Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Dec 15, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	Duke	ACC	8.8014	1.0000	1.8
2	X	West Virginia	BE	8.6517	1.0000	5.6
3		North Carolina	ACC	8.5585	1.0000	2.2
4	X	Kansas	B12	7.8426	1.0000	5.6
5		Texas	B12	6.9237	1.0000	4.6
6		Tennessee	SEC	6.0293	1.0000	8.8
7	X	Mississippi	SEC	5.8757	1.0000	14.1
8	X	UCLA	P10	5.8160	1.0000	12.7
9	X	Xavier	A10	5.6136	1.0000	12.7
10		Marquette	BE	5.5175	1.0000	15.8
11	X	Memphis	CUSA	5.5115	1.0000	17.3
12		Rhode Island	A10	5.3303	1.0000	14.6
13		Michigan St.	B10	5.1681	1.0000	14.1
14		Indiana	B10	4.7058	1.0000	22.3
15		Pittsburgh	BE	4.6380	1.0000	17.7
16		Arizona	P10	4.6223	1.0000	12.1
17		Clemson	ACC	4.3035	1.0000	20.3
18		Georgetown	BE	4.2832	1.0000	24.0
19		Miami FL	ACC	4.2624	1.0000	16.8
20	X	Butler	Horz	4.1037	1.0000	29.8
21	X	Wisconsin	B10	3.7285	0.9999	27.9
22		Texas A&M	B12	3.7213	0.9999	24.8
23	X	Gonzaga	WCC	3.7123	0.9999	26.8
24		Florida St.	ACC	3.5643	0.9998	21.4
25		Missouri	B12	3.3484	0.9996	26.8
26		Washington St.	P10	3.1964	0.9993	27.0
27		Vanderbilt	SEC	2.6930	0.9965	26.8
28		California	P10	2.5822	0.9951	28.3
29		Southern California	P10	2.4200	0.9922	36.3
30		Arkansas	SEC	2.2704	0.9884	30.1
31		Stanford	P10	2.2452	0.9876	33.6
32		Providence	BE	2.2143	0.9866	33.6
33		Dayton	A10	2.1883	0.9857	31.7
34		Baylor	B12	1.8539	0.9681	35.5
35		Oregon	P10	1.8237	0.9659	32.2
36		Notre Dame	BE	1.7680	0.9615	42.9
37		St. Mary's	WCC	1.3770	0.9157	49.4
38		Duquesne	A10	1.3590	0.9129	44.6
39	X	Holy Cross	Pat	1.3542	0.9122	44.3
40		Creighton	MVC	1.0259	0.8475	48.4
41		Brigham Young	MWC	1.0039	0.8423	50.4
42	X	Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.9883	0.8385	51.4
43		Minnesota	B10	0.8738	0.8089	44.0
44	X	Drake	MVC	0.7821	0.7829	51.9
45	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.5564	0.7110	38.4
46		Louisville	BE	0.5399	0.7054	44.2
47	X	George Mason	CAA	0.5247	0.7001	56.7
48		New Mexico	MWC	0.3958	0.6539	53.6
49	X	South Alabama	SB	0.1925	0.5763	57.5
50	X	Miami OH	MAC	0.1251	0.5498	55.2
51		Boston College	ACC	-0.1868	0.4259	44.5
52		Oklahoma	B12	-0.2470	0.4025	50.5
53		Syracuse	BE	-0.4546	0.3247	44.3
54		Massachusetts	A10	-0.5990	0.2746	58.7
55		Kent St.	MAC	-0.6477	0.2586	65.8
56		Illinois	B10	-0.7656	0.2220	54.5
57		UAB	CUSA	-0.8245	0.2048	59.6
58		Florida	SEC	-0.8331	0.2024	62.3
59	X	Winthrop	BSth	-0.8891	0.1870	71.4
60		Villanova	BE	-0.9275	0.1768	60.2
61		Western Kentucky	SB	-0.9726	0.1654	72.9
62		South Carolina	SEC	-0.9802	0.1635	58.5
63		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-0.9861	0.1620	60.1
64		Arizona St.	P10	-1.2192	0.1114	57.9
65		Valparaiso	Horz	-1.2839	0.0996	67.4
66		North Texas	SB	-1.3170	0.0939	74.3
67		San Diego St.	MWC	-1.3556	0.0876	57.7
68		James Madison	CAA	-1.4632	0.0717	77.0
69		Ohio St.	B10	-2.0602	0.0197	66.4
70		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-2.0705	0.0192	78.3
71	X	UC Santa Barbara	BW	-2.0846	0.0186	81.3
72		Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-2.1104	0.0174	81.3
73		Connecticut	BE	-2.1145	0.0172	60.1
74		Ohio	MAC	-2.1451	0.0160	74.2
75		Georgia Southern	SC	-2.3706	0.0089	89.6
76		South Florida	BE	-2.3708	0.0089	75.3
77		Purdue	B10	-2.6557	0.0040	79.7
78	X	Siena	MAAC	-2.9568	0.0016	90.2
79	X	IUPUI	Sum	-3.0103	0.0013	101.1
