Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Tournament Projections Archive

Through games of Dec 23, 2008.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	9.2118	1.0000	2.3
2		Duke	ACC	8.4903	1.0000	2.4
3	X	Pittsburgh	BE	8.2589	1.0000	3.2
4	X	Oklahoma	B12	7.5127	1.0000	5.7
5		Georgetown	BE	6.7645	1.0000	6.0
6		Clemson	ACC	6.6390	1.0000	8.2
7		Connecticut	BE	6.2171	1.0000	9.7
8		Ohio St.	B10	5.7159	1.0000	13.3
9		West Virginia	BE	5.6957	1.0000	12.6
10		Illinois	B10	5.4444	1.0000	14.5
11	X	Purdue	B10	5.4209	1.0000	18.8
12	X	Tennessee	SEC	5.2378	1.0000	10.5
13		Texas	B12	5.0888	1.0000	14.9
14	X	Xavier	A10	4.9959	1.0000	18.9
15	X	Butler	Horz	4.8649	1.0000	22.1
16		Kansas	B12	4.5349	1.0000	18.6
17		Louisville	BE	4.3409	1.0000	18.1
18	X	Memphis	CUSA	4.2778	1.0000	20.1
19		Wake Forest	ACC	4.2527	1.0000	19.5
20		Missouri	B12	3.9042	1.0000	23.1
21		Syracuse	BE	3.6834	0.9999	19.4
22	X	UCLA	P10	3.5712	0.9998	29.0
23		Villanova	BE	3.5598	0.9998	25.8
24		Kentucky	SEC	3.4972	0.9998	27.2
25	X	Gonzaga	WCC	3.4299	0.9997	35.1
26		Michigan St.	B10	3.3630	0.9996	25.1
27	X	Brigham Young	MWC	2.9992	0.9986	29.9
28		Arizona St.	P10	2.9696	0.9985	29.0
29		Baylor	B12	2.9590	0.9985	26.2
30		Maryland	ACC	2.7906	0.9974	26.3
31		Notre Dame	BE	2.0242	0.9785	38.0
32	X	Creighton	MVC	1.8349	0.9667	47.8
33		Michigan	B10	1.7740	0.9620	34.5
34		Kansas St.	B12	1.7140	0.9567	44.0
35		Florida	SEC	1.6349	0.9490	40.4
36	X	Davidson	SC	1.6224	0.9476	56.1
37		Dayton	A10	1.5829	0.9433	39.8
38	X	Utah St.	WAC	1.4260	0.9231	43.4
39		Oklahoma St.	B12	1.2485	0.8941	31.9
40		Northwestern	B10	1.0760	0.8590	40.8
41		Arizona	P10	0.4966	0.6903	42.7
42		Miami FL	ACC	0.4845	0.6860	47.8
43		California	P10	0.4191	0.6624	44.4
44		Boston College	ACC	0.3772	0.6470	49.2
45		Utah	MWC	0.2211	0.5875	46.5
46		UAB	CUSA	0.1789	0.5710	48.6
47		Washington	P10	0.1472	0.5585	45.2
48		Houston	CUSA	0.0560	0.5223	61.8
49		Texas A&M	B12	0.0515	0.5205	47.7
50		Niagara	MAAC	0.0110	0.5044	58.7
51		Stanford	P10	-0.0308	0.4877	49.7
52		Marquette	BE	-0.1313	0.4478	52.5
53		Minnesota	B10	-0.1721	0.4317	47.2
54		Wisconsin	B10	-0.2079	0.4177	47.5
55		Cincinnati	BE	-0.2799	0.3898	53.9
56	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-0.3775	0.3529	65.7
57	X	Siena	MAAC	-0.5656	0.2858	61.0
58		Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	-0.7122	0.2382	52.7
59		St. Mary's	WCC	-0.7565	0.2247	67.2
60		Florida St.	ACC	-0.9863	0.1620	51.4
61		Washington St.	P10	-1.0830	0.1394	59.5
62		South Carolina	SEC	-1.1555	0.1239	59.5
63		Illinois St.	MVC	-1.2662	0.1027	66.7
64		Vanderbilt	SEC	-1.3570	0.0874	59.8
65		San Diego St.	MWC	-1.4554	0.0728	54.3
66	X	Miami OH	MAC	-1.4750	0.0701	72.7
67		Temple	A10	-1.5816	0.0569	69.9
68		Southern California	P10	-1.5884	0.0561	61.4
69		Evansville	MVC	-1.6674	0.0477	65.2
70		Rhode Island	A10	-1.6835	0.0461	74.4
71		George Mason	CAA	-1.7281	0.0420	75.8
72		Texas Tech	B12	-1.7689	0.0385	56.1
73	X	Western Kentucky	SB	-1.8635	0.0312	75.6
74		Cleveland St.	Horz	-1.8788	0.0301	72.3
75		Louisiana St.	SEC	-2.2585	0.0120	71.0
76	X	Belmont	ASun	-2.4853	0.0065	96.1
77		Iowa	B10	-2.6441	0.0041	72.7
78		Mississippi	SEC	-2.8972	0.0019	64.9
79		Virginia Tech	ACC	-2.9508	0.0016	67.9
80		Tulsa	CUSA	-2.9821	0.0014	87.9
81		Georgia Tech	ACC	-3.0959	0.0010	74.6
82		New Mexico	MWC	-3.1607	0.0008	77.4
