Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive

Through games of Jan 17, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	UCLA	P10	8.6196	1.0000	1.6
2	X	North Carolina	ACC	8.0421	1.0000	2.1
3	X	Florida	SEC	7.4921	1.0000	10.6
4		Pittsburgh	BE	7.3456	1.0000	5.5
5		Wisconsin	B10	7.0006	1.0000	8.8
6		Kentucky	SEC	6.8879	1.0000	6.5
7		Arizona	P10	6.8633	1.0000	5.9
8	X	Texas A&M	B12	6.2729	1.0000	12.1
9	X	Ohio St.	B10	6.0891	1.0000	10.6
10		Air Force	MWC	5.8548	1.0000	17.0
11		Duke	ACC	5.5533	1.0000	5.3
12		Kansas	B12	5.3435	1.0000	20.9
13	X	Memphis	CUSA	5.3406	1.0000	13.4
14		Georgia Tech	ACC	4.8676	1.0000	19.6
15		Oregon	P10	4.7778	1.0000	15.9
16		Clemson	ACC	4.7165	1.0000	18.3
17	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	4.7055	1.0000	18.9
18		Indiana	B10	4.6026	1.0000	21.1
19	X	Missouri St.	MVC	4.3919	1.0000	18.2
20	X	Butler	Horz	3.9900	1.0000	31.0
21		Oklahoma St.	B12	3.9366	1.0000	20.1
22	X	Nevada	WAC	3.7264	0.9999	33.0
23		Washington St.	P10	3.6958	0.9999	32.6
24		Villanova	BE	3.5556	0.9998	13.2
25		Tennessee	SEC	3.3142	0.9995	20.4
26		Alabama	SEC	3.1961	0.9993	22.7
27	X	Notre Dame	BE	3.1665	0.9992	34.7
28		Georgia	SEC	2.8818	0.9980	35.2
29	X	Xavier	A10	2.4903	0.9936	40.6
30		Michigan St.	B10	2.4865	0.9935	25.7
31		Purdue	B10	2.4541	0.9929	36.6
32		Maryland	ACC	2.4511	0.9929	22.8
33		Boston College	ACC	2.3343	0.9902	34.0
34		Marquette	BE	2.2092	0.9864	29.2
35		Georgetown	BE	2.0571	0.9802	38.4
36		Texas	B12	2.0187	0.9782	43.0
37		Syracuse	BE	1.8314	0.9665	32.7
38		Virginia Tech	ACC	1.5616	0.9408	40.4
39		West Virginia	BE	1.5257	0.9365	38.5
40		Arkansas	SEC	1.1968	0.8843	32.8
41		Southern Illinois	MVC	1.1926	0.8835	39.8
42		Creighton	MVC	1.1380	0.8724	43.5
43		Florida St.	ACC	1.1122	0.8670	37.0
44		Connecticut	BE	0.7457	0.7721	41.5
45		Drexel	CAA	0.7180	0.7636	52.9
46		Brigham Young	MWC	0.6601	0.7454	48.5
47		Louisiana St.	SEC	0.6496	0.7420	43.2
48		Illinois	B10	0.3888	0.6513	38.0
49		Wichita St.	MVC	0.2557	0.6009	52.9
50	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.2018	0.5800	58.1
51		California	P10	0.1346	0.5536	45.8
52		Texas Tech	B12	0.0566	0.5225	42.9
53		Mississippi St.	SEC	-0.1836	0.4271	50.1
54		Southern California	P10	-0.2001	0.4207	53.4
55	X	Gonzaga	WCC	-0.3232	0.3733	60.7
56		Providence	BE	-0.7174	0.2366	53.5
57	X	Davidson	SC	-0.8098	0.2090	71.9
58		Massachusetts	A10	-0.8344	0.2020	69.4
59		Stanford	P10	-0.8972	0.1848	56.1
60	X	Western Kentucky	SB	-0.9501	0.1710	69.5
61		DePaul	BE	-1.0115	0.1559	55.5
62		Bradley	MVC	-1.1296	0.1293	56.2
63		Michigan	B10	-1.2936	0.0979	55.3
64	X	Winthrop	BSth	-1.3071	0.0956	84.6
65		Oklahoma	B12	-1.5403	0.0617	57.4
66		Old Dominion	CAA	-1.7169	0.0430	68.8
67		Missouri	B12	-1.8076	0.0353	57.5
68	X	Pennsylvania	Ivy	-2.0465	0.0204	81.0
69		Northern Iowa	MVC	-2.1590	0.0154	74.9
70		Virginia	ACC	-2.2817	0.0113	70.2
71	X	Akron	MAC	-2.5578	0.0053	88.2
72		Dayton	A10	-2.6312	0.0043	74.9
73		Kansas St.	B12	-2.6456	0.0041	69.9
74		Nebraska	B12	-2.8529	0.0022	76.1
75		Louisville	BE	-2.8530	0.0022	65.3
76		Indiana St.	MVC	-2.9172	0.0018	76.1
77		Vanderbilt	SEC	-2.9870	0.0014	71.6
78		New Mexico St.	WAC	-2.9949	0.0014	89.0
79		San Diego St.	MWC	-3.1038	0.0010	75.7
