Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Feb 12, 2008.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	Duke	ACC	10.1036	1.0000	2.0
2		North Carolina	ACC	9.3352	1.0000	2.8
3	X	Tennessee	SEC	9.0856	1.0000	2.3
4	X	Memphis	CUSA	8.8278	1.0000	3.0
5	X	Kansas	B12	8.1114	1.0000	5.6
6	X	UCLA	P10	7.8029	1.0000	6.9
7		Indiana	B10	6.5429	1.0000	15.6
8	X	Drake	MVC	6.4338	1.0000	10.3
9	X	Xavier	A10	6.3097	1.0000	9.2
10		Georgetown	BE	6.2093	1.0000	11.3
11		Texas	B12	5.9869	1.0000	8.0
12		Stanford	P10	5.2029	1.0000	19.4
13		Connecticut	BE	5.1057	1.0000	13.0
14		Michigan St.	B10	4.9885	1.0000	17.4
15	X	Butler	Horz	4.6890	1.0000	23.8
16		Louisville	BE	4.5987	1.0000	12.6
17		Arizona	P10	4.3814	1.0000	15.7
18		Notre Dame	BE	4.3584	1.0000	27.2
19		Washington St.	P10	4.1958	1.0000	25.1
20		Clemson	ACC	4.0259	1.0000	24.0
21		Texas A&M	B12	3.9405	1.0000	23.2
22		St. Mary's	WCC	3.9328	1.0000	28.5
23		Marquette	BE	3.8548	0.9999	22.3
24	X	Wisconsin	B10	3.6100	0.9998	17.6
25		Vanderbilt	SEC	3.6012	0.9998	16.9
26		Kansas St.	B12	3.5714	0.9998	20.6
27		Arkansas	SEC	3.5495	0.9998	25.9
28		Pittsburgh	BE	3.4221	0.9997	23.1
29		Southern California	P10	3.1715	0.9992	33.4
30	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	2.6210	0.9956	33.0
31	X	West Virginia	BE	2.6118	0.9955	32.4
32		Rhode Island	A10	2.6028	0.9954	32.3
33		Purdue	B10	2.5203	0.9941	43.9
34	X	Gonzaga	WCC	2.4180	0.9922	36.3
35		Ohio St.	B10	2.1420	0.9839	35.3
36		Mississippi	SEC	1.7753	0.9621	34.4
37		Baylor	B12	1.7171	0.9570	32.5
38		Brigham Young	MWC	1.6385	0.9493	42.7
39	X	South Alabama	SB	1.6139	0.9467	43.5
40		Florida	SEC	1.5124	0.9348	38.4
41		Oklahoma	B12	1.3457	0.9108	38.1
42		Dayton	A10	1.1755	0.8801	35.2
43		Illinois St.	MVC	0.9601	0.8315	50.2
44		Massachusetts	A10	0.8239	0.7950	45.1
45		Mississippi St.	SEC	0.7334	0.7683	40.7
46	X	Davidson	SC	0.7004	0.7582	57.7
47		Maryland	ACC	0.6508	0.7424	42.0
48		Miami FL	ACC	0.5820	0.7197	41.6
49		Kent St.	MAC	0.4628	0.6783	58.4
50	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.2076	0.5822	58.4
51		Houston	CUSA	0.2074	0.5821	48.0
52		Syracuse	BE	0.1322	0.5526	36.4
53		Saint Joseph's	A10	0.0281	0.5112	50.4
54		George Mason	CAA	-0.0245	0.4902	64.1
55		Creighton	MVC	-0.0251	0.4900	51.4
56		Western Kentucky	SB	-0.2303	0.4089	58.4
57		UAB	CUSA	-0.3779	0.3527	59.1
58		Oral Roberts	Sum	-0.4213	0.3368	67.2
59		Oregon	P10	-0.4600	0.3228	52.0
60		North Carolina St.	ACC	-0.5213	0.3011	60.3
61		Ohio	MAC	-0.6185	0.2681	63.9
62	X	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-1.1218	0.1310	70.7
63		Southern Illinois	MVC	-1.5661	0.0587	66.6
64		New Mexico	MWC	-1.5768	0.0574	63.5
65		California	P10	-1.6830	0.0462	58.5
66		Florida St.	ACC	-1.7629	0.0390	61.2
67		Kentucky	SEC	-1.8669	0.0310	63.6
68		Wright St.	Horz	-1.9058	0.0283	75.9
69		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-2.1064	0.0176	81.7
70		Texas Tech	B12	-2.1281	0.0167	62.0
71	X	Siena	MAAC	-2.1378	0.0163	77.4
72		Arizona St.	P10	-2.1540	0.0156	70.0
73	X	IUPUI	Sum	-2.3314	0.0099	93.0
74		Georgia Tech	ACC	-2.4705	0.0067	74.9
75		Duquesne	A10	-2.6127	0.0045	73.9
76		Utah St.	WAC	-2.7961	0.0026	91.7
77		San Diego St.	MWC	-2.8778	0.0020	73.5
78		Charlotte	A10	-2.9756	0.0015	83.4
79		Utah	MWC	-3.0659	0.0011	72.7
80		Missouri	B12	-3.1780	0.0007	72.6
