Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Dec 13, 2008.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	9.4909	1.0000	1.9
2		Pittsburgh	BE	8.1691	1.0000	3.9
3		Duke	ACC	8.1197	1.0000	3.4
4		Oklahoma	B12	7.3111	1.0000	6.8
5	X	Georgetown	BE	7.0256	1.0000	5.0
6	X	Xavier	A10	6.1841	1.0000	11.8
7	X	Ohio St.	B10	6.1271	1.0000	12.7
8	X	Gonzaga	WCC	6.0823	1.0000	13.5
9		Louisville	BE	5.9368	1.0000	11.9
10		Clemson	ACC	5.7067	1.0000	12.5
11		Texas	B12	5.6586	1.0000	12.9
12	X	Memphis	CUSA	5.5530	1.0000	13.1
13		Connecticut	BE	5.4621	1.0000	12.7
14	X	Tennessee	SEC	5.3558	1.0000	11.4
15	X	Kansas	B12	5.2778	1.0000	15.5
16		Missouri	B12	5.0687	1.0000	15.8
17		West Virginia	BE	4.5934	1.0000	17.0
18		Purdue	B10	4.4391	1.0000	23.4
19		Syracuse	BE	3.8825	0.9999	20.1
20		Baylor	B12	3.8421	0.9999	22.1
21		Illinois	B10	3.8338	0.9999	22.1
22		Villanova	BE	3.4434	0.9997	27.4
23	X	Brigham Young	MWC	3.3726	0.9996	27.7
24	X	Butler	Horz	3.3724	0.9996	34.0
25		Michigan St.	B10	3.1508	0.9992	27.5
26		Maryland	ACC	3.1322	0.9991	25.7
27		Miami FL	ACC	2.9053	0.9982	30.6
28		Kentucky	SEC	2.8462	0.9978	30.8
29	X	UCLA	P10	2.8170	0.9976	32.6
30		Wake Forest	ACC	2.6263	0.9957	30.8
31		Notre Dame	BE	2.4095	0.9920	33.8
32	X	Davidson	SC	2.3788	0.9913	48.7
33		Utah	MWC	2.2567	0.9880	32.3
34	X	Creighton	MVC	1.9726	0.9757	45.6
35		Arizona St.	P10	1.9453	0.9741	37.4
36		Northwestern	B10	1.7382	0.9589	35.1
37		Michigan	B10	1.5949	0.9446	37.1
38		Florida	SEC	1.5545	0.9400	40.6
39	X	Utah St.	WAC	1.0287	0.8482	46.5
40		Wisconsin	B10	0.7379	0.7697	39.0
41		Dayton	A10	0.6700	0.7486	46.9
42		Boston College	ACC	0.5425	0.7063	46.2
43		Texas A&M	B12	0.4082	0.6584	44.8
44		Houston	CUSA	0.0631	0.5252	61.5
45		Temple	A10	-0.1973	0.4218	54.0
46	X	Miami OH	MAC	-0.2372	0.4062	60.5
47		California	P10	-0.4030	0.3435	49.9
48		South Carolina	SEC	-0.4290	0.3340	53.8
49		Florida St.	ACC	-0.4951	0.3103	46.6
50	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-0.5278	0.2988	65.5
51		Marquette	BE	-0.6069	0.2720	54.6
52		George Mason	CAA	-0.6160	0.2690	66.0
53		UAB	CUSA	-0.6233	0.2665	55.6
54		Washington	P10	-0.6749	0.2499	50.3
55		Southern California	P10	-0.7779	0.2183	55.7
56		Kansas St.	B12	-0.7854	0.2161	59.4
57		Cincinnati	BE	-0.8783	0.1899	59.3
58		Texas Tech	B12	-0.8978	0.1847	50.8
59		Oklahoma St.	B12	-0.9204	0.1787	48.7
60		Louisiana St.	SEC	-0.9861	0.1620	62.6
61		Washington St.	P10	-1.0253	0.1526	61.0
62		Arizona	P10	-1.0879	0.1383	53.6
63		Georgia Tech	ACC	-1.2953	0.0976	58.3
64		St. Mary's	WCC	-1.4431	0.0745	77.4
65		Rhode Island	A10	-1.5083	0.0657	72.7
66		Evansville	MVC	-1.5488	0.0607	62.6
67		Stanford	P10	-1.7809	0.0375	64.9
68		Iowa	B10	-1.8291	0.0337	64.5
69		Seton Hall	BE	-1.9108	0.0280	70.3
70	X	Siena	MAAC	-1.9859	0.0235	76.9
71		Nebraska	B12	-2.0018	0.0227	68.3
72		Illinois St.	MVC	-2.0179	0.0218	74.6
73		San Diego St.	MWC	-2.0247	0.0214	59.1
74		Niagara	MAAC	-2.1040	0.0177	81.6
75		Minnesota	B10	-2.1126	0.0173	60.4
76		Mississippi	SEC	-2.3746	0.0088	62.3
77		New Mexico	MWC	-2.4548	0.0070	73.9
78		Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	-2.6212	0.0044	66.8
79	X	Western Kentucky	SB	-2.6676	0.0038	81.5
80		Vanderbilt	SEC	-2.6937	0.0035	68.7
81		Saint Joseph's	A10	-2.9653	0.0015	79.9
82		Virginia Tech	ACC	-3.3122	0.0005	68.1
