Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Nov 20, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	8.7921	1.0000	1.8
2		Duke	ACC	8.3955	1.0000	2.1
3	X	Florida	SEC	7.0961	1.0000	8.8
4		UCLA	P10	6.7909	1.0000	6.7
5	X	Memphis	CUSA	6.5065	1.0000	10.4
6	X	Wisconsin	B10	6.1352	1.0000	13.8
7	X	West Virginia	BE	6.0248	1.0000	14.6
8	X	Stanford	P10	5.5146	1.0000	13.2
9	X	Kansas	B12	5.4698	1.0000	13.3
10		Louisville	BE	5.4540	1.0000	13.2
11	X	Gonzaga	WCC	5.2239	1.0000	16.2
12		Syracuse	BE	4.7865	1.0000	12.8
13		Missouri	B12	4.6597	1.0000	18.2
14		Tennessee	SEC	4.6360	1.0000	15.8
15		Notre Dame	BE	4.5915	1.0000	19.9
16		Michigan St.	B10	4.5028	1.0000	17.2
17		Texas	B12	4.1113	1.0000	15.7
18		Indiana	B10	4.0923	1.0000	24.1
19	X	Xavier	A10	4.0913	1.0000	21.3
20	X	Brigham Young	MWC	4.0263	1.0000	26.7
21		Clemson	ACC	3.9803	1.0000	22.9
22		Virginia	ACC	3.7130	0.9999	22.7
23		Georgetown	BE	3.5941	0.9998	26.5
24		Oklahoma	B12	3.5368	0.9998	23.1
25		Mississippi	SEC	3.3165	0.9995	30.5
26		Baylor	B12	3.2543	0.9994	26.5
27		Illinois	B10	2.7738	0.9972	26.8
28		Duquesne	A10	2.5185	0.9941	39.0
29		Pittsburgh	BE	2.5174	0.9941	32.1
30	X	Holy Cross	Pat	2.2003	0.9861	30.3
31		Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	1.9609	0.9751	31.5
32		Texas A&M	B12	1.5361	0.9377	37.0
33	X	Butler	Horz	1.2812	0.8999	49.8
34		Washington St.	P10	1.2563	0.8955	43.6
35		Connecticut	BE	1.1918	0.8833	39.3
36		Southern Illinois	MVC	1.1442	0.8737	41.1
37	X	Nevada	WAC	1.1072	0.8659	47.0
38	X	Davidson	SC	0.9981	0.8409	56.5
39	X	Siena	MAAC	0.9876	0.8383	49.9
40		Vanderbilt	SEC	0.9619	0.8319	40.4
41	X	Creighton	MVC	0.9026	0.8166	49.9
42		Northern Iowa	MVC	0.8807	0.8108	47.6
43		Miami FL	ACC	0.8265	0.7957	41.2
44		Arkansas	SEC	0.5817	0.7196	44.5
45		Villanova	BE	0.4385	0.6695	52.7
46		Oregon	P10	0.3810	0.6484	49.0
47	X	Miami OH	MAC	0.3744	0.6459	56.4
48		New Mexico	MWC	0.1747	0.5693	50.0
49		Western Kentucky	SB	0.1405	0.5559	62.0
50		Rhode Island	A10	0.1219	0.5485	51.9
51	X	Winthrop	BSth	0.1076	0.5428	63.5
52		Bucknell	Pat	0.0635	0.5253	51.4
53		Saint Joseph's	A10	-0.1017	0.4595	51.2
54		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-0.2728	0.3925	57.2
55		Missouri St.	MVC	-0.5127	0.3041	60.4
56	X	North Dakota St.	Sum	-0.6328	0.2634	74.6
57		Boston College	ACC	-0.6408	0.2608	49.6
58		Massachusetts	A10	-0.7443	0.2283	50.9
59		Arizona	P10	-0.8324	0.2026	48.3
60		Marquette	BE	-0.8342	0.2021	57.6
61	X	Texas Arlington	Slnd	-0.9188	0.1791	69.4
62		Mississippi St.	SEC	-0.9571	0.1693	56.6
63	X	UC Santa Barbara	BW	-1.0452	0.1480	69.5
64		Houston	CUSA	-1.3053	0.0959	68.0
65	X	South Alabama	SB	-1.4233	0.0773	70.1
66		Kansas St.	B12	-1.4785	0.0696	63.1
67		Maryland	ACC	-1.4818	0.0692	55.0
68		Minnesota	B10	-1.5363	0.0622	63.7
69		George Mason	CAA	-1.6081	0.0539	69.2
70		Southern California	P10	-1.6375	0.0508	68.1
71		South Carolina	SEC	-1.6962	0.0449	63.6
72		Ohio St.	B10	-1.7745	0.0380	68.1
73		San Diego St.	MWC	-1.7968	0.0362	65.1
74		Santa Clara	WCC	-2.0699	0.0192	77.1
75		Penn St.	B10	-2.2607	0.0119	70.6
76		Old Dominion	CAA	-2.2660	0.0117	77.0
77		St. Mary's	WCC	-2.5046	0.0061	84.2
78		Georgia Tech	ACC	-2.9326	0.0017	73.6
79		Manhattan	MAAC	-3.1035	0.0010	97.5
80		Georgia	SEC	-3.1130	0.0009	75.5
81		Florida St.	ACC	-3.1602	0.0008	80.6
