Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Jan 19, 2008.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	Duke	ACC	9.2373	1.0000	3.4
2		North Carolina	ACC	9.2035	1.0000	2.2
3	X	Kansas	B12	9.1280	1.0000	3.6
4	X	Tennessee	SEC	8.6249	1.0000	2.4
5	X	Memphis	CUSA	8.2864	1.0000	3.7
6	X	UCLA	P10	6.7000	1.0000	9.5
7		Indiana	B10	6.3020	1.0000	13.7
8		Marquette	BE	5.8101	1.0000	12.1
9	X	Xavier	A10	5.6435	1.0000	9.5
10		Washington St.	P10	5.6175	1.0000	16.1
11	X	Wisconsin	B10	5.5208	1.0000	13.1
12		Georgetown	BE	5.3084	1.0000	16.3
13		Michigan St.	B10	5.0726	1.0000	16.8
14	X	West Virginia	BE	5.0093	1.0000	15.7
15		Mississippi	SEC	4.7155	1.0000	18.5
16		Clemson	ACC	4.5031	1.0000	22.7
17		Pittsburgh	BE	4.1234	1.0000	18.2
18	X	Drake	MVC	4.1050	1.0000	21.2
19		Texas	B12	4.0838	1.0000	13.0
20		Arizona	P10	3.9373	1.0000	13.6
21		Rhode Island	A10	3.6660	0.9999	27.2
22	X	Butler	Horz	3.4842	0.9998	34.3
23	X	Gonzaga	WCC	3.4575	0.9997	33.0
24		St. Mary's	WCC	3.3786	0.9996	30.3
25		Stanford	P10	3.0760	0.9990	28.3
26		Ohio St.	B10	2.9576	0.9984	27.0
27		Dayton	A10	2.7945	0.9974	23.2
28		Vanderbilt	SEC	2.7215	0.9968	22.5
29		Texas A&M	B12	2.3375	0.9903	31.4
30		Oklahoma	B12	2.2623	0.9882	27.4
31		Florida	SEC	2.1232	0.9831	35.9
32		Louisville	BE	1.9585	0.9749	31.2
33		Southern California	P10	1.9070	0.9717	38.9
34		Notre Dame	BE	1.8254	0.9660	41.0
35		Baylor	B12	1.7746	0.9620	31.6
36		Kansas St.	B12	1.7152	0.9568	32.2
37		Oregon	P10	1.2962	0.9026	42.2
38		Mississippi St.	SEC	1.2759	0.8990	37.4
39		Illinois St.	MVC	1.2544	0.8951	46.9
40		Miami FL	ACC	1.2140	0.8876	37.1
41		Arkansas	SEC	1.1333	0.8715	37.8
42	X	South Alabama	SB	1.0954	0.8633	50.9
43	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.8704	0.8080	40.9
44		Massachusetts	A10	0.6775	0.7510	45.7
45		Providence	BE	0.6709	0.7489	47.6
46		Connecticut	BE	0.6466	0.7411	37.1
47		Florida St.	ACC	0.5924	0.7232	40.1
48		Creighton	MVC	0.4637	0.6786	48.6
49		George Mason	CAA	0.3292	0.6290	58.5
50		Brigham Young	MWC	0.1646	0.5654	55.9
51		Duquesne	A10	0.1627	0.5646	54.5
52		Arizona St.	P10	0.1157	0.5460	55.9
53		Kent St.	MAC	-0.0748	0.4702	64.5
54		Syracuse	BE	-0.1860	0.4262	38.7
55		Cleveland St.	Horz	-0.4740	0.3178	60.4
56		Villanova	BE	-0.6292	0.2646	58.3
57	X	Davidson	SC	-0.6381	0.2617	74.9
58		Missouri	B12	-0.6417	0.2605	53.3
59		San Diego St.	MWC	-0.9225	0.1781	61.4
60	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-1.0923	0.1374	72.0
61		New Mexico	MWC	-1.2303	0.1093	64.6
62		Saint Joseph's	A10	-1.2714	0.1018	58.4
63		Minnesota	B10	-1.3052	0.0959	60.7
64	X	Ohio	MAC	-1.3708	0.0852	67.8
65		Akron	MAC	-1.5215	0.0641	78.6
66		UAB	CUSA	-1.6880	0.0457	67.1
67		Maryland	ACC	-1.7510	0.0400	55.0
68		Houston	CUSA	-1.8547	0.0318	68.0
69		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-1.8941	0.0291	79.9
70	X	Siena	MAAC	-2.1075	0.0175	81.9
71		California	P10	-2.1777	0.0147	58.9
72		Boston College	ACC	-2.2417	0.0125	61.4
73		Western Kentucky	SB	-2.3246	0.0100	81.3
74		Southern Illinois	MVC	-2.4135	0.0079	72.3
75	X	UC Santa Barbara	BW	-2.4687	0.0068	82.5
76	X	Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-2.4819	0.0065	83.6
77		North Carolina St.	ACC	-2.5775	0.0050	72.3
78		Texas Tech	B12	-2.5994	0.0047	65.6
79		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-2.7619	0.0029	88.6
