Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive

Through games of Feb 13, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	Florida	SEC	9.4898	1.0000	4.8
2	X	UCLA	P10	8.2908	1.0000	1.4
3	X	North Carolina	ACC	7.9092	1.0000	2.4
4	X	Ohio St.	B10	7.8400	1.0000	5.0
5		Wisconsin	B10	7.6043	1.0000	6.2
6		Pittsburgh	BE	7.1349	1.0000	3.8
7		Kentucky	SEC	6.2449	1.0000	7.4
8		Arizona	P10	6.0342	1.0000	6.8
9		Kansas	B12	5.8620	1.0000	14.4
10		Southern Illinois	MVC	5.8350	1.0000	12.5
11	X	Texas A&M	B12	5.4871	1.0000	13.6
12	X	Memphis	CUSA	5.3848	1.0000	11.3
13	X	Georgetown	BE	5.3640	1.0000	16.8
14	X	Nevada	WAC	4.8437	1.0000	26.5
15		Boston College	ACC	4.5783	1.0000	19.6
16	X	Butler	Horz	4.4943	1.0000	27.6
17		Air Force	MWC	4.4202	1.0000	20.9
18		Virginia Tech	ACC	4.4025	1.0000	24.0
19		Washington St.	P10	4.3755	1.0000	28.8
20		Marquette	BE	4.2645	1.0000	15.1
21		Clemson	ACC	4.2186	1.0000	23.3
22		Creighton	MVC	4.1966	1.0000	27.3
23		Tennessee	SEC	4.0596	1.0000	15.4
24	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	3.8998	1.0000	21.0
25		Duke	ACC	3.5968	0.9998	9.5
26		Indiana	B10	3.5475	0.9998	25.4
27		Villanova	BE	3.4344	0.9997	14.9
28		Brigham Young	MWC	3.0371	0.9988	30.5
29		Oregon	P10	2.9708	0.9985	26.0
30	X	Xavier	A10	2.6777	0.9963	40.2
31		Georgia Tech	ACC	2.5829	0.9951	38.0
32	X	Missouri St.	MVC	2.2362	0.9873	29.7
33		Maryland	ACC	2.1788	0.9853	23.5
34		Oklahoma St.	B12	2.1476	0.9841	34.4
35		Virginia	ACC	1.9697	0.9756	40.4
36		Michigan St.	B10	1.8794	0.9699	28.0
37		Notre Dame	BE	1.8117	0.9650	52.9
38		Vanderbilt	SEC	1.5675	0.9415	46.0
39		Purdue	B10	1.5554	0.9401	42.9
40		Louisville	BE	1.4841	0.9311	42.2
41		Texas	B12	1.4624	0.9282	48.4
42		Alabama	SEC	1.4267	0.9232	33.9
43		Southern California	P10	1.3716	0.9149	45.1
44		Old Dominion	CAA	0.9812	0.8368	51.8
45		Stanford	P10	0.8560	0.8040	45.6
46		Georgia	SEC	0.8430	0.8004	45.6
47	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.7228	0.7651	51.6
48		Illinois	B10	0.5792	0.7188	36.1
49		West Virginia	BE	0.5145	0.6966	47.8
50		Florida St.	ACC	0.1302	0.5518	39.1
51		Drexel	CAA	-0.1612	0.4360	54.4
52		Appalachian St.	SC	-0.2869	0.3871	79.6
53		Providence	BE	-0.3146	0.3766	48.7
54		Arkansas	SEC	-0.4741	0.3177	44.2
55		San Diego St.	MWC	-0.5155	0.3031	56.0
56		Texas Tech	B12	-0.5453	0.2928	43.2
57		Kansas St.	B12	-0.9276	0.1768	63.0
58	X	Gonzaga	WCC	-1.0476	0.1474	66.1
59		Syracuse	BE	-1.0685	0.1427	49.4
60	X	Davidson	SC	-1.0769	0.1408	72.1
61		New Mexico St.	WAC	-1.1738	0.1202	75.5
62		Wichita St.	MVC	-1.2498	0.1057	65.4
63		St. Louis	A10	-1.2566	0.1044	75.0
64		Massachusetts	A10	-1.3406	0.0900	73.9
65		Bradley	MVC	-1.5226	0.0639	48.8
66	X	Winthrop	BSth	-1.5513	0.0604	86.7
67		Santa Clara	WCC	-1.5889	0.0560	76.8
68	X	Akron	MAC	-1.6031	0.0545	79.7
69		Nebraska	B12	-1.7724	0.0382	71.6
70		Mississippi	SEC	-1.7728	0.0381	62.1
71		Mississippi St.	SEC	-1.7845	0.0372	62.9
72		Michigan	B10	-1.7929	0.0365	56.6
73		Hofstra	CAA	-1.9853	0.0236	86.0
74		Washington	P10	-2.0045	0.0225	64.6
75		Oklahoma	B12	-2.0106	0.0222	60.9
76	X	Western Kentucky	SB	-2.5319	0.0057	87.2
77		Dayton	A10	-2.5908	0.0048	74.7
78		DePaul	BE	-2.6239	0.0043	66.9
79	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-2.6623	0.0039	80.0
