Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Feb 19, 2008.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	9.6208	1.0000	2.8
2	X	Tennessee	SEC	9.3356	1.0000	1.6
3		Duke	ACC	9.2234	1.0000	3.2
4	X	Memphis	CUSA	8.8967	1.0000	2.5
5	X	UCLA	P10	8.2275	1.0000	6.3
6	X	Kansas	B12	7.9724	1.0000	6.3
7		Texas	B12	7.2178	1.0000	6.2
8	X	Xavier	A10	6.9864	1.0000	8.0
9		Indiana	B10	6.7086	1.0000	14.2
10		Georgetown	BE	5.7448	1.0000	11.3
11		Connecticut	BE	5.4437	1.0000	11.8
12		Washington St.	P10	5.2981	1.0000	19.5
13	X	Butler	Horz	5.2392	1.0000	20.0
14		Louisville	BE	5.2349	1.0000	10.2
15		Stanford	P10	5.1156	1.0000	20.6
16	X	Drake	MVC	5.1011	1.0000	15.4
17		Marquette	BE	4.7714	1.0000	17.0
18		Michigan St.	B10	4.6927	1.0000	18.5
19	X	Wisconsin	B10	4.3563	1.0000	12.9
20		St. Mary's	WCC	4.1003	1.0000	27.6
21		Arizona	P10	4.0960	1.0000	18.8
22		Vanderbilt	SEC	4.0950	1.0000	14.5
23		Notre Dame	BE	3.9160	1.0000	28.9
24		Clemson	ACC	3.7557	0.9999	25.7
25		Pittsburgh	BE	3.3188	0.9995	24.6
26	X	Gonzaga	WCC	3.1690	0.9992	30.9
27		Kansas St.	B12	3.1630	0.9992	21.7
28		Oklahoma	B12	3.0209	0.9987	27.5
29		Southern California	P10	3.0084	0.9987	34.9
30		Arkansas	SEC	2.8123	0.9975	30.0
31	X	West Virginia	BE	2.7480	0.9970	29.9
32		Brigham Young	MWC	2.5712	0.9949	33.7
33		Purdue	B10	2.5573	0.9947	40.7
34		Texas A&M	B12	2.5218	0.9942	30.7
35		Kent St.	MAC	1.9983	0.9772	46.2
36	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	1.9369	0.9736	35.0
37		Ohio St.	B10	1.6121	0.9465	38.0
38		Rhode Island	A10	1.4087	0.9205	39.3
39		Dayton	A10	1.3758	0.9156	31.9
40		Mississippi St.	SEC	1.3757	0.9155	35.8
41		Maryland	ACC	1.3671	0.9142	36.6
42	X	Davidson	SC	1.3038	0.9039	52.3
43		Miami FL	ACC	1.2591	0.8960	37.3
44	X	South Alabama	SB	0.9686	0.8336	48.9
45		Illinois St.	MVC	0.7259	0.7660	50.5
46		Baylor	B12	0.3033	0.6192	43.2
47		Western Kentucky	SB	0.2281	0.5902	52.1
48		Houston	CUSA	0.2201	0.5871	48.9
49		Massachusetts	A10	0.1878	0.5745	51.6
50		Southern Illinois	MVC	0.0665	0.5265	55.0
51		Florida	SEC	-0.0975	0.4612	50.2
52		Mississippi	SEC	-0.1157	0.4540	47.2
53	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-0.1649	0.4345	61.4
54		Syracuse	BE	-0.2283	0.4097	37.6
55		Oral Roberts	Sum	-0.3518	0.3625	65.1
56		Oregon	P10	-0.5106	0.3048	54.3
57		New Mexico	MWC	-0.6413	0.2607	56.1
58		UAB	CUSA	-0.6546	0.2564	59.6
59		Kentucky	SEC	-0.6710	0.2511	53.2
60		Saint Joseph's	A10	-0.7116	0.2383	55.3
61		George Mason	CAA	-0.8124	0.2083	71.0
62	X	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-0.8995	0.1842	67.4
63		California	P10	-0.9321	0.1757	54.4
64		Wright St.	Horz	-1.2590	0.1040	68.8
65	X	IUPUI	Sum	-1.5987	0.0549	87.8
66		North Carolina St.	ACC	-1.6643	0.0480	67.4
67		Creighton	MVC	-1.6898	0.0455	63.6
68		Texas Tech	B12	-1.6961	0.0449	58.1
69		Boise St.	WAC	-1.8125	0.0350	88.3
70		Wake Forest	ACC	-1.8534	0.0319	70.4
71		Arizona St.	P10	-1.8990	0.0288	68.4
72	X	Akron	MAC	-2.0138	0.0220	82.8
73		Ohio	MAC	-2.1973	0.0140	76.3
74		Florida St.	ACC	-2.4128	0.0079	64.2
75		Cincinnati	BE	-2.6824	0.0037	80.4
76		Missouri	B12	-2.7634	0.0029	68.3
77		Utah	MWC	-2.9085	0.0018	72.3
78		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-2.9767	0.0015	91.0
79		Duquesne	A10	-3.0766	0.0010	80.4
80		Temple	A10	-3.1316	0.0009	76.2