80		Ohio	MAC	-3.1473	0.0008	89.2
81		Washington	P10	-3.1557	0.0008	68.4
82		Hofstra	CAA	-3.2100	0.0007	96.3
83		Appalachian St.	SC	-3.3725	0.0004	103.3
84		Colorado St.	MWC	-3.3766	0.0004	82.7
85		George Washington	A10	-3.4969	0.0002	87.2
86		St. Louis	A10	-3.5842	0.0002	87.9
87	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-3.5992	0.0002	88.6
88	X	Marist	MAAC	-3.6882	0.0001	104.8
89		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-3.7380	0.0001	95.8
90		UAB	CUSA	-3.7461	0.0001	85.8
91		George Mason	CAA	-3.9841	0.0000	95.7
92		Boise St.	WAC	-4.0838	0.0000	97.9
93		Utah St.	WAC	-4.1170	0.0000	85.3
94		Hawaii	WAC	-4.2859	0.0000	91.6
95		Fresno St.	WAC	-4.3958	0.0000	99.9
96		Santa Clara	WCC	-4.4957	0.0000	99.3
97		Tulsa	CUSA	-4.5683	0.0000	94.8
98		Wyoming	MWC	-4.9447	0.0000	99.6
99		Iowa	B10	-5.2149	0.0000	92.4
100		Vermont	AE	-5.2353	0.0000	119.4
101		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-5.3769	0.0000	109.7
102	X	Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-5.4099	0.0000	118.0
103	X	Belmont	ASun	-5.6143	0.0000	130.4
104		Saint Joseph's	A10	-5.7014	0.0000	100.3
105		Mississippi	SEC	-5.7449	0.0000	86.8
106		Kent St.	MAC	-5.7449	0.0000	117.5
107		Auburn	SEC	-5.8033	0.0000	92.0
108	X	Oral Roberts	MCon	-5.9190	0.0000	121.9
109		Baylor	B12	-5.9344	0.0000	92.8
110		Seton Hall	BE	-6.0996	0.0000	91.4
111		Houston	CUSA	-6.2028	0.0000	105.8
112	X	UC Santa Barbara	BW	-6.2414	0.0000	134.4
113		Toledo	MAC	-6.2864	0.0000	125.1
114		College of Charleston	SC	-6.3382	0.0000	124.1
115		Long Beach St.	BW	-6.3481	0.0000	125.8
116		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-6.4210	0.0000	115.6
117		New Mexico	MWC	-6.5692	0.0000	107.0
118		Temple	A10	-6.6836	0.0000	115.7
119	X	Idaho St.	BSky	-6.7353	0.0000	123.9
120	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-6.7908	0.0000	140.4
121		Bucknell	Pat	-6.8162	0.0000	134.4
122		Albany	AE	-6.8350	0.0000	132.8
123		Fordham	A10	-6.8677	0.0000	124.6
124		South Carolina	SEC	-7.1599	0.0000	94.6
125		Central Florida	CUSA	-7.1776	0.0000	137.9
126		Penn St.	B10	-7.3246	0.0000	107.9
127		Charlotte	A10	-7.3608	0.0000	121.0
128		Utah	MWC	-7.3833	0.0000	129.2
129		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-7.4147	0.0000	146.6
130		Cincinnati	BE	-7.4929	0.0000	105.3
131		Evansville	MVC	-7.5350	0.0000	104.0
132		North Carolina St.	ACC	-7.9134	0.0000	106.1
133		Oakland	MCon	-8.0141	0.0000	140.0
134		Siena	MAAC	-8.0894	0.0000	145.8
135		South Alabama	SB	-8.1471	0.0000	143.2
136		Austin Peay	OVC	-8.1749	0.0000	157.4
137	X	Delaware St.	MEAC	-8.2161	0.0000	153.5
138		Middle Tennessee	SB	-8.2306	0.0000	147.8
139		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-8.4002	0.0000	142.9
140		Western Michigan	MAC	-8.6131	0.0000	149.2
141		San Diego	WCC	-8.7616	0.0000	155.2
142		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-8.8019	0.0000	152.2
143		Sacred Heart	NEC	-8.9668	0.0000	161.2
144	X	Jackson St.	SWAC	-8.9980	0.0000	169.1
145		Samford	OVC	-9.0047	0.0000	167.0
146		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-9.0269	0.0000	167.3
147		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-9.0353	0.0000	150.9
