Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Tournament Projections Archive

Through games of Dec 20, 2008.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	9.2203	1.0000	2.2
2		Duke	ACC	8.5896	1.0000	2.3
3	X	Pittsburgh	BE	7.9312	1.0000	3.8
4		Oklahoma	B12	7.6353	1.0000	5.5
5		Georgetown	BE	6.6730	1.0000	5.9
6		Connecticut	BE	6.3276	1.0000	8.6
7		Clemson	ACC	5.8836	1.0000	10.7
8		Ohio St.	B10	5.8250	1.0000	13.4
9	X	Xavier	A10	5.6997	1.0000	14.5
10	X	Kansas	B12	5.6947	1.0000	12.7
11	X	Purdue	B10	5.6833	1.0000	17.7
12		West Virginia	BE	5.5236	1.0000	13.2
13	X	Tennessee	SEC	5.2568	1.0000	11.0
14		Missouri	B12	4.8291	1.0000	16.2
15	X	Gonzaga	WCC	4.6861	1.0000	22.2
16		Louisville	BE	4.5127	1.0000	16.8
17		Texas	B12	4.1568	1.0000	19.4
18		Illinois	B10	4.1045	1.0000	22.1
19		Syracuse	BE	3.9603	1.0000	18.7
20	X	Memphis	CUSA	3.8977	1.0000	23.4
21		Villanova	BE	3.7133	0.9999	25.3
22	X	Butler	Horz	3.6418	0.9999	32.9
23		Michigan St.	B10	3.4583	0.9997	24.9
24		Baylor	B12	3.3579	0.9996	23.4
25		Maryland	ACC	3.1844	0.9993	24.3
26		Kentucky	SEC	3.1493	0.9992	29.0
27		Wake Forest	ACC	3.0952	0.9990	26.9
28	X	Brigham Young	MWC	2.8429	0.9978	31.3
29		Arizona St.	P10	2.6063	0.9954	32.0
30		Florida	SEC	2.4215	0.9923	34.8
31		Miami FL	ACC	2.4201	0.9922	33.1
32	X	UCLA	P10	2.3112	0.9896	36.1
33		Michigan	B10	2.1460	0.9841	32.3
34		Notre Dame	BE	2.1309	0.9834	37.3
35	X	Davidson	SC	1.6015	0.9454	57.0
36		Northwestern	B10	1.4960	0.9327	36.8
37	X	Creighton	MVC	1.3618	0.9134	51.0
38		Oklahoma St.	B12	1.3319	0.9086	32.6
39		Kansas St.	B12	1.2576	0.8957	46.1
40		Utah	MWC	1.1135	0.8672	40.5
41		Dayton	A10	0.9696	0.8339	45.7
42	X	Utah St.	WAC	0.8584	0.8047	47.7
43		Washington	P10	0.5140	0.6964	42.4
44		California	P10	0.3726	0.6453	44.2
45		Wisconsin	B10	0.1065	0.5424	44.6
46		Houston	CUSA	-0.0797	0.4682	64.1
47		Texas A&M	B12	-0.0885	0.4647	48.1
48		Stanford	P10	-0.1438	0.4428	52.0
49		Boston College	ACC	-0.2120	0.4161	53.2
50		Cincinnati	BE	-0.2323	0.4082	53.1
51		Florida St.	ACC	-0.3019	0.3814	45.8
52	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-0.4136	0.3396	64.5
53		Niagara	MAAC	-0.4224	0.3364	63.7
54		Temple	A10	-0.4653	0.3209	58.2
55		Minnesota	B10	-0.4664	0.3205	49.8
56		Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	-0.5576	0.2886	50.8
57		UAB	CUSA	-0.5828	0.2800	53.6
58		Arizona	P10	-0.6676	0.2522	49.8
59		Washington St.	P10	-0.7377	0.2303	58.8
60		St. Mary's	WCC	-0.8613	0.1945	69.5
61		George Mason	CAA	-1.1353	0.1281	70.7
62		Marquette	BE	-1.2550	0.1047	61.0
63		Nebraska	B12	-1.3112	0.0949	61.6
64	X	Siena	MAAC	-1.3669	0.0858	70.1
65		Vanderbilt	SEC	-1.3936	0.0817	59.4
66	X	Miami OH	MAC	-1.5155	0.0648	72.7
67		Texas Tech	B12	-1.5412	0.0616	54.5
68		South Carolina	SEC	-1.5462	0.0610	62.9
69		San Diego St.	MWC	-1.6510	0.0494	55.5
70		Georgia Tech	ACC	-1.6661	0.0478	64.3
71		Louisiana St.	SEC	-1.7105	0.0436	67.4
72		Illinois St.	MVC	-1.7947	0.0363	71.8
73		Rhode Island	A10	-1.8067	0.0354	74.6
74		Evansville	MVC	-1.8361	0.0332	65.7
75	X	Western Kentucky	SB	-1.9818	0.0237	76.9
76		Southern California	P10	-2.5637	0.0052	67.9
77		Tulsa	CUSA	-2.8301	0.0023	87.7
78		North Carolina St.	ACC	-2.8567	0.0021	70.4
79	X	Belmont	ASun	-2.8794	0.0020	100.3
80		Iowa	B10	-2.9115	0.0018	74.4
81		Arkansas	SEC	-3.0047	0.0013	70.7