83		Nebraska	B12	-3.2490	0.0006	80.2
84		Arkansas	SEC	-3.2712	0.0005	74.6
85		Drake	MVC	-3.7000	0.0001	88.7
86		Saint Joseph's	A10	-3.7696	0.0001	87.5
87		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-3.9525	0.0000	104.0
88		Penn St.	B10	-4.1571	0.0000	82.5
89		Akron	MAC	-4.1934	0.0000	100.9
90		College of Charleston	SC	-4.1972	0.0000	106.5
91		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-4.2563	0.0000	86.8
92	X	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-4.3960	0.0000	107.2
93		North Carolina St.	ACC	-4.4090	0.0000	82.3
94		Mississippi St.	SEC	-4.4140	0.0000	85.5
95		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-4.4724	0.0000	113.2
96	X	Vermont	AE	-4.5232	0.0000	105.4
97		Seton Hall	BE	-4.8589	0.0000	98.4
98		Nevada	WAC	-5.1538	0.0000	105.3
99		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-5.2773	0.0000	120.0
100		Auburn	SEC	-5.3619	0.0000	94.7
101		Providence	BE	-5.4518	0.0000	92.7
102		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-5.4674	0.0000	95.6
103	X	Portland St.	BSky	-5.5655	0.0000	126.6
104		Hofstra	CAA	-5.5972	0.0000	115.8
105		Albany	AE	-5.7999	0.0000	117.0
106		George Washington	A10	-5.9280	0.0000	106.7
107		Southern Illinois	MVC	-5.9286	0.0000	104.8
108		Middle Tennessee	SB	-5.9408	0.0000	121.3
109		Fairfield	MAAC	-5.9572	0.0000	110.5
110		Virginia	ACC	-6.0106	0.0000	89.8
111		Massachusetts	A10	-6.2525	0.0000	112.2
112		Northeastern	CAA	-6.2749	0.0000	120.0
113		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-6.3776	0.0000	130.3
114		Alabama	SEC	-6.4700	0.0000	105.1
115		Arkansas St.	SB	-6.5376	0.0000	128.4
116		Old Dominion	CAA	-6.6562	0.0000	128.0
117		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-6.8974	0.0000	126.4
118		North Texas	SB	-6.9953	0.0000	124.2
119		St. John's	BE	-7.1307	0.0000	104.1
120	X	North Dakota St.	Sum	-7.1888	0.0000	140.2
121		Wichita St.	MVC	-7.2996	0.0000	125.5
122		Charlotte	A10	-7.3582	0.0000	128.7
123	X	American	Pat	-7.3679	0.0000	139.5
124		Murray St.	OVC	-7.3949	0.0000	147.6
125		New Mexico St.	WAC	-7.5775	0.0000	131.3
126		Missouri St.	MVC	-7.5908	0.0000	119.7
127		DePaul	BE	-7.6561	0.0000	106.8
128		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-7.7217	0.0000	155.6
129	X	Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-7.7311	0.0000	147.4
130		Boston University	AE	-7.8851	0.0000	145.0
131		Duquesne	A10	-8.1549	0.0000	137.6
132		Lamar	Slnd	-8.2513	0.0000	153.4
133		St. Louis	A10	-8.3695	0.0000	136.3
134		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-8.4115	0.0000	145.4
135	X	Liberty	BSth	-8.4457	0.0000	165.8
136		Hawaii	WAC	-8.4580	0.0000	139.5
137		San Jose St.	WAC	-8.5171	0.0000	141.3
138		Austin Peay	OVC	-8.5518	0.0000	151.6
139		Richmond	A10	-8.5987	0.0000	137.6
140		South Alabama	SB	-8.6004	0.0000	146.8
141		Wright St.	Horz	-8.6776	0.0000	142.7
142		Manhattan	MAAC	-8.7395	0.0000	146.9
143		Jacksonville	ASun	-8.7647	0.0000	159.4
144	X	Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-8.7978	0.0000	156.4
145	X	Pacific	BW	-8.8207	0.0000	152.8
146		East Carolina	CUSA	-8.8694	0.0000	144.2
147		Binghamton	AE	-8.8889	0.0000	157.6
148		Buffalo	MAC	-8.9240	0.0000	147.0
149		Oregon	P10	-8.9635	0.0000	112.4
150		Marshall	CUSA	-9.0758	0.0000	135.3
151		La Salle	A10	-9.0944	0.0000	134.4