80		Virginia	ACC	-3.0346	0.0012	77.2
81	X	Davidson	SC	-3.0730	0.0011	105.0
82		Texas Tech	B12	-3.1530	0.0008	71.4
83		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-3.1551	0.0008	79.7
84		Cleveland St.	Horz	-3.1639	0.0008	86.0
85		Nebraska	B12	-3.4272	0.0003	87.5
86		Houston	CUSA	-3.5140	0.0002	86.3
87		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-3.6764	0.0001	97.4
88		Kansas St.	B12	-3.8241	0.0001	75.4
89		Kentucky	SEC	-3.8458	0.0001	79.5
90		Virginia Tech	ACC	-3.8708	0.0001	85.7
91	X	Hampton	MEAC	-3.8882	0.0001	100.9
92		Utah	MWC	-4.0845	0.0000	88.9
93		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-4.1724	0.0000	105.9
94		North Carolina St.	ACC	-4.2483	0.0000	93.0
95		Southern Illinois	MVC	-4.2789	0.0000	92.3
96		Temple	A10	-4.3299	0.0000	94.0
97		Maryland	ACC	-4.4351	0.0000	78.1
98		Illinois St.	MVC	-4.4470	0.0000	94.9
99		Nevada	WAC	-4.4613	0.0000	103.7
100		Niagara	MAAC	-4.4759	0.0000	111.1
101		Alabama	SEC	-4.5453	0.0000	85.2
102		Saint Joseph's	A10	-4.5920	0.0000	85.6
103		Pacific	BW	-4.6244	0.0000	107.6
104		Georgia	SEC	-4.7200	0.0000	86.4
105		Mississippi St.	SEC	-4.7208	0.0000	86.0
106	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-4.8190	0.0000	103.3
107		Georgia Tech	ACC	-5.0189	0.0000	93.1
108		Louisiana St.	SEC	-5.0716	0.0000	92.2
109		Oklahoma St.	B12	-5.2038	0.0000	85.7
110	X	Portland St.	BSky	-5.5013	0.0000	124.2
111		Morgan St.	MEAC	-5.7033	0.0000	127.6
112		Bradley	MVC	-5.7439	0.0000	102.0
113	X	Brown	Ivy	-5.9761	0.0000	120.2
114		Old Dominion	CAA	-6.1394	0.0000	107.3
115		Akron	MAC	-6.2792	0.0000	115.2
116		Central Michigan	MAC	-6.2837	0.0000	120.8
117		Missouri St.	MVC	-6.3841	0.0000	109.9
118	X	MD Baltimore County	AE	-6.4409	0.0000	134.5
119		Northern Arizona	BSky	-6.5268	0.0000	135.2
120		Wright St.	Horz	-6.5530	0.0000	125.8
121		Central Florida	CUSA	-6.6350	0.0000	119.0
122		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-6.6658	0.0000	122.5
123		Oral Roberts	Sum	-6.8132	0.0000	136.2
124		St. John's	BE	-6.9784	0.0000	101.1
125		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-7.2813	0.0000	131.8
126		Marist	MAAC	-7.3051	0.0000	131.1
127		Charlotte	A10	-7.4128	0.0000	127.6
128		Seton Hall	BE	-7.4359	0.0000	107.4
129		Northeastern	CAA	-7.5265	0.0000	126.3
130		Boise St.	WAC	-7.6323	0.0000	143.4
131		Chattanooga	SC	-7.8038	0.0000	139.6
132		Long Island	NEC	-8.3665	0.0000	150.8
133		Marshall	CUSA	-8.4118	0.0000	134.4
134		Albany	AE	-8.4184	0.0000	159.5
135		Santa Clara	WCC	-8.5267	0.0000	141.0
136		Penn St.	B10	-8.5565	0.0000	124.0
137		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-8.8912	0.0000	147.7
138	X	East Tennessee St.	ASun	-8.9023	0.0000	158.3
139		St. Louis	A10	-8.9577	0.0000	127.9
140		Wagner	NEC	-8.9709	0.0000	164.4
141		Montana	BSky	-9.0593	0.0000	158.0
142		Wichita St.	MVC	-9.1705	0.0000	132.7
143		Northern Iowa	MVC	-9.3688	0.0000	148.9
144		Wake Forest	ACC	-9.4453	0.0000	138.2
145		New Orleans	SB	-9.6298	0.0000	158.7
146		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-9.6551	0.0000	160.3
147		Fresno St.	WAC	-9.8224	0.0000	154.3
148		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-9.8606	0.0000	172.5
149		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-9.9122	0.0000	146.6
