Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Nov 17, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1		Clemson	ACC	8.3702	1.0000	2.9
2	X	Duke	ACC	8.0483	1.0000	2.1
3	X	Notre Dame	BE	7.2543	1.0000	7.0
4	X	Memphis	CUSA	6.8822	1.0000	9.4
5	X	Wisconsin	B10	6.7728	1.0000	10.4
6	X	Florida	SEC	6.2983	1.0000	10.8
7		North Carolina	ACC	5.7298	1.0000	8.7
8		UCLA	P10	5.4024	1.0000	12.0
9	X	Kansas	B12	5.2417	1.0000	14.4
10		Louisville	BE	5.1085	1.0000	15.1
11		Georgetown	BE	4.8034	1.0000	15.3
12	X	Gonzaga	WCC	4.5975	1.0000	19.4
13	X	Stanford	P10	4.5699	1.0000	19.1
14		Syracuse	BE	4.0676	1.0000	16.3
15		Texas	B12	4.0446	1.0000	15.7
16		Mississippi St.	SEC	4.0242	1.0000	20.2
17		Michigan St.	B10	3.9924	1.0000	20.2
18		Missouri	B12	3.9639	1.0000	20.6
19		Vanderbilt	SEC	3.7739	0.9999	22.6
20	X	Brigham Young	MWC	3.6130	0.9998	29.7
21		Virginia	ACC	3.4583	0.9997	23.6
22		Mississippi	SEC	3.0550	0.9989	29.5
23		Oklahoma St.	B12	3.0449	0.9988	23.8
24		Miami FL	ACC	3.0181	0.9987	24.1
25		Oklahoma	B12	2.9361	0.9983	26.6
26		Pittsburgh	BE	2.7619	0.9971	28.6
27	X	Butler	Horz	2.5241	0.9942	37.0
28	X	Holy Cross	Pat	2.4516	0.9929	30.2
29		Oregon	P10	2.1138	0.9827	34.6
30		Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	1.9726	0.9757	30.7
31		Texas A&M	B12	1.6117	0.9465	36.3
32		Villanova	BE	1.5886	0.9439	41.7
33		Providence	BE	1.4891	0.9318	41.2
34		Indiana	B10	1.4802	0.9306	39.8
35	X	Old Dominion	CAA	1.4760	0.9300	42.3
36		Xavier	A10	1.4538	0.9270	43.1
37		West Virginia	BE	1.3552	0.9123	42.8
38	X	Nevada	WAC	1.0040	0.8423	46.4
39		Connecticut	BE	0.8862	0.8123	38.6
40		New Mexico	MWC	0.8328	0.7975	44.9
41		Washington St.	P10	0.8310	0.7970	47.2
42	X	Duquesne	A10	0.6958	0.7567	54.2
43	X	Siena	MAAC	0.5736	0.7169	55.3
44		Bucknell	Pat	0.5330	0.7030	47.9
45		Creighton	MVC	0.5071	0.6939	53.7
46		North Carolina St.	ACC	0.3160	0.6240	47.3
47		Saint Joseph's	A10	0.2985	0.6173	47.9
48		Illinois	B10	0.2877	0.6132	44.4
49	X	Missouri St.	MVC	0.2657	0.6048	54.3
50		Arkansas	SEC	0.2068	0.5819	46.4
51		Washington	P10	0.0924	0.5368	53.0
52	X	Winthrop	BSth	-0.0639	0.4745	62.9
53		Southern Illinois	MVC	-0.0658	0.4738	53.6
54		Georgia	SEC	-0.3108	0.3780	55.1
55		Wake Forest	ACC	-0.3637	0.3581	58.8
56		Arizona	P10	-0.5230	0.3005	45.4
57		Florida St.	ACC	-0.8256	0.2045	52.1
58		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-0.9086	0.1818	63.2
59		George Mason	CAA	-0.9336	0.1752	63.3
60		Western Kentucky	SB	-0.9755	0.1647	73.7
61		Ohio St.	B10	-1.1880	0.1174	63.0
62		Northern Iowa	MVC	-1.3070	0.0956	69.3
63		Alabama	SEC	-1.4534	0.0731	55.0
64		North Texas	SB	-1.5358	0.0623	80.1
65	X	Miami OH	MAC	-1.5579	0.0596	76.3
66	X	South Alabama	SB	-1.6566	0.0488	73.5
67		Maryland	ACC	-1.7556	0.0396	54.9
68	X	Davidson	SC	-1.7647	0.0388	85.0
69		South Carolina	SEC	-1.7813	0.0374	69.8
70		Massachusetts	A10	-1.8883	0.0295	63.8
71		Rhode Island	A10	-2.2682	0.0117	74.4
72	X	North Dakota St.	Sum	-2.3172	0.0102	95.2
73		Marquette	BE	-2.3197	0.0102	68.5
74		Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-2.3218	0.0101	80.5
75	X	Albany	AE	-2.3871	0.0085	83.5
76	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-2.4578	0.0070	95.5
77		Georgia Tech	ACC	-2.5169	0.0059	71.0
78		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-2.5589	0.0053	93.4