152		Ohio	MAC	-9.1417	0.0000	153.9
153		Navy	Pat	-9.2515	0.0000	162.8
154	X	Cornell	Ivy	-9.3819	0.0000	160.6
155		Boise St.	WAC	-9.3824	0.0000	143.6
156		Iona	MAAC	-9.4106	0.0000	151.5
157		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-9.4216	0.0000	161.2
158		Bradley	MVC	-9.5169	0.0000	138.8
159		Central Connecticut	NEC	-9.6530	0.0000	168.3
160		Georgia	SEC	-9.8060	0.0000	127.6
161		Texas Christian	MWC	-9.9463	0.0000	139.5
162		Air Force	MWC	-10.0383	0.0000	141.7
163		MD Baltimore County	AE	-10.1453	0.0000	172.3
164		Oakland	Sum	-10.4713	0.0000	170.0
165		Utah Valley	ind	-10.5037	0.0000	184.3
166		Rutgers	BE	-10.5110	0.0000	144.7
167		Appalachian St.	SC	-10.6823	0.0000	179.7
168		Western Carolina	SC	-10.7844	0.0000	179.6
169		Lehigh	Pat	-10.8389	0.0000	185.5
170		Rider	MAAC	-10.9157	0.0000	171.9
171		Long Beach St.	BW	-10.9826	0.0000	182.3
172		Mercer	ASun	-11.0384	0.0000	176.2
173		Robert Morris	NEC	-11.0824	0.0000	186.8
174		Iowa St.	B12	-11.2994	0.0000	146.0
175		Kent St.	MAC	-11.3873	0.0000	171.2
176		Colorado	B12	-11.5857	0.0000	153.6
177		Presbyterian	BSth	-11.6593	0.0000	188.1
178		Montana St.	BSky	-11.7296	0.0000	191.0
179		Portland	WCC	-11.8089	0.0000	186.2
180		Oral Roberts	Sum	-11.8565	0.0000	191.2
181		Wofford	SC	-11.9006	0.0000	181.9
182		Indiana	B10	-11.9531	0.0000	132.3
183		Georgia Southern	SC	-11.9994	0.0000	189.6
184		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-12.0449	0.0000	181.1
185		Idaho	WAC	-12.0667	0.0000	178.3
186		Bowling Green	MAC	-12.1091	0.0000	187.8
187		James Madison	CAA	-12.2442	0.0000	183.6
188		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-12.3002	0.0000	196.6
189		South Florida	BE	-12.4548	0.0000	162.3
190		San Francisco	WCC	-12.5783	0.0000	180.9
191		Weber St.	BSky	-12.6812	0.0000	186.4
192	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-12.7130	0.0000	207.5
193		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-12.7516	0.0000	201.1
194		Fresno St.	WAC	-12.8065	0.0000	181.7
195		Northern Iowa	MVC	-13.2120	0.0000	178.3
196		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-13.2757	0.0000	205.6
197		IUPUI	Sum	-13.2970	0.0000	217.1
198		Central Florida	CUSA	-13.3009	0.0000	187.6
199		Delaware	CAA	-13.3603	0.0000	196.2
200		Drexel	CAA	-13.3819	0.0000	194.0
201		Gardner Webb	BSth	-13.3832	0.0000	211.4
202		Santa Clara	WCC	-13.4455	0.0000	192.1
203		St. Bonaventure	A10	-13.6791	0.0000	193.2
204		Wyoming	MWC	-13.9886	0.0000	178.5
205		Eastern Washington	BSky	-14.0171	0.0000	215.2
206		Hampton	MEAC	-14.1783	0.0000	228.9
207		Holy Cross	Pat	-14.2208	0.0000	228.5
208		San Diego	WCC	-14.2619	0.0000	196.3
209		Savannah St.	ind	-14.2853	0.0000	211.6
210		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-14.5322	0.0000	206.6
211		Stony Brook	AE	-14.5977	0.0000	227.3
212		Wagner	NEC	-14.7489	0.0000	230.1
213		Coppin St.	MEAC	-14.8213	0.0000	231.2
214		Northern Arizona	BSky	-14.8879	0.0000	224.9
215		Ball St.	MAC	-14.9124	0.0000	223.1
216		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-14.9203	0.0000	222.7
217		Colorado St.	MWC	-14.9265	0.0000	192.5
218		McNeese St.	Slnd	-14.9486	0.0000	228.7
219		Loyola MD	MAAC	-14.9995	0.0000	199.5
220		Bucknell	Pat	-15.0313	0.0000	232.8
221		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-15.0520	0.0000	232.0
