Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Jan 12, 2008.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	10.0489	1.0000	1.3
2	X	Kansas	B12	8.5074	1.0000	5.2
3		Duke	ACC	8.2241	1.0000	4.0
4	X	Memphis	CUSA	8.1697	1.0000	3.5
5	X	UCLA	P10	7.9599	1.0000	7.6
6	X	Tennessee	SEC	7.9166	1.0000	2.9
7		Marquette	BE	6.8858	1.0000	9.8
8	X	Xavier	A10	6.4083	1.0000	8.2
9		Indiana	B10	5.3645	1.0000	18.1
10		Washington St.	P10	5.3346	1.0000	19.3
11		Georgetown	BE	5.2668	1.0000	16.4
12		Mississippi	SEC	5.2056	1.0000	15.1
13	X	West Virginia	BE	4.8986	1.0000	17.1
14	X	Wisconsin	B10	4.8320	1.0000	18.0
15		Texas A&M	B12	4.7414	1.0000	19.0
16		Michigan St.	B10	4.6382	1.0000	19.6
17		Texas	B12	4.5141	1.0000	13.2
18		Dayton	A10	4.4131	1.0000	16.7
19		Pittsburgh	BE	4.4122	1.0000	18.6
20		Clemson	ACC	4.3301	1.0000	24.4
21		Rhode Island	A10	4.2913	1.0000	22.7
22	X	Butler	Horz	4.0053	1.0000	31.9
23	X	Drake	MVC	3.6708	0.9999	24.4
24		Ohio St.	B10	3.4747	0.9997	24.9
25		Miami FL	ACC	3.2474	0.9994	26.7
26	X	St. Mary's	WCC	3.2037	0.9993	32.7
27		Arizona	P10	3.0806	0.9990	17.7
28		Arkansas	SEC	2.9580	0.9985	29.1
29		Gonzaga	WCC	2.9449	0.9984	37.2
30		Oklahoma	B12	2.5989	0.9953	27.4
31		Notre Dame	BE	2.3254	0.9900	37.8
32		Vanderbilt	SEC	2.1123	0.9827	27.1
33		Connecticut	BE	2.1092	0.9825	28.6
34		Louisville	BE	1.9850	0.9764	34.4
35		Duquesne	A10	1.9476	0.9743	40.6
36		Stanford	P10	1.9367	0.9736	36.8
37		Oregon	P10	1.8353	0.9668	36.7
38		Florida	SEC	1.4326	0.9240	41.5
39		Syracuse	BE	1.4004	0.9193	33.0
40		Florida St.	ACC	1.2402	0.8926	35.5
41		Kansas St.	B12	0.9773	0.8358	37.6
42		Missouri	B12	0.9177	0.8206	40.8
43		Illinois St.	MVC	0.7478	0.7727	50.6
44	X	South Alabama	SB	0.6102	0.7291	55.5
45		Mississippi St.	SEC	0.6079	0.7284	40.9
46		Baylor	B12	0.4079	0.6583	42.9
47		California	P10	0.3496	0.6367	39.9
48		Brigham Young	MWC	0.2798	0.6102	54.2
49	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.1775	0.5704	44.3
50		Creighton	MVC	0.0440	0.5175	52.4
51		Southern California	P10	-0.2182	0.4136	52.9
52		Utah	MWC	-0.2451	0.4032	52.1
53		UAB	CUSA	-0.4354	0.3316	54.4
54		Arizona St.	P10	-0.4438	0.3286	55.1
55		Minnesota	B10	-0.4773	0.3166	53.2
56		New Mexico	MWC	-0.5098	0.3051	58.7
57		Providence	BE	-0.6178	0.2684	55.1
58		Saint Joseph's	A10	-0.7116	0.2384	52.5
59		Kent St.	MAC	-0.8299	0.2033	68.2
60	X	Davidson	SC	-1.3401	0.0901	82.7
61	X	Miami OH	MAC	-1.4375	0.0753	69.2
62		George Mason	CAA	-1.4714	0.0706	75.7
63		Massachusetts	A10	-1.5213	0.0641	59.0
64		Akron	MAC	-1.5572	0.0597	77.1
65	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-1.8447	0.0325	79.6
66		Ohio	MAC	-1.8461	0.0324	69.8
67	X	Cal St. Northridge	BW	-1.8803	0.0300	76.9
68	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-1.9445	0.0259	76.5
69	X	IUPUI	Sum	-1.9603	0.0250	92.8
70	X	Siena	MAAC	-1.9773	0.0240	83.2
71		Cleveland St.	Horz	-2.1164	0.0172	71.6
72		Western Kentucky	SB	-2.3139	0.0103	81.8
73		San Diego St.	MWC	-2.7165	0.0033	71.9
74		North Texas	SB	-2.7329	0.0031	90.5
75		Oral Roberts	Sum	-2.7472	0.0030	94.6
76		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-2.7780	0.0027	86.1
77		Villanova	BE	-2.8311	0.0023	72.9
78		Valparaiso	Horz	-2.8725	0.0020	82.1
79		Boston College	ACC	-2.9129	0.0018	66.0
80		Virginia	ACC	-3.0801	0.0010	73.6