81		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-3.2099	0.0007	97.2
82		Bradley	MVC	-3.2416	0.0006	85.8
83		Villanova	BE	-3.3431	0.0004	75.4
84		Charlotte	A10	-3.5772	0.0002	89.7
85		Virginia Tech	ACC	-3.6606	0.0001	79.6
86	X	Cornell	Ivy	-3.6826	0.0001	101.9
87		Georgia Tech	ACC	-3.7650	0.0001	83.0
88		Seton Hall	BE	-3.9283	0.0000	77.6
89		San Diego St.	MWC	-3.9554	0.0000	79.7
90		Boston College	ACC	-3.9823	0.0000	79.5
91		Nevada	WAC	-4.0370	0.0000	87.2
92	X	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-4.0588	0.0000	98.6
93		Cleveland St.	Horz	-4.0607	0.0000	93.0
94		Utah St.	WAC	-4.1524	0.0000	106.1
95	X	Siena	MAAC	-4.4184	0.0000	101.2
96		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-4.6243	0.0000	107.0
97		Miami OH	MAC	-4.6697	0.0000	87.9
98	X	Belmont	ASun	-4.6784	0.0000	122.5
99		Georgia Southern	SC	-4.7526	0.0000	103.0
100		Oklahoma St.	B12	-5.0812	0.0000	89.3
101		American	Pat	-5.1418	0.0000	120.0
102		Wagner	NEC	-5.2321	0.0000	126.8
103	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-5.2690	0.0000	126.7
104	X	Winthrop	BSth	-5.3559	0.0000	117.7
105	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-5.4213	0.0000	116.3
106		Providence	BE	-5.7177	0.0000	88.9
107		Richmond	A10	-5.7502	0.0000	121.0
108		South Carolina	SEC	-5.7563	0.0000	94.3
109		Old Dominion	CAA	-5.7973	0.0000	120.1
110		Marshall	CUSA	-5.9208	0.0000	107.6
111		Minnesota	B10	-5.9558	0.0000	99.0
112	X	MD Baltimore County	AE	-6.1368	0.0000	128.4
113		Nebraska	B12	-6.1569	0.0000	108.3
114		Georgia	SEC	-6.1812	0.0000	102.0
115		Washington	P10	-6.3573	0.0000	95.9
116		Pacific	BW	-6.3783	0.0000	134.9
117		Valparaiso	Horz	-6.3865	0.0000	121.9
118		Niagara	MAAC	-6.4173	0.0000	130.4
119		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-6.5544	0.0000	102.6
120	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-6.5949	0.0000	122.9
121		Illinois	B10	-6.6293	0.0000	100.7
122		Northern Iowa	MVC	-6.7243	0.0000	124.2
123	X	Portland St.	BSky	-6.8465	0.0000	147.8
124	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-6.8536	0.0000	142.4
125		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-6.9451	0.0000	131.0
126		Indiana St.	MVC	-7.0128	0.0000	124.0
127		St. Louis	A10	-7.0361	0.0000	110.3
128		Rider	MAAC	-7.0916	0.0000	141.7
129		Central Florida	CUSA	-7.1050	0.0000	118.7
130		NC Asheville	BSth	-7.1300	0.0000	142.1
131		Middle Tennessee	SB	-7.1919	0.0000	126.8
132		NC Wilmington	CAA	-7.2860	0.0000	141.7
133		Alabama	SEC	-7.3282	0.0000	96.2
134		Chattanooga	SC	-7.3402	0.0000	123.8
135		San Diego	WCC	-7.7179	0.0000	117.5
136		North Texas	SB	-7.7413	0.0000	147.8
137		Appalachian St.	SC	-7.7990	0.0000	147.0
138		Iowa St.	B12	-7.8107	0.0000	119.6
139		Western Michigan	MAC	-7.9094	0.0000	153.9
140		Lamar	Slnd	-8.0437	0.0000	148.1
141		Hampton	MEAC	-8.0449	0.0000	150.7
142		Virginia	ACC	-8.2116	0.0000	108.2
143		Brown	Ivy	-8.2345	0.0000	139.0
144		Northern Arizona	BSky	-8.3869	0.0000	155.9
145		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-8.4339	0.0000	140.3
146		Tulsa	CUSA	-8.5424	0.0000	139.1
147	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-8.5498	0.0000	159.4
148		Penn St.	B10	-8.7734	0.0000	133.4
149		Marist	MAAC	-9.0953	0.0000	145.6
150		Loyola MD	MAAC	-9.1201	0.0000	166.2
151		Tulane	CUSA	-9.1688	0.0000	139.4
152		Sacred Heart	NEC	-9.1907	0.0000	172.5
