Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive

Through games of Jan 20, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	UCLA	P10	8.8880	1.0000	1.6
2	X	North Carolina	ACC	8.2670	1.0000	1.9
3		Wisconsin	B10	7.5070	1.0000	7.1
4		Pittsburgh	BE	7.3045	1.0000	5.6
5	X	Florida	SEC	7.1209	1.0000	11.5
6	X	Texas A&M	B12	6.9178	1.0000	9.4
7		Arizona	P10	6.2920	1.0000	7.2
8	X	Ohio St.	B10	6.1338	1.0000	10.6
9		Air Force	MWC	6.0996	1.0000	16.4
10		Duke	ACC	6.0374	1.0000	4.0
11		Kentucky	SEC	5.9012	1.0000	9.4
12		Clemson	ACC	5.4034	1.0000	15.6
13	X	Memphis	CUSA	5.3674	1.0000	13.2
14		Indiana	B10	5.1811	1.0000	18.0
15		Oregon	P10	4.6180	1.0000	17.1
16		Georgia Tech	ACC	4.4775	1.0000	22.4
17	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	4.3612	1.0000	21.4
18		Washington St.	P10	4.3407	1.0000	29.5
19		Kansas	B12	4.0806	1.0000	25.9
20	X	Villanova	BE	4.0802	1.0000	11.2
21	X	Butler	Horz	4.0628	1.0000	30.5
22		Alabama	SEC	3.8265	0.9999	19.9
23		Oklahoma St.	B12	3.6949	0.9999	21.6
24		Notre Dame	BE	3.3973	0.9997	33.8
25		Georgetown	BE	3.2919	0.9995	28.9
26		Tennessee	SEC	3.2490	0.9994	20.1
27	X	Nevada	WAC	3.1427	0.9992	34.0
28		Michigan St.	B10	3.0719	0.9989	21.5
29	X	Missouri St.	MVC	3.0631	0.9989	25.2
30		Marquette	BE	2.8628	0.9979	24.2
31		Georgia	SEC	2.8615	0.9979	35.7
32	X	Xavier	A10	2.8241	0.9976	38.6
33		Southern Illinois	MVC	2.5362	0.9944	32.3
34		Maryland	ACC	2.3119	0.9896	23.4
35		Syracuse	BE	1.9802	0.9762	32.4
36		Texas	B12	1.7884	0.9631	44.6
37		Virginia Tech	ACC	1.6478	0.9503	39.3
38		Arkansas	SEC	1.5737	0.9422	30.7
39		Boston College	ACC	1.3683	0.9144	39.3
40		Purdue	B10	1.3600	0.9131	43.2
41		Florida St.	ACC	1.1243	0.8696	36.2
42		Texas Tech	B12	0.9208	0.8214	37.4
43		West Virginia	BE	0.7086	0.7607	45.3
44		Connecticut	BE	0.5313	0.7024	43.9
45		Creighton	MVC	0.4365	0.6688	49.7
46		Michigan	B10	0.3591	0.6402	45.9
47	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.3445	0.6348	57.0
48		Southern California	P10	0.3192	0.6252	50.2
49		Drexel	CAA	0.2686	0.6059	56.1
50		Stanford	P10	0.1771	0.5703	47.8
51		Mississippi St.	SEC	-0.0300	0.4880	49.1
52	X	Gonzaga	WCC	-0.1838	0.4271	59.6
53		Northern Iowa	MVC	-0.1862	0.4262	61.8
54		Illinois	B10	-0.2146	0.4151	42.1
55		Brigham Young	MWC	-0.2538	0.3998	54.6
56		Louisiana St.	SEC	-0.2811	0.3893	49.0
57		California	P10	-0.2860	0.3874	48.5
58		Providence	BE	-0.6979	0.2426	53.1
59		Oklahoma	B12	-0.9750	0.1648	55.0
60		Bradley	MVC	-0.9973	0.1593	54.1
61	X	Winthrop	BSth	-1.0713	0.1420	81.7
62		Massachusetts	A10	-1.0776	0.1406	69.4
63		Louisville	BE	-1.1184	0.1317	55.9
64	X	Western Kentucky	SB	-1.2946	0.0977	73.3
65		Vanderbilt	SEC	-1.4824	0.0691	60.9
66		New Mexico St.	WAC	-1.4826	0.0691	79.1
67	X	Pennsylvania	Ivy	-1.6189	0.0527	75.0
68	X	Davidson	SC	-1.8524	0.0320	78.9
69		Appalachian St.	SC	-1.8949	0.0291	92.6
70		Old Dominion	CAA	-1.9115	0.0280	70.2
71		Missouri	B12	-2.2050	0.0137	59.7
72		Kansas St.	B12	-2.2513	0.0122	65.8
73		Colorado St.	MWC	-2.2746	0.0115	75.2
74		Wichita St.	MVC	-2.2875	0.0111	69.7
75		Dayton	A10	-2.3576	0.0092	73.1
76		Virginia	ACC	-2.5519	0.0054	71.0
77		Ohio	MAC	-2.6127	0.0045	83.1
78		Nebraska	B12	-2.8576	0.0021	77.6
79		DePaul	BE	-2.9975	0.0014	68.7