79		Utah	MWC	-2.5646	0.0052	67.0
80		Houston	CUSA	-2.5883	0.0048	77.3
81	X	UC Santa Barbara	BW	-2.6844	0.0036	87.7
82	X	Texas Arlington	Slnd	-2.8017	0.0025	90.8
83		Manhattan	MAAC	-3.1251	0.0009	97.6
84		UAB	CUSA	-3.2923	0.0005	89.4
85		Colorado St.	MWC	-3.7392	0.0001	81.8
86		Michigan	B10	-3.8216	0.0001	82.1
87	X	Belmont	ASun	-3.8689	0.0001	102.6
88		Kent St.	MAC	-3.9174	0.0000	99.0
89		San Diego St.	MWC	-4.1551	0.0000	85.0
90		Central Florida	CUSA	-4.1859	0.0000	102.5
91		Iowa	B10	-4.4530	0.0000	88.8
92		Tulane	CUSA	-4.4922	0.0000	103.1
93		St. Louis	A10	-4.4965	0.0000	87.7
94		St. Mary's	WCC	-4.5424	0.0000	105.8
95		Kansas St.	B12	-4.6493	0.0000	92.5
96		Air Force	MWC	-4.7520	0.0000	92.1
97		Hofstra	CAA	-4.7618	0.0000	101.0
98		Texas Tech	B12	-4.9430	0.0000	91.0
99		Charlotte	A10	-5.0033	0.0000	96.9
100		Tennessee	SEC	-5.0939	0.0000	86.2
101		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-5.1067	0.0000	107.9
102		George Washington	A10	-5.1543	0.0000	101.9
103		California	P10	-5.3493	0.0000	93.0
104		DePaul	BE	-5.3980	0.0000	90.2
105		Drexel	CAA	-5.4148	0.0000	108.4
106		Ohio	MAC	-5.6315	0.0000	112.3
107	X	Northern Arizona	BSky	-5.9208	0.0000	124.0
108		Valparaiso	Horz	-5.9334	0.0000	117.2
109		Baylor	B12	-5.9940	0.0000	103.0
110		Georgia Southern	SC	-6.0326	0.0000	124.3
111		Boston College	ACC	-6.1486	0.0000	94.7
112		Virginia Tech	ACC	-6.2088	0.0000	100.2
113		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-6.2097	0.0000	128.6
114		James Madison	CAA	-6.2156	0.0000	118.8
115		Hampton	MEAC	-6.2764	0.0000	127.1
116		Purdue	B10	-6.3145	0.0000	107.7
117		Minnesota	B10	-6.4171	0.0000	109.1
118		Northeastern	CAA	-6.4528	0.0000	118.1
119		Kentucky	SEC	-6.4871	0.0000	101.4
120		Penn St.	B10	-6.5962	0.0000	108.3
121		Dayton	A10	-6.6890	0.0000	106.8
122		Bowling Green	MAC	-6.8822	0.0000	133.2
123		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-6.8839	0.0000	141.2
124		Louisiana St.	SEC	-6.9195	0.0000	106.3
125	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-7.0713	0.0000	146.6
126		Vermont	AE	-7.0976	0.0000	137.0
127		Cleveland St.	Horz	-7.2277	0.0000	130.7
128		Southern California	P10	-7.4813	0.0000	117.6
129		San Francisco	WCC	-7.6457	0.0000	136.8
130		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-7.7112	0.0000	144.6
131		Toledo	MAC	-7.8760	0.0000	140.6
132		Pacific	BW	-7.8965	0.0000	144.9
133		Montana	BSky	-8.0280	0.0000	148.4
134	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-8.0474	0.0000	156.7
135		Portland St.	BSky	-8.1101	0.0000	145.9
136		Seton Hall	BE	-8.1564	0.0000	121.3
137		Bradley	MVC	-8.2682	0.0000	133.5
138		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-8.4294	0.0000	145.8
139		New Hampshire	AE	-8.5337	0.0000	151.4
140		San Diego	WCC	-8.5493	0.0000	141.8
141		New Mexico St.	WAC	-8.6033	0.0000	145.8
142		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-8.6786	0.0000	135.4
143		Northwestern	B10	-8.6953	0.0000	130.8
144		Niagara	MAAC	-8.7769	0.0000	152.8
145		NC Wilmington	CAA	-8.8158	0.0000	140.6
146		Texas Christian	MWC	-8.8270	0.0000	128.3
147		Santa Clara	WCC	-8.8270	0.0000	150.7
148		Hawaii	WAC	-9.0500	0.0000	154.0
149		Wright St.	Horz	-9.1095	0.0000	151.3
150		Appalachian St.	SC	-9.1757	0.0000	162.8
151		Detroit	Horz	-9.4956	0.0000	154.2
