Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive

Through games of Jan 13, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	UCLA	P10	8.3692	1.0000	1.8
2		Arizona	P10	7.8278	1.0000	3.6
3	X	Florida	SEC	7.7117	1.0000	9.3
4	X	North Carolina	ACC	7.6364	1.0000	2.5
5		Wisconsin	B10	6.7124	1.0000	10.3
6		Kentucky	SEC	6.5547	1.0000	7.6
7		Pittsburgh	BE	6.4689	1.0000	7.4
8	X	Texas A&M	B12	6.2421	1.0000	12.4
9		Air Force	MWC	6.1886	1.0000	14.1
10	X	Ohio St.	B10	6.0765	1.0000	10.9
11		Kansas	B12	5.4998	1.0000	20.7
12	X	Memphis	CUSA	5.4113	1.0000	14.0
13		Clemson	ACC	5.4016	1.0000	16.1
14		Duke	ACC	5.1293	1.0000	6.5
15		Georgia Tech	ACC	4.8256	1.0000	21.6
16	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	4.7365	1.0000	19.2
17		Indiana	B10	4.6925	1.0000	21.3
18		Alabama	SEC	4.4852	1.0000	17.3
19		Tennessee	SEC	4.3724	1.0000	16.1
20	X	Notre Dame	BE	4.0817	1.0000	28.2
21	X	Butler	Horz	3.8538	0.9999	31.6
22	X	Missouri St.	MVC	3.8360	0.9999	22.4
23		Oklahoma St.	B12	3.7461	0.9999	21.2
24	X	Nevada	WAC	3.6269	0.9999	34.1
25		Washington St.	P10	3.5393	0.9998	33.9
26		Maryland	ACC	3.3967	0.9997	18.9
27		Oregon	P10	3.2727	0.9995	24.4
28		Virginia Tech	ACC	2.8247	0.9976	34.2
29		Villanova	BE	2.7560	0.9971	17.1
30	X	Xavier	A10	2.6181	0.9956	39.5
31		Purdue	B10	2.5444	0.9945	36.4
32		Texas	B12	2.4300	0.9925	40.0
33		Michigan St.	B10	2.3476	0.9906	26.4
34		Southern Illinois	MVC	2.3277	0.9900	32.2
35		West Virginia	BE	2.2619	0.9881	35.0
36		Arkansas	SEC	2.1401	0.9838	28.3
37		Boston College	ACC	2.0911	0.9817	35.6
38		Syracuse	BE	1.5608	0.9407	35.7
39		Creighton	MVC	1.5324	0.9373	40.6
40		Georgetown	BE	1.4510	0.9266	42.1
41		Marquette	BE	1.4477	0.9261	33.0
42		Georgia	SEC	1.3689	0.9145	43.9
43		Louisiana St.	SEC	1.0357	0.8498	41.7
44		Connecticut	BE	0.9887	0.8386	39.5
45		Brigham Young	MWC	0.5946	0.7240	48.4
46		Illinois	B10	0.3965	0.6541	38.4
47	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.3571	0.6395	58.2
48	X	Western Kentucky	SB	0.1727	0.5686	59.9
49	X	Gonzaga	WCC	0.1431	0.5569	56.5
50		Providence	BE	-0.0741	0.4705	50.0
51		Texas Tech	B12	-0.0839	0.4666	43.5
52		California	P10	-0.1305	0.4481	47.6
53		Southern California	P10	-0.1379	0.4451	52.7
54		Mississippi St.	SEC	-0.1550	0.4384	51.2
55		Drexel	CAA	-0.1654	0.4343	59.5
56		Florida St.	ACC	-0.2904	0.3858	46.2
57		Stanford	P10	-0.6147	0.2694	53.6
58		Wichita St.	MVC	-0.7273	0.2335	57.9
59		Old Dominion	CAA	-0.7616	0.2231	61.3
60	X	Winthrop	BSth	-0.9593	0.1687	81.2
61		Massachusetts	A10	-0.9603	0.1684	70.4
62	X	Davidson	SC	-1.1231	0.1307	75.6
63		Louisville	BE	-1.1336	0.1285	55.3
64		Bradley	MVC	-1.3158	0.0941	56.4
65		DePaul	BE	-1.3791	0.0839	58.9
66		Oklahoma	B12	-1.7155	0.0431	58.3
67		Nebraska	B12	-1.8341	0.0333	70.1
68		New Mexico St.	WAC	-1.9341	0.0266	78.5
69		Michigan	B10	-1.9674	0.0246	59.6
70	X	Pennsylvania	Ivy	-2.0458	0.0204	80.3
71		Northern Iowa	MVC	-2.2812	0.0113	75.3
72		Dayton	A10	-2.2868	0.0111	72.4
73		Missouri	B12	-2.8655	0.0021	65.0
74		St. Louis	A10	-2.8812	0.0020	82.5
75		Indiana St.	MVC	-2.9392	0.0016	76.5
76		Appalachian St.	SC	-3.0167	0.0013	100.0
77		Hofstra	CAA	-3.1188	0.0009	96.4
78		Virginia	ACC	-3.1420	0.0008	75.7
79		Tulsa	CUSA	-3.1617	0.0008	81.9