81		Boise St.	WAC	-3.2557	0.0006	100.0
82		Nevada	WAC	-3.3861	0.0004	84.7
83		Cincinnati	BE	-3.3880	0.0004	85.7
84		Akron	MAC	-3.4848	0.0002	94.0
85		Temple	A10	-3.5253	0.0002	78.7
86	X	Miami OH	MAC	-3.5693	0.0002	82.2
87	X	Cornell	Ivy	-3.6939	0.0001	102.5
88		Virginia Tech	ACC	-3.7852	0.0001	82.8
89		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-3.8171	0.0001	101.6
90		NC Asheville	BSth	-4.1467	0.0000	108.7
91		Nebraska	B12	-4.1989	0.0000	93.1
92		Boston College	ACC	-4.2370	0.0000	79.2
93		Seton Hall	BE	-4.4143	0.0000	81.3
94		Villanova	BE	-4.4178	0.0000	85.3
95	X	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-4.4254	0.0000	103.7
96		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-4.4752	0.0000	104.2
97		Providence	BE	-4.6683	0.0000	78.1
98		Cleveland St.	Horz	-4.7266	0.0000	101.6
99		Wake Forest	ACC	-4.7577	0.0000	92.8
100		South Carolina	SEC	-5.0110	0.0000	85.3
101		Pacific	BW	-5.0389	0.0000	119.7
102	X	Winthrop	BSth	-5.0927	0.0000	114.7
103		Rider	MAAC	-5.1252	0.0000	119.4
104		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-5.3586	0.0000	92.8
105		Georgia Southern	SC	-5.5386	0.0000	111.0
106		Minnesota	B10	-5.5985	0.0000	94.0
107		Bradley	MVC	-5.6446	0.0000	102.3
108		Valparaiso	Horz	-5.7791	0.0000	116.8
109		Wagner	NEC	-5.8165	0.0000	132.6
110		Appalachian St.	SC	-5.9663	0.0000	126.5
111	X	MD Baltimore County	AE	-5.9955	0.0000	126.0
112	X	Belmont	ASun	-6.0544	0.0000	137.0
113		Northern Iowa	MVC	-6.0584	0.0000	115.8
114		Niagara	MAAC	-6.0994	0.0000	124.3
115		Washington	P10	-6.1178	0.0000	98.0
116	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-6.1683	0.0000	135.8
117		Illinois	B10	-6.2332	0.0000	95.8
118	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-6.3221	0.0000	122.2
119		American	Pat	-6.5815	0.0000	136.0
120	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-6.5882	0.0000	138.8
121		Georgia	SEC	-6.7008	0.0000	106.2
122		Chattanooga	SC	-6.7625	0.0000	118.5
123		Marshall	CUSA	-6.8892	0.0000	117.6
124		Central Florida	CUSA	-7.0418	0.0000	118.5
125		St. Louis	A10	-7.2439	0.0000	112.6
126		Alabama	SEC	-7.4348	0.0000	96.7
127		St. John's	BE	-7.4521	0.0000	105.7
128	X	Portland St.	BSky	-7.4645	0.0000	152.3
129		Marist	MAAC	-7.4657	0.0000	123.7
130		Old Dominion	CAA	-7.5353	0.0000	133.3
131		Richmond	A10	-7.5729	0.0000	135.0
132		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-7.7700	0.0000	129.8
133		San Diego	WCC	-7.7792	0.0000	122.1
134	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-7.8776	0.0000	152.6
135		Hampton	MEAC	-7.9047	0.0000	150.5
136	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-7.9353	0.0000	135.7
137		Lafayette	Pat	-7.9365	0.0000	143.7
138		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-7.9973	0.0000	138.4
139		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-8.0901	0.0000	136.9
140		Western Michigan	MAC	-8.1064	0.0000	156.3
141		Iowa St.	B12	-8.2046	0.0000	121.2
142		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-8.3457	0.0000	145.0
143		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-8.4104	0.0000	149.8
144		Brown	Ivy	-8.4490	0.0000	142.8
145		Tulane	CUSA	-8.6090	0.0000	133.9
146		North Texas	SB	-8.6735	0.0000	156.0
147		Oklahoma St.	B12	-8.6962	0.0000	117.8
148		Middle Tennessee	SB	-8.8015	0.0000	140.1
149		Northern Arizona	BSky	-8.8396	0.0000	161.1
