.8801	0.0000	185.1
170		Northwestern	B10	-10.9020	0.0000	134.0
171		Youngstown St.	Horz	-11.1220	0.0000	168.0
172		Towson	CAA	-11.2200	0.0000	153.1
173		Rider	MAAC	-11.2544	0.0000	188.3
174		Samford	OVC	-11.3121	0.0000	190.7
175		Tulane	CUSA	-11.4402	0.0000	180.4
176		Jacksonville	ASun	-11.6046	0.0000	191.5
177		Robert Morris	NEC	-11.6467	0.0000	192.1
178		San Francisco	WCC	-11.6632	0.0000	168.3
179		UC Irvine	BW	-11.7600	0.0000	183.9
180		Minnesota	B10	-11.7947	0.0000	145.3
181		NC Greensboro	SC	-11.8990	0.0000	198.2
182		Middle Tennessee	SB	-11.9517	0.0000	181.3
183		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-12.1147	0.0000	194.5
184		William & Mary	CAA	-12.1215	0.0000	168.8
185		Arkansas St.	SB	-12.1657	0.0000	201.2
186		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-12.2562	0.0000	179.9
187		Penn St.	B10	-12.3124	0.0000	148.0
188	X	Idaho St.	BSky	-12.3418	0.0000	186.5
189		Pacific	BW	-12.5774	0.0000	186.5
190		Texas Christian	MWC	-12.6169	0.0000	166.3
191		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-12.6388	0.0000	178.9
192		San Diego	WCC	-12.7458	0.0000	187.8
193		South Florida	BE	-12.8348	0.0000	157.1
194		Northeastern	CAA	-12.9386	0.0000	176.2
195		Portland St.	BSky	-12.9786	0.0000	204.1
196		Lipscomb	ASun	-13.0418	0.0000	201.8
197		Columbia	Ivy	-13.2162	0.0000	202.0
198		Fairfield	MAAC	-13.2906	0.0000	197.5
199		Lamar	Slnd	-13.3510	0.0000	218.1
200		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-13.4551	0.0000	193.5
201		Furman	SC	-13.4573	0.0000	205.6
202		Jackson St.	SWAC	-13.4874	0.0000	214.2
203		Eastern Washington	BSky	-13.5179	0.0000	208.1
204		American	Pat	-13.5807	0.0000	198.1
205		Duquesne	A10	-13.6257	0.0000	213.8
206		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-13.7608	0.0000	210.3
207		Manhattan	MAAC	-13.7992	0.0000	227.8
208		Rutgers	BE	-13.9100	0.0000	172.7
209		Southern Utah	MCon	-13.9585	0.0000	214.1
210		Detroit	Horz	-14.0753	0.0000	191.3
211		IUPUI	MCon	-14.1751	0.0000	215.5
212		Oregon St.	P10	-14.1798	0.0000	155.4
213		Hampton	MEAC	-14.2495	0.0000	220.8
214		Montana	BSky	-14.2565	0.0000	225.4
215		Harvard	Ivy	-14.2933	0.0000	204.6
216		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-14.3115	0.0000	230.5
217		Florida A&M	MEAC	-14.5326	0.0000	231.8
218		Troy	SB	-14.6305	0.0000	213.9
219		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-14.6603	0.0000	225.9
220		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-14.7051	0.0000	222.7
221		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-14.7143	0.0000	229.7
222		Boston University	AE	-14.7869	0.0000	211.1
223		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-14.9243	0.0000	234.5
224		New Orleans	SB	-15.0015	0.0000	219.2
225		Central Michigan	MAC	-15.1610	0.0000	228.5
226		Lehigh	Pat	-15.2415	0.0000	222.6
227		Chattanooga	SC	-15.2636	0.0000	216.7
228		Quinnipiac	NEC	-15.3286	0.0000	243.2
229	X	Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-15.4973	0.0000	237.4
230		MD Baltimore County	AE	-15.5481	0.0000	226.5
231		Buffalo	MAC	-15.7936	0.0000	220.4
232		Brown	Ivy	-15.8182	0.0000	244.2
233		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-15.8329	0.0000	211.7
234		Hartford	AE	-16.0392	0.0000	238.9
235		Navy	Pat	-16.3382	0.0000	227.0
236		Arizona St.	P10	-16.5899	0.0000	192.2
237		Florida International	SB	-16.6818	0.0000	246.5
238		Princeton	Ivy	-16.8848	0.0000	240.9
239		Binghamton	AE	-16.9520	0.0000	246.4
240		Canisius	MAAC	-16.9886	0.0000	250.0
241		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-17.1022	0.0000	240.7
242		Colorado	B12	-17.1869	0.0000	216.2
243		Ball St.	MAC	-17.2329	0.0000	235.5
244		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-17.2633	0.0000	252.1
245		Maine	AE	-17.3985	0.0000	261.9
246		Missouri Kansas City	MCon	-17.4230	0.0000	257.5
247		Monmouth	NEC	-17.5216	0.0000	247.7
248		Bowling Green	MAC	-17.6395	0.0000	243.0
249		Dartmouth	Ivy	-17.6704	0.0000	247.4
250		Army	Pat	-17.6739	0.0000	235.4
251		IUPU Fort Wayne	ind	-17.6913	0.0000	261.8
252		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-17.7316	0.0000	260.5
253		Georgia Southern	SC	-17.8578	0.0000	250.1
254		McNeese St.	Slnd	-17.8885	0.0000	264.4
255		Montana St.	BSky	-18.0793	0.0000	273.8
256		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-18.1714	0.0000	270.1