81		Maryland	ACC	-3.1588	0.0008	65.0
82		Niagara	MAAC	-3.2473	0.0006	92.0
83		Virginia Tech	ACC	-3.3531	0.0004	80.9
84		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-3.4237	0.0003	92.1
85		Nevada	WAC	-3.4628	0.0003	86.4
86		Houston	CUSA	-3.5332	0.0002	83.6
87		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-3.5821	0.0002	98.3
88		Southern Illinois	MVC	-3.7497	0.0001	86.1
89		Charlotte	A10	-3.8816	0.0001	95.0
90		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-3.9858	0.0000	83.7
91	X	Winthrop	BSth	-4.0398	0.0000	108.3
92		Nebraska	B12	-4.4303	0.0000	92.2
93		Oklahoma St.	B12	-4.4428	0.0000	82.5
94		Georgia Southern	SC	-4.4482	0.0000	104.1
95	X	Texas Arlington	Slnd	-4.4972	0.0000	108.7
96		Chattanooga	SC	-4.5149	0.0000	103.4
97		Purdue	B10	-4.5323	0.0000	100.6
98		Illinois	B10	-4.6254	0.0000	90.0
99		Alabama	SEC	-4.6778	0.0000	78.5
100		North Carolina St.	ACC	-4.7676	0.0000	87.6
101		Central Florida	CUSA	-4.8594	0.0000	99.3
102	X	MD Baltimore County	AE	-4.9840	0.0000	118.3
103		South Florida	BE	-5.1680	0.0000	95.5
104		Hampton	MEAC	-5.1905	0.0000	116.0
105		Kentucky	SEC	-5.2385	0.0000	93.7
106		Temple	A10	-5.3162	0.0000	95.5
107		Georgia Tech	ACC	-5.3337	0.0000	94.1
108		Wake Forest	ACC	-5.3830	0.0000	100.4
109		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-5.4234	0.0000	114.7
110		Texas Tech	B12	-5.7291	0.0000	90.1
111		Washington	P10	-5.7332	0.0000	91.1
112	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-5.9865	0.0000	114.5
113		Boise St.	WAC	-5.9934	0.0000	128.0
114		Utah St.	WAC	-6.0594	0.0000	122.0
115		Penn St.	B10	-6.0772	0.0000	107.9
116		James Madison	CAA	-6.2347	0.0000	131.4
117		Marist	MAAC	-6.3873	0.0000	119.4
118		Wright St.	Horz	-6.4117	0.0000	120.9
119		NC Asheville	BSth	-6.4141	0.0000	130.9
120		Seton Hall	BE	-6.4280	0.0000	96.2
121	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-6.5923	0.0000	137.8
122		South Carolina	SEC	-6.6301	0.0000	100.2
123		Tulsa	CUSA	-6.8220	0.0000	119.7
124		Appalachian St.	SC	-6.8617	0.0000	138.1
125		Northern Arizona	BSky	-7.0595	0.0000	142.4
126		American	Pat	-7.1009	0.0000	140.4
127		Cincinnati	BE	-7.1351	0.0000	120.4
128	X	Brown	Ivy	-7.2488	0.0000	131.7
129		Pacific	BW	-7.4286	0.0000	137.8
130		Lafayette	Pat	-7.4773	0.0000	141.0
131	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-7.5466	0.0000	147.2
132		Old Dominion	CAA	-7.7061	0.0000	133.5
133		Georgia	SEC	-7.7619	0.0000	120.7
134		Marshall	CUSA	-7.7633	0.0000	128.9
135	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-7.8375	0.0000	151.2
136		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-7.8421	0.0000	127.9
137		Belmont	ASun	-8.2056	0.0000	162.5
138		Missouri St.	MVC	-8.3102	0.0000	120.2
139		Tulane	CUSA	-8.3408	0.0000	131.5
140		DePaul	BE	-8.3589	0.0000	123.9
141		Cornell	Ivy	-8.4027	0.0000	154.4
142		Wagner	NEC	-8.4645	0.0000	157.4
143		Wichita St.	MVC	-8.5036	0.0000	125.5
144		Fresno St.	WAC	-8.5164	0.0000	136.5
145		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-8.5470	0.0000	136.0
146		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-8.5808	0.0000	140.0
147		Indiana St.	MVC	-8.6745	0.0000	136.0
148		Delaware	CAA	-8.7316	0.0000	156.0
149		Rider	MAAC	-8.7525	0.0000	153.2
150	X	Portland St.	BSky	-8.7912	0.0000	165.3
151		NC Greensboro	SC	-9.0156	0.0000	155.6
