Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Dec 22, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1		North Carolina	ACC	8.8937	1.0000	1.7
2	X	Duke	ACC	8.5037	1.0000	2.6
3	X	Kansas	B12	8.1671	1.0000	4.6
4	X	West Virginia	BE	8.1512	1.0000	6.5
5	X	Memphis	CUSA	6.7833	1.0000	9.5
6	X	Tennessee	SEC	6.6939	1.0000	5.4
7		Marquette	BE	6.3737	1.0000	12.6
8		Arizona	P10	6.0018	1.0000	7.3
9		Pittsburgh	BE	5.7884	1.0000	11.6
10		Texas	B12	5.7395	1.0000	8.6
11		Mississippi	SEC	5.5620	1.0000	14.4
12		Michigan St.	B10	5.4853	1.0000	12.5
13	X	UCLA	P10	5.2956	1.0000	16.5
14		Texas A&M	B12	5.0001	1.0000	17.3
15		Rhode Island	A10	4.9211	1.0000	17.1
16	X	Xavier	A10	4.7975	1.0000	18.3
17		Indiana	B10	4.4377	1.0000	22.1
18		Miami FL	ACC	3.8711	0.9999	18.8
19	X	Wisconsin	B10	3.8124	0.9999	25.2
20		Stanford	P10	3.7385	0.9999	23.8
21	X	Butler	Horz	3.4813	0.9998	35.7
22		Washington St.	P10	3.3781	0.9996	26.3
23		Southern California	P10	3.3452	0.9996	30.8
24		Vanderbilt	SEC	3.2278	0.9994	21.6
25		Clemson	ACC	3.1735	0.9992	27.1
26		St. Mary's	WCC	3.0284	0.9988	33.5
27		Baylor	B12	3.0264	0.9988	27.9
28		Georgetown	BE	2.7161	0.9967	35.5
29		Ohio St.	B10	2.5833	0.9951	29.8
30	X	Gonzaga	WCC	2.5426	0.9945	34.3
31		Oklahoma	B12	2.5133	0.9940	29.9
32	X	Drake	MVC	2.2989	0.9892	39.0
33		Arkansas	SEC	2.0058	0.9776	35.1
34		Providence	BE	1.6655	0.9521	38.3
35		Syracuse	BE	1.5308	0.9371	29.8
36		Florida St.	ACC	1.4954	0.9326	34.6
37		Oregon	P10	1.3358	0.9092	39.4
38		Notre Dame	BE	1.2588	0.8959	43.5
39		Duquesne	A10	1.2388	0.8923	45.6
40		Dayton	A10	1.1634	0.8777	40.1
41		Creighton	MVC	1.0011	0.8416	47.2
42		Brigham Young	MWC	0.9999	0.8413	48.4
43		Minnesota	B10	0.8815	0.8110	42.1
44		New Mexico	MWC	0.6985	0.7576	52.2
45	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.5471	0.7079	39.0
46		Massachusetts	A10	0.5075	0.6941	48.1
47		Missouri	B12	0.4671	0.6798	44.2
48		Connecticut	BE	0.4170	0.6617	41.4
49		California	P10	0.3055	0.6200	44.7
50	X	Miami OH	MAC	0.2203	0.5872	56.5
51	X	South Alabama	SB	-0.0215	0.4914	60.5
52	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-0.0656	0.4738	55.3
53		George Mason	CAA	-0.0956	0.4619	62.6
54		Virginia	ACC	-0.3314	0.3702	52.0
55		Florida	SEC	-0.4603	0.3226	56.8
56		Villanova	BE	-0.6612	0.2542	56.0
57	X	Texas Arlington	Slnd	-0.6786	0.2487	71.0
58		Louisville	BE	-0.7088	0.2392	52.7
59		Illinois	B10	-0.7834	0.2167	56.6
60		Valparaiso	Horz	-0.8655	0.1934	65.2
61	X	Siena	MAAC	-1.0258	0.1525	73.1
62		Houston	CUSA	-1.0692	0.1425	64.0
63	X	Winthrop	BSth	-1.6170	0.0529	83.1
64		UAB	CUSA	-1.6535	0.0491	65.5
65		Kent St.	MAC	-1.7391	0.0410	76.3
66	X	UC Santa Barbara	BW	-1.7595	0.0392	80.0
67		Boston College	ACC	-1.8333	0.0334	52.8
68		Utah	MWC	-1.8892	0.0294	67.7
69	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-1.9035	0.0285	81.5
70		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-2.0519	0.0201	78.2
71		San Diego St.	MWC	-2.3776	0.0087	64.1
72		Western Kentucky	SB	-2.4429	0.0073	86.8
73		Georgia Tech	ACC	-2.4439	0.0073	71.4
74		Illinois St.	MVC	-2.5734	0.0050	77.0
75		South Carolina	SEC	-2.5900	0.0048	68.4
76	X	IUPUI	Sum	-2.6119	0.0045	96.3
77		Texas Tech	B12	-2.6384	0.0042	68.7
78		Mississippi St.	SEC	-2.7249	0.0032	67.6
79		James Madison	CAA	-2.8881	0.0019	91.1
