Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive

Through games of Dec 16, 2006.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	Florida	SEC	8.1589	1.0000	4.6
2	X	Arizona	P10	7.8253	1.0000	3.7
3		UCLA	P10	7.5345	1.0000	4.1
4	X	North Carolina	ACC	7.1370	1.0000	4.7
5	X	Ohio St.	B10	6.5637	1.0000	7.7
6		Duke	ACC	6.3901	1.0000	5.1
7	X	Texas A&M	B12	5.5890	1.0000	13.4
8		Maryland	ACC	5.5825	1.0000	8.0
9	X	Butler	Horz	5.5158	1.0000	23.3
10		Tennessee	SEC	5.2095	1.0000	11.5
11	X	Notre Dame	BE	5.0735	1.0000	25.0
12		Connecticut	BE	4.8760	1.0000	22.0
13		Purdue	B10	4.7603	1.0000	20.5
14		Oregon	P10	4.7180	1.0000	21.7
15		Villanova	BE	4.5882	1.0000	10.8
16		Wichita St.	MVC	4.5800	1.0000	23.5
17	X	Missouri St.	MVC	4.4739	1.0000	21.4
18		Georgia	SEC	4.3950	1.0000	20.7
19	X	Air Force	MWC	4.1520	1.0000	29.4
20		Kansas	B12	4.0876	1.0000	30.3
21		Michigan St.	B10	4.0763	1.0000	19.6
22		Clemson	ACC	3.8798	0.9999	20.0
23		Wisconsin	B10	3.5525	0.9998	27.8
24		Illinois	B10	3.2691	0.9995	24.1
25		Louisiana St.	SEC	3.1781	0.9993	30.4
26		Providence	BE	3.0669	0.9989	28.6
27		Oklahoma St.	B12	2.8807	0.9980	24.2
28		Kentucky	SEC	2.8658	0.9979	25.6
29		Mississippi St.	SEC	2.7667	0.9972	30.2
30	X	Memphis	CUSA	2.7447	0.9970	32.7
31		Southern Illinois	MVC	2.4455	0.9928	35.0
32	X	Western Kentucky	SB	2.4194	0.9922	39.4
33	X	Gonzaga	WCC	2.3942	0.9917	40.3
34		Pittsburgh	BE	2.3403	0.9904	24.8
35	X	Xavier	A10	2.3022	0.9893	39.0
36		Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	2.1283	0.9833	31.7
37		Florida St.	ACC	1.8308	0.9664	31.8
38		Boston College	ACC	1.7797	0.9624	34.0
39		West Virginia	BE	1.7515	0.9601	40.7
40	X	Nevada	WAC	1.6666	0.9522	44.5
41		Oklahoma	B12	1.5396	0.9382	36.6
42		Missouri	B12	1.3907	0.9178	36.8
43		Virginia Tech	ACC	1.3702	0.9147	40.7
44		Marquette	BE	1.0691	0.8575	39.7
45		Georgia Tech	ACC	1.0610	0.8557	45.0
46		Drexel	CAA	1.0339	0.8494	54.0
47		Texas	B12	0.9063	0.8176	48.3
48		Alabama	SEC	0.7570	0.7755	40.6
49		Syracuse	BE	0.6151	0.7307	44.0
50	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.5536	0.7101	57.5
51		Indiana	B10	0.5230	0.6995	46.2
52		Arkansas	SEC	0.4865	0.6867	41.3
53		Virginia	ACC	0.4471	0.6726	45.4
54		Bradley	MVC	0.3094	0.6215	56.3
55		San Diego St.	MWC	0.3030	0.6190	49.5
56		Georgetown	BE	0.0585	0.5233	49.7
57		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-0.3660	0.3572	57.9
58		St. Louis	A10	-0.6174	0.2685	59.4
59		Southern California	P10	-0.6764	0.2494	58.8
60		Washington St.	P10	-0.7613	0.2232	59.7
61	X	Winthrop	BSth	-0.9442	0.1725	74.5
62	X	Belmont	ASun	-1.4050	0.0800	87.1
63		Michigan	B10	-1.5069	0.0659	58.2
64		Texas Tech	B12	-1.6250	0.0521	54.1
65		California	P10	-1.7300	0.0418	60.1
66		Houston	CUSA	-1.8745	0.0304	64.2
67		DePaul	BE	-1.8946	0.0291	62.0
68		Tulsa	CUSA	-2.0461	0.0204	70.6
69		Seton Hall	BE	-2.1393	0.0162	62.7
70	X	Kent St.	MAC	-2.2758	0.0114	83.6
71		George Washington	A10	-2.3135	0.0103	77.4
72		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-2.3232	0.0101	77.3
73	X	Marist	MAAC	-2.3474	0.0095	90.6
74		Massachusetts	A10	-2.3500	0.0094	81.3
75		Brigham Young	MWC	-2.4382	0.0074	72.0
76	X	UC Santa Barbara	BW	-2.5731	0.0050	91.4
77		Washington	P10	-2.8341	0.0023	67.8
