Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive

Through games of Dec 23, 2006.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	UCLA	P10	8.3680	1.0000	2.3
2		Arizona	P10	8.0722	1.0000	3.6
3	X	North Carolina	ACC	7.3516	1.0000	3.8
4		Duke	ACC	7.3075	1.0000	3.3
5	X	Florida	SEC	7.0384	1.0000	9.4
6		Oregon	P10	6.0883	1.0000	12.7
7		Villanova	BE	5.5220	1.0000	7.0
8	X	Kansas	B12	5.2751	1.0000	25.2
9		Tennessee	SEC	5.2286	1.0000	11.4
10	X	Ohio St.	B10	5.1997	1.0000	14.3
11	X	Butler	Horz	5.1548	1.0000	25.9
12		Kentucky	SEC	5.1356	1.0000	12.1
13		Connecticut	BE	4.8421	1.0000	21.3
14		Texas A&M	B12	4.8385	1.0000	19.4
15	X	Notre Dame	BE	4.6067	1.0000	26.2
16		Purdue	B10	4.5323	1.0000	24.6
17		Air Force	MWC	4.5063	1.0000	24.9
18		Clemson	ACC	4.4427	1.0000	17.6
19	X	Memphis	CUSA	4.3361	1.0000	23.0
20		Wisconsin	B10	4.1694	1.0000	24.9
21		Georgia Tech	ACC	4.1182	1.0000	23.8
22		Maryland	ACC	4.1098	1.0000	15.1
23		Georgia	SEC	4.0216	1.0000	24.6
24	X	Missouri St.	MVC	3.9380	1.0000	24.3
25		Oklahoma St.	B12	3.9102	1.0000	20.0
26		Alabama	SEC	3.8967	1.0000	20.2
27		Michigan St.	B10	3.8185	0.9999	20.3
28		Illinois	B10	3.7159	0.9999	20.9
29		Mississippi St.	SEC	3.5105	0.9998	26.0
30		Pittsburgh	BE	3.2548	0.9994	19.7
31		Drexel	CAA	3.1205	0.9991	38.9
32	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	2.9916	0.9986	28.2
33		Indiana	B10	2.6290	0.9957	31.1
34	X	Gonzaga	WCC	2.3459	0.9905	40.8
35	X	Nevada	WAC	2.3392	0.9903	39.8
36	X	Xavier	A10	1.7855	0.9629	45.5
37		Virginia Tech	ACC	1.7066	0.9561	39.6
38		Boston College	ACC	1.4947	0.9325	36.7
39		Wichita St.	MVC	1.4599	0.9278	46.4
40		Georgetown	BE	1.3795	0.9161	39.4
41		Marquette	BE	1.3781	0.9159	35.6
42		Southern Illinois	MVC	0.9738	0.8349	43.2
43	X	Western Kentucky	SB	0.8671	0.8071	52.6
44		Missouri	B12	0.7957	0.7869	40.5
45		Bradley	MVC	0.7297	0.7672	49.8
46		Oklahoma	B12	0.5798	0.7190	44.4
47		Syracuse	BE	0.4659	0.6794	41.7
48		Providence	BE	0.3488	0.6364	44.9
49	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.3108	0.6220	58.7
50		Texas	B12	0.1162	0.5463	53.9
51		West Virginia	BE	0.0138	0.5055	51.1
52		Arkansas	SEC	-0.0636	0.4746	46.2
53		Washington	P10	-0.1347	0.4464	48.6
54		Florida St.	ACC	-0.2194	0.4132	45.7
55		Washington St.	P10	-0.2586	0.3980	55.5
56		DePaul	BE	-0.2921	0.3851	50.6
57		Southern California	P10	-0.3689	0.3561	53.9
58		Louisiana St.	SEC	-0.4288	0.3340	51.3
59		San Diego St.	MWC	-0.6164	0.2688	56.0
60		Texas Tech	B12	-0.7500	0.2266	46.9
61		St. Louis	A10	-1.0968	0.1364	63.9
62		California	P10	-1.4535	0.0730	54.9
63		George Washington	A10	-1.6423	0.0503	72.4
64	X	Winthrop	BSth	-1.9169	0.0276	86.9
65		Michigan	B10	-2.0432	0.0205	62.6
66		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-2.1570	0.0155	72.6
67		Massachusetts	A10	-2.2478	0.0123	80.9
68		Creighton	MVC	-2.3822	0.0086	66.0
69		Nebraska	B12	-2.4079	0.0080	72.5
70		Seton Hall	BE	-2.4231	0.0077	64.9
71	X	Davidson	SC	-2.5598	0.0052	88.3
72		Brigham Young	MWC	-2.6610	0.0039	74.7
73		Old Dominion	CAA	-3.0641	0.0011	78.6
74	X	Pennsylvania	Ivy	-3.0797	0.0010	91.8
75		Dayton	A10	-3.0891	0.0010	75.4
76		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-3.3638	0.0004	84.4
