Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Dec 16, 2008.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	9.5360	1.0000	1.8
2		Pittsburgh	BE	8.2526	1.0000	3.7
3		Duke	ACC	8.1174	1.0000	3.2
4		Oklahoma	B12	7.1681	1.0000	7.5
5	X	Georgetown	BE	7.1253	1.0000	4.8
6	X	Ohio St.	B10	6.2834	1.0000	11.7
7	X	Xavier	A10	6.2692	1.0000	11.2
8		Louisville	BE	5.9896	1.0000	11.5
9	X	Tennessee	SEC	5.8532	1.0000	9.0
10		Clemson	ACC	5.8304	1.0000	11.8
11		Connecticut	BE	5.6178	1.0000	12.1
12	X	Memphis	CUSA	5.5907	1.0000	13.4
13	X	Gonzaga	WCC	5.3058	1.0000	16.1
14	X	Kansas	B12	5.1025	1.0000	15.7
15		Missouri	B12	5.0074	1.0000	15.6
16		Texas	B12	4.9949	1.0000	15.5
17		West Virginia	BE	4.6521	1.0000	17.0
18		Purdue	B10	4.3313	1.0000	24.3
19		Baylor	B12	3.9963	1.0000	20.2
20	X	Butler	Horz	3.8189	0.9999	31.0
21		Villanova	BE	3.7500	0.9999	25.2
22		Illinois	B10	3.6903	0.9999	23.5
23	X	Brigham Young	MWC	3.4127	0.9997	27.8
24		Maryland	ACC	3.3553	0.9996	24.6
25		Michigan St.	B10	3.2502	0.9994	27.2
26		Kentucky	SEC	3.0710	0.9989	28.9
27	X	UCLA	P10	2.9116	0.9982	32.2
28		Syracuse	BE	2.7203	0.9967	27.3
29		Wake Forest	ACC	2.5593	0.9948	31.7
30	X	Davidson	SC	2.3984	0.9918	48.6
31		Miami FL	ACC	2.3581	0.9908	33.7
32		Notre Dame	BE	2.2706	0.9884	34.4
33		Utah	MWC	2.1088	0.9825	33.9
34		Michigan	B10	1.5950	0.9446	36.9
35		Arizona St.	P10	1.5559	0.9401	38.7
36	X	Creighton	MVC	1.4115	0.9209	50.1
37		Kansas St.	B12	1.4032	0.9197	44.2
38		Florida	SEC	1.3998	0.9192	40.6
39		Northwestern	B10	1.3605	0.9132	37.9
40	X	Utah St.	WAC	0.8220	0.7945	49.4
41		Arizona	P10	0.7435	0.7714	41.0
42		Wisconsin	B10	0.6740	0.7499	39.7
43		Dayton	A10	0.6195	0.7322	47.7
44		Oklahoma St.	B12	0.1168	0.5465	40.9
45		Temple	A10	-0.0260	0.4896	52.7
46	X	Miami OH	MAC	-0.0562	0.4776	58.9
47		California	P10	-0.1125	0.4552	47.6
48		Boston College	ACC	-0.2398	0.4053	52.5
49		South Carolina	SEC	-0.2469	0.4025	53.3
50	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-0.4357	0.3315	64.7
51		Houston	CUSA	-0.4638	0.3214	67.2
52		George Mason	CAA	-0.4843	0.3141	65.4
53		Stanford	P10	-0.5445	0.2931	54.9
54		Washington St.	P10	-0.5815	0.2805	58.5
55		Florida St.	ACC	-0.6024	0.2735	47.5
56		Niagara	MAAC	-0.6486	0.2583	66.1
57		Washington	P10	-0.6763	0.2494	48.7
58		Marquette	BE	-0.7882	0.2153	57.2
59		Texas A&M	B12	-0.8190	0.2064	53.4
60		UAB	CUSA	-0.8827	0.1887	58.5
61		Texas Tech	B12	-0.9622	0.1680	51.1
62		Cincinnati	BE	-0.9806	0.1634	59.7
63		Louisiana St.	SEC	-1.0164	0.1547	62.9
64		Evansville	MVC	-1.1905	0.1169	60.7
65		Rhode Island	A10	-1.3158	0.0941	71.2
66		Southern California	P10	-1.5048	0.0662	60.0
67	X	Siena	MAAC	-1.5772	0.0574	71.8
68		Iowa	B10	-1.7003	0.0445	64.0
69		San Diego St.	MWC	-1.8806	0.0300	58.1
70		St. Mary's	WCC	-1.9365	0.0264	83.8
71		Minnesota	B10	-2.0709	0.0192	59.7
72		Vanderbilt	SEC	-2.1061	0.0176	64.0
73		Seton Hall	BE	-2.1405	0.0162	71.7
74		Illinois St.	MVC	-2.3236	0.0101	77.3
75		Nebraska	B12	-2.4194	0.0078	70.7
76		New Mexico	MWC	-2.5190	0.0059	74.5
77		Georgia Tech	ACC	-2.6712	0.0038	71.2
78		Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	-2.7570	0.0029	67.4
79	X	Western Kentucky	SB	-2.7576	0.0029	82.8
80		Mississippi	SEC	-3.0082	0.0013	65.5
81		Saint Joseph's	A10	-3.1559	0.0008	82.1
82		Cleveland St.	Horz	-3.2163	0.0006	85.2