80		Houston	CUSA	-2.8898	0.0019	74.9
81		Vermont	AE	-2.9905	0.0014	94.4
82		Connecticut	BE	-3.2122	0.0007	65.4
83		Iowa	B10	-3.2391	0.0006	79.6
84	X	Pennsylvania	Ivy	-3.3009	0.0005	96.1
85		Utah St.	WAC	-3.3352	0.0004	76.3
86		Wright St.	Horz	-3.4491	0.0003	99.6
87		Louisiana St.	SEC	-3.5381	0.0002	64.7
88	X	Oral Roberts	MCon	-3.6946	0.0001	99.7
89		Missouri	B12	-3.7013	0.0001	71.6
90		Northern Iowa	MVC	-3.8208	0.0001	87.8
91	X	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-4.0602	0.0000	98.8
92		Toledo	MAC	-4.2226	0.0000	104.7
93	X	Long Beach St.	BW	-4.2791	0.0000	104.0
94		Saint Joseph's	A10	-4.3417	0.0000	90.0
95		California	P10	-4.3509	0.0000	72.4
96		Bucknell	Pat	-4.4008	0.0000	110.6
97		Hawaii	WAC	-4.5082	0.0000	95.1
98		Fresno St.	WAC	-4.7617	0.0000	95.3
99		Boise St.	WAC	-4.8443	0.0000	105.6
100		Ohio	MAC	-4.9372	0.0000	104.2
101		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-5.0117	0.0000	114.8
102		Kent St.	MAC	-5.0760	0.0000	112.9
103		Central Florida	CUSA	-5.1306	0.0000	115.9
104		Albany	AE	-5.1442	0.0000	113.3
105		Austin Peay	OVC	-5.2050	0.0000	124.3
106		George Washington	A10	-5.2303	0.0000	96.9
107		South Alabama	SB	-5.4569	0.0000	119.4
108	X	Marist	MAAC	-5.5214	0.0000	123.3
109		Auburn	SEC	-6.0271	0.0000	91.9
110		Colorado St.	MWC	-6.0621	0.0000	109.2
111		Rhode Island	A10	-6.1655	0.0000	113.7
112		South Carolina	SEC	-6.2086	0.0000	90.8
113		Utah	MWC	-6.3579	0.0000	111.9
114		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-6.4466	0.0000	133.4
115		Tulsa	CUSA	-6.4485	0.0000	113.5
116		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-6.4927	0.0000	111.4
117		Fordham	A10	-6.6672	0.0000	124.7
118		North Carolina St.	ACC	-6.6935	0.0000	94.4
119		Indiana St.	MVC	-6.6965	0.0000	107.3
120		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-6.7641	0.0000	137.5
121		New Mexico	MWC	-6.8405	0.0000	108.7
122		Wyoming	MWC	-6.8978	0.0000	116.4
123		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-7.0824	0.0000	147.2
124		Oakland	MCon	-7.1861	0.0000	132.4
125		UAB	CUSA	-7.2093	0.0000	120.1
126		Temple	A10	-7.3619	0.0000	128.8
127	X	Belmont	ASun	-7.3804	0.0000	148.2
128		Evansville	MVC	-7.4217	0.0000	105.3
129		College of Charleston	SC	-7.4232	0.0000	130.0
130		St. John's	BE	-7.4255	0.0000	109.7
131		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-7.5278	0.0000	135.5
132		Miami OH	MAC	-7.7150	0.0000	126.4
133		Western Michigan	MAC	-8.0059	0.0000	141.0
134		Seton Hall	BE	-8.0812	0.0000	110.8
135	X	Tennessee Tech	OVC	-8.2807	0.0000	152.2
136		Central Connecticut	NEC	-8.3631	0.0000	163.8
137		Samford	OVC	-8.4175	0.0000	157.1
138		Utah Valley St.	ind	-8.4915	0.0000	157.3
139		Yale	Ivy	-8.5204	0.0000	151.4
140		Drake	MVC	-8.5354	0.0000	116.8
141		Niagara	MAAC	-8.5550	0.0000	164.4
142		Rice	CUSA	-8.7718	0.0000	149.0
143		George Mason	CAA	-8.7899	0.0000	131.8
144	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-8.8022	0.0000	160.7
145		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-8.8513	0.0000	163.0
146		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-8.8713	0.0000	145.0
147		Iowa St.	B12	-8.9122	0.0000	124.6
148		Siena	MAAC	-9.1840	0.0000	156.9
