Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Nov 13, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	Duke	ACC	8.3846	1.0000	1.5
2		Clemson	ACC	7.3065	1.0000	4.8
3		North Carolina	ACC	6.8014	1.0000	4.3
4	X	Gonzaga	WCC	5.7581	1.0000	10.1
5	X	Brigham Young	MWC	5.4873	1.0000	16.3
6		UCLA	P10	5.3877	1.0000	12.8
7	X	South Carolina	SEC	5.1810	1.0000	16.0
8		Mississippi St.	SEC	4.9096	1.0000	14.4
9	X	Kansas	B12	4.9048	1.0000	15.7
10		Oklahoma	B12	4.8780	1.0000	13.9
11	X	Michigan St.	B10	4.8657	1.0000	17.1
12		Oklahoma St.	B12	4.8391	1.0000	13.3
13	X	Stanford	P10	4.8302	1.0000	18.9
14		Tennessee	SEC	4.3585	1.0000	15.4
15		Missouri	B12	4.0031	1.0000	20.3
16	X	Memphis	CUSA	3.6420	0.9999	25.3
17		Florida	SEC	3.6349	0.9999	23.7
18	X	Notre Dame	BE	3.3928	0.9997	26.3
19		Wisconsin	B10	3.3158	0.9995	29.0
20		Texas A&M	B12	3.2747	0.9995	22.1
21		Louisville	BE	3.1637	0.9992	28.9
22		UAB	CUSA	3.1065	0.9991	31.8
23		Georgia	SEC	3.0996	0.9990	28.2
24		Pittsburgh	BE	2.9441	0.9984	26.6
25		Georgetown	BE	2.7882	0.9973	30.5
26		Texas	B12	2.6802	0.9963	24.5
27	X	Butler	Horz	2.6056	0.9954	34.9
28		Oregon	P10	2.3785	0.9913	30.2
29		Vanderbilt	SEC	2.3234	0.9899	29.6
30	X	Creighton	MVC	2.1481	0.9841	40.5
31		West Virginia	BE	2.0124	0.9779	39.0
32		Kansas St.	B12	1.7225	0.9575	36.8
33		Syracuse	BE	1.6581	0.9514	31.9
34		Xavier	A10	1.6328	0.9487	41.9
35		Southern Illinois	MVC	1.6000	0.9452	39.5
36		Virginia	ACC	1.5814	0.9431	36.9
37		Alabama	SEC	1.5154	0.9352	31.6
38		Indiana	B10	1.2760	0.8990	41.1
39	X	Holy Cross	Pat	1.2424	0.8930	40.4
40		Arizona	P10	1.2123	0.8873	32.4
41		Arkansas	SEC	1.1790	0.8808	41.0
42		New Mexico	MWC	1.0217	0.8465	45.8
43	X	Western Kentucky	SB	0.8256	0.7955	52.4
44		Ohio St.	B10	0.5392	0.7051	45.8
45	X	Duquesne	A10	0.5387	0.7050	58.4
46		Houston	CUSA	0.5360	0.7040	47.4
47		Florida St.	ACC	0.5252	0.7003	43.1
48		Villanova	BE	0.4632	0.6784	49.5
49		Illinois	B10	0.2470	0.5975	42.2
50		Maryland	ACC	-0.0637	0.4746	46.1
51		Washington St.	P10	-0.1244	0.4505	56.7
52		San Diego St.	MWC	-0.2267	0.4103	51.1
53		Connecticut	BE	-0.2528	0.4002	48.5
54	X	Nevada	WAC	-0.6528	0.2570	63.1
55		Northern Iowa	MVC	-0.6557	0.2560	62.0
56		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-0.9106	0.1812	60.8
57		Michigan	B10	-0.9124	0.1808	54.9
58		Minnesota	B10	-1.1048	0.1346	63.6
59		Wake Forest	ACC	-1.1661	0.1218	67.1
60		Rhode Island	A10	-1.1946	0.1161	65.5
61		Saint Joseph's	A10	-1.3648	0.0862	62.0
62		Louisiana St.	SEC	-1.4310	0.0762	58.0
63		Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	-1.4453	0.0742	59.4
64		North Carolina St.	ACC	-1.5129	0.0651	58.8
65		Washington	P10	-1.6542	0.0490	69.4
66	X	Miami OH	MAC	-1.7960	0.0362	76.0
67		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-2.0549	0.0199	84.3
68	X	Drexel	CAA	-2.1381	0.0163	77.1
69		Mississippi	SEC	-2.1480	0.0159	66.6
70		Massachusetts	A10	-2.1973	0.0140	64.4
71		Manhattan	MAAC	-2.2541	0.0121	90.0
72	X	Belmont	ASun	-2.3228	0.0101	84.7
73		Missouri St.	MVC	-2.4439	0.0073	75.4
74		DePaul	BE	-2.7313	0.0032	72.6
75		Marquette	BE	-2.8311	0.0023	71.6
76		George Mason	CAA	-3.0447	0.0012	83.4
77	X	Winthrop	BSth	-3.0638	0.0011	96.4
78		Old Dominion	CAA	-3.1891	0.0007	85.3
79		Kent St.	MAC	-3.2360	0.0006	89.2
80		Utah	MWC	-3.3624	0.0004	78.1