80		Oral Roberts	Sum	-2.8076	0.0025	93.1
81		Virginia Tech	ACC	-2.8310	0.0023	78.2
82		Charlotte	A10	-3.0393	0.0012	87.9
83		Valparaiso	Horz	-3.1802	0.0007	84.7
84		Utah	MWC	-3.2699	0.0005	74.5
85		Miami OH	MAC	-3.3550	0.0004	82.5
86		Purdue	B10	-3.3584	0.0004	92.4
87		Temple	A10	-3.4357	0.0003	77.5
88	X	Winthrop	BSth	-3.8415	0.0001	107.9
89		Virginia	ACC	-3.9249	0.0000	78.4
90		Georgia Tech	ACC	-3.9538	0.0000	82.7
91	X	IUPUI	Sum	-4.0511	0.0000	114.2
92		South Carolina	SEC	-4.2598	0.0000	81.5
93		Georgia	SEC	-4.3049	0.0000	92.8
94		Georgia Southern	SC	-4.4428	0.0000	103.0
95		NC Asheville	BSth	-4.4835	0.0000	110.4
96		Illinois	B10	-4.5665	0.0000	89.6
97		Boise St.	WAC	-4.6103	0.0000	114.9
98		Seton Hall	BE	-4.6389	0.0000	84.0
99		Utah St.	WAC	-4.9740	0.0000	113.6
100		Central Florida	CUSA	-5.0787	0.0000	100.7
101		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-5.1226	0.0000	114.5
102	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-5.1907	0.0000	108.4
103		Hampton	MEAC	-5.1968	0.0000	117.4
104		Wright St.	Horz	-5.2745	0.0000	107.3
105		Niagara	MAAC	-5.2993	0.0000	115.2
106		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-5.3586	0.0000	95.7
107		Appalachian St.	SC	-5.3895	0.0000	123.8
108		Washington	P10	-5.4880	0.0000	93.6
109		Nevada	WAC	-5.5492	0.0000	109.1
110		Kentucky	SEC	-5.5499	0.0000	96.4
111		Cincinnati	BE	-5.7394	0.0000	107.4
112		Chattanooga	SC	-5.9921	0.0000	115.6
113	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-6.0233	0.0000	118.9
114		North Texas	SB	-6.0477	0.0000	124.3
115		Wake Forest	ACC	-6.1631	0.0000	102.9
116		Oklahoma St.	B12	-6.1752	0.0000	98.8
117		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-6.2952	0.0000	124.7
118	X	Northern Arizona	BSky	-6.4786	0.0000	135.8
119		Penn St.	B10	-6.4813	0.0000	112.7
120		Lafayette	Pat	-6.5273	0.0000	131.2
121		Pacific	BW	-6.5482	0.0000	128.2
122	X	MD Baltimore County	AE	-6.6691	0.0000	136.8
123		Marshall	CUSA	-6.8055	0.0000	122.7
124	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-6.8446	0.0000	140.0
125		Alabama	SEC	-6.9518	0.0000	95.1
126		Belmont	ASun	-6.9666	0.0000	147.8
127		Nebraska	B12	-6.9922	0.0000	113.8
128		South Florida	BE	-7.0323	0.0000	110.5
129		Marist	MAAC	-7.2371	0.0000	126.1
130		Tulane	CUSA	-7.3033	0.0000	123.2
131	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-7.3937	0.0000	146.3
132		Iowa St.	B12	-7.3956	0.0000	113.9
133		Cornell	Ivy	-7.3964	0.0000	142.0
134		New Orleans	SB	-7.5512	0.0000	139.1
135		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-7.6471	0.0000	131.5
136		Missouri St.	MVC	-7.6775	0.0000	114.5
137		Rider	MAAC	-7.7096	0.0000	143.5
138		Auburn	SEC	-7.8562	0.0000	116.8
139		American	Pat	-7.8693	0.0000	150.1
140	X	Brown	Ivy	-7.9561	0.0000	138.3
141		Old Dominion	CAA	-8.2040	0.0000	137.0
142		NC Greensboro	SC	-8.3776	0.0000	148.5
143		DePaul	BE	-8.6016	0.0000	124.4
144		Tulsa	CUSA	-8.6960	0.0000	139.4
145	X	East Tennessee St.	ASun	-8.7203	0.0000	154.7
146		James Madison	CAA	-8.8455	0.0000	153.2
147		Wagner	NEC	-8.9661	0.0000	162.7
148		Portland St.	BSky	-8.9854	0.0000	167.6
149		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-9.0813	0.0000	139.6
150		Delaware	CAA	-9.1673	0.0000	157.6
151		St. John's	BE	-9.3620	0.0000	121.4
152		Fordham	A10	-9.3761	0.0000	140.4
