Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Through games of Dec 12, 2006.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	Florida	SEC	8.3948	1.0000	4
2	X	Arizona	P10	7.9603	1.0000	3
3		UCLA	P10	7.5908	1.0000	4
4	X	North Carolina	ACC	6.7543	1.0000	7
5		Duke	ACC	6.5754	1.0000	4
6	X	Ohio St.	B10	6.2421	1.0000	9
7	X	Butler	Horz	5.3700	1.0000	23
8	X	Notre Dame	BE	5.3667	1.0000	24
9		Clemson	ACC	5.3487	1.0000	12
10	X	Wichita St.	MVC	5.1996	1.0000	20
11		Oregon	P10	5.1967	1.0000	18
12		Maryland	ACC	5.1693	1.0000	9
13		Connecticut	BE	4.8222	1.0000	22
14		Mississippi St.	SEC	4.6481	1.0000	18
15		Michigan St.	B10	4.6045	1.0000	16
16		Villanova	BE	4.4429	1.0000	12
17	X	Texas A&M	B12	4.3299	1.0000	21
18	X	Air Force	MWC	4.3006	1.0000	28
19		Pittsburgh	BE	4.2892	1.0000	15
20		Purdue	B10	4.0967	1.0000	25
21		Kansas	B12	3.9358	1.0000	32
22		Louisiana St.	SEC	3.9070	1.0000	25
23		Missouri St.	MVC	3.5116	0.9998	28
24	X	Gonzaga	WCC	3.3721	0.9996	33
25		Providence	BE	3.3351	0.9996	27
26		Tennessee	SEC	3.3079	0.9995	21
27	X	Xavier	A10	3.2489	0.9994	31
28		Illinois	B10	3.1114	0.9991	25
29		Oklahoma St.	B12	3.0842	0.9990	25
30	X	Western Kentucky	SB	3.0528	0.9989	34
31		Texas	B12	2.8878	0.9981	35
32		Wisconsin	B10	2.6863	0.9964	33
33	X	Memphis	CUSA	2.6845	0.9964	35
34		Florida St.	ACC	2.3640	0.9910	30
35		West Virginia	BE	2.2878	0.9889	36
36		Georgia	SEC	2.0188	0.9782	36
37		Marquette	BE	1.7513	0.9601	34
38		Boston College	ACC	1.6939	0.9549	34
39		Southern Illinois	MVC	1.6889	0.9544	39
40	X	Nevada	WAC	1.4097	0.9207	46
41		Missouri	B12	1.3998	0.9192	37
42		Drexel	CAA	1.3805	0.9163	51
43		Kentucky	SEC	1.3768	0.9157	36
44		Virginia Tech	ACC	1.3571	0.9126	41
45		Virginia	ACC	1.1029	0.8650	40
46		Arkansas	SEC	1.0514	0.8535	40
47		Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	1.0245	0.8472	40
48		Alabama	SEC	0.8223	0.7945	41
49		Georgia Tech	ACC	0.5046	0.6931	50
50		Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.4607	0.6775	53
51		San Diego St.	MWC	0.3630	0.6417	50
52	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.3211	0.6259	60
53		Oklahoma	B12	0.2672	0.6053	44
54		Indiana	B10	0.0920	0.5367	49
55		Syracuse	BE	-0.3096	0.3785	50
56		Bradley	MVC	-0.3146	0.3765	60
57		Michigan	B10	-0.5006	0.3083	51
58		Georgetown	BE	-0.8212	0.2058	55
59		California	P10	-0.8908	0.1865	55
60		Washington St.	P10	-1.1316	0.1289	63
61	X	Winthrop	BSth	-1.2089	0.1133	75
62		Illinois St.	MVC	-1.3531	0.0880	59
63		Seton Hall	BE	-2.0254	0.0214	61
64		Stanford	P10	-2.2749	0.0115	67
65		Dayton	A10	-2.2779	0.0114	72
66	X	Marist	MAAC	-2.3973	0.0083	91
67		St. Louis	A10	-2.4024	0.0081	74
68		Southern California	P10	-2.4732	0.0067	69
69		George Washington	A10	-2.5423	0.0055	81
70		Creighton	MVC	-2.5692	0.0051	68
71	X	Belmont	ASun	-2.6296	0.0043	100
72		Brigham Young	MWC	-2.7554	0.0029	72
73		Louisville	BE	-2.7756	0.0028	66
74	X	Kent St.	MAC	-3.0318	0.0012	90
75		Houston	CUSA	-3.0348	0.0012	72
76	X	UC Santa Barbara	BW	-3.1518	0.0008	98
77		Tulsa	CUSA	-3.2063	0.0007	78
78		Washington	P10	-3.2351	0.0006	71
