Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Dec 18, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	Duke	ACC	9.0479	1.0000	1.6
2	X	West Virginia	BE	8.6992	1.0000	5.3
3		North Carolina	ACC	8.6063	1.0000	2.2
4	X	Kansas	B12	7.5306	1.0000	6.5
5		Texas	B12	6.6821	1.0000	5.2
6	X	Tennessee	SEC	6.2678	1.0000	7.3
7	X	Memphis	CUSA	5.8051	1.0000	15.0
8		Mississippi	SEC	5.7866	1.0000	14.6
9	X	Xavier	A10	5.6659	1.0000	12.5
10		Marquette	BE	5.5161	1.0000	15.7
11	X	UCLA	P10	5.2087	1.0000	16.3
12		Pittsburgh	BE	4.9862	1.0000	15.6
13		Rhode Island	A10	4.9249	1.0000	17.0
14		Michigan St.	B10	4.9043	1.0000	15.4
15		Miami FL	ACC	4.8635	1.0000	14.3
16		Indiana	B10	4.5397	1.0000	22.0
17		Arizona	P10	4.5286	1.0000	12.7
18		Georgetown	BE	4.3141	1.0000	24.2
19		Texas A&M	B12	4.2148	1.0000	22.1
20		Clemson	ACC	4.0433	1.0000	22.3
21	X	Wisconsin	B10	3.9663	1.0000	25.8
22	X	Butler	Horz	3.6176	0.9999	35.2
23	X	Gonzaga	WCC	3.6157	0.9999	27.6
24		Washington St.	P10	3.4991	0.9998	25.8
25		Missouri	B12	3.4141	0.9997	26.1
26		California	P10	3.0546	0.9989	26.4
27		Vanderbilt	SEC	2.9543	0.9984	25.7
28		Arkansas	SEC	2.6719	0.9962	27.5
29		Stanford	P10	2.5277	0.9943	32.5
30		Florida St.	ACC	2.2568	0.9880	30.7
31		Southern California	P10	2.1476	0.9841	38.9
32		Providence	BE	2.0858	0.9815	34.3
33		Oregon	P10	2.0264	0.9786	31.9
34		Dayton	A10	1.8497	0.9678	34.6
35		Baylor	B12	1.7713	0.9617	36.2
36		Duquesne	A10	1.5352	0.9376	42.9
37	X	Drake	MVC	1.3452	0.9107	46.9
38		Notre Dame	BE	1.2841	0.9004	46.6
39	X	Holy Cross	Pat	1.1617	0.8773	46.5
40		Creighton	MVC	1.1406	0.8730	46.9
41		St. Mary's	WCC	1.0199	0.8461	55.2
42	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.9195	0.8211	36.4
43		Minnesota	B10	0.8827	0.8113	42.1
44		Oklahoma	B12	0.8080	0.7905	41.6
45	X	South Alabama	SB	0.7966	0.7871	52.6
46		Brigham Young	MWC	0.7641	0.7776	52.6
47		Syracuse	BE	0.6808	0.7520	35.2
48		New Mexico	MWC	0.5741	0.7170	52.2
49	X	Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.4354	0.6684	57.2
50		Ohio St.	B10	0.3233	0.6268	46.4
51		George Mason	CAA	0.1457	0.5579	60.0
52		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-0.1783	0.4293	52.0
53		Louisville	BE	-0.3085	0.3789	50.4
54		Florida	SEC	-0.4434	0.3287	56.8
55		Kent St.	MAC	-0.5623	0.2869	65.9
56		Massachusetts	A10	-0.5768	0.2820	57.6
57		Illinois	B10	-0.6183	0.2682	52.9
58		Boston College	ACC	-0.6352	0.2626	47.8
59		Connecticut	BE	-0.7273	0.2335	50.2
60	X	Miami OH	MAC	-0.9269	0.1770	64.7
61		Villanova	BE	-1.0376	0.1497	61.0
62		South Carolina	SEC	-1.0619	0.1441	58.8
63		Valparaiso	Horz	-1.3034	0.0962	68.3
64		Western Kentucky	SB	-1.3183	0.0937	75.7
65	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-1.3336	0.0912	75.1
66		North Texas	SB	-1.7255	0.0422	78.1
67		San Diego St.	MWC	-1.8229	0.0342	60.8
68		UAB	CUSA	-1.8624	0.0313	67.7
69		Houston	CUSA	-1.9113	0.0280	70.9
70		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-1.9613	0.0249	68.0
71	X	Winthrop	BSth	-1.9853	0.0236	85.1
72		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-2.0018	0.0227	78.0
73		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-2.0094	0.0222	79.7
74		James Madison	CAA	-2.0175	0.0218	81.2
75		Arizona St.	P10	-2.2236	0.0131	65.0
76		Ohio	MAC	-2.4466	0.0072	78.3
77		Virginia	ACC	-2.4985	0.0062	71.6