83	X	Belmont	ASun	-3.4930	0.0002	104.4
84		North Carolina St.	ACC	-3.5001	0.0002	74.3
85		Tulsa	CUSA	-3.5065	0.0002	94.0
86		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-3.8142	0.0001	99.4
87		Hofstra	CAA	-3.9021	0.0000	96.6
88		Austin Peay	OVC	-4.0582	0.0000	102.1
89		Mississippi St.	SEC	-4.0735	0.0000	84.8
90		Penn St.	B10	-4.0939	0.0000	79.1
91	X	Murray St.	OVC	-4.3018	0.0000	111.1
92		Akron	MAC	-4.4387	0.0000	101.1
93		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-4.7110	0.0000	113.3
94		Duquesne	A10	-4.7200	0.0000	103.0
95		East Carolina	CUSA	-4.7779	0.0000	105.4
96		College of Charleston	SC	-4.8119	0.0000	112.5
97		Arkansas	SEC	-4.8432	0.0000	86.6
98		Missouri St.	MVC	-4.8941	0.0000	96.4
99		Providence	BE	-5.0364	0.0000	89.4
100		Cleveland St.	Horz	-5.1591	0.0000	104.0
101	X	Vermont	AE	-5.3286	0.0000	115.1
102		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-5.8367	0.0000	117.2
103		Fairfield	MAAC	-5.9274	0.0000	116.0
104		Arkansas St.	SB	-6.1821	0.0000	125.0
105		Virginia	ACC	-6.1966	0.0000	89.8
106		Middle Tennessee	SB	-6.2050	0.0000	123.8
107		St. John's	BE	-6.2808	0.0000	97.3
108		New Mexico St.	WAC	-6.3335	0.0000	120.6
109		South Florida	BE	-6.3503	0.0000	107.5
110		Auburn	SEC	-6.3718	0.0000	106.3
111		Southern Illinois	MVC	-6.4441	0.0000	113.0
112		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-6.4446	0.0000	131.9
113		Alabama	SEC	-6.4809	0.0000	106.2
114	X	UC Santa Barbara	BW	-6.5761	0.0000	124.9
115		Massachusetts	A10	-6.6107	0.0000	115.3
116		Jacksonville	ASun	-6.6577	0.0000	134.0
117		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-6.6827	0.0000	132.9
118		North Texas	SB	-6.7443	0.0000	123.7
119	X	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-6.9147	0.0000	135.2
120		Drake	MVC	-6.9188	0.0000	116.2
121		Wichita St.	MVC	-6.9778	0.0000	122.4
122		Albany	AE	-7.0713	0.0000	134.5
123		Boston University	AE	-7.1197	0.0000	137.0
124		Ohio	MAC	-7.2135	0.0000	131.4
125		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-7.3029	0.0000	114.2
126		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-7.5925	0.0000	142.4
127	X	American	Pat	-7.6400	0.0000	144.4
128		George Washington	A10	-7.6974	0.0000	127.3
129		Western Carolina	SC	-7.7620	0.0000	144.2
130		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-7.8676	0.0000	122.9
131		Texas Christian	MWC	-7.9148	0.0000	119.2
132		Oregon	P10	-7.9467	0.0000	107.4
133		Lamar	Slnd	-7.9648	0.0000	151.8
134		Georgia	SEC	-8.1347	0.0000	111.4
135	X	Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-8.1792	0.0000	159.8
136		Bradley	MVC	-8.2486	0.0000	125.1
137		St. Louis	A10	-8.2540	0.0000	136.1
138		South Alabama	SB	-8.2747	0.0000	146.2
139		Kent St.	MAC	-8.3480	0.0000	139.2
140		Nevada	WAC	-8.3958	0.0000	140.9
141	X	Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-8.4189	0.0000	151.1
142		Northeastern	CAA	-8.5321	0.0000	141.8
143		Charlotte	A10	-8.6222	0.0000	141.8
144		Navy	Pat	-8.6801	0.0000	154.7
145		Rider	MAAC	-8.8262	0.0000	152.2
146		Binghamton	AE	-8.8270	0.0000	158.6
147	X	North Dakota St.	Sum	-8.9129	0.0000	163.1
148		Drexel	CAA	-9.0004	0.0000	145.2
149		Liberty	BSth	-9.2334	0.0000	173.9
150		Marshall	CUSA	-9.3686	0.0000	142.2
151		DePaul	BE	-9.3745	0.0000	126.2
152		Buffalo	MAC	-9.3841	0.0000	152.5
