Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive

Through games of Feb 20, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	Florida	SEC	8.6086	1.0000	6.4
2	X	UCLA	P10	8.5150	1.0000	1.2
3	X	Ohio St.	B10	8.1063	1.0000	3.9
4	X	North Carolina	ACC	8.0676	1.0000	2.0
5		Pittsburgh	BE	7.1372	1.0000	3.7
6		Wisconsin	B10	7.0863	1.0000	6.3
7	X	Kansas	B12	6.6878	1.0000	11.9
8		Southern Illinois	MVC	6.3618	1.0000	11.4
9		Kentucky	SEC	6.1862	1.0000	7.0
10		Texas A&M	B12	5.9443	1.0000	12.1
11	X	Nevada	WAC	5.7272	1.0000	20.3
12	X	Georgetown	BE	5.6646	1.0000	13.3
13	X	Memphis	CUSA	5.6355	1.0000	10.7
14		Duke	ACC	4.8918	1.0000	6.6
15		Washington St.	P10	4.8013	1.0000	25.5
16	X	Butler	Horz	4.7753	1.0000	27.3
17	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	4.6755	1.0000	16.2
18		Arizona	P10	4.4819	1.0000	11.5
19		Air Force	MWC	4.1288	1.0000	20.6
20		Boston College	ACC	3.7135	0.9999	22.8
21		Maryland	ACC	3.5790	0.9998	15.5
22		Virginia Tech	ACC	3.5618	0.9998	27.5
23		Brigham Young	MWC	3.2889	0.9995	27.4
24		Tennessee	SEC	3.2296	0.9994	19.0
25		Clemson	ACC	3.2043	0.9993	31.8
26		Marquette	BE	3.0552	0.9989	18.0
27		Michigan St.	B10	3.0256	0.9988	20.3
28		Vanderbilt	SEC	2.6737	0.9962	35.6
29		Virginia	ACC	2.6566	0.9961	35.9
30		Villanova	BE	2.4787	0.9934	20.6
31	X	Xavier	A10	2.3808	0.9914	41.8
32		Creighton	MVC	2.3331	0.9902	42.3
33		Louisville	BE	2.2698	0.9884	36.5
34		Georgia Tech	ACC	2.2295	0.9871	39.4
35		Notre Dame	BE	2.1524	0.9843	49.7
36		Texas	B12	2.1114	0.9826	46.6
37		Alabama	SEC	1.9965	0.9771	29.2
38		Purdue	B10	1.9901	0.9767	39.3
39		Indiana	B10	1.9468	0.9742	32.5
40		Stanford	P10	1.7564	0.9605	39.8
41		Southern California	P10	1.5532	0.9398	47.7
42	X	Missouri St.	MVC	1.4710	0.9294	33.2
43		Oregon	P10	1.3936	0.9183	33.9
44		Illinois	B10	1.1221	0.8691	32.7
45		Old Dominion	CAA	1.0585	0.8551	45.8
46		Oklahoma St.	B12	1.0579	0.8549	41.7
47		Georgia	SEC	0.7033	0.7591	47.3
48		Appalachian St.	SC	0.4679	0.6801	70.3
49		Providence	BE	0.2082	0.5825	48.1
50	X	Winthrop	BSth	0.1414	0.5562	75.8
51		Drexel	CAA	-0.1325	0.4473	58.2
52	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-0.2303	0.4089	57.6
53		San Diego St.	MWC	-0.3383	0.3676	56.9
54		Syracuse	BE	-0.3485	0.3637	46.2
55		Massachusetts	A10	-0.3568	0.3606	67.5
56		Arkansas	SEC	-0.5163	0.3028	41.6
57		Mississippi St.	SEC	-0.5557	0.2892	55.1
58		West Virginia	BE	-0.6460	0.2591	56.8
59	X	Davidson	SC	-0.7158	0.2370	67.0
60		Florida St.	ACC	-0.7351	0.2311	41.9
61		Michigan	B10	-0.8201	0.2061	51.5
62		New Mexico St.	WAC	-0.9628	0.1678	74.9
63		Kansas St.	B12	-1.0852	0.1389	64.7
64	X	Gonzaga	WCC	-1.0879	0.1383	69.2
65		Texas Tech	B12	-1.0939	0.1370	47.1
66		Santa Clara	WCC	-1.1460	0.1259	73.9
67	X	Akron	MAC	-1.2745	0.1012	78.4
68		Missouri	B12	-1.4874	0.0685	58.5
69		Bradley	MVC	-1.5139	0.0650	46.1
70		Utah St.	WAC	-1.7217	0.0426	64.3
71		Hofstra	CAA	-1.7253	0.0422	83.4
72		Mississippi	SEC	-1.7295	0.0419	63.1
73		DePaul	BE	-1.8205	0.0343	61.1
74		St. Louis	A10	-1.8680	0.0309	80.9
75		Vermont	AE	-2.1074	0.0175	90.2
76		Nebraska	B12	-2.3838	0.0086	75.4
77	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-2.7647	0.0028	79.7
78		Washington	P10	-2.8081	0.0025	70.7
79		Wright St.	Horz	-2.8411	0.0022	94.0
