Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive

Through games of Jan 23, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	UCLA	P10	8.8016	1.0000	1.6
2	X	North Carolina	ACC	8.2688	1.0000	1.9
3		Wisconsin	B10	7.5523	1.0000	6.3
4	X	Florida	SEC	7.0821	1.0000	11.4
5	X	Texas A&M	B12	6.9077	1.0000	9.1
6		Pittsburgh	BE	6.7988	1.0000	6.9
7		Air Force	MWC	6.3602	1.0000	14.6
8		Arizona	P10	6.3357	1.0000	6.9
9		Duke	ACC	6.2845	1.0000	3.9
10	X	Ohio St.	B10	6.0994	1.0000	10.4
11		Kentucky	SEC	5.8602	1.0000	9.2
12		Clemson	ACC	5.4555	1.0000	16.3
13	X	Memphis	CUSA	5.3977	1.0000	13.0
14		Oregon	P10	4.7143	1.0000	16.6
15		Georgia Tech	ACC	4.6278	1.0000	21.4
16	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	4.4545	1.0000	20.7
17	X	Villanova	BE	4.4381	1.0000	11.3
18		Oklahoma St.	B12	4.3008	1.0000	19.7
19		Washington St.	P10	4.2979	1.0000	28.8
20	X	Butler	Horz	4.2130	1.0000	30.1
21		Indiana	B10	4.0654	1.0000	22.6
22		Kansas	B12	4.0198	1.0000	25.8
23		Marquette	BE	3.9245	1.0000	17.5
24	X	Nevada	WAC	3.3222	0.9996	32.5
25		Tennessee	SEC	3.2718	0.9995	19.1
26		Georgetown	BE	3.2156	0.9993	29.3
27		Michigan St.	B10	3.0252	0.9988	21.3
28		Southern Illinois	MVC	2.7889	0.9974	29.8
29		Georgia	SEC	2.7139	0.9967	35.4
30		Notre Dame	BE	2.6110	0.9955	40.7
31		Virginia Tech	ACC	2.6070	0.9954	32.6
32		Alabama	SEC	2.3513	0.9906	27.7
33	X	Missouri St.	MVC	2.3495	0.9906	30.8
34	X	Xavier	A10	1.9941	0.9769	43.7
35		Maryland	ACC	1.9879	0.9766	23.0
36		Texas	B12	1.9336	0.9734	43.3
37		Boston College	ACC	1.6881	0.9543	38.2
38		Arkansas	SEC	1.6480	0.9503	30.1
39		Texas Tech	B12	1.4069	0.9203	34.7
40		Purdue	B10	1.3396	0.9098	43.1
41		Syracuse	BE	1.0719	0.8581	37.8
42		West Virginia	BE	0.9426	0.8271	44.8
43		Florida St.	ACC	0.8312	0.7971	37.6
44		Stanford	P10	0.7647	0.7778	42.9
45		Creighton	MVC	0.5251	0.7003	50.1
46		Illinois	B10	0.5088	0.6945	36.9
47		Michigan	B10	0.4299	0.6664	44.6
48	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.4074	0.6581	55.9
49		Drexel	CAA	0.3328	0.6303	56.4
50		Southern California	P10	0.2284	0.5903	50.7
51	X	Gonzaga	WCC	0.0109	0.5043	58.6
52		Louisville	BE	0.0065	0.5026	51.8
53		Mississippi St.	SEC	-0.0013	0.4995	49.2
54		California	P10	-0.1475	0.4414	48.3
55		Brigham Young	MWC	-0.2633	0.3962	54.6
56		Northern Iowa	MVC	-0.2748	0.3917	61.7
57		Connecticut	BE	-0.2978	0.3829	48.8
58		Louisiana St.	SEC	-0.4080	0.3416	49.1
59	X	Winthrop	BSth	-1.0725	0.1417	82.0
60		Massachusetts	A10	-1.1242	0.1305	70.0
61		Bradley	MVC	-1.1355	0.1281	53.4
62	X	Western Kentucky	SB	-1.2007	0.1149	72.9
63		Providence	BE	-1.4852	0.0687	57.2
64	X	Davidson	SC	-1.5322	0.0627	75.6
65		Vanderbilt	SEC	-1.5666	0.0586	60.5
66		Oklahoma	B12	-1.5983	0.0550	58.5
67		New Mexico St.	WAC	-1.6631	0.0481	80.8
68		Appalachian St.	SC	-1.8152	0.0347	92.7
69	X	Pennsylvania	Ivy	-1.8635	0.0312	77.1
70		Old Dominion	CAA	-1.8806	0.0300	70.4
71		Kansas St.	B12	-2.0148	0.0220	64.2
72		Colorado St.	MWC	-2.1417	0.0161	75.0
73		Virginia	ACC	-2.4176	0.0078	70.2
74		Missouri	B12	-2.4548	0.0070	61.6
75		Wichita St.	MVC	-2.4643	0.0069	71.3
76		Dayton	A10	-2.7815	0.0027	77.2
77		Nebraska	B12	-2.8465	0.0022	77.7
78	X	Akron	MAC	-2.9810	0.0014	93.2
79		DePaul	BE	-3.0256	0.0012	67.6