153		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-9.5779	0.0000	153.8
154		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-9.6661	0.0000	161.7
155		Auburn	SEC	-9.8152	0.0000	134.3
156		Fordham	A10	-9.8225	0.0000	146.8
157		NC Greensboro	SC	-9.9078	0.0000	160.6
158		Missouri St.	MVC	-9.9114	0.0000	133.0
159		St. John's	BE	-9.9125	0.0000	128.3
160		Lafayette	Pat	-9.9524	0.0000	164.6
161		New Orleans	SB	-10.0445	0.0000	161.4
162		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-10.2466	0.0000	152.9
163		DePaul	BE	-10.3117	0.0000	139.7
164		Colorado	B12	-10.5193	0.0000	148.6
165		William & Mary	CAA	-10.5643	0.0000	172.4
166		South Florida	BE	-10.6142	0.0000	145.5
167		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-10.6676	0.0000	167.2
168		Murray St.	OVC	-10.7002	0.0000	182.3
169		Fairfield	MAAC	-10.8228	0.0000	178.9
170		UC Irvine	BW	-10.8547	0.0000	168.7
171		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-10.9023	0.0000	168.9
172		Iowa	B10	-11.0338	0.0000	158.4
173		Oakland	Sum	-11.0464	0.0000	179.8
174		Michigan	B10	-11.0843	0.0000	154.5
175		Quinnipiac	NEC	-11.1166	0.0000	192.7
176		Yale	Ivy	-11.2701	0.0000	181.2
177		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-11.3055	0.0000	187.8
178		Santa Clara	WCC	-11.3517	0.0000	171.8
179		Montana St.	BSky	-11.7366	0.0000	188.6
180		Jacksonville	ASun	-11.7982	0.0000	195.1
181		Air Force	MWC	-11.8764	0.0000	164.2
182		Columbia	Ivy	-12.0763	0.0000	194.2
183		Albany	AE	-12.0850	0.0000	200.8
184		Hartford	AE	-12.2078	0.0000	198.7
185		Delaware	CAA	-12.2139	0.0000	187.9
186	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-12.4805	0.0000	218.5
187		San Jose St.	WAC	-12.5035	0.0000	193.0
188		Northeastern	CAA	-12.6004	0.0000	181.2
189		Long Island	NEC	-12.6649	0.0000	195.9
190		Bucknell	Pat	-12.9917	0.0000	201.4
191		Wofford	SC	-13.0062	0.0000	196.3
192		Central Michigan	MAC	-13.0716	0.0000	197.7
193		Texas Christian	MWC	-13.1350	0.0000	177.9
194		Central Connecticut	NEC	-13.1602	0.0000	211.2
195		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-13.2081	0.0000	202.0
196		Hawaii	WAC	-13.2553	0.0000	199.0
197		College of Charleston	SC	-13.2771	0.0000	189.2
198		Toledo	MAC	-13.4196	0.0000	195.4
199		George Washington	A10	-13.5674	0.0000	181.7
200		Iona	MAAC	-13.7378	0.0000	214.2
201		La Salle	A10	-13.7435	0.0000	193.0
202		Wichita St.	MVC	-13.8004	0.0000	177.8
203		Delaware St.	MEAC	-13.9044	0.0000	213.0
204		James Madison	CAA	-13.9243	0.0000	203.0
205		Gardner Webb	ASun	-13.9437	0.0000	223.0
206		Fresno St.	WAC	-14.0067	0.0000	189.8
207		Colgate	Pat	-14.1034	0.0000	214.1
208		Montana	BSky	-14.1145	0.0000	218.4
209		Weber St.	BSky	-14.2440	0.0000	218.7
210		Bowling Green	MAC	-14.3056	0.0000	204.3
211		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-14.3606	0.0000	220.2
212		Lehigh	Pat	-14.3683	0.0000	222.0
213		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-14.3868	0.0000	227.5
214		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-14.4706	0.0000	215.6
215		Louisiana St.	SEC	-14.5933	0.0000	175.0
216		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-14.5983	0.0000	219.2
217		Denver	SB	-14.6701	0.0000	221.5
218		Rutgers	BE	-14.7702	0.0000	189.5
219		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-14.8212	0.0000	224.9