79		Texas Tech	B12	-3.2955	0.0005	62
80		Utah St.	WAC	-3.3012	0.0005	84
81		Massachusetts	A10	-3.3984	0.0003	90
82		DePaul	BE	-3.4451	0.0003	74
83		UAB	CUSA	-3.5136	0.0002	83
84		Nebraska	B12	-3.5752	0.0002	81
85		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-3.8269	0.0001	93
86		Akron	MAC	-3.8859	0.0001	105
87		Old Dominion	CAA	-3.9376	0.0000	88
88	X	Pennsylvania	Ivy	-3.9445	0.0000	105
89		North Carolina St.	ACC	-4.1299	0.0000	75
90		George Mason	CAA	-4.3677	0.0000	102
91		Central Florida	CUSA	-4.3812	0.0000	110
92	X	Davidson	SC	-4.5182	0.0000	109
93		Fresno St.	WAC	-4.8000	0.0000	105
94		New Mexico	MWC	-4.8314	0.0000	95
95		Evansville	MVC	-4.8906	0.0000	88
96		Santa Clara	WCC	-5.0211	0.0000	99
97		Toledo	MAC	-5.2610	0.0000	112
98		Temple	A10	-5.3517	0.0000	106
99		Holy Cross	Pat	-5.3577	0.0000	108
100		Mississippi	SEC	-5.5643	0.0000	88
101		Boise St.	WAC	-5.6432	0.0000	116
102		Cincinnati	BE	-5.7319	0.0000	93
103	X	Navy	Pat	-5.8028	0.0000	117
104		Vermont	AE	-5.9123	0.0000	127
105		South Carolina	SEC	-5.9447	0.0000	91
106		Miami FL	ACC	-6.1310	0.0000	108
107		Northwestern	B10	-6.1318	0.0000	100
108	X	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-6.1827	0.0000	126
109		North Texas	SB	-6.2831	0.0000	129
110		Wyoming	MWC	-6.3151	0.0000	106
111		Fordham	A10	-6.3415	0.0000	121
112		New Mexico St.	WAC	-6.5533	0.0000	123
113		Furman	SC	-6.7784	0.0000	138
114		South Florida	BE	-6.7825	0.0000	105
115		Utah	MWC	-6.8144	0.0000	116
116		Army	Pat	-6.9174	0.0000	127
117		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-6.9608	0.0000	127
118		Indiana St.	MVC	-7.0089	0.0000	103
119		Middle Tennessee	SB	-7.0954	0.0000	131
120		Baylor	B12	-7.1250	0.0000	102
121		Iowa	B10	-7.3231	0.0000	113
122		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-7.5544	0.0000	123
123		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-7.5826	0.0000	133
124		Vanderbilt	SEC	-7.5842	0.0000	115
125		American	Pat	-7.6404	0.0000	140
126	X	Eastern Washington	BSky	-7.6528	0.0000	143
127		St. John's	BE	-7.6617	0.0000	105
128	X	Sacred Heart	NEC	-7.6988	0.0000	149
129		Towson	CAA	-7.7503	0.0000	125
130		Hawaii	WAC	-7.8495	0.0000	124
131		Saint Joseph's	A10	-7.9379	0.0000	127
132		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-7.9387	0.0000	152
133		Western Michigan	MAC	-8.0167	0.0000	142
134		Auburn	SEC	-8.0278	0.0000	105
135	X	Valparaiso	MCon	-8.0537	0.0000	145
136		Northern Iowa	MVC	-8.1058	0.0000	117
137		Miami OH	MAC	-8.1323	0.0000	130
138		North Dakota St.	ind	-8.3122	0.0000	164
139		Oakland	MCon	-8.3432	0.0000	146
140		Liberty	BSth	-8.3496	0.0000	147
141		Long Beach St.	BW	-8.4363	0.0000	147
142		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-8.4728	0.0000	153
143		Samford	OVC	-8.5388	0.0000	161
144		Albany	AE	-8.6702	0.0000	157
145		Oral Roberts	MCon	-8.6717	0.0000	149
146		Idaho St.	BSky	-8.7396	0.0000	147
147		Ohio	MAC	-8.7661	0.0000	147
148		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-8.8523	0.0000	138
149		Penn St.	B10	-8.8670	0.0000	117
150		Rider	MAAC	-8.9555	0.0000	164