78		Texas Tech	B12	-2.6007	0.0047	65.8
79	X	IUPUI	Sum	-2.7726	0.0028	98.4
80	X	Siena	MAAC	-2.8685	0.0021	89.5
81	X	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-2.9445	0.0016	93.7
82	X	Davidson	SC	-3.1495	0.0008	105.3
83		South Florida	BE	-3.2527	0.0006	85.1
84		Illinois St.	MVC	-3.3515	0.0004	83.9
85		Nebraska	B12	-3.3664	0.0004	87.4
86		Nevada	WAC	-3.5039	0.0002	92.7
87		Utah	MWC	-3.5518	0.0002	82.3
88	X	Hampton	MEAC	-3.8526	0.0001	100.6
89		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-3.8622	0.0001	99.7
90		Georgia Southern	SC	-3.8907	0.0000	102.6
91		Purdue	B10	-4.0945	0.0000	91.9
92		Alabama	SEC	-4.2227	0.0000	81.8
93		Oklahoma St.	B12	-4.2258	0.0000	77.1
94		Temple	A10	-4.2267	0.0000	92.3
95		Kansas St.	B12	-4.3318	0.0000	79.4
96		Mississippi St.	SEC	-4.3933	0.0000	84.2
97		Pacific	BW	-4.4003	0.0000	105.0
98		Niagara	MAAC	-4.4030	0.0000	110.5
99		North Carolina St.	ACC	-4.6293	0.0000	94.8
100		Saint Joseph's	A10	-4.6547	0.0000	86.2
101		Maryland	ACC	-4.6827	0.0000	79.9
102	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-4.7051	0.0000	101.7
103		Georgia Tech	ACC	-4.7344	0.0000	91.3
104		Georgia	SEC	-4.8929	0.0000	89.1
105		Virginia Tech	ACC	-5.0059	0.0000	95.0
106		Bradley	MVC	-5.2540	0.0000	96.8
107		Louisiana St.	SEC	-5.2867	0.0000	94.0
108		Oral Roberts	Sum	-5.3168	0.0000	120.3
109		Old Dominion	CAA	-5.4364	0.0000	101.8
110		Morgan St.	MEAC	-5.4710	0.0000	125.4
111		Cleveland St.	Horz	-5.7722	0.0000	110.2
112		Central Michigan	MAC	-5.8556	0.0000	118.7
113	X	MD Baltimore County	AE	-5.9232	0.0000	127.5
114		Kentucky	SEC	-5.9517	0.0000	96.4
115		Akron	MAC	-6.3369	0.0000	117.9
116	X	Brown	Ivy	-6.4779	0.0000	126.0
117		Southern Illinois	MVC	-6.5493	0.0000	113.1
118		Wright St.	Horz	-6.5621	0.0000	125.9
119		Chattanooga	SC	-6.7286	0.0000	130.3
120		St. John's	BE	-6.7747	0.0000	99.8
121		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-6.7904	0.0000	125.1
122	X	Northern Arizona	BSky	-6.8956	0.0000	139.7
123		Seton Hall	BE	-7.0578	0.0000	104.7
124		Portland St.	BSky	-7.2130	0.0000	143.0
125		Missouri St.	MVC	-7.2850	0.0000	117.7
126		Northeastern	CAA	-7.4146	0.0000	125.6
127		Santa Clara	WCC	-7.5071	0.0000	130.4
128		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-7.5164	0.0000	131.7
129		Central Florida	CUSA	-7.5495	0.0000	126.5
130		Marist	MAAC	-7.5874	0.0000	133.6
131		Marshall	CUSA	-7.6917	0.0000	127.1
132		Boise St.	WAC	-7.7147	0.0000	143.8
133		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-7.9043	0.0000	148.5
134		Long Island	NEC	-8.2692	0.0000	149.2
135	X	East Tennessee St.	ASun	-8.3248	0.0000	151.2
136		Washington	P10	-8.4265	0.0000	115.9
137		Wagner	NEC	-8.7932	0.0000	162.0
138		Penn St.	B10	-8.7980	0.0000	127.7
139		Charlotte	A10	-8.9459	0.0000	142.2
140		Texas Christian	MWC	-8.9646	0.0000	132.9
141		Wichita St.	MVC	-8.9903	0.0000	132.3
142		Troy	SB	-9.0344	0.0000	145.4
143	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-9.0409	0.0000	159.7
144		Tulane	CUSA	-9.0787	0.0000	139.3
145		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-9.1648	0.0000	153.9
146		Albany	AE	-9.1664	0.0000	167.5
147		Wake Forest	ACC	-9.1975	0.0000	136.3
148		Northern Iowa	MVC	-9.3715	0.0000	149.4
149		St. Louis	A10	-9.5219	0.0000	133.2
