Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Feb 23, 2008.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	9.6286	1.0000	2.3
2	X	Tennessee	SEC	9.3157	1.0000	1.1
3	X	Memphis	CUSA	8.7275	1.0000	2.8
4		Duke	ACC	8.2448	1.0000	4.1
5	X	UCLA	P10	8.1553	1.0000	6.1
6		Texas	B12	7.6530	1.0000	5.4
7	X	Xavier	A10	7.4297	1.0000	7.0
8	X	Kansas	B12	7.2988	1.0000	8.2
9		Indiana	B10	6.5548	1.0000	13.8
10		Georgetown	BE	5.8503	1.0000	10.6
11	X	Drake	MVC	5.4722	1.0000	12.1
12	X	Butler	Horz	5.3907	1.0000	18.9
13		Stanford	P10	5.1427	1.0000	20.0
14		Louisville	BE	5.0527	1.0000	10.5
15		Marquette	BE	4.8831	1.0000	16.2
16		Michigan St.	B10	4.8281	1.0000	17.5
17		Connecticut	BE	4.7896	1.0000	14.3
18		Washington St.	P10	4.7232	1.0000	22.0
19		Notre Dame	BE	4.6239	1.0000	25.4
20	X	Wisconsin	B10	4.4139	1.0000	12.3
21		Vanderbilt	SEC	4.2460	1.0000	12.9
22		Arizona	P10	4.0671	1.0000	18.5
23		Clemson	ACC	4.0228	1.0000	23.9
24		Southern California	P10	3.4688	0.9997	31.7
25	X	Kent St.	MAC	3.1585	0.9992	38.5
26		Miami FL	ACC	2.9446	0.9984	26.4
27		St. Mary's	WCC	2.8931	0.9981	33.3
28		Pittsburgh	BE	2.8599	0.9979	26.1
29		Oklahoma	B12	2.8349	0.9977	26.9
30	X	Gonzaga	WCC	2.7924	0.9974	31.3
31		Arkansas	SEC	2.5796	0.9951	30.1
32		Brigham Young	MWC	2.4688	0.9932	34.3
33		Purdue	B10	2.4146	0.9921	40.7
34	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	2.3445	0.9905	30.9
35	X	South Alabama	SB	2.0526	0.9799	42.1
36	X	West Virginia	BE	1.9517	0.9745	33.1
37		Kansas St.	B12	1.7751	0.9621	29.6
38		Ohio St.	B10	1.4100	0.9207	38.2
39		Texas A&M	B12	1.4088	0.9206	36.1
40		Mississippi St.	SEC	1.3699	0.9146	35.6
41		Baylor	B12	1.2972	0.9027	38.2
42		Massachusetts	A10	1.2287	0.8904	47.4
43	X	Davidson	SC	1.0703	0.8577	54.3
44	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	1.0455	0.8521	52.4
45		Southern Illinois	MVC	0.7588	0.7760	49.6
46		New Mexico	MWC	0.5918	0.7230	50.0
47		Illinois St.	MVC	0.5597	0.7122	51.6
48		Dayton	A10	0.3998	0.6553	40.5
49		Syracuse	BE	0.1410	0.5561	35.9
50		Kentucky	SEC	0.0692	0.5276	48.8
51		Mississippi	SEC	0.0518	0.5206	48.8
52		UAB	CUSA	-0.0438	0.4825	59.3
53		Florida	SEC	-0.1360	0.4459	49.2
54		Rhode Island	A10	-0.3428	0.3659	49.2
55	X	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-0.4289	0.3340	64.0
56		Creighton	MVC	-0.5298	0.2981	55.4
57		Saint Joseph's	A10	-0.5578	0.2885	55.2
58		Houston	CUSA	-0.5911	0.2772	55.7
59		Maryland	ACC	-0.6478	0.2586	49.2
60		Texas Tech	B12	-0.6925	0.2443	50.0
61		Western Kentucky	SB	-0.9408	0.1734	59.3
62		Wright St.	Horz	-0.9654	0.1672	68.3
63		George Mason	CAA	-1.1249	0.1303	75.2
64		Villanova	BE	-1.1518	0.1247	61.7
65		California	P10	-1.3011	0.0966	58.1
66		Oral Roberts	Sum	-1.4307	0.0763	74.0
67		Arizona St.	P10	-1.4919	0.0679	66.5
68		Oregon	P10	-1.5518	0.0604	60.9
69		Virginia Tech	ACC	-1.5670	0.0586	69.1
70		Wake Forest	ACC	-1.7858	0.0371	70.9
71		Ohio	MAC	-1.7868	0.0370	73.1
72		North Carolina St.	ACC	-1.8122	0.0350	69.8
73	X	IUPUI	Sum	-2.1068	0.0176	93.6
74		Florida St.	ACC	-2.2441	0.0124	63.9
75		Cincinnati	BE	-2.2717	0.0116	77.4
76	X	Cornell	Ivy	-2.6623	0.0039	92.2
77		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-2.7310	0.0032	94.6
78		Bradley	MVC	-2.7795	0.0027	78.5
79		San Diego St.	MWC	-2.8627	0.0021	72.9
80		Akron	MAC	-3.0366	0.0012	88.9
81		Missouri	B12	-3.1120	0.0009	71.9