80	X	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-3.0548	0.0011	88.9
81		Hofstra	CAA	-3.0693	0.0011	96.5
82		George Washington	A10	-3.0786	0.0010	84.7
83		San Diego St.	MWC	-3.2098	0.0007	78.6
84	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-3.3084	0.0005	87.7
85		Ohio	MAC	-3.4025	0.0003	90.8
86		Santa Clara	WCC	-3.5618	0.0002	87.9
87		George Mason	CAA	-3.6507	0.0001	94.7
88		Utah St.	WAC	-3.7564	0.0001	82.3
89		St. Louis	A10	-3.9275	0.0000	93.4
90		Washington	P10	-4.1154	0.0000	74.6
91		Auburn	SEC	-4.2135	0.0000	80.4
92		Saint Joseph's	A10	-4.3939	0.0000	91.0
93	X	Marist	MAAC	-4.4583	0.0000	113.9
94		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-4.4648	0.0000	99.6
95		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-4.5613	0.0000	108.7
96		Fresno St.	WAC	-4.6579	0.0000	101.9
97	X	Long Beach St.	BW	-4.7829	0.0000	109.8
98		Boise St.	WAC	-4.9472	0.0000	104.0
99		Indiana St.	MVC	-5.0377	0.0000	91.8
100		UAB	CUSA	-5.1283	0.0000	99.0
101		Mississippi	SEC	-5.3431	0.0000	84.0
102		Wyoming	MWC	-5.3532	0.0000	106.2
103		Tulsa	CUSA	-5.3792	0.0000	102.9
104	X	Oral Roberts	MCon	-5.4735	0.0000	120.9
105		Fordham	A10	-5.4754	0.0000	112.7
106		Houston	CUSA	-5.5384	0.0000	101.2
107		Iowa	B10	-5.7416	0.0000	95.2
108		Vermont	AE	-5.7482	0.0000	126.0
109		Kent St.	MAC	-5.8407	0.0000	118.2
110		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-6.1482	0.0000	121.3
111		Albany	AE	-6.1864	0.0000	125.6
112	X	Belmont	ASun	-6.2450	0.0000	138.6
113		Evansville	MVC	-6.3907	0.0000	96.6
114		Cincinnati	BE	-6.4355	0.0000	101.6
115		Baylor	B12	-6.4515	0.0000	95.8
116		Hawaii	WAC	-6.4605	0.0000	111.5
117		Bucknell	Pat	-6.5805	0.0000	132.3
118		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-6.6698	0.0000	119.0
119		Toledo	MAC	-6.6884	0.0000	126.0
120		Seton Hall	BE	-6.7229	0.0000	96.4
121		New Mexico	MWC	-6.7230	0.0000	107.2
122		Oakland	MCon	-6.8170	0.0000	130.7
123		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-6.9032	0.0000	140.2
124		Samford	OVC	-6.9538	0.0000	145.3
125	X	Idaho St.	BSky	-6.9726	0.0000	129.4
126		College of Charleston	SC	-7.0536	0.0000	132.3
127	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-7.2226	0.0000	144.7
128		Central Florida	CUSA	-7.3978	0.0000	139.2
129		Austin Peay	OVC	-7.4608	0.0000	148.9
130		Utah	MWC	-7.5356	0.0000	128.0
131		St. John's	BE	-7.5564	0.0000	111.5
132		Sacred Heart	NEC	-7.7633	0.0000	148.4
133		Temple	A10	-7.7897	0.0000	125.5
134		South Alabama	SB	-7.9114	0.0000	140.3
135		South Carolina	SEC	-7.9160	0.0000	101.1
136	X	Delaware St.	MEAC	-8.0969	0.0000	151.1
137		North Carolina St.	ACC	-8.1595	0.0000	106.6
138		Charlotte	A10	-8.1686	0.0000	126.7
139		Miami OH	MAC	-8.4442	0.0000	134.5
140		Siena	MAAC	-8.4754	0.0000	150.0
141		Middle Tennessee	SB	-8.5315	0.0000	150.8
142		St. Mary's	WCC	-8.5358	0.0000	137.1
143		Penn St.	B10	-8.5545	0.0000	117.5
144		Illinois St.	MVC	-8.6125	0.0000	118.8
145		Loyola MD	MAAC	-8.6336	0.0000	167.2
146		Western Michigan	MAC	-8.6457	0.0000	151.0
147		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-8.8180	0.0000	161.9
148	X	Tennessee Tech	OVC	-8.8335	0.0000	160.6
149		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-8.9549	0.0000	165.9