152		Montana St.	BSky	-9.5046	0.0000	165.8
153		Marist	MAAC	-9.5221	0.0000	155.6
154		Gardner Webb	ASun	-9.5523	0.0000	163.6
155		Drake	MVC	-9.5764	0.0000	150.7
156		Rutgers	BE	-9.6244	0.0000	139.7
157		IUPUI	Sum	-9.6474	0.0000	171.7
158		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-9.7450	0.0000	156.6
159		Fordham	A10	-9.8521	0.0000	144.1
160		Illinois St.	MVC	-9.8871	0.0000	152.5
161		Colorado	B12	-10.0491	0.0000	146.1
162		St. John's	BE	-10.0690	0.0000	140.1
163		Tulsa	CUSA	-10.0705	0.0000	158.0
164		Iowa St.	B12	-10.2172	0.0000	151.3
165		Cal Poly	BW	-10.3227	0.0000	170.5
166	X	Princeton	Ivy	-10.3611	0.0000	181.0
167		Central Connecticut	NEC	-10.5331	0.0000	185.2
168		UC Irvine	BW	-10.6387	0.0000	165.4
169		Oakland	Sum	-10.7298	0.0000	176.4
170		MD Baltimore County	AE	-10.7680	0.0000	173.3
171		Jacksonville	ASun	-10.9074	0.0000	188.2
172		William & Mary	CAA	-10.9318	0.0000	163.5
173		Yale	Ivy	-11.1103	0.0000	183.8
174		Boise St.	WAC	-11.1571	0.0000	176.0
175		Samford	OVC	-11.2011	0.0000	188.7
176		NC Asheville	BSth	-11.4217	0.0000	183.2
177		Troy	SB	-11.4366	0.0000	172.0
178		Central Michigan	MAC	-11.4930	0.0000	187.8
179		High Point	BSth	-11.5879	0.0000	188.7
180		College of Charleston	SC	-11.8143	0.0000	186.1
181		NC Greensboro	SC	-11.8519	0.0000	191.2
182		Marshall	CUSA	-11.8988	0.0000	171.5
183		San Jose St.	WAC	-11.8996	0.0000	191.1
184		Western Michigan	MAC	-11.9121	0.0000	192.2
185		Lehigh	Pat	-11.9628	0.0000	182.1
186		Arizona St.	P10	-11.9777	0.0000	156.8
187		Harvard	Ivy	-12.2483	0.0000	192.7
188		Cornell	Ivy	-12.3241	0.0000	199.3
189		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-12.3275	0.0000	192.5
190		Boston University	AE	-12.3447	0.0000	186.1
191		Cincinnati	BE	-12.4376	0.0000	159.4
192		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-12.5441	0.0000	208.6
193		American	Pat	-12.5977	0.0000	194.9
194		Oral Roberts	Sum	-12.6443	0.0000	201.2
195		Temple	A10	-12.9269	0.0000	180.2
196		Utah Valley St.	ind	-13.1694	0.0000	219.5
197		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-13.2077	0.0000	196.5
198		Western Carolina	SC	-13.2314	0.0000	202.0
199		Nebraska	B12	-13.2669	0.0000	179.0
200		Brown	Ivy	-13.2806	0.0000	209.1
201		Monmouth	NEC	-13.3059	0.0000	220.4
202		Colgate	Pat	-13.3683	0.0000	201.7
203		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-13.3939	0.0000	190.3
204		Elon	SC	-13.4516	0.0000	207.7
205		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-13.4937	0.0000	208.7
206		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-13.5195	0.0000	210.7
207		Long Island	NEC	-13.6070	0.0000	221.1
208		McNeese St.	Slnd	-13.6171	0.0000	217.6
209		Murray St.	OVC	-13.6284	0.0000	215.4
210		Chattanooga	SC	-13.7460	0.0000	207.4
211		Auburn	SEC	-13.7917	0.0000	172.1
212		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-13.9591	0.0000	209.8
213		Wagner	NEC	-14.0154	0.0000	224.4
214		New Orleans	SB	-14.0932	0.0000	206.5
215		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-14.1561	0.0000	200.2
216		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-14.3531	0.0000	221.1
217		Youngstown St.	Horz	-14.5456	0.0000	208.9
218		Iona	MAAC	-14.6329	0.0000	215.3
219		Middle Tennessee	SB	-14.7589	0.0000	208.9
220		Towson	CAA	-14.7846	0.0000	210.9
