Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Mar 11, 2008.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	10.5428	1.0000	2.0
2	X	Tennessee	SEC	9.3094	1.0000	1.0
3	X	Memphis	CUSA	9.2011	1.0000	3.0
4	X	UCLA	P10	8.5912	1.0000	5.0
5		Duke	ACC	8.0583	1.0000	4.0
6	X	Kansas	B12	7.9292	1.0000	7.0
7		Texas	B12	7.6494	1.0000	6.0
8	X	Xavier	A10	7.1215	1.0000	9.0
9		Georgetown	BE	6.4095	1.0000	8.0
10	X	Butler	Horz	6.1940	1.0000	16.0
11		Louisville	BE	6.1397	1.0000	10.0
12		Indiana	B10	6.1324	1.0000	15.0
13	X	Drake	MVC	6.0155	1.0000	13.0
14		Washington St.	P10	5.7599	1.0000	18.0
15		Notre Dame	BE	5.4528	1.0000	20.0
16		Stanford	P10	5.1800	1.0000	19.0
17		Connecticut	BE	5.1432	1.0000	14.0
18	X	Wisconsin	B10	4.7275	1.0000	11.0
19		Southern California	P10	4.3915	1.0000	27.0
20		Clemson	ACC	4.2577	1.0000	22.0
21		Vanderbilt	SEC	4.1428	1.0000	12.0
22		Michigan St.	B10	4.0947	1.0000	17.0
23		Kent St.	MAC	3.9391	1.0000	38.0
24		Marquette	BE	3.9352	1.0000	21.0
25		Oklahoma	B12	3.9297	1.0000	23.0
26		Gonzaga	WCC	3.2604	0.9994	32.0
27		Brigham Young	MWC	3.0611	0.9989	25.0
28	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	3.0551	0.9989	28.0
29		Pittsburgh	BE	2.8878	0.9981	26.0
30		Baylor	B12	2.6793	0.9963	30.0
31		Miami FL	ACC	2.5685	0.9949	29.0
32		Illinois St.	MVC	2.3916	0.9916	41.0
33		South Alabama	SB	2.3792	0.9913	45.0
34	X	Davidson	SC	2.3303	0.9901	44.0
35		Purdue	B10	2.1947	0.9859	43.0
36		Arizona	P10	1.9782	0.9760	24.0
37		Dayton	A10	1.9665	0.9754	31.0
38	X	West Virginia	BE	1.8837	0.9702	35.0
39		Mississippi St.	SEC	1.7587	0.9607	34.0
40		Texas A&M	B12	1.6245	0.9479	36.0
41		Arkansas	SEC	1.3548	0.9123	40.0
42		Massachusetts	A10	1.2123	0.8873	46.0
43		Kentucky	SEC	1.2052	0.8859	39.0
44		St. Mary's	WCC	0.9589	0.8312	48.0
45		Kansas St.	B12	0.9225	0.8219	37.0
46		UAB	CUSA	0.7052	0.7597	51.0
47		Syracuse	BE	0.7044	0.7594	33.0
48	X	Western Kentucky	SB	0.6160	0.7310	47.0
49		Mississippi	SEC	0.5986	0.7253	42.0
50		Ohio St.	B10	0.3936	0.6531	49.0
51		Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.2155	0.5853	59.0
52		Florida St.	ACC	-0.0627	0.4750	54.0
53		New Mexico	MWC	-0.1633	0.4351	57.0
54		Villanova	BE	-0.2609	0.3971	56.0
55		Southern Illinois	MVC	-0.3077	0.3792	60.0
56	X	Oral Roberts	Sum	-0.5652	0.2860	67.0
57		Virginia Tech	ACC	-0.5843	0.2795	63.0
58		Creighton	MVC	-0.6026	0.2734	55.0
59	X	George Mason	CAA	-0.6054	0.2725	70.0
60	X	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-0.7280	0.2333	68.0
61		Maryland	ACC	-0.7322	0.2320	52.0
62		Texas Tech	B12	-0.7393	0.2299	50.0
63		Oregon	P10	-0.7702	0.2206	53.0
64		Temple	A10	-0.9973	0.1593	61.0
65		Utah St.	WAC	-1.1182	0.1317	83.0
66		Arizona St.	P10	-1.1421	0.1267	65.0
67		Saint Joseph's	A10	-1.2634	0.1032	62.0
68	X	Cornell	Ivy	-1.2849	0.0994	76.0
69	X	Siena	MAAC	-1.3010	0.0966	71.0
70		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-1.7597	0.0392	79.0
71		IUPUI	Sum	-1.8215	0.0343	89.0
72		Houston	CUSA	-1.9024	0.0286	64.0
73	X	Belmont	ASun	-1.9334	0.0266	95.0
74		Charlotte	A10	-1.9688	0.0245	75.0
75	X	Akron	MAC	-2.1259	0.0168	77.0
76		Cleveland St.	Horz	-2.1559	0.0155	72.0
77		Wright St.	Horz	-2.2280	0.0129	82.0
78		Georgia Tech	ACC	-2.2325	0.0128	73.0
79		Florida	SEC	-2.4447	0.0072	58.0
80		Oklahoma St.	B12	-2.4463	0.0072	69.0