152		St. John's	BE	-9.3413	0.0000	120.7
153	X	East Tennessee St.	ASun	-9.3745	0.0000	158.7
154		Northern Iowa	MVC	-9.4738	0.0000	148.7
155		Central Michigan	MAC	-9.5729	0.0000	156.7
156		Long Island	NEC	-9.6393	0.0000	162.2
157		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-9.7838	0.0000	146.2
158		Richmond	A10	-10.0928	0.0000	150.7
159		UC Irvine	BW	-10.2318	0.0000	158.0
160		Oakland	Sum	-10.4181	0.0000	175.2
161		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-10.4901	0.0000	174.6
162		Iowa St.	B12	-10.6809	0.0000	136.1
163		Yale	Ivy	-10.7820	0.0000	175.3
164		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-10.8095	0.0000	182.3
165		Auburn	SEC	-10.8589	0.0000	143.9
166		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-10.8761	0.0000	169.4
167		William & Mary	CAA	-11.0351	0.0000	179.8
168		Bradley	MVC	-11.0383	0.0000	148.6
169		College of Charleston	SC	-11.0958	0.0000	172.0
170		Louisiana St.	SEC	-11.1320	0.0000	143.6
171		New Orleans	SB	-11.1467	0.0000	174.0
172		Montana St.	BSky	-11.2873	0.0000	179.9
173		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-11.3296	0.0000	185.6
174		St. Louis	A10	-11.4298	0.0000	155.1
175		Fordham	A10	-11.5511	0.0000	158.3
176		Santa Clara	WCC	-11.6654	0.0000	171.0
177		Michigan	B10	-11.7155	0.0000	154.1
178		Murray St.	OVC	-11.8977	0.0000	196.3
179		Troy	SB	-12.1872	0.0000	182.1
180		Jacksonville	ASun	-12.1939	0.0000	199.9
181		Middle Tennessee	SB	-12.2693	0.0000	181.9
182		Quinnipiac	NEC	-12.4080	0.0000	207.1
183		Northeastern	CAA	-12.5839	0.0000	183.2
184		Colorado	B12	-12.7844	0.0000	162.4
185		Bucknell	Pat	-12.8598	0.0000	197.7
186		San Jose St.	WAC	-12.8805	0.0000	201.9
187		Montana	BSky	-12.8981	0.0000	205.7
188		Albany	AE	-12.9984	0.0000	210.7
189		Western Michigan	MAC	-13.0507	0.0000	202.1
190		Colgate	Pat	-13.2105	0.0000	198.2
191		San Diego	WCC	-13.2227	0.0000	177.8
192		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-13.2458	0.0000	190.8
193		George Washington	A10	-13.2564	0.0000	183.2
194		Iowa	B10	-13.2894	0.0000	184.0
195		Fairfield	MAAC	-13.3723	0.0000	203.7
196		High Point	BSth	-13.4352	0.0000	210.8
197		Gardner Webb	ASun	-13.4934	0.0000	213.5
198		Sacred Heart	NEC	-13.6376	0.0000	220.1
199		Toledo	MAC	-13.6594	0.0000	198.8
200		Weber St.	BSky	-13.7295	0.0000	210.4
201		NC Wilmington	CAA	-13.7370	0.0000	200.2
202		Youngstown St.	Horz	-13.9739	0.0000	188.9
203		North Dakota St.	Sum	-14.0094	0.0000	207.0
204		Texas Christian	MWC	-14.0618	0.0000	185.0
205		Air Force	MWC	-14.1482	0.0000	193.7
206		Liberty	BSth	-14.3085	0.0000	220.1
207		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-14.4590	0.0000	233.7
208		Hartford	AE	-14.6032	0.0000	214.8
209		Pepperdine	WCC	-14.6945	0.0000	199.9
210		McNeese St.	Slnd	-14.7869	0.0000	227.3
211		East Carolina	CUSA	-14.8055	0.0000	215.8
212		Lamar	Slnd	-14.8664	0.0000	226.4
213		Drexel	CAA	-14.8687	0.0000	205.1
214		Colorado St.	MWC	-14.9016	0.0000	183.8
215		Loyola MD	MAAC	-14.9771	0.0000	221.7
216		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-15.2322	0.0000	231.3
217		Vermont	AE	-15.2370	0.0000	231.7
218		Columbia	Ivy	-15.2428	0.0000	234.4
219		Lipscomb	ASun	-15.2596	0.0000	237.9
220		Tennessee St.	OVC	-15.2635	0.0000	237.9
221		Buffalo	MAC	-15.2716	0.0000	208.9