83		North Carolina St.	ACC	-3.4713	0.0003	74.7
84		Virginia Tech	ACC	-3.5079	0.0002	70.8
85	X	Belmont	ASun	-3.5607	0.0002	105.4
86		Tulsa	CUSA	-3.6524	0.0001	95.5
87		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-3.7571	0.0001	98.4
88		Hofstra	CAA	-3.8336	0.0001	96.2
89		Akron	MAC	-3.9832	0.0000	96.4
90		Mississippi St.	SEC	-4.0259	0.0000	84.5
91		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-4.0277	0.0000	107.8
92		Austin Peay	OVC	-4.0299	0.0000	101.1
93	X	Murray St.	OVC	-4.2843	0.0000	110.5
94		Penn St.	B10	-4.4061	0.0000	81.4
95		Arkansas	SEC	-4.4631	0.0000	83.2
96	X	Vermont	AE	-4.5221	0.0000	105.8
97		College of Charleston	SC	-4.6868	0.0000	110.9
98		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-4.7268	0.0000	113.6
99		Duquesne	A10	-4.8004	0.0000	103.8
100		Missouri St.	MVC	-4.8019	0.0000	97.1
101		East Carolina	CUSA	-4.8507	0.0000	106.4
102		Providence	BE	-5.0931	0.0000	91.8
103		Fairfield	MAAC	-5.6838	0.0000	111.1
104		New Mexico St.	WAC	-5.7439	0.0000	114.6
105		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-5.8449	0.0000	115.7
106		Arkansas St.	SB	-6.0265	0.0000	123.2
107	X	UC Santa Barbara	BW	-6.3555	0.0000	122.6
108		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-6.3560	0.0000	130.5
109		Drake	MVC	-6.3773	0.0000	112.0
110		Auburn	SEC	-6.3977	0.0000	106.9
111		Alabama	SEC	-6.4711	0.0000	106.6
112		St. John's	BE	-6.5052	0.0000	99.5
113		Jacksonville	ASun	-6.6019	0.0000	134.4
114		Nevada	WAC	-6.6428	0.0000	122.2
115		Wichita St.	MVC	-6.8007	0.0000	122.4
116		Albany	AE	-6.8228	0.0000	131.3
117		Massachusetts	A10	-6.9121	0.0000	119.0
118		Boston University	AE	-6.9326	0.0000	134.2
119		Virginia	ACC	-7.0342	0.0000	96.8
120		Ohio	MAC	-7.0858	0.0000	129.1
121		North Texas	SB	-7.1297	0.0000	127.3
122	X	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-7.2788	0.0000	140.0
123		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-7.3872	0.0000	140.3
124		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-7.4113	0.0000	117.9
125		Lamar	Slnd	-7.4277	0.0000	146.3
126	X	American	Pat	-7.6047	0.0000	144.1
127		George Washington	A10	-7.6451	0.0000	126.9
128		South Alabama	SB	-7.6948	0.0000	140.5
129		Oregon	P10	-7.7030	0.0000	104.9
130		Western Carolina	SC	-7.9353	0.0000	146.4
131		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-7.9637	0.0000	121.4
132		Southern Illinois	MVC	-7.9948	0.0000	129.0
133	X	Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-8.0932	0.0000	159.6
134		Bradley	MVC	-8.1558	0.0000	125.5
135		Texas Christian	MWC	-8.3253	0.0000	123.4
136		Georgia	SEC	-8.4095	0.0000	114.0
137		Middle Tennessee	SB	-8.4599	0.0000	150.1
138		Navy	Pat	-8.5472	0.0000	153.9
139		Northeastern	CAA	-8.5625	0.0000	143.3
140	X	Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-8.6328	0.0000	154.0
141		Binghamton	AE	-8.7342	0.0000	156.6
142		Rider	MAAC	-8.7706	0.0000	149.4
143		Buffalo	MAC	-8.8279	0.0000	144.5
144		Charlotte	A10	-8.8473	0.0000	143.9
145	X	Portland St.	BSky	-8.8853	0.0000	158.7
146		St. Louis	A10	-8.8930	0.0000	143.9
147	X	North Dakota St.	Sum	-8.9524	0.0000	163.7
148		Kent St.	MAC	-9.0337	0.0000	144.6
149		Pacific	BW	-9.1916	0.0000	159.5
150		Hawaii	WAC	-9.3797	0.0000	150.8
151		Drexel	CAA	-9.3920	0.0000	148.8
152		DePaul	BE	-9.4423	0.0000	128.0