80	X	Akron	MAC	-3.0507	0.0011	93.2
81		George Washington	A10	-3.1437	0.0008	84.7
82		San Diego St.	MWC	-3.1479	0.0008	77.4
83	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-3.1860	0.0007	84.7
84	X	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-3.1921	0.0007	89.4
85		Hofstra	CAA	-3.2310	0.0006	97.7
86		George Mason	CAA	-3.6887	0.0001	95.2
87		Utah St.	WAC	-3.7084	0.0001	82.0
88		St. Louis	A10	-3.8729	0.0001	91.8
89		Washington	P10	-4.1026	0.0000	74.1
90		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-4.1898	0.0000	97.1
91		Santa Clara	WCC	-4.2478	0.0000	95.1
92		Marist	MAAC	-4.4164	0.0000	112.6
93		Fresno St.	WAC	-4.5309	0.0000	100.2
94	X	Long Beach St.	BW	-4.5475	0.0000	106.7
95		Indiana St.	MVC	-4.5662	0.0000	89.3
96		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-4.6233	0.0000	109.1
97		Boise St.	WAC	-4.8785	0.0000	102.7
98		UAB	CUSA	-5.0320	0.0000	98.1
99		Wyoming	MWC	-5.2498	0.0000	104.6
100		Mississippi	SEC	-5.3345	0.0000	84.8
101		Houston	CUSA	-5.3687	0.0000	98.6
102	X	Oral Roberts	MCon	-5.4359	0.0000	120.1
103		Iowa	B10	-5.4984	0.0000	94.0
104		Tulsa	CUSA	-5.5576	0.0000	103.8
105		Auburn	SEC	-5.5698	0.0000	89.9
106		Fordham	A10	-5.6035	0.0000	112.9
107		Kent St.	MAC	-5.9644	0.0000	119.5
108		Saint Joseph's	A10	-5.9932	0.0000	101.9
109		Vermont	AE	-6.0936	0.0000	129.2
110		Cincinnati	BE	-6.1964	0.0000	99.2
111		Belmont	ASun	-6.3067	0.0000	138.9
112		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-6.3243	0.0000	123.2
113		Baylor	B12	-6.3302	0.0000	93.6
114		Albany	AE	-6.3806	0.0000	127.5
115		Hawaii	WAC	-6.3820	0.0000	110.1
116		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-6.5375	0.0000	116.8
117		New Mexico	MWC	-6.5556	0.0000	104.6
118		Toledo	MAC	-6.5846	0.0000	124.7
119		College of Charleston	SC	-6.8033	0.0000	128.8
120		Samford	OVC	-6.8208	0.0000	143.8
121		Oakland	MCon	-6.9729	0.0000	130.6
122		Bucknell	Pat	-7.0537	0.0000	137.1
123		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-7.1194	0.0000	142.4
124		Seton Hall	BE	-7.1402	0.0000	99.3
125	X	Idaho St.	BSky	-7.1910	0.0000	129.9
126		Utah	MWC	-7.2357	0.0000	125.3
127		Central Florida	CUSA	-7.2863	0.0000	138.0
128		South Carolina	SEC	-7.4209	0.0000	96.6
129		Austin Peay	OVC	-7.4672	0.0000	149.6
130		Evansville	MVC	-7.5836	0.0000	105.1
131		South Alabama	SB	-7.6749	0.0000	138.0
132	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-7.6847	0.0000	149.6
133		Charlotte	A10	-7.6859	0.0000	123.0
134		Sacred Heart	NEC	-7.7398	0.0000	147.9
135		Temple	A10	-7.7657	0.0000	126.0
136		North Carolina St.	ACC	-8.0245	0.0000	105.4
137		Penn St.	B10	-8.1820	0.0000	114.7
138		Middle Tennessee	SB	-8.2475	0.0000	148.8
139	X	Delaware St.	MEAC	-8.2682	0.0000	152.8
140		Western Michigan	MAC	-8.5048	0.0000	150.0
141	X	East Tennessee St.	ASun	-8.5799	0.0000	161.8
142		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-8.7162	0.0000	160.1
143		Utah Valley St.	ind	-8.8935	0.0000	160.3
144		Northwestern	B10	-8.9425	0.0000	120.4
145		Rhode Island	A10	-9.0651	0.0000	135.3
146		St. Mary's	WCC	-9.2051	0.0000	144.2
147		Marshall	CUSA	-9.2853	0.0000	148.3
148		Illinois St.	MVC	-9.3352	0.0000	125.9
149	X	Tennessee Tech	OVC	-9.4563	0.0000	167.0
