Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Jan 22, 2008.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1		North Carolina	ACC	9.3973	1.0000	2.0
2	X	Duke	ACC	9.3393	1.0000	3.3
3	X	Kansas	B12	9.1257	1.0000	3.4
4	X	Memphis	CUSA	8.3286	1.0000	3.5
5	X	Tennessee	SEC	7.9292	1.0000	3.1
6	X	UCLA	P10	6.7213	1.0000	9.2
7		Indiana	B10	6.4558	1.0000	13.0
8		Washington St.	P10	6.0313	1.0000	14.2
9		Michigan St.	B10	5.8346	1.0000	13.5
10	X	Xavier	A10	5.4546	1.0000	10.8
11	X	West Virginia	BE	5.3619	1.0000	14.3
12		Georgetown	BE	5.2940	1.0000	16.4
13	X	Wisconsin	B10	5.1634	1.0000	14.6
14	X	Drake	MVC	5.0283	1.0000	16.3
15		Mississippi	SEC	4.8150	1.0000	18.2
16		Marquette	BE	4.5497	1.0000	17.9
17		Clemson	ACC	4.4470	1.0000	23.6
18		Texas	B12	4.2269	1.0000	12.6
19		Pittsburgh	BE	3.9148	1.0000	19.0
20		Arizona	P10	3.8981	1.0000	13.8
21		Rhode Island	A10	3.5946	0.9998	27.7
22	X	Butler	Horz	3.4290	0.9997	35.1
23	X	St. Mary's	WCC	3.3970	0.9997	29.7
24		Ohio St.	B10	3.1138	0.9991	26.9
25		Gonzaga	WCC	3.0895	0.9990	35.5
26		Stanford	P10	2.9839	0.9986	28.9
27		Vanderbilt	SEC	2.8151	0.9976	22.3
28		Dayton	A10	2.7759	0.9972	24.1
29		Florida	SEC	2.3433	0.9904	34.5
30		Texas A&M	B12	2.3142	0.9897	31.0
31		Oklahoma	B12	2.2836	0.9888	27.1
32		Louisville	BE	2.1508	0.9843	30.6
33		Baylor	B12	1.9590	0.9749	29.6
34		Notre Dame	BE	1.9589	0.9749	39.4
35		Kansas St.	B12	1.7819	0.9626	31.5
36		Connecticut	BE	1.7767	0.9622	29.1
37		Southern California	P10	1.7429	0.9593	40.2
38		Illinois St.	MVC	1.4172	0.9218	45.6
39		Mississippi St.	SEC	1.3494	0.9114	37.1
40		Miami FL	ACC	1.2707	0.8981	36.4
41	X	South Alabama	SB	1.0985	0.8640	50.9
42		Arkansas	SEC	0.9382	0.8259	39.3
43		Oregon	P10	0.9286	0.8234	45.1
44	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.8137	0.7921	41.1
45		Massachusetts	A10	0.7616	0.7769	45.2
46		Providence	BE	0.4377	0.6692	48.5
47		George Mason	CAA	0.3821	0.6488	57.9
48		Brigham Young	MWC	0.1442	0.5573	54.5
49		Duquesne	A10	0.0906	0.5361	55.0
50		Arizona St.	P10	-0.1001	0.4601	58.0
51		Syracuse	BE	-0.1527	0.4393	38.4
52		Kent St.	MAC	-0.2395	0.4054	65.9
53		Creighton	MVC	-0.3621	0.3587	54.4
54		New Mexico	MWC	-0.3696	0.3559	57.9
55		Villanova	BE	-0.4643	0.3212	56.8
56	X	Davidson	SC	-0.5571	0.2887	73.5
57		Cleveland St.	Horz	-0.5637	0.2865	62.0
58		Florida St.	ACC	-0.6382	0.2617	48.3
59		Missouri	B12	-0.6638	0.2534	53.6
60	X	Akron	MAC	-0.7341	0.2315	71.0
61		San Diego St.	MWC	-0.8349	0.2019	60.5
62	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-1.1386	0.1274	72.6
63		Ohio	MAC	-1.3138	0.0945	66.9
64		Saint Joseph's	A10	-1.3347	0.0910	58.8
65		Maryland	ACC	-1.4338	0.0758	52.5
66		UAB	CUSA	-1.5700	0.0582	66.9
67		Houston	CUSA	-1.8746	0.0304	69.4
68	X	Siena	MAAC	-1.9166	0.0276	79.6
69		Boston College	ACC	-2.0767	0.0189	60.7
70		California	P10	-2.2612	0.0119	59.9
71		Southern Illinois	MVC	-2.3380	0.0097	71.4
72		Western Kentucky	SB	-2.4587	0.0070	82.5
73		Minnesota	B10	-2.4967	0.0063	71.2
74	X	Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-2.5169	0.0059	84.1
75	X	UC Santa Barbara	BW	-2.5595	0.0052	84.9
76		Texas Tech	B12	-2.5895	0.0048	65.5
77		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-2.6566	0.0039	87.2
78		Charlotte	A10	-2.7254	0.0032	85.2
79		North Carolina St.	ACC	-2.7424	0.0030	73.0