82		Seton Hall	BE	-3.6355	0.0001	74.7
83		Washington	P10	-3.6954	0.0001	87.3
84		Tulane	CUSA	-3.8603	0.0001	98.1
85		James Madison	CAA	-3.9065	0.0000	97.9
86	X	Albany	AE	-3.9392	0.0000	102.3
87		Michigan	B10	-3.9796	0.0000	80.4
88		Providence	BE	-4.0702	0.0000	80.9
89	X	Belmont	ASun	-4.1864	0.0000	112.2
90	X	Northeastern	CAA	-4.2081	0.0000	96.3
91		North Texas	SB	-4.3893	0.0000	107.8
92		Drexel	CAA	-4.6899	0.0000	101.8
93		Hofstra	CAA	-4.7609	0.0000	101.0
94		Texas Tech	B12	-4.8513	0.0000	91.4
95		Ohio	MAC	-5.0106	0.0000	105.6
96		Virginia Tech	ACC	-5.0784	0.0000	92.9
97		St. Louis	A10	-5.1425	0.0000	92.7
98	X	Montana	BSky	-5.2054	0.0000	115.3
99		Illinois St.	MVC	-5.2206	0.0000	102.9
100		Wright St.	Horz	-5.3729	0.0000	112.9
101		DePaul	BE	-5.4437	0.0000	91.6
102		Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-5.4718	0.0000	111.1
103		Hawaii	WAC	-5.4795	0.0000	119.3
104		Kentucky	SEC	-5.5629	0.0000	90.9
105		UAB	CUSA	-5.7459	0.0000	112.4
106		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-5.7760	0.0000	121.4
107		Valparaiso	Horz	-5.8060	0.0000	115.0
108		Utah	MWC	-5.8408	0.0000	99.1
109		Colgate	Pat	-5.8882	0.0000	115.6
110	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-5.9195	0.0000	132.3
111		Northern Arizona	BSky	-6.2008	0.0000	126.6
112		George Washington	A10	-6.2880	0.0000	113.8
113		Hampton	MEAC	-6.5221	0.0000	134.0
114	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-6.6041	0.0000	135.6
115		Monmouth	NEC	-6.6299	0.0000	139.7
116		Texas Christian	MWC	-6.6451	0.0000	111.1
117	X	Yale	Ivy	-6.6759	0.0000	132.7
118		Niagara	MAAC	-6.7140	0.0000	127.8
119		Central Florida	CUSA	-6.9572	0.0000	129.6
120		Kent St.	MAC	-7.0553	0.0000	131.6
121		Alabama	SEC	-7.0566	0.0000	104.7
122		San Francisco	WCC	-7.2080	0.0000	126.7
123		NC Asheville	BSth	-7.2137	0.0000	135.1
124		Temple	A10	-7.2240	0.0000	124.2
125		North Carolina St.	ACC	-7.2416	0.0000	117.0
126		Charlotte	A10	-7.2456	0.0000	116.6
127	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-7.4475	0.0000	150.9
128		New Orleans	SB	-7.5270	0.0000	143.2
129		St. John's	BE	-7.5748	0.0000	115.2
130		Dayton	A10	-7.7096	0.0000	115.7
131		Northwestern	B10	-7.8275	0.0000	123.2
132		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-7.8338	0.0000	144.5
133		Colorado St.	MWC	-7.8546	0.0000	114.0
134		Oklahoma St.	B12	-8.0624	0.0000	116.7
135		Harvard	Ivy	-8.0838	0.0000	144.4
136		Rutgers	BE	-8.2739	0.0000	123.7
137		California	P10	-8.2948	0.0000	116.2
138		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-8.4223	0.0000	160.3
139		Bowling Green	MAC	-8.4450	0.0000	148.9
140		Cal Poly	BW	-8.4758	0.0000	145.3
141		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-8.4796	0.0000	146.9
142		New Hampshire	AE	-8.6926	0.0000	152.8
143		Drake	MVC	-8.7045	0.0000	139.5
144		New Mexico St.	WAC	-8.7237	0.0000	146.4
145		Cleveland St.	Horz	-8.8101	0.0000	148.3
146		Towson	CAA	-8.8103	0.0000	148.1
147		Portland St.	BSky	-8.9149	0.0000	156.9
148		Air Force	MWC	-9.0660	0.0000	136.7
149		Montana St.	BSky	-9.1422	0.0000	160.0
150		Pacific	BW	-9.1721	0.0000	154.9
151		Appalachian St.	SC	-9.1969	0.0000	161.9
152		Marshall	CUSA	-9.5039	0.0000	149.0
153		Fordham	A10	-9.5324	0.0000	140.1
154		Western Michigan	MAC	-9.5492	0.0000	164.4