81		Rhode Island	A10	-2.7598	0.0029	66.0
82	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-2.8077	0.0025	103.0
83		North Carolina St.	ACC	-3.0993	0.0010	78.0
84		Boise St.	WAC	-3.1374	0.0009	99.0
85		Ohio	MAC	-3.1682	0.0008	80.0
86		Wake Forest	ACC	-3.1916	0.0007	81.0
87		California	P10	-3.2644	0.0005	74.0
88		Nebraska	B12	-3.3519	0.0004	85.0
89		Nevada	WAC	-3.9051	0.0000	90.0
90	X	San Diego	WCC	-3.9393	0.0000	84.0
91	X	American	Pat	-4.1019	0.0000	107.0
92		San Diego St.	MWC	-4.1629	0.0000	86.0
93		Valparaiso	Horz	-4.1935	0.0000	101.0
94		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-4.3766	0.0000	106.0
95		Richmond	A10	-4.5976	0.0000	109.0
96	X	Portland St.	BSky	-4.7232	0.0000	129.0
97		Robert Morris	NEC	-4.7449	0.0000	128.0
98	X	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-4.9745	0.0000	104.0
99	X	MD Baltimore County	AE	-5.0052	0.0000	116.0
100		Cincinnati	BE	-5.0793	0.0000	97.0
101		Middle Tennessee	SB	-5.1560	0.0000	105.0
102		Bradley	MVC	-5.1955	0.0000	100.0
103	X	Winthrop	BSth	-5.2305	0.0000	115.0
104		Providence	BE	-5.2520	0.0000	87.0
105		Miami OH	MAC	-5.3727	0.0000	93.0
106		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-5.5232	0.0000	122.0
107		Wagner	NEC	-5.6667	0.0000	131.0
108	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-5.6891	0.0000	121.0
109		Missouri	B12	-5.7667	0.0000	88.0
110		Virginia	ACC	-5.7880	0.0000	92.0
111		Seton Hall	BE	-5.8705	0.0000	96.0
112		Minnesota	B10	-5.9886	0.0000	102.0
113		Washington	P10	-6.1770	0.0000	91.0
114		Rider	MAAC	-6.1953	0.0000	126.0
115		Marshall	CUSA	-6.2353	0.0000	114.0
116		Old Dominion	CAA	-6.2459	0.0000	123.0
117		Utah	MWC	-6.3287	0.0000	108.0
118		Northern Iowa	MVC	-6.4397	0.0000	119.0
119		Pacific	BW	-6.5220	0.0000	137.0
120		Alabama	SEC	-6.7925	0.0000	94.0
121		Brown	Ivy	-6.8681	0.0000	125.0
122		Boston College	ACC	-6.8802	0.0000	98.0
123		St. Louis	A10	-6.8866	0.0000	110.0
124		Duquesne	A10	-6.9376	0.0000	111.0
125		Northern Arizona	BSky	-7.0146	0.0000	141.0
126		Penn St.	B10	-7.0297	0.0000	120.0
127		Niagara	MAAC	-7.1094	0.0000	136.0
128		NC Wilmington	CAA	-7.1978	0.0000	138.0
129		Western Michigan	MAC	-7.3835	0.0000	150.0
130		NC Asheville	BSth	-7.4000	0.0000	146.0
131	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-7.6308	0.0000	151.0
132		Tulsa	CUSA	-7.6946	0.0000	130.0
133		Marist	MAAC	-7.7066	0.0000	124.0
134		North Texas	SB	-7.7796	0.0000	145.0
135		Georgia Southern	SC	-7.8007	0.0000	143.0
136		Indiana St.	MVC	-7.9177	0.0000	133.0
137		South Carolina	SEC	-8.0367	0.0000	113.0
138		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-8.2297	0.0000	132.0
139		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-8.2533	0.0000	112.0
140		Illinois	B10	-8.2625	0.0000	117.0
141		Loyola MD	MAAC	-8.5614	0.0000	159.0
142		Hampton	MEAC	-8.5761	0.0000	154.0
143		Chattanooga	SC	-8.5858	0.0000	139.0
144		Missouri St.	MVC	-8.7301	0.0000	118.0
145		Lamar	Slnd	-8.7363	0.0000	156.0
146	X	Sacred Heart	NEC	-8.7632	0.0000	167.0
147		NC Greensboro	SC	-8.9827	0.0000	144.0
148		Georgia	SEC	-8.9846	0.0000	127.0
149		Central Florida	CUSA	-9.1280	0.0000	135.0
150		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-9.1712	0.0000	148.0
151		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-9.2992	0.0000	170.0