222	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-15.2760	0.0000	251.4
223		Bowling Green	MAC	-15.2793	0.0000	212.4
224		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-15.3266	0.0000	238.8
225		Denver	SB	-15.3456	0.0000	229.4
226		La Salle	A10	-15.4566	0.0000	211.6
227		Wofford	SC	-15.4680	0.0000	219.4
228		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-15.5909	0.0000	228.7
229		Arkansas St.	SB	-15.6527	0.0000	231.1
230		Binghamton	AE	-15.7438	0.0000	247.1
231		Chicago St.	ind	-15.7497	0.0000	219.0
232		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-15.8198	0.0000	259.4
233		Rutgers	BE	-15.8474	0.0000	187.6
234		Central Connecticut	NEC	-15.9805	0.0000	243.2
235		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-16.0051	0.0000	244.2
236		Northwestern	B10	-16.0637	0.0000	201.0
237		Northern Colorado	BSky	-16.1268	0.0000	249.1
238		Manhattan	MAAC	-16.2437	0.0000	241.2
239		Elon	SC	-16.5275	0.0000	236.8
240		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-16.5566	0.0000	247.1
241		Cal Poly	BW	-16.5775	0.0000	228.6
242		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-16.5863	0.0000	251.3
243		Towson	CAA	-16.6026	0.0000	244.4
244		Iona	MAAC	-16.7315	0.0000	236.1
245		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-16.8469	0.0000	229.1
246		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-16.8485	0.0000	248.2
247		Harvard	Ivy	-16.8625	0.0000	247.6
248		Wyoming	MWC	-16.8951	0.0000	207.9
249		Lehigh	Pat	-17.0186	0.0000	249.7
250		St. Bonaventure	A10	-17.0424	0.0000	222.7
251		Hawaii	WAC	-17.3456	0.0000	246.8
252		Delaware St.	MEAC	-17.4229	0.0000	255.4
253		Utah Valley St.	ind	-17.4831	0.0000	268.1
254		Morehead St.	OVC	-17.6070	0.0000	262.5
255		Hofstra	CAA	-17.6113	0.0000	249.8
256		Army	Pat	-17.6300	0.0000	253.7
257		Western Illinois	Sum	-17.7877	0.0000	251.9
258		Portland	WCC	-17.7882	0.0000	243.6
259		Boston University	AE	-17.8952	0.0000	259.3
260		Evansville	MVC	-17.9751	0.0000	228.0
261		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-18.1146	0.0000	255.2
262		Oregon St.	P10	-18.1291	0.0000	213.2
263		Navy	Pat	-18.2013	0.0000	267.5
264		New Hampshire	AE	-18.2513	0.0000	270.7
265		Campbell	ASun	-18.2838	0.0000	278.8
266		Jackson St.	SWAC	-18.4101	0.0000	272.7
267		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-18.4760	0.0000	253.0
268		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-18.4948	0.0000	278.9
269		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-18.4997	0.0000	268.7
270		Florida International	SB	-18.5499	0.0000	248.3
271		Southern Utah	Sum	-18.5543	0.0000	260.6
272		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-18.8037	0.0000	266.1
273		San Francisco	WCC	-18.9182	0.0000	250.7
274		St. Francis NY	NEC	-18.9488	0.0000	278.8
275		Stetson	ASun	-19.1166	0.0000	274.8
276		Eastern Washington	BSky	-19.1514	0.0000	273.2
277		Mercer	ASun	-19.2737	0.0000	293.1
278		St. Peter's	MAAC	-19.3105	0.0000	268.2
279		UC Davis	BW	-19.3783	0.0000	270.2
280		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-19.5870	0.0000	297.0
281		Georgia St.	CAA	-19.7156	0.0000	274.5
282		Savannah St.	ind	-19.8471	0.0000	286.2
283		Detroit	Horz	-19.9353	0.0000	265.6
284		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-20.0876	0.0000	281.1