155		Wichita St.	MVC	-9.5972	0.0000	138.8
156		Gardner Webb	ASun	-9.6266	0.0000	165.8
157		Tulsa	CUSA	-9.6514	0.0000	156.4
158		Arizona St.	P10	-9.6617	0.0000	134.4
159		Georgia Southern	SC	-9.6774	0.0000	159.8
160		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-9.9462	0.0000	151.5
161		Wake Forest	ACC	-9.9669	0.0000	144.6
162		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-9.9748	0.0000	156.1
163		Iowa	B10	-10.0591	0.0000	140.8
164		Boise St.	WAC	-10.0633	0.0000	164.2
165		Auburn	SEC	-10.1093	0.0000	139.0
166		Bradley	MVC	-10.1319	0.0000	146.6
167		Vermont	AE	-10.1566	0.0000	174.5
168		Central Michigan	MAC	-10.3346	0.0000	173.5
169		Chattanooga	SC	-10.4958	0.0000	170.6
170		UC Irvine	BW	-10.7285	0.0000	165.0
171		Colorado	B12	-10.7928	0.0000	154.1
172		Louisiana St.	SEC	-10.8475	0.0000	144.4
173		Oakland	Sum	-10.8552	0.0000	175.8
174		Jacksonville	ASun	-10.9782	0.0000	188.1
175		Toledo	MAC	-11.0594	0.0000	171.4
176		Purdue	B10	-11.1831	0.0000	153.7
177		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-11.3157	0.0000	195.3
178		San Diego	WCC	-11.3646	0.0000	162.4
179		IUPUI	Sum	-11.4184	0.0000	187.3
180		Marist	MAAC	-11.4404	0.0000	171.6
181		NC Greensboro	SC	-11.4695	0.0000	185.9
182		Murray St.	OVC	-11.7549	0.0000	194.8
183		Utah Valley St.	ind	-11.7819	0.0000	200.7
184		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-12.2054	0.0000	184.5
185		Iowa St.	B12	-12.2743	0.0000	170.1
186		Cornell	Ivy	-12.4409	0.0000	197.9
187		Lehigh	Pat	-12.4985	0.0000	185.2
188		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-12.5984	0.0000	197.5
189		San Jose St.	WAC	-12.6360	0.0000	194.6
190		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-12.6577	0.0000	195.7
191		Elon	SC	-12.6637	0.0000	198.3
192		Detroit	Horz	-12.6703	0.0000	189.5
193		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-12.6784	0.0000	182.5
194		South Florida	BE	-12.7171	0.0000	174.3
195		Rider	MAAC	-12.8946	0.0000	200.5
196		NC Wilmington	CAA	-12.9351	0.0000	186.8
197		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-13.0596	0.0000	196.2
198		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-13.1475	0.0000	195.4
199		Nebraska	B12	-13.1889	0.0000	176.4
200		Indiana St.	MVC	-13.3227	0.0000	175.8
201		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-13.3405	0.0000	205.5
202		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-13.3725	0.0000	205.8
203		American	Pat	-13.4213	0.0000	200.6
204		Boston University	AE	-13.4614	0.0000	199.7
205		Wagner	NEC	-13.4868	0.0000	216.2
206		High Point	BSth	-13.8269	0.0000	218.2
207		Princeton	Ivy	-13.8616	0.0000	215.7
208		MD Baltimore County	AE	-13.8996	0.0000	214.7
209		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-13.9262	0.0000	216.5
210		Brown	Ivy	-13.9313	0.0000	212.4
211		Oral Roberts	Sum	-13.9618	0.0000	213.3
212		Arkansas St.	SB	-14.1402	0.0000	215.5
213		Middle Tennessee	SB	-14.2560	0.0000	204.8
214		Western Illinois	Sum	-14.3743	0.0000	217.1
215		Central Connecticut	NEC	-14.3848	0.0000	229.6
216		Loyola MD	MAAC	-14.4362	0.0000	210.6
217		Cincinnati	BE	-14.4840	0.0000	181.1
218		Iona	MAAC	-14.4933	0.0000	210.8
219		Youngstown St.	Horz	-14.5114	0.0000	209.2
220		McNeese St.	Slnd	-14.5192	0.0000	228.3
221		Mercer	ASun	-14.6649	0.0000	237.8
