Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Jan 15, 2008.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	10.0599	1.0000	1.3
2	X	Kansas	B12	8.7422	1.0000	4.7
3		Duke	ACC	8.4795	1.0000	3.9
4	X	Memphis	CUSA	8.1655	1.0000	3.7
5	X	Tennessee	SEC	7.9719	1.0000	3.0
6	X	UCLA	P10	7.9453	1.0000	7.8
7		Marquette	BE	6.8642	1.0000	10.0
8	X	Xavier	A10	6.4825	1.0000	8.0
9	X	Wisconsin	B10	5.4602	1.0000	14.3
10		Washington St.	P10	5.3292	1.0000	19.0
11		Indiana	B10	5.2121	1.0000	19.2
12		Mississippi	SEC	5.0950	1.0000	16.0
13	X	West Virginia	BE	4.9436	1.0000	16.9
14		Michigan St.	B10	4.9244	1.0000	18.3
15		Pittsburgh	BE	4.9187	1.0000	15.7
16		Texas A&M	B12	4.7535	1.0000	19.1
17		Rhode Island	A10	4.7030	1.0000	21.3
18		Texas	B12	4.6842	1.0000	12.3
19		Georgetown	BE	4.6468	1.0000	19.7
20		Dayton	A10	4.4944	1.0000	16.2
21		Clemson	ACC	4.3365	1.0000	24.4
22	X	Butler	Horz	4.1216	1.0000	31.5
23	X	Drake	MVC	3.7137	0.9999	24.9
24	X	Gonzaga	WCC	3.2846	0.9995	34.5
25		St. Mary's	WCC	3.2840	0.9995	31.0
26		Arizona	P10	3.2518	0.9994	16.9
27		Ohio St.	B10	3.1966	0.9993	26.6
28		Arkansas	SEC	3.0427	0.9988	28.3
29		Oregon	P10	2.3723	0.9912	35.5
30		Notre Dame	BE	2.2598	0.9881	38.2
31		Louisville	BE	2.0911	0.9817	34.1
32		Oklahoma	B12	2.0764	0.9811	29.9
33		Vanderbilt	SEC	1.9907	0.9767	28.0
34		Connecticut	BE	1.9571	0.9748	29.3
35		Miami FL	ACC	1.7299	0.9582	35.0
36		Florida	SEC	1.6301	0.9485	40.0
37		Duquesne	A10	1.4652	0.9286	44.4
38	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	1.3148	0.9057	37.9
39		Syracuse	BE	1.2290	0.8905	33.9
40		Stanford	P10	1.2115	0.8872	40.5
41		Florida St.	ACC	1.1965	0.8842	35.7
42		Baylor	B12	0.8744	0.8090	39.8
43		Missouri	B12	0.8409	0.7998	41.0
44		Kansas St.	B12	0.8157	0.7927	38.9
45		Illinois St.	MVC	0.6886	0.7545	51.4
46	X	South Alabama	SB	0.6298	0.7356	55.3
47		Creighton	MVC	0.5620	0.7130	47.9
48		Mississippi St.	SEC	0.5195	0.6983	40.8
49		California	P10	0.3259	0.6278	40.1
50		Utah	MWC	0.0566	0.5226	50.5
51		Southern California	P10	-0.1500	0.4404	52.5
52		UAB	CUSA	-0.3869	0.3494	54.6
53		Arizona St.	P10	-0.4184	0.3378	55.2
54		Saint Joseph's	A10	-0.5606	0.2875	50.8
55		Minnesota	B10	-0.6386	0.2615	54.6
56		Providence	BE	-0.6634	0.2536	55.1
57		Kent St.	MAC	-0.9224	0.1782	69.2
58		Brigham Young	MWC	-1.0653	0.1434	63.7
59	X	Siena	MAAC	-1.2127	0.1126	75.4
60		Massachusetts	A10	-1.2871	0.0990	57.0
61	X	Miami OH	MAC	-1.3141	0.0944	68.5
62	X	Davidson	SC	-1.3653	0.0861	83.1
63		New Mexico	MWC	-1.3749	0.0846	66.1
64		Boston College	ACC	-1.5044	0.0662	56.6
65		Akron	MAC	-1.5993	0.0549	77.7
66		George Mason	CAA	-1.6059	0.0541	76.9
67	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-1.6386	0.0507	72.6
68		Ohio	MAC	-1.6834	0.0461	68.2
69	X	IUPUI	Sum	-1.8826	0.0299	91.9
70	X	Cal St. Northridge	BW	-1.9162	0.0277	77.9
71	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-2.1049	0.0176	81.6
72		Western Kentucky	SB	-2.3155	0.0103	81.0
73		Cleveland St.	Horz	-2.3395	0.0097	73.7
74		North Texas	SB	-2.4536	0.0071	87.2
75		San Diego St.	MWC	-2.5994	0.0047	71.5
76		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-2.6616	0.0039	84.5
77		Valparaiso	Horz	-2.6709	0.0038	80.4
78		Oral Roberts	Sum	-2.6892	0.0036	94.0
79		Villanova	BE	-2.8487	0.0022	72.9
80		Maryland	ACC	-2.8612	0.0021	62.2