80		Washington	P10	-3.1653	0.0008	66.8
81	X	Akron	MAC	-3.2713	0.0005	95.1
82		George Washington	A10	-3.4626	0.0003	86.3
83		Ohio	MAC	-3.5338	0.0002	93.0
84		Kansas St.	B12	-3.5960	0.0002	76.4
85	X	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-3.6405	0.0001	95.1
86		UAB	CUSA	-3.6501	0.0001	84.5
87		San Diego St.	MWC	-3.7745	0.0001	80.2
88	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-3.8589	0.0001	91.5
89	X	Marist	MAAC	-3.9168	0.0000	107.2
90		Boise St.	WAC	-4.0216	0.0000	96.9
91		Utah St.	WAC	-4.1806	0.0000	86.4
92		Hawaii	WAC	-4.2965	0.0000	91.2
93		Colorado St.	MWC	-4.4957	0.0000	94.3
94		Fresno St.	WAC	-4.5604	0.0000	101.3
95		Wyoming	MWC	-4.6086	0.0000	98.2
96		Vanderbilt	SEC	-4.9005	0.0000	86.6
97		Santa Clara	WCC	-4.9402	0.0000	102.9
98		George Mason	CAA	-5.0724	0.0000	106.2
99		Kent St.	MAC	-5.0732	0.0000	110.6
100		Saint Joseph's	A10	-5.1303	0.0000	94.2
101		Houston	CUSA	-5.1779	0.0000	94.6
102		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-5.4208	0.0000	108.0
103		Vermont	AE	-5.4522	0.0000	122.8
104		Mississippi	SEC	-5.4562	0.0000	85.5
105		Iowa	B10	-5.4701	0.0000	94.9
106		Baylor	B12	-5.5340	0.0000	89.7
107	X	Belmont	ASun	-5.7884	0.0000	132.7
108	X	Oral Roberts	MCon	-5.9179	0.0000	121.4
109		New Mexico	MWC	-6.0090	0.0000	104.0
110	X	Long Beach St.	BW	-6.1114	0.0000	123.4
111		South Carolina	SEC	-6.1174	0.0000	88.6
112		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-6.5013	0.0000	129.0
113		Penn St.	B10	-6.5303	0.0000	101.9
114		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-6.5579	0.0000	137.9
115		Cincinnati	BE	-6.8184	0.0000	98.8
116		Siena	MAAC	-6.8894	0.0000	134.3
117		Seton Hall	BE	-6.9245	0.0000	95.5
118		Toledo	MAC	-6.9835	0.0000	132.3
119	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-6.9902	0.0000	142.7
120		Auburn	SEC	-6.9977	0.0000	101.6
121		Middle Tennessee	SB	-7.0024	0.0000	135.1
122	X	Idaho St.	BSky	-7.0878	0.0000	125.7
123		College of Charleston	SC	-7.1092	0.0000	131.5
124		Albany	AE	-7.1557	0.0000	136.3
125		Bucknell	Pat	-7.1893	0.0000	136.6
126		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-7.2896	0.0000	144.9
127		North Carolina St.	ACC	-7.4228	0.0000	102.7
128		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-7.4946	0.0000	126.2
129		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-7.5506	0.0000	133.8
130		Miami OH	MAC	-7.5637	0.0000	125.5
131		Oakland	MCon	-7.8329	0.0000	136.9
132		Fordham	A10	-7.8795	0.0000	134.8
133		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-7.8833	0.0000	137.6
134		Temple	A10	-7.9321	0.0000	125.6
135		Samford	OVC	-8.0593	0.0000	156.4
136		Charlotte	A10	-8.1825	0.0000	126.3
137		Central Florida	CUSA	-8.2769	0.0000	148.2
138		South Alabama	SB	-8.5761	0.0000	146.8
139		Miami FL	ACC	-8.6162	0.0000	134.6
140		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-8.6371	0.0000	136.4
141	X	Delaware St.	MEAC	-8.7693	0.0000	158.3
142		Western Michigan	MAC	-8.8528	0.0000	152.5
143		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-8.9287	0.0000	151.0
144		Utah	MWC	-8.9475	0.0000	144.5
145		Austin Peay	OVC	-8.9570	0.0000	166.6
146		Evansville	MVC	-8.9645	0.0000	114.5
147		Iowa St.	B12	-8.9842	0.0000	128.3