152		Air Force	MWC	-9.4042	0.0000	155.0
153		Appalachian St.	SC	-9.4429	0.0000	165.0
154		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-9.4473	0.0000	153.0
155		Holy Cross	Pat	-9.6014	0.0000	152.0
156		William & Mary	CAA	-9.6635	0.0000	162.0
157		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-10.0133	0.0000	168.0
158		Oakland	Sum	-10.0644	0.0000	173.0
159		Colgate	Pat	-10.2673	0.0000	178.0
160		DePaul	BE	-10.3579	0.0000	142.0
161		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-10.4128	0.0000	157.0
162		St. John's	BE	-10.4586	0.0000	134.0
163		Auburn	SEC	-10.4850	0.0000	140.0
164		UC Irvine	BW	-10.4893	0.0000	175.0
165		Fordham	A10	-10.5901	0.0000	158.0
166		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-10.7274	0.0000	174.0
167		Hartford	AE	-10.8073	0.0000	186.0
168		Fairfield	MAAC	-10.8727	0.0000	179.0
169		Iowa St.	B12	-11.1324	0.0000	149.0
170		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-11.1538	0.0000	176.0
171		Weber St.	BSky	-11.2132	0.0000	195.0
172		Iowa	B10	-11.2645	0.0000	161.0
173		La Salle	A10	-11.3231	0.0000	172.0
174		Jacksonville	ASun	-11.3622	0.0000	181.0
175		New Orleans	SB	-11.3762	0.0000	169.0
176		Quinnipiac	NEC	-11.6727	0.0000	196.0
177		Louisiana St.	SEC	-11.7791	0.0000	147.0
178		Lafayette	Pat	-11.8123	0.0000	180.0
179		Murray St.	OVC	-11.8333	0.0000	192.0
180		Delaware	CAA	-11.8827	0.0000	184.0
181		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-11.9027	0.0000	177.0
182		George Washington	A10	-11.9697	0.0000	171.0
183		Yale	Ivy	-11.9710	0.0000	185.0
184		Michigan	B10	-12.0408	0.0000	166.0
185		Bowling Green	MAC	-12.2213	0.0000	190.0
186		Tulane	CUSA	-12.2280	0.0000	163.0
187		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-12.2430	0.0000	193.0
188		Texas Christian	MWC	-12.4297	0.0000	182.0
189		South Florida	BE	-12.6641	0.0000	160.0
190		Long Island	NEC	-12.7858	0.0000	199.0
191		Central Connecticut	NEC	-12.8521	0.0000	206.0
192		Northeastern	CAA	-12.8557	0.0000	188.0
193	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-12.8583	0.0000	217.0
194		Bucknell	Pat	-12.8722	0.0000	200.0
195		Gardner Webb	ASun	-12.8944	0.0000	208.0
196		Toledo	MAC	-12.9417	0.0000	189.0
197		Central Michigan	MAC	-12.9853	0.0000	197.0
198		Vermont	AE	-12.9930	0.0000	204.0
199		Albany	AE	-13.0316	0.0000	210.0
200		Navy	Pat	-13.1959	0.0000	214.0
201		Colorado	B12	-13.5097	0.0000	164.0
202		East Carolina	CUSA	-13.5465	0.0000	211.0
203		College of Charleston	SC	-13.5905	0.0000	198.0
204		Army	Pat	-13.7269	0.0000	215.0
205		North Dakota St.	Sum	-13.7941	0.0000	212.0
206		Cal Poly	BW	-13.8022	0.0000	201.0
207		Rutgers	BE	-13.8846	0.0000	187.0
208		Wichita St.	MVC	-13.8877	0.0000	183.0
209		James Madison	CAA	-14.2187	0.0000	205.0
210		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-14.2928	0.0000	220.0
211		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-14.3847	0.0000	222.0
212		Wofford	SC	-14.3965	0.0000	203.0
213		Wyoming	MWC	-14.5296	0.0000	194.0
214		Towson	CAA	-14.5909	0.0000	209.0
215		Lehigh	Pat	-14.7434	0.0000	227.0
216		Santa Clara	WCC	-14.7649	0.0000	191.0
217		Tennessee St.	OVC	-15.0278	0.0000	229.0
218		Elon	SC	-15.0959	0.0000	213.0
219		Morehead St.	OVC	-15.1797	0.0000	242.0
220		Lipscomb	ASun	-15.2346	0.0000	230.0