221		Northern Colorado	BSky	-14.8417	0.0000	227.4
222		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-14.9929	0.0000	226.2
223		Loyola MD	MAAC	-15.0443	0.0000	221.9
224		St. Peter's	MAAC	-15.0749	0.0000	221.8
225		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-15.0869	0.0000	230.9
226		Indiana St.	MVC	-15.1502	0.0000	197.8
227		Rider	MAAC	-15.2546	0.0000	226.3
228		Mercer	ASun	-15.3517	0.0000	245.1
229		Furman	SC	-15.3793	0.0000	229.5
230		Fairfield	MAAC	-15.4415	0.0000	219.7
231	X	Grambling	SWAC	-15.4924	0.0000	245.7
232		Oregon St.	P10	-15.5459	0.0000	195.4
233		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-15.7067	0.0000	225.7
234		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-15.8108	0.0000	237.9
235		Idaho St.	BSky	-15.8740	0.0000	232.2
236		Buffalo	MAC	-15.9152	0.0000	229.4
237		South Florida	BE	-15.9720	0.0000	204.6
238		Akron	MAC	-16.0047	0.0000	230.2
239		Weber St.	BSky	-16.0915	0.0000	236.0
240		Texas Southern	SWAC	-16.2275	0.0000	249.4
241		Evansville	MVC	-16.2283	0.0000	214.3
242		Fresno St.	WAC	-16.3985	0.0000	232.2
243		Utah St.	WAC	-16.5000	0.0000	240.0
244		St. Francis NY	NEC	-16.6097	0.0000	253.6
245		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-16.8632	0.0000	259.3
246		Wichita St.	MVC	-16.8729	0.0000	221.1
247		Navy	Pat	-16.9332	0.0000	244.6
248		Arkansas St.	SB	-17.2631	0.0000	246.1
249		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-17.2904	0.0000	252.4
250		Chicago St.	ind	-17.4145	0.0000	258.9
251		Pepperdine	WCC	-17.4320	0.0000	241.7
252		Charleston Southern	BSth	-17.4650	0.0000	256.7
253		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-17.4911	0.0000	256.1
254		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-17.5449	0.0000	273.6
255		Lipscomb	ASun	-17.6212	0.0000	267.0
256		Morehead St.	OVC	-17.6327	0.0000	258.1
257		Eastern Washington	BSky	-17.7390	0.0000	250.3
258		Delaware	CAA	-17.7512	0.0000	238.2
259		Ball St.	MAC	-17.7994	0.0000	252.9
260		Wofford	SC	-17.8843	0.0000	253.0
261		Richmond	A10	-17.9461	0.0000	239.1
262		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-17.9800	0.0000	260.8
263		Centenary	Sum	-18.0944	0.0000	259.8
264		La Salle	A10	-18.1520	0.0000	231.0
265		Hartford	AE	-18.2331	0.0000	254.5
266		Alabama St.	SWAC	-18.2433	0.0000	279.9
267		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-18.3048	0.0000	276.1
268		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-18.3822	0.0000	270.6
269		Tennessee St.	OVC	-18.6399	0.0000	260.9
270		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-18.7128	0.0000	269.9
271		Portland	WCC	-18.7710	0.0000	264.0
272		Stony Brook	AE	-18.8038	0.0000	270.9
273		Long Beach St.	BW	-18.9828	0.0000	264.0
274		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-19.1804	0.0000	278.2
275		Florida International	SB	-19.2345	0.0000	256.0
276		St. Bonaventure	A10	-19.3030	0.0000	249.3
277		Maine	AE	-19.4845	0.0000	273.0
278		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-19.4995	0.0000	286.0
279		UC Davis	BW	-19.5477	0.0000	279.8
280		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-19.5717	0.0000	284.4
281		Southern	SWAC	-19.6574	0.0000	290.1
282		Lafayette	Pat	-19.6631	0.0000	272.6
283		Coppin St.	MEAC	-19.7464	0.0000	279.6
284		Columbia	Ivy	-19.8666	0.0000	285.9