150		NC Wilmington	CAA	-10.1468	0.0000	157.2
151		Washington	P10	-10.1983	0.0000	129.3
152		Cornell	Ivy	-10.2702	0.0000	173.4
153		Rider	MAAC	-10.3636	0.0000	173.9
154		Montana St.	BSky	-10.4255	0.0000	172.0
155	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-10.4638	0.0000	177.6
156		Auburn	SEC	-10.5084	0.0000	141.8
157		Tulane	CUSA	-10.5904	0.0000	155.2
158		Colgate	Pat	-10.8709	0.0000	173.9
159		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-10.8945	0.0000	178.5
160		Michigan	B10	-10.9270	0.0000	138.8
161		Yale	Ivy	-11.0125	0.0000	175.9
162	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-11.1115	0.0000	200.3
163		Western Michigan	MAC	-11.1997	0.0000	170.8
164		Detroit	Horz	-11.2040	0.0000	170.0
165		North Dakota St.	Sum	-11.2221	0.0000	185.1
166		San Diego	WCC	-11.2358	0.0000	153.2
167		Fordham	A10	-11.2538	0.0000	157.1
168		Texas Christian	MWC	-11.2564	0.0000	151.7
169		East Carolina	CUSA	-11.3132	0.0000	171.4
170		Austin Peay	OVC	-11.3654	0.0000	194.2
171		Elon	SC	-11.4166	0.0000	183.6
172		Oakland	Sum	-11.4787	0.0000	184.5
173		Pepperdine	WCC	-11.6663	0.0000	168.2
174	X	Murray St.	OVC	-11.6772	0.0000	197.6
175		Belmont	ASun	-11.6967	0.0000	203.6
176		Indiana St.	MVC	-11.7472	0.0000	156.1
177		Colorado St.	MWC	-11.7583	0.0000	152.6
178		Lafayette	Pat	-11.7592	0.0000	187.8
179		Bucknell	Pat	-11.8718	0.0000	184.7
180		Troy	SB	-11.9164	0.0000	176.9
181		Iowa St.	B12	-11.9773	0.0000	146.2
182		American	Pat	-12.0771	0.0000	185.4
183		UC Irvine	BW	-12.1092	0.0000	179.0
184		Harvard	Ivy	-12.1483	0.0000	187.1
185		Toledo	MAC	-12.2138	0.0000	178.9
186		NC Asheville	BSth	-12.3408	0.0000	193.2
187		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-12.3923	0.0000	179.7
188		College of Charleston	SC	-12.6994	0.0000	193.3
189		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-12.8504	0.0000	198.0
190		McNeese St.	Slnd	-13.0347	0.0000	200.6
191		DePaul	BE	-13.1820	0.0000	159.9
192		Youngstown St.	Horz	-13.2202	0.0000	181.6
193		George Washington	A10	-13.2341	0.0000	187.6
194		Oregon St.	P10	-13.3420	0.0000	169.0
195		Manhattan	MAAC	-13.3557	0.0000	213.6
196		New Hampshire	AE	-13.3877	0.0000	213.8
197		Colorado	B12	-13.4543	0.0000	169.4
198		NC Greensboro	SC	-13.4645	0.0000	208.4
199		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-13.5264	0.0000	205.6
200		Utah St.	WAC	-13.6522	0.0000	210.3
201		Gardner Webb	ASun	-13.7058	0.0000	219.3
202		Jacksonville	ASun	-13.8687	0.0000	218.7
203		Delaware	CAA	-14.0716	0.0000	203.7
204		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-14.1413	0.0000	211.9
205		Richmond	A10	-14.4708	0.0000	200.2
206		Drexel	CAA	-14.5670	0.0000	202.9
207		William & Mary	CAA	-14.5689	0.0000	208.0
208		Tulsa	CUSA	-14.6262	0.0000	202.4
209		Quinnipiac	NEC	-14.7122	0.0000	230.9
210		Liberty	BSth	-14.7563	0.0000	221.9
211		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-14.7768	0.0000	227.9
212		Portland	WCC	-14.8031	0.0000	209.8
213		Wofford	SC	-14.8729	0.0000	218.7
214		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-14.8747	0.0000	215.2
215		Hawaii	WAC	-14.9413	0.0000	221.9
216		Boston University	AE	-15.0187	0.0000	227.2
217		St. Peter's	MAAC	-15.0240	0.0000	225.3
218		Mercer	ASun	-15.1005	0.0000	243.2
219		Appalachian St.	SC	-15.1773	0.0000	230.4