80		Virginia Tech	ACC	-2.7471	0.0030	76.5
81		Oral Roberts	Sum	-2.8917	0.0019	93.5
82		Temple	A10	-3.0545	0.0011	73.2
83		Valparaiso	Horz	-3.1793	0.0007	84.3
84		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-3.2702	0.0005	96.3
85		Purdue	B10	-3.4402	0.0003	93.1
86		Miami OH	MAC	-3.5115	0.0002	83.1
87	X	Winthrop	BSth	-3.6213	0.0001	106.6
88		Kentucky	SEC	-3.6757	0.0001	80.3
89		Georgia Tech	ACC	-3.9274	0.0000	82.4
90		Virginia	ACC	-3.9317	0.0000	77.9
91	X	IUPUI	Sum	-3.9823	0.0000	112.7
92		Utah	MWC	-4.0214	0.0000	78.6
93		Wake Forest	ACC	-4.3125	0.0000	89.1
94		South Carolina	SEC	-4.4200	0.0000	82.7
95		Boise St.	WAC	-4.4937	0.0000	113.5
96		NC Asheville	BSth	-4.5058	0.0000	110.6
97		Georgia Southern	SC	-4.5450	0.0000	104.1
98		Georgia	SEC	-4.5605	0.0000	95.8
99		Illinois	B10	-4.7202	0.0000	90.2
100		Utah St.	WAC	-4.7711	0.0000	111.3
101		Central Florida	CUSA	-4.8226	0.0000	98.9
102		Seton Hall	BE	-4.8294	0.0000	86.4
103		Hampton	MEAC	-5.0205	0.0000	115.1
104		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-5.1589	0.0000	115.4
105	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-5.1753	0.0000	107.8
106		Wright St.	Horz	-5.3791	0.0000	108.0
107		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-5.3863	0.0000	96.0
108		Appalachian St.	SC	-5.4081	0.0000	123.7
109		Nevada	WAC	-5.4411	0.0000	107.6
110		Cincinnati	BE	-5.6749	0.0000	107.5
111	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-5.6802	0.0000	114.9
112		Washington	P10	-5.7691	0.0000	96.2
113	X	MD Baltimore County	AE	-5.9006	0.0000	128.8
114		Chattanooga	SC	-6.0677	0.0000	116.7
115		North Texas	SB	-6.1495	0.0000	125.5
116		Marist	MAAC	-6.3156	0.0000	116.8
117		Niagara	MAAC	-6.3239	0.0000	126.0
118		Lafayette	Pat	-6.5112	0.0000	131.0
119	X	Northern Arizona	BSky	-6.5489	0.0000	136.4
120		Penn St.	B10	-6.5544	0.0000	113.9
121		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-6.6180	0.0000	129.4
122		Pacific	BW	-6.7279	0.0000	131.7
123		Marshall	CUSA	-6.7446	0.0000	122.2
124		Oklahoma St.	B12	-6.7638	0.0000	103.7
125	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-6.8471	0.0000	139.7
126		Belmont	ASun	-6.9261	0.0000	147.5
127		Alabama	SEC	-7.0446	0.0000	94.9
128		Nebraska	B12	-7.0943	0.0000	115.5
129		Iowa St.	B12	-7.1875	0.0000	112.6
130		Cornell	Ivy	-7.3206	0.0000	141.1
131		Tulane	CUSA	-7.3544	0.0000	123.6
132	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-7.4247	0.0000	147.2
133		New Orleans	SB	-7.5154	0.0000	138.8
134		Rider	MAAC	-7.7051	0.0000	143.5
135		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-7.7785	0.0000	133.0
136		South Florida	BE	-7.8045	0.0000	116.0
137		American	Pat	-7.8067	0.0000	149.2
138	X	Brown	Ivy	-7.9415	0.0000	138.1
139		Auburn	SEC	-8.0088	0.0000	117.9
140		DePaul	BE	-8.2009	0.0000	120.9
141		NC Greensboro	SC	-8.3968	0.0000	149.2
142		Old Dominion	CAA	-8.3998	0.0000	139.3
143		Missouri St.	MVC	-8.6059	0.0000	125.1
144		Tulsa	CUSA	-8.6218	0.0000	138.4
145	X	East Tennessee St.	ASun	-8.6560	0.0000	154.1
146		Northern Iowa	MVC	-8.8165	0.0000	142.9
147		James Madison	CAA	-8.9336	0.0000	154.5
148		Portland St.	BSky	-8.9798	0.0000	168.6
149		St. John's	BE	-9.0332	0.0000	119.6
150		Wagner	NEC	-9.0867	0.0000	164.4
151		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-9.1751	0.0000	140.6
152		Delaware	CAA	-9.2369	0.0000	157.9