149		North Texas	SB	-9.2015	0.0000	168.8
150	X	Delaware St.	MEAC	-9.3254	0.0000	167.9
151		Wake Forest	ACC	-9.3582	0.0000	127.7
152		Cincinnati	BE	-9.3907	0.0000	131.4
153		Charlotte	A10	-9.7289	0.0000	136.3
154		Valparaiso	MCon	-9.8074	0.0000	167.7
155		North Dakota St.	ind	-9.8634	0.0000	177.7
156		Weber St.	BSky	-9.8656	0.0000	166.5
157		Baylor	B12	-9.9529	0.0000	125.0
158		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-10.0706	0.0000	169.5
159		Illinois St.	MVC	-10.0950	0.0000	134.1
160		Towson	CAA	-10.1227	0.0000	146.2
161		Duquesne	A10	-10.1575	0.0000	176.1
162		Middle Tennessee	SB	-10.3765	0.0000	164.6
163		Cornell	Ivy	-10.4046	0.0000	175.8
164		Miami FL	ACC	-10.5396	0.0000	151.0
165		Marshall	CUSA	-10.5741	0.0000	164.5
166		Northwestern	B10	-10.6342	0.0000	132.6
167	X	Idaho St.	BSky	-10.7226	0.0000	166.4
168		Murray St.	OVC	-10.8951	0.0000	190.5
169		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-10.9411	0.0000	165.5
170		Rider	MAAC	-11.0278	0.0000	184.2
171		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-11.0395	0.0000	160.2
172		Minnesota	B10	-11.1730	0.0000	141.9
173		Lipscomb	ASun	-11.3412	0.0000	183.9
174		San Francisco	WCC	-11.3973	0.0000	169.4
175		Loyola MD	MAAC	-11.4259	0.0000	196.8
176		St. Mary's	WCC	-11.6286	0.0000	167.6
177		Penn St.	B10	-11.7085	0.0000	142.3
178		Southern Utah	MCon	-11.7774	0.0000	185.7
179		High Point	BSth	-11.8540	0.0000	195.4
180		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-11.9098	0.0000	183.0
181		South Florida	BE	-11.9993	0.0000	152.1
182		UC Irvine	BW	-12.2428	0.0000	189.8
183		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-12.2546	0.0000	194.4
184		San Diego	WCC	-12.2802	0.0000	186.2
185		Montana	BSky	-12.3120	0.0000	198.1
186		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-12.3267	0.0000	198.9
187		Sacred Heart	NEC	-12.3855	0.0000	202.7
188		Jacksonville	ASun	-12.4761	0.0000	201.2
189	X	Jackson St.	SWAC	-12.5250	0.0000	202.1
190		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-12.5288	0.0000	181.3
191		William & Mary	CAA	-12.5681	0.0000	169.2
192		Fairfield	MAAC	-12.6002	0.0000	191.6
193		Northern Arizona	BSky	-12.6805	0.0000	212.6
194		New Orleans	SB	-12.8793	0.0000	196.7
195		Hampton	MEAC	-12.9294	0.0000	204.6
196		Youngstown St.	Horz	-12.9443	0.0000	186.6
197		Furman	SC	-12.9897	0.0000	204.0
198	X	Boston University	AE	-13.0465	0.0000	197.1
199		Rutgers	BE	-13.0909	0.0000	163.5
200		Pacific	BW	-13.1153	0.0000	193.2
201		Manhattan	MAAC	-13.1991	0.0000	220.7
202		NC Greensboro	SC	-13.2482	0.0000	213.3
203		Portland St.	BSky	-13.2974	0.0000	206.3
204		Cal Poly	BW	-13.3493	0.0000	212.4
205		Columbia	Ivy	-13.3591	0.0000	206.0
206		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-13.4583	0.0000	211.1
207		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-13.6088	0.0000	218.8
208		Harvard	Ivy	-13.6259	0.0000	198.9
209		Tulane	CUSA	-13.8043	0.0000	206.9
210		Texas Christian	MWC	-13.8713	0.0000	174.8
211		Detroit	Horz	-13.8876	0.0000	197.7
212		Northeastern	CAA	-13.9931	0.0000	187.9
213		Lehigh	Pat	-14.1218	0.0000	216.9
214		Navy	Pat	-14.1601	0.0000	210.4
215		IUPUI	MCon	-14.2469	0.0000	218.4
216		Princeton	Ivy	-14.5556	0.0000	217.2