82		Mississippi	SEC	-3.0941	0.0010	67.5
83		Cleveland St.	Horz	-3.1322	0.0009	83.5
84		Saint Joseph's	A10	-3.5865	0.0002	86.2
85		New Mexico	MWC	-3.7265	0.0001	82.2
86		Virginia Tech	ACC	-3.8979	0.0000	74.5
87		Penn St.	B10	-3.9986	0.0000	80.1
88		Seton Hall	BE	-4.0929	0.0000	89.6
89		Drake	MVC	-4.2005	0.0000	92.6
90		Akron	MAC	-4.3094	0.0000	101.3
91		College of Charleston	SC	-4.3606	0.0000	109.0
92		Hofstra	CAA	-4.5581	0.0000	103.8
93		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-4.5800	0.0000	112.4
94	X	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-4.6135	0.0000	109.3
95		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-4.6502	0.0000	90.2
96		Mississippi St.	SEC	-4.6594	0.0000	88.2
97		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-4.6844	0.0000	113.7
98	X	Vermont	AE	-4.7334	0.0000	108.9
99		Auburn	SEC	-5.2904	0.0000	96.4
100		Nevada	WAC	-5.3709	0.0000	107.0
101		Missouri St.	MVC	-5.3872	0.0000	99.9
102		East Carolina	CUSA	-5.3885	0.0000	109.9
103		Providence	BE	-5.4626	0.0000	93.5
104		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-5.7118	0.0000	123.6
105		St. John's	BE	-5.7406	0.0000	93.4
106		North Texas	SB	-5.7650	0.0000	112.6
107	X	Murray St.	OVC	-5.8145	0.0000	130.7
108		Jacksonville	ASun	-6.1399	0.0000	128.3
109		Arkansas St.	SB	-6.1834	0.0000	124.6
110		Old Dominion	CAA	-6.2359	0.0000	124.5
111		Fairfield	MAAC	-6.3448	0.0000	117.0
112		Massachusetts	A10	-6.3783	0.0000	113.9
113		Wichita St.	MVC	-6.5791	0.0000	118.6
114		Virginia	ACC	-6.5793	0.0000	94.3
115		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-6.5809	0.0000	131.9
116		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-6.5990	0.0000	125.0
117		Boston University	AE	-6.7293	0.0000	131.4
118		Albany	AE	-6.7657	0.0000	130.1
119		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-6.8020	0.0000	109.0
120		George Washington	A10	-6.8651	0.0000	118.4
121		New Mexico St.	WAC	-7.0521	0.0000	127.3
122	X	American	Pat	-7.1607	0.0000	138.7
123		Alabama	SEC	-7.2832	0.0000	112.3
124		Southern Illinois	MVC	-7.4160	0.0000	119.1
125		Duquesne	A10	-7.6855	0.0000	133.3
126		Austin Peay	OVC	-7.7362	0.0000	142.6
127		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-7.8438	0.0000	148.0
128	X	North Dakota St.	Sum	-7.9368	0.0000	149.4
129	X	Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-8.1229	0.0000	147.8
130	X	Pacific	BW	-8.1244	0.0000	147.7
131		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-8.1612	0.0000	142.3
132		DePaul	BE	-8.2332	0.0000	116.0
133		Charlotte	A10	-8.2451	0.0000	137.3
134		Buffalo	MAC	-8.2529	0.0000	141.1
135		Marshall	CUSA	-8.3628	0.0000	128.0
136		Texas Christian	MWC	-8.3802	0.0000	122.3
137		South Alabama	SB	-8.4532	0.0000	145.4
138		Lamar	Slnd	-8.4738	0.0000	156.1
139		Northeastern	CAA	-8.4992	0.0000	142.1
140		Ohio	MAC	-8.5347	0.0000	147.4
141		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-8.5583	0.0000	166.3
142		Middle Tennessee	SB	-8.5739	0.0000	150.2
143	X	Portland St.	BSky	-8.7300	0.0000	158.5
144		St. Louis	A10	-8.7343	0.0000	141.4
145		Georgia	SEC	-8.8303	0.0000	116.1
146		Manhattan	MAAC	-8.8527	0.0000	150.4
147		San Jose St.	WAC	-8.8652	0.0000	145.9
148		Bradley	MVC	-9.0253	0.0000	133.9
149		Oregon	P10	-9.2391	0.0000	115.5
150		Iowa St.	B12	-9.2823	0.0000	124.9
151		La Salle	A10	-9.3316	0.0000	138.1