150		Miami OH	MAC	-9.4567	0.0000	142.4
151	X	Siena	MAAC	-9.5014	0.0000	160.6
152		Wright St.	Horz	-9.5328	0.0000	154.5
153		Drake	MVC	-9.6737	0.0000	118.3
154		Loyola MD	MAAC	-9.6801	0.0000	178.4
155	X	Jackson St.	SWAC	-9.7427	0.0000	177.8
156		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-9.7965	0.0000	166.3
157		North Dakota St.	ind	-9.8484	0.0000	175.8
158		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-9.8724	0.0000	147.0
159		Wake Forest	ACC	-9.9522	0.0000	132.1
160		Towson	CAA	-10.1802	0.0000	145.1
161		Rice	CUSA	-10.2137	0.0000	168.0
162		North Texas	SB	-10.4538	0.0000	179.7
163		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-10.4860	0.0000	165.0
164		Miami FL	ACC	-10.4932	0.0000	147.2
165		Army	Pat	-10.6295	0.0000	164.6
166		San Diego	WCC	-10.6324	0.0000	173.6
167		Lipscomb	ASun	-10.6740	0.0000	181.8
168		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-10.6933	0.0000	179.7
169		Manhattan	MAAC	-10.7806	0.0000	190.7
170		St. John's	BE	-10.8629	0.0000	132.7
171		Princeton	Ivy	-11.0849	0.0000	179.3
172		Iowa St.	B12	-11.2560	0.0000	146.0
173		High Point	BSth	-11.2727	0.0000	184.4
174		UC Irvine	BW	-11.3449	0.0000	179.1
175		Southern Utah	MCon	-11.4342	0.0000	186.4
176		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-11.4862	0.0000	181.2
177		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-11.5284	0.0000	190.8
178		NC Greensboro	SC	-11.7290	0.0000	196.3
179		Texas Christian	MWC	-11.8671	0.0000	153.9
180		Arkansas St.	SB	-11.8850	0.0000	198.0
181		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-11.9236	0.0000	191.9
182		Rider	MAAC	-11.9633	0.0000	194.3
183		Navy	Pat	-11.9876	0.0000	184.4
184		Valparaiso	MCon	-12.0642	0.0000	191.5
185		South Florida	BE	-12.0857	0.0000	148.9
186		Minnesota	B10	-12.1110	0.0000	153.1
187		Buffalo	MAC	-12.1417	0.0000	182.8
188		Cornell	Ivy	-12.2375	0.0000	196.4
189		William & Mary	CAA	-12.4466	0.0000	172.6
190		Youngstown St.	Horz	-12.6410	0.0000	188.9
191		Furman	SC	-12.7388	0.0000	197.8
192		San Francisco	WCC	-12.7874	0.0000	192.8
193		Eastern Washington	BSky	-12.8153	0.0000	203.9
194	X	Boston University	AE	-12.9120	0.0000	201.7
195		Northern Arizona	BSky	-12.9540	0.0000	212.3
196		Portland St.	BSky	-13.0556	0.0000	204.3
197		Yale	Ivy	-13.0930	0.0000	192.4
198		Canisius	MAAC	-13.0950	0.0000	206.2
199		Harvard	Ivy	-13.1796	0.0000	191.8
200		Detroit	Horz	-13.2439	0.0000	194.0
201		Lehigh	Pat	-13.3277	0.0000	210.4
202		Columbia	Ivy	-13.4999	0.0000	204.8
203		Pacific	BW	-13.5919	0.0000	202.0
204		Weber St.	BSky	-13.6360	0.0000	210.2
205		Brown	Ivy	-13.7010	0.0000	219.2
206		Niagara	MAAC	-13.7426	0.0000	221.9
207		Oregon St.	P10	-13.7454	0.0000	156.9
208		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-13.7901	0.0000	218.1
209		Hartford	AE	-13.9710	0.0000	213.4
210		Morehead St.	OVC	-14.0755	0.0000	230.4
211		Rutgers	BE	-14.1303	0.0000	167.8
212		Lamar	Slnd	-14.3514	0.0000	225.8
213		Jacksonville	ASun	-14.3689	0.0000	223.9
214		Bowling Green	MAC	-14.4275	0.0000	210.1
215		American	Pat	-14.4610	0.0000	215.3
216		Central Connecticut	NEC	-14.5495	0.0000	231.6
217		New Orleans	SB	-14.6574	0.0000	223.4