221		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-15.3807	0.0000	226.0
222		Columbia	Ivy	-15.4457	0.0000	228.0
223		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-15.5445	0.0000	219.0
224		Binghamton	AE	-15.5595	0.0000	240.0
225		Iona	MAAC	-15.5789	0.0000	234.0
226		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-15.5894	0.0000	223.0
227		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-15.9287	0.0000	225.0
228		Florida Atlantic	SB	-15.9445	0.0000	216.0
229		Montana	BSky	-16.0016	0.0000	244.0
230		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-16.1212	0.0000	238.0
231		Fresno St.	WAC	-16.1277	0.0000	207.0
232		Hofstra	CAA	-16.1971	0.0000	236.0
233		San Jose St.	WAC	-16.2594	0.0000	232.0
234		Northwestern	B10	-16.2915	0.0000	202.0
235		Chicago St.	ind	-16.3074	0.0000	235.0
236		Delaware St.	MEAC	-16.3267	0.0000	243.0
237		High Point	BSth	-16.3349	0.0000	247.0
238		Boston University	AE	-16.3422	0.0000	245.0
239		Montana St.	BSky	-16.4468	0.0000	239.0
240		Drexel	CAA	-16.5141	0.0000	218.0
241		Youngstown St.	Horz	-16.8169	0.0000	224.0
242		Southern Utah	Sum	-16.8881	0.0000	237.0
243		McNeese St.	Slnd	-17.0002	0.0000	249.0
244		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-17.2683	0.0000	259.0
245		Utah Valley St.	ind	-17.3650	0.0000	264.0
246		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-17.3965	0.0000	253.0
247		Texas St.	Slnd	-17.4057	0.0000	254.0
248		Pepperdine	WCC	-17.4370	0.0000	221.0
249		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-17.4451	0.0000	248.0
250		Idaho St.	BSky	-17.5455	0.0000	265.0
251		Florida A&M	MEAC	-17.6839	0.0000	257.0
252		Liberty	BSth	-17.8588	0.0000	260.0
253		Troy	SB	-18.0977	0.0000	231.0
254		Samford	OVC	-18.1118	0.0000	270.0
255		Denver	SB	-18.1227	0.0000	261.0
256		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-18.1460	0.0000	255.0
257		Hawaii	WAC	-18.2813	0.0000	251.0
258		Stetson	ASun	-18.3252	0.0000	263.0
259		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-18.3421	0.0000	290.0
260		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-18.3916	0.0000	281.0
261		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-18.4470	0.0000	246.0
262		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-18.5091	0.0000	256.0
263		Savannah St.	ind	-18.5393	0.0000	272.0
264		Florida International	SB	-18.6328	0.0000	233.0
265		Texas Pan American	ind	-18.7397	0.0000	295.0
266		Evansville	MVC	-18.7706	0.0000	241.0
267		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-18.8527	0.0000	273.0
268		Manhattan	MAAC	-19.0210	0.0000	274.0
269		Northern Colorado	BSky	-19.0805	0.0000	283.0
270		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-19.3628	0.0000	285.0
271		Eastern Washington	BSky	-19.3990	0.0000	275.0
272		Western Illinois	Sum	-19.5838	0.0000	267.0
273		Jackson St.	SWAC	-19.6468	0.0000	287.0
274		Coppin St.	MEAC	-19.9542	0.0000	280.0
275		Arkansas St.	SB	-19.9687	0.0000	278.0
276		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-20.0641	0.0000	282.0
277		St. Bonaventure	A10	-20.0810	0.0000	250.0
278		Buffalo	MAC	-20.1471	0.0000	252.0
279		Northern Illinois	MAC	-20.2168	0.0000	271.0
280		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-20.2380	0.0000	293.0
281		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-20.2490	0.0000	297.0