148		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-9.1542	0.0000	142.8
149		Rhode Island	A10	-9.1953	0.0000	138.5
150		Utah Valley St.	ind	-9.5213	0.0000	168.1
151		Wake Forest	ACC	-9.5776	0.0000	129.6
152		Miami OH	MAC	-9.5915	0.0000	145.6
153		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-9.7441	0.0000	171.8
154		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-9.7588	0.0000	170.5
155		North Texas	SB	-9.8252	0.0000	173.5
156		Northwestern	B10	-9.8506	0.0000	130.6
157		Marshall	CUSA	-9.8590	0.0000	154.6
158		Iowa St.	B12	-10.0168	0.0000	138.4
159		Miami FL	ACC	-10.2032	0.0000	146.2
160		Rice	CUSA	-10.4185	0.0000	169.7
161		Drake	MVC	-10.4405	0.0000	122.5
162		North Dakota St.	ind	-10.4833	0.0000	184.7
163		St. John's	BE	-10.5376	0.0000	128.4
164		UC Irvine	BW	-10.5464	0.0000	171.5
165		Lipscomb	ASun	-10.5528	0.0000	180.6
166		Yale	Ivy	-10.5989	0.0000	167.0
167		St. Mary's	WCC	-10.6052	0.0000	158.8
168		Loyola MD	MAAC	-10.6352	0.0000	188.9
169	X	Tennessee Tech	OVC	-11.0080	0.0000	184.6
170		Illinois St.	MVC	-11.0943	0.0000	137.8
171		Eastern Washington	BSky	-11.1484	0.0000	186.2
172		Army	Pat	-11.1617	0.0000	172.0
173		Buffalo	MAC	-11.1694	0.0000	172.4
174		Texas Christian	MWC	-11.2657	0.0000	148.4
175		Towson	CAA	-11.3871	0.0000	156.4
176		Weber St.	BSky	-11.4615	0.0000	186.0
177		Princeton	Ivy	-11.4679	0.0000	183.6
178		Minnesota	B10	-11.4894	0.0000	145.2
179		Rider	MAAC	-11.4959	0.0000	188.0
180		Wright St.	Horz	-11.5966	0.0000	178.6
181		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-11.6730	0.0000	183.6
182	X	Boston University	AE	-11.6732	0.0000	188.8
183		South Florida	BE	-11.7135	0.0000	144.4
184		Morehead St.	OVC	-11.7566	0.0000	204.2
185		High Point	BSth	-11.7830	0.0000	191.0
186		Southern Utah	MCon	-11.9708	0.0000	191.2
187		Columbia	Ivy	-12.1904	0.0000	191.5
188		San Francisco	WCC	-12.1924	0.0000	186.5
189		Manhattan	MAAC	-12.2480	0.0000	207.6
190		Oregon St.	P10	-12.3638	0.0000	147.2
191		Navy	Pat	-12.3829	0.0000	188.1
192		Arkansas St.	SB	-12.3864	0.0000	203.0
193		Valparaiso	MCon	-12.7837	0.0000	197.8
194		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-12.7864	0.0000	199.4
195		American	Pat	-12.7923	0.0000	199.0
196		Niagara	MAAC	-12.8460	0.0000	210.6
197		Youngstown St.	Horz	-12.9646	0.0000	192.4
198		NC Greensboro	SC	-13.1186	0.0000	209.7
199		William & Mary	CAA	-13.1192	0.0000	179.9
200		Furman	SC	-13.4581	0.0000	205.8
201		Florida Atlantic	SB	-13.5426	0.0000	205.9
202		Hartford	AE	-13.6195	0.0000	208.9
203		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-13.7321	0.0000	217.1
204		Harvard	Ivy	-13.7483	0.0000	200.5
205		Cornell	Ivy	-13.7604	0.0000	213.7
206		Lehigh	Pat	-13.9523	0.0000	217.9
207		Lamar	Slnd	-13.9881	0.0000	221.6
208		Troy	SB	-13.9943	0.0000	215.1
209		IUPUI	MCon	-14.0340	0.0000	218.7
210		Northern Arizona	BSky	-14.0577	0.0000	225.9
211		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-14.0934	0.0000	224.7
212		Canisius	MAAC	-14.1826	0.0000	216.4
213		Monmouth	NEC	-14.3589	0.0000	217.8
214		Tulane	CUSA	-14.3596	0.0000	203.3
215		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-14.3641	0.0000	203.6
216		Montana	BSky	-14.4153	0.0000	220.1
217		Pacific	BW	-14.4504	0.0000	213.0