150		Sacred Heart	NEC	-8.9071	0.0000	168.1
151		Lamar	Slnd	-8.9730	0.0000	158.2
152		Indiana St.	MVC	-9.1456	0.0000	141.1
153		Missouri St.	MVC	-9.1775	0.0000	127.1
154		NC Wilmington	CAA	-9.2425	0.0000	156.1
155		Virginia	ACC	-9.3314	0.0000	117.2
156		NC Greensboro	SC	-9.5689	0.0000	161.2
157		William & Mary	CAA	-9.6199	0.0000	163.0
158		Penn St.	B10	-9.6789	0.0000	138.0
159		Tulsa	CUSA	-9.8160	0.0000	148.6
160		DePaul	BE	-9.9634	0.0000	135.0
161		Colorado	B12	-10.0671	0.0000	149.5
162		Oakland	Sum	-10.0788	0.0000	171.0
163		Murray St.	OVC	-10.2434	0.0000	178.4
164		Iowa	B10	-10.2573	0.0000	149.5
165		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-10.9186	0.0000	160.3
166		Loyola MD	MAAC	-10.9276	0.0000	181.5
167		UC Irvine	BW	-10.9928	0.0000	170.5
168		Santa Clara	WCC	-11.0664	0.0000	165.6
169		Yale	Ivy	-11.3369	0.0000	182.5
170		New Orleans	SB	-11.4142	0.0000	175.7
171		South Florida	BE	-11.4198	0.0000	149.5
172		Wofford	SC	-11.4265	0.0000	181.1
173		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-11.4899	0.0000	188.9
174		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-11.5382	0.0000	183.5
175		Central Connecticut	NEC	-11.5399	0.0000	192.4
176		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-11.6800	0.0000	176.9
177		Quinnipiac	NEC	-11.7045	0.0000	199.1
178		Delaware	CAA	-11.7778	0.0000	182.1
179		Auburn	SEC	-11.9069	0.0000	151.3
180		Jacksonville	ASun	-11.9359	0.0000	196.3
181		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-12.0935	0.0000	202.6
182		Wichita St.	MVC	-12.1527	0.0000	163.0
183		Albany	AE	-12.2671	0.0000	201.5
184		Air Force	MWC	-12.3780	0.0000	169.3
185		Texas Christian	MWC	-12.4008	0.0000	170.6
186		Northeastern	CAA	-12.4100	0.0000	179.6
187		Long Island	NEC	-12.4257	0.0000	193.4
188		Bucknell	Pat	-12.4328	0.0000	197.4
189		James Madison	CAA	-12.4866	0.0000	189.6
190		Montana St.	BSky	-12.5010	0.0000	197.1
191		Fairfield	MAAC	-12.5498	0.0000	197.7
192		Vermont	AE	-12.6449	0.0000	207.2
193		Fresno St.	WAC	-12.6490	0.0000	176.6
194		College of Charleston	SC	-12.8504	0.0000	187.3
195		Bowling Green	MAC	-12.8635	0.0000	194.4
196		Fordham	A10	-12.8664	0.0000	169.8
197		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-13.0575	0.0000	206.2
198		Central Michigan	MAC	-13.0798	0.0000	199.3
199	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-13.1138	0.0000	225.7
200		Weber St.	BSky	-13.1375	0.0000	207.8
201		Montana	BSky	-13.4283	0.0000	209.6
202		Michigan	B10	-13.7280	0.0000	172.0
203		Hartford	AE	-13.7674	0.0000	216.7
204		Denver	SB	-13.7748	0.0000	211.0
205		San Jose St.	WAC	-13.8456	0.0000	205.8
206		Columbia	Ivy	-13.8632	0.0000	214.6
207		Delaware St.	MEAC	-14.0045	0.0000	216.4
208		Lehigh	Pat	-14.0242	0.0000	218.8
209		Colgate	Pat	-14.2049	0.0000	215.5
210		Toledo	MAC	-14.4297	0.0000	202.6
211		Army	Pat	-14.4571	0.0000	224.4
212		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-14.4922	0.0000	221.5
213		George Washington	A10	-14.5727	0.0000	195.1
214		Iona	MAAC	-14.6597	0.0000	221.1
215		East Carolina	CUSA	-14.7138	0.0000	218.5
216		Gardner Webb	ASun	-14.7339	0.0000	229.9
217		Hawaii	WAC	-14.8120	0.0000	214.9
218		Rutgers	BE	-14.8592	0.0000	186.8
219		Louisiana St.	SEC	-15.0071	0.0000	180.4
220		Liberty	BSth	-15.0871	0.0000	228.2
221		North Dakota St.	Sum	-15.0896	0.0000	219.1