82		Nebraska	B12	-3.2757	0.0005	86.7
83		Boise St.	WAC	-3.3734	0.0004	102.6
84		Cleveland St.	Horz	-3.3761	0.0004	87.0
85		Duquesne	A10	-3.3888	0.0004	80.9
86	X	Siena	MAAC	-3.4807	0.0003	90.7
87		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-3.6153	0.0001	95.9
88		Oklahoma St.	B12	-3.7235	0.0001	77.6
89		Temple	A10	-3.8464	0.0001	82.8
90		Utah St.	WAC	-3.8469	0.0001	104.0
91		Charlotte	A10	-3.8916	0.0000	93.4
92		Seton Hall	BE	-3.9039	0.0000	76.8
93	X	Belmont	ASun	-4.0365	0.0000	115.0
94		Georgia Tech	ACC	-4.0392	0.0000	88.4
95	X	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-4.1026	0.0000	95.7
96		Boston College	ACC	-4.3270	0.0000	82.2
97	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-4.5725	0.0000	118.8
98		Utah	MWC	-4.6767	0.0000	83.5
99		Old Dominion	CAA	-4.7370	0.0000	109.2
100	X	MD Baltimore County	AE	-4.8718	0.0000	113.3
101		Nevada	WAC	-4.8758	0.0000	99.5
102		American	Pat	-5.0922	0.0000	118.4
103		Miami OH	MAC	-5.1779	0.0000	92.8
104		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-5.1825	0.0000	114.9
105		Richmond	A10	-5.3542	0.0000	119.3
106		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-5.4026	0.0000	91.3
107		Minnesota	B10	-5.4145	0.0000	96.4
108		Wagner	NEC	-5.5577	0.0000	129.0
109		Georgia Southern	SC	-5.6301	0.0000	115.5
110	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-5.7020	0.0000	115.2
111		Niagara	MAAC	-5.7321	0.0000	119.3
112		Providence	BE	-5.9266	0.0000	93.0
113		Indiana St.	MVC	-6.0278	0.0000	112.0
114	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-6.0820	0.0000	133.1
115	X	Winthrop	BSth	-6.1293	0.0000	124.8
116		Rider	MAAC	-6.4277	0.0000	131.3
117		Valparaiso	Horz	-6.5145	0.0000	124.0
118		Washington	P10	-6.5194	0.0000	95.9
119		Marshall	CUSA	-6.5315	0.0000	112.6
120	X	Portland St.	BSky	-6.6929	0.0000	145.8
121		San Diego	WCC	-6.7147	0.0000	109.7
122		Middle Tennessee	SB	-6.7184	0.0000	123.9
123		South Carolina	SEC	-6.7784	0.0000	100.8
124		Georgia	SEC	-6.8099	0.0000	107.5
125		North Texas	SB	-6.9066	0.0000	140.8
126	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-6.9391	0.0000	123.7
127		Western Michigan	MAC	-7.0737	0.0000	144.6
128		St. Louis	A10	-7.1790	0.0000	109.2
129		Alabama	SEC	-7.2329	0.0000	95.1
130		Chattanooga	SC	-7.4058	0.0000	124.6
131		Pacific	BW	-7.5053	0.0000	144.8
132		Northern Iowa	MVC	-7.6029	0.0000	132.9
133		NC Wilmington	CAA	-7.7128	0.0000	146.1
134		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-7.7850	0.0000	140.3
135		Lamar	Slnd	-7.8080	0.0000	144.7
136		Virginia	ACC	-7.9566	0.0000	108.1
137		Central Florida	CUSA	-8.0716	0.0000	130.0
138		Brown	Ivy	-8.0867	0.0000	137.0
139		Northern Arizona	BSky	-8.1711	0.0000	154.7
140	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-8.1742	0.0000	156.9
141		Fordham	A10	-8.2940	0.0000	135.1
142		Tulsa	CUSA	-8.3756	0.0000	139.3
143		Illinois	B10	-8.4215	0.0000	121.7
144		Sacred Heart	NEC	-8.4639	0.0000	164.2
145		Loyola MD	MAAC	-8.6228	0.0000	163.8
146		NC Asheville	BSth	-8.6508	0.0000	158.9
147		Appalachian St.	SC	-8.6695	0.0000	158.9
148		Hampton	MEAC	-8.7709	0.0000	158.6
149		Marist	MAAC	-8.8026	0.0000	139.9
150		Iowa St.	B12	-8.9407	0.0000	126.2
151		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-9.2046	0.0000	142.2
152		Penn St.	B10	-9.3517	0.0000	137.4