80		California	P10	-3.1025	0.0010	66.6
81	X	Pennsylvania	Ivy	-3.2252	0.0006	95.3
82	X	Western Kentucky	SB	-3.2828	0.0005	94.6
83		Northern Iowa	MVC	-3.3110	0.0005	84.9
84		Dayton	A10	-3.3351	0.0004	79.8
85		Oklahoma	B12	-3.4050	0.0003	71.3
86		Iowa	B10	-3.7326	0.0001	82.7
87		Saint Joseph's	A10	-3.7559	0.0001	86.4
88	X	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-3.8155	0.0001	97.9
89		Hawaii	WAC	-3.8284	0.0001	91.1
90		Houston	CUSA	-3.9526	0.0000	89.9
91		Bucknell	Pat	-4.0326	0.0000	105.8
92		Connecticut	BE	-4.1123	0.0000	70.4
93		Wichita St.	MVC	-4.1390	0.0000	85.3
94		Fresno St.	WAC	-4.1752	0.0000	91.7
95		Kent St.	MAC	-4.2397	0.0000	100.5
96		Boise St.	WAC	-4.3070	0.0000	103.1
97	X	Long Beach St.	BW	-4.4468	0.0000	106.0
98		Rhode Island	A10	-4.6095	0.0000	101.1
99	X	Oral Roberts	MCon	-4.6885	0.0000	108.2
100	X	Marist	MAAC	-4.7044	0.0000	114.8
101		South Alabama	SB	-5.0343	0.0000	116.0
102		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-5.2214	0.0000	116.4
103		Louisiana St.	SEC	-5.2314	0.0000	75.9
104		South Carolina	SEC	-5.3288	0.0000	84.3
105		Albany	AE	-5.4381	0.0000	116.7
106		Central Florida	CUSA	-5.4665	0.0000	119.4
107		George Washington	A10	-5.4734	0.0000	100.4
108		Ohio	MAC	-5.4816	0.0000	107.8
109		Toledo	MAC	-5.7165	0.0000	115.5
110		North Carolina St.	ACC	-5.7636	0.0000	90.1
111	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-5.7809	0.0000	131.7
112		Wyoming	MWC	-5.8124	0.0000	113.8
113		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-5.8872	0.0000	120.5
114		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-5.8894	0.0000	101.0
115		Tulsa	CUSA	-5.9011	0.0000	107.3
116		Colorado St.	MWC	-6.2387	0.0000	114.3
117		Auburn	SEC	-6.2519	0.0000	93.6
118		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-6.4067	0.0000	140.3
119		College of Charleston	SC	-6.5697	0.0000	122.1
120		Fordham	A10	-6.7180	0.0000	123.2
121	X	Belmont	ASun	-6.7344	0.0000	143.9
122		St. John's	BE	-6.7989	0.0000	103.6
123		Wake Forest	ACC	-7.0155	0.0000	108.8
124		Utah	MWC	-7.1814	0.0000	120.0
125		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-7.5498	0.0000	147.0
126		UAB	CUSA	-7.5800	0.0000	123.0
127		Utah Valley St.	ind	-7.5817	0.0000	146.6
128		Miami OH	MAC	-7.6207	0.0000	123.6
129		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-7.7162	0.0000	147.0
130		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-7.7556	0.0000	146.2
131		Yale	Ivy	-7.9408	0.0000	144.5
132	X	Central Connecticut	NEC	-8.0804	0.0000	159.4
133		Siena	MAAC	-8.0854	0.0000	145.5
134		New Mexico	MWC	-8.0866	0.0000	121.2
135		Oakland	MCon	-8.0954	0.0000	143.4
136	X	Delaware St.	MEAC	-8.1745	0.0000	152.0
137		Niagara	MAAC	-8.2141	0.0000	159.8
138		Drake	MVC	-8.2413	0.0000	112.4
139		Western Michigan	MAC	-8.3313	0.0000	146.1
140		North Texas	SB	-8.3742	0.0000	159.5
141		Indiana St.	MVC	-8.5927	0.0000	126.3
142		Illinois St.	MVC	-8.6129	0.0000	120.9
143		Temple	A10	-8.8780	0.0000	140.1
144		Seton Hall	BE	-8.9203	0.0000	122.3
145		George Mason	CAA	-8.9523	0.0000	134.3
146		Evansville	MVC	-9.0754	0.0000	112.0
147		Weber St.	BSky	-9.0952	0.0000	159.3
148		Iowa St.	B12	-9.1024	0.0000	124.8
149		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-9.1698	0.0000	168.0