81		Southern Illinois	MVC	-2.9340	0.0017	77.9
82		Virginia Tech	ACC	-3.2824	0.0005	80.4
83		Niagara	MAAC	-3.3427	0.0004	93.0
84		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-3.3654	0.0004	91.2
85		Virginia	ACC	-3.4309	0.0003	75.3
86		Nevada	WAC	-3.4604	0.0003	86.5
87		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-3.4789	0.0003	97.2
88		Houston	CUSA	-3.6014	0.0002	84.7
89		Charlotte	A10	-3.8133	0.0001	94.3
90		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-4.0024	0.0000	84.3
91	X	Winthrop	BSth	-4.0364	0.0000	108.4
92		Illinois	B10	-4.1874	0.0000	86.6
93	X	Texas Arlington	Slnd	-4.3294	0.0000	107.0
94		Georgia Southern	SC	-4.3584	0.0000	103.1
95		Purdue	B10	-4.4453	0.0000	100.4
96		Alabama	SEC	-4.5081	0.0000	76.8
97		Chattanooga	SC	-4.5518	0.0000	103.0
98		Oklahoma St.	B12	-4.8629	0.0000	84.6
99		North Carolina St.	ACC	-5.0001	0.0000	88.9
100		Central Florida	CUSA	-5.0374	0.0000	100.6
101		Temple	A10	-5.1196	0.0000	93.3
102		Kentucky	SEC	-5.2254	0.0000	93.1
103	X	MD Baltimore County	AE	-5.2493	0.0000	121.4
104		South Florida	BE	-5.2660	0.0000	97.4
105		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-5.2873	0.0000	113.6
106		Hampton	MEAC	-5.4491	0.0000	118.6
107		Nebraska	B12	-5.5451	0.0000	102.6
108		Texas Tech	B12	-5.6258	0.0000	89.4
109		Georgia Tech	ACC	-5.7849	0.0000	97.0
110		Washington	P10	-5.8114	0.0000	92.4
111		Utah St.	WAC	-5.9483	0.0000	120.3
112		James Madison	CAA	-5.9570	0.0000	128.4
113	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-6.0032	0.0000	114.6
114		Boise St.	WAC	-6.0367	0.0000	127.9
115		Wake Forest	ACC	-6.2697	0.0000	106.7
116		NC Asheville	BSth	-6.3827	0.0000	130.4
117		Wright St.	Horz	-6.4419	0.0000	121.3
118		Marist	MAAC	-6.6481	0.0000	120.5
119		Seton Hall	BE	-6.6931	0.0000	100.0
120		Tulsa	CUSA	-6.8017	0.0000	119.2
121		South Carolina	SEC	-6.8177	0.0000	101.9
122		Northern Arizona	BSky	-6.8807	0.0000	140.5
123		Penn St.	B10	-6.9153	0.0000	115.6
124		Appalachian St.	SC	-6.9191	0.0000	138.4
125		Cincinnati	BE	-7.2148	0.0000	121.1
126		American	Pat	-7.2573	0.0000	141.8
127	X	Brown	Ivy	-7.2836	0.0000	132.1
128		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-7.3712	0.0000	122.7
129		Lafayette	Pat	-7.3915	0.0000	140.5
130		Pacific	BW	-7.4348	0.0000	138.0
131		Georgia	SEC	-7.5293	0.0000	118.1
132	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-7.5325	0.0000	146.7
133		Missouri St.	MVC	-7.6297	0.0000	113.2
134		Cornell	Ivy	-7.6580	0.0000	146.0
135		Old Dominion	CAA	-7.6997	0.0000	133.2
136	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-7.8494	0.0000	151.9
137		Marshall	CUSA	-7.8574	0.0000	129.9
138		Tulane	CUSA	-8.0489	0.0000	128.4
139		Belmont	ASun	-8.0976	0.0000	161.3
140		Wagner	NEC	-8.2885	0.0000	155.4
141		DePaul	BE	-8.3603	0.0000	123.1
142		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-8.5042	0.0000	139.7
143		Fresno St.	WAC	-8.5756	0.0000	137.2
144		Wichita St.	MVC	-8.5959	0.0000	125.5
145		Delaware	CAA	-8.5981	0.0000	154.1
146		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-8.6743	0.0000	137.6
147		Rider	MAAC	-8.7023	0.0000	152.3
148	X	Portland St.	BSky	-8.7196	0.0000	165.1
149		NC Greensboro	SC	-9.1111	0.0000	156.1
150		Indiana St.	MVC	-9.2087	0.0000	140.2
151	X	East Tennessee St.	ASun	-9.2366	0.0000	157.4