148		Loyola MD	MAAC	-9.0371	0.0000	168.9
149		Sacred Heart	NEC	-9.0607	0.0000	162.5
150	X	Jackson St.	SWAC	-9.2878	0.0000	171.2
151		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-9.3511	0.0000	167.6
152		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-9.4067	0.0000	174.2
153		Rhode Island	A10	-9.5669	0.0000	141.7
154		Northwestern	B10	-9.6450	0.0000	128.1
155		Wake Forest	ACC	-9.6458	0.0000	130.7
156		North Texas	SB	-9.6501	0.0000	172.2
157		Utah Valley St.	ind	-9.6834	0.0000	169.9
158		Illinois St.	MVC	-9.7004	0.0000	126.9
159		Rider	MAAC	-9.8320	0.0000	170.2
160		San Diego	WCC	-9.8834	0.0000	166.9
161		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-9.8903	0.0000	173.0
162		Drake	MVC	-9.9089	0.0000	118.7
163		Texas Christian	MWC	-10.2817	0.0000	141.3
164		St. John's	BE	-10.3420	0.0000	125.9
165		Minnesota	B10	-10.3799	0.0000	138.0
166		Yale	Ivy	-10.3851	0.0000	164.0
167		North Dakota St.	ind	-10.4321	0.0000	185.0
168		UC Irvine	BW	-10.7769	0.0000	173.3
169		Lipscomb	ASun	-10.7895	0.0000	184.7
170		Marshall	CUSA	-10.9185	0.0000	162.8
171		Eastern Washington	BSky	-11.3072	0.0000	186.1
172		Weber St.	BSky	-11.3421	0.0000	184.6
173		Wright St.	Horz	-11.4545	0.0000	176.5
174		American	Pat	-11.5969	0.0000	186.6
175		Navy	Pat	-11.6734	0.0000	180.1
176		St. Mary's	WCC	-11.7027	0.0000	166.3
177		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-11.7130	0.0000	183.7
178		Princeton	Ivy	-11.7274	0.0000	186.1
179		High Point	BSth	-11.7454	0.0000	189.9
180		Army	Pat	-11.7656	0.0000	180.0
181	X	Boston University	AE	-11.7696	0.0000	189.0
182		Towson	CAA	-11.8798	0.0000	164.7
183		Hartford	AE	-11.8918	0.0000	189.8
184		Morehead St.	OVC	-11.9346	0.0000	205.6
185		William & Mary	CAA	-11.9769	0.0000	170.1
186		Southern Utah	MCon	-12.1079	0.0000	192.5
187		Columbia	Ivy	-12.1650	0.0000	190.3
188	X	Tennessee Tech	OVC	-12.2089	0.0000	199.2
189		Rice	CUSA	-12.3557	0.0000	186.3
190		Youngstown St.	Horz	-12.4149	0.0000	187.4
191		Troy	SB	-12.4716	0.0000	198.0
192		South Florida	BE	-12.5182	0.0000	150.7
193		Oregon St.	P10	-12.7060	0.0000	147.4
194		Manhattan	MAAC	-12.8352	0.0000	213.6
195		Lamar	Slnd	-12.8365	0.0000	209.6
196		San Francisco	WCC	-12.8601	0.0000	191.8
197		NC Greensboro	SC	-12.9110	0.0000	206.4
198		Buffalo	MAC	-12.9428	0.0000	191.8
199		Valparaiso	MCon	-12.9439	0.0000	199.8
200		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-13.0918	0.0000	201.8
201		Florida Atlantic	SB	-13.4336	0.0000	203.4
202		Northern Arizona	BSky	-13.4582	0.0000	218.6
203		Cornell	Ivy	-13.6367	0.0000	211.9
204		Canisius	MAAC	-13.6399	0.0000	208.0
205		Harvard	Ivy	-13.6576	0.0000	199.4
206		Monmouth	NEC	-13.7152	0.0000	209.1
207		IUPUI	MCon	-13.7638	0.0000	215.3
208		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-13.7756	0.0000	217.2
209		Northeastern	CAA	-13.9329	0.0000	188.1
210		Furman	SC	-13.9437	0.0000	211.6
211		Lehigh	Pat	-14.0415	0.0000	218.5
212		Niagara	MAAC	-14.1632	0.0000	225.0
213		Arkansas St.	SB	-14.1816	0.0000	221.8
214		Murray St.	OVC	-14.2721	0.0000	225.1
215		Detroit	Horz	-14.2764	0.0000	205.2
216		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-14.2764	0.0000	227.2
217		Pacific	BW	-14.2824	0.0000	210.1