77		Fresno St.	WAC	-3.4500	0.0003	94.6
78		Tulsa	CUSA	-3.4756	0.0003	81.6
79		Stanford	P10	-3.5072	0.0002	74.5
80		George Mason	CAA	-3.5998	0.0002	91.8
81		Santa Clara	WCC	-3.6154	0.0001	89.1
82	X	Belmont	ASun	-3.6581	0.0001	110.5
83		Kansas St.	B12	-3.6940	0.0001	78.1
84		Louisville	BE	-3.8178	0.0001	74.2
85		Houston	CUSA	-3.8263	0.0001	81.3
86		Appalachian St.	SC	-3.8755	0.0001	101.6
87	X	Akron	MAC	-3.8952	0.0000	104.2
88	X	Marist	MAAC	-3.9509	0.0000	110.9
89	X	UC Santa Barbara	BW	-4.1033	0.0000	108.2
90		Kent St.	MAC	-4.2222	0.0000	104.9
91		Virginia	ACC	-4.3269	0.0000	82.8
92		Illinois St.	MVC	-4.5463	0.0000	82.6
93		Mississippi	SEC	-4.6325	0.0000	77.9
94		Hawaii	WAC	-4.6622	0.0000	94.2
95		South Carolina	SEC	-4.7016	0.0000	82.2
96		UAB	CUSA	-4.7466	0.0000	98.4
97		Temple	A10	-4.7505	0.0000	93.5
98		New Mexico	MWC	-4.8249	0.0000	94.0
99		North Texas	SB	-4.8830	0.0000	121.5
100		Northwestern	B10	-4.9758	0.0000	94.4
101		Wake Forest	ACC	-5.0294	0.0000	91.6
102		Utah St.	WAC	-5.1360	0.0000	98.3
103		Cincinnati	BE	-5.2394	0.0000	89.8
104		New Mexico St.	WAC	-5.4079	0.0000	110.1
105		Vanderbilt	SEC	-5.6549	0.0000	95.1
106		Holy Cross	Pat	-5.7115	0.0000	107.4
107	X	Bucknell	Pat	-5.7200	0.0000	118.6
108		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-5.9626	0.0000	125.7
109	X	Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-6.0705	0.0000	130.0
110	X	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-6.1138	0.0000	123.2
111		Albany	AE	-6.2445	0.0000	128.5
112		Saint Joseph's	A10	-6.2535	0.0000	106.7
113		Utah	MWC	-6.2552	0.0000	114.2
114		Central Florida	CUSA	-6.3026	0.0000	129.7
115	X	Eastern Washington	BSky	-6.4170	0.0000	130.3
116		Evansville	MVC	-6.4242	0.0000	98.1
117		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-6.7440	0.0000	121.6
118		Northern Iowa	MVC	-6.8633	0.0000	104.3
119		Penn St.	B10	-6.8952	0.0000	102.7
120		Iowa	B10	-6.9224	0.0000	109.5
121		Boise St.	WAC	-7.0083	0.0000	131.8
122		Army	Pat	-7.0278	0.0000	126.5
123		Long Beach St.	BW	-7.0680	0.0000	129.3
124		Fordham	A10	-7.1677	0.0000	131.4
125		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-7.1771	0.0000	139.2
126		Miami FL	ACC	-7.2681	0.0000	119.2
127		Vermont	AE	-7.2773	0.0000	142.0
128		Navy	Pat	-7.3415	0.0000	132.0
129		Drake	MVC	-7.3692	0.0000	104.4
130		Western Michigan	MAC	-7.4278	0.0000	139.6
131	X	Sacred Heart	NEC	-7.5473	0.0000	148.1
132		Baylor	B12	-7.9012	0.0000	106.0
133		Miami OH	MAC	-8.0101	0.0000	133.0
134		Samford	OVC	-8.0802	0.0000	154.6
135		North Carolina St.	ACC	-8.1477	0.0000	112.3
136		Idaho St.	BSky	-8.1651	0.0000	143.0
137		College of Charleston	SC	-8.2419	0.0000	144.9
138		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-8.2590	0.0000	135.4
139		Robert Morris	NEC	-8.3392	0.0000	157.4
140		North Dakota St.	ind	-8.3609	0.0000	161.0
141	X	Oral Roberts	MCon	-8.3749	0.0000	147.2
142		Auburn	SEC	-8.4138	0.0000	110.2
143		Colorado St.	MWC	-8.4846	0.0000	130.5
144		Ohio	MAC	-8.7199	0.0000	147.0
145		Towson	CAA	-9.1319	0.0000	137.5
146		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-9.2069	0.0000	150.9
147		San Diego	WCC	-9.3690	0.0000	153.4
148		Toledo	MAC	-9.4264	0.0000	158.6
149		Siena	MAAC	-9.6440	0.0000	171.2