218		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-14.7071	0.0000	205.4
219		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-14.8144	0.0000	231.6
220		Monmouth	NEC	-14.9498	0.0000	224.0
221		Murray St.	OVC	-14.9678	0.0000	232.3
222		Northeastern	CAA	-15.0429	0.0000	196.2
223		MD Baltimore County	AE	-15.1440	0.0000	227.3
224		Ball St.	MAC	-15.1684	0.0000	219.2
225		Montana	BSky	-15.1729	0.0000	229.0
226		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-15.3715	0.0000	241.3
227		Cal Poly	BW	-15.3881	0.0000	238.0
228		Maine	AE	-15.4057	0.0000	232.2
229		Troy	SB	-15.5182	0.0000	231.3
230		Chicago St.	MCon	-15.5229	0.0000	215.1
231		Texas Southern	SWAC	-15.5918	0.0000	240.0
232		La Salle	A10	-15.6296	0.0000	215.7
233		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-15.6983	0.0000	234.7
234		Chattanooga	SC	-15.7192	0.0000	223.4
235		Arizona St.	P10	-15.8073	0.0000	184.3
236		Stony Brook	AE	-15.8255	0.0000	237.6
237		IUPUI	MCon	-15.8709	0.0000	240.4
238		Tennessee St.	OVC	-15.8783	0.0000	236.9
239		Florida Atlantic	SB	-16.1841	0.0000	236.2
240		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-16.3042	0.0000	243.1
241		Tulane	CUSA	-16.3112	0.0000	226.8
242		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-16.4000	0.0000	215.6
243		Georgia Southern	SC	-16.4677	0.0000	242.6
244		Hampton	MEAC	-16.5716	0.0000	246.6
245		Central Michigan	MAC	-16.6813	0.0000	241.4
246		Florida A&M	MEAC	-16.7183	0.0000	253.8
247		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-16.8841	0.0000	219.6
248		Georgia St.	CAA	-16.8931	0.0000	220.6
249		Western Carolina	SC	-16.9330	0.0000	239.0
250		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-17.0593	0.0000	261.0
251		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-17.1282	0.0000	259.5
252		Campbell	ASun	-17.1360	0.0000	253.5
253		NC Wilmington	CAA	-17.3045	0.0000	229.5
254		Mercer	ASun	-17.3568	0.0000	267.6
255		Fairfield	MAAC	-17.4835	0.0000	240.1
256		Quinnipiac	NEC	-17.6669	0.0000	269.6
257		Binghamton	AE	-17.7079	0.0000	262.2
258		Pepperdine	WCC	-17.8121	0.0000	244.1
259		Dartmouth	Ivy	-17.8413	0.0000	250.5
260		New Hampshire	AE	-17.8483	0.0000	267.0
261		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-17.9012	0.0000	266.0
262		Duquesne	A10	-17.9776	0.0000	250.1
263		Colorado	B12	-18.0015	0.0000	211.0
264		Texas Pan American	ind	-18.0483	0.0000	273.1
265		Stetson	ASun	-18.2970	0.0000	266.5
266		Grambling	SWAC	-18.7355	0.0000	283.7
267		San Jose St.	WAC	-18.9082	0.0000	239.3
268		Missouri Kansas City	MCon	-19.0388	0.0000	273.1
269		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-19.1109	0.0000	263.4
270		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-19.1918	0.0000	286.2
271		Gardner Webb	ASun	-19.2213	0.0000	271.4
272		McNeese St.	Slnd	-19.2496	0.0000	276.0
273		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-19.2804	0.0000	273.9
274		Lafayette	Pat	-19.2971	0.0000	269.2
275		Howard	MEAC	-19.4183	0.0000	293.0
276		IUPU Fort Wayne	ind	-19.4501	0.0000	286.6
277		Cleveland St.	Horz	-19.5951	0.0000	269.5
278		UC Davis	ind	-19.6531	0.0000	286.4
279		Florida International	SB	-19.7024	0.0000	277.7
280		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-19.8146	0.0000	280.4
