Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive

Through games of Feb 17, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	Florida	SEC	8.5999	1.0000	6.4
2	X	UCLA	P10	8.4702	1.0000	1.2
3	X	North Carolina	ACC	8.3357	1.0000	2.0
4	X	Ohio St.	B10	8.1014	1.0000	4.0
5		Wisconsin	B10	7.4590	1.0000	5.4
6		Pittsburgh	BE	7.0089	1.0000	4.1
7	X	Kansas	B12	6.3699	1.0000	12.7
8		Southern Illinois	MVC	6.3328	1.0000	11.1
9		Texas A&M	B12	5.9757	1.0000	11.1
10		Kentucky	SEC	5.9406	1.0000	7.8
11	X	Georgetown	BE	5.7511	1.0000	12.5
12	X	Memphis	CUSA	5.7192	1.0000	10.1
13	X	Nevada	WAC	5.6509	1.0000	21.0
14		Air Force	MWC	4.7058	1.0000	17.8
15		Washington St.	P10	4.6605	1.0000	26.8
16		Virginia Tech	ACC	4.6109	1.0000	22.0
17		Duke	ACC	4.4458	1.0000	7.6
18	X	Butler	Horz	4.4444	1.0000	30.2
19		Arizona	P10	4.3476	1.0000	11.7
20	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	4.3118	1.0000	18.2
21		Clemson	ACC	3.9883	1.0000	25.8
22		Boston College	ACC	3.8530	0.9999	23.0
23		Brigham Young	MWC	3.2500	0.9994	27.7
24		Tennessee	SEC	3.1630	0.9992	19.0
25		Villanova	BE	2.9317	0.9983	17.5
26		Creighton	MVC	2.8459	0.9978	37.0
27		Georgia Tech	ACC	2.7906	0.9974	35.9
28		Maryland	ACC	2.6645	0.9961	19.3
29		Vanderbilt	SEC	2.6573	0.9961	35.7
30		Marquette	BE	2.6115	0.9955	21.2
31		Virginia	ACC	2.4605	0.9931	37.1
32	X	Xavier	A10	2.4165	0.9922	42.0
33		Michigan St.	B10	2.4159	0.9922	23.2
34		Southern California	P10	2.3717	0.9911	39.9
35		Louisville	BE	2.1226	0.9831	38.4
36		Alabama	SEC	1.9468	0.9742	29.3
37		Purdue	B10	1.9337	0.9734	40.0
38		Stanford	P10	1.7598	0.9608	40.3
39		Indiana	B10	1.7273	0.9579	34.8
40		Notre Dame	BE	1.5796	0.9429	54.2
41		Texas	B12	1.5734	0.9422	48.7
42		Old Dominion	CAA	1.3737	0.9152	45.7
43		Oregon	P10	1.2826	0.9002	35.1
44		Oklahoma St.	B12	0.9364	0.8255	42.9
45		Georgia	SEC	0.8892	0.8130	47.1
46		Illinois	B10	0.8822	0.8112	34.7
47		Appalachian St.	SC	0.6892	0.7546	70.7
48	X	Missouri St.	MVC	0.5642	0.7137	39.9
49		West Virginia	BE	0.0816	0.5325	52.2
50	X	Winthrop	BSth	-0.0405	0.4838	77.7
51		Drexel	CAA	-0.1316	0.4476	57.4
52	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-0.1506	0.4401	56.8
53		Syracuse	BE	-0.2368	0.4064	46.2
54		Mississippi St.	SEC	-0.3017	0.3814	54.8
55		Bradley	MVC	-0.4542	0.3248	39.1
56		Texas Tech	B12	-0.5109	0.3047	43.6
57		Arkansas	SEC	-0.5395	0.2948	42.7
58		Providence	BE	-0.6210	0.2673	53.1
59		Kansas St.	B12	-0.7107	0.2386	61.2
60		Florida St.	ACC	-0.7315	0.2322	43.4
61	X	Davidson	SC	-0.8093	0.2092	68.3
62		Michigan	B10	-0.9305	0.1761	53.0
63		New Mexico St.	WAC	-0.9320	0.1757	74.3
64		San Diego St.	MWC	-1.0041	0.1577	62.8
65		Massachusetts	A10	-1.0292	0.1517	71.8
66		Santa Clara	WCC	-1.2070	0.1137	74.5
67	X	Gonzaga	WCC	-1.3100	0.0951	70.2
68	X	Akron	MAC	-1.3379	0.0905	78.8
69		DePaul	BE	-1.4906	0.0680	58.8
70		Mississippi	SEC	-1.5645	0.0589	62.4
71		St. Louis	A10	-1.7841	0.0372	80.5
72		Hofstra	CAA	-1.7919	0.0366	84.0
73		Utah St.	WAC	-1.8058	0.0355	64.6
74		Missouri	B12	-2.2508	0.0122	63.3
75		Nebraska	B12	-2.3774	0.0087	75.8
76		Vermont	AE	-2.4406	0.0073	92.7
77		Oklahoma	B12	-2.5026	0.0062	65.2
78		Dayton	A10	-2.6722	0.0038	75.9
79	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-2.8028	0.0025	80.6