150		Rider	MAAC	-9.6704	0.0000	171.0
151		American	Pat	-9.6990	0.0000	162.8
152		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-9.7637	0.0000	143.0
153		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-9.9414	0.0000	153.2
154		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-10.0294	0.0000	164.0
155		Oakland	MCon	-10.1055	0.0000	162.7
156	X	Jackson St.	SWAC	-10.1316	0.0000	178.9
157		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-10.2932	0.0000	169.9
158		St. John's	BE	-10.3255	0.0000	123.4
159		Charlotte	A10	-10.3974	0.0000	142.6
160		Indiana St.	MVC	-10.4401	0.0000	132.1
161		Portland St.	BSky	-10.4564	0.0000	173.4
162		Lipscomb	ASun	-10.6030	0.0000	179.4
163		Hartford	AE	-10.6112	0.0000	174.2
164		UC Irvine	BW	-10.6841	0.0000	166.7
165		IUPUI	MCon	-10.7144	0.0000	175.2
166		Chattanooga	SC	-10.7146	0.0000	174.9
167		Youngstown St.	Horz	-10.7974	0.0000	172.6
168		Wyoming	MWC	-10.8133	0.0000	148.6
169		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-10.8691	0.0000	180.4
170		Rhode Island	A10	-10.9338	0.0000	148.5
171		Buffalo	MAC	-10.9428	0.0000	174.8
172		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-10.9491	0.0000	186.2
173	X	Delaware St.	MEAC	-10.9761	0.0000	182.6
174		Utah Valley St.	ind	-11.0488	0.0000	189.4
175		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-11.2451	0.0000	192.0
176		Furman	SC	-11.3418	0.0000	184.9
177		Middle Tennessee	SB	-11.3863	0.0000	181.1
178		South Florida	BE	-11.4300	0.0000	144.9
179		South Alabama	SB	-11.5078	0.0000	177.3
180		Princeton	Ivy	-11.5100	0.0000	183.7
181		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-11.5407	0.0000	193.6
182		Harvard	Ivy	-11.6309	0.0000	181.5
183		Texas Christian	MWC	-11.7284	0.0000	151.6
184		Austin Peay	OVC	-11.7615	0.0000	196.0
185		Columbia	Ivy	-11.8375	0.0000	191.4
186		St. Mary's	WCC	-11.9981	0.0000	170.3
187		Georgia Southern	SC	-12.1867	0.0000	197.5
188		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-12.2877	0.0000	206.4
189		Minnesota	B10	-12.3794	0.0000	154.6
190		Canisius	MAAC	-12.5269	0.0000	200.6
191		Valparaiso	MCon	-12.5358	0.0000	198.1
192		Arizona St.	P10	-12.5585	0.0000	158.8
193		Lehigh	Pat	-12.6002	0.0000	199.3
194		Southern Utah	MCon	-12.7608	0.0000	204.5
195		Ball St.	MAC	-12.8642	0.0000	188.5
196		Rice	CUSA	-12.8796	0.0000	180.4
197		Oregon St.	P10	-13.0106	0.0000	155.5
198		NC Wilmington	CAA	-13.0706	0.0000	190.6
199		La Salle	A10	-13.1498	0.0000	184.7
200		Brown	Ivy	-13.1666	0.0000	210.1
201		Loyola MD	MAAC	-13.2196	0.0000	210.7
202		Morehead St.	OVC	-13.2292	0.0000	217.5
203		Pepperdine	WCC	-13.3219	0.0000	195.8
204		Hofstra	CAA	-13.3460	0.0000	193.4
205		Tennessee St.	OVC	-13.4643	0.0000	207.9
206		Murray St.	OVC	-13.5652	0.0000	214.5
207	X	Boston University	AE	-13.5916	0.0000	211.2
208		Cornell	Ivy	-13.7570	0.0000	219.1
209		Arkansas St.	SB	-14.0552	0.0000	218.0
210		Maine	AE	-14.1213	0.0000	216.7
211		MD Baltimore County	AE	-14.2462	0.0000	214.8
212		Iowa St.	B12	-14.4124	0.0000	174.8
213		William & Mary	CAA	-14.4477	0.0000	196.2
214		New Orleans	SB	-14.4503	0.0000	221.6
215		Weber St.	BSky	-14.5580	0.0000	221.7
216		High Point	BSth	-14.5865	0.0000	222.6