78		Dayton	A10	-2.9405	0.0016	75.0
79		Santa Clara	WCC	-3.2115	0.0007	84.9
80		UAB	CUSA	-3.2822	0.0005	81.9
81		Fresno St.	WAC	-3.3242	0.0004	91.9
82	X	Pennsylvania	Ivy	-3.5504	0.0002	98.9
83	X	Davidson	SC	-3.8606	0.0001	102.5
84		Old Dominion	CAA	-3.9114	0.0000	86.4
85		Akron	MAC	-3.9188	0.0000	105.4
86		Nebraska	B12	-4.1465	0.0000	85.7
87		Illinois St.	MVC	-4.2601	0.0000	83.6
88		North Carolina St.	ACC	-4.5286	0.0000	77.3
89		George Mason	CAA	-4.5927	0.0000	104.2
90		Cincinnati	BE	-4.6455	0.0000	83.2
91		Utah St.	WAC	-4.6948	0.0000	94.7
92		Temple	A10	-4.9207	0.0000	97.3
93		Holy Cross	Pat	-4.9427	0.0000	102.5
94		Creighton	MVC	-5.2487	0.0000	90.7
95		Toledo	MAC	-5.2882	0.0000	111.9
96	X	Navy	Pat	-5.3813	0.0000	112.1
97		Stanford	P10	-5.4505	0.0000	88.9
98		New Mexico St.	WAC	-5.4694	0.0000	109.7
99		Boise St.	WAC	-5.4770	0.0000	113.7
100		Utah	MWC	-5.4786	0.0000	103.1
101		Mississippi	SEC	-5.4861	0.0000	83.9
102		Central Florida	CUSA	-5.4870	0.0000	120.7
103		Fordham	A10	-5.4880	0.0000	111.9
104		Miami FL	ACC	-5.5398	0.0000	102.3
105		South Carolina	SEC	-5.6323	0.0000	88.7
106		Vermont	AE	-5.8124	0.0000	125.6
107		Northwestern	B10	-5.8794	0.0000	101.0
108		Louisville	BE	-6.2506	0.0000	90.7
109		Vanderbilt	SEC	-6.2846	0.0000	104.6
110		Northern Iowa	MVC	-6.3809	0.0000	104.0
111		Hawaii	WAC	-6.3856	0.0000	108.0
112		New Mexico	MWC	-6.3946	0.0000	106.1
113		Evansville	MVC	-6.5947	0.0000	102.0
114		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-6.8043	0.0000	124.7
115	X	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-6.8931	0.0000	132.3
116		Army	Pat	-6.8992	0.0000	126.4
117	X	Sacred Heart	NEC	-6.9576	0.0000	140.9
118		Wyoming	MWC	-7.1557	0.0000	111.2
119		Western Michigan	MAC	-7.1565	0.0000	133.1
120		Middle Tennessee	SB	-7.5450	0.0000	136.3
121		South Florida	BE	-7.6037	0.0000	111.9
122		American	Pat	-7.6830	0.0000	138.3
123	X	Idaho St.	BSky	-7.7431	0.0000	137.3
124		Iowa	B10	-7.8429	0.0000	117.2
125		Drake	MVC	-7.9676	0.0000	117.3
126		IUPUI	MCon	-7.9818	0.0000	137.2
127		Miami OH	MAC	-8.0159	0.0000	129.8
128		Eastern Washington	BSky	-8.1247	0.0000	147.5
129		North Dakota St.	ind	-8.1663	0.0000	161.9
130		Baylor	B12	-8.1965	0.0000	110.4
131		Towson	CAA	-8.4153	0.0000	130.5
132		North Texas	SB	-8.4977	0.0000	152.3
133		St. John's	BE	-8.5052	0.0000	111.1
134		Long Beach St.	BW	-8.5263	0.0000	146.2
135		Saint Joseph's	A10	-8.5324	0.0000	132.1
136		Rider	MAAC	-8.6034	0.0000	159.4
137		Bucknell	Pat	-8.6210	0.0000	149.6
138		Samford	OVC	-8.6874	0.0000	162.3
139		Oral Roberts	MCon	-8.7640	0.0000	149.5
140		Albany	AE	-8.7740	0.0000	157.0
141		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-8.9364	0.0000	134.3
142	X	Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-8.9410	0.0000	159.9
143		Indiana St.	MVC	-8.9838	0.0000	122.3
144		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-9.0024	0.0000	158.7
145		Ohio	MAC	-9.3381	0.0000	153.9
146		Auburn	SEC	-9.4324	0.0000	116.7
147	X	Valparaiso	MCon	-9.4674	0.0000	162.6
148		Wake Forest	ACC	-9.5180	0.0000	123.8
149		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-9.5516	0.0000	171.2
150		Oakland	MCon	-9.5707	0.0000	154.9