150		Northwestern	B10	-9.0211	0.0000	120.7
151		Utah Valley St.	ind	-9.0250	0.0000	161.9
152		Rhode Island	A10	-9.2342	0.0000	139.0
153		Marshall	CUSA	-9.4935	0.0000	150.6
154		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-9.6963	0.0000	165.0
155		North Dakota St.	ind	-9.7022	0.0000	173.7
156	X	Jackson St.	SWAC	-9.8374	0.0000	177.7
157		Wake Forest	ACC	-9.9194	0.0000	132.6
158		High Point	BSth	-10.1542	0.0000	172.4
159		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-10.1657	0.0000	161.1
160		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-10.1658	0.0000	150.9
161		Towson	CAA	-10.1915	0.0000	145.2
162		Wright St.	Horz	-10.4874	0.0000	165.6
163		Drake	MVC	-10.4908	0.0000	124.8
164		North Texas	SB	-10.5257	0.0000	180.7
165		Rice	CUSA	-10.6061	0.0000	172.4
166		Army	Pat	-10.6222	0.0000	164.3
167		Lipscomb	ASun	-10.8608	0.0000	182.6
168		Princeton	Ivy	-10.9549	0.0000	178.3
169		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-10.9939	0.0000	183.3
170		Miami FL	ACC	-11.0388	0.0000	151.0
171		Iowa St.	B12	-11.1225	0.0000	146.0
172		UC Irvine	BW	-11.2662	0.0000	178.9
173		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-11.3141	0.0000	179.6
174		Southern Utah	MCon	-11.3421	0.0000	185.4
175		NC Greensboro	SC	-11.3778	0.0000	192.5
176		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-11.5517	0.0000	188.7
177		Manhattan	MAAC	-11.6408	0.0000	199.9
178		Valparaiso	MCon	-11.7234	0.0000	188.1
179		Arkansas St.	SB	-11.7478	0.0000	196.5
180		Buffalo	MAC	-11.7933	0.0000	178.5
181		Texas Christian	MWC	-11.8603	0.0000	154.4
182		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-11.8625	0.0000	194.6
183		Minnesota	B10	-11.9523	0.0000	152.0
184		San Diego	WCC	-11.9797	0.0000	187.2
185		Cornell	Ivy	-12.1095	0.0000	195.1
186		William & Mary	CAA	-12.3575	0.0000	171.3
187		Youngstown St.	Horz	-12.4492	0.0000	186.8
188	X	Boston University	AE	-12.5052	0.0000	194.3
189		Navy	Pat	-12.5709	0.0000	190.3
190		Eastern Washington	BSky	-12.7289	0.0000	202.2
191		Canisius	MAAC	-12.7502	0.0000	201.5
192		South Florida	BE	-12.8578	0.0000	153.7
193		Harvard	Ivy	-12.9405	0.0000	189.7
194		Northern Arizona	BSky	-12.9698	0.0000	212.7
195		Detroit	Horz	-12.9765	0.0000	192.0
196		Portland St.	BSky	-13.0203	0.0000	203.8
197		Yale	Ivy	-13.0621	0.0000	193.0
198		Furman	SC	-13.2490	0.0000	203.3
199		Columbia	Ivy	-13.3046	0.0000	202.2
200		Pacific	BW	-13.3274	0.0000	199.1
201		Weber St.	BSky	-13.4760	0.0000	208.2
202		Rider	MAAC	-13.5051	0.0000	210.8
203		Niagara	MAAC	-13.5550	0.0000	218.6
204		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-13.7597	0.0000	218.3
205		Brown	Ivy	-13.8317	0.0000	220.4
206		Oregon St.	P10	-13.8522	0.0000	158.4
207		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-13.8578	0.0000	194.6
208		Lehigh	Pat	-13.9033	0.0000	216.3
209		San Francisco	WCC	-14.0167	0.0000	203.3
210		Morehead St.	OVC	-14.1238	0.0000	231.0
211		New Orleans	SB	-14.2033	0.0000	217.4
212		Rutgers	BE	-14.2164	0.0000	168.2
213		Hartford	AE	-14.2188	0.0000	215.8
214		Central Connecticut	NEC	-14.2535	0.0000	227.7
215		Jacksonville	ASun	-14.2593	0.0000	223.3
216		Lamar	Slnd	-14.3691	0.0000	225.9
217		Bowling Green	MAC	-14.4142	0.0000	210.2