80		Wright St.	Horz	-2.8318	0.0023	93.6
81		Washington	P10	-2.8647	0.0021	70.9
82	X	Pennsylvania	Ivy	-3.0909	0.0010	93.8
83		California	P10	-3.1928	0.0007	66.5
84		Wichita St.	MVC	-3.2101	0.0007	79.8
85	X	Western Kentucky	SB	-3.2558	0.0006	94.2
86		Houston	CUSA	-3.4667	0.0003	84.1
87		Saint Joseph's	A10	-3.6406	0.0001	85.3
88		Iowa	B10	-3.6454	0.0001	82.5
89		Hawaii	WAC	-3.8801	0.0001	91.0
90		South Alabama	SB	-4.0041	0.0000	105.1
91		Fresno St.	WAC	-4.0689	0.0000	90.8
92	X	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-4.1109	0.0000	99.4
93		Bucknell	Pat	-4.1254	0.0000	107.0
94		Connecticut	BE	-4.2729	0.0000	70.6
95		Kent St.	MAC	-4.3170	0.0000	100.9
96		Boise St.	WAC	-4.4123	0.0000	103.6
97	X	Long Beach St.	BW	-4.5022	0.0000	106.4
98		Rhode Island	A10	-4.6376	0.0000	101.2
99	X	Oral Roberts	MCon	-4.7205	0.0000	108.5
100		Northern Iowa	MVC	-4.8113	0.0000	93.0
101		Louisiana St.	SEC	-4.9652	0.0000	74.2
102		South Carolina	SEC	-5.0960	0.0000	83.5
103	X	Marist	MAAC	-5.2159	0.0000	120.2
104		George Washington	A10	-5.2939	0.0000	97.7
105		Austin Peay	OVC	-5.3584	0.0000	127.2
106		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-5.3630	0.0000	117.5
107		Central Florida	CUSA	-5.4475	0.0000	119.4
108		Albany	AE	-5.4952	0.0000	117.9
109		Ohio	MAC	-5.5146	0.0000	108.3
110		Toledo	MAC	-5.7990	0.0000	116.5
111		Tulsa	CUSA	-5.8286	0.0000	106.1
112		Wyoming	MWC	-5.8771	0.0000	113.3
113		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-5.9858	0.0000	100.7
114		Colorado St.	MWC	-6.0984	0.0000	113.3
115		Auburn	SEC	-6.1694	0.0000	93.2
116		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-6.4425	0.0000	140.7
117		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-6.7146	0.0000	126.6
118		New Mexico	MWC	-6.8023	0.0000	111.1
119		Wake Forest	ACC	-6.8701	0.0000	108.7
120	X	Belmont	ASun	-6.8938	0.0000	144.6
121		College of Charleston	SC	-6.9780	0.0000	125.9
122		North Carolina St.	ACC	-7.0080	0.0000	99.1
123		St. John's	BE	-7.0100	0.0000	106.0
124		Fordham	A10	-7.0348	0.0000	126.1
125		Utah	MWC	-7.1678	0.0000	119.9
126		Utah Valley St.	ind	-7.5341	0.0000	146.1
127		UAB	CUSA	-7.5758	0.0000	122.5
128		Miami OH	MAC	-7.6235	0.0000	123.6
129		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-7.6703	0.0000	148.8
130		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-7.8178	0.0000	146.9
131		Yale	Ivy	-7.8363	0.0000	143.4
132	X	Tennessee Tech	OVC	-8.0223	0.0000	149.6
133	X	Central Connecticut	NEC	-8.0888	0.0000	159.9
134		Siena	MAAC	-8.2100	0.0000	146.9
135		Niagara	MAAC	-8.2129	0.0000	160.1
136		Oakland	MCon	-8.2599	0.0000	143.6
137		Drake	MVC	-8.2793	0.0000	112.5
138		North Texas	SB	-8.4177	0.0000	159.0
139		Seton Hall	BE	-8.4496	0.0000	117.9
140		Western Michigan	MAC	-8.4987	0.0000	146.2
141		Indiana St.	MVC	-8.5548	0.0000	126.0
142	X	Delaware St.	MEAC	-8.6161	0.0000	157.4
143		Temple	A10	-8.9347	0.0000	140.2
144		Weber St.	BSky	-9.0697	0.0000	158.9
145		Iowa St.	B12	-9.1123	0.0000	124.9
146		Evansville	MVC	-9.1397	0.0000	112.8
147		George Mason	CAA	-9.1712	0.0000	135.4
148		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-9.1967	0.0000	168.4
149		Cincinnati	BE	-9.3845	0.0000	130.8