80		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-2.9487	0.0016	90.4
81		North Texas	SB	-3.0004	0.0013	90.5
82		Nebraska	B12	-3.0018	0.0013	83.8
83	X	Davidson	SC	-3.0173	0.0013	102.1
84		Ohio	MAC	-3.1162	0.0009	79.6
85		Georgia Southern	SC	-3.1337	0.0009	94.0
86		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-3.1690	0.0008	76.8
87		Nevada	WAC	-3.3035	0.0005	88.5
88		Oral Roberts	Sum	-3.4088	0.0003	100.0
89		Southern Illinois	MVC	-3.4740	0.0003	85.3
90		Arizona St.	P10	-3.4806	0.0003	74.0
91		Wichita St.	MVC	-3.7422	0.0001	86.0
92		Kansas St.	B12	-3.8016	0.0001	74.2
93		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-3.9963	0.0000	87.6
94		North Carolina St.	ACC	-4.1276	0.0000	89.1
95	X	MD Baltimore County	AE	-4.1930	0.0000	106.8
96		Temple	A10	-4.2000	0.0000	88.7
97		South Florida	BE	-4.2727	0.0000	93.6
98		Cleveland St.	Horz	-4.3883	0.0000	96.1
99		Akron	MAC	-4.4792	0.0000	100.5
100		Alabama	SEC	-4.6184	0.0000	83.3
101		Niagara	MAAC	-4.6342	0.0000	111.3
102		Wright St.	Horz	-4.8684	0.0000	107.2
103		Kentucky	SEC	-4.9752	0.0000	89.9
104		Saint Joseph's	A10	-5.1154	0.0000	88.7
105	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-5.2258	0.0000	123.0
106		Hampton	MEAC	-5.2352	0.0000	115.2
107		Oklahoma St.	B12	-5.3398	0.0000	89.0
108		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-5.3709	0.0000	105.1
109		Seton Hall	BE	-5.3828	0.0000	90.9
110		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-5.5520	0.0000	122.3
111		Virginia Tech	ACC	-5.6024	0.0000	98.0
112		Charlotte	A10	-5.8137	0.0000	112.9
113		Pacific	BW	-6.0631	0.0000	125.1
114	X	Brown	Ivy	-6.0707	0.0000	122.2
115		Tulane	CUSA	-6.3560	0.0000	115.4
116		Boise St.	WAC	-6.4077	0.0000	129.8
117	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-6.5215	0.0000	121.5
118		Washington	P10	-6.7593	0.0000	104.6
119		Bradley	MVC	-6.8205	0.0000	108.0
120		Central Florida	CUSA	-6.8898	0.0000	120.9
121		Louisiana St.	SEC	-7.1123	0.0000	108.0
122		Old Dominion	CAA	-7.1440	0.0000	120.0
123		Wake Forest	ACC	-7.2267	0.0000	120.5
124		Maryland	ACC	-7.3089	0.0000	101.4
125		Marist	MAAC	-7.4593	0.0000	130.0
126		Chattanooga	SC	-7.4899	0.0000	135.5
127		Lafayette	Pat	-7.5214	0.0000	138.8
128		Fresno St.	WAC	-7.9965	0.0000	136.1
129		St. John's	BE	-8.0402	0.0000	111.9
130		Georgia	SEC	-8.0567	0.0000	121.2
131	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-8.1873	0.0000	157.7
132		Purdue	B10	-8.2390	0.0000	133.5
133		Long Island	NEC	-8.3392	0.0000	150.6
134		Marshall	CUSA	-8.4082	0.0000	133.6
135		Penn St.	B10	-8.4522	0.0000	128.3
136		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-8.5136	0.0000	145.6
137		Santa Clara	WCC	-8.6415	0.0000	141.6
138		Portland St.	BSky	-8.7018	0.0000	160.2
139		Northern Iowa	MVC	-8.7829	0.0000	139.6
140		Northern Arizona	BSky	-8.8889	0.0000	162.3
141		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-8.9324	0.0000	134.3
142		Northeastern	CAA	-8.9692	0.0000	144.2
143		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-8.9867	0.0000	162.3
144		Tulsa	CUSA	-9.0822	0.0000	145.7
145	X	East Tennessee St.	ASun	-9.1120	0.0000	159.1
146		Missouri St.	MVC	-9.1811	0.0000	130.0
147		Utah St.	WAC	-9.2631	0.0000	157.4
148		Rider	MAAC	-9.3299	0.0000	159.4
149		New Orleans	SB	-9.3518	0.0000	155.5
150	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-9.3824	0.0000	162.9