150		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-9.5527	0.0000	143.8
151		Montana	BSky	-9.8729	0.0000	166.1
152		Auburn	SEC	-9.9222	0.0000	136.9
153		Western Michigan	MAC	-10.0293	0.0000	159.5
154		Montana St.	BSky	-10.0366	0.0000	167.2
155		North Dakota St.	Sum	-10.1502	0.0000	171.7
156		NC Wilmington	CAA	-10.1668	0.0000	156.8
157		Belmont	ASun	-10.2484	0.0000	185.9
158		Fresno St.	WAC	-10.3140	0.0000	158.9
159		New Orleans	SB	-10.3260	0.0000	163.7
160		Austin Peay	OVC	-10.5831	0.0000	185.5
161		Fordham	A10	-10.6961	0.0000	151.7
162		Rider	MAAC	-10.7415	0.0000	178.4
163	X	Murray St.	OVC	-10.7443	0.0000	186.4
164		Cornell	Ivy	-10.8372	0.0000	181.3
165	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-10.8571	0.0000	197.2
166		Michigan	B10	-10.9050	0.0000	137.9
167		College of Charleston	SC	-10.9546	0.0000	173.5
168		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-10.9807	0.0000	169.5
169		Yale	Ivy	-11.1265	0.0000	177.6
170		Lafayette	Pat	-11.2100	0.0000	181.7
171		San Diego	WCC	-11.5586	0.0000	157.3
172		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-11.6426	0.0000	192.9
173		Oakland	Sum	-11.7824	0.0000	186.8
174		Iowa St.	B12	-11.7852	0.0000	145.9
175		Pepperdine	WCC	-11.8588	0.0000	171.5
176		American	Pat	-11.8997	0.0000	183.3
177		Colorado St.	MWC	-12.0113	0.0000	155.0
178		Toledo	MAC	-12.0166	0.0000	175.7
179		UC Irvine	BW	-12.0373	0.0000	175.5
180		Tulsa	CUSA	-12.3680	0.0000	175.2
181		NC Asheville	BSth	-12.3735	0.0000	194.8
182		East Carolina	CUSA	-12.3949	0.0000	182.4
183		Manhattan	MAAC	-12.4064	0.0000	201.7
184		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-12.4371	0.0000	194.7
185		Gardner Webb	ASun	-12.6114	0.0000	204.2
186		Detroit	Horz	-12.6190	0.0000	187.7
187		DePaul	BE	-12.6865	0.0000	155.3
188		Colgate	Pat	-12.6943	0.0000	194.5
189		Bucknell	Pat	-12.7903	0.0000	195.8
190		Elon	SC	-12.9792	0.0000	201.4
191		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-13.0973	0.0000	187.2
192		McNeese St.	Slnd	-13.2263	0.0000	203.2
193		Colorado	B12	-13.2314	0.0000	168.6
194		George Washington	A10	-13.2396	0.0000	186.9
195		William & Mary	CAA	-13.5330	0.0000	196.3
196		NC Greensboro	SC	-13.5624	0.0000	211.0
197		Utah St.	WAC	-13.5655	0.0000	207.0
198		New Hampshire	AE	-13.7791	0.0000	217.8
199		Drexel	CAA	-13.7881	0.0000	193.7
200		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-13.8458	0.0000	226.7
201		Harvard	Ivy	-13.8501	0.0000	208.3
202		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-13.9367	0.0000	209.8
203		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-14.0262	0.0000	220.2
204		Indiana St.	MVC	-14.0851	0.0000	182.5
205		Richmond	A10	-14.5018	0.0000	201.3
206		Wofford	SC	-14.5098	0.0000	216.5
207		Rutgers	BE	-14.6401	0.0000	173.3
208		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-14.6802	0.0000	217.5
209		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-14.7005	0.0000	213.7
210		Hawaii	WAC	-14.8861	0.0000	218.9
211		Boston University	AE	-14.8958	0.0000	225.4
212		Northwestern	B10	-14.9068	0.0000	185.5
213		St. Peter's	MAAC	-14.9235	0.0000	223.7
214		Buffalo	MAC	-15.0937	0.0000	208.3
215		Youngstown St.	Horz	-15.1252	0.0000	205.9
216		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-15.1635	0.0000	223.9
217		Jacksonville	ASun	-15.2559	0.0000	234.9