220		Navy	Pat	-14.8405	0.0000	233.7
221		Vermont	AE	-15.1247	0.0000	234.7
222		Morehead St.	OVC	-15.2103	0.0000	236.3
223		Lipscomb	ASun	-15.2836	0.0000	239.3
224		Army	Pat	-15.4742	0.0000	236.2
225		Drexel	CAA	-15.4800	0.0000	208.4
226		Wyoming	MWC	-15.5696	0.0000	196.9
227		North Dakota St.	Sum	-15.7338	0.0000	226.6
228		Binghamton	AE	-15.7562	0.0000	246.9
229		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-15.7655	0.0000	242.3
230		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-15.8816	0.0000	238.8
231		Towson	CAA	-15.8959	0.0000	230.6
232		East Carolina	CUSA	-15.9334	0.0000	231.8
233		Cal Poly	BW	-15.9357	0.0000	222.3
234		Chicago St.	ind	-16.0563	0.0000	235.2
235		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-16.0858	0.0000	267.8
236		Liberty	BSth	-16.1514	0.0000	240.6
237		Florida Atlantic	SB	-16.1961	0.0000	220.7
238		Pepperdine	WCC	-16.2180	0.0000	216.0
239		Youngstown St.	Horz	-16.3197	0.0000	216.9
240		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-16.5861	0.0000	232.3
241		Hofstra	CAA	-16.6587	0.0000	239.3
242		High Point	BSth	-16.6874	0.0000	246.1
243		Elon	SC	-16.7531	0.0000	236.8
244		Evansville	MVC	-17.0757	0.0000	224.7
245		Northwestern	B10	-17.0788	0.0000	209.7
246		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-17.1040	0.0000	252.5
247		Utah Valley St.	ind	-17.3719	0.0000	266.1
248		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-17.3950	0.0000	246.3
249		Boston University	AE	-17.4108	0.0000	260.3
250		Tennessee St.	OVC	-17.4894	0.0000	264.7
251		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-17.4900	0.0000	243.5
252		Troy	SB	-17.5032	0.0000	228.9
253		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-17.5144	0.0000	232.5
254		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-17.5289	0.0000	263.9
255		Western Illinois	Sum	-17.9070	0.0000	253.3
256		Florida International	SB	-18.1490	0.0000	234.6
257		Manhattan	MAAC	-18.1756	0.0000	268.1
258		Texas St.	Slnd	-18.1931	0.0000	264.8
259		Savannah St.	ind	-18.2155	0.0000	274.8
260		Stetson	ASun	-18.3073	0.0000	265.3
261		McNeese St.	Slnd	-18.4802	0.0000	264.5
262		Southern Utah	Sum	-18.7561	0.0000	251.5
263		Samford	OVC	-18.7720	0.0000	280.9
264		Detroit	Horz	-18.9629	0.0000	258.8
265		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-19.0730	0.0000	252.2
266		Eastern Washington	BSky	-19.1114	0.0000	274.2
267		St. Bonaventure	A10	-19.1442	0.0000	241.8
268		Northern Colorado	BSky	-19.1711	0.0000	282.7
269		Jackson St.	SWAC	-19.4501	0.0000	280.7
270		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-19.4724	0.0000	276.7
271		Idaho St.	BSky	-19.4952	0.0000	280.8
272		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-19.5247	0.0000	289.3
273		Arkansas St.	SB	-19.5402	0.0000	275.0
274		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-19.7103	0.0000	266.7
275		San Francisco	WCC	-19.7156	0.0000	260.2
276		Northern Illinois	MAC	-19.9060	0.0000	267.4
277		Mercer	ASun	-19.9209	0.0000	300.4
278		Texas Pan American	ind	-20.0178	0.0000	309.8
279		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-20.0352	0.0000	290.4
280		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-20.0383	0.0000	280.6
281		Ball St.	MAC	-20.0421	0.0000	264.5
282		Campbell	ASun	-20.0955	0.0000	296.9