151		Wagner	NEC	-9.4170	0.0000	167.5
152		Oakland	Sum	-9.5837	0.0000	164.8
153		American	Pat	-9.5899	0.0000	157.0
154	X	Montana St.	BSky	-9.6215	0.0000	163.0
155		Albany	AE	-9.8171	0.0000	173.7
156		St. Louis	A10	-9.9005	0.0000	138.4
157		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-10.0256	0.0000	164.1
158		Auburn	SEC	-10.1591	0.0000	138.0
159		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-10.2532	0.0000	162.6
160		Iowa St.	B12	-10.3026	0.0000	131.5
161		Central Michigan	MAC	-10.3735	0.0000	165.5
162		NC Wilmington	CAA	-10.5742	0.0000	164.5
163		North Dakota St.	Sum	-10.6396	0.0000	175.2
164		Troy	SB	-10.6434	0.0000	166.5
165		Appalachian St.	SC	-10.8688	0.0000	182.2
166		College of Charleston	SC	-10.9632	0.0000	172.1
167		Montana	BSky	-11.1099	0.0000	185.3
168		Colorado	B12	-11.2727	0.0000	146.8
169		Yale	Ivy	-11.2905	0.0000	181.2
170		NC Asheville	BSth	-11.3942	0.0000	184.0
171		Western Michigan	MAC	-11.4765	0.0000	181.3
172		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-11.4801	0.0000	177.8
173		UC Irvine	BW	-11.4827	0.0000	173.1
174		Texas Christian	MWC	-11.6427	0.0000	157.8
175		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-11.6946	0.0000	195.7
176		Belmont	ASun	-11.8160	0.0000	203.7
177		Murray St.	OVC	-11.8897	0.0000	199.0
178		San Diego	WCC	-11.9659	0.0000	161.4
179		Drexel	CAA	-12.0369	0.0000	175.8
180		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-12.0503	0.0000	193.5
181		Michigan	B10	-12.0908	0.0000	153.9
182		DePaul	BE	-12.0951	0.0000	149.1
183		NC Greensboro	SC	-12.1225	0.0000	194.5
184		Cornell	Ivy	-12.2475	0.0000	199.9
185		Iona	MAAC	-12.3378	0.0000	193.3
186		Bucknell	Pat	-12.3385	0.0000	189.7
187	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-12.3788	0.0000	215.6
188		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-12.4913	0.0000	180.6
189		Colorado St.	MWC	-12.5849	0.0000	162.6
190		Toledo	MAC	-12.5962	0.0000	184.5
191		Colgate	Pat	-12.9044	0.0000	197.1
192		Pepperdine	WCC	-13.0103	0.0000	185.2
193		Delaware	CAA	-13.1236	0.0000	197.2
194		Fordham	A10	-13.1912	0.0000	176.2
195		Manhattan	MAAC	-13.2139	0.0000	208.6
196		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-13.2385	0.0000	203.0
197		Gardner Webb	ASun	-13.3936	0.0000	212.6
198		George Washington	A10	-13.5883	0.0000	190.1
199		Northwestern	B10	-13.6057	0.0000	177.8
200		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-13.8075	0.0000	206.1
201		Wyoming	MWC	-13.8171	0.0000	176.9
202		Richmond	A10	-13.9304	0.0000	194.2
203		Sacred Heart	NEC	-13.9503	0.0000	218.1
204		Wofford	SC	-14.0205	0.0000	208.1
205		East Carolina	CUSA	-14.0587	0.0000	204.2
206		New Hampshire	AE	-14.1118	0.0000	221.1
207		Indiana St.	MVC	-14.3280	0.0000	182.6
208		Columbia	Ivy	-14.3283	0.0000	221.8
209		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-14.6138	0.0000	226.1
210		Buffalo	MAC	-14.7433	0.0000	206.9
211		Denver	SB	-14.7672	0.0000	224.8
212		Weber St.	BSky	-15.1211	0.0000	226.3
213		Oregon St.	P10	-15.1550	0.0000	191.4
214		Tennessee St.	OVC	-15.1940	0.0000	235.2
215		Air Force	MWC	-15.2664	0.0000	199.6
216		Cal Poly	BW	-15.2680	0.0000	219.3
217		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-15.3033	0.0000	243.4
218		Liberty	BSth	-15.3063	0.0000	230.4