222		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-15.1790	0.0000	233.0
223		William & Mary	CAA	-15.2004	0.0000	222.2
224		Stetson	ASun	-15.2194	0.0000	219.4
225		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-15.3089	0.0000	239.2
226		Towson	CAA	-15.3316	0.0000	211.6
227		Tulane	CUSA	-15.3428	0.0000	206.5
228		Chattanooga	SC	-15.3462	0.0000	221.2
229		Harvard	Ivy	-15.6135	0.0000	242.3
230		Montana	BSky	-15.6325	0.0000	240.7
231		Southern Utah	Sum	-15.6667	0.0000	238.5
232		Quinnipiac	NEC	-15.7126	0.0000	247.5
233		UC Riverside	BW	-15.7383	0.0000	238.6
234		Cal Poly	BW	-15.8122	0.0000	235.7
235		Florida Atlantic	SB	-15.8153	0.0000	217.1
236		Rice	CUSA	-15.8480	0.0000	215.2
237		Long Island	NEC	-15.9214	0.0000	253.3
238		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-15.9416	0.0000	229.5
239		Idaho St.	BSky	-15.9919	0.0000	228.6
240		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-16.0853	0.0000	235.6
241		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-16.1440	0.0000	244.1
242		Marist	MAAC	-16.2283	0.0000	226.4
243		Denver	SB	-16.3462	0.0000	250.3
244		Sacred Heart	NEC	-16.5652	0.0000	249.7
245		Florida International	SB	-16.5995	0.0000	224.8
246		Canisius	MAAC	-16.6304	0.0000	222.8
247		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-16.7331	0.0000	240.7
248		Western Michigan	MAC	-16.8533	0.0000	248.7
249		Brown	Ivy	-16.8666	0.0000	246.9
250		Troy	SB	-16.8715	0.0000	236.3
251		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-16.9896	0.0000	259.7
252		Detroit	Horz	-17.2300	0.0000	242.1
253		St. Francis NY	NEC	-17.2779	0.0000	259.7
254		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-17.2816	0.0000	254.0
255		Northern Colorado	BSky	-17.3054	0.0000	257.2
256		Jackson St.	SWAC	-17.3940	0.0000	265.2
257		Texas St.	Slnd	-17.3941	0.0000	265.6
258		Chicago St.	ind	-17.4365	0.0000	265.5
259		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-17.5324	0.0000	244.1
260		Valparaiso	Horz	-17.5601	0.0000	245.9
261		New Orleans	SB	-17.6167	0.0000	255.1
262		Maine	AE	-17.6625	0.0000	254.5
263		NC Asheville	BSth	-17.8263	0.0000	269.4
264		Hartford	AE	-17.8371	0.0000	245.4
265		Lipscomb	ASun	-17.8388	0.0000	268.4
266	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-18.0010	0.0000	275.5
267		Elon	SC	-18.1431	0.0000	254.4
268		Delaware St.	MEAC	-18.1474	0.0000	268.3
269		Campbell	ASun	-18.2709	0.0000	270.0
270		Yale	Ivy	-18.3963	0.0000	274.4
271		Toledo	MAC	-18.4728	0.0000	260.2
272		Oregon St.	P10	-18.6243	0.0000	220.5
273		Columbia	Ivy	-18.7809	0.0000	277.5
274		St. Francis PA	NEC	-18.7950	0.0000	272.2
275		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-18.9501	0.0000	277.2
276		Indiana St.	MVC	-19.1705	0.0000	247.7
277		Georgia St.	CAA	-19.2436	0.0000	265.7
278		South Dakota St.	Sum	-19.2965	0.0000	278.3
279		Samford	SC	-19.5815	0.0000	276.6
280		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-19.5919	0.0000	292.2
281		UC Davis	BW	-19.6150	0.0000	289.9
282		Morehead St.	OVC	-19.6455	0.0000	281.8
283		Winthrop	BSth	-19.6828	0.0000	275.8
284		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-19.7095	0.0000	251.5
285		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-19.7472	0.0000	279.3
286		New Hampshire	AE	-19.7774	0.0000	281.9
287		Princeton	Ivy	-19.9297	0.0000	296.3