217		Troy	SB	-14.6863	0.0000	221.5
218		Lamar	Slnd	-14.6905	0.0000	227.6
219		NC Greensboro	SC	-14.8136	0.0000	226.4
220		Monmouth	NEC	-14.8170	0.0000	223.0
221		Rutgers	BE	-15.0394	0.0000	171.7
222		Campbell	ASun	-15.0578	0.0000	228.7
223		Tulane	CUSA	-15.2247	0.0000	213.7
224		Cleveland St.	Horz	-15.2323	0.0000	222.9
225		Coppin St.	MEAC	-15.2681	0.0000	222.4
226		Jacksonville	ASun	-15.2929	0.0000	233.1
227		Pacific	BW	-15.3723	0.0000	218.3
228		Binghamton	AE	-15.4606	0.0000	237.2
229		Yale	Ivy	-15.4650	0.0000	226.9
230		Stony Brook	AE	-15.4676	0.0000	235.7
231		Montana	BSky	-15.4750	0.0000	232.7
232		Northeastern	CAA	-15.8730	0.0000	213.0
233		Fairfield	MAAC	-15.9811	0.0000	224.1
234		Texas Pan American	ind	-16.0585	0.0000	242.2
235		Stetson	ASun	-16.1268	0.0000	239.8
236		Western Carolina	SC	-16.2464	0.0000	232.7
237		Richmond	A10	-16.2481	0.0000	211.4
238		Chicago St.	MCon	-16.5079	0.0000	228.3
239		Northern Arizona	BSky	-16.5424	0.0000	249.5
240		Marshall	CUSA	-16.6369	0.0000	224.2
241		Bowling Green	MAC	-16.6540	0.0000	242.2
242		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-16.6846	0.0000	253.6
243		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-16.7808	0.0000	246.5
244		San Francisco	WCC	-16.9986	0.0000	234.2
245		Central Michigan	MAC	-17.0408	0.0000	247.1
246		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-17.2709	0.0000	250.3
247		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-17.3113	0.0000	250.2
248		Detroit	Horz	-17.3307	0.0000	238.2
249		Florida Atlantic	SB	-17.3686	0.0000	248.2
250		Mercer	ASun	-17.3808	0.0000	262.7
251		Hampton	MEAC	-17.4250	0.0000	258.9
252		Florida A&M	MEAC	-17.5204	0.0000	264.1
253		Texas Southern	SWAC	-17.5417	0.0000	264.0
254		Niagara	MAAC	-17.5870	0.0000	262.7
255		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-17.7310	0.0000	258.5
256		Centenary	MCon	-17.7803	0.0000	257.1
257		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-17.8096	0.0000	267.1
258		Liberty	BSth	-17.8294	0.0000	258.4
259		Lafayette	Pat	-17.9611	0.0000	247.9
260		St. Peter's	MAAC	-17.9790	0.0000	265.4
261		Howard	MEAC	-17.9937	0.0000	275.9
262		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-18.0023	0.0000	268.2
263		Cal Poly	BW	-18.0547	0.0000	266.2
264		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-18.0856	0.0000	274.9
265		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-18.1085	0.0000	272.3
266		Florida International	SB	-18.1126	0.0000	256.5
267		Northern Illinois	MAC	-18.1178	0.0000	263.8
268		Colgate	Pat	-18.1206	0.0000	257.5
269		Wright St.	Horz	-18.3225	0.0000	254.4
270		IUPU Fort Wayne	ind	-18.3896	0.0000	273.1
271		Duquesne	A10	-18.4581	0.0000	245.3
272		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-18.6967	0.0000	267.1
273		St. Francis PA	NEC	-18.7075	0.0000	281.0
274		Georgia St.	CAA	-19.0645	0.0000	250.6
275		McNeese St.	Slnd	-19.1491	0.0000	268.2
276		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-19.2844	0.0000	243.5
277		San Jose St.	WAC	-19.3853	0.0000	250.8
278		Longwood	ind	-19.4450	0.0000	272.5
279		Southern	SWAC	-19.4875	0.0000	285.9
280		Radford	BSth	-19.5321	0.0000	278.9
281		NC Asheville	BSth	-19.5833	0.0000	283.6