218		Portland St.	BSky	-14.4583	0.0000	219.7
219		New Orleans	SB	-14.5099	0.0000	221.5
220		Rutgers	BE	-14.5545	0.0000	168.5
221		Bowling Green	MAC	-14.7026	0.0000	213.5
222		Northeastern	CAA	-14.8757	0.0000	195.6
223		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-15.0755	0.0000	237.2
224		Chattanooga	SC	-15.1364	0.0000	218.9
225		Central Michigan	MAC	-15.1974	0.0000	224.6
226		Detroit	Horz	-15.2157	0.0000	216.2
227		Georgia St.	CAA	-15.2276	0.0000	203.4
228		Tennessee St.	OVC	-15.2669	0.0000	230.8
229		Brown	Ivy	-15.2964	0.0000	236.2
230		La Salle	A10	-15.4034	0.0000	213.4
231		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-15.5363	0.0000	207.0
232		Jacksonville	ASun	-15.5502	0.0000	236.9
233		Central Connecticut	NEC	-15.7289	0.0000	244.5
234		NC Wilmington	CAA	-15.7688	0.0000	213.9
235		Murray St.	OVC	-15.8207	0.0000	241.1
236		Arizona St.	P10	-16.1188	0.0000	188.2
237		Hampton	MEAC	-16.3030	0.0000	244.1
238		Stony Brook	AE	-16.4057	0.0000	243.5
239		MD Baltimore County	AE	-16.4195	0.0000	241.9
240		Texas Southern	SWAC	-16.4770	0.0000	248.9
241		Ball St.	MAC	-16.4949	0.0000	232.3
242		Chicago St.	MCon	-16.5467	0.0000	224.4
243		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-16.6240	0.0000	245.4
244		Western Carolina	SC	-16.7077	0.0000	237.7
245		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-16.7945	0.0000	248.0
246		Binghamton	AE	-16.8401	0.0000	252.3
247		Maine	AE	-16.8809	0.0000	247.7
248		Georgia Southern	SC	-16.9594	0.0000	249.4
249		Florida A&M	MEAC	-17.2119	0.0000	258.6
250		Texas Pan American	ind	-17.2657	0.0000	262.9
251		Campbell	ASun	-17.4277	0.0000	256.5
252		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-17.4458	0.0000	262.6
253		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-17.5217	0.0000	227.5
254		Mercer	ASun	-17.5567	0.0000	269.8
255		Cal Poly	BW	-17.6189	0.0000	263.6
256		Dartmouth	Ivy	-17.6745	0.0000	249.6
257		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-17.7450	0.0000	267.7
258		Duquesne	A10	-17.7676	0.0000	247.8
259		Quinnipiac	NEC	-17.8817	0.0000	272.3
260		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-17.9358	0.0000	266.8
261		Colorado	B12	-18.0426	0.0000	213.2
262		Cleveland St.	Horz	-18.1874	0.0000	254.1
263		Stetson	ASun	-18.1944	0.0000	265.5
264		Pepperdine	WCC	-18.3186	0.0000	250.5
265		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-18.3243	0.0000	277.3
266		Missouri Kansas City	MCon	-18.4378	0.0000	265.3
267		New Hampshire	AE	-18.6371	0.0000	275.0
268		Fairfield	MAAC	-18.6793	0.0000	251.7
269		Howard	MEAC	-18.8454	0.0000	287.6
270		Lafayette	Pat	-18.9138	0.0000	263.8
271		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-18.9904	0.0000	270.5
272		San Jose St.	WAC	-19.1790	0.0000	245.1
273		IUPU Fort Wayne	ind	-19.2048	0.0000	281.8
274		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-19.4663	0.0000	265.7
275		Richmond	A10	-19.5444	0.0000	251.9
276		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-19.5813	0.0000	287.5
277		Centenary	MCon	-19.6118	0.0000	274.7
278		Florida International	SB	-19.7004	0.0000	277.0
279		Radford	BSth	-19.7451	0.0000	281.8
280		Grambling	SWAC	-19.7489	0.0000	294.8