218		American	Pat	-14.5446	0.0000	216.6
219		MD Baltimore County	AE	-14.5660	0.0000	220.6
220		Montana	BSky	-14.8650	0.0000	225.5
221		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-15.0506	0.0000	233.9
222		Ball St.	MAC	-15.1297	0.0000	218.3
223		Cal Poly	BW	-15.1611	0.0000	235.5
224		Maine	AE	-15.2034	0.0000	230.3
225		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-15.2112	0.0000	239.3
226		Northeastern	CAA	-15.2593	0.0000	197.8
227		Murray St.	OVC	-15.3336	0.0000	236.5
228		Hampton	MEAC	-15.4116	0.0000	231.8
229		Florida A&M	MEAC	-15.4203	0.0000	239.8
230		Troy	SB	-15.5780	0.0000	231.9
231		Chattanooga	SC	-15.5934	0.0000	221.7
232		IUPUI	MCon	-15.7159	0.0000	237.7
233		Arizona St.	P10	-15.8340	0.0000	184.6
234		Tennessee St.	OVC	-15.8581	0.0000	234.3
235		Chicago St.	MCon	-15.9301	0.0000	218.6
236		Florida Atlantic	SB	-15.9789	0.0000	234.1
237		Monmouth	NEC	-16.0907	0.0000	236.1
238		Tulane	CUSA	-16.2010	0.0000	225.7
239		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-16.3187	0.0000	216.5
240		Texas Southern	SWAC	-16.4124	0.0000	248.5
241		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-16.4304	0.0000	242.2
242		Central Michigan	MAC	-16.6510	0.0000	241.9
243		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-16.7769	0.0000	246.6
244		Stony Brook	AE	-16.7948	0.0000	247.2
245		New Hampshire	AE	-16.8493	0.0000	256.0
246		La Salle	A10	-17.0204	0.0000	229.5
247		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-17.1105	0.0000	221.2
248		Georgia St.	CAA	-17.1630	0.0000	223.6
249		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-17.1642	0.0000	258.4
250		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-17.2102	0.0000	260.4
251		Mercer	ASun	-17.2601	0.0000	266.6
252		Georgia Southern	SC	-17.2936	0.0000	249.4
253		Campbell	ASun	-17.3039	0.0000	256.0
254		NC Wilmington	CAA	-17.4027	0.0000	229.2
255		Fairfield	MAAC	-17.5464	0.0000	240.1
256		Dartmouth	Ivy	-17.6780	0.0000	248.7
257		Quinnipiac	NEC	-17.7620	0.0000	270.4
258		Colorado	B12	-17.7824	0.0000	209.9
259		Pepperdine	WCC	-17.9244	0.0000	245.7
260		Texas Pan American	ind	-18.0633	0.0000	273.5
261		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-18.0910	0.0000	272.5
262		Duquesne	A10	-18.1226	0.0000	250.9
263		San Jose St.	WAC	-18.2631	0.0000	232.6
264		Binghamton	AE	-18.3010	0.0000	268.3
265		Stetson	ASun	-18.5392	0.0000	269.3
266		Western Carolina	SC	-18.6150	0.0000	256.9
267		Missouri Kansas City	MCon	-18.8906	0.0000	271.7
268		Grambling	SWAC	-18.9199	0.0000	286.0
269		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-18.9408	0.0000	263.0
270		Gardner Webb	ASun	-19.0292	0.0000	269.8
271		McNeese St.	Slnd	-19.1213	0.0000	274.0
272		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-19.3988	0.0000	275.5
273		Cleveland St.	Horz	-19.5145	0.0000	267.8
274		Lafayette	Pat	-19.5302	0.0000	269.7
275		Florida International	SB	-19.5957	0.0000	276.2
276		UC Davis	ind	-19.5989	0.0000	286.3
277		IUPU Fort Wayne	ind	-19.7840	0.0000	290.6
278		Savannah St.	ind	-19.8632	0.0000	281.4
279		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-19.8673	0.0000	293.4
280		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-19.8726	0.0000	281.4
