Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive

Through games of Dec 19, 2006.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	Arizona	P10	8.2627	1.0000	2.6
2	X	North Carolina	ACC	7.3526	1.0000	4.6
3	X	Florida	SEC	7.3480	1.0000	7.9
4		UCLA	P10	7.1234	1.0000	4.7
5		Duke	ACC	6.7266	1.0000	4.2
6	X	Ohio St.	B10	6.1184	1.0000	9.2
7		Oregon	P10	6.0833	1.0000	12.8
8	X	Butler	Horz	5.4231	1.0000	24.1
9	X	Texas A&M	B12	5.2558	1.0000	15.5
10		Georgia	SEC	5.1240	1.0000	18.0
11		Maryland	ACC	5.0284	1.0000	10.9
12		Tennessee	SEC	4.9962	1.0000	12.0
13		Villanova	BE	4.5136	1.0000	10.8
14	X	Notre Dame	BE	4.3285	1.0000	29.3
15		Purdue	B10	4.3280	1.0000	23.3
16		Clemson	ACC	4.3145	1.0000	16.7
17		Illinois	B10	4.2548	1.0000	16.8
18		Connecticut	BE	4.1644	1.0000	25.5
19		Kansas	B12	4.0567	1.0000	30.9
20		Air Force	MWC	4.0295	1.0000	30.3
21		Wichita St.	MVC	4.0117	1.0000	27.3
22		Kentucky	SEC	3.9516	1.0000	19.2
23		Michigan St.	B10	3.8562	0.9999	20.3
24	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	3.6185	0.9999	22.0
25		Boston College	ACC	3.5808	0.9998	24.0
26	X	Memphis	CUSA	3.5471	0.9998	27.7
27		Wisconsin	B10	3.3342	0.9996	28.7
28		Mississippi St.	SEC	3.1864	0.9993	28.9
29	X	Missouri St.	MVC	3.1615	0.9992	29.1
30		Oklahoma St.	B12	2.9484	0.9984	26.6
31		Louisiana St.	SEC	2.7812	0.9973	32.3
32		Pittsburgh	BE	2.5085	0.9939	23.4
33		Drexel	CAA	2.4853	0.9935	43.2
34	X	Xavier	A10	2.4058	0.9919	38.4
35	X	Gonzaga	WCC	2.3959	0.9917	41.1
36		Marquette	BE	2.3112	0.9896	30.6
37		Georgia Tech	ACC	2.0514	0.9799	38.6
38		Indiana	B10	1.9090	0.9719	35.7
39	X	Nevada	WAC	1.6115	0.9465	46.1
40		West Virginia	BE	1.4821	0.9308	41.9
41		Missouri	B12	1.4069	0.9203	37.2
42		Bradley	MVC	1.2828	0.9002	47.6
43		Providence	BE	1.2757	0.8990	38.9
44		Southern Illinois	MVC	1.0760	0.8590	43.9
45		San Diego St.	MWC	0.9666	0.8331	44.8
46		Alabama	SEC	0.9065	0.8177	39.5
47		Oklahoma	B12	0.8704	0.8080	42.4
48		Georgetown	BE	0.8233	0.7948	44.2
49		California	P10	0.6243	0.7338	43.2
50		Florida St.	ACC	0.5244	0.7000	41.3
51	X	Western Kentucky	SB	0.4620	0.6780	55.7
52		Texas	B12	0.2582	0.6019	51.7
53		Arkansas	SEC	0.1791	0.5711	44.4
54	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.1707	0.5678	60.2
55		Virginia Tech	ACC	-0.0332	0.4868	50.2
56		Syracuse	BE	-0.1201	0.4522	46.8
57		Southern California	P10	-0.2875	0.3869	54.5
58		Michigan	B10	-0.4438	0.3286	50.1
59		St. Louis	A10	-0.5058	0.3065	58.4
60		Massachusetts	A10	-1.2127	0.1126	72.0
61		Washington St.	P10	-1.2854	0.0993	63.0
62		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-1.3063	0.0957	65.7
63		DePaul	BE	-1.5531	0.0602	61.1
64		Texas Tech	B12	-1.6055	0.0542	53.4
65	X	Kent St.	MAC	-1.6223	0.0524	76.9
66		Virginia	ACC	-1.6768	0.0468	63.9
67	X	Winthrop	BSth	-2.0368	0.0208	86.6
68		Seton Hall	BE	-2.2283	0.0129	62.9
69	X	Belmont	ASun	-2.3344	0.0098	96.7
70	X	UC Santa Barbara	BW	-2.3809	0.0086	86.5
71		Brigham Young	MWC	-2.6272	0.0043	73.6
72		Tulsa	CUSA	-2.7041	0.0034	74.8
73		Dayton	A10	-2.7162	0.0033	72.5
74		Akron	MAC	-2.9095	0.0018	94.2
75		George Washington	A10	-2.9237	0.0017	81.8
76		Houston	CUSA	-2.9589	0.0015	73.4
77	X	Davidson	SC	-2.9877	0.0014	93.0
78		Washington	P10	-2.9917	0.0014	68.0