288		Longwood	ind	-20.0700	0.0000	292.4
289		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-20.1121	0.0000	279.8
290		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-20.1742	0.0000	301.7
291		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-20.1744	0.0000	283.9
292		Radford	BSth	-20.2378	0.0000	293.7
293		Army	Pat	-20.3843	0.0000	299.6
294		Lafayette	Pat	-20.4202	0.0000	295.9
295		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-20.4427	0.0000	302.1
296		Central Michigan	MAC	-20.4576	0.0000	287.3
297		Tennessee St.	OVC	-20.6785	0.0000	292.7
298		The Citadel	SC	-20.8390	0.0000	281.4
299		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-20.9084	0.0000	292.0
300		St. Peter's	MAAC	-20.9187	0.0000	283.1
301		NC Wilmington	CAA	-20.9313	0.0000	275.0
302		Texas Pan American	ind	-21.0776	0.0000	308.9
303		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-21.0982	0.0000	315.2
304		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-21.1655	0.0000	306.5
305		Youngstown St.	Horz	-21.1795	0.0000	287.0
306		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-21.1894	0.0000	305.4
307		Charleston Southern	BSth	-21.1977	0.0000	297.3
308		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-21.2383	0.0000	305.1
309		UC Irvine	BW	-21.4269	0.0000	297.0
310		Colgate	Pat	-21.5879	0.0000	309.9
311		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-21.6978	0.0000	310.5
312		Bryant	ind	-21.8439	0.0000	315.5
313		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-21.9575	0.0000	295.3
314		Northern Illinois	MAC	-21.9773	0.0000	313.8
315		Fordham	A10	-22.1612	0.0000	287.2
316		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-22.3875	0.0000	302.0
317		Texas Southern	SWAC	-22.4522	0.0000	313.3
318		Florida A&M	MEAC	-22.5778	0.0000	305.3
319		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-22.5786	0.0000	314.5
320		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-22.7865	0.0000	313.2
321		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-22.7883	0.0000	327.7
322		Houston Baptist	ind	-23.0963	0.0000	323.4
323		Dartmouth	Ivy	-23.2775	0.0000	326.8
324		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-23.2943	0.0000	320.3
325		Monmouth	NEC	-23.3847	0.0000	320.4
326		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-23.4039	0.0000	316.0
327		Sacramento St.	BSky	-23.5917	0.0000	328.7
328		Centenary	Sum	-23.5944	0.0000	316.3
329		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-23.7107	0.0000	336.8
330		Western Illinois	Sum	-23.7483	0.0000	328.6
331		Southern	SWAC	-23.7790	0.0000	338.5
332		Howard	MEAC	-23.8276	0.0000	332.6
333		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-23.9415	0.0000	322.1
334		High Point	BSth	-24.3000	0.0000	334.8
335		Pepperdine	WCC	-24.4087	0.0000	317.2
336		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-24.4093	0.0000	341.9
337		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-24.4185	0.0000	339.7
338		Furman	SC	-24.5453	0.0000	322.8
339		NC Greensboro	SC	-24.8211	0.0000	324.6
340		Grambling	SWAC	-25.0353	0.0000	341.9
341		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-25.0585	0.0000	323.2
342		North Florida	ASun	-25.4036	0.0000	334.2
343		North Carolina Central	ind	-25.7543	0.0000	337.6

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com