153		Liberty	BSth	-9.4458	0.0000	176.4
154		Marshall	CUSA	-9.5972	0.0000	145.6
155		Santa Clara	WCC	-9.7036	0.0000	157.1
156		Iowa St.	B12	-9.7050	0.0000	132.5
157		San Jose St.	WAC	-9.7264	0.0000	157.3
158		Central Connecticut	NEC	-9.7371	0.0000	169.9
159		Long Beach St.	BW	-9.7445	0.0000	161.6
160		Iona	MAAC	-9.8536	0.0000	159.0
161		Old Dominion	CAA	-10.0617	0.0000	164.7
162		Appalachian St.	SC	-10.1503	0.0000	172.8
163		Manhattan	MAAC	-10.1957	0.0000	165.7
164		La Salle	A10	-10.3229	0.0000	149.8
165		Richmond	A10	-10.4323	0.0000	156.7
166		Utah Valley	ind	-10.5093	0.0000	184.6
167	X	Cornell	Ivy	-10.6012	0.0000	174.3
168		Air Force	MWC	-10.6518	0.0000	149.3
169		San Francisco	WCC	-10.6574	0.0000	164.2
170		South Florida	BE	-10.7817	0.0000	147.4
171		Portland	WCC	-10.8441	0.0000	178.8
172		Oral Roberts	Sum	-10.9216	0.0000	181.8
173		Indiana	B10	-11.1139	0.0000	123.9
174		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-11.1238	0.0000	180.1
175		Bowling Green	MAC	-11.2389	0.0000	173.3
176		Rutgers	BE	-11.3418	0.0000	149.8
177		Colorado	B12	-11.3478	0.0000	153.0
178		Lehigh	Pat	-11.3563	0.0000	187.6
179		Presbyterian	BSth	-11.4045	0.0000	185.7
180		San Diego	WCC	-11.4945	0.0000	169.8
181		MD Baltimore County	AE	-11.5260	0.0000	184.2
182		Boise St.	WAC	-11.5662	0.0000	172.1
183		Oakland	Sum	-11.5845	0.0000	184.5
184		Weber St.	BSky	-11.7783	0.0000	178.3
185		Idaho	WAC	-11.8520	0.0000	181.4
186		Eastern Washington	BSky	-12.0276	0.0000	191.5
187		Wyoming	MWC	-12.3072	0.0000	164.8
188		Mercer	ASun	-12.4225	0.0000	191.5
189		Chattanooga	SC	-12.5268	0.0000	191.3
190		Wofford	SC	-12.5273	0.0000	185.3
191		Montana	BSky	-12.5338	0.0000	203.8
192		Hampton	MEAC	-12.7193	0.0000	211.6
193		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-12.8574	0.0000	193.5
194		Robert Morris	NEC	-12.8886	0.0000	208.6
195		Colorado St.	MWC	-12.9301	0.0000	174.4
196		Delaware	CAA	-13.0380	0.0000	188.5
197		Central Florida	CUSA	-13.0974	0.0000	188.7
198		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-13.2144	0.0000	205.0
199	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-13.2648	0.0000	212.9
200		Georgia Southern	SC	-13.4155	0.0000	206.0
201		St. Bonaventure	A10	-13.5035	0.0000	194.0
202		Stetson	ASun	-13.6462	0.0000	204.2
203		Montana St.	BSky	-13.6584	0.0000	215.7
204		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-13.7554	0.0000	218.3
205		Idaho St.	BSky	-13.8148	0.0000	205.3
206		Towson	CAA	-13.8673	0.0000	191.7
207		Fresno St.	WAC	-13.9462	0.0000	198.3
208		Southern Utah	Sum	-13.9608	0.0000	222.4
209		Florida International	SB	-13.9946	0.0000	198.8
210		Florida Atlantic	SB	-14.0332	0.0000	200.5
211		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-14.2890	0.0000	222.3
212		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-14.3331	0.0000	206.7
213		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-14.5361	0.0000	217.5
214		McNeese St.	Slnd	-14.5489	0.0000	227.2
215		Stony Brook	AE	-14.6121	0.0000	226.0
216		UC Riverside	BW	-14.6141	0.0000	223.4
217		Maine	AE	-14.6323	0.0000	220.0
218		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-14.7293	0.0000	222.3
219		Holy Cross	Pat	-14.7896	0.0000	235.5
220		Wagner	NEC	-14.8952	0.0000	232.5
221		Northern Iowa	MVC	-14.9085	0.0000	197.9