81		Fordham	A10	-3.4247	0.0003	79.2
82		Iowa	B10	-3.4412	0.0003	78.9
83	X	Montana	BSky	-3.5033	0.0002	100.1
84		Bucknell	Pat	-3.7014	0.0001	86.9
85		Providence	BE	-3.7211	0.0001	81.1
86		Purdue	B10	-3.9225	0.0000	84.0
87	X	UC Santa Barbara	BW	-3.9963	0.0000	106.3
88		Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-4.0747	0.0000	99.4
89	X	Siena	MAAC	-4.0947	0.0000	100.5
90		Akron	MAC	-4.1186	0.0000	102.8
91	X	Hampton	MEAC	-4.1970	0.0000	106.5
92		George Washington	A10	-4.2550	0.0000	91.2
93		Air Force	MWC	-4.2589	0.0000	92.8
94		California	P10	-4.3369	0.0000	85.0
95		Central Florida	CUSA	-4.3429	0.0000	103.1
96		Ohio	MAC	-4.4127	0.0000	96.9
97		South Alabama	SB	-4.5137	0.0000	102.4
98		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-4.5233	0.0000	103.2
99		Gardner Webb	ASun	-4.6247	0.0000	115.8
100		Baylor	B12	-4.6848	0.0000	90.7
101		Texas Christian	MWC	-4.7234	0.0000	96.4
102		Miami FL	ACC	-4.7576	0.0000	87.1
103	X	Davidson	SC	-5.1071	0.0000	122.3
104		St. Louis	A10	-5.3509	0.0000	97.9
105		San Diego	WCC	-5.4397	0.0000	111.6
106	X	Oral Roberts	Sum	-5.4524	0.0000	122.4
107		Tulane	CUSA	-5.4783	0.0000	107.0
108		Temple	A10	-5.5285	0.0000	101.3
109		Boston College	ACC	-5.5710	0.0000	90.7
110		Kentucky	SEC	-5.6729	0.0000	85.8
111		Samford	OVC	-5.7956	0.0000	128.4
112		Bowling Green	MAC	-6.0882	0.0000	121.7
113		Texas Tech	B12	-6.1908	0.0000	100.4
114		Toledo	MAC	-6.2906	0.0000	122.3
115		Seton Hall	BE	-6.3230	0.0000	105.7
116		NC Greensboro	SC	-6.4588	0.0000	136.4
117	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-6.5427	0.0000	134.4
118		St. Mary's	WCC	-6.6103	0.0000	126.1
119	X	Brown	Ivy	-6.6832	0.0000	131.8
120		Pacific	BW	-6.6902	0.0000	134.3
121		Bradley	MVC	-6.7265	0.0000	117.2
122		New Mexico St.	WAC	-6.8126	0.0000	124.5
123		Northern Arizona	BSky	-6.8506	0.0000	134.7
124		Charlotte	A10	-6.9272	0.0000	114.7
125		San Francisco	WCC	-7.0706	0.0000	129.8
126	X	Albany	AE	-7.1553	0.0000	143.2
127		Virginia Tech	ACC	-7.1906	0.0000	114.7
128		Hofstra	CAA	-7.2154	0.0000	124.7
129		NC Wilmington	CAA	-7.2542	0.0000	128.9
130		Santa Clara	WCC	-7.4900	0.0000	133.6
131		Hawaii	WAC	-7.4986	0.0000	134.8
132		Dayton	A10	-7.6245	0.0000	111.8
133		Northeastern	CAA	-7.7299	0.0000	132.8
134		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-7.9310	0.0000	136.7
135		Detroit	Horz	-7.9804	0.0000	140.5
136	X	Texas Arlington	Slnd	-8.0126	0.0000	150.7
137		Wright St.	Horz	-8.1036	0.0000	139.7
138		Marist	MAAC	-8.4260	0.0000	150.9
139		James Madison	CAA	-8.4268	0.0000	142.3
140		Georgia Tech	ACC	-8.4897	0.0000	123.9
141		Utah St.	WAC	-8.5091	0.0000	149.3
142		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-8.6027	0.0000	145.3
143		St. John's	BE	-8.6764	0.0000	125.8
144		Vermont	AE	-8.6841	0.0000	157.9
145		Towson	CAA	-8.7073	0.0000	149.3
146		Murray St.	OVC	-9.0859	0.0000	164.5
147		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-9.1766	0.0000	163.0
148		Boston University	AE	-9.1995	0.0000	159.1
149		Fresno St.	WAC	-9.3387	0.0000	151.2
150		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-9.3395	0.0000	166.7
151		IUPUI	Sum	-9.4596	0.0000	170.1
152		College of Charleston	SC	-9.7113	0.0000	167.4
153	X	Monmouth	NEC	-9.9429	0.0000	179.7
154		Troy	SB	-10.0052	0.0000	160.8