220		UC Davis	BW	-15.2761	0.0000	225.9
221		Cal Poly	BW	-15.3291	0.0000	215.6
222		St. Bonaventure	A10	-15.3794	0.0000	206.6
223		Centenary	Sum	-15.4257	0.0000	232.0
224		Iona	MAAC	-15.4337	0.0000	230.1
225		Rutgers	BE	-15.4357	0.0000	180.8
226		Lehigh	Pat	-15.4502	0.0000	230.9
227		Air Force	MWC	-15.4990	0.0000	202.7
228		Evansville	MVC	-15.5066	0.0000	202.4
229		Buffalo	MAC	-15.5535	0.0000	212.4
230		Northwestern	B10	-15.5589	0.0000	193.2
231		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-15.6639	0.0000	248.8
232		High Point	BSth	-15.7013	0.0000	235.8
233		Columbia	Ivy	-15.7176	0.0000	237.3
234		Hofstra	CAA	-15.8622	0.0000	221.8
235		Utah Valley St.	ind	-16.1442	0.0000	259.6
236		Hartford	AE	-16.1506	0.0000	231.1
237		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-16.1727	0.0000	247.0
238		San Francisco	WCC	-16.4416	0.0000	218.4
239		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-16.5713	0.0000	246.6
240		Tennessee St.	OVC	-16.6968	0.0000	252.7
241		Loyola MD	MAAC	-16.7152	0.0000	242.5
242		Cincinnati	BE	-16.8320	0.0000	198.5
243		Sacred Heart	NEC	-16.8594	0.0000	250.1
244		Northern Colorado	BSky	-16.9168	0.0000	255.1
245		La Salle	A10	-16.9393	0.0000	228.3
246		Weber St.	BSky	-17.0401	0.0000	248.9
247		Bowling Green	MAC	-17.1165	0.0000	232.6
248		St. Francis NY	NEC	-17.1684	0.0000	255.2
249		Princeton	Ivy	-17.2891	0.0000	258.8
250		St. Francis PA	NEC	-17.2921	0.0000	259.2
251		Texas Southern	SWAC	-17.4339	0.0000	257.4
252		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-17.4393	0.0000	257.6
253		Iowa	B10	-17.5025	0.0000	220.0
254		Texas St.	Slnd	-17.5124	0.0000	247.9
255		Samford	OVC	-17.6515	0.0000	271.6
256		Wyoming	MWC	-17.7288	0.0000	228.0
257		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-17.7704	0.0000	258.2
258		Dartmouth	Ivy	-17.8396	0.0000	263.4
259		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-17.8842	0.0000	265.1
260		San Jose St.	WAC	-17.8889	0.0000	265.5
261		Southern Utah	Sum	-17.9038	0.0000	258.2
262		Lipscomb	ASun	-17.9127	0.0000	271.3
263		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-17.9499	0.0000	232.9
264		Florida Atlantic	SB	-17.9696	0.0000	243.8
265		Fairfield	MAAC	-18.0231	0.0000	256.9
266		Central Connecticut	NEC	-18.0434	0.0000	267.1
267		Ball St.	MAC	-18.0645	0.0000	247.8
268		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-18.1024	0.0000	256.0
269		Chicago St.	ind	-18.2132	0.0000	256.6
270		Delaware St.	MEAC	-18.2139	0.0000	264.0
271		Stetson	ASun	-18.2271	0.0000	270.0
272		Georgia St.	CAA	-18.3085	0.0000	246.6
273		Vermont	AE	-18.3924	0.0000	269.5
274		Towson	CAA	-18.5265	0.0000	256.8
275		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-18.5532	0.0000	271.3
276		South Dakota St.	Sum	-18.8443	0.0000	274.5
277		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-18.9300	0.0000	288.2
278		Army	Pat	-19.1266	0.0000	270.6
279		Florida International	SB	-19.1270	0.0000	251.2
280		Southern	SWAC	-19.1656	0.0000	280.0
281		UC Riverside	BW	-19.2503	0.0000	250.9
282		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-19.3764	0.0000	284.5
283		Denver	SB	-19.4469	0.0000	270.7
284		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-19.4902	0.0000	260.8
285		Eastern Washington	BSky	-19.5347	0.0000	277.9