283		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-20.1544	0.0000	275.7
284		Buffalo	MAC	-20.2498	0.0000	258.3
285		Centenary	Sum	-20.2878	0.0000	281.0
286		Georgia St.	CAA	-20.3579	0.0000	280.9
287		Florida A&M	MEAC	-20.3892	0.0000	289.2
288		Harvard	Ivy	-20.4177	0.0000	287.9
289		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-20.4414	0.0000	295.6
290		Western Carolina	SC	-20.4630	0.0000	275.2
291		Colorado St.	MWC	-20.5281	0.0000	243.1
292		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-20.6182	0.0000	296.2
293		Oregon St.	P10	-20.6845	0.0000	246.0
294		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-20.8369	0.0000	309.3
295		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-20.9393	0.0000	286.4
296		UC Davis	BW	-21.0172	0.0000	289.5
297		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-21.0759	0.0000	304.0
298		Princeton	Ivy	-21.1781	0.0000	300.6
299		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-21.2325	0.0000	310.0
300		Coppin St.	MEAC	-21.2496	0.0000	291.4
301		Monmouth	NEC	-21.3431	0.0000	300.9
302		St. Francis PA	NEC	-21.6513	0.0000	306.5
303		St. Peter's	MAAC	-21.7405	0.0000	297.7
304		Furman	SC	-21.8163	0.0000	296.0
305		Southern	SWAC	-21.8686	0.0000	310.8
306		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-21.9319	0.0000	312.1
307		New Hampshire	AE	-22.0283	0.0000	312.2
308		Dartmouth	Ivy	-22.0637	0.0000	311.4
309		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-22.0718	0.0000	311.3
310		Rice	CUSA	-22.1716	0.0000	282.1
311		Radford	BSth	-22.3332	0.0000	317.6
312		South Dakota St.	Sum	-22.5834	0.0000	306.8
313		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-22.6212	0.0000	327.0
314		Portland	WCC	-22.6985	0.0000	294.2
315		Long Beach St.	BW	-22.7414	0.0000	305.2
316		UC Riverside	BW	-22.7744	0.0000	295.4
317		St. Francis NY	NEC	-22.9013	0.0000	318.4
318		North Carolina Central	ind	-23.0012	0.0000	309.8
319		Longwood	ind	-23.0227	0.0000	331.0
320		Charleston Southern	BSth	-23.0411	0.0000	323.8
321		Idaho	WAC	-23.1813	0.0000	308.1
322		Maine	AE	-23.2747	0.0000	325.9
323		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-23.2752	0.0000	313.6
324		Grambling	SWAC	-23.2978	0.0000	329.8
325		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-23.3531	0.0000	326.6
326		Texas Southern	SWAC	-23.4283	0.0000	320.9
327		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-23.5125	0.0000	299.4
328		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-23.5674	0.0000	332.2
329		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.8380	0.0000	338.4
330		Canisius	MAAC	-23.8441	0.0000	323.2
331		Sacramento St.	BSky	-23.8451	0.0000	331.7
332		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-23.8770	0.0000	337.9
333		Stony Brook	AE	-24.0653	0.0000	330.6
334		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-24.2147	0.0000	338.1
335		Howard	MEAC	-24.3231	0.0000	330.2
336		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-24.3800	0.0000	341.0
337		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-24.5871	0.0000	319.4
338		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-24.7583	0.0000	335.5
339		Presbyterian	ind	-24.7993	0.0000	329.2
340		The Citadel	SC	-25.4887	0.0000	327.8
341		North Florida	ASun	-26.0256	0.0000	339.3

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com