150		Rice	CUSA	-9.6617	0.0000	156.7
151		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-9.7473	0.0000	150.8
152		Cornell	Ivy	-9.7657	0.0000	168.1
153		Illinois St.	MVC	-9.7841	0.0000	127.1
154		Towson	CAA	-9.9626	0.0000	146.8
155		Samford	OVC	-10.0863	0.0000	175.4
156		Charlotte	A10	-10.1668	0.0000	135.4
157		North Dakota St.	ind	-10.1994	0.0000	182.2
158		Loyola MD	MAAC	-10.4321	0.0000	186.8
159		Robert Morris	NEC	-10.4423	0.0000	177.4
160		Valparaiso	MCon	-10.4637	0.0000	174.2
161		High Point	BSth	-10.5353	0.0000	180.8
162		Marshall	CUSA	-10.5949	0.0000	165.5
163		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-10.6061	0.0000	162.7
164		Lipscomb	ASun	-10.6490	0.0000	176.4
165		Northwestern	B10	-10.7613	0.0000	131.8
166		Baylor	B12	-10.8002	0.0000	128.7
167	X	Idaho St.	BSky	-10.8449	0.0000	166.8
168		San Francisco	WCC	-10.8857	0.0000	162.0
169		Miami FL	ACC	-10.9083	0.0000	150.1
170		Minnesota	B10	-11.1693	0.0000	140.9
171		Jacksonville	ASun	-11.2028	0.0000	187.1
172		William & Mary	CAA	-11.2256	0.0000	161.6
173		St. Mary's	WCC	-11.2414	0.0000	165.2
174		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-11.2662	0.0000	162.2
175		Florida Atlantic	SB	-11.5021	0.0000	181.7
176		Duquesne	A10	-11.5396	0.0000	190.9
177		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-11.5457	0.0000	171.1
178		Youngstown St.	Horz	-11.5538	0.0000	168.1
179		Middle Tennessee	SB	-11.5948	0.0000	178.6
180		Cal Poly	BW	-11.6030	0.0000	192.4
181		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-11.6605	0.0000	186.8
182		Northern Arizona	BSky	-11.7591	0.0000	201.7
183		Penn St.	B10	-11.9479	0.0000	142.5
184		Pacific	BW	-11.9657	0.0000	179.8
185		Sacred Heart	NEC	-11.9665	0.0000	198.0
186		Tulane	CUSA	-12.0675	0.0000	188.7
187		Murray St.	OVC	-12.1063	0.0000	203.7
188		Furman	SC	-12.1731	0.0000	194.0
189		UC Irvine	BW	-12.2627	0.0000	187.0
190		Southern Utah	MCon	-12.3375	0.0000	195.4
191		Rider	MAAC	-12.3568	0.0000	200.5
192	X	Jackson St.	SWAC	-12.3820	0.0000	201.2
193		NC Greensboro	SC	-12.5757	0.0000	206.7
194		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-12.6405	0.0000	177.2
195		San Diego	WCC	-12.7757	0.0000	189.8
196		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-12.7878	0.0000	205.4
197		Fairfield	MAAC	-12.9420	0.0000	192.9
198		South Florida	BE	-13.1110	0.0000	157.9
199	X	Boston University	AE	-13.1193	0.0000	196.5
200		Rutgers	BE	-13.2726	0.0000	165.1
201		Montana	BSky	-13.5221	0.0000	215.9
202		Arkansas St.	SB	-13.5558	0.0000	215.2
203		Manhattan	MAAC	-13.6419	0.0000	226.6
204		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-13.6914	0.0000	210.9
205		Texas Christian	MWC	-13.7244	0.0000	179.1
206		Hampton	MEAC	-13.7246	0.0000	216.2
207		Lehigh	Pat	-13.7567	0.0000	211.4
208		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-13.9195	0.0000	216.7
209		American	Pat	-14.0572	0.0000	207.8
210		Columbia	Ivy	-14.1621	0.0000	214.0
211		Navy	Pat	-14.2163	0.0000	208.4
212		IUPUI	MCon	-14.2236	0.0000	215.6
213		Portland St.	BSky	-14.2930	0.0000	217.5
214		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-14.3108	0.0000	199.3
215		Harvard	Ivy	-14.4255	0.0000	207.9
216		New Orleans	SB	-14.4317	0.0000	211.8