79		Old Dominion	CAA	-3.0405	0.0012	80.3
80		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-3.0531	0.0011	82.1
81	X	Pennsylvania	Ivy	-3.0545	0.0011	92.5
82		Temple	A10	-3.0967	0.0010	78.9
83		Santa Clara	WCC	-3.5055	0.0002	86.7
84	X	Marist	MAAC	-3.7822	0.0001	107.9
85		Nebraska	B12	-4.1032	0.0000	85.5
86		Mississippi	SEC	-4.2960	0.0000	73.0
87		Stanford	P10	-4.3694	0.0000	80.1
88		Fresno St.	WAC	-4.5014	0.0000	102.5
89		North Texas	SB	-4.8462	0.0000	121.2
90		South Carolina	SEC	-4.8620	0.0000	83.4
91		UAB	CUSA	-4.8898	0.0000	97.7
92		North Carolina St.	ACC	-4.9584	0.0000	82.4
93	X	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-4.9994	0.0000	111.0
94	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-5.0088	0.0000	101.7
95		New Mexico St.	WAC	-5.1329	0.0000	106.5
96		Hawaii	WAC	-5.2186	0.0000	99.5
97		Creighton	MVC	-5.2266	0.0000	89.2
98		George Mason	CAA	-5.2511	0.0000	110.2
99		Cincinnati	BE	-5.2611	0.0000	90.0
100		Vanderbilt	SEC	-5.3678	0.0000	94.9
101		Central Florida	CUSA	-5.3831	0.0000	121.4
102		Utah St.	WAC	-5.4182	0.0000	101.9
103		Miami FL	ACC	-5.4226	0.0000	103.0
104		New Mexico	MWC	-5.4940	0.0000	96.5
105		Illinois St.	MVC	-5.5830	0.0000	93.2
106		Wake Forest	ACC	-5.6615	0.0000	94.4
107		Louisville	BE	-5.7446	0.0000	87.5
108		Fordham	A10	-6.1829	0.0000	119.6
109		Boise St.	WAC	-6.2246	0.0000	123.1
110		Toledo	MAC	-6.5235	0.0000	122.6
111		Utah	MWC	-6.5696	0.0000	114.4
112		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-6.5819	0.0000	121.4
113		Northern Iowa	MVC	-6.6794	0.0000	105.8
114		Saint Joseph's	A10	-6.7283	0.0000	111.4
115		Army	Pat	-6.7510	0.0000	124.0
116		Miami OH	MAC	-6.8620	0.0000	119.0
117		Long Beach St.	BW	-7.1874	0.0000	128.8
118		Idaho St.	BSky	-7.4113	0.0000	136.2
119	X	Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-7.4147	0.0000	144.6
120		Evansville	MVC	-7.4426	0.0000	106.1
121		Appalachian St.	SC	-7.5908	0.0000	145.0
122	X	Eastern Washington	BSky	-7.6008	0.0000	144.6
123		Western Michigan	MAC	-7.6142	0.0000	138.6
124		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-7.6927	0.0000	119.4
125		Oral Roberts	MCon	-7.8417	0.0000	139.4
126		Navy	Pat	-7.8617	0.0000	138.7
127		Northwestern	B10	-7.9806	0.0000	122.7
128	X	IUPUI	MCon	-8.0289	0.0000	140.9
129		Iowa	B10	-8.0303	0.0000	118.6
130		Wyoming	MWC	-8.0403	0.0000	120.5
131		Rider	MAAC	-8.0477	0.0000	153.7
132		Drake	MVC	-8.0593	0.0000	117.3
133		Vermont	AE	-8.0758	0.0000	151.3
134		Baylor	B12	-8.1446	0.0000	109.5
135		Auburn	SEC	-8.3995	0.0000	107.0
136		Bucknell	Pat	-8.6349	0.0000	147.0
137	X	Sacred Heart	NEC	-8.6431	0.0000	160.9
138		Albany	AE	-8.6779	0.0000	156.2
139		Penn St.	B10	-8.7307	0.0000	119.1
140		Kansas St.	B12	-8.7393	0.0000	116.4
141		North Dakota St.	ind	-8.7561	0.0000	168.9
142		Samford	OVC	-8.7816	0.0000	162.8
143		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-8.8145	0.0000	137.5
144		Ohio	MAC	-9.0716	0.0000	148.3
145		St. John's	BE	-9.1329	0.0000	116.4
146		Towson	CAA	-9.1552	0.0000	137.7
147		Buffalo	MAC	-9.1901	0.0000	151.4
148		Colorado St.	MWC	-9.2382	0.0000	135.5
149		Hartford	AE	-9.2738	0.0000	161.3
150		American	Pat	-9.3195	0.0000	158.4
