Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Feb 16, 2008.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	Duke	ACC	9.9197	1.0000	2.4
2	X	Tennessee	SEC	9.4435	1.0000	1.7
3		North Carolina	ACC	9.2973	1.0000	3.2
4	X	Memphis	CUSA	9.0662	1.0000	2.7
5	X	Kansas	B12	8.0351	1.0000	5.7
6	X	UCLA	P10	7.5861	1.0000	6.7
7		Texas	B12	6.8491	1.0000	6.7
8	X	Xavier	A10	6.4681	1.0000	8.9
9		Indiana	B10	6.2277	1.0000	15.9
10	X	Drake	MVC	5.8197	1.0000	11.5
11		Connecticut	BE	5.5601	1.0000	11.0
12		Georgetown	BE	5.3614	1.0000	13.2
13		Washington St.	P10	5.3015	1.0000	19.6
14		Stanford	P10	5.0431	1.0000	20.0
15	X	Butler	Horz	5.0358	1.0000	20.9
16		Louisville	BE	4.9222	1.0000	11.0
17		Marquette	BE	4.6824	1.0000	17.7
18		Clemson	ACC	4.5611	1.0000	21.6
19		Michigan St.	B10	4.5362	1.0000	19.2
20	X	Wisconsin	B10	4.3437	1.0000	12.9
21		Arizona	P10	4.1120	1.0000	18.6
22		Vanderbilt	SEC	4.0492	1.0000	14.9
23		Notre Dame	BE	3.9748	1.0000	29.2
24		St. Mary's	WCC	3.7674	0.9999	29.9
25		Pittsburgh	BE	3.2781	0.9995	24.7
26		Texas A&M	B12	3.2183	0.9994	26.1
27		Southern California	P10	3.2098	0.9993	35.3
28		Kansas St.	B12	2.9672	0.9985	22.8
29	X	Gonzaga	WCC	2.9660	0.9985	32.5
30		Purdue	B10	2.8663	0.9979	39.2
31		Arkansas	SEC	2.7109	0.9966	30.0
32		Oklahoma	B12	2.4837	0.9935	31.3
33	X	West Virginia	BE	2.4618	0.9931	31.6
34		Ohio St.	B10	2.4120	0.9921	32.2
35		Brigham Young	MWC	2.3129	0.9896	36.2
36		Rhode Island	A10	1.9997	0.9772	34.6
37	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	1.9874	0.9766	35.0
38		Kent St.	MAC	1.4641	0.9284	50.9
39		Mississippi St.	SEC	1.4406	0.9251	35.9
40		Dayton	A10	1.2887	0.9013	33.5
41		Maryland	ACC	1.2426	0.8930	38.3
42	X	Davidson	SC	1.1659	0.8782	53.2
43	X	South Alabama	SB	0.9756	0.8354	48.6
44		Illinois St.	MVC	0.7191	0.7640	51.3
45		Baylor	B12	0.5403	0.7055	41.4
46		Miami FL	ACC	0.5345	0.7035	41.2
47		Saint Joseph's	A10	0.3943	0.6533	46.5
48		Houston	CUSA	0.3416	0.6337	47.3
49		Western Kentucky	SB	0.1712	0.5680	52.6
50		Syracuse	BE	0.1420	0.5565	36.3
51		Florida	SEC	0.0769	0.5306	49.2
52		Massachusetts	A10	0.0691	0.5275	51.0
53		Mississippi	SEC	-0.0302	0.4880	47.0
54		Southern Illinois	MVC	-0.0941	0.4625	54.6
55	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-0.3440	0.3654	62.6
56		Oral Roberts	Sum	-0.3736	0.3544	65.5
57		Oregon	P10	-0.5224	0.3007	53.8
58		New Mexico	MWC	-0.6126	0.2701	56.0
59		George Mason	CAA	-0.6985	0.2424	70.2
60		UAB	CUSA	-0.7474	0.2274	60.7
61	X	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-0.8204	0.2060	67.2
62		California	P10	-1.0718	0.1419	55.3
63		Wright St.	Horz	-1.1928	0.1165	69.1
64		Kentucky	SEC	-1.2292	0.1095	57.4
65		North Carolina St.	ACC	-1.4566	0.0726	67.2
66	X	IUPUI	Sum	-1.6579	0.0487	88.3
67		Texas Tech	B12	-1.6843	0.0461	57.5
68		Creighton	MVC	-1.8069	0.0354	66.0
69		Arizona St.	P10	-1.8472	0.0324	68.3
70		Boise St.	WAC	-1.9344	0.0265	89.7
71		Ohio	MAC	-2.3454	0.0095	77.8
72		Missouri	B12	-2.5119	0.0060	66.4
73		Georgia Tech	ACC	-2.5688	0.0051	76.2
74		Cincinnati	BE	-2.7290	0.0032	81.4
75		Utah	MWC	-2.8244	0.0024	71.3
76		Charlotte	A10	-2.8537	0.0022	82.1
77		Duquesne	A10	-2.8735	0.0020	79.7
78		Boston College	ACC	-2.9334	0.0017	70.9
79		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-3.0108	0.0013	91.5
80		Temple	A10	-3.0759	0.0010	74.4