281		NC Asheville	BSth	-19.8433	0.0000	284.1
282		Alabama St.	SWAC	-20.0666	0.0000	292.5
283		Southern	SWAC	-20.0756	0.0000	292.3
284		Centenary	MCon	-20.1050	0.0000	279.4
285		Savannah St.	ind	-20.1560	0.0000	283.8
286		Richmond	A10	-20.3474	0.0000	261.0
287		James Madison	CAA	-20.5073	0.0000	277.8
288		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-20.5123	0.0000	299.3
289		Northern Illinois	MAC	-20.5490	0.0000	286.1
290		Colgate	Pat	-20.5759	0.0000	284.5
291		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-20.6482	0.0000	299.5
292		Liberty	BSth	-20.7508	0.0000	291.8
293		Radford	BSth	-20.7721	0.0000	293.2
294		Long Island	NEC	-20.8338	0.0000	306.5
295		Portland	WCC	-20.8619	0.0000	280.6
296		Montana St.	BSky	-20.9521	0.0000	304.1
297		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-21.1411	0.0000	301.1
298		St. Francis NY	NEC	-21.2198	0.0000	295.0
299		Coppin St.	MEAC	-21.2279	0.0000	284.6
300		St. Bonaventure	A10	-21.3276	0.0000	289.5
301		Wagner	NEC	-21.3685	0.0000	304.3
302		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-21.4668	0.0000	296.1
303		The Citadel	SC	-21.5150	0.0000	282.8
304		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-21.5300	0.0000	304.7
305		Sacramento St.	BSky	-21.5891	0.0000	302.6
306		Delaware	CAA	-21.6417	0.0000	282.2
307		Wofford	SC	-21.6625	0.0000	295.1
308		Morgan St.	MEAC	-21.7577	0.0000	316.1
309		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-21.9172	0.0000	310.5
310		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-21.9655	0.0000	313.8
311		Idaho	WAC	-22.0264	0.0000	276.3
312		Elon	SC	-22.1217	0.0000	294.4
313		Texas St.	Slnd	-22.1420	0.0000	306.2
314		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-22.3228	0.0000	307.4
315		Longwood	ind	-22.3675	0.0000	304.9
316		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-22.4110	0.0000	326.4
317		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-22.7017	0.0000	308.6
318		South Dakota St.	ind	-22.7296	0.0000	319.8
319		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-22.8731	0.0000	327.9
320		East Carolina	CUSA	-23.0135	0.0000	312.1
321		St. Peter's	MAAC	-23.0266	0.0000	318.2
322		Winston Salem St.	ind	-23.0599	0.0000	319.8
323		St. Francis PA	NEC	-23.2026	0.0000	323.5
324		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-23.2664	0.0000	328.9
325		Iona	MAAC	-23.4334	0.0000	319.3
326		UC Riverside	BW	-23.4996	0.0000	323.1
327		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-23.6040	0.0000	325.0
328		Charleston Southern	BSth	-23.6263	0.0000	325.0
329		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-23.6534	0.0000	309.0
330		Western Illinois	MCon	-23.7387	0.0000	330.1
331		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-23.7932	0.0000	329.7
332		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-23.8910	0.0000	331.5
333		Denver	SB	-23.9144	0.0000	327.6
334		Northern Colorado	BSky	-23.9708	0.0000	332.3
335		North Florida	ASun	-24.6255	0.0000	335.0
336		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-25.3020	0.0000	331.9

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, and to Jay Colemen for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com