153	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-9.5971	0.0000	168.0
154		St. Louis	A10	-9.6461	0.0000	137.1
155		Indiana St.	MVC	-9.6615	0.0000	146.9
156		Yale	Ivy	-9.7332	0.0000	166.6
157		Bucknell	Pat	-9.9858	0.0000	170.1
158		Northern Iowa	MVC	-10.0011	0.0000	153.2
159		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-10.1652	0.0000	150.2
160		Wichita St.	MVC	-10.2428	0.0000	142.3
161		Sacred Heart	NEC	-10.2957	0.0000	181.1
162		Albany	AE	-10.3432	0.0000	180.9
163		Fresno St.	WAC	-10.3744	0.0000	157.6
164		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-10.5752	0.0000	155.1
165		Western Michigan	MAC	-10.6491	0.0000	179.1
166		Colorado	B12	-10.7088	0.0000	145.7
167		Texas Christian	MWC	-10.7213	0.0000	157.1
168		Long Island	NEC	-10.7694	0.0000	174.5
169		William & Mary	CAA	-10.8027	0.0000	175.8
170		Richmond	A10	-10.8681	0.0000	158.2
171		Bradley	MVC	-10.9667	0.0000	148.3
172		Quinnipiac	NEC	-10.9757	0.0000	190.8
173		Murray St.	OVC	-10.9892	0.0000	187.5
174		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-11.0113	0.0000	184.3
175		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-11.0812	0.0000	171.6
176		Middle Tennessee	SB	-11.1904	0.0000	168.8
177		Santa Clara	WCC	-11.2659	0.0000	172.4
178		College of Charleston	SC	-11.5148	0.0000	173.6
179		Oakland	Sum	-11.7487	0.0000	192.9
180		Jacksonville	ASun	-11.7636	0.0000	195.9
181		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-11.8947	0.0000	186.7
182		NC Wilmington	CAA	-12.0115	0.0000	180.7
183		UC Irvine	BW	-12.0370	0.0000	178.3
184		San Jose St.	WAC	-12.1170	0.0000	193.2
185		Weber St.	BSky	-12.2430	0.0000	195.9
186		Lamar	Slnd	-12.3681	0.0000	199.4
187		San Diego	WCC	-12.4027	0.0000	170.3
188		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-12.4111	0.0000	200.9
189		Central Connecticut	NEC	-12.5457	0.0000	203.3
190		Iowa	B10	-12.5485	0.0000	176.4
191		Montana St.	BSky	-12.6917	0.0000	197.1
192		East Carolina	CUSA	-12.8653	0.0000	197.5
193		Air Force	MWC	-12.9138	0.0000	182.3
194		Central Michigan	MAC	-13.0031	0.0000	194.5
195		North Dakota St.	Sum	-13.1295	0.0000	201.0
196		Loyola MD	MAAC	-13.1480	0.0000	202.6
197		Troy	SB	-13.3319	0.0000	195.0
198		Vermont	AE	-13.6299	0.0000	213.7
199	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-13.7526	0.0000	233.0
200		Louisiana St.	SEC	-13.7758	0.0000	166.1
201		Northeastern	CAA	-13.8517	0.0000	193.5
202		Liberty	BSth	-13.9156	0.0000	212.3
203		Michigan	B10	-13.9611	0.0000	177.1
204		Bowling Green	MAC	-14.0687	0.0000	200.3
205		Northwestern	B10	-14.0844	0.0000	183.2
206		George Washington	A10	-14.1404	0.0000	191.1
207		Binghamton	AE	-14.1565	0.0000	230.1
208		Colgate	Pat	-14.2411	0.0000	211.4
209		Denver	SB	-14.2656	0.0000	218.4
210		Fairfield	MAAC	-14.2766	0.0000	217.4
211		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-14.4400	0.0000	206.8
212		Tennessee St.	OVC	-14.5839	0.0000	231.1
213		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-14.5943	0.0000	228.4
214		Toledo	MAC	-14.6420	0.0000	207.8
215		La Salle	A10	-14.6555	0.0000	201.0
216		Columbia	Ivy	-14.7587	0.0000	226.8
217		Iona	MAAC	-14.8249	0.0000	220.6
218		Army	Pat	-14.9785	0.0000	229.2
219		Montana	BSky	-15.0745	0.0000	231.6
220		Pepperdine	WCC	-15.1012	0.0000	204.0
221		Hartford	AE	-15.2207	0.0000	224.3