81	X	Siena	MAAC	-3.2381	0.0006	87.8
82		Akron	MAC	-3.2439	0.0006	91.9
83		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-3.3132	0.0005	97.7
84		Wake Forest	ACC	-3.3321	0.0004	82.9
85	X	Miami OH	MAC	-3.3808	0.0004	78.8
86		Utah St.	WAC	-3.4048	0.0003	98.6
87	X	Cornell	Ivy	-3.4830	0.0002	100.8
88		Florida St.	ACC	-3.5234	0.0002	73.1
89		Virginia Tech	ACC	-3.6379	0.0001	79.6
90		Villanova	BE	-3.7643	0.0001	78.5
91		Cleveland St.	Horz	-4.0679	0.0000	94.0
92		Nevada	WAC	-4.0701	0.0000	88.1
93		Seton Hall	BE	-4.1454	0.0000	79.7
94	X	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-4.2636	0.0000	100.7
95		San Diego St.	MWC	-4.5015	0.0000	84.3
96		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-4.5201	0.0000	105.9
97	X	Belmont	ASun	-4.5890	0.0000	121.4
98		Georgia Southern	SC	-4.7697	0.0000	103.3
99		Bradley	MVC	-4.7755	0.0000	98.9
100		Providence	BE	-5.1616	0.0000	83.8
101	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-5.1666	0.0000	125.5
102		Wagner	NEC	-5.3032	0.0000	127.3
103	X	Winthrop	BSth	-5.4064	0.0000	118.0
104		Oklahoma St.	B12	-5.4169	0.0000	91.6
105		South Carolina	SEC	-5.4532	0.0000	92.6
106	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-5.6542	0.0000	117.7
107		Georgia	SEC	-5.7095	0.0000	99.1
108		Old Dominion	CAA	-5.8750	0.0000	122.3
109		Richmond	A10	-5.9351	0.0000	122.7
110		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-6.0067	0.0000	98.0
111		Minnesota	B10	-6.0737	0.0000	100.7
112		Nebraska	B12	-6.0756	0.0000	108.4
113	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-6.0870	0.0000	133.8
114		Marshall	CUSA	-6.1645	0.0000	109.8
115		American	Pat	-6.2029	0.0000	131.9
116		Rider	MAAC	-6.2030	0.0000	131.6
117		Washington	P10	-6.2356	0.0000	95.6
118	X	MD Baltimore County	AE	-6.3369	0.0000	131.0
119		Pacific	BW	-6.3733	0.0000	134.5
120		Valparaiso	Horz	-6.5080	0.0000	123.0
121		Illinois	B10	-6.5146	0.0000	99.8
122		Niagara	MAAC	-6.5378	0.0000	129.9
123		Northern Iowa	MVC	-6.6268	0.0000	123.6
124		St. Louis	A10	-6.7002	0.0000	107.2
125	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-6.7180	0.0000	123.3
126	X	Portland St.	BSky	-6.9555	0.0000	148.7
127		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-6.9719	0.0000	131.2
128		Alabama	SEC	-7.0355	0.0000	94.7
129		Central Florida	CUSA	-7.0422	0.0000	118.1
130		NC Asheville	BSth	-7.0487	0.0000	141.5
131		Middle Tennessee	SB	-7.2680	0.0000	127.5
132		Chattanooga	SC	-7.2934	0.0000	123.1
133		NC Wilmington	CAA	-7.3800	0.0000	142.9
134		San Diego	WCC	-7.4685	0.0000	116.8
135		Appalachian St.	SC	-7.6798	0.0000	145.5
136		Indiana St.	MVC	-7.6825	0.0000	130.9
137		Iowa St.	B12	-7.7121	0.0000	119.1
138		North Texas	SB	-7.8293	0.0000	148.5
139		Western Michigan	MAC	-7.9397	0.0000	155.6
140		Hampton	MEAC	-7.9760	0.0000	150.8
141		Lamar	Slnd	-8.0367	0.0000	147.5
142		Brown	Ivy	-8.0694	0.0000	137.3
143		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-8.3669	0.0000	139.5
144		Marist	MAAC	-8.4436	0.0000	135.8
145		Penn St.	B10	-8.6367	0.0000	131.8
146		Tulsa	CUSA	-8.6540	0.0000	139.9
147		Northern Arizona	BSky	-8.6901	0.0000	160.7
148	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-8.8741	0.0000	162.7
149		Tulane	CUSA	-9.1486	0.0000	139.2
150		Sacred Heart	NEC	-9.2187	0.0000	172.4
151		Virginia	ACC	-9.2406	0.0000	116.4
152		Missouri St.	MVC	-9.3546	0.0000	128.1