218		Air Force	MWC	-15.3045	0.0000	200.5
219		Centenary	Sum	-15.3096	0.0000	230.1
220		Appalachian St.	SC	-15.3156	0.0000	232.8
221		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-15.3250	0.0000	213.4
222		High Point	BSth	-15.3647	0.0000	232.3
223		Mercer	ASun	-15.3714	0.0000	247.6
224		Columbia	Ivy	-15.4030	0.0000	233.6
225		Liberty	BSth	-15.5806	0.0000	234.8
226		Iona	MAAC	-15.6654	0.0000	232.3
227		Loyola MD	MAAC	-15.7423	0.0000	230.1
228		St. Bonaventure	A10	-15.7538	0.0000	211.3
229		Evansville	MVC	-15.7816	0.0000	205.8
230		Lehigh	Pat	-15.8475	0.0000	236.2
231		Utah Valley St.	ind	-15.8827	0.0000	256.2
232		Quinnipiac	NEC	-15.9231	0.0000	243.2
233		Hofstra	CAA	-16.0372	0.0000	223.8
234		Central Connecticut	NEC	-16.1054	0.0000	244.9
235		Northern Colorado	BSky	-16.2188	0.0000	247.9
236		UC Davis	BW	-16.3603	0.0000	235.6
237		Vermont	AE	-16.3780	0.0000	244.7
238		Hartford	AE	-16.4725	0.0000	234.6
239		Cincinnati	BE	-16.5274	0.0000	195.1
240		Weber St.	BSky	-16.5274	0.0000	243.4
241		Cal Poly	BW	-16.5486	0.0000	227.7
242		La Salle	A10	-16.6257	0.0000	222.7
243		Delaware	CAA	-16.6294	0.0000	232.2
244		Sacred Heart	NEC	-16.7171	0.0000	248.3
245		Oregon St.	P10	-16.8400	0.0000	205.9
246		Bowling Green	MAC	-16.9548	0.0000	230.9
247		Tennessee St.	OVC	-16.9971	0.0000	256.4
248		San Francisco	WCC	-17.0253	0.0000	226.0
249		St. Francis NY	NEC	-17.0999	0.0000	254.1
250		Texas Southern	SWAC	-17.1246	0.0000	254.4
251		Wyoming	MWC	-17.1476	0.0000	221.0
252		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-17.1684	0.0000	252.3
253		St. Francis PA	NEC	-17.2926	0.0000	259.0
254		Iowa	B10	-17.3232	0.0000	217.6
255		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-17.4229	0.0000	260.6
256		Portland	WCC	-17.4492	0.0000	241.6
257		Middle Tennessee	SB	-17.4992	0.0000	238.2
258		San Jose St.	WAC	-17.5720	0.0000	259.7
259		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-17.6143	0.0000	255.3
260		Dartmouth	Ivy	-17.9381	0.0000	265.4
261		Fairfield	MAAC	-17.9487	0.0000	255.4
262		Princeton	Ivy	-17.9500	0.0000	267.3
263		Lipscomb	ASun	-17.9650	0.0000	272.9
264		Chicago St.	ind	-18.0313	0.0000	254.8
265		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-18.0809	0.0000	236.8
266		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-18.1036	0.0000	278.4
267		Towson	CAA	-18.1537	0.0000	253.1
268		Delaware St.	MEAC	-18.2512	0.0000	265.1
269		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-18.3361	0.0000	271.0
270		Eastern Washington	BSky	-18.4000	0.0000	264.7
271		South Dakota St.	Sum	-18.4431	0.0000	268.1
272		Denver	SB	-18.7829	0.0000	263.8
273		Georgia St.	CAA	-18.8739	0.0000	251.1
274		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-18.9748	0.0000	276.1
275		Arkansas St.	SB	-19.0382	0.0000	267.0
276		UC Riverside	BW	-19.1554	0.0000	247.1
277		Southern Utah	Sum	-19.1579	0.0000	269.0
278		Long Beach St.	BW	-19.2938	0.0000	267.9
279		Texas St.	Slnd	-19.3543	0.0000	268.5
280		Army	Pat	-19.4234	0.0000	274.7
281		Southern	SWAC	-19.4740	0.0000	283.4
282		Samford	OVC	-19.4933	0.0000	288.9
283		Coppin St.	MEAC	-19.5022	0.0000	268.2
284		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-19.6107	0.0000	284.2
285		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-19.6315	0.0000	289.0