152	X	Cornell	Ivy	-9.3420	0.0000	159.6
153		South Florida	BE	-9.4456	0.0000	132.5
154		Hawaii	WAC	-9.5248	0.0000	151.8
155	X	Liberty	BSth	-9.5606	0.0000	178.6
156		Central Connecticut	NEC	-9.6854	0.0000	168.6
157		Richmond	A10	-9.7956	0.0000	149.3
158		Navy	Pat	-9.8512	0.0000	170.0
159		Kent St.	MAC	-9.8798	0.0000	155.2
160		Binghamton	AE	-9.9617	0.0000	171.4
161		Rider	MAAC	-10.0016	0.0000	163.4
162		Colorado	B12	-10.1576	0.0000	139.3
163		Robert Morris	NEC	-10.1655	0.0000	176.3
164		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-10.4550	0.0000	172.7
165		Indiana	B10	-10.5051	0.0000	118.3
166		Rutgers	BE	-10.5360	0.0000	144.2
167		Presbyterian	BSth	-10.5478	0.0000	175.2
168		Utah Valley	ind	-10.6483	0.0000	186.6
169		Oakland	Sum	-10.6579	0.0000	173.7
170		Iona	MAAC	-10.6760	0.0000	167.7
171		Western Carolina	SC	-10.9714	0.0000	182.6
172		Boise St.	WAC	-10.9944	0.0000	163.6
173		Appalachian St.	SC	-11.0527	0.0000	183.5
174		Air Force	MWC	-11.0734	0.0000	151.7
175		Portland	WCC	-11.1364	0.0000	181.4
176		Idaho	WAC	-11.2082	0.0000	172.8
177		Montana St.	BSky	-11.4169	0.0000	188.1
178		San Francisco	WCC	-11.5121	0.0000	171.3
179		San Diego	WCC	-11.7218	0.0000	169.4
180		Lehigh	Pat	-11.7379	0.0000	192.3
181		Santa Clara	WCC	-11.7380	0.0000	176.6
182		Weber St.	BSky	-11.9351	0.0000	180.4
183		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-11.9454	0.0000	191.7
184		Fresno St.	WAC	-11.9823	0.0000	173.4
185		Long Beach St.	BW	-12.0244	0.0000	189.7
186		Drexel	CAA	-12.0443	0.0000	178.9
187		Wright St.	Horz	-12.2004	0.0000	180.9
188		Wofford	SC	-12.2052	0.0000	185.5
189		Wyoming	MWC	-12.2192	0.0000	161.9
190		St. Bonaventure	A10	-12.3346	0.0000	180.3
191		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-12.4345	0.0000	184.7
192		Oral Roberts	Sum	-12.5095	0.0000	199.8
193		Mercer	ASun	-12.6106	0.0000	191.8
194		Delaware	CAA	-12.8513	0.0000	188.6
195	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-12.9389	0.0000	210.0
196		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-13.0675	0.0000	206.0
197		Hampton	MEAC	-13.0710	0.0000	215.5
198		Georgia Southern	SC	-13.1247	0.0000	202.6
199		MD Baltimore County	AE	-13.1996	0.0000	203.6
200		Bowling Green	MAC	-13.4250	0.0000	202.2
201		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-13.4605	0.0000	206.5
202		Northern Arizona	BSky	-14.0598	0.0000	215.5
203		IUPUI	Sum	-14.1039	0.0000	226.3
204		UC Riverside	BW	-14.1444	0.0000	218.9
205		James Madison	CAA	-14.1722	0.0000	202.3
206		Gardner Webb	ASun	-14.1785	0.0000	214.4
207		Bucknell	Pat	-14.3645	0.0000	223.9
208		Savannah St.	ind	-14.3848	0.0000	213.3
209		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-14.4966	0.0000	217.5
210		Northern Iowa	MVC	-14.5510	0.0000	193.6
211		Central Florida	CUSA	-14.5648	0.0000	199.8
212		Maine	AE	-14.5756	0.0000	220.0
213		Towson	CAA	-14.5810	0.0000	201.6
214		Holy Cross	Pat	-14.6231	0.0000	233.4
215		Stetson	ASun	-14.6383	0.0000	213.9
216		Eastern Washington	BSky	-14.6509	0.0000	222.3
217		Chattanooga	SC	-14.6875	0.0000	216.0
218		Florida Atlantic	SB	-14.6964	0.0000	206.6
219		Stony Brook	AE	-14.8110	0.0000	229.8
220		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-14.8277	0.0000	209.6
221		Southern Utah	Sum	-14.8509	0.0000	230.3