257		San Jose St.	WAC	-18.1912	0.0000	229.3
258		Texas Southern	SWAC	-18.2255	0.0000	264.3
259		Mercer	ASun	-18.2306	0.0000	274.0
260		Tennessee St.	OVC	-18.2893	0.0000	262.0
261		Campbell	ASun	-18.6906	0.0000	271.2
262		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-18.7431	0.0000	277.1
263		Gardner Webb	ASun	-18.7480	0.0000	262.5
264		Colgate	Pat	-18.7755	0.0000	255.7
265		Chicago St.	MCon	-18.8133	0.0000	247.5
266		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-18.9534	0.0000	272.6
267		Liberty	BSth	-18.9815	0.0000	279.2
268		Coppin St.	MEAC	-19.0600	0.0000	263.5
269		La Salle	A10	-19.1423	0.0000	244.6
270		Georgia St.	CAA	-19.1701	0.0000	230.7
271		Morehead St.	OVC	-19.2299	0.0000	287.1
272		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-19.2862	0.0000	282.6
273		New Hampshire	AE	-19.4521	0.0000	278.6
274		Savannah St.	ind	-19.5236	0.0000	278.9
275		Portland	WCC	-19.5572	0.0000	258.8
276		Morgan St.	MEAC	-19.5709	0.0000	299.7
277		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-19.7078	0.0000	290.9
278		Cleveland St.	Horz	-19.8024	0.0000	265.0
279		Grambling	SWAC	-19.8155	0.0000	295.9
280		Stony Brook	AE	-19.8905	0.0000	273.5
281		Richmond	A10	-19.9176	0.0000	260.2
282		Wagner	NEC	-20.0373	0.0000	292.8
283		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-20.0389	0.0000	292.1
284		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-20.0949	0.0000	299.9
285		Stetson	ASun	-20.1181	0.0000	285.3
286		St. Bonaventure	A10	-20.1890	0.0000	272.1
287		Texas Pan American	ind	-20.2389	0.0000	296.5
288		NC Asheville	BSth	-20.2741	0.0000	282.7
289		NC Wilmington	CAA	-20.3106	0.0000	253.7
290		Western Carolina	SC	-20.3511	0.0000	265.2
291		Centenary	MCon	-20.4190	0.0000	281.3
292		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-20.5800	0.0000	291.6
293		Pepperdine	WCC	-20.6580	0.0000	271.8
294		St. Francis NY	NEC	-20.9516	0.0000	291.0
295		Northern Illinois	MAC	-20.9815	0.0000	285.5
296		Southern	SWAC	-20.9883	0.0000	298.5
297		Long Island	NEC	-21.2886	0.0000	309.6
298		UC Davis	ind	-21.2897	0.0000	309.7
299		James Madison	CAA	-21.3041	0.0000	289.5
300		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-21.4530	0.0000	320.2
301		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-21.5265	0.0000	310.4
302		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-21.6285	0.0000	306.0
303		Alabama St.	SWAC	-21.8447	0.0000	307.4
304		Howard	MEAC	-21.8709	0.0000	319.2
305		Sacramento St.	BSky	-21.8942	0.0000	305.4
306		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-22.0395	0.0000	316.8
307		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-22.1289	0.0000	296.5
308		Lafayette	Pat	-22.1439	0.0000	286.1
309		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-22.2636	0.0000	317.6
310		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-22.5089	0.0000	324.3
311		Elon	SC	-22.5160	0.0000	293.6
312		Delaware	CAA	-22.5413	0.0000	294.6
313		Texas St.	Slnd	-22.5591	0.0000	318.2
314		Longwood	ind	-22.6197	0.0000	304.3
315		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-22.6713	0.0000	329.7
316		Winston Salem St.	ind	-22.7120	0.0000	314.6
317		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-22.7803	0.0000	316.0
318		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-22.9314	0.0000	326.3
319		UC Riverside	BW	-22.9402	0.0000	316.1
320		Radford	BSth	-22.9839	0.0000	316.6
321		East Carolina	CUSA	-23.0625	0.0000	310.7
322		Wofford	SC	-23.1416	0.0000	302.7
323		St. Peter's	MAAC	-23.4974	0.0000	325.4
324		St. Francis PA	NEC	-23.5682	0.0000	322.1
325		Western Illinois	MCon	-23.6156	0.0000	327.3
326		South Dakota St.	ind	-23.7501	0.0000	328.1
327		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-23.8415	0.0000	321.5
328		The Citadel	SC	-23.8506	0.0000	302.3
329		Idaho	WAC	-23.8870	0.0000	301.5
330		Iona	MAAC	-24.3361	0.0000	326.0
331		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-24.3464	0.0000	331.5
332		Northern Colorado	BSky	-24.3875	0.0000	335.2
333		Denver	SB	-24.4196	0.0000	332.8
334		North Florida	ASun	-24.5411	0.0000	333.9
335		Charleston Southern	BSth	-24.6858	0.0000	330.9
336		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-26.3374	0.0000	335.8

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, and to Jay Colemen for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com