152	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-9.2715	0.0000	165.2
153		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-9.5827	0.0000	144.0
154		St. John's	BE	-9.6795	0.0000	122.3
155		Richmond	A10	-9.8543	0.0000	148.0
156		UC Irvine	BW	-10.0894	0.0000	156.3
157		College of Charleston	SC	-10.3189	0.0000	164.4
158		Oakland	Sum	-10.4818	0.0000	175.8
159		Auburn	SEC	-10.5606	0.0000	140.7
160		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-10.5734	0.0000	165.0
161		Northern Iowa	MVC	-10.6690	0.0000	156.8
162		Yale	Ivy	-10.6716	0.0000	173.2
163		Iowa St.	B12	-10.9089	0.0000	138.7
164		Bradley	MVC	-10.9855	0.0000	147.3
165		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-11.0148	0.0000	184.7
166		New Orleans	SB	-11.0315	0.0000	172.5
167		Louisiana St.	SEC	-11.0522	0.0000	142.7
168		Colorado	B12	-11.0574	0.0000	148.1
169		St. Louis	A10	-11.0889	0.0000	151.0
170		William & Mary	CAA	-11.1047	0.0000	180.2
171		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-11.2975	0.0000	185.2
172		Sacred Heart	NEC	-11.2975	0.0000	193.2
173		Central Michigan	MAC	-11.3329	0.0000	175.1
174		Long Island	NEC	-11.3487	0.0000	181.5
175		Montana St.	BSky	-11.4666	0.0000	182.1
176		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-11.5573	0.0000	184.7
177		Santa Clara	WCC	-11.5684	0.0000	170.5
178		Fordham	A10	-11.8085	0.0000	160.4
179		Michigan	B10	-11.8195	0.0000	155.2
180		Jacksonville	ASun	-11.8901	0.0000	195.4
181		Murray St.	OVC	-11.9126	0.0000	196.3
182		Troy	SB	-11.9951	0.0000	179.9
183		Texas Christian	MWC	-12.1282	0.0000	171.1
184		Middle Tennessee	SB	-12.2084	0.0000	181.0
185		Quinnipiac	NEC	-12.4203	0.0000	206.9
186		Northeastern	CAA	-12.5967	0.0000	182.7
187		Bucknell	Pat	-12.7931	0.0000	197.0
188		Albany	AE	-12.8385	0.0000	208.7
189		Western Michigan	MAC	-12.8476	0.0000	200.3
190		Montana	BSky	-12.9234	0.0000	206.2
191		San Diego	WCC	-12.9656	0.0000	175.9
192		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-12.9983	0.0000	188.2
193		San Jose St.	WAC	-13.0443	0.0000	203.4
194		George Washington	A10	-13.1003	0.0000	181.6
195		Iowa	B10	-13.2216	0.0000	184.4
196		Fairfield	MAAC	-13.3148	0.0000	202.9
197		Colgate	Pat	-13.3279	0.0000	199.6
198		Air Force	MWC	-13.3791	0.0000	186.5
199		High Point	BSth	-13.4160	0.0000	210.9
200		Gardner Webb	ASun	-13.7021	0.0000	215.3
201		Weber St.	BSky	-13.7117	0.0000	211.0
202		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-13.7240	0.0000	220.1
203		North Dakota St.	Sum	-13.9822	0.0000	206.7
204		NC Wilmington	CAA	-14.0335	0.0000	203.6
205	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-14.0683	0.0000	236.9
206		Denver	SB	-14.1160	0.0000	216.4
207		Youngstown St.	Horz	-14.1798	0.0000	191.4
208		Central Connecticut	NEC	-14.3864	0.0000	224.9
209		Liberty	BSth	-14.4810	0.0000	222.1
210		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-14.5214	0.0000	234.6
211		Colorado St.	MWC	-14.7900	0.0000	183.5
212		McNeese St.	Slnd	-14.8058	0.0000	227.4
213		Toledo	MAC	-14.8670	0.0000	212.1
214		Hartford	AE	-14.9150	0.0000	219.5
215		Lamar	Slnd	-14.9819	0.0000	228.0
216		East Carolina	CUSA	-14.9890	0.0000	218.2
217		Drexel	CAA	-15.0202	0.0000	206.7
218		Loyola MD	MAAC	-15.0780	0.0000	222.4
219		Vermont	AE	-15.2510	0.0000	232.3
220		Lipscomb	ASun	-15.3102	0.0000	238.4