219		Central Connecticut	NEC	-15.3235	0.0000	234.2
220		Rutgers	BE	-15.4017	0.0000	183.3
221		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-15.4500	0.0000	228.3
222		Harvard	Ivy	-15.4951	0.0000	230.3
223		Cincinnati	BE	-15.5158	0.0000	185.2
224		Detroit	Horz	-15.6055	0.0000	218.0
225		Quinnipiac	NEC	-15.6300	0.0000	240.0
226		Loyola MD	MAAC	-15.6429	0.0000	225.0
227		Jacksonville	ASun	-15.6461	0.0000	239.0
228		Hofstra	CAA	-15.6980	0.0000	224.0
229		McNeese St.	Slnd	-15.7637	0.0000	236.2
230		St. Bonaventure	A10	-15.7682	0.0000	211.4
231		San Francisco	WCC	-15.9216	0.0000	214.5
232		La Salle	A10	-15.9435	0.0000	215.6
233		Utah Valley St.	ind	-16.0252	0.0000	257.8
234		Youngstown St.	Horz	-16.0515	0.0000	210.7
235		Middle Tennessee	SB	-16.3271	0.0000	227.3
236		Iowa	B10	-16.3580	0.0000	212.8
237		Mercer	ASun	-16.4513	0.0000	259.7
238		Lehigh	Pat	-16.4823	0.0000	244.3
239		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-16.5171	0.0000	214.4
240		William & Mary	CAA	-16.5351	0.0000	233.6
241		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-16.5990	0.0000	244.4
242		Northern Colorado	BSky	-16.6541	0.0000	252.9
243		Portland	WCC	-16.6811	0.0000	229.7
244		Elon	SC	-16.6852	0.0000	243.5
245		Boston University	AE	-16.8222	0.0000	247.0
246		Evansville	MVC	-16.8460	0.0000	211.7
247		St. Peter's	MAAC	-16.8981	0.0000	243.1
248		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-16.9324	0.0000	239.8
249		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-17.0560	0.0000	258.8
250		Bowling Green	MAC	-17.0627	0.0000	233.2
251		High Point	BSth	-17.0873	0.0000	250.2
252		Lipscomb	ASun	-17.1068	0.0000	265.2
253		Centenary	Sum	-17.1165	0.0000	247.1
254		Vermont	AE	-17.1736	0.0000	252.5
255		Hartford	AE	-17.3936	0.0000	243.1
256		St. Francis PA	NEC	-17.4520	0.0000	261.6
257		Eastern Washington	BSky	-17.6444	0.0000	256.8
258		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-17.6512	0.0000	265.9
259		South Dakota St.	Sum	-17.6845	0.0000	255.8
260		St. Francis NY	NEC	-17.9856	0.0000	264.9
261		Hawaii	WAC	-18.0251	0.0000	256.4
262		Fairfield	MAAC	-18.0328	0.0000	251.9
263		Delaware St.	MEAC	-18.0620	0.0000	263.2
264		Southern Utah	Sum	-18.0817	0.0000	256.9
265		Princeton	Ivy	-18.1850	0.0000	269.7
266		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-18.2201	0.0000	278.9
267		Arkansas St.	SB	-18.3405	0.0000	261.3
268		Lamar	Slnd	-18.3641	0.0000	263.1
269		UC Davis	BW	-18.5055	0.0000	266.9
270		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-18.6401	0.0000	272.5
271		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-18.6701	0.0000	251.9
272		Towson	CAA	-18.7134	0.0000	261.5
273		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-18.7586	0.0000	274.4
274		Navy	Pat	-18.7790	0.0000	271.6
275		Army	Pat	-18.7912	0.0000	265.1
276		Chicago St.	ind	-18.8186	0.0000	264.6
277		San Jose St.	WAC	-18.8914	0.0000	273.9
278		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-19.0041	0.0000	276.7
279		Southern	SWAC	-19.0196	0.0000	279.1
280		Samford	OVC	-19.0742	0.0000	283.8
281		Texas St.	Slnd	-19.0835	0.0000	267.6
282		Long Beach St.	BW	-19.1596	0.0000	270.1
283		Stetson	ASun	-19.2381	0.0000	278.7
284		Binghamton	AE	-19.3932	0.0000	288.2
285		Florida Atlantic	SB	-19.7003	0.0000	265.7