153		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-9.4569	0.0000	152.9
154		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-9.4645	0.0000	151.5
155		Missouri St.	MVC	-9.5873	0.0000	127.5
156		NC Greensboro	SC	-9.6282	0.0000	157.7
157		St. John's	BE	-9.9817	0.0000	129.7
158		Oakland	Sum	-9.9897	0.0000	172.9
159		Lafayette	Pat	-10.0596	0.0000	165.2
160		Auburn	SEC	-10.1099	0.0000	136.3
161		Fairfield	MAAC	-10.1468	0.0000	170.4
162		Michigan	B10	-10.2651	0.0000	149.0
163		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-10.4473	0.0000	167.2
164		Tulane	CUSA	-10.5350	0.0000	152.8
165		New Orleans	SB	-10.6486	0.0000	167.4
166		DePaul	BE	-10.6599	0.0000	143.3
167		William & Mary	CAA	-10.8415	0.0000	175.5
168		Iowa	B10	-10.8818	0.0000	156.8
169		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-10.8975	0.0000	168.3
170		Murray St.	OVC	-10.9277	0.0000	185.9
171		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-10.9583	0.0000	184.7
172		Jacksonville	ASun	-11.0582	0.0000	186.3
173		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-11.0641	0.0000	171.7
174		South Florida	BE	-11.1917	0.0000	148.1
175		UC Irvine	BW	-11.4762	0.0000	177.1
176		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-11.6724	0.0000	186.0
177		Delaware	CAA	-11.8040	0.0000	180.1
178		Quinnipiac	NEC	-11.8628	0.0000	199.6
179		Air Force	MWC	-11.9919	0.0000	163.0
180		Yale	Ivy	-11.9954	0.0000	185.6
181		La Salle	A10	-12.1548	0.0000	181.0
182		Bucknell	Pat	-12.1594	0.0000	193.0
183		Hartford	AE	-12.2181	0.0000	197.1
184		Columbia	Ivy	-12.2848	0.0000	193.7
185		Central Connecticut	NEC	-12.3086	0.0000	201.2
186		Colorado	B12	-12.3882	0.0000	159.2
187		Navy	Pat	-12.4291	0.0000	205.6
188		Santa Clara	WCC	-12.5570	0.0000	182.8
189		Weber St.	BSky	-12.6398	0.0000	201.8
190		Gardner Webb	ASun	-12.6519	0.0000	210.0
191		George Washington	A10	-12.6999	0.0000	172.8
192		Texas Christian	MWC	-12.8487	0.0000	175.6
193		Central Michigan	MAC	-13.0207	0.0000	197.0
194		Colgate	Pat	-13.1107	0.0000	204.8
195		San Jose St.	WAC	-13.1352	0.0000	203.2
196		Long Island	NEC	-13.2689	0.0000	205.0
197		Montana St.	BSky	-13.3739	0.0000	206.0
198		Bowling Green	MAC	-13.3946	0.0000	192.2
199		Vermont	AE	-13.4356	0.0000	213.1
200		Northeastern	CAA	-13.4380	0.0000	190.1
201		Louisiana St.	SEC	-13.5471	0.0000	167.3
202		Fresno St.	WAC	-13.6314	0.0000	189.5
203		James Madison	CAA	-13.6541	0.0000	199.0
204		Delaware St.	MEAC	-13.6979	0.0000	212.4
205		Albany	AE	-13.7104	0.0000	220.1
206		Wofford	SC	-13.7309	0.0000	205.0
207		Wichita St.	MVC	-13.8689	0.0000	176.7
208		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-14.0144	0.0000	214.2
209	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-14.0790	0.0000	238.4
210		Toledo	MAC	-14.1677	0.0000	204.1
211		College of Charleston	SC	-14.1961	0.0000	202.8
212		Iona	MAAC	-14.2749	0.0000	218.2
213		Hawaii	WAC	-14.3712	0.0000	217.6
214		Morehead St.	OVC	-14.4435	0.0000	230.2
215		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-14.4852	0.0000	212.7
216		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-14.6067	0.0000	214.2
217		Binghamton	AE	-14.7540	0.0000	232.6
218		Rutgers	BE	-14.7676	0.0000	188.4
219		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-15.0277	0.0000	226.0