218		Montana	BSky	-14.3036	0.0000	218.4
219		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-14.4595	0.0000	196.7
220		Rutgers	BE	-14.5709	0.0000	169.8
221		Portland St.	BSky	-14.5720	0.0000	219.0
222		Tennessee St.	OVC	-14.7001	0.0000	225.5
223		Central Michigan	MAC	-14.7063	0.0000	220.6
224		Jacksonville	ASun	-14.9335	0.0000	230.0
225		Bowling Green	MAC	-15.0413	0.0000	218.5
226		Brown	Ivy	-15.0492	0.0000	232.6
227		Florida A&M	MEAC	-15.4935	0.0000	240.4
228		MD Baltimore County	AE	-15.8344	0.0000	235.3
229		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-15.8417	0.0000	219.4
230		Chattanooga	SC	-16.0642	0.0000	230.0
231		Tulane	CUSA	-16.0754	0.0000	221.3
232		La Salle	A10	-16.1123	0.0000	220.4
233		Dartmouth	Ivy	-16.1254	0.0000	231.0
234		NC Wilmington	CAA	-16.1302	0.0000	219.3
235		Stony Brook	AE	-16.1358	0.0000	241.7
236		Duquesne	A10	-16.1991	0.0000	232.6
237		New Orleans	SB	-16.2308	0.0000	240.1
238		Chicago St.	MCon	-16.3880	0.0000	222.0
239		Western Carolina	SC	-16.4182	0.0000	234.4
240		Hampton	MEAC	-16.4591	0.0000	247.7
241		Central Connecticut	NEC	-16.4723	0.0000	252.9
242		Georgia Southern	SC	-16.5324	0.0000	244.9
243		Texas Southern	SWAC	-16.5484	0.0000	249.7
244		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-16.5647	0.0000	246.2
245		Campbell	ASun	-16.6066	0.0000	248.5
246		Arizona St.	P10	-16.6558	0.0000	190.0
247		Georgia St.	CAA	-16.6592	0.0000	219.1
248		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-16.7016	0.0000	253.8
249		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-16.9013	0.0000	250.2
250		Ball St.	MAC	-17.0047	0.0000	237.3
251		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-17.1899	0.0000	260.3
252		Pepperdine	WCC	-17.4230	0.0000	240.7
253		Texas Pan American	ind	-17.4825	0.0000	264.9
254		Maine	AE	-17.5592	0.0000	254.2
255		Binghamton	AE	-17.6766	0.0000	261.6
256		Quinnipiac	NEC	-17.8208	0.0000	272.0
257		Cal Poly	BW	-17.8558	0.0000	267.1
258		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-18.1345	0.0000	262.3
259		Cleveland St.	Horz	-18.1516	0.0000	256.1
260		Lafayette	Pat	-18.2041	0.0000	257.1
261		Mercer	ASun	-18.2386	0.0000	275.8
262		Missouri Kansas City	MCon	-18.2963	0.0000	265.3
263		IUPU Fort Wayne	ind	-18.6622	0.0000	276.5
264		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-18.7944	0.0000	258.1
265		Howard	MEAC	-18.8905	0.0000	286.9
266		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-18.9606	0.0000	239.4
267		Colorado	B12	-18.9649	0.0000	224.1
268		Richmond	A10	-19.0541	0.0000	247.4
269		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-19.1123	0.0000	283.9
270		Liberty	BSth	-19.1350	0.0000	273.6
271		New Hampshire	AE	-19.1760	0.0000	281.6
272		Northern Illinois	MAC	-19.1796	0.0000	271.1
273		San Jose St.	WAC	-19.1841	0.0000	244.6
274		Fairfield	MAAC	-19.1900	0.0000	256.5
275		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-19.3671	0.0000	284.6
276		Florida International	SB	-19.3722	0.0000	273.2
277		Gardner Webb	ASun	-19.4978	0.0000	274.5
278		Centenary	MCon	-19.6948	0.0000	275.1
279		Stetson	ASun	-19.7207	0.0000	282.5
280		Radford	BSth	-19.7794	0.0000	282.8
281		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-19.7974	0.0000	278.8