222		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-14.9766	0.0000	231.3
223		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-15.0631	0.0000	224.6
224		Quinnipiac	NEC	-15.0855	0.0000	239.7
225		Colorado St.	MWC	-15.0910	0.0000	194.6
226		Cal Poly	BW	-15.2275	0.0000	227.2
227		Idaho St.	BSky	-15.2577	0.0000	221.2
228		Montana	BSky	-15.2832	0.0000	235.7
229		Tulane	CUSA	-15.2973	0.0000	204.4
230		Ball St.	MAC	-15.3376	0.0000	226.1
231		Wagner	NEC	-15.3512	0.0000	236.6
232		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-15.3520	0.0000	232.5
233		Coppin St.	MEAC	-15.4103	0.0000	239.5
234		William & Mary	CAA	-15.5235	0.0000	225.6
235		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-15.6529	0.0000	243.7
236		Brown	Ivy	-15.7200	0.0000	233.6
237		Long Island	NEC	-15.8261	0.0000	250.4
238		Florida International	SB	-15.8532	0.0000	217.6
239		McNeese St.	Slnd	-15.8631	0.0000	239.2
240		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-15.9586	0.0000	241.3
241		St. Francis NY	NEC	-16.0613	0.0000	243.1
242		Western Michigan	MAC	-16.5206	0.0000	243.9
243		Loyola MD	MAAC	-16.6378	0.0000	221.1
244		Rice	CUSA	-16.6571	0.0000	222.9
245		Denver	SB	-16.6717	0.0000	253.4
246		Valparaiso	Horz	-16.7271	0.0000	236.9
247		Canisius	MAAC	-16.7562	0.0000	226.8
248		Lipscomb	ASun	-16.7793	0.0000	254.6
249		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-16.9267	0.0000	242.6
250		Harvard	Ivy	-16.9325	0.0000	259.1
251		Northern Colorado	BSky	-17.0416	0.0000	254.7
252		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-17.0509	0.0000	258.4
253		Sacred Heart	NEC	-17.0987	0.0000	256.1
254		Marist	MAAC	-17.1456	0.0000	238.1
255		Troy	SB	-17.1908	0.0000	240.8
256		Jackson St.	SWAC	-17.5382	0.0000	264.9
257		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-17.7473	0.0000	249.7
258		Oregon St.	P10	-17.8173	0.0000	212.1
259		Indiana St.	MVC	-17.8545	0.0000	233.7
260		Campbell	ASun	-17.8728	0.0000	264.6
261		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-17.9761	0.0000	266.5
262		Hartford	AE	-17.9889	0.0000	247.8
263		Texas St.	Slnd	-18.0076	0.0000	273.3
264		Toledo	MAC	-18.0557	0.0000	256.9
265		UC Davis	BW	-18.0758	0.0000	270.6
266		NC Asheville	BSth	-18.1688	0.0000	274.4
267		St. Francis PA	NEC	-18.3659	0.0000	266.7
268	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-18.4046	0.0000	279.7
269		Yale	Ivy	-18.4778	0.0000	276.0
270		Delaware St.	MEAC	-18.5535	0.0000	272.6
271		Elon	SC	-18.6960	0.0000	263.0
272		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-18.7199	0.0000	274.4
273		New Orleans	SB	-18.8295	0.0000	266.5
274		Winthrop	BSth	-18.9314	0.0000	266.6
275		Chicago St.	ind	-19.0339	0.0000	284.9
276		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-19.1094	0.0000	272.1
277		New Hampshire	AE	-19.2087	0.0000	274.6
278		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-19.2632	0.0000	264.5
279		Georgia St.	CAA	-19.3944	0.0000	266.9
280		Detroit	Horz	-19.4084	0.0000	267.1
281		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-19.4245	0.0000	293.7
282		Princeton	Ivy	-19.5075	0.0000	291.8
283		Central Michigan	MAC	-19.5220	0.0000	275.7
284		Lafayette	Pat	-19.8101	0.0000	288.4
285		Army	Pat	-19.8658	0.0000	293.2
286		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-19.8848	0.0000	276.4
287		Tennessee St.	OVC	-19.9559	0.0000	284.8