281		Centenary	MCon	-19.9805	0.0000	278.7
282		Richmond	A10	-20.1208	0.0000	258.5
283		Howard	MEAC	-20.2297	0.0000	300.9
284		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-20.2497	0.0000	295.6
285		Liberty	BSth	-20.3141	0.0000	287.6
286		St. Francis NY	NEC	-20.4084	0.0000	286.3
287		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-20.4215	0.0000	298.3
288		James Madison	CAA	-20.4742	0.0000	277.0
289		St. Bonaventure	A10	-20.5257	0.0000	280.6
290		Radford	BSth	-20.5611	0.0000	291.1
291		Elon	SC	-20.7337	0.0000	279.5
292		Coppin St.	MEAC	-20.7758	0.0000	280.1
293		Montana St.	BSky	-20.8093	0.0000	303.2
294		Colgate	Pat	-20.8320	0.0000	282.0
295		Northern Illinois	MAC	-20.8413	0.0000	289.4
296		Morgan St.	MEAC	-20.8694	0.0000	309.4
297		Southern	SWAC	-20.8982	0.0000	300.9
298		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-20.9455	0.0000	298.8
299		Wagner	NEC	-20.9920	0.0000	301.4
300		Portland	WCC	-20.9938	0.0000	280.5
301		NC Asheville	BSth	-21.3149	0.0000	299.8
302		Wofford	SC	-21.3417	0.0000	291.1
303		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-21.3496	0.0000	308.6
304		Long Island	NEC	-21.4250	0.0000	311.5
305		Delaware	CAA	-21.4449	0.0000	280.2
306		The Citadel	SC	-21.4952	0.0000	282.9
307		Sacramento St.	BSky	-21.5933	0.0000	302.6
308		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-21.5969	0.0000	304.8
309		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-21.6771	0.0000	308.1
310		Alabama St.	SWAC	-21.7099	0.0000	305.6
311		Idaho	WAC	-21.8351	0.0000	275.1
312		Texas St.	Slnd	-22.0452	0.0000	305.1
313		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-22.0581	0.0000	303.3
314		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-22.1401	0.0000	306.7
315		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-22.1816	0.0000	323.6
316		South Dakota St.	ind	-22.4242	0.0000	317.3
317		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-22.4808	0.0000	307.2
318		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-22.6698	0.0000	328.3
319		Longwood	ind	-22.7359	0.0000	310.6
320		East Carolina	CUSA	-22.7840	0.0000	310.0
321		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-22.9972	0.0000	327.4
322		St. Peter's	MAAC	-23.0232	0.0000	318.4
323		Winston Salem St.	ind	-23.1328	0.0000	320.1
324		St. Francis PA	NEC	-23.2172	0.0000	323.8
325		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-23.3998	0.0000	327.2
326		Iona	MAAC	-23.4056	0.0000	319.3
327		UC Riverside	BW	-23.5170	0.0000	324.2
328		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-23.6605	0.0000	325.6
329		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-23.7395	0.0000	309.2
330		Western Illinois	MCon	-23.8740	0.0000	331.0
331		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-23.8889	0.0000	331.8
332		Denver	SB	-23.9080	0.0000	327.7
333		Charleston Southern	BSth	-23.9535	0.0000	327.6
334		Northern Colorado	BSky	-24.0102	0.0000	332.5
335		North Florida	ASun	-24.6229	0.0000	334.6
336		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-25.6663	0.0000	333.8

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, and to Jay Colemen for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com