281		Southern	SWAC	-19.8430	0.0000	290.5
282		Liberty	BSth	-19.9657	0.0000	282.0
283		Gardner Webb	ASun	-20.0496	0.0000	279.9
284		Wagner	NEC	-20.0663	0.0000	290.2
285		UC Davis	ind	-20.0819	0.0000	295.7
286		Alabama St.	SWAC	-20.1748	0.0000	294.7
287		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-20.3852	0.0000	292.7
288		Northern Illinois	MAC	-20.3936	0.0000	284.1
289		Long Island	NEC	-20.5323	0.0000	302.6
290		Portland	WCC	-20.5449	0.0000	276.6
291		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-20.5710	0.0000	288.0
292		Coppin St.	MEAC	-20.5763	0.0000	275.5
293		Colgate	Pat	-20.6021	0.0000	285.9
294		McNeese St.	Slnd	-20.6996	0.0000	291.5
295		Longwood	ind	-20.8704	0.0000	289.3
296		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-20.9063	0.0000	293.5
297		NC Asheville	BSth	-20.9725	0.0000	296.0
298		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-21.0214	0.0000	302.2
299		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-21.0567	0.0000	300.0
300		St. Bonaventure	A10	-21.1409	0.0000	288.7
301		The Citadel	SC	-21.1568	0.0000	279.4
302		Savannah St.	ind	-21.3988	0.0000	296.8
303		James Madison	CAA	-21.4185	0.0000	286.2
304		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-21.5129	0.0000	301.0
305		Delaware	CAA	-21.5131	0.0000	280.5
306		Texas St.	Slnd	-21.6506	0.0000	303.4
307		Elon	SC	-21.9045	0.0000	293.3
308		St. Francis NY	NEC	-21.9699	0.0000	303.5
309		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-21.9923	0.0000	302.6
310		Sacramento St.	BSky	-22.0871	0.0000	309.1
311		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-22.1905	0.0000	316.1
312		St. Francis PA	NEC	-22.2019	0.0000	315.0
313		Morgan St.	MEAC	-22.2778	0.0000	318.3
314		Montana St.	BSky	-22.3887	0.0000	315.7
315		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-22.4388	0.0000	317.3
316		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-22.4439	0.0000	326.3
317		Wofford	SC	-22.6542	0.0000	305.8
318		Idaho	WAC	-22.7064	0.0000	280.8
319		UC Riverside	BW	-22.7768	0.0000	318.5
320		South Dakota St.	ind	-22.8019	0.0000	321.1
321		St. Peter's	MAAC	-22.8601	0.0000	315.5
322		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-22.8731	0.0000	318.8
323		East Carolina	CUSA	-22.9032	0.0000	311.7
324		Charleston Southern	BSth	-23.1186	0.0000	321.3
325		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.2516	0.0000	330.8
326		Western Illinois	MCon	-23.2579	0.0000	326.1
327		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-23.2866	0.0000	326.9
328		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-23.3157	0.0000	329.7
329		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-23.3194	0.0000	307.5
330		Winston Salem St.	ind	-23.4298	0.0000	324.2
331		Iona	MAAC	-23.6240	0.0000	320.7
332		Northern Colorado	BSky	-23.8633	0.0000	332.3
333		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-23.9630	0.0000	332.1
334		North Florida	ASun	-24.3194	0.0000	333.9
335		Denver	SB	-24.4240	0.0000	331.6
336		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-25.0937	0.0000	330.2

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, and to Jay Colemen for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com