217		American	Pat	-14.7260	0.0000	214.2
218		Oregon St.	P10	-14.7602	0.0000	161.4
219		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-14.7930	0.0000	236.2
220		Florida Atlantic	SB	-14.8261	0.0000	216.2
221		Chattanooga	SC	-14.8366	0.0000	214.9
222		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-14.8886	0.0000	222.7
223		Arkansas St.	SB	-15.0571	0.0000	235.5
224		Buffalo	MAC	-15.1449	0.0000	213.8
225		Ball St.	MAC	-15.2252	0.0000	219.0
226		Florida A&M	MEAC	-15.3021	0.0000	238.1
227		Eastern Washington	BSky	-15.3886	0.0000	230.2
228		Monmouth	NEC	-15.4285	0.0000	227.3
229		Quinnipiac	NEC	-15.6616	0.0000	247.9
230		Lamar	Slnd	-15.7486	0.0000	239.8
231		Hartford	AE	-15.7505	0.0000	235.5
232		Canisius	MAAC	-15.7518	0.0000	235.3
233		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-15.7757	0.0000	215.0
234		Maine	AE	-15.8474	0.0000	242.1
235		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-15.9395	0.0000	243.8
236		Colorado	B12	-15.9805	0.0000	204.6
237		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-16.0594	0.0000	222.9
238		MD Baltimore County	AE	-16.2668	0.0000	236.3
239		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-16.3171	0.0000	244.5
240		Army	Pat	-16.3512	0.0000	227.8
241		Brown	Ivy	-16.4604	0.0000	248.0
242		Troy	SB	-16.4959	0.0000	237.9
243		Mercer	ASun	-16.6126	0.0000	256.8
244		Central Michigan	MAC	-16.8261	0.0000	244.5
245		Texas Southern	SWAC	-16.9561	0.0000	251.7
246		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-17.2144	0.0000	240.5
247		Dartmouth	Ivy	-17.6988	0.0000	250.9
248		Montana St.	BSky	-17.7735	0.0000	271.2
249		New Hampshire	AE	-17.8244	0.0000	263.8
250		Bowling Green	MAC	-17.9357	0.0000	249.7
251		Binghamton	AE	-17.9786	0.0000	259.3
252		San Jose St.	WAC	-17.9793	0.0000	223.8
253		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-18.0267	0.0000	268.2
254		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-18.0286	0.0000	259.5
255		Colgate	Pat	-18.0581	0.0000	254.3
256		Arizona St.	P10	-18.0993	0.0000	203.0
257		Gardner Webb	ASun	-18.1190	0.0000	256.7
258		Chicago St.	MCon	-18.1652	0.0000	238.8
259		Western Carolina	SC	-18.1664	0.0000	247.6
260		IUPU Fort Wayne	ind	-18.2549	0.0000	269.7
261		Georgia Southern	SC	-18.5813	0.0000	259.1
262		Tennessee St.	OVC	-18.5869	0.0000	263.5
263		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-18.6582	0.0000	278.3
264		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-18.8454	0.0000	273.3
265		Campbell	ASun	-18.9200	0.0000	272.8
266		Stony Brook	AE	-19.1018	0.0000	266.0
267		Liberty	BSth	-19.1225	0.0000	274.5
268		Grambling	SWAC	-19.2124	0.0000	289.2
269		La Salle	A10	-19.2221	0.0000	248.3
270		Portland	WCC	-19.2515	0.0000	256.7
271		Texas Pan American	ind	-19.2588	0.0000	285.4
272		Morgan St.	MEAC	-19.3153	0.0000	296.6
273		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-19.3238	0.0000	275.7
274		Savannah St.	ind	-19.4645	0.0000	273.5
275		McNeese St.	Slnd	-19.4879	0.0000	279.5
276		Georgia St.	CAA	-19.5382	0.0000	238.3
277		Florida International	SB	-19.6790	0.0000	278.7
278		Morehead St.	OVC	-19.6855	0.0000	289.4
279		Stetson	ASun	-19.7754	0.0000	280.7
280		Coppin St.	MEAC	-19.7869	0.0000	269.9