282		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-19.8676	0.0000	264.6
283		Grambling	SWAC	-20.0455	0.0000	295.4
284		Charleston Southern	BSth	-20.1404	0.0000	294.4
285		Manhattan	MAAC	-20.2641	0.0000	293.3
286		Dartmouth	Ivy	-20.2873	0.0000	280.0
287		Gardner Webb	ASun	-20.4110	0.0000	281.9
288		Alabama St.	SWAC	-20.4260	0.0000	297.0
289		Quinnipiac	NEC	-20.4293	0.0000	301.6
290		Morgan St.	MEAC	-20.4686	0.0000	299.0
291		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-20.4723	0.0000	281.3
292		Colorado	B12	-20.4845	0.0000	241.5
293		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-20.5133	0.0000	296.8
294		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-20.5207	0.0000	292.2
295		Long Island	NEC	-20.5406	0.0000	303.4
296		New Hampshire	AE	-20.6870	0.0000	299.8
297		Wagner	NEC	-20.6940	0.0000	303.0
298		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-20.6994	0.0000	305.5
299		Central Connecticut	NEC	-20.7489	0.0000	301.5
300		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-20.7633	0.0000	301.9
301		UC Davis	ind	-20.9530	0.0000	306.9
302		Western Illinois	MCon	-20.9797	0.0000	300.1
303		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-21.1280	0.0000	295.3
304		Wofford	SC	-21.1644	0.0000	295.4
305		East Carolina	CUSA	-21.1731	0.0000	286.5
306		Elon	SC	-21.6792	0.0000	288.4
307		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-21.7330	0.0000	295.3
308		James Madison	CAA	-21.8825	0.0000	285.3
309		Sacramento St.	BSky	-21.9644	0.0000	305.0
310		UC Riverside	BW	-22.0057	0.0000	309.2
311		Delaware	CAA	-22.1657	0.0000	297.3
312		Missouri Kansas City	MCon	-22.2011	0.0000	307.8
313		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-22.2197	0.0000	320.4
314		Iona	MAAC	-22.2628	0.0000	311.3
315		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-22.3493	0.0000	320.8
316		Savannah St.	ind	-22.3771	0.0000	312.0
317		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-22.3813	0.0000	315.5
318		Texas St.	Slnd	-22.3835	0.0000	313.0
319		St. Francis NY	NEC	-22.4233	0.0000	314.6
320		Idaho	WAC	-22.5856	0.0000	284.2
321		Portland	WCC	-22.6926	0.0000	295.9
322		The Citadel	SC	-23.0047	0.0000	300.3
323		Northern Colorado	BSky	-23.0103	0.0000	330.3
324		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-23.1222	0.0000	318.3
325		Winston Salem St.	ind	-23.1508	0.0000	321.2
326		South Dakota St.	ind	-23.2078	0.0000	327.3
327		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-23.4145	0.0000	311.3
328		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-23.4275	0.0000	331.3
329		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-23.4649	0.0000	324.5
330		St. Bonaventure	A10	-23.6590	0.0000	310.6
331		Montana St.	BSky	-23.6597	0.0000	327.8
332		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-23.8349	0.0000	320.2
333		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-23.8532	0.0000	323.0
334		North Florida	ASun	-24.0334	0.0000	330.9
335		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-24.1310	0.0000	334.5
336		Denver	SB	-24.8204	0.0000	334.8

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, and to Jay Colemen for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com