220		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-15.0830	0.0000	234.0
221		Hofstra	CAA	-15.1178	0.0000	218.4
222		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-15.1325	0.0000	235.9
223		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-15.1744	0.0000	229.2
224		Cal Poly	BW	-15.1815	0.0000	213.7
225		Montana	BSky	-15.3498	0.0000	231.6
226		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-15.3971	0.0000	219.5
227		North Dakota St.	Sum	-15.5363	0.0000	225.6
228		Youngstown St.	Horz	-15.6562	0.0000	212.1
229		Lipscomb	ASun	-15.7311	0.0000	243.9
230		Towson	CAA	-15.7407	0.0000	225.9
231		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-15.8145	0.0000	238.1
232		Lehigh	Pat	-15.8788	0.0000	239.2
233		Chicago St.	ind	-16.0761	0.0000	235.4
234		Denver	SB	-16.1568	0.0000	239.9
235		Boston University	AE	-16.3397	0.0000	246.6
236		Pepperdine	WCC	-16.5406	0.0000	218.3
237		Wyoming	MWC	-16.5483	0.0000	204.7
238		Florida Atlantic	SB	-16.5715	0.0000	226.1
239		Army	Pat	-16.6066	0.0000	247.4
240		Drexel	CAA	-16.6092	0.0000	220.6
241		Northwestern	B10	-16.8105	0.0000	207.9
242		East Carolina	CUSA	-16.8816	0.0000	243.5
243		Elon	SC	-16.9409	0.0000	243.2
244		Florida International	SB	-16.9464	0.0000	223.8
245		Evansville	MVC	-16.9925	0.0000	219.9
246		Troy	SB	-17.0009	0.0000	225.0
247		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-17.0040	0.0000	275.5
248		Utah Valley St.	ind	-17.1149	0.0000	266.6
249		Tennessee St.	OVC	-17.1804	0.0000	259.3
250		Liberty	BSth	-17.3397	0.0000	256.1
251		Stetson	ASun	-17.3583	0.0000	258.1
252		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-17.4839	0.0000	258.3
253		High Point	BSth	-17.5967	0.0000	257.7
254		Texas St.	Slnd	-17.8789	0.0000	260.3
255		Southern Utah	Sum	-17.9424	0.0000	242.6
256		Samford	OVC	-18.0547	0.0000	272.2
257		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-18.0791	0.0000	247.8
258		Manhattan	MAAC	-18.1570	0.0000	268.1
259		Savannah St.	ind	-18.3233	0.0000	270.6
260		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-18.3299	0.0000	243.3
261		McNeese St.	Slnd	-18.4026	0.0000	263.2
262		Idaho St.	BSky	-18.6077	0.0000	272.6
263		Western Illinois	Sum	-18.6949	0.0000	259.4
264		Jackson St.	SWAC	-18.9555	0.0000	275.6
265		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-19.0306	0.0000	285.3
266		Texas Pan American	ind	-19.0483	0.0000	298.5
267		Northern Illinois	MAC	-19.1180	0.0000	258.4
268		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-19.1426	0.0000	283.0
269		Northern Colorado	BSky	-19.3085	0.0000	284.4
270		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-19.3727	0.0000	273.6
271		Eastern Washington	BSky	-19.4619	0.0000	275.8
272		St. Bonaventure	A10	-19.4873	0.0000	242.6
273		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-19.7402	0.0000	258.0
274		Harvard	Ivy	-19.7421	0.0000	279.2
275		Detroit	Horz	-19.7432	0.0000	267.1
276		Buffalo	MAC	-19.7509	0.0000	251.5
277		San Francisco	WCC	-19.8398	0.0000	261.6
278		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-19.8683	0.0000	288.3
279		Georgia St.	CAA	-20.0243	0.0000	273.9
280		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-20.0345	0.0000	269.7
281		Florida A&M	MEAC	-20.0695	0.0000	282.8
282		Arkansas St.	SB	-20.0871	0.0000	281.6
283		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-20.0924	0.0000	290.9