153		Loyola MD	MAAC	-9.4209	0.0000	170.6
154		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-9.5680	0.0000	160.0
155		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-9.6736	0.0000	153.6
156		NC Greensboro	SC	-9.6941	0.0000	159.4
157		St. John's	BE	-9.7036	0.0000	125.7
158		Lafayette	Pat	-9.8566	0.0000	163.4
159		Auburn	SEC	-10.0667	0.0000	136.3
160		New Orleans	SB	-10.0859	0.0000	161.8
161		DePaul	BE	-10.2145	0.0000	138.8
162		Colorado	B12	-10.2840	0.0000	146.9
163		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-10.3508	0.0000	164.1
164		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-10.5141	0.0000	155.4
165		William & Mary	CAA	-10.5332	0.0000	172.4
166		UC Irvine	BW	-10.5377	0.0000	166.9
167		Murray St.	OVC	-10.6280	0.0000	181.5
168		South Florida	BE	-10.7477	0.0000	146.5
169		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-10.8805	0.0000	168.8
170		Fordham	A10	-10.8819	0.0000	154.6
171		Oakland	Sum	-10.9619	0.0000	179.1
172		Yale	Ivy	-11.0938	0.0000	179.5
173		Quinnipiac	NEC	-11.1169	0.0000	192.7
174		Iowa	B10	-11.1216	0.0000	159.9
175		Montana St.	BSky	-11.4931	0.0000	183.7
176		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-11.5576	0.0000	190.1
177		Fairfield	MAAC	-11.6284	0.0000	186.9
178		Santa Clara	WCC	-11.7111	0.0000	173.8
179		Air Force	MWC	-11.9310	0.0000	164.9
180		Albany	AE	-11.9946	0.0000	198.4
181		Wofford	SC	-12.0090	0.0000	185.4
182		Delaware	CAA	-12.0135	0.0000	185.5
183		Jacksonville	ASun	-12.0146	0.0000	197.7
184		Northeastern	CAA	-12.3752	0.0000	178.8
185		Michigan	B10	-12.3845	0.0000	161.8
186		Columbia	Ivy	-12.4149	0.0000	198.8
187	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-12.6487	0.0000	220.6
188		Long Island	NEC	-12.7201	0.0000	196.6
189		Toledo	MAC	-12.8057	0.0000	188.8
190		Hartford	AE	-12.9967	0.0000	208.1
191		Bucknell	Pat	-13.0411	0.0000	202.6
192		Central Connecticut	NEC	-13.0699	0.0000	210.1
193		Colgate	Pat	-13.0778	0.0000	202.8
194		Central Michigan	MAC	-13.1159	0.0000	197.9
195		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-13.1598	0.0000	201.6
196		Texas Christian	MWC	-13.2500	0.0000	177.9
197		College of Charleston	SC	-13.3151	0.0000	190.2
198		Wichita St.	MVC	-13.3349	0.0000	173.1
199		Hawaii	WAC	-13.4839	0.0000	201.5
200		San Jose St.	WAC	-13.6409	0.0000	203.1
201		James Madison	CAA	-13.6687	0.0000	201.5
202		George Washington	A10	-13.7617	0.0000	183.3
203		Bowling Green	MAC	-13.8559	0.0000	202.2
204		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-13.8874	0.0000	214.8
205		Gardner Webb	ASun	-14.0290	0.0000	223.6
206		Fresno St.	WAC	-14.0442	0.0000	189.1
207		Vermont	AE	-14.0934	0.0000	223.8
208		Montana	BSky	-14.1490	0.0000	219.4
209		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-14.1679	0.0000	217.5
210		Louisiana St.	SEC	-14.2838	0.0000	173.0
211		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-14.3413	0.0000	227.0
212		Weber St.	BSky	-14.3700	0.0000	220.7
213		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-14.5218	0.0000	219.3
214		Iona	MAAC	-14.5641	0.0000	221.0
215		Lehigh	Pat	-14.5970	0.0000	224.9
216		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-14.7248	0.0000	219.0
217		Rutgers	BE	-14.7390	0.0000	189.4
218		Denver	SB	-14.7781	0.0000	222.1
219		Liberty	BSth	-14.7835	0.0000	226.0