217		Detroit	Horz	-14.4796	0.0000	195.3
218		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-14.7161	0.0000	231.5
219		Northeastern	CAA	-14.7182	0.0000	196.2
220		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-14.7780	0.0000	233.9
221		Chattanooga	SC	-14.8232	0.0000	212.7
222		Eastern Washington	BSky	-14.9924	0.0000	223.4
223		Florida A&M	MEAC	-15.0782	0.0000	237.0
224		Quinnipiac	NEC	-15.1034	0.0000	242.2
225		Lamar	Slnd	-15.1950	0.0000	235.0
226		Princeton	Ivy	-15.2800	0.0000	224.3
227		Oregon St.	P10	-15.5418	0.0000	165.5
228		Hartford	AE	-15.5966	0.0000	234.0
229		Buffalo	MAC	-15.6542	0.0000	221.1
230		Monmouth	NEC	-15.6763	0.0000	229.2
231		Brown	Ivy	-15.7149	0.0000	240.1
232		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-15.7984	0.0000	238.2
233		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-15.9459	0.0000	234.4
234		Ball St.	MAC	-16.0525	0.0000	225.6
235		Canisius	MAAC	-16.1283	0.0000	240.4
236		Colorado	B12	-16.2489	0.0000	207.6
237		Central Michigan	MAC	-16.2906	0.0000	241.1
238		Troy	SB	-16.6125	0.0000	236.3
239		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-16.6924	0.0000	237.1
240		Texas Southern	SWAC	-16.7354	0.0000	249.9
241		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-16.7370	0.0000	248.0
242		Bowling Green	MAC	-16.8190	0.0000	237.6
243		MD Baltimore County	AE	-16.9226	0.0000	243.0
244		Maine	AE	-17.0135	0.0000	256.8
245		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-17.0154	0.0000	228.1
246		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-17.0731	0.0000	253.3
247		Army	Pat	-17.3329	0.0000	238.0
248		IUPU Fort Wayne	ind	-17.5933	0.0000	262.3
249		Mercer	ASun	-17.7666	0.0000	267.4
250		McNeese St.	Slnd	-17.9304	0.0000	262.7
251		Tennessee St.	OVC	-17.9736	0.0000	259.8
252		San Jose St.	WAC	-17.9805	0.0000	228.1
253		Binghamton	AE	-17.9868	0.0000	258.9
254		Dartmouth	Ivy	-18.0770	0.0000	254.3
255		Missouri Kansas City	MCon	-18.0956	0.0000	263.0
256		Gardner Webb	ASun	-18.1934	0.0000	257.3
257		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-18.3003	0.0000	276.0
258		New Hampshire	AE	-18.3075	0.0000	267.8
259		Georgia St.	CAA	-18.4003	0.0000	225.9
260		Florida International	SB	-18.5391	0.0000	265.0
261		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-18.6143	0.0000	274.8
262		Montana St.	BSky	-18.6205	0.0000	279.2
263		Arizona St.	P10	-18.7831	0.0000	208.0
264		Coppin St.	MEAC	-18.7872	0.0000	260.5
265		Colgate	Pat	-18.8650	0.0000	262.3
266		La Salle	A10	-18.8650	0.0000	243.5
267		Chicago St.	MCon	-18.8829	0.0000	246.9
268		Western Carolina	SC	-18.8908	0.0000	252.5
269		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-18.9611	0.0000	279.6
270		Campbell	ASun	-19.1052	0.0000	275.7
271		Texas Pan American	ind	-19.1641	0.0000	284.9
272		Savannah St.	ind	-19.2714	0.0000	271.6
273		Grambling	SWAC	-19.3035	0.0000	290.3
274		Portland	WCC	-19.4642	0.0000	258.9
275		Georgia Southern	SC	-19.5791	0.0000	268.8
276		Wagner	NEC	-19.5977	0.0000	289.6
277		Morgan St.	MEAC	-19.6321	0.0000	300.1
278		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-19.6742	0.0000	279.4
279		Liberty	BSth	-19.7453	0.0000	285.8
280		Stony Brook	AE	-19.7530	0.0000	273.4