151		Wake Forest	ACC	-9.0226	0.0000	121
152	X	Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-9.1912	0.0000	162
153		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-9.4069	0.0000	164
154		Buffalo	MAC	-9.4515	0.0000	154
155		Kansas St.	B12	-9.5087	0.0000	126
156		Rhode Island	A10	-9.6187	0.0000	141
157		Hartford	AE	-9.8316	0.0000	167
158		Robert Morris	NEC	-9.8865	0.0000	176
159		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-9.9087	0.0000	170
160		Northern Arizona	BSky	-9.9658	0.0000	171
161		Arizona St.	P10	-10.2408	0.0000	144
162		South Alabama	SB	-10.3182	0.0000	167
163		IUPUI	MCon	-10.4091	0.0000	167
164		St. Mary's	WCC	-10.6234	0.0000	159
165		Portland St.	BSky	-10.7184	0.0000	176
166		Charlotte	A10	-10.7218	0.0000	153
167		Bucknell	Pat	-10.7700	0.0000	175
168		Appalachian St.	SC	-10.8062	0.0000	180
169		Murray St.	OVC	-10.8452	0.0000	184
170		Utah Valley St.	ind	-10.9611	0.0000	187
171		Texas Christian	MWC	-10.9922	0.0000	142
172		Tulane	CUSA	-11.0185	0.0000	163
173		San Francisco	WCC	-11.0492	0.0000	170
174		Loyola MD	MAAC	-11.0654	0.0000	184
175		MD Baltimore County	AE	-11.1868	0.0000	181
176		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-11.3273	0.0000	186
177		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-11.3957	0.0000	180
178		Ball St.	MAC	-11.5524	0.0000	171
179		Siena	MAAC	-11.5789	0.0000	190
180		Richmond	A10	-11.6359	0.0000	166
181		Lipscomb	ASun	-11.7605	0.0000	193
182		Minnesota	B10	-11.7656	0.0000	146
183		Drake	MVC	-11.8922	0.0000	149
184		College of Charleston	SC	-11.8982	0.0000	186
185		Chattanooga	SC	-11.9110	0.0000	192
186		Colorado St.	MWC	-11.9350	0.0000	161
187		Southern Utah	MCon	-12.0537	0.0000	194
188		Montana	BSky	-12.1490	0.0000	191
189		Princeton	Ivy	-12.1939	0.0000	196
190		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-12.2769	0.0000	167
191		Lehigh	Pat	-12.2817	0.0000	193
192		Canisius	MAAC	-12.3007	0.0000	196
193		Georgia Southern	SC	-12.3144	0.0000	204
194		Columbia	Ivy	-12.3494	0.0000	200
195		Tennessee St.	OVC	-12.4882	0.0000	195
196		NC Wilmington	CAA	-12.5100	0.0000	183
197	X	Boston University	AE	-12.5886	0.0000	201
198		Cleveland St.	Horz	-12.9049	0.0000	201
199		Rice	CUSA	-13.0700	0.0000	175
200		Harvard	Ivy	-13.1300	0.0000	203
201		UC Irvine	BW	-13.3593	0.0000	201
202	X	Delaware St.	MEAC	-13.5831	0.0000	209
203		NC Greensboro	SC	-13.8028	0.0000	219
204		San Diego	WCC	-13.8975	0.0000	205
205		Brown	Ivy	-14.0546	0.0000	222
206		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-14.2812	0.0000	220
207		Troy	SB	-14.3053	0.0000	217
208		Hofstra	CAA	-14.3222	0.0000	210
209		Youngstown St.	Horz	-14.3561	0.0000	211
210		Maine	AE	-14.3778	0.0000	223
211		McNeese St.	Slnd	-14.4384	0.0000	217
212		East Carolina	CUSA	-14.4615	0.0000	205
213		Austin Peay	OVC	-14.4758	0.0000	226
214		Pepperdine	WCC	-14.5625	0.0000	213
215		Oregon St.	P10	-14.5851	0.0000	179
216		Cornell	Ivy	-14.6102	0.0000	232
217		Pacific	BW	-14.6378	0.0000	212
218		Monmouth	NEC	-14.6414	0.0000	221
219		Iowa St.	B12	-14.6884	0.0000	184