288		Samford	SC	-19.9792	0.0000	282.2
289		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-20.0014	0.0000	292.8
290		Morehead St.	OVC	-20.0037	0.0000	286.5
291		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-20.0234	0.0000	281.2
292		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-20.1241	0.0000	255.1
293		South Dakota St.	Sum	-20.1425	0.0000	289.0
294		Columbia	Ivy	-20.1666	0.0000	294.5
295		Radford	BSth	-20.2190	0.0000	295.7
296		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-20.3090	0.0000	301.9
297		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-20.3320	0.0000	295.4
298		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-20.3627	0.0000	307.1
299		Longwood	ind	-20.4141	0.0000	298.1
300		The Citadel	SC	-20.7220	0.0000	281.2
301		Colgate	Pat	-20.9524	0.0000	302.6
302		NC Wilmington	CAA	-20.9679	0.0000	271.6
303		Youngstown St.	Horz	-20.9971	0.0000	284.9
304		Texas Pan American	ind	-21.0013	0.0000	308.7
305		Charleston Southern	BSth	-21.1507	0.0000	298.7
306		Winston Salem St.	ind	-21.3335	0.0000	310.4
307		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-21.3717	0.0000	311.9
308		St. Peter's	MAAC	-21.3722	0.0000	290.0
309		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-21.5226	0.0000	310.1
310		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-21.6499	0.0000	300.4
311		Bryant	ind	-21.8306	0.0000	316.9
312		Northern Illinois	MAC	-22.0631	0.0000	315.6
313		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-22.1357	0.0000	307.1
314		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-22.2748	0.0000	306.6
315		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-22.3035	0.0000	300.5
316		Texas Southern	SWAC	-22.3136	0.0000	314.2
317		UC Irvine	BW	-22.3582	0.0000	306.7
318		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-22.3739	0.0000	324.0
319		Fordham	A10	-22.4845	0.0000	292.4
320		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-22.5075	0.0000	302.7
321		Florida A&M	MEAC	-22.6975	0.0000	306.8
322		Monmouth	NEC	-22.8286	0.0000	313.5
323		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-23.0605	0.0000	312.3
324		Southern	SWAC	-23.1854	0.0000	335.0
325		Dartmouth	Ivy	-23.2408	0.0000	327.0
326		Sacramento St.	BSky	-23.2566	0.0000	326.2
327		Western Illinois	Sum	-23.3657	0.0000	324.6
328		Houston Baptist	ind	-23.3986	0.0000	327.7
329		Centenary	Sum	-23.4445	0.0000	316.4
330		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-23.6553	0.0000	322.3
331		Howard	MEAC	-23.6970	0.0000	331.9
332		Pepperdine	WCC	-23.9636	0.0000	315.1
333		High Point	BSth	-24.0562	0.0000	334.0
334		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-24.0570	0.0000	338.6
335		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-24.1148	0.0000	315.7
336		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-24.1583	0.0000	324.7
337		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-24.4266	0.0000	342.1
338		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-24.4496	0.0000	339.9
339		NC Greensboro	SC	-24.7359	0.0000	323.2
340		Furman	SC	-24.7740	0.0000	325.6
341		Grambling	SWAC	-25.0135	0.0000	341.9
342		North Florida	ASun	-25.3291	0.0000	334.3
343		North Carolina Central	ind	-26.0997	0.0000	338.1

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com