151		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-9.4916	0.0000	165.6
152		Indiana St.	MVC	-9.5147	0.0000	126.2
153		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-9.6330	0.0000	154.7
154		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-9.7389	0.0000	166.5
155		Siena	MAAC	-9.8183	0.0000	171.3
156		Middle Tennessee	SB	-9.8298	0.0000	162.3
157		South Florida	BE	-9.8508	0.0000	132.5
158		Robert Morris	NEC	-10.0671	0.0000	177.8
159		Valparaiso	MCon	-10.0872	0.0000	170.4
160		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-10.1251	0.0000	176.9
161		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-10.1772	0.0000	152.1
162		Oakland	MCon	-10.2677	0.0000	163.0
163		Harvard	Ivy	-10.4197	0.0000	166.9
164		Murray St.	OVC	-10.4857	0.0000	180.0
165		Princeton	Ivy	-10.5002	0.0000	173.3
166		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-10.5628	0.0000	175.4
167		Portland St.	BSky	-10.6745	0.0000	176.7
168		College of Charleston	SC	-10.7204	0.0000	173.7
169		Utah Valley St.	ind	-10.8029	0.0000	187.5
170		St. Mary's	WCC	-10.8846	0.0000	158.7
171		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-11.0176	0.0000	174.5
172		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-11.0540	0.0000	190.2
173		Lipscomb	ASun	-11.1117	0.0000	185.1
174		Charlotte	A10	-11.1232	0.0000	151.1
175		Furman	SC	-11.2066	0.0000	185.2
176		Rhode Island	A10	-11.2264	0.0000	151.4
177		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-11.3947	0.0000	187.0
178		Rice	CUSA	-11.4623	0.0000	161.8
179		UC Irvine	BW	-11.5048	0.0000	176.0
180		San Diego	WCC	-11.5331	0.0000	175.0
181		South Alabama	SB	-11.5507	0.0000	178.6
182	X	Boston University	AE	-11.6038	0.0000	189.2
183		Texas Christian	MWC	-11.6214	0.0000	149.5
184		Canisius	MAAC	-11.6376	0.0000	188.7
185		Ball St.	MAC	-11.6483	0.0000	168.3
186		Minnesota	B10	-11.6764	0.0000	149.3
187		Arizona St.	P10	-11.7903	0.0000	157.0
188		Lehigh	Pat	-12.0813	0.0000	191.3
189		Tulane	CUSA	-12.1461	0.0000	179.0
190		Southern Utah	MCon	-12.1937	0.0000	197.1
191		MD Baltimore County	AE	-12.3514	0.0000	194.3
192		Chattanooga	SC	-12.3640	0.0000	195.3
193		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-12.4924	0.0000	206.5
194		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-12.4981	0.0000	207.9
195		NC Wilmington	CAA	-12.6324	0.0000	186.1
196		Georgia Southern	SC	-12.8953	0.0000	209.6
197		Austin Peay	OVC	-13.0431	0.0000	212.2
198		Loyola MD	MAAC	-13.0538	0.0000	208.1
199		Hofstra	CAA	-13.1408	0.0000	194.4
200		Montana	BSky	-13.1547	0.0000	204.9
201		Pacific	BW	-13.1798	0.0000	192.1
202		Columbia	Ivy	-13.2912	0.0000	208.0
203	X	Delaware St.	MEAC	-13.3042	0.0000	207.0
204		Youngstown St.	Horz	-13.6365	0.0000	201.2
205		San Francisco	WCC	-13.6880	0.0000	196.8
206		Iowa St.	B12	-13.8473	0.0000	173.9
207		New Orleans	SB	-13.8610	0.0000	215.1
208		Maine	AE	-13.8755	0.0000	216.1
209		Oregon St.	P10	-13.8933	0.0000	167.3
210		Richmond	A10	-13.9182	0.0000	186.0
211		Western Carolina	SC	-13.9377	0.0000	210.9
212		Monmouth	NEC	-14.2278	0.0000	215.0
213		Weber St.	BSky	-14.2843	0.0000	220.6
214		Cornell	Ivy	-14.3857	0.0000	227.0
215		Brown	Ivy	-14.3897	0.0000	227.0
216		Morehead St.	OVC	-14.5215	0.0000	233.2