282		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-19.8680	0.0000	289.7
283		Wagner	NEC	-19.9053	0.0000	288.4
284		Grambling	SWAC	-19.9338	0.0000	295.2
285		UC Davis	ind	-20.1052	0.0000	295.5
286		Long Island	NEC	-20.1221	0.0000	298.0
287		Coppin St.	MEAC	-20.1858	0.0000	274.2
288		Alabama St.	SWAC	-20.2397	0.0000	296.6
289		Delaware	CAA	-20.5395	0.0000	274.3
290		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-20.5402	0.0000	294.2
291		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-20.5449	0.0000	288.3
292		The Citadel	SC	-20.6025	0.0000	274.1
293		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-20.6576	0.0000	291.5
294		Longwood	ind	-20.6787	0.0000	286.6
295		Colgate	Pat	-20.7029	0.0000	286.9
296		Portland	WCC	-20.7865	0.0000	278.7
297		McNeese St.	Slnd	-20.7973	0.0000	291.8
298		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-20.8532	0.0000	298.8
299		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-20.9950	0.0000	302.0
300		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-20.9977	0.0000	294.7
301		Southern	SWAC	-21.0463	0.0000	302.6
302		NC Asheville	BSth	-21.1138	0.0000	296.6
303		Elon	SC	-21.1708	0.0000	287.1
304		St. Bonaventure	A10	-21.3225	0.0000	291.1
305		Savannah St.	ind	-21.3518	0.0000	294.7
306		Sacramento St.	BSky	-21.7433	0.0000	303.9
307		Texas St.	Slnd	-21.7952	0.0000	305.4
308		Morgan St.	MEAC	-21.8999	0.0000	314.8
309		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-21.9016	0.0000	300.9
310		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-22.0578	0.0000	315.0
311		St. Francis NY	NEC	-22.0596	0.0000	304.2
312		St. Francis PA	NEC	-22.1913	0.0000	314.6
313		St. Peter's	MAAC	-22.2603	0.0000	310.4
314		East Carolina	CUSA	-22.2847	0.0000	304.4
315		Montana St.	BSky	-22.3852	0.0000	316.0
316		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-22.4116	0.0000	326.0
317		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-22.5030	0.0000	318.1
318		Idaho	WAC	-22.7911	0.0000	280.0
319		Wofford	SC	-22.8292	0.0000	309.1
320		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-22.8970	0.0000	319.3
321		James Madison	CAA	-22.9110	0.0000	297.5
322		UC Riverside	BW	-22.9124	0.0000	320.0
323		South Dakota St.	ind	-22.9190	0.0000	321.9
324		Iona	MAAC	-23.1645	0.0000	318.0
325		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-23.2370	0.0000	326.8
326		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-23.2472	0.0000	328.8
327		Charleston Southern	BSth	-23.2661	0.0000	323.3
328		Western Illinois	MCon	-23.2878	0.0000	326.1
329		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-23.3192	0.0000	308.9
330		Winston Salem St.	ind	-23.3393	0.0000	325.3
331		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.4915	0.0000	332.1
332		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-23.8393	0.0000	330.4
333		Northern Colorado	BSky	-23.8689	0.0000	333.0
334		North Florida	ASun	-24.1431	0.0000	332.9
335		Denver	SB	-24.4832	0.0000	332.4
336		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-24.8188	0.0000	329.2

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, and to Jay Colemen for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com