222		Youngstown St.	Horz	-15.2551	0.0000	198.7
223		Hawaii	WAC	-15.4424	0.0000	226.4
224		Delaware St.	MEAC	-15.4825	0.0000	231.3
225		Drexel	CAA	-15.6435	0.0000	210.7
226		Gardner Webb	ASun	-15.8231	0.0000	237.7
227		Wofford	SC	-15.9518	0.0000	226.2
228		Morehead St.	OVC	-16.0822	0.0000	245.0
229		Lipscomb	ASun	-16.1189	0.0000	247.3
230		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-16.1844	0.0000	253.4
231		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-16.2608	0.0000	241.2
232		Colorado St.	MWC	-16.2825	0.0000	202.4
233		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-16.3359	0.0000	225.4
234		Rutgers	BE	-16.4039	0.0000	193.7
235		Campbell	ASun	-16.4815	0.0000	254.7
236		Northern Colorado	BSky	-16.5828	0.0000	254.3
237		Harvard	Ivy	-16.6061	0.0000	246.2
238		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-16.6208	0.0000	245.4
239		Chicago St.	ind	-16.6582	0.0000	236.3
240		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-16.7950	0.0000	244.8
241		Southern	SWAC	-16.8641	0.0000	260.4
242		Utah Valley St.	ind	-17.0282	0.0000	261.9
243		High Point	BSth	-17.0298	0.0000	250.4
244		Arkansas St.	SB	-17.0351	0.0000	249.2
245		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-17.0455	0.0000	243.4
246		Buffalo	MAC	-17.0593	0.0000	227.4
247		Hofstra	CAA	-17.0889	0.0000	243.7
248		Lehigh	Pat	-17.0980	0.0000	251.2
249		Towson	CAA	-17.1437	0.0000	244.5
250		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-17.2992	0.0000	259.2
251		Cal Poly	BW	-17.3344	0.0000	234.5
252		St. Bonaventure	A10	-17.3927	0.0000	224.7
253		Manhattan	MAAC	-17.4703	0.0000	256.7
254		San Francisco	WCC	-17.5252	0.0000	238.2
255		Centenary	Sum	-17.5395	0.0000	256.2
256		Mercer	ASun	-18.0693	0.0000	279.6
257		Boston University	AE	-18.0854	0.0000	264.4
258		Elon	SC	-18.1260	0.0000	251.3
259		Eastern Washington	BSky	-18.2942	0.0000	263.8
260		Oregon St.	P10	-18.3315	0.0000	219.1
261		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-18.3619	0.0000	268.6
262		Navy	Pat	-18.4888	0.0000	271.5
263		Stetson	ASun	-18.5365	0.0000	267.6
264		New Hampshire	AE	-18.6084	0.0000	276.5
265		McNeese St.	Slnd	-18.6616	0.0000	267.0
266		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-18.6671	0.0000	277.6
267		UC Davis	BW	-18.7285	0.0000	263.9
268		Wyoming	MWC	-18.7649	0.0000	229.1
269		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-18.7688	0.0000	265.0
270		Western Illinois	Sum	-18.7843	0.0000	266.4
271		Evansville	MVC	-18.8599	0.0000	235.6
272		Florida Atlantic	SB	-18.8698	0.0000	252.4
273		Dartmouth	Ivy	-18.8961	0.0000	278.6
274		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-18.9507	0.0000	277.3
275		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-18.9832	0.0000	272.3
276		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-19.0982	0.0000	292.8
277		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-19.3489	0.0000	279.9
278		Savannah St.	ind	-19.4230	0.0000	284.0
279		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-19.5543	0.0000	292.7
280		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-19.5916	0.0000	264.9
281		Florida International	SB	-19.7145	0.0000	260.6
282		Southern Utah	Sum	-19.7940	0.0000	277.0
283		Texas St.	Slnd	-19.8016	0.0000	280.9
284		Samford	OVC	-19.8371	0.0000	291.7