217		Jackson St.	SWAC	-14.5550	0.0000	226.3
218		Jacksonville	ASun	-14.5625	0.0000	225.5
219		Tennessee St.	OVC	-14.7227	0.0000	220.8
220		NC Greensboro	SC	-14.7640	0.0000	229.2
221		Liberty	BSth	-14.7654	0.0000	223.2
222		Pepperdine	WCC	-14.8144	0.0000	210.8
223		Yale	Ivy	-14.9063	0.0000	223.0
224		La Salle	A10	-14.9151	0.0000	200.6
225		High Point	BSth	-15.0033	0.0000	228.6
226		Troy	SB	-15.1682	0.0000	225.8
227		Lamar	Slnd	-15.1814	0.0000	232.1
228		Cleveland St.	Horz	-15.2762	0.0000	229.9
229		Northern Arizona	BSky	-15.3003	0.0000	234.9
230		Chicago St.	MCon	-15.3641	0.0000	216.6
231		Fairfield	MAAC	-15.5014	0.0000	217.8
232		Coppin St.	MEAC	-15.5630	0.0000	229.4
233		Marshall	CUSA	-15.5732	0.0000	209.2
234		Northeastern	CAA	-15.6900	0.0000	213.2
235		Arkansas St.	SB	-15.6918	0.0000	237.9
236		William & Mary	CAA	-15.7213	0.0000	215.1
237		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-15.8433	0.0000	235.7
238		Central Michigan	MAC	-15.9229	0.0000	230.6
239		Northern Illinois	MAC	-15.9621	0.0000	234.2
240		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-16.2166	0.0000	240.8
241		Rutgers	BE	-16.3002	0.0000	187.6
242		Charleston Southern	BSth	-16.8308	0.0000	255.1
243		Mercer	ASun	-16.9126	0.0000	255.5
244		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-16.9702	0.0000	249.3
245		Stony Brook	AE	-17.0979	0.0000	253.8
246		Bowling Green	MAC	-17.1409	0.0000	243.7
247		Texas Pan American	ind	-17.1830	0.0000	256.9
248	X	Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-17.2324	0.0000	261.8
249		Campbell	ASun	-17.2425	0.0000	254.2
250		Florida A&M	MEAC	-17.3203	0.0000	262.7
251		St. Peter's	MAAC	-17.3660	0.0000	257.0
252		Detroit	Horz	-17.3832	0.0000	236.6
253		Howard	MEAC	-17.4061	0.0000	270.3
254		Florida International	SB	-17.8330	0.0000	253.5
255		Binghamton	AE	-17.8830	0.0000	264.2
256		IUPU Fort Wayne	ind	-17.9034	0.0000	264.1
257		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-17.9569	0.0000	268.7
258		Lafayette	Pat	-17.9727	0.0000	247.1
259		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-17.9824	0.0000	268.8
260		Hampton	MEAC	-18.0442	0.0000	267.9
261		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-18.1274	0.0000	255.7
262		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-18.1554	0.0000	233.6
263		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-18.1598	0.0000	272.2
264		Florida Atlantic	SB	-18.1683	0.0000	256.3
265		Cal Poly	BW	-18.2217	0.0000	266.8
266		Wright St.	Horz	-18.3397	0.0000	256.9
267		McNeese St.	Slnd	-18.5411	0.0000	263.4
268		St. Francis PA	NEC	-18.5580	0.0000	276.0
269		Niagara	MAAC	-18.7149	0.0000	274.2
270		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-18.7433	0.0000	284.3
271		Stetson	ASun	-18.7545	0.0000	266.5
272		East Carolina	CUSA	-18.7709	0.0000	257.2
273		Radford	BSth	-18.8756	0.0000	272.0
274		Wofford	SC	-18.8884	0.0000	271.0
275		San Jose St.	WAC	-18.9616	0.0000	247.6
276		NC Asheville	BSth	-19.0435	0.0000	276.8
277		Southern	SWAC	-19.2375	0.0000	284.0
278		Colgate	Pat	-19.3714	0.0000	273.0
279		Duquesne	A10	-19.4094	0.0000	256.1
280		Centenary	MCon	-19.4940	0.0000	273.7
281		Texas Southern	SWAC	-19.4951	0.0000	284.5
282		Georgia St.	CAA	-19.5346	0.0000	257.1