220		Northeastern	CAA	-14.7105	0.0000	204
221		Western Carolina	SC	-14.7109	0.0000	223
222		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-14.7668	0.0000	232
223		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-14.8098	0.0000	234
224		High Point	BSth	-14.8507	0.0000	225
225		Charleston Southern	BSth	-14.9558	0.0000	232
226		Jacksonville	ASun	-14.9981	0.0000	227
227		Weber St.	BSky	-15.0161	0.0000	226
228		Yale	Ivy	-15.0331	0.0000	227
229		Central Michigan	MAC	-15.3353	0.0000	227
230		Marshall	CUSA	-15.6003	0.0000	205
231		William & Mary	CAA	-15.6591	0.0000	214
232		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-15.6983	0.0000	233
233		Centenary	MCon	-15.7200	0.0000	230
234	X	Jackson St.	SWAC	-15.7954	0.0000	240
235		Stony Brook	AE	-15.9517	0.0000	241
236		Northern Illinois	MAC	-15.9806	0.0000	233
237		New Orleans	SB	-16.0069	0.0000	241
238		Fairfield	MAAC	-16.2261	0.0000	227
239		La Salle	A10	-16.2353	0.0000	223
240		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-16.2518	0.0000	252
241		Morehead St.	OVC	-16.3686	0.0000	254
242		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-16.4094	0.0000	243
243		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-16.4313	0.0000	215
244		IUPU Fort Wayne	ind	-16.5180	0.0000	249
245		Coppin St.	MEAC	-16.6104	0.0000	241
246		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-16.6796	0.0000	258
247		Mercer	ASun	-17.0668	0.0000	256
248		St. Peter's	MAAC	-17.1351	0.0000	253
249		Howard	MEAC	-17.3067	0.0000	268
250		Stetson	ASun	-17.3758	0.0000	251
251		Florida Atlantic	SB	-17.3889	0.0000	245
252		Texas Pan American	ind	-17.4597	0.0000	259
253		Campbell	ASun	-17.4861	0.0000	258
254		Detroit	Horz	-17.5086	0.0000	239
255		Rutgers	BE	-17.5720	0.0000	208
256		Arkansas St.	SB	-17.6695	0.0000	259
257		Bowling Green	MAC	-17.7348	0.0000	254
258		Radford	BSth	-17.8366	0.0000	256
259		NC Asheville	BSth	-17.9459	0.0000	259
260		San Jose St.	WAC	-17.9466	0.0000	238
261		Hampton	MEAC	-18.0724	0.0000	267
262		Longwood	ind	-18.1286	0.0000	258
263		Missouri Kansas City	MCon	-18.2240	0.0000	265
264		Chicago St.	MCon	-18.2510	0.0000	255
265		Iona	MAAC	-18.3627	0.0000	266
266		St. Francis PA	NEC	-18.3765	0.0000	275
267		Central Connecticut	NEC	-18.4689	0.0000	276
268		Lafayette	Pat	-18.4690	0.0000	255
269		Duquesne	A10	-18.5774	0.0000	251
270		Florida A&M	MEAC	-18.5872	0.0000	276
271		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-18.5940	0.0000	273
272		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-18.7097	0.0000	282
273		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-18.9553	0.0000	278
274		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-18.9797	0.0000	277
275		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-18.9997	0.0000	288
276		Gardner Webb	ASun	-19.0619	0.0000	266
277		Texas Southern	SWAC	-19.1590	0.0000	282
278		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-19.1987	0.0000	267
279		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-19.3162	0.0000	283
280		Quinnipiac	NEC	-19.4364	0.0000	288