222		Morehead St.	OVC	-15.1732	0.0000	234.9
223		Wyoming	MWC	-15.4775	0.0000	198.4
224		Lipscomb	ASun	-15.4851	0.0000	240.3
225		Cal Poly	BW	-15.4998	0.0000	220.0
226		High Point	BSth	-15.6407	0.0000	233.2
227		La Salle	A10	-15.7052	0.0000	207.3
228		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-15.7281	0.0000	235.2
229		Northwestern	B10	-16.0579	0.0000	201.3
230		Youngstown St.	Horz	-16.0945	0.0000	216.0
231		Chicago St.	ind	-16.0962	0.0000	236.6
232		Binghamton	AE	-16.1060	0.0000	250.9
233		Towson	CAA	-16.1377	0.0000	233.6
234		Florida Atlantic	SB	-16.1987	0.0000	224.4
235		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-16.3923	0.0000	235.9
236		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-16.7855	0.0000	236.2
237		Utah Valley St.	ind	-16.7953	0.0000	259.4
238		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-16.8529	0.0000	274.3
239		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-16.8698	0.0000	253.7
240		Drexel	CAA	-16.8864	0.0000	223.0
241		Troy	SB	-16.9419	0.0000	224.9
242		Hofstra	CAA	-16.9716	0.0000	243.4
243		Pepperdine	WCC	-17.0331	0.0000	224.6
244		Texas St.	Slnd	-17.0772	0.0000	255.5
245		Navy	Pat	-17.2463	0.0000	259.9
246		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-17.2832	0.0000	252.6
247		Elon	SC	-17.3311	0.0000	245.4
248		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-17.3587	0.0000	232.0
249		Buffalo	MAC	-17.3642	0.0000	231.6
250		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-17.4094	0.0000	254.9
251		Stetson	ASun	-17.4106	0.0000	254.1
252		Western Illinois	Sum	-17.8577	0.0000	254.0
253		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-17.8772	0.0000	247.5
254		St. Bonaventure	A10	-17.8978	0.0000	230.0
255		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-17.9046	0.0000	247.9
256		Boston University	AE	-18.0931	0.0000	266.5
257		Evansville	MVC	-18.2200	0.0000	233.1
258		Arkansas St.	SB	-18.2346	0.0000	261.5
259		Campbell	ASun	-18.3743	0.0000	272.7
260		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-18.5514	0.0000	245.3
261		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-18.6738	0.0000	273.7
262		Northern Colorado	BSky	-18.8098	0.0000	277.6
263		Samford	OVC	-18.8262	0.0000	281.7
264		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-18.8458	0.0000	280.7
265		Tennessee St.	OVC	-18.8468	0.0000	279.3
266		Florida International	SB	-18.9237	0.0000	243.8
267		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-18.9672	0.0000	260.3
268		Idaho St.	BSky	-18.9829	0.0000	274.7
269		Jackson St.	SWAC	-19.0527	0.0000	276.8
270		Harvard	Ivy	-19.2051	0.0000	275.8
271		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-19.2583	0.0000	277.6
272		Mercer	ASun	-19.4697	0.0000	296.8
273		Southern	SWAC	-19.4930	0.0000	286.6
274		Centenary	Sum	-19.5340	0.0000	273.3
275		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-19.6608	0.0000	286.0
276		Oregon St.	P10	-19.7129	0.0000	235.3
277		Southern Utah	Sum	-19.8500	0.0000	264.2
278		Northern Illinois	MAC	-19.8557	0.0000	266.1
279		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-19.8914	0.0000	296.6
280		Colorado St.	MWC	-19.8978	0.0000	237.3
281		San Francisco	WCC	-19.9154	0.0000	261.0
282		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-20.0018	0.0000	277.1