153		Pacific	BW	-9.4852	0.0000	162.6
154		Hawaii	WAC	-9.4889	0.0000	153.1
155		San Jose St.	WAC	-9.6116	0.0000	156.5
156		Central Connecticut	NEC	-9.6302	0.0000	167.9
157		Iowa St.	B12	-9.6557	0.0000	133.5
158		Santa Clara	WCC	-9.6638	0.0000	156.5
159		Long Beach St.	BW	-9.8294	0.0000	163.8
160		San Francisco	WCC	-9.8882	0.0000	154.2
161		La Salle	A10	-9.9589	0.0000	146.7
162		Richmond	A10	-10.0396	0.0000	153.3
163		Appalachian St.	SC	-10.1122	0.0000	173.0
164		Old Dominion	CAA	-10.1391	0.0000	165.5
165		Portland	WCC	-10.3319	0.0000	171.7
166		Iona	MAAC	-10.3606	0.0000	166.5
167	X	Cornell	Ivy	-10.3632	0.0000	172.4
168		Manhattan	MAAC	-10.4088	0.0000	170.8
169		Air Force	MWC	-10.4442	0.0000	147.4
170	X	Portland St.	BSky	-10.8752	0.0000	182.1
171		Indiana	B10	-10.9272	0.0000	123.0
172		Oral Roberts	Sum	-10.9676	0.0000	181.9
173		Rutgers	BE	-11.0380	0.0000	148.0
174		Utah Valley	ind	-11.0413	0.0000	191.3
175		Colorado	B12	-11.1054	0.0000	151.7
176		Presbyterian	BSth	-11.1100	0.0000	182.2
177		San Diego	WCC	-11.1430	0.0000	165.2
178		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-11.1828	0.0000	180.4
179		Idaho	WAC	-11.3120	0.0000	175.8
180		Lehigh	Pat	-11.3304	0.0000	186.8
181		Boise St.	WAC	-11.4514	0.0000	171.5
182		MD Baltimore County	AE	-11.6115	0.0000	186.1
183		Oakland	Sum	-11.6345	0.0000	188.4
184		Eastern Washington	BSky	-11.8662	0.0000	190.6
185		Wyoming	MWC	-11.9430	0.0000	160.6
186		Weber St.	BSky	-11.9788	0.0000	182.0
187		Mercer	ASun	-12.5132	0.0000	191.6
188		Central Florida	CUSA	-12.5371	0.0000	182.0
189		Chattanooga	SC	-12.5939	0.0000	193.1
190		Gardner Webb	ASun	-12.6284	0.0000	194.2
191		Fresno St.	WAC	-12.6375	0.0000	182.5
192		Wofford	SC	-12.6514	0.0000	186.8
193		Colorado St.	MWC	-12.6825	0.0000	175.0
194		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-12.7107	0.0000	193.2
195		Florida Atlantic	SB	-12.8586	0.0000	188.0
196		Hampton	MEAC	-13.0591	0.0000	215.2
197		Bowling Green	MAC	-13.0815	0.0000	194.0
198		Delaware	CAA	-13.1657	0.0000	190.7
199	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-13.1687	0.0000	211.8
200		Georgia Southern	SC	-13.3856	0.0000	205.7
201		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-13.4888	0.0000	213.3
202		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-13.4951	0.0000	208.5
203		St. Bonaventure	A10	-13.5143	0.0000	194.4
204		Stetson	ASun	-13.6694	0.0000	204.7
205		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-13.8211	0.0000	206.1
206		Montana St.	BSky	-13.9778	0.0000	221.2
207		Stony Brook	AE	-13.9823	0.0000	220.1
208		Idaho St.	BSky	-13.9842	0.0000	209.1
209		Robert Morris	NEC	-14.0140	0.0000	221.1
210		Florida International	SB	-14.0356	0.0000	200.1
211		Southern Utah	Sum	-14.0756	0.0000	224.2
212		Towson	CAA	-14.2158	0.0000	196.1
213		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-14.3313	0.0000	209.9
214		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-14.4184	0.0000	223.1
215		Montana	BSky	-14.5257	0.0000	228.9
216		Maine	AE	-14.5697	0.0000	220.0
217		Holy Cross	Pat	-14.5865	0.0000	233.1
218		Wagner	NEC	-14.7836	0.0000	231.6
219		Texas St.	Slnd	-14.8052	0.0000	235.4
220		Wright St.	Horz	-14.8786	0.0000	211.5
221		Sacred Heart	NEC	-14.9640	0.0000	230.4
222		Ball St.	MAC	-15.1086	0.0000	219.8