285		Northern Illinois	MAC	-20.0373	0.0000	274.7
286		Liberty	BSth	-20.3098	0.0000	287.4
287		Southern Utah	Sum	-20.3589	0.0000	285.7
288		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-20.3598	0.0000	288.3
289		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-20.3967	0.0000	290.3
290		Wyoming	MWC	-20.4065	0.0000	253.2
291		Western Illinois	Sum	-20.4800	0.0000	288.3
292		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-20.5045	0.0000	282.6
293		Texas St.	Slnd	-20.7286	0.0000	294.7
294		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-20.7662	0.0000	296.2
295		Jackson St.	SWAC	-20.7787	0.0000	303.8
296		UC Riverside	BW	-20.8766	0.0000	288.5
297		Quinnipiac	NEC	-20.9337	0.0000	301.3
298		Longwood	ind	-20.9823	0.0000	301.9
299		Rice	CUSA	-21.0026	0.0000	270.3
300		Lamar	Slnd	-21.0352	0.0000	297.7
301		East Carolina	CUSA	-21.0924	0.0000	279.0
302		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-21.1959	0.0000	306.4
303		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-21.2288	0.0000	294.4
304		St. Francis PA	NEC	-21.3647	0.0000	300.1
305		Denver	SB	-21.3933	0.0000	287.1
306		Idaho	WAC	-21.5825	0.0000	296.5
307		Dartmouth	Ivy	-21.6057	0.0000	306.6
308		Texas Pan American	ind	-21.6142	0.0000	315.9
309		Campbell	ASun	-21.6700	0.0000	310.5
310		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-21.6816	0.0000	320.7
311		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-21.8564	0.0000	318.0
312		Savannah St.	ind	-21.9245	0.0000	313.2
313		Florida Atlantic	SB	-22.0297	0.0000	291.8
314		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-22.1233	0.0000	309.7
315		North Florida	ASun	-22.3182	0.0000	316.8
316		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-22.3678	0.0000	299.6
317		South Dakota St.	Sum	-22.5125	0.0000	313.0
318		Radford	BSth	-22.5722	0.0000	305.9
319		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-22.7263	0.0000	316.6
320		Binghamton	AE	-22.8458	0.0000	316.6
321		Delaware St.	MEAC	-22.8468	0.0000	317.3
322		North Carolina Central	ind	-22.9265	0.0000	317.8
323		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.0035	0.0000	329.5
324		Howard	MEAC	-23.0901	0.0000	321.1
325		Sacred Heart	NEC	-23.1977	0.0000	317.1
326		Stetson	ASun	-23.3687	0.0000	322.7
327		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-23.3715	0.0000	328.2
328		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-23.4081	0.0000	320.6
329		Florida A&M	MEAC	-23.5587	0.0000	323.7
330		Georgia St.	CAA	-23.8083	0.0000	298.4
331		Army	Pat	-23.8136	0.0000	323.5
332		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-23.8823	0.0000	327.6
333		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-23.9764	0.0000	336.0
334		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-23.9996	0.0000	338.3
335		Sacramento St.	BSky	-24.0787	0.0000	323.0
336		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-24.3767	0.0000	333.6
337		Presbyterian	ind	-24.5023	0.0000	328.2
338		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-24.6184	0.0000	326.8
339		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-24.6255	0.0000	320.6
340		Canisius	MAAC	-25.7315	0.0000	333.0
341		The Citadel	SC	-26.3623	0.0000	338.2

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com