151		Kansas St.	B12	-9.5895	0.0000	126.2
152		Hartford	AE	-9.7732	0.0000	167.0
153		Penn St.	B10	-9.7915	0.0000	129.2
154		Buffalo	MAC	-9.8435	0.0000	159.1
155		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-10.0231	0.0000	164.2
156		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-10.0565	0.0000	158.5
157		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-10.1483	0.0000	174.1
158		Murray St.	OVC	-10.1775	0.0000	177.4
159		Ball St.	MAC	-10.2275	0.0000	153.6
160		St. Mary's	WCC	-10.3427	0.0000	153.2
161		Furman	SC	-10.3428	0.0000	177.6
162		Rhode Island	A10	-10.3836	0.0000	143.6
163		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-10.4146	0.0000	151.6
164		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-10.4236	0.0000	173.5
165		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-10.4729	0.0000	176.9
166		Liberty	BSth	-10.6634	0.0000	173.5
167		Princeton	Ivy	-10.9519	0.0000	179.7
168		Loyola MD	MAAC	-11.0037	0.0000	182.1
169		Chattanooga	SC	-11.0330	0.0000	182.2
170		Arizona St.	P10	-11.0590	0.0000	150.9
171		Robert Morris	NEC	-11.1198	0.0000	189.4
172		San Francisco	WCC	-11.1503	0.0000	168.8
173		Utah Valley St.	ind	-11.2132	0.0000	190.9
174		Siena	MAAC	-11.2616	0.0000	186.8
175		Southern Utah	MCon	-11.2928	0.0000	185.4
176		College of Charleston	SC	-11.3257	0.0000	180.9
177		San Diego	WCC	-11.4345	0.0000	172.1
178		Lipscomb	ASun	-11.5103	0.0000	189.6
179		NC Wilmington	CAA	-11.5374	0.0000	175.5
180		Canisius	MAAC	-11.5710	0.0000	186.4
181		Charlotte	A10	-11.5821	0.0000	157.4
182		Colorado St.	MWC	-11.5975	0.0000	159.0
183		Minnesota	B10	-11.6879	0.0000	145.6
184		Appalachian St.	SC	-11.7690	0.0000	190.0
185		Texas Christian	MWC	-11.7752	0.0000	149.9
186	X	Boston University	AE	-11.8215	0.0000	192.4
187		Portland St.	BSky	-11.8672	0.0000	188.9
188		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-11.9431	0.0000	162.8
189		Richmond	A10	-11.9687	0.0000	166.1
190		Tulane	CUSA	-12.0540	0.0000	175.0
191		Columbia	Ivy	-12.3010	0.0000	198.8
192		MD Baltimore County	AE	-12.4332	0.0000	194.7
193		South Alabama	SB	-12.4387	0.0000	186.7
194		Northern Arizona	BSky	-12.4481	0.0000	200.8
195		Tennessee St.	OVC	-12.4733	0.0000	195.4
196		Montana	BSky	-12.5271	0.0000	196.1
197		Harvard	Ivy	-12.5303	0.0000	194.5
198		UC Irvine	BW	-12.5624	0.0000	187.3
199		Rice	CUSA	-12.7319	0.0000	169.6
200		Lehigh	Pat	-12.8618	0.0000	199.1
201		Iowa St.	B12	-13.0048	0.0000	165.7
202		New Orleans	SB	-13.1874	0.0000	207.6
203		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-13.3607	0.0000	218.2
204		Cleveland St.	Horz	-13.3894	0.0000	206.6
205	X	Delaware St.	MEAC	-13.6088	0.0000	211.1
206		Pacific	BW	-13.6262	0.0000	198.9
207		High Point	BSth	-13.6808	0.0000	211.4
208		Western Carolina	SC	-13.8763	0.0000	211.9
209		Georgia Southern	SC	-14.0557	0.0000	221.9
210		Brown	Ivy	-14.0974	0.0000	221.3
211		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-14.2041	0.0000	226.1
212		Maine	AE	-14.2743	0.0000	222.3
213		Austin Peay	OVC	-14.4136	0.0000	226.0
214		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-14.4192	0.0000	222.6
215		Pepperdine	WCC	-14.4596	0.0000	207.9
216		Weber St.	BSky	-14.4964	0.0000	221.7