222		Northern Arizona	BSky	-14.9344	0.0000	225.6
223		Wright St.	Horz	-15.0751	0.0000	211.8
224		Ball St.	MAC	-15.2043	0.0000	220.9
225		Quinnipiac	NEC	-15.2982	0.0000	243.8
226		Brown	Ivy	-15.3780	0.0000	228.8
227		James Madison	CAA	-15.4061	0.0000	216.5
228		Gardner Webb	ASun	-15.4481	0.0000	230.7
229		William & Mary	CAA	-15.5417	0.0000	225.7
230		Savannah St.	ind	-15.6871	0.0000	229.5
231		Northern Colorado	BSky	-15.7032	0.0000	236.9
232		Bucknell	Pat	-15.8437	0.0000	241.2
233		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-15.8972	0.0000	233.7
234		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-16.0635	0.0000	223.3
235		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-16.1555	0.0000	239.9
236		St. Francis NY	NEC	-16.1637	0.0000	243.8
237		Georgia St.	CAA	-16.1941	0.0000	230.3
238		Rice	CUSA	-16.3028	0.0000	223.5
239		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-16.3297	0.0000	250.5
240		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-16.3660	0.0000	233.7
241		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-16.4038	0.0000	246.9
242		Tulane	CUSA	-16.4515	0.0000	221.9
243		Marist	MAAC	-16.4729	0.0000	233.0
244		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-16.5299	0.0000	247.1
245		Harvard	Ivy	-16.5667	0.0000	254.3
246	X	Jackson St.	SWAC	-16.6014	0.0000	254.7
247		Valparaiso	Horz	-16.8719	0.0000	236.5
248		Coppin St.	MEAC	-16.9125	0.0000	254.4
249		Lipscomb	ASun	-16.9433	0.0000	258.2
250		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-16.9597	0.0000	259.9
251		Cal Poly	BW	-17.0484	0.0000	249.5
252		Sacred Heart	NEC	-17.0611	0.0000	256.0
253		NC Asheville	BSth	-17.1389	0.0000	263.0
254		IUPUI	Sum	-17.1906	0.0000	259.0
255		Texas St.	Slnd	-17.2865	0.0000	265.7
256		Loyola MD	MAAC	-17.3196	0.0000	228.7
257		New Orleans	SB	-17.3656	0.0000	251.7
258		Long Island	NEC	-17.5541	0.0000	271.5
259		Campbell	ASun	-17.8610	0.0000	264.8
260		Toledo	MAC	-17.8738	0.0000	253.2
261		UC Davis	BW	-17.9150	0.0000	268.6
262		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-17.9171	0.0000	249.7
263		Western Michigan	MAC	-18.0478	0.0000	260.5
264		Denver	SB	-18.0518	0.0000	270.1
265		Hartford	AE	-18.0531	0.0000	248.7
266		Indiana St.	MVC	-18.0614	0.0000	236.7
267		Central Michigan	MAC	-18.2625	0.0000	259.9
268		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-18.4560	0.0000	265.6
269		Canisius	MAAC	-18.5775	0.0000	246.7
270		Delaware St.	MEAC	-18.6143	0.0000	273.6
271		St. Francis PA	NEC	-18.6328	0.0000	269.3
272		Yale	Ivy	-18.6375	0.0000	277.3
273		Lafayette	Pat	-18.6935	0.0000	275.4
274		Troy	SB	-18.7711	0.0000	258.2
275		Alabama St.	SWAC	-18.7956	0.0000	284.6
276		Morehead St.	OVC	-18.8202	0.0000	269.1
277		Winthrop	BSth	-18.9281	0.0000	266.1
278		Princeton	Ivy	-19.0975	0.0000	286.3
279		Samford	SC	-19.1006	0.0000	271.0
280		Elon	SC	-19.1907	0.0000	266.3
281		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-19.2693	0.0000	295.0
282		Detroit	Horz	-19.2988	0.0000	265.8
283		New Hampshire	AE	-19.3246	0.0000	274.9
284		Columbia	Ivy	-19.5331	0.0000	286.2
285		Chicago St.	ind	-19.7086	0.0000	292.6
286		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-19.7481	0.0000	297.4
287		Army	Pat	-19.8711	0.0000	293.3
288		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-20.0432	0.0000	285.7