221		Columbia	Ivy	-15.3149	0.0000	234.4
222		Tennessee St.	OVC	-15.3386	0.0000	239.1
223		Bowling Green	MAC	-15.3747	0.0000	213.5
224		Buffalo	MAC	-15.4003	0.0000	210.6
225		Wofford	SC	-15.5068	0.0000	220.5
226		Pepperdine	WCC	-15.5111	0.0000	208.7
227		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-15.6133	0.0000	235.6
228		La Salle	A10	-15.6272	0.0000	211.8
229		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-15.6647	0.0000	229.1
230		Arkansas St.	SB	-15.6796	0.0000	231.1
231		Binghamton	AE	-15.7097	0.0000	247.2
232		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-15.9265	0.0000	243.2
233		Chicago St.	ind	-15.9342	0.0000	221.6
234		Delaware St.	MEAC	-15.9501	0.0000	239.7
235		Northwestern	B10	-16.0466	0.0000	201.4
236		Northern Colorado	BSky	-16.0575	0.0000	248.4
237		Iona	MAAC	-16.1282	0.0000	230.0
238		Rutgers	BE	-16.1288	0.0000	190.8
239		Cal Poly	BW	-16.4526	0.0000	227.0
240		Towson	CAA	-16.5372	0.0000	243.4
241		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-16.5923	0.0000	247.5
242		Elon	SC	-16.6519	0.0000	238.2
243		Wyoming	MWC	-16.6588	0.0000	206.6
244		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-16.6645	0.0000	227.0
245		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-16.8590	0.0000	254.5
246		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-16.8781	0.0000	247.8
247		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-16.9343	0.0000	271.3
248		Harvard	Ivy	-16.9410	0.0000	247.9
249		Manhattan	MAAC	-17.0503	0.0000	249.5
250		Lehigh	Pat	-17.0715	0.0000	250.3
251		Hawaii	WAC	-17.0936	0.0000	244.6
252		St. Bonaventure	A10	-17.2005	0.0000	224.7
253		Army	Pat	-17.4686	0.0000	251.5
254		Hofstra	CAA	-17.6543	0.0000	250.6
255		Morehead St.	OVC	-17.7531	0.0000	263.9
256		Utah Valley St.	ind	-17.7778	0.0000	271.6
257		Western Illinois	Sum	-17.8497	0.0000	252.3
258		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-17.8914	0.0000	253.8
259		Boston University	AE	-17.9618	0.0000	260.7
260		Campbell	ASun	-18.2276	0.0000	277.6
261		Oregon St.	P10	-18.2546	0.0000	214.8
262		Navy	Pat	-18.3903	0.0000	269.8
263		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-18.5409	0.0000	253.3
264		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-18.5519	0.0000	279.4
265		Mercer	ASun	-18.7203	0.0000	285.6
266		St. Francis NY	NEC	-18.8135	0.0000	277.2
267		Evansville	MVC	-18.8239	0.0000	233.9
268		Southern Utah	Sum	-18.8306	0.0000	264.5
269		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-18.8932	0.0000	266.9
270		San Francisco	WCC	-18.9412	0.0000	251.3
271		Southern	SWAC	-18.9515	0.0000	281.4
272		Dartmouth	Ivy	-19.0079	0.0000	279.5
273		Florida International	SB	-19.0728	0.0000	253.3
274		Portland	WCC	-19.1315	0.0000	259.1
275		UC Davis	BW	-19.1448	0.0000	267.5
276		Jackson St.	SWAC	-19.2185	0.0000	281.3
277		Eastern Washington	BSky	-19.2806	0.0000	275.4
278		Stetson	ASun	-19.2988	0.0000	276.2
279		New Hampshire	AE	-19.4010	0.0000	285.2
280		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-19.7545	0.0000	264.4
281		Savannah St.	ind	-19.9292	0.0000	288.6
282		Florida Atlantic	SB	-19.9874	0.0000	263.7
283		Georgia St.	CAA	-20.0210	0.0000	278.6
284		Ball St.	MAC	-20.0732	0.0000	268.1
285		Detroit	Horz	-20.1000	0.0000	267.5
286		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-20.1093	0.0000	286.8