150		Cornell	Ivy	-9.6237	0.0000	166.4
151		Rice	CUSA	-9.7849	0.0000	158.4
152		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-9.8678	0.0000	152.1
153		Cincinnati	BE	-9.8799	0.0000	134.3
154		Robert Morris	NEC	-9.9491	0.0000	172.5
155		Towson	CAA	-9.9912	0.0000	147.4
156		Samford	OVC	-9.9918	0.0000	175.4
157		North Dakota St.	ind	-10.1657	0.0000	181.8
158		Loyola MD	MAAC	-10.2068	0.0000	185.0
159		Charlotte	A10	-10.2389	0.0000	137.1
160		Valparaiso	MCon	-10.3256	0.0000	172.5
161		Lipscomb	ASun	-10.5922	0.0000	175.4
162		Marshall	CUSA	-10.5948	0.0000	167.5
163	X	Idaho St.	BSky	-10.6960	0.0000	166.2
164		Northwestern	B10	-10.8276	0.0000	133.1
165		St. Mary's	WCC	-10.8332	0.0000	161.1
166		High Point	BSth	-10.8982	0.0000	184.8
167		Baylor	B12	-10.9187	0.0000	129.8
168		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-10.9895	0.0000	167.4
169		Sacred Heart	NEC	-11.0091	0.0000	187.7
170		Miami FL	ACC	-11.0536	0.0000	148.7
171		San Francisco	WCC	-11.1587	0.0000	165.0
172		Minnesota	B10	-11.2875	0.0000	141.6
173		William & Mary	CAA	-11.2990	0.0000	162.8
174		Youngstown St.	Horz	-11.3026	0.0000	167.3
175		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-11.3927	0.0000	164.2
176		Florida Atlantic	SB	-11.4045	0.0000	182.5
177		Cal Poly	BW	-11.4046	0.0000	189.9
178		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-11.4491	0.0000	184.8
179		Northern Arizona	BSky	-11.5405	0.0000	198.9
180		Middle Tennessee	SB	-11.5483	0.0000	178.1
181		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-11.6069	0.0000	171.7
182		Duquesne	A10	-11.6619	0.0000	193.1
183		Penn St.	B10	-11.8569	0.0000	143.0
184		Tulane	CUSA	-11.9251	0.0000	187.7
185		Pacific	BW	-11.9624	0.0000	179.8
186		Jacksonville	ASun	-11.9675	0.0000	195.3
187		Murray St.	OVC	-11.9880	0.0000	202.0
188		UC Irvine	BW	-12.1336	0.0000	187.3
189		Southern Utah	MCon	-12.3265	0.0000	195.3
190		Rider	MAAC	-12.4039	0.0000	200.2
191	X	Jackson St.	SWAC	-12.5059	0.0000	202.7
192		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-12.5682	0.0000	177.0
193		San Diego	WCC	-12.7135	0.0000	188.9
194		NC Greensboro	SC	-12.8107	0.0000	206.5
195		South Florida	BE	-12.8389	0.0000	155.4
196		Furman	SC	-13.2145	0.0000	204.0
197		American	Pat	-13.2837	0.0000	199.3
198		Fairfield	MAAC	-13.4216	0.0000	197.5
199		Manhattan	MAAC	-13.5718	0.0000	225.7
200		Rutgers	BE	-13.5824	0.0000	169.0
201		Hampton	MEAC	-13.5899	0.0000	214.7
202		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-13.6047	0.0000	210.9
203		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-13.6175	0.0000	213.7
204		Montana	BSky	-13.6916	0.0000	217.1
205		Arkansas St.	SB	-13.7719	0.0000	218.6
206		Texas Christian	MWC	-13.7737	0.0000	179.8
207		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-13.7983	0.0000	214.7
208		Columbia	Ivy	-13.8262	0.0000	209.0
209	X	Boston University	AE	-13.9727	0.0000	205.7
210		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-14.1829	0.0000	198.4
211		IUPUI	MCon	-14.2128	0.0000	215.9
212		Detroit	Horz	-14.2130	0.0000	193.7
213		Portland St.	BSky	-14.2353	0.0000	216.7
214		New Orleans	SB	-14.3225	0.0000	211.3
215		Harvard	Ivy	-14.4528	0.0000	207.9