220		Wyoming	MWC	-14.8061	0.0000	190.4
221		Delaware St.	MEAC	-14.8610	0.0000	223.5
222		Navy	Pat	-15.0026	0.0000	235.9
223		Morehead St.	OVC	-15.2885	0.0000	236.6
224		Lipscomb	ASun	-15.3876	0.0000	240.4
225		Army	Pat	-15.5152	0.0000	236.9
226		Drexel	CAA	-15.5593	0.0000	209.0
227		North Dakota St.	Sum	-15.6251	0.0000	225.9
228		High Point	BSth	-15.7285	0.0000	235.0
229		Cal Poly	BW	-15.7569	0.0000	221.5
230		East Carolina	CUSA	-15.8071	0.0000	231.2
231		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-15.8340	0.0000	243.1
232		Towson	CAA	-15.9468	0.0000	231.2
233		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-15.9554	0.0000	239.9
234		Binghamton	AE	-16.0092	0.0000	250.3
235		Chicago St.	ind	-16.0171	0.0000	234.3
236		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-16.0566	0.0000	267.3
237		La Salle	A10	-16.0647	0.0000	210.3
238		Pepperdine	WCC	-16.1349	0.0000	214.5
239		Florida Atlantic	SB	-16.1966	0.0000	221.2
240		Youngstown St.	Horz	-16.3830	0.0000	218.6
241		Northwestern	B10	-16.5659	0.0000	206.2
242		Hofstra	CAA	-16.6967	0.0000	240.7
243		Evansville	MVC	-16.7333	0.0000	223.2
244		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-16.7585	0.0000	234.4
245		Elon	SC	-16.7912	0.0000	237.9
246		Boston University	AE	-17.2484	0.0000	257.8
247		Troy	SB	-17.4855	0.0000	228.8
248		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-17.4947	0.0000	244.2
249		Utah Valley St.	ind	-17.5782	0.0000	267.6
250		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-17.5834	0.0000	248.6
251		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-17.6072	0.0000	265.2
252		Stetson	ASun	-17.6195	0.0000	256.6
253		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-17.6692	0.0000	234.3
254		Texas St.	Slnd	-17.9028	0.0000	262.8
255		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-17.9058	0.0000	261.0
256		Western Illinois	Sum	-17.9100	0.0000	253.1
257		Tennessee St.	OVC	-18.1322	0.0000	271.6
258		Florida International	SB	-18.2515	0.0000	236.2
259		McNeese St.	Slnd	-18.5407	0.0000	266.1
260		Samford	OVC	-18.6241	0.0000	280.3
261		Southern Utah	Sum	-18.7808	0.0000	251.7
262		Detroit	Horz	-18.9076	0.0000	258.6
263		Savannah St.	ind	-18.9372	0.0000	283.6
264		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-19.0799	0.0000	262.2
265		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-19.0806	0.0000	251.4
266		St. Bonaventure	A10	-19.0837	0.0000	240.9
267		Eastern Washington	BSky	-19.0945	0.0000	273.9
268		Northern Colorado	BSky	-19.2395	0.0000	283.2
269		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-19.3129	0.0000	275.3
270		Manhattan	MAAC	-19.3452	0.0000	276.2
271		Buffalo	MAC	-19.3940	0.0000	252.4
272		Florida A&M	MEAC	-19.4602	0.0000	280.5
273		Arkansas St.	SB	-19.4635	0.0000	274.1
274		Idaho St.	BSky	-19.4805	0.0000	280.4
275		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-19.6828	0.0000	266.2
276		Mercer	ASun	-19.8377	0.0000	299.3
277		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-19.8740	0.0000	299.7
278		Campbell	ASun	-19.8839	0.0000	294.2
279		Texas Pan American	ind	-19.9448	0.0000	308.7
280		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-19.9825	0.0000	291.3
281		Northern Illinois	MAC	-19.9884	0.0000	266.8
282		Jackson St.	SWAC	-20.0647	0.0000	286.8
283		Harvard	Ivy	-20.1737	0.0000	285.0