285		Florida Atlantic	SB	-20.1025	0.0000	265.1
286		Coppin St.	MEAC	-20.1141	0.0000	280.5
287		Southern	SWAC	-20.1180	0.0000	293.9
288		Samford	OVC	-20.2275	0.0000	295.2
289		Texas Pan American	ind	-20.2365	0.0000	304.7
290		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-20.2761	0.0000	270.7
291		Texas St.	Slnd	-20.3747	0.0000	289.1
292		Dartmouth	Ivy	-20.4330	0.0000	297.5
293		Centenary	Sum	-20.5098	0.0000	283.2
294		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-20.5750	0.0000	297.4
295		Princeton	Ivy	-20.6097	0.0000	298.5
296		South Dakota St.	Sum	-20.7439	0.0000	289.9
297		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-20.8823	0.0000	306.5
298		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-21.0483	0.0000	302.6
299		Ball St.	MAC	-21.1877	0.0000	279.9
300		Long Beach St.	BW	-21.2727	0.0000	288.5
301		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-21.3121	0.0000	315.6
302		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-21.3493	0.0000	310.2
303		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-21.4035	0.0000	317.9
304		Idaho St.	BSky	-21.4718	0.0000	301.7
305		Texas Southern	SWAC	-21.5069	0.0000	309.2
306		Rice	CUSA	-21.5501	0.0000	277.7
307		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-21.6042	0.0000	298.1
308		St. Francis PA	NEC	-21.6053	0.0000	303.0
309		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-21.6945	0.0000	310.8
310		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-21.7209	0.0000	290.4
311		Western Carolina	SC	-21.8219	0.0000	294.3
312		Radford	BSth	-21.8917	0.0000	312.1
313		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-22.0351	0.0000	304.1
314		Monmouth	NEC	-22.0545	0.0000	309.2
315		Maine	AE	-22.2414	0.0000	311.8
316		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-22.3378	0.0000	304.2
317		Florida A&M	MEAC	-22.4265	0.0000	307.4
318		Idaho	WAC	-22.6010	0.0000	306.2
319		Northern Illinois	MAC	-22.7121	0.0000	299.4
320		Stony Brook	AE	-22.7695	0.0000	322.1
321		Longwood	ind	-22.8845	0.0000	328.1
322		Charleston Southern	BSth	-23.1400	0.0000	322.1
323		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-23.2977	0.0000	312.5
324		Sacramento St.	BSky	-23.3591	0.0000	319.9
325		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-23.7079	0.0000	335.0
326		UC Riverside	BW	-23.7958	0.0000	303.2
327		Presbyterian	ind	-23.7966	0.0000	327.4
328		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.8864	0.0000	336.7
329		Canisius	MAAC	-23.9117	0.0000	319.6
330		Furman	SC	-23.9369	0.0000	319.4
331		North Carolina Central	ind	-23.9806	0.0000	322.4
332		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-24.0834	0.0000	340.4
333		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-24.1011	0.0000	336.9
334		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-24.3070	0.0000	334.7
335		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-24.3720	0.0000	335.1
336		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-24.4555	0.0000	334.0
337		Howard	MEAC	-24.5722	0.0000	328.4
338		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-24.7580	0.0000	310.1
339		Grambling	SWAC	-25.2300	0.0000	340.1
340		The Citadel	SC	-25.3483	0.0000	327.5
341		North Florida	ASun	-25.5197	0.0000	338.1

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com