153	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-9.4489	0.0000	167.6
154		Fordham	A10	-9.4522	0.0000	141.0
155		Indiana St.	MVC	-9.7182	0.0000	149.1
156		Yale	Ivy	-9.8200	0.0000	167.5
157		Bucknell	Pat	-9.9873	0.0000	168.7
158		Western Michigan	MAC	-9.9924	0.0000	172.9
159		Wichita St.	MVC	-10.0287	0.0000	142.1
160		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-10.2158	0.0000	150.4
161		St. Louis	A10	-10.3375	0.0000	142.3
162		Albany	AE	-10.3498	0.0000	180.6
163		Sacred Heart	NEC	-10.3516	0.0000	182.0
164		Fresno St.	WAC	-10.4577	0.0000	158.1
165		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-10.5908	0.0000	155.2
166		Colorado	B12	-10.6956	0.0000	145.1
167		Bradley	MVC	-10.7936	0.0000	148.6
168		Long Island	NEC	-10.8339	0.0000	175.3
169		Quinnipiac	NEC	-10.8367	0.0000	190.0
170		Richmond	A10	-10.9008	0.0000	158.3
171		William & Mary	CAA	-10.9075	0.0000	177.0
172		Texas Christian	MWC	-10.9164	0.0000	158.9
173		Santa Clara	WCC	-10.9777	0.0000	170.1
174		Murray St.	OVC	-11.0170	0.0000	187.9
175		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-11.0215	0.0000	184.4
176		Weber St.	BSky	-11.0715	0.0000	183.1
177		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-11.2283	0.0000	173.4
178		Middle Tennessee	SB	-11.2469	0.0000	169.8
179		San Diego	WCC	-11.6312	0.0000	161.7
180		Jacksonville	ASun	-11.7288	0.0000	196.0
181		College of Charleston	SC	-11.7407	0.0000	176.3
182		Air Force	MWC	-11.7802	0.0000	169.5
183		Oakland	Sum	-11.8070	0.0000	193.6
184		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-11.9805	0.0000	188.1
185		San Jose St.	WAC	-11.9839	0.0000	191.5
186		UC Irvine	BW	-12.0061	0.0000	179.4
187		NC Wilmington	CAA	-12.2722	0.0000	184.4
188		Central Connecticut	NEC	-12.3549	0.0000	201.0
189		Lamar	Slnd	-12.3783	0.0000	199.3
190		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-12.4304	0.0000	201.3
191		Iowa	B10	-12.4386	0.0000	175.1
192		Montana St.	BSky	-12.7071	0.0000	197.5
193		East Carolina	CUSA	-12.9776	0.0000	198.7
194		Loyola MD	MAAC	-13.0517	0.0000	202.2
195		North Dakota St.	Sum	-13.2356	0.0000	202.8
196		Troy	SB	-13.3572	0.0000	195.5
197		Vermont	AE	-13.5212	0.0000	212.5
198		Liberty	BSth	-13.6548	0.0000	207.9
199	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-13.7444	0.0000	233.1
200		Michigan	B10	-13.7779	0.0000	176.6
201		Northeastern	CAA	-13.8012	0.0000	193.5
202		Fairfield	MAAC	-13.8246	0.0000	211.6
203		Northwestern	B10	-13.8330	0.0000	181.1
204		Binghamton	AE	-13.8404	0.0000	225.7
205		Louisiana St.	SEC	-13.8902	0.0000	168.1
206		Central Michigan	MAC	-14.0928	0.0000	206.6
207		Denver	SB	-14.2605	0.0000	218.5
208		Colgate	Pat	-14.2942	0.0000	211.5
209		George Washington	A10	-14.3146	0.0000	192.7
210		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-14.5312	0.0000	208.5
211		La Salle	A10	-14.6146	0.0000	200.2
212		Tennessee St.	OVC	-14.6410	0.0000	231.6
213		Chicago St.	ind	-14.6794	0.0000	216.6
214		Hartford	AE	-14.8086	0.0000	219.9
215		Columbia	Ivy	-14.8161	0.0000	227.5
216		Bowling Green	MAC	-14.8468	0.0000	206.7
217		Iona	MAAC	-14.8570	0.0000	221.3
218		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-14.9400	0.0000	226.6
219		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-14.9825	0.0000	232.9
220		Youngstown St.	Horz	-15.1151	0.0000	196.5