216		Chattanooga	SC	-14.5880	0.0000	210.2
217		Lehigh	Pat	-14.6701	0.0000	220.3
218		Northeastern	CAA	-14.6791	0.0000	196.3
219		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-14.6863	0.0000	234.2
220		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-14.6930	0.0000	231.1
221		Florida A&M	MEAC	-14.7560	0.0000	233.8
222		Eastern Washington	BSky	-14.8799	0.0000	222.0
223		Quinnipiac	NEC	-15.0926	0.0000	241.8
224		Navy	Pat	-15.1159	0.0000	217.9
225		Lamar	Slnd	-15.2702	0.0000	236.1
226		Princeton	Ivy	-15.2752	0.0000	224.6
227		Oregon St.	P10	-15.3716	0.0000	165.1
228		Brown	Ivy	-15.5862	0.0000	240.1
229		Buffalo	MAC	-15.5871	0.0000	219.9
230		Hartford	AE	-15.5986	0.0000	233.6
231		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-15.6367	0.0000	230.8
232		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-15.7458	0.0000	237.7
233		Ball St.	MAC	-15.8894	0.0000	224.3
234		MD Baltimore County	AE	-15.9675	0.0000	232.8
235		Canisius	MAAC	-16.1341	0.0000	241.2
236		Colorado	B12	-16.2995	0.0000	208.6
237		Central Michigan	MAC	-16.4184	0.0000	242.4
238		Troy	SB	-16.5282	0.0000	237.1
239		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-16.5711	0.0000	248.8
240		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-16.5815	0.0000	236.3
241		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-16.6095	0.0000	247.9
242		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-16.7734	0.0000	226.6
243		Arizona St.	P10	-16.7891	0.0000	193.2
244		Maine	AE	-16.9880	0.0000	256.0
245		Monmouth	NEC	-16.9883	0.0000	243.0
246		Bowling Green	MAC	-17.0855	0.0000	239.7
247		Army	Pat	-17.1473	0.0000	234.2
248		Florida International	SB	-17.3486	0.0000	254.1
249		IUPU Fort Wayne	ind	-17.3971	0.0000	260.3
250		Texas Southern	SWAC	-17.5597	0.0000	258.6
251		Binghamton	AE	-17.5744	0.0000	253.8
252		Mercer	ASun	-17.7733	0.0000	267.7
253		San Jose St.	WAC	-17.7822	0.0000	226.0
254		McNeese St.	Slnd	-17.8096	0.0000	261.0
255		Tennessee St.	OVC	-18.0544	0.0000	261.0
256		Dartmouth	Ivy	-18.1122	0.0000	255.0
257		Missouri Kansas City	MCon	-18.1320	0.0000	263.5
258		Gardner Webb	ASun	-18.3754	0.0000	258.6
259		Montana St.	BSky	-18.6261	0.0000	279.5
260		Colgate	Pat	-18.7433	0.0000	260.8
261		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-18.7898	0.0000	281.0
262		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-18.8062	0.0000	272.7
263		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-18.8137	0.0000	277.3
264		Chicago St.	MCon	-18.8450	0.0000	247.7
265		La Salle	A10	-18.8536	0.0000	243.5
266		Savannah St.	ind	-19.1034	0.0000	269.8
267		Georgia St.	CAA	-19.1515	0.0000	232.1
268		Stetson	ASun	-19.2371	0.0000	275.7
269		Texas Pan American	ind	-19.2906	0.0000	286.3
270		Campbell	ASun	-19.3468	0.0000	276.4
271		Stony Brook	AE	-19.3509	0.0000	268.3
272		New Hampshire	AE	-19.3878	0.0000	278.2
273		Grambling	SWAC	-19.4451	0.0000	292.2
274		Western Carolina	SC	-19.4793	0.0000	256.5
275		Coppin St.	MEAC	-19.4817	0.0000	266.6
276		Portland	WCC	-19.5319	0.0000	259.5
277		Wagner	NEC	-19.5855	0.0000	287.5
278		Georgia Southern	SC	-19.5873	0.0000	267.7
279		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-19.7114	0.0000	280.5
280		Morehead St.	OVC	-19.7636	0.0000	292.3