283		Princeton	Ivy	-20.0673	0.0000	289.6
284		Texas Pan American	ind	-20.0757	0.0000	310.6
285		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-20.0822	0.0000	294.0
286		Eastern Washington	BSky	-20.2522	0.0000	285.8
287		McNeese St.	Slnd	-20.2566	0.0000	284.7
288		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-20.3107	0.0000	296.0
289		Western Carolina	SC	-20.3497	0.0000	273.2
290		Detroit	Horz	-20.3783	0.0000	273.9
291		Savannah St.	ind	-20.4236	0.0000	296.9
292		Florida A&M	MEAC	-20.4749	0.0000	292.3
293		Manhattan	MAAC	-20.5021	0.0000	288.0
294		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-20.5373	0.0000	295.1
295		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-20.5856	0.0000	306.9
296		UC Davis	BW	-20.7709	0.0000	288.2
297		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-20.8052	0.0000	285.6
298		Georgia St.	CAA	-20.8468	0.0000	286.1
299		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-21.1240	0.0000	292.8
300		New Hampshire	AE	-21.1863	0.0000	304.1
301		Dartmouth	Ivy	-21.2694	0.0000	301.7
302		Ball St.	MAC	-21.6382	0.0000	281.2
303		Rice	CUSA	-21.7123	0.0000	276.6
304		South Dakota St.	Sum	-21.8525	0.0000	300.2
305		Portland	WCC	-21.9733	0.0000	285.1
306		Monmouth	NEC	-22.0930	0.0000	309.1
307		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-22.1394	0.0000	314.3
308		UC Riverside	BW	-22.1525	0.0000	289.1
309		Furman	SC	-22.2557	0.0000	301.5
310		St. Francis NY	NEC	-22.3045	0.0000	312.6
311		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-22.3536	0.0000	305.2
312		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-22.3665	0.0000	323.7
313		St. Francis PA	NEC	-22.4027	0.0000	314.2
314		Grambling	SWAC	-22.5894	0.0000	323.4
315		Radford	BSth	-22.5899	0.0000	317.8
316		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-22.5903	0.0000	317.0
317		St. Peter's	MAAC	-22.6165	0.0000	304.1
318		Long Beach St.	BW	-22.8395	0.0000	306.6
319		North Carolina Central	ind	-22.9449	0.0000	308.5
320		Maine	AE	-22.9702	0.0000	323.2
321		Longwood	ind	-23.1859	0.0000	333.7
322		Coppin St.	MEAC	-23.2762	0.0000	312.1
323		Texas Southern	SWAC	-23.2911	0.0000	318.3
324		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-23.4990	0.0000	297.7
325		Canisius	MAAC	-23.5956	0.0000	318.2
326		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-23.7500	0.0000	329.9
327		Howard	MEAC	-23.8170	0.0000	327.4
328		Sacramento St.	BSky	-23.9519	0.0000	329.5
329		Idaho	WAC	-23.9984	0.0000	315.2
330		Stony Brook	AE	-24.0169	0.0000	330.1
331		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-24.0182	0.0000	334.2
332		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-24.0636	0.0000	337.5
333		Charleston Southern	BSth	-24.2397	0.0000	331.4
334		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-24.3074	0.0000	341.0
335		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-24.4726	0.0000	338.7
336		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-24.5950	0.0000	319.9
337		Presbyterian	ind	-24.6174	0.0000	327.2
338		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-24.6600	0.0000	339.0
339		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-24.6856	0.0000	334.3
340		The Citadel	SC	-25.8523	0.0000	330.4
341		North Florida	ASun	-25.9475	0.0000	338.4

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com