155		Middle Tennessee	SB	-10.1230	0.0000	155.1
156		Colgate	Pat	-10.1475	0.0000	164.1
157		Cal Poly	BW	-10.1591	0.0000	173.5
158		Illinois St.	MVC	-10.2065	0.0000	154.1
159		Mercer	ASun	-10.3434	0.0000	187.2
160		Wagner	NEC	-10.4021	0.0000	180.4
161		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-10.5248	0.0000	178.3
162		American	Pat	-10.5382	0.0000	168.8
163		Appalachian St.	SC	-10.5550	0.0000	183.7
164		Oakland	Sum	-10.6163	0.0000	176.2
165		Iowa St.	B12	-10.6324	0.0000	150.8
166		Portland St.	BSky	-10.6405	0.0000	176.7
167		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-10.6509	0.0000	177.9
168		Colorado	B12	-10.6512	0.0000	152.3
169		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-10.7021	0.0000	153.2
170		Valparaiso	Horz	-10.8497	0.0000	168.5
171		Arizona St.	P10	-10.8809	0.0000	148.7
172		Boise St.	WAC	-10.8905	0.0000	173.6
173		Drake	MVC	-10.9196	0.0000	165.2
174		North Texas	SB	-10.9450	0.0000	178.5
175		Wichita St.	MVC	-10.9634	0.0000	156.3
176		Central Connecticut	NEC	-11.1321	0.0000	194.6
177		Navy	Pat	-11.2826	0.0000	175.7
178		Nebraska	B12	-11.3102	0.0000	158.5
179		North Dakota St.	Sum	-11.5212	0.0000	195.0
180		Marshall	CUSA	-11.7227	0.0000	166.3
181	X	Southern	SWAC	-11.7720	0.0000	202.7
182		William & Mary	CAA	-11.7841	0.0000	174.4
183		Cincinnati	BE	-11.8670	0.0000	149.1
184		UC Irvine	BW	-11.8982	0.0000	188.1
185		Rutgers	BE	-11.9920	0.0000	158.0
186		Niagara	MAAC	-12.0733	0.0000	192.7
187		Western Carolina	SC	-12.1910	0.0000	195.8
188		Western Michigan	MAC	-12.2326	0.0000	196.4
189		Northwestern	B10	-12.3854	0.0000	154.8
190		Cleveland St.	Horz	-12.4590	0.0000	183.8
191		Morgan St.	MEAC	-12.4714	0.0000	207.4
192		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-12.4901	0.0000	206.1
193		Princeton	Ivy	-12.6592	0.0000	206.7
194		Cornell	Ivy	-12.6731	0.0000	201.6
195		Chattanooga	SC	-12.8730	0.0000	202.8
196		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-12.9842	0.0000	214.1
197		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-12.9938	0.0000	195.6
198		Loyola MD	MAAC	-13.0081	0.0000	201.2
199		Rider	MAAC	-13.0210	0.0000	204.7
200		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-13.0331	0.0000	205.7
201		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-13.0406	0.0000	186.6
202		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-13.0422	0.0000	206.9
203		Texas Southern	SWAC	-13.0662	0.0000	211.8
204		Indiana St.	MVC	-13.0881	0.0000	178.7
205		Youngstown St.	Horz	-13.1073	0.0000	189.3
206		Tulsa	CUSA	-13.2759	0.0000	187.2
207		Yale	Ivy	-13.3082	0.0000	206.3
208		Auburn	SEC	-13.3884	0.0000	165.2
209		Weber St.	BSky	-13.4851	0.0000	208.4
210		Lehigh	Pat	-13.5029	0.0000	203.5
211		Oregon St.	P10	-13.5072	0.0000	179.8
212		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-13.7610	0.0000	216.7
213		Arkansas St.	SB	-13.7690	0.0000	208.5
214		Montana St.	BSky	-13.8119	0.0000	213.8
215		Utah Valley St.	ind	-13.8538	0.0000	230.8
216		Evansville	MVC	-13.9593	0.0000	192.6
217		MD Baltimore County	AE	-14.1925	0.0000	218.1
218		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-14.2607	0.0000	230.0
219		High Point	BSth	-14.3448	0.0000	224.7
220		Idaho St.	BSky	-14.3551	0.0000	214.9
221		Penn St.	B10	-14.5514	0.0000	171.1