281		Liberty	BSth	-19.8967	0.0000	288.0
282		Morgan St.	MEAC	-19.9177	0.0000	303.5
283		Cleveland St.	Horz	-19.9595	0.0000	266.5
284		Pepperdine	WCC	-20.0669	0.0000	265.5
285		Centenary	MCon	-20.1325	0.0000	276.3
286		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-20.1665	0.0000	291.6
287		NC Wilmington	CAA	-20.3303	0.0000	256.4
288		Northern Illinois	MAC	-20.4243	0.0000	283.9
289		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-20.5079	0.0000	302.8
290		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-20.5383	0.0000	295.5
291		James Madison	CAA	-20.7355	0.0000	284.8
292		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-20.8156	0.0000	295.5
293		Long Island	NEC	-20.9114	0.0000	306.7
294		Alabama St.	SWAC	-20.9903	0.0000	299.7
295		Southern	SWAC	-21.0946	0.0000	298.8
296		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-21.1177	0.0000	306.3
297		Lafayette	Pat	-21.1906	0.0000	281.6
298		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-21.2437	0.0000	318.9
299		St. Bonaventure	A10	-21.2502	0.0000	282.1
300		UC Davis	ind	-21.2506	0.0000	309.7
301		Richmond	A10	-21.3696	0.0000	270.5
302		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-21.4949	0.0000	312.2
303		Sacramento St.	BSky	-21.6361	0.0000	301.9
304		St. Francis NY	NEC	-21.6417	0.0000	298.8
305		Delaware	CAA	-21.6452	0.0000	287.2
306		NC Asheville	BSth	-21.7497	0.0000	298.3
307		Howard	MEAC	-21.9366	0.0000	318.9
308		Longwood	ind	-22.0797	0.0000	299.6
309		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-22.0944	0.0000	310.5
310		Wofford	SC	-22.2388	0.0000	294.9
311		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-22.4576	0.0000	298.2
312		Radford	BSth	-22.4653	0.0000	314.3
313		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-22.4843	0.0000	327.5
314		UC Riverside	BW	-22.5352	0.0000	313.8
315		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-22.5764	0.0000	314.8
316		Texas St.	Slnd	-22.5846	0.0000	315.3
317		Winston Salem St.	ind	-22.7972	0.0000	317.3
318		Elon	SC	-22.8451	0.0000	298.4
319		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-23.0294	0.0000	327.1
320		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-23.0910	0.0000	322.0
321		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-23.1636	0.0000	328.0
322		South Dakota St.	ind	-23.4867	0.0000	326.8
323		East Carolina	CUSA	-23.6639	0.0000	316.1
324		Idaho	WAC	-23.6889	0.0000	297.6
325		Western Illinois	MCon	-23.7269	0.0000	327.4
326		St. Peter's	MAAC	-23.7474	0.0000	326.4
327		The Citadel	SC	-23.8612	0.0000	303.5
328		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-23.8800	0.0000	319.1
329		Iona	MAAC	-23.9843	0.0000	322.1
330		St. Francis PA	NEC	-24.1814	0.0000	327.7
331		Charleston Southern	BSth	-24.1958	0.0000	328.1
332		Northern Colorado	BSky	-24.1995	0.0000	334.6
333		Denver	SB	-24.3111	0.0000	331.7
334		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-24.5257	0.0000	332.2
335		North Florida	ASun	-24.8437	0.0000	334.6
336		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-26.1129	0.0000	335.6

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, and to Jay Colemen for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com