284		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-20.2019	0.0000	283.9
285		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-20.2288	0.0000	279.5
286		Coppin St.	MEAC	-20.4028	0.0000	282.4
287		Western Carolina	SC	-20.6003	0.0000	281.0
288		Oregon St.	P10	-20.7341	0.0000	248.9
289		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-20.7353	0.0000	307.4
290		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-20.7565	0.0000	297.6
291		Ball St.	MAC	-20.7800	0.0000	273.8
292		Campbell	ASun	-20.8726	0.0000	305.3
293		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-20.9153	0.0000	301.8
294		Mercer	ASun	-21.0454	0.0000	312.6
295		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-21.1457	0.0000	285.3
296		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-21.1732	0.0000	308.7
297		Radford	BSth	-21.2193	0.0000	307.8
298		UC Riverside	BW	-21.2813	0.0000	277.1
299		Colorado St.	MWC	-21.5633	0.0000	255.3
300		New Hampshire	AE	-21.5745	0.0000	307.3
301		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-21.6330	0.0000	304.6
302		UC Davis	BW	-21.6730	0.0000	295.5
303		Centenary	Sum	-21.6951	0.0000	296.1
304		St. Francis NY	NEC	-21.6955	0.0000	306.8
305		Furman	SC	-21.7777	0.0000	298.6
306		Monmouth	NEC	-21.9592	0.0000	308.3
307		St. Peter's	MAAC	-22.0269	0.0000	299.6
308		Southern	SWAC	-22.2590	0.0000	315.0
309		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-22.2758	0.0000	322.3
310		Rice	CUSA	-22.2919	0.0000	284.2
311		Dartmouth	Ivy	-22.4650	0.0000	312.5
312		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-22.4832	0.0000	317.3
313		Princeton	Ivy	-22.4934	0.0000	313.2
314		St. Francis PA	NEC	-22.5145	0.0000	315.1
315		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-22.6862	0.0000	306.8
316		Longwood	ind	-22.6939	0.0000	325.5
317		North Carolina Central	ind	-22.8141	0.0000	306.4
318		Portland	WCC	-23.1260	0.0000	296.6
319		Long Beach St.	BW	-23.1869	0.0000	309.4
320		Idaho	WAC	-23.2252	0.0000	313.4
321		South Dakota St.	Sum	-23.2587	0.0000	314.7
322		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-23.2702	0.0000	331.2
323		Charleston Southern	BSth	-23.2766	0.0000	326.9
324		Grambling	SWAC	-23.5236	0.0000	332.5
325		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.5824	0.0000	336.9
326		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-23.6266	0.0000	327.8
327		Maine	AE	-23.6672	0.0000	328.7
328		Canisius	MAAC	-23.6780	0.0000	317.3
329		Texas Southern	SWAC	-23.8061	0.0000	322.9
330		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-23.9125	0.0000	338.3
331		Stony Brook	AE	-23.9249	0.0000	327.8
332		Sacramento St.	BSky	-24.2094	0.0000	332.7
333		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-24.2449	0.0000	339.0
334		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-24.3451	0.0000	302.9
335		Howard	MEAC	-24.3958	0.0000	329.8
336		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-24.4802	0.0000	341.0
337		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-24.6127	0.0000	324.0
338		Presbyterian	ind	-24.8991	0.0000	329.6
339		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-25.2685	0.0000	336.0
340		The Citadel	SC	-25.5991	0.0000	331.9
341		North Florida	ASun	-25.6429	0.0000	339.2

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com