281		NC Wilmington	CAA	-19.9116	0.0000	249.8
282		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-19.9377	0.0000	295.7
283		Northern Illinois	MAC	-20.0241	0.0000	279.4
284		Missouri Kansas City	MCon	-20.1092	0.0000	280.6
285		Cleveland St.	Horz	-20.2315	0.0000	275.1
286		Wagner	NEC	-20.2407	0.0000	294.0
287		Pepperdine	WCC	-20.3981	0.0000	267.2
288		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-20.6315	0.0000	300.5
289		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-20.6417	0.0000	295.3
290		St. Bonaventure	A10	-20.6946	0.0000	278.2
291		James Madison	CAA	-20.7457	0.0000	282.5
292		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-20.8293	0.0000	298.9
293		Delaware	CAA	-20.9102	0.0000	276.8
294		Centenary	MCon	-20.9177	0.0000	283.3
295		Southern	SWAC	-20.9769	0.0000	297.8
296		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-21.0437	0.0000	297.4
297		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-21.1088	0.0000	308.7
298		UC Davis	ind	-21.1729	0.0000	308.0
299		Wofford	SC	-21.3602	0.0000	288.7
300		Alabama St.	SWAC	-21.3702	0.0000	303.9
301		Lafayette	Pat	-21.4244	0.0000	286.5
302		Long Island	NEC	-21.6822	0.0000	315.2
303		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-21.7765	0.0000	308.2
304		NC Asheville	BSth	-21.8871	0.0000	300.2
305		St. Francis NY	NEC	-21.9060	0.0000	302.1
306		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-21.9497	0.0000	324.0
307		Longwood	ind	-21.9899	0.0000	298.2
308		Howard	MEAC	-22.0622	0.0000	319.8
309		Richmond	A10	-22.0627	0.0000	278.5
310		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-22.2567	0.0000	314.5
311		Sacramento St.	BSky	-22.3167	0.0000	307.8
312		UC Riverside	BW	-22.6063	0.0000	314.6
313		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-22.6493	0.0000	315.4
314		Radford	BSth	-22.6551	0.0000	314.9
315		Winston Salem St.	ind	-22.7157	0.0000	317.1
316		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-22.7214	0.0000	329.2
317		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-22.7763	0.0000	325.7
318		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-22.9196	0.0000	308.8
319		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-23.0098	0.0000	303.7
320		South Dakota St.	ind	-23.0157	0.0000	323.7
321		Texas St.	Slnd	-23.0403	0.0000	319.2
322		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-23.0793	0.0000	327.2
323		East Carolina	CUSA	-23.2799	0.0000	313.1
324		Idaho	WAC	-23.3380	0.0000	289.4
325		Elon	SC	-23.5118	0.0000	304.6
326		The Citadel	SC	-23.6573	0.0000	299.0
327		Western Illinois	MCon	-23.7002	0.0000	327.1
328		St. Peter's	MAAC	-23.9144	0.0000	326.9
329		Charleston Southern	BSth	-23.9693	0.0000	327.4
330		Denver	SB	-24.0659	0.0000	330.0
331		Iona	MAAC	-24.1531	0.0000	325.2
332		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-24.1619	0.0000	329.9
333		St. Francis PA	NEC	-24.1663	0.0000	327.8
334		Northern Colorado	BSky	-24.2769	0.0000	334.9
335		North Florida	ASun	-24.7623	0.0000	334.9
336		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-26.2518	0.0000	334.9

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, and to Jay Colemen for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com