286		Texas Southern	SWAC	-19.7682	0.0000	287.9
287		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-19.7773	0.0000	279.2
288		Morehead St.	OVC	-20.1131	0.0000	289.5
289		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-20.2559	0.0000	296.4
290		Dartmouth	Ivy	-20.2678	0.0000	292.2
291		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-20.3144	0.0000	290.9
292		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-20.3598	0.0000	306.1
293		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-20.4045	0.0000	297.6
294		Monmouth	NEC	-20.5113	0.0000	292.9
295		Coppin St.	MEAC	-20.5305	0.0000	281.7
296		Georgia St.	CAA	-20.8458	0.0000	275.6
297		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-20.9616	0.0000	310.5
298		Campbell	ASun	-20.9652	0.0000	307.3
299		Stony Brook	AE	-21.2278	0.0000	304.3
300		Florida International	SB	-21.2843	0.0000	280.3
301		Charleston Southern	BSth	-21.3020	0.0000	301.5
302		UC Riverside	BW	-21.3335	0.0000	278.5
303		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-21.5391	0.0000	311.1
304		Savannah St.	ind	-21.5874	0.0000	308.5
305		Rice	CUSA	-21.6859	0.0000	280.5
306		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-21.7323	0.0000	322.1
307		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-21.7466	0.0000	280.7
308		Radford	BSth	-22.0215	0.0000	305.7
309		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-22.1405	0.0000	292.3
310		Jackson St.	SWAC	-22.2119	0.0000	309.9
311		Maine	AE	-22.2127	0.0000	307.2
312		Idaho	WAC	-22.2505	0.0000	306.0
313		Grambling	SWAC	-22.3447	0.0000	322.2
314		Western Carolina	SC	-22.3585	0.0000	304.2
315		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-22.3649	0.0000	327.2
316		Texas Pan American	ind	-22.4750	0.0000	328.9
317		Sacramento St.	BSky	-22.5025	0.0000	313.8
318		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-22.5700	0.0000	312.9
319		Western Illinois	Sum	-22.6406	0.0000	302.4
320		Furman	SC	-22.7042	0.0000	311.9
321		Canisius	MAAC	-22.9906	0.0000	314.1
322		Howard	MEAC	-23.0024	0.0000	311.5
323		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-23.0419	0.0000	291.2
324		Longwood	ind	-23.2063	0.0000	328.4
325		Ball St.	MAC	-23.2069	0.0000	304.0
326		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-23.4045	0.0000	330.9
327		Idaho St.	BSky	-23.5234	0.0000	321.2
328		North Carolina Central	ind	-23.5292	0.0000	322.5
329		Northern Illinois	MAC	-23.6512	0.0000	310.7
330		The Citadel	SC	-23.6579	0.0000	313.8
331		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-23.6828	0.0000	311.7
332		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-23.7812	0.0000	340.8
333		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-23.8474	0.0000	319.7
334		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-24.0289	0.0000	337.7
335		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-24.0402	0.0000	330.5
336		Presbyterian	ind	-24.0645	0.0000	328.6
337		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-24.1429	0.0000	336.9
338		Florida A&M	MEAC	-24.3313	0.0000	325.5
339		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-24.5791	0.0000	337.2
340		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-24.7022	0.0000	338.0
341		North Florida	ASun	-24.9501	0.0000	338.5

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com