285		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-19.9713	0.0000	299.8
286		Portland	WCC	-20.0458	0.0000	268.7
287		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-20.1353	0.0000	265.5
288		Jackson St.	SWAC	-20.3150	0.0000	292.0
289		Princeton	Ivy	-20.3191	0.0000	293.9
290		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-20.4110	0.0000	291.5
291		Ball St.	MAC	-20.4349	0.0000	270.8
292		Texas Pan American	ind	-20.4770	0.0000	310.3
293		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-20.5131	0.0000	283.4
294		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-20.6878	0.0000	312.9
295		St. Francis NY	NEC	-20.7928	0.0000	298.3
296		Idaho St.	BSky	-20.9212	0.0000	298.2
297		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-20.9801	0.0000	305.1
298		Rice	CUSA	-21.1215	0.0000	271.8
299		South Dakota St.	Sum	-21.1979	0.0000	297.4
300		Coppin St.	MEAC	-21.2990	0.0000	291.9
301		Georgia St.	CAA	-21.3444	0.0000	292.2
302		St. Peter's	MAAC	-21.3551	0.0000	291.5
303		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-21.3600	0.0000	283.4
304		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-21.3717	0.0000	309.6
305		Detroit	Horz	-21.4196	0.0000	278.2
306		Western Carolina	SC	-21.4666	0.0000	288.5
307		Long Beach St.	BW	-21.5619	0.0000	291.0
308		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-21.5802	0.0000	308.9
309		Florida A&M	MEAC	-21.5970	0.0000	299.3
310		Monmouth	NEC	-21.7080	0.0000	306.3
311		Texas Southern	SWAC	-22.0458	0.0000	313.2
312		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-22.1139	0.0000	305.8
313		Northern Illinois	MAC	-22.1863	0.0000	292.9
314		St. Francis PA	NEC	-22.1967	0.0000	310.0
315		Idaho	WAC	-22.4458	0.0000	307.2
316		UC Riverside	BW	-22.5327	0.0000	288.3
317		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-22.7890	0.0000	329.1
318		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-22.8002	0.0000	309.4
319		Charleston Southern	BSth	-22.8348	0.0000	318.1
320		Furman	SC	-22.9588	0.0000	310.0
321		Longwood	ind	-23.1121	0.0000	330.4
322		Radford	BSth	-23.1440	0.0000	322.1
323		Stony Brook	AE	-23.2286	0.0000	325.8
324		Canisius	MAAC	-23.2779	0.0000	318.2
325		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-23.3102	0.0000	329.7
326		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-23.4521	0.0000	315.4
327		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.7660	0.0000	336.7
328		Maine	AE	-23.8108	0.0000	325.3
329		Howard	MEAC	-23.8385	0.0000	324.3
330		North Carolina Central	ind	-23.8567	0.0000	322.3
331		Presbyterian	ind	-23.8647	0.0000	325.6
332		Sacramento St.	BSky	-23.9063	0.0000	326.5
333		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-23.9276	0.0000	303.9
334		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-24.1026	0.0000	336.2
335		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-24.1256	0.0000	340.8
336		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-24.2051	0.0000	337.6
337		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-24.5424	0.0000	335.7
338		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-24.5450	0.0000	334.8
339		Grambling	SWAC	-24.9026	0.0000	338.0
340		North Florida	ASun	-25.6356	0.0000	338.1
341		The Citadel	SC	-25.6364	0.0000	328.8

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com