222		Weber St.	BSky	-15.1543	0.0000	225.7
223		College of Charleston	SC	-15.1899	0.0000	218.4
224		Akron	MAC	-15.2239	0.0000	222.7
225		Long Island	NEC	-15.2296	0.0000	236.5
226		St. Peter's	MAAC	-15.3856	0.0000	223.0
227		Furman	SC	-15.4212	0.0000	226.3
228		Utah St.	WAC	-15.4774	0.0000	225.9
229		Texas Southern	SWAC	-15.8290	0.0000	241.4
230		Fresno St.	WAC	-15.9855	0.0000	224.2
231		Grambling	SWAC	-15.9922	0.0000	249.1
232		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-16.0724	0.0000	244.0
233		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-16.1583	0.0000	242.0
234	X	Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-16.1964	0.0000	251.0
235		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-16.2048	0.0000	249.5
236		Western Carolina	SC	-16.2328	0.0000	237.4
237		St. Francis NY	NEC	-16.3082	0.0000	250.5
238		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-16.3115	0.0000	241.5
239		Samford	OVC	-16.3346	0.0000	249.5
240		Troy	SB	-16.3611	0.0000	229.4
241		Hartford	AE	-16.4890	0.0000	239.8
242		Northern Colorado	BSky	-16.5023	0.0000	250.8
243		Navy	Pat	-16.6359	0.0000	233.2
244		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-16.7258	0.0000	240.7
245		Delaware	CAA	-16.9730	0.0000	231.0
246		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-17.1122	0.0000	260.9
247		Chicago St.	ind	-17.1135	0.0000	256.7
248		Richmond	A10	-17.1796	0.0000	235.6
249		Fairfield	MAAC	-17.2428	0.0000	240.2
250		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-17.3831	0.0000	261.9
251		Morehead St.	OVC	-17.4163	0.0000	257.7
252		Alabama St.	SWAC	-17.4598	0.0000	270.5
253		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-17.5176	0.0000	251.7
254		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-17.5751	0.0000	254.0
255		Wofford	SC	-17.5867	0.0000	250.9
256		Wyoming	MWC	-17.6675	0.0000	228.6
257		Lipscomb	ASun	-17.8654	0.0000	270.5
258		Eastern Washington	BSky	-17.9277	0.0000	249.8
259		Texas St.	Slnd	-18.0156	0.0000	259.8
260		Lafayette	Pat	-18.0181	0.0000	248.4
261		Jackson St.	SWAC	-18.0346	0.0000	273.3
262		Buffalo	MAC	-18.1247	0.0000	249.3
263		Pepperdine	WCC	-18.1685	0.0000	244.3
264		Oregon St.	P10	-18.2211	0.0000	227.4
265		William & Mary	CAA	-18.2728	0.0000	244.8
266		Southern	SWAC	-18.3152	0.0000	276.0
267		Northern Illinois	MAC	-18.5608	0.0000	260.2
268		Idaho St.	BSky	-18.5841	0.0000	266.5
269		Centenary	Sum	-18.6687	0.0000	265.3
270		Florida International	SB	-18.7084	0.0000	254.4
271		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-18.8414	0.0000	281.3
272		Tennessee St.	OVC	-18.8657	0.0000	270.2
273		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-19.0396	0.0000	271.9
274		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-19.0436	0.0000	271.0
275		St. Bonaventure	A10	-19.0715	0.0000	244.5
276		Portland	WCC	-19.1155	0.0000	259.6
277		Long Beach St.	BW	-19.2167	0.0000	267.3
278		Dartmouth	Ivy	-19.3444	0.0000	280.2
279		Ball St.	MAC	-19.3463	0.0000	268.9
280		UC Davis	BW	-19.4417	0.0000	277.3
281		Maine	AE	-19.4776	0.0000	276.4
282		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-19.7931	0.0000	273.9
283		Liberty	BSth	-19.9168	0.0000	281.5
284		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-19.9297	0.0000	281.7