283		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-19.5793	0.0000	292.6
284		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-19.6553	0.0000	278.4
285		Morgan St.	MEAC	-19.7160	0.0000	291.5
286		Quinnipiac	NEC	-19.8168	0.0000	294.1
287		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-19.8776	0.0000	263.2
288		Gardner Webb	ASun	-19.9544	0.0000	274.4
289		Long Island	NEC	-20.0007	0.0000	299.1
290		Grambling	SWAC	-20.0107	0.0000	296.0
291		Longwood	ind	-20.1180	0.0000	281.4
292		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-20.1726	0.0000	293.8
293		Western Illinois	MCon	-20.2808	0.0000	290.2
294		Missouri Kansas City	MCon	-20.2968	0.0000	287.5
295		Iona	MAAC	-20.4279	0.0000	291.0
296		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-20.7643	0.0000	293.9
297		Central Connecticut	NEC	-20.7929	0.0000	301.3
298		Manhattan	MAAC	-20.7972	0.0000	295.4
299		Colorado	B12	-20.8122	0.0000	250.1
300		UC Riverside	BW	-20.8727	0.0000	294.3
301		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-21.1970	0.0000	301.2
302		Wagner	NEC	-21.2465	0.0000	309.1
303		New Hampshire	AE	-21.3856	0.0000	310.0
304		Dartmouth	Ivy	-21.4160	0.0000	292.0
305		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-21.4964	0.0000	307.6
306		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-21.6249	0.0000	315.8
307		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-21.7289	0.0000	297.8
308		Savannah St.	ind	-21.7975	0.0000	306.2
309		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-21.8069	0.0000	313.4
310		Alabama St.	SWAC	-21.8418	0.0000	310.2
311		UC Davis	ind	-21.9177	0.0000	317.3
312		Sacramento St.	BSky	-21.9282	0.0000	305.9
313		St. Francis NY	NEC	-22.4037	0.0000	313.5
314		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-22.4985	0.0000	322.9
315		Delaware	CAA	-22.5832	0.0000	304.3
316		James Madison	CAA	-22.6228	0.0000	296.6
317		The Citadel	SC	-22.6633	0.0000	300.0
318		Northern Colorado	BSky	-22.7394	0.0000	324.6
319		Idaho	WAC	-22.7530	0.0000	289.2
320		Elon	SC	-22.7683	0.0000	301.6
321		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-22.7881	0.0000	302.6
322		Texas St.	Slnd	-22.8550	0.0000	317.1
323		St. Bonaventure	A10	-22.9065	0.0000	300.5
324		Portland	WCC	-23.3380	0.0000	301.9
325		Montana St.	BSky	-23.4318	0.0000	323.8
326		South Dakota St.	ind	-23.4396	0.0000	328.6
327		Winston Salem St.	ind	-23.5033	0.0000	321.9
328		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-23.5255	0.0000	322.0
329		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-23.6675	0.0000	326.3
330		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-23.7316	0.0000	333.2
331		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-23.7789	0.0000	315.0
332		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-23.7886	0.0000	323.2
333		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-23.8238	0.0000	324.1
334		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.8456	0.0000	333.5
335		North Florida	ASun	-23.8623	0.0000	329.8
336		Denver	SB	-24.9088	0.0000	334.6

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, and to Jay Colemen for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com