222		Southern Utah	Sum	-14.6094	0.0000	226.6
223		Southern California	P10	-14.7068	0.0000	184.3
224		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-14.7758	0.0000	218.6
225		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-14.8630	0.0000	229.2
226		Pepperdine	WCC	-14.9074	0.0000	212.7
227		New Hampshire	AE	-15.0202	0.0000	231.2
228		Alabama St.	SWAC	-15.0223	0.0000	242.3
229		NC Asheville	BSth	-15.0303	0.0000	231.0
230		Portland	WCC	-15.0795	0.0000	220.4
231		Elon	SC	-15.0806	0.0000	231.0
232		Robert Morris	NEC	-15.1490	0.0000	232.8
233		Lafayette	Pat	-15.1676	0.0000	221.3
234		Quinnipiac	NEC	-15.2229	0.0000	237.1
235		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-15.4196	0.0000	234.9
236		McNeese St.	Slnd	-15.6637	0.0000	242.6
237		Lamar	Slnd	-15.9555	0.0000	246.2
238		Georgia Southern	SC	-16.1566	0.0000	235.7
239		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-16.2585	0.0000	242.2
240		Denver	SB	-16.4904	0.0000	243.5
241		St. Peter's	MAAC	-16.5532	0.0000	243.6
242		New Orleans	SB	-16.6265	0.0000	239.1
243		Columbia	Ivy	-16.8218	0.0000	249.5
244		Wyoming	MWC	-16.9126	0.0000	220.5
245		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-16.9862	0.0000	257.7
246		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-17.1050	0.0000	251.4
247		Florida Atlantic	SB	-17.1055	0.0000	239.5
248		Delaware	CAA	-17.2013	0.0000	233.9
249		Ball St.	MAC	-17.2183	0.0000	244.3
250		Rice	CUSA	-17.3911	0.0000	225.8
251		Iona	MAAC	-17.4071	0.0000	248.7
252		Army	Pat	-17.4629	0.0000	249.5
253		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-17.4827	0.0000	238.3
254		Hartford	AE	-17.4903	0.0000	254.8
255		Buffalo	MAC	-17.5395	0.0000	241.2
256		Liberty	BSth	-17.5941	0.0000	261.8
257		Jacksonville	ASun	-17.5957	0.0000	258.4
258		Wofford	SC	-17.6445	0.0000	254.1
259		St. Bonaventure	A10	-17.6734	0.0000	231.8
260		St. Francis NY	NEC	-17.7800	0.0000	267.9
261		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-17.8167	0.0000	258.7
262		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-18.0244	0.0000	259.9
263		Northern Colorado	BSky	-18.1228	0.0000	264.2
264		Florida A&M	MEAC	-18.2149	0.0000	265.4
265		Fairfield	MAAC	-18.4037	0.0000	255.8
266		San Jose St.	WAC	-18.7310	0.0000	266.4
267		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-18.8271	0.0000	282.5
268		Campbell	ASun	-18.9583	0.0000	278.9
269		Charleston Southern	BSth	-18.9925	0.0000	276.4
270		Richmond	A10	-19.0146	0.0000	250.5
271		South Florida	BE	-19.0322	0.0000	230.4
272		Harvard	Ivy	-19.0385	0.0000	269.6
273		Morehead St.	OVC	-19.2112	0.0000	274.7
274		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-19.2395	0.0000	276.9
275		Dartmouth	Ivy	-19.3097	0.0000	283.4
276		Chicago St.	ind	-19.4527	0.0000	286.5
277		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-19.5373	0.0000	289.5
278		Furman	SC	-19.6192	0.0000	283.0
279		Florida International	SB	-19.6450	0.0000	261.6
280		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-19.6798	0.0000	274.8
281		St. Francis PA	NEC	-19.6960	0.0000	286.1
282		Central Michigan	MAC	-19.7868	0.0000	273.8
283		Long Island	NEC	-19.7880	0.0000	289.1
284		Tennessee St.	OVC	-19.8335	0.0000	278.2
285		Jackson St.	SWAC	-19.8409	0.0000	290.7
286		Northern Illinois	MAC	-19.9807	0.0000	268.7