281		Morehead St.	OVC	-19.7822	0.0000	291.5
282		Stetson	ASun	-19.8172	0.0000	282.0
283		Centenary	MCon	-20.0357	0.0000	275.4
284		Pepperdine	WCC	-20.0788	0.0000	265.6
285		Cleveland St.	Horz	-20.0788	0.0000	266.3
286		NC Wilmington	CAA	-20.3312	0.0000	257.3
287		Northern Illinois	MAC	-20.4128	0.0000	284.1
288		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-20.4624	0.0000	294.1
289		Alabama St.	SWAC	-20.5047	0.0000	294.8
290		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-20.5382	0.0000	295.6
291		James Madison	CAA	-20.7926	0.0000	285.5
292		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-20.8230	0.0000	305.3
293		Longwood	ind	-21.0676	0.0000	288.5
294		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-21.1026	0.0000	306.1
295		Richmond	A10	-21.1687	0.0000	268.9
296		UC Davis	ind	-21.1820	0.0000	308.8
297		St. Bonaventure	A10	-21.2512	0.0000	281.7
298		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-21.3034	0.0000	299.9
299		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-21.4548	0.0000	311.7
300		Long Island	NEC	-21.4842	0.0000	312.7
301		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-21.6169	0.0000	321.7
302		Sacramento St.	BSky	-21.6402	0.0000	301.6
303		Southern	SWAC	-21.6496	0.0000	304.1
304		St. Francis NY	NEC	-21.6803	0.0000	299.4
305		NC Asheville	BSth	-21.6988	0.0000	297.5
306		Delaware	CAA	-21.7059	0.0000	288.1
307		Howard	MEAC	-21.7899	0.0000	317.8
308		Wofford	SC	-21.8888	0.0000	294.0
309		Lafayette	Pat	-21.9752	0.0000	291.0
310		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-22.0270	0.0000	309.4
311		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-22.4315	0.0000	298.5
312		Radford	BSth	-22.4786	0.0000	314.1
313		UC Riverside	BW	-22.5221	0.0000	313.9
314		Elon	SC	-22.5255	0.0000	295.4
315		Texas St.	Slnd	-22.5269	0.0000	315.2
316		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-22.5294	0.0000	314.2
317		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-22.6283	0.0000	323.8
318		Winston Salem St.	ind	-22.7495	0.0000	316.3
319		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-22.9273	0.0000	330.6
320		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-23.1122	0.0000	322.3
321		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-23.3458	0.0000	329.0
322		South Dakota St.	ind	-23.4532	0.0000	326.1
323		East Carolina	CUSA	-23.5727	0.0000	316.0
324		The Citadel	SC	-23.7295	0.0000	300.9
325		Western Illinois	MCon	-23.7445	0.0000	327.4
326		Idaho	WAC	-23.7755	0.0000	297.6
327		St. Peter's	MAAC	-23.7951	0.0000	326.9
328		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-23.8499	0.0000	318.6
329		Iona	MAAC	-23.9936	0.0000	322.2
330		Charleston Southern	BSth	-24.0031	0.0000	326.7
331		St. Francis PA	NEC	-24.1767	0.0000	328.1
332		Northern Colorado	BSky	-24.2144	0.0000	334.8
333		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-24.2834	0.0000	330.6
334		Denver	SB	-24.3870	0.0000	331.4
335		North Florida	ASun	-24.7819	0.0000	334.7
336		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-26.1159	0.0000	335.3

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, and to Jay Colemen for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com