289		Oregon St.	P10	-20.2581	0.0000	235.3
290		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-20.3547	0.0000	302.7
291		St. Peter's	MAAC	-20.3816	0.0000	277.8
292		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-20.4464	0.0000	266.5
293		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-20.4920	0.0000	304.0
294		Radford	BSth	-20.4969	0.0000	296.9
295		South Dakota St.	Sum	-20.5225	0.0000	296.3
296		Charleston Southern	BSth	-20.5477	0.0000	292.4
297		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-20.5624	0.0000	283.9
298		Longwood	ind	-20.5910	0.0000	301.0
299		NC Wilmington	CAA	-20.6805	0.0000	267.5
300		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-20.6970	0.0000	300.6
301		Tennessee St.	OVC	-20.7853	0.0000	286.9
302		Northern Illinois	MAC	-20.9478	0.0000	301.8
303		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-20.9685	0.0000	300.9
304		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-21.1881	0.0000	288.9
305		Colgate	Pat	-21.2502	0.0000	304.8
306		Texas Southern	SWAC	-21.3034	0.0000	307.2
307		Bryant	ind	-21.4978	0.0000	312.1
308		Texas Pan American	ind	-21.6239	0.0000	321.3
309		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-21.6361	0.0000	312.6
310		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-21.6484	0.0000	303.5
311		UC Irvine	BW	-21.7127	0.0000	297.5
312		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-21.7624	0.0000	300.2
313		Youngstown St.	Horz	-21.8468	0.0000	295.2
314		The Citadel	SC	-21.9896	0.0000	291.3
315		Winston Salem St.	ind	-22.1038	0.0000	318.8
316		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-22.3287	0.0000	307.4
317		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-22.4069	0.0000	307.4
318		Fordham	A10	-22.4704	0.0000	291.2
319		Southern	SWAC	-22.5467	0.0000	330.0
320		Furman	SC	-22.6515	0.0000	300.7
321		Florida A&M	MEAC	-22.7472	0.0000	308.0
322		Dartmouth	Ivy	-22.7779	0.0000	321.2
323		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-22.8926	0.0000	326.8
324		Pepperdine	WCC	-23.0026	0.0000	308.3
325		Sacramento St.	BSky	-23.0242	0.0000	323.4
326		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-23.2361	0.0000	313.9
327		Houston Baptist	ind	-23.2679	0.0000	326.5
328		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-23.3009	0.0000	310.8
329		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-23.3926	0.0000	316.8
330		Monmouth	NEC	-23.4516	0.0000	320.6
331		Howard	MEAC	-23.4717	0.0000	330.9
332		Western Illinois	Sum	-23.6033	0.0000	327.7
333		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-23.6287	0.0000	320.4
334		Centenary	Sum	-23.6456	0.0000	319.7
335		High Point	BSth	-23.8810	0.0000	331.8
336		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-24.0450	0.0000	339.0
337		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-24.4552	0.0000	342.2
338		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-24.4643	0.0000	319.5
339		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-24.5759	0.0000	340.2
340		Grambling	SWAC	-25.0922	0.0000	341.4
341		NC Greensboro	SC	-25.2768	0.0000	326.8
342		North Florida	ASun	-25.6461	0.0000	337.9
343		North Carolina Central	ind	-25.9187	0.0000	338.2

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com