285		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-20.0792	0.0000	284.6
286		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-20.0907	0.0000	297.5
287		Denver	SB	-20.3522	0.0000	278.4
288		UC Riverside	BW	-20.5015	0.0000	277.0
289		Southern Utah	Sum	-20.5556	0.0000	284.8
290		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-20.7429	0.0000	297.1
291		South Dakota St.	Sum	-20.7592	0.0000	290.1
292		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-20.8075	0.0000	289.8
293		Rice	CUSA	-20.8831	0.0000	270.4
294		East Carolina	CUSA	-20.9718	0.0000	281.8
295		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-20.9803	0.0000	286.4
296		Stony Brook	AE	-21.1380	0.0000	299.6
297		Florida Atlantic	SB	-21.1524	0.0000	280.4
298		Idaho	WAC	-21.1749	0.0000	290.5
299		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-21.1941	0.0000	301.9
300		St. Francis PA	NEC	-21.2359	0.0000	296.1
301		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-21.2832	0.0000	312.8
302		Lamar	Slnd	-21.3247	0.0000	299.0
303		Columbia	Ivy	-21.3477	0.0000	301.8
304		Campbell	ASun	-21.3861	0.0000	307.3
305		Texas Pan American	ind	-21.4782	0.0000	316.5
306		Radford	BSth	-21.6030	0.0000	297.9
307		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-21.7217	0.0000	315.3
308		Evansville	MVC	-22.0067	0.0000	272.0
309		Savannah St.	ind	-22.0340	0.0000	312.2
310		Coppin St.	MEAC	-22.1238	0.0000	306.5
311		Delaware St.	MEAC	-22.2258	0.0000	310.7
312		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-22.3266	0.0000	306.1
313		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-22.3601	0.0000	327.8
314		Howard	MEAC	-22.3751	0.0000	313.9
315		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-22.4148	0.0000	313.7
316		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-22.4251	0.0000	327.3
317		Longwood	ind	-22.4258	0.0000	321.9
318		Quinnipiac	NEC	-22.4605	0.0000	318.4
319		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-22.4728	0.0000	324.5
320		Binghamton	AE	-22.4818	0.0000	317.5
321		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-22.5845	0.0000	315.4
322		Army	Pat	-22.7563	0.0000	308.0
323		North Carolina Central	ind	-22.7780	0.0000	318.0
324		Charleston Southern	BSth	-22.8826	0.0000	316.2
325		La Salle	A10	-22.9107	0.0000	282.1
326		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-22.9570	0.0000	299.8
327		Stetson	ASun	-22.9903	0.0000	319.8
328		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-23.0086	0.0000	324.0
329		Sacred Heart	NEC	-23.0776	0.0000	314.9
330		Canisius	MAAC	-23.1025	0.0000	306.8
331		North Florida	ASun	-23.2251	0.0000	324.1
332		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-23.3680	0.0000	333.1
333		Florida A&M	MEAC	-23.3725	0.0000	319.6
334		Sacramento St.	BSky	-23.7750	0.0000	315.8
335		Georgia St.	CAA	-23.8048	0.0000	302.3
336		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-24.0201	0.0000	340.0
337		Presbyterian	ind	-24.4591	0.0000	333.0
338		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-24.6309	0.0000	321.3
339		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-24.9891	0.0000	335.6
340		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-25.6177	0.0000	340.6
341		The Citadel	SC	-26.2290	0.0000	335.0

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com