286		Coppin St.	MEAC	-19.5371	0.0000	269.1
287		Middle Tennessee	SB	-19.6972	0.0000	263.4
288		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-19.7166	0.0000	289.7
289		Lamar	Slnd	-20.0489	0.0000	283.5
290		Long Beach St.	BW	-20.0860	0.0000	279.7
291		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-20.1330	0.0000	299.3
292		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-20.2014	0.0000	264.2
293		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-20.2037	0.0000	295.1
294		Maine	AE	-20.2807	0.0000	290.6
295		Binghamton	AE	-20.6342	0.0000	303.6
296		Monmouth	NEC	-20.8570	0.0000	296.0
297		Arkansas St.	SB	-20.9130	0.0000	287.7
298		Navy	Pat	-21.0193	0.0000	297.6
299		Grambling	SWAC	-21.3033	0.0000	310.3
300		Morehead St.	OVC	-21.3817	0.0000	302.9
301		Rice	CUSA	-21.3861	0.0000	275.5
302		Savannah St.	ind	-21.3955	0.0000	303.3
303		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-21.4161	0.0000	298.9
304		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-21.4244	0.0000	283.4
305		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-21.4372	0.0000	312.6
306		Furman	SC	-21.5515	0.0000	299.8
307		Stony Brook	AE	-21.5887	0.0000	308.9
308		Campbell	ASun	-21.6792	0.0000	314.9
309		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-21.9286	0.0000	280.4
310		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-22.1038	0.0000	321.9
311		Sacramento St.	BSky	-22.1391	0.0000	307.2
312		Charleston Southern	BSth	-22.2588	0.0000	311.7
313		Western Carolina	SC	-22.2954	0.0000	304.3
314		Radford	BSth	-22.3212	0.0000	307.7
315		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-22.3955	0.0000	316.5
316		Jackson St.	SWAC	-22.6407	0.0000	314.5
317		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-22.6572	0.0000	328.8
318		Texas Pan American	ind	-22.6962	0.0000	328.8
319		Western Illinois	Sum	-22.6976	0.0000	307.4
320		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-22.8652	0.0000	324.9
321		Longwood	ind	-23.0239	0.0000	325.6
322		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-23.0483	0.0000	319.4
323		Idaho St.	BSky	-23.1456	0.0000	318.9
324		Howard	MEAC	-23.1702	0.0000	313.7
325		Idaho	WAC	-23.2945	0.0000	317.4
326		North Carolina Central	ind	-23.3179	0.0000	321.0
327		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-23.3336	0.0000	305.4
328		Canisius	MAAC	-23.4061	0.0000	319.8
329		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-23.5363	0.0000	324.2
330		Northern Illinois	MAC	-23.5703	0.0000	308.1
331		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-23.5731	0.0000	332.5
332		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-23.6803	0.0000	340.8
333		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-23.8435	0.0000	331.4
334		Presbyterian	ind	-23.8898	0.0000	327.0
335		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-24.0492	0.0000	323.0
336		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-24.3052	0.0000	338.9
337		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-24.4073	0.0000	335.3
338		The Citadel	SC	-24.4521	0.0000	320.6
339		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-24.7138	0.0000	336.7
340		Florida A&M	MEAC	-24.9796	0.0000	328.0
341		North Florida	ASun	-25.3510	0.0000	339.3

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com