287		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-20.1217	0.0000	281.4
288		Samford	OVC	-20.2200	0.0000	295.1
289		Coppin St.	MEAC	-20.2563	0.0000	282.0
290		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-20.2577	0.0000	308.4
291		Texas St.	Slnd	-20.3876	0.0000	288.8
292		St. Peter's	MAAC	-20.3932	0.0000	279.8
293		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-20.4588	0.0000	298.5
294		Texas Pan American	ind	-20.5515	0.0000	308.0
295		Centenary	Sum	-20.5808	0.0000	283.9
296		South Dakota St.	Sum	-20.6213	0.0000	288.4
297		Princeton	Ivy	-20.7468	0.0000	300.4
298		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-20.7529	0.0000	308.7
299		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-20.7567	0.0000	302.9
300		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-20.8663	0.0000	306.6
301		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-21.0361	0.0000	302.5
302		Long Beach St.	BW	-21.2544	0.0000	288.5
303		Texas Southern	SWAC	-21.3549	0.0000	307.3
304		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-21.5517	0.0000	297.7
305		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-21.5746	0.0000	307.9
306		Rice	CUSA	-21.6143	0.0000	277.8
307		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-21.6292	0.0000	289.3
308		Northern Illinois	MAC	-21.6677	0.0000	288.8
309		St. Francis PA	NEC	-21.6879	0.0000	304.5
310		Florida A&M	MEAC	-21.7904	0.0000	301.9
311		Western Carolina	SC	-21.8255	0.0000	294.1
312		Idaho St.	BSky	-21.9114	0.0000	307.2
313		Monmouth	NEC	-22.1609	0.0000	311.1
314		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-22.2612	0.0000	305.7
315		Maine	AE	-22.3626	0.0000	313.3
316		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-22.4368	0.0000	325.9
317		Charleston Southern	BSth	-22.4488	0.0000	315.7
318		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-22.4611	0.0000	305.4
319		Idaho	WAC	-22.5763	0.0000	306.0
320		Radford	BSth	-22.6369	0.0000	318.7
321		Stony Brook	AE	-22.6987	0.0000	321.7
322		Longwood	ind	-23.0066	0.0000	329.4
323		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-23.5018	0.0000	314.5
324		UC Riverside	BW	-23.5587	0.0000	300.3
325		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-23.7001	0.0000	334.8
326		Presbyterian	ind	-23.7511	0.0000	328.3
327		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-23.8208	0.0000	302.8
328		Sacramento St.	BSky	-23.8621	0.0000	325.3
329		Furman	SC	-23.8738	0.0000	318.4
330		North Carolina Central	ind	-23.8791	0.0000	322.3
331		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.9223	0.0000	337.0
332		Howard	MEAC	-24.0521	0.0000	325.4
333		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-24.1075	0.0000	340.6
334		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-24.1210	0.0000	337.0
335		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-24.2155	0.0000	334.1
336		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-24.3269	0.0000	334.8
337		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-24.3543	0.0000	333.7
338		Canisius	MAAC	-24.3893	0.0000	323.8
339		Grambling	SWAC	-25.1760	0.0000	339.8
340		The Citadel	SC	-25.5383	0.0000	328.7
341		North Florida	ASun	-25.6069	0.0000	337.9

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com