223		Quinnipiac	NEC	-15.2609	0.0000	243.5
224		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-15.3750	0.0000	229.8
225		William & Mary	CAA	-15.3790	0.0000	223.5
226		Northern Iowa	MVC	-15.4263	0.0000	203.3
227		Brown	Ivy	-15.5098	0.0000	230.2
228		Northern Arizona	BSky	-15.5134	0.0000	234.0
229		McNeese St.	Slnd	-15.5824	0.0000	238.2
230		Cal Poly	BW	-15.6009	0.0000	233.1
231		Rice	CUSA	-15.7941	0.0000	216.3
232		Bucknell	Pat	-15.8232	0.0000	240.6
233		Northern Colorado	BSky	-15.8651	0.0000	240.2
234		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-15.9940	0.0000	225.6
235		UC Riverside	BW	-16.0421	0.0000	241.6
236		James Madison	CAA	-16.0949	0.0000	224.8
237	X	Jackson St.	SWAC	-16.1187	0.0000	248.6
238		St. Francis NY	NEC	-16.1499	0.0000	243.6
239		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-16.1931	0.0000	243.9
240		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-16.2845	0.0000	241.3
241		Georgia St.	CAA	-16.2892	0.0000	231.0
242		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-16.3404	0.0000	250.9
243		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-16.3904	0.0000	245.9
244		Coppin St.	MEAC	-16.5434	0.0000	251.5
245		Harvard	Ivy	-16.5615	0.0000	253.9
246		Savannah St.	ind	-16.6484	0.0000	241.6
247		Tulane	CUSA	-16.6906	0.0000	224.5
248		Campbell	ASun	-16.7685	0.0000	252.8
249		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-16.8457	0.0000	242.5
250		Lipscomb	ASun	-16.8688	0.0000	257.1
251		Marist	MAAC	-16.8776	0.0000	241.7
252		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-16.8848	0.0000	238.5
253		Valparaiso	Horz	-16.9167	0.0000	240.4
254		NC Asheville	BSth	-17.2821	0.0000	264.3
255		Central Michigan	MAC	-17.3239	0.0000	251.0
256		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-17.4303	0.0000	264.6
257		Long Island	NEC	-17.4963	0.0000	270.1
258		Loyola MD	MAAC	-17.5834	0.0000	234.6
259		Detroit	Horz	-17.5921	0.0000	250.7
260		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-17.6922	0.0000	230.7
261		Toledo	MAC	-17.6983	0.0000	253.7
262		Indiana St.	MVC	-18.0736	0.0000	235.8
263		Western Michigan	MAC	-18.1128	0.0000	260.8
264		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-18.2542	0.0000	263.6
265		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-18.3361	0.0000	262.5
266		St. Francis PA	NEC	-18.3960	0.0000	266.5
267		Canisius	MAAC	-18.4011	0.0000	249.2
268		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-18.4182	0.0000	284.6
269		Troy	SB	-18.4617	0.0000	253.5
270		Yale	Ivy	-18.5725	0.0000	277.4
271		Lafayette	Pat	-18.7366	0.0000	275.9
272		Delaware St.	MEAC	-18.7448	0.0000	274.4
273		Princeton	Ivy	-18.8381	0.0000	283.0
274		IUPUI	Sum	-18.8612	0.0000	277.7
275		Winthrop	BSth	-19.0275	0.0000	267.5
276		Samford	SC	-19.1096	0.0000	271.3
277		New Hampshire	AE	-19.2852	0.0000	275.9
278		Elon	SC	-19.3025	0.0000	267.7
279		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-19.3353	0.0000	295.8
280		Chicago St.	ind	-19.3707	0.0000	288.8
281		Radford	BSth	-19.3871	0.0000	283.1
282		Columbia	Ivy	-19.4017	0.0000	284.5
283		UC Davis	BW	-19.4142	0.0000	286.2
284		New Orleans	SB	-19.4864	0.0000	277.1
285		Hartford	AE	-19.5473	0.0000	268.8
286		Alabama St.	SWAC	-19.5948	0.0000	293.1
287		Morehead St.	OVC	-19.5983	0.0000	278.3