281		UC Riverside	BW	-19.4511	0.0000	280
282		Florida International	SB	-19.5611	0.0000	268
283		Morgan St.	MEAC	-19.5679	0.0000	289
284		Southern	SWAC	-19.6698	0.0000	288
285		Wagner	NEC	-19.6871	0.0000	291
286		Wofford	SC	-19.7005	0.0000	281
287		Long Island	NEC	-19.7764	0.0000	295
288		Grambling	SWAC	-19.7838	0.0000	293
289		Lamar	Slnd	-19.9485	0.0000	279
290		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-20.0373	0.0000	266
291		Sacramento St.	BSky	-20.1181	0.0000	283
292		Colgate	Pat	-20.1377	0.0000	283
293		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-20.1680	0.0000	286
294		Wright St.	Horz	-20.2402	0.0000	278
295		Colorado	B12	-20.2523	0.0000	243
296		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-20.3555	0.0000	293
297		Georgia St.	CAA	-20.3568	0.0000	267
298		Cal Poly	BW	-20.5194	0.0000	295
299		Western Illinois	MCon	-20.6212	0.0000	294
300		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-20.7553	0.0000	299
301		Manhattan	MAAC	-20.8667	0.0000	294
302		Alabama St.	SWAC	-21.3105	0.0000	307
303		Niagara	MAAC	-21.3546	0.0000	301
304		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-21.4923	0.0000	294
305		Binghamton	AE	-21.6506	0.0000	307
306		The Citadel	SC	-21.6720	0.0000	294
307		UC Davis	ind	-21.7155	0.0000	316
308		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-21.8000	0.0000	301
309		New Hampshire	AE	-21.8500	0.0000	313
310		Savannah St.	ind	-21.9630	0.0000	305
311		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-22.0770	0.0000	314
312		Texas St.	Slnd	-22.1415	0.0000	311
313		Delaware	CAA	-22.1576	0.0000	297
314		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-22.3283	0.0000	317
315		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-22.5258	0.0000	325
316		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-22.5311	0.0000	321
317		Northern Colorado	BSky	-22.5846	0.0000	322
318		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-22.6411	0.0000	316
319		Idaho	WAC	-22.7105	0.0000	290
320		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-22.8088	0.0000	326
321		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-22.8475	0.0000	314
322		James Madison	CAA	-23.0251	0.0000	303
323		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-23.0423	0.0000	306
324		St. Francis NY	NEC	-23.2473	0.0000	321
325		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-23.3076	0.0000	319
326		Winston Salem St.	ind	-23.3098	0.0000	320
327		St. Bonaventure	A10	-23.4421	0.0000	309
328		North Florida	ASun	-23.5007	0.0000	325
329		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-23.5311	0.0000	324
330		Portland	WCC	-23.5989	0.0000	310
331		Montana St.	BSky	-23.7065	0.0000	325
332		Dartmouth	Ivy	-23.8114	0.0000	322
333		South Dakota St.	ind	-23.8496	0.0000	332
334		Elon	SC	-23.9914	0.0000	320
335		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-24.1141	0.0000	335
336		Denver	SB	-24.7949	0.0000	334

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, and to Jay Colemen for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com