284		Centenary	Sum	-20.1978	0.0000	279.7
285		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-20.2459	0.0000	296.4
286		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-20.3136	0.0000	283.2
287		Georgia St.	CAA	-20.3491	0.0000	280.9
288		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-20.3813	0.0000	294.3
289		Western Carolina	SC	-20.3960	0.0000	274.4
290		San Francisco	WCC	-20.4217	0.0000	265.5
291		Colorado St.	MWC	-20.5411	0.0000	243.4
292		Oregon St.	P10	-20.5582	0.0000	244.9
293		Ball St.	MAC	-20.5642	0.0000	269.8
294		Southern	SWAC	-20.6297	0.0000	298.0
295		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-20.7667	0.0000	305.4
296		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-20.8065	0.0000	284.7
297		UC Davis	BW	-21.0687	0.0000	290.7
298		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-21.0872	0.0000	304.2
299		Princeton	Ivy	-21.2778	0.0000	301.8
300		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-21.3856	0.0000	305.2
301		New Hampshire	AE	-21.4640	0.0000	306.5
302		St. Francis PA	NEC	-21.7233	0.0000	307.7
303		St. Peter's	MAAC	-21.8821	0.0000	297.1
304		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-22.0736	0.0000	312.8
305		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-22.1076	0.0000	311.4
306		Dartmouth	Ivy	-22.1153	0.0000	310.4
307		Coppin St.	MEAC	-22.1403	0.0000	301.0
308		Rice	CUSA	-22.1415	0.0000	281.6
309		Monmouth	NEC	-22.1758	0.0000	309.3
310		Portland	WCC	-22.2691	0.0000	288.2
311		Furman	SC	-22.3446	0.0000	302.4
312		Radford	BSth	-22.4750	0.0000	318.8
313		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-22.5531	0.0000	326.5
314		South Dakota St.	Sum	-22.6289	0.0000	307.7
315		UC Riverside	BW	-22.7010	0.0000	295.2
316		Long Beach St.	BW	-22.7525	0.0000	305.7
317		North Carolina Central	ind	-22.8949	0.0000	309.5
318		Grambling	SWAC	-22.9053	0.0000	326.1
319		St. Francis NY	NEC	-22.9709	0.0000	319.3
320		Longwood	ind	-22.9751	0.0000	330.5
321		Texas Southern	SWAC	-23.0144	0.0000	316.9
322		Maine	AE	-23.1104	0.0000	324.4
323		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-23.2855	0.0000	314.2
324		Idaho	WAC	-23.2963	0.0000	308.4
325		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-23.4581	0.0000	297.5
326		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-23.5150	0.0000	331.6
327		Charleston Southern	BSth	-23.6669	0.0000	329.0
328		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-23.6956	0.0000	328.5
329		Canisius	MAAC	-23.8320	0.0000	320.9
330		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-23.8535	0.0000	337.6
331		Sacramento St.	BSky	-23.8721	0.0000	331.6
332		Howard	MEAC	-24.1142	0.0000	329.0
333		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-24.1498	0.0000	339.0
334		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-24.2249	0.0000	337.9
335		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-24.3630	0.0000	341.0
336		Stony Brook	AE	-24.4460	0.0000	333.2
337		Presbyterian	ind	-24.6149	0.0000	328.5
338		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-24.6542	0.0000	335.4
339		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-24.7094	0.0000	319.7
340		The Citadel	SC	-25.5115	0.0000	328.1
341		North Florida	ASun	-26.0399	0.0000	339.1

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com