221		Gardner Webb	ASun	-15.2244	0.0000	232.7
222		Hawaii	WAC	-15.3824	0.0000	224.5
223		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-15.4633	0.0000	232.8
224		Drexel	CAA	-15.7783	0.0000	212.4
225		Toledo	MAC	-15.8212	0.0000	219.2
226		Lehigh	Pat	-15.8505	0.0000	237.6
227		Pepperdine	WCC	-15.8742	0.0000	212.5
228		Lipscomb	ASun	-15.9368	0.0000	245.2
229		Wofford	SC	-16.1432	0.0000	228.1
230		Montana	BSky	-16.1542	0.0000	243.3
231		Campbell	ASun	-16.1619	0.0000	250.9
232		Morehead St.	OVC	-16.1656	0.0000	246.1
233		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-16.2467	0.0000	254.1
234		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-16.2546	0.0000	224.8
235		High Point	BSth	-16.3179	0.0000	242.6
236		Rutgers	BE	-16.3836	0.0000	194.3
237		Army	Pat	-16.3955	0.0000	245.2
238		Harvard	Ivy	-16.5816	0.0000	245.7
239		Buffalo	MAC	-16.6907	0.0000	224.0
240		Northern Colorado	BSky	-16.7249	0.0000	255.7
241		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-16.9361	0.0000	241.8
242		Hofstra	CAA	-17.0431	0.0000	242.8
243		Arkansas St.	SB	-17.0849	0.0000	249.9
244		Utah Valley St.	ind	-17.1051	0.0000	264.0
245		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-17.1192	0.0000	248.4
246		San Francisco	WCC	-17.1299	0.0000	233.1
247		Towson	CAA	-17.2091	0.0000	244.7
248		Delaware St.	MEAC	-17.2094	0.0000	250.2
249		Cal Poly	BW	-17.2435	0.0000	235.8
250		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-17.3039	0.0000	259.3
251		Colorado St.	MWC	-17.4455	0.0000	213.9
252		Centenary	Sum	-17.4473	0.0000	255.1
253		St. Bonaventure	A10	-17.4642	0.0000	225.3
254		Manhattan	MAAC	-17.5837	0.0000	258.3
255		Southern	SWAC	-17.9096	0.0000	271.9
256		Eastern Washington	BSky	-18.0943	0.0000	261.6
257		Elon	SC	-18.1447	0.0000	251.7
258		Mercer	ASun	-18.2463	0.0000	281.9
259		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-18.4071	0.0000	269.1
260		Oregon St.	P10	-18.4575	0.0000	220.6
261		Navy	Pat	-18.4798	0.0000	271.5
262		Wyoming	MWC	-18.5722	0.0000	226.1
263		Evansville	MVC	-18.5818	0.0000	234.4
264		Stetson	ASun	-18.6036	0.0000	268.1
265		New Hampshire	AE	-18.6231	0.0000	276.3
266		McNeese St.	Slnd	-18.6327	0.0000	266.6
267		UC Davis	BW	-18.7038	0.0000	265.6
268		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-18.7192	0.0000	264.6
269		Western Illinois	Sum	-18.7535	0.0000	265.8
270		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-18.8880	0.0000	275.5
271		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-18.9226	0.0000	271.2
272		Florida Atlantic	SB	-18.9481	0.0000	253.8
273		Boston University	AE	-18.9508	0.0000	273.5
274		Dartmouth	Ivy	-18.9590	0.0000	279.2
275		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-18.9910	0.0000	280.3
276		Savannah St.	ind	-19.4095	0.0000	283.1
277		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-19.4675	0.0000	263.8
278		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-19.4786	0.0000	290.8
279		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-19.4854	0.0000	297.1
280		Jackson St.	SWAC	-19.6285	0.0000	284.8
281		Texas St.	Slnd	-19.7006	0.0000	279.6
282		Florida International	SB	-19.7594	0.0000	260.5
283		Southern Utah	Sum	-19.8426	0.0000	276.9
284		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-19.8775	0.0000	285.6