217		Cornell	Ivy	-14.5012	0.0000	231.0
218		Oregon St.	P10	-14.5369	0.0000	175.6
219		Hofstra	CAA	-14.5750	0.0000	212.2
220		Yale	Ivy	-14.6959	0.0000	220.8
221		Central Michigan	MAC	-14.7161	0.0000	218.6
222		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-14.7842	0.0000	233.2
223		Monmouth	NEC	-14.8512	0.0000	222.7
224		Lamar	Slnd	-14.9272	0.0000	228.7
225		Northeastern	CAA	-14.9993	0.0000	207.2
226		Troy	SB	-14.9999	0.0000	223.4
227		NC Greensboro	SC	-15.0273	0.0000	233.0
228		La Salle	A10	-15.2146	0.0000	207.3
229		Florida Atlantic	SB	-15.2293	0.0000	221.5
230		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-15.3513	0.0000	228.8
231	X	Jackson St.	SWAC	-15.3614	0.0000	234.4
232		East Carolina	CUSA	-15.3791	0.0000	218.6
233		William & Mary	CAA	-15.4798	0.0000	212.0
234		Youngstown St.	Horz	-15.5410	0.0000	223.7
235		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-15.7806	0.0000	247.2
236		Fairfield	MAAC	-15.8944	0.0000	221.5
237		Jacksonville	ASun	-15.9455	0.0000	239.5
238		Coppin St.	MEAC	-16.0038	0.0000	235.1
239		McNeese St.	Slnd	-16.1204	0.0000	235.6
240		St. Francis PA	NEC	-16.1631	0.0000	249.3
241		Howard	MEAC	-16.4100	0.0000	258.2
242		Stony Brook	AE	-16.4611	0.0000	246.0
243		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-16.5437	0.0000	215.4
244		Charleston Southern	BSth	-16.6347	0.0000	251.2
245		Rutgers	BE	-16.6443	0.0000	193.4
246		Northern Illinois	MAC	-16.7708	0.0000	241.9
247		St. Peter's	MAAC	-17.1003	0.0000	252.8
248		Morehead St.	OVC	-17.1600	0.0000	263.2
249		Hampton	MEAC	-17.3284	0.0000	258.9
250		Texas Pan American	ind	-17.5082	0.0000	260.3
251		Chicago St.	MCon	-17.5765	0.0000	245.3
252		Longwood	ind	-17.6483	0.0000	251.3
253		IUPU Fort Wayne	ind	-17.7172	0.0000	262.7
254		Campbell	ASun	-17.8419	0.0000	261.1
255		Marshall	CUSA	-17.8437	0.0000	229.4
256		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-17.8539	0.0000	267.4
257		Radford	BSth	-17.8625	0.0000	256.2
258		Bowling Green	MAC	-17.9006	0.0000	255.5
259		Arkansas St.	SB	-17.9031	0.0000	261.5
260		Mercer	ASun	-18.0072	0.0000	265.7
261		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-18.0287	0.0000	267.8
262		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-18.0700	0.0000	263.2
263		Centenary	MCon	-18.3945	0.0000	260.2
264		San Jose St.	WAC	-18.4824	0.0000	241.5
265		Stetson	ASun	-18.6154	0.0000	263.9
266		Iona	MAAC	-18.6247	0.0000	268.9
267		Southern	SWAC	-18.6893	0.0000	278.9
268		Missouri Kansas City	MCon	-18.6981	0.0000	268.4
269		Lafayette	Pat	-18.8521	0.0000	257.5
270		Florida A&M	MEAC	-18.8562	0.0000	278.1
271		NC Asheville	BSth	-18.8805	0.0000	271.8
272		Wofford	SC	-18.9207	0.0000	273.3
273		UC Riverside	BW	-19.0575	0.0000	274.8
274		Quinnipiac	NEC	-19.1670	0.0000	285.2
275		Gardner Webb	ASun	-19.1679	0.0000	267.5
276		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-19.2703	0.0000	257.5
277		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-19.3127	0.0000	267.7
278		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-19.3287	0.0000	289.6
279		Cal Poly	BW	-19.3734	0.0000	280.0
280		Texas Southern	SWAC	-19.4007	0.0000	284.5
281		Detroit	Horz	-19.4171	0.0000	258.3
282		Colgate	Pat	-19.4185	0.0000	272.5