287		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-19.9815	0.0000	289.0
288		East Carolina	CUSA	-19.9869	0.0000	266.4
289		Centenary	Sum	-20.0948	0.0000	290.1
290		Coppin St.	MEAC	-20.1331	0.0000	283.7
291		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-20.1933	0.0000	288.3
292		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-20.2537	0.0000	291.8
293		Binghamton	AE	-20.4128	0.0000	293.4
294		Colorado St.	MWC	-20.5433	0.0000	245.8
295		Georgia St.	CAA	-20.6371	0.0000	270.8
296		Eastern Washington	BSky	-20.7537	0.0000	283.9
297		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-20.7569	0.0000	307.1
298		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-20.7979	0.0000	298.1
299		Maine	AE	-20.8107	0.0000	296.5
300		Sacramento St.	BSky	-20.9233	0.0000	287.7
301		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-20.9698	0.0000	305.6
302		Lipscomb	ASun	-21.0734	0.0000	299.1
303		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-21.1497	0.0000	297.3
304		Longwood	ind	-21.1670	0.0000	305.9
305		UC Riverside	BW	-21.2068	0.0000	300.5
306		Idaho	WAC	-21.2471	0.0000	292.7
307		Texas Pan American	ind	-21.2767	0.0000	319.1
308		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-21.3805	0.0000	294.2
309		Texas St.	Slnd	-21.4627	0.0000	309.4
310		Grambling	SWAC	-21.7037	0.0000	310.6
311		Stony Brook	AE	-21.8359	0.0000	309.9
312		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-21.8513	0.0000	294.4
313		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-21.9054	0.0000	316.7
314		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-21.9293	0.0000	310.4
315		UC Davis	BW	-21.9792	0.0000	309.3
316		Stetson	ASun	-22.0961	0.0000	307.1
317		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-22.2079	0.0000	324.1
318		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-22.2421	0.0000	305.7
319		Long Beach St.	BW	-22.3607	0.0000	309.3
320		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-22.3767	0.0000	314.7
321		La Salle	A10	-22.3775	0.0000	274.9
322		Delaware St.	MEAC	-22.4076	0.0000	314.9
323		Radford	BSth	-22.4832	0.0000	306.7
324		Western Illinois	Sum	-22.6530	0.0000	313.6
325		South Dakota St.	Sum	-22.6778	0.0000	314.6
326		Sacred Heart	NEC	-22.8263	0.0000	317.7
327		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-22.8495	0.0000	322.3
328		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-22.9055	0.0000	296.3
329		Canisius	MAAC	-22.9527	0.0000	313.8
330		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-23.0960	0.0000	337.4
331		North Carolina Central	ind	-23.1572	0.0000	321.1
332		North Florida	ASun	-23.7058	0.0000	326.3
333		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-23.7367	0.0000	319.6
334		Presbyterian	ind	-23.8320	0.0000	326.3
335		Savannah St.	ind	-23.8329	0.0000	333.3
336		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-24.3601	0.0000	338.5
337		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-24.4098	0.0000	336.9
338		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-25.1790	0.0000	326.6
339		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-25.2881	0.0000	337.0
340		The Citadel	SC	-25.4920	0.0000	336.8
341		Howard	MEAC	-25.7386	0.0000	339.8

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com