285		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-19.8938	0.0000	299.8
286		Samford	OVC	-19.9283	0.0000	292.5
287		Florida A&M	MEAC	-20.0451	0.0000	284.3
288		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-20.0661	0.0000	306.8
289		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-20.1212	0.0000	265.0
290		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-20.1547	0.0000	297.4
291		Princeton	Ivy	-20.2581	0.0000	293.3
292		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-20.2726	0.0000	288.4
293		Texas Pan American	ind	-20.2759	0.0000	308.9
294		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-20.5067	0.0000	283.4
295		St. Francis NY	NEC	-20.8077	0.0000	298.8
296		Idaho St.	BSky	-20.9324	0.0000	298.8
297		Portland	WCC	-20.9925	0.0000	278.5
298		Rice	CUSA	-21.1354	0.0000	271.7
299		Ball St.	MAC	-21.1590	0.0000	278.3
300		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-21.1960	0.0000	281.1
301		South Dakota St.	Sum	-21.2324	0.0000	298.0
302		Detroit	Horz	-21.2417	0.0000	275.6
303		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-21.3068	0.0000	309.9
304		St. Peter's	MAAC	-21.4240	0.0000	292.3
305		Georgia St.	CAA	-21.4385	0.0000	293.6
306		Northern Illinois	MAC	-21.4599	0.0000	284.6
307		Western Carolina	SC	-21.5038	0.0000	288.6
308		Long Beach St.	BW	-21.5549	0.0000	293.3
309		Monmouth	NEC	-21.6119	0.0000	305.4
310		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-21.9531	0.0000	302.6
311		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-22.0530	0.0000	313.3
312		St. Francis PA	NEC	-22.1140	0.0000	309.3
313		Texas Southern	SWAC	-22.4370	0.0000	315.9
314		Coppin St.	MEAC	-22.4875	0.0000	303.4
315		Idaho	WAC	-22.5285	0.0000	307.3
316		UC Riverside	BW	-22.6684	0.0000	292.1
317		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-22.7774	0.0000	329.2
318		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-22.8153	0.0000	309.2
319		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-22.8913	0.0000	327.3
320		Furman	SC	-23.0226	0.0000	310.7
321		Radford	BSth	-23.0343	0.0000	320.9
322		Longwood	ind	-23.0792	0.0000	330.1
323		Charleston Southern	BSth	-23.1918	0.0000	321.2
324		Stony Brook	AE	-23.3065	0.0000	325.5
325		Canisius	MAAC	-23.4109	0.0000	319.0
326		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-23.5525	0.0000	315.6
327		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.7143	0.0000	336.3
328		Howard	MEAC	-23.7307	0.0000	323.3
329		North Carolina Central	ind	-23.8067	0.0000	322.4
330		Maine	AE	-23.9959	0.0000	327.3
331		Sacramento St.	BSky	-24.0199	0.0000	327.0
332		Presbyterian	ind	-24.0506	0.0000	326.4
333		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-24.0636	0.0000	335.9
334		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-24.0804	0.0000	304.5
335		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-24.1219	0.0000	340.7
336		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-24.1911	0.0000	337.5
337		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-24.5107	0.0000	335.7
338		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-24.7881	0.0000	335.7
339		Grambling	SWAC	-25.1509	0.0000	339.0
340		North Florida	ASun	-25.6300	0.0000	337.9
341		The Citadel	SC	-25.6648	0.0000	329.2

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com