286		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-19.7869	0.0000	289.3
287		Florida Atlantic	SB	-19.8728	0.0000	265.2
288		Morehead St.	OVC	-19.9001	0.0000	286.8
289		Navy	Pat	-19.9083	0.0000	286.0
290		Lamar	Slnd	-20.2060	0.0000	285.2
291		Stetson	ASun	-20.2698	0.0000	292.7
292		Florida International	SB	-20.2845	0.0000	265.3
293		Ball St.	MAC	-20.3477	0.0000	273.6
294		Maine	AE	-20.4756	0.0000	290.6
295		Binghamton	AE	-20.7053	0.0000	304.3
296		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-20.7327	0.0000	300.5
297		Grambling	SWAC	-21.0184	0.0000	306.7
298		Monmouth	NEC	-21.0885	0.0000	298.2
299		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-21.1891	0.0000	309.0
300		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-21.2719	0.0000	297.9
301		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-21.2851	0.0000	284.4
302		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-21.4748	0.0000	314.4
303		Rice	CUSA	-21.4855	0.0000	275.3
304		Stony Brook	AE	-21.5495	0.0000	309.3
305		Campbell	ASun	-21.5505	0.0000	312.8
306		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-21.6004	0.0000	278.3
307		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-21.6124	0.0000	316.0
308		Charleston Southern	BSth	-21.6616	0.0000	307.0
309		Savannah St.	ind	-21.7504	0.0000	307.8
310		Radford	BSth	-21.8598	0.0000	304.8
311		Western Carolina	SC	-21.8636	0.0000	301.2
312		Western Illinois	Sum	-21.9488	0.0000	299.0
313		Furman	SC	-22.0373	0.0000	304.9
314		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-22.0913	0.0000	282.5
315		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-22.2795	0.0000	324.7
316		Sacramento St.	BSky	-22.3374	0.0000	309.7
317		Texas Pan American	ind	-22.4601	0.0000	327.2
318		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-22.5694	0.0000	318.7
319		Idaho	WAC	-22.6973	0.0000	309.6
320		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-22.7036	0.0000	314.4
321		Jackson St.	SWAC	-22.9018	0.0000	317.4
322		Howard	MEAC	-22.9718	0.0000	311.7
323		Longwood	ind	-23.0614	0.0000	325.8
324		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-23.1050	0.0000	303.7
325		North Carolina Central	ind	-23.1087	0.0000	318.4
326		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-23.1439	0.0000	332.3
327		Canisius	MAAC	-23.4698	0.0000	320.2
328		Idaho St.	BSky	-23.6011	0.0000	322.7
329		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-23.6591	0.0000	324.8
330		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-23.7081	0.0000	340.7
331		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-23.8305	0.0000	317.5
332		Northern Illinois	MAC	-23.8333	0.0000	313.0
333		Presbyterian	ind	-23.9792	0.0000	327.9
334		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-24.0581	0.0000	337.8
335		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-24.0815	0.0000	332.7
336		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-24.2148	0.0000	336.5
337		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-24.3944	0.0000	335.9
338		The Citadel	SC	-24.4299	0.0000	321.4
339		Florida A&M	MEAC	-24.7744	0.0000	327.0
340		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-24.9397	0.0000	337.6
341		North Florida	ASun	-25.1342	0.0000	338.7

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com