288		Army	Pat	-19.8688	0.0000	293.3
289		NC Wilmington	CAA	-19.8771	0.0000	259.1
290		Denver	SB	-20.0447	0.0000	291.8
291		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-20.0728	0.0000	287.1
292		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-20.2202	0.0000	279.3
293		Tennessee St.	OVC	-20.2403	0.0000	279.8
294		The Citadel	SC	-20.2496	0.0000	272.3
295		St. Peter's	MAAC	-20.3059	0.0000	279.7
296		Oregon St.	P10	-20.3242	0.0000	237.5
297		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-20.4601	0.0000	297.2
298		Charleston Southern	BSth	-20.4793	0.0000	291.5
299		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-20.5105	0.0000	304.6
300		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-20.5162	0.0000	304.7
301		Longwood	ind	-20.5263	0.0000	299.4
302		Northern Illinois	MAC	-20.6779	0.0000	298.3
303		UC Irvine	BW	-20.7668	0.0000	287.2
304		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-21.0060	0.0000	304.6
305		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-21.0988	0.0000	302.3
306		Colgate	Pat	-21.1493	0.0000	304.8
307		South Dakota St.	Sum	-21.2905	0.0000	305.7
308		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-21.3451	0.0000	295.9
309		Bryant	ind	-21.4157	0.0000	310.5
310		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-21.5488	0.0000	292.1
311		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-21.5846	0.0000	303.1
312		Texas Pan American	ind	-21.6231	0.0000	321.0
313		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-21.7131	0.0000	302.1
314		Texas Southern	SWAC	-22.0238	0.0000	314.6
315		Winston Salem St.	ind	-22.0360	0.0000	317.2
316		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-22.1279	0.0000	304.9
317		Youngstown St.	Horz	-22.5193	0.0000	305.3
318		Fordham	A10	-22.6578	0.0000	293.4
319		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-22.6787	0.0000	303.6
320		Furman	SC	-22.6948	0.0000	301.7
321		Dartmouth	Ivy	-22.7572	0.0000	321.5
322		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-22.7766	0.0000	325.3
323		Pepperdine	WCC	-22.9461	0.0000	306.3
324		Sacramento St.	BSky	-23.0241	0.0000	324.6
325		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-23.1634	0.0000	313.3
326		Houston Baptist	ind	-23.2861	0.0000	324.8
327		Southern	SWAC	-23.3297	0.0000	335.8
328		Monmouth	NEC	-23.3432	0.0000	319.6
329		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-23.4036	0.0000	318.4
330		Howard	MEAC	-23.4071	0.0000	331.1
331		Centenary	Sum	-23.4979	0.0000	318.9
332		Western Illinois	Sum	-23.5085	0.0000	327.1
333		Florida A&M	MEAC	-23.5228	0.0000	316.2
334		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-23.6943	0.0000	322.1
335		High Point	BSth	-23.8545	0.0000	330.2
336		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-23.9573	0.0000	338.6
337		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-24.4101	0.0000	342.2
338		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-24.5795	0.0000	321.6
339		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-24.6150	0.0000	340.3
340		Grambling	SWAC	-25.0387	0.0000	341.4
341		NC Greensboro	SC	-25.1277	0.0000	325.7
342		North Florida	ASun	-25.5823	0.0000	337.5
343		North Carolina Central	ind	-25.7361	0.0000	337.6

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com