283		Florida International	SB	-19.5174	0.0000	268.1
284		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-19.5649	0.0000	282.0
285		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-19.5867	0.0000	278.9
286		Wagner	NEC	-19.6821	0.0000	292.3
287		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-19.6921	0.0000	288.8
288		Morgan St.	MEAC	-19.9639	0.0000	292.7
289		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-20.0254	0.0000	298.8
290		Colorado	B12	-20.1485	0.0000	246.0
291		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-20.2067	0.0000	293.6
292		Georgia St.	CAA	-20.2146	0.0000	264.6
293		Grambling	SWAC	-20.2490	0.0000	298.4
294		Binghamton	AE	-20.3887	0.0000	292.3
295		Manhattan	MAAC	-20.6502	0.0000	291.5
296		Long Island	NEC	-20.7159	0.0000	306.5
297		Western Illinois	MCon	-20.7622	0.0000	295.0
298		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-20.7887	0.0000	297.3
299		Duquesne	A10	-20.8140	0.0000	272.1
300		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-21.0186	0.0000	288.7
301		Niagara	MAAC	-21.1395	0.0000	298.4
302		Wright St.	Horz	-21.1909	0.0000	287.7
303		Central Connecticut	NEC	-21.2845	0.0000	307.3
304		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-21.3738	0.0000	306.1
305		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-21.6328	0.0000	310.5
306		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-21.6518	0.0000	317.5
307		UC Davis	ind	-21.7447	0.0000	316.8
308		Sacramento St.	BSky	-21.9048	0.0000	305.4
309		Alabama St.	SWAC	-21.9283	0.0000	312.4
310		New Hampshire	AE	-21.9656	0.0000	314.3
311		James Madison	CAA	-22.3327	0.0000	295.2
312		Texas St.	Slnd	-22.3364	0.0000	314.4
313		Northern Colorado	BSky	-22.3708	0.0000	321.6
314		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-22.3819	0.0000	309.5
315		The Citadel	SC	-22.4071	0.0000	300.5
316		Savannah St.	ind	-22.4423	0.0000	312.1
317		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-22.4533	0.0000	315.5
318		Idaho	WAC	-22.4976	0.0000	284.5
319		Delaware	CAA	-22.5529	0.0000	301.7
320		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-22.5812	0.0000	322.8
321		Dartmouth	Ivy	-22.9046	0.0000	309.9
322		Elon	SC	-22.9775	0.0000	308.4
323		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-23.1204	0.0000	317.0
324		St. Francis NY	NEC	-23.2079	0.0000	320.5
325		St. Bonaventure	A10	-23.3181	0.0000	306.3
326		North Florida	ASun	-23.3881	0.0000	323.4
327		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-23.4122	0.0000	320.8
328		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-23.4693	0.0000	309.6
329		Winston Salem St.	ind	-23.5144	0.0000	323.4
330		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-23.5739	0.0000	315.6
331		Portland	WCC	-23.6084	0.0000	304.9
332		Montana St.	BSky	-23.6447	0.0000	324.1
333		South Dakota St.	ind	-23.8109	0.0000	332.1
334		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.9066	0.0000	334.1
335		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-24.0368	0.0000	333.7
336		Denver	SB	-24.8274	0.0000	334.7

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, and to Jay Colemen for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com