282		Detroit	Horz	-20.3437	0.0000	269.0
283		San Francisco	WCC	-20.5075	0.0000	266.0
284		Georgia St.	CAA	-20.5325	0.0000	277.0
285		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-20.5559	0.0000	262.0
286		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-20.6238	0.0000	279.0
287		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-21.0152	0.0000	301.0
288		Ball St.	MAC	-21.0966	0.0000	276.0
289		Monmouth	NEC	-21.1160	0.0000	299.0
290		New Hampshire	AE	-21.1278	0.0000	303.0
291		Harvard	Ivy	-21.1582	0.0000	291.0
292		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-21.2106	0.0000	288.0
293		Southern	SWAC	-21.2789	0.0000	305.0
294		Centenary	Sum	-21.4173	0.0000	289.0
295		Western Carolina	SC	-21.4341	0.0000	286.0
296		Colorado St.	MWC	-21.4961	0.0000	268.0
297		UC Davis	BW	-21.5175	0.0000	296.0
298		UC Riverside	BW	-21.5377	0.0000	284.0
299		Radford	BSth	-21.5921	0.0000	311.0
300		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-21.6004	0.0000	304.0
301		Furman	SC	-21.6842	0.0000	300.0
302		Campbell	ASun	-21.6860	0.0000	310.0
303		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-21.7394	0.0000	307.0
304		Oregon St.	P10	-21.7599	0.0000	258.0
305		Dartmouth	Ivy	-22.0129	0.0000	306.0
306		Idaho	WAC	-22.2125	0.0000	294.0
307		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-22.2238	0.0000	323.0
308		Mercer	ASun	-22.2646	0.0000	320.0
309		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-22.3086	0.0000	318.0
310		St. Francis NY	NEC	-22.3564	0.0000	314.0
311		North Carolina Central	ind	-22.5600	0.0000	302.0
312		St. Francis PA	NEC	-22.5803	0.0000	317.0
313		Charleston Southern	BSth	-22.8224	0.0000	322.0
314		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-22.8289	0.0000	329.0
315		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-22.8998	0.0000	324.0
316		Longwood	ind	-22.9333	0.0000	327.0
317		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-23.0907	0.0000	313.0
318		Canisius	MAAC	-23.0989	0.0000	308.0
319		St. Peter's	MAAC	-23.1499	0.0000	309.0
320		Portland	WCC	-23.1696	0.0000	292.0
321		Long Beach St.	BW	-23.1772	0.0000	315.0
322		Rice	CUSA	-23.2177	0.0000	298.0
323		Princeton	Ivy	-23.2483	0.0000	319.0
324		Grambling	SWAC	-23.4161	0.0000	333.0
325		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-23.5183	0.0000	336.0
326		Texas Southern	SWAC	-23.5914	0.0000	326.0
327		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.6685	0.0000	338.0
328		Stony Brook	AE	-23.9006	0.0000	325.0
329		South Dakota St.	Sum	-23.9502	0.0000	321.0
330		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-24.0057	0.0000	328.0
331		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-24.0308	0.0000	339.0
332		Maine	AE	-24.0834	0.0000	331.0
333		Howard	MEAC	-24.4783	0.0000	330.0
334		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-24.6024	0.0000	341.0
335		Sacramento St.	BSky	-24.6462	0.0000	335.0
336		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-24.7204	0.0000	316.0
337		Presbyterian	ind	-24.9202	0.0000	332.0
338		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-25.0954	0.0000	312.0
339		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-25.5308	0.0000	337.0
340		North Florida	ASun	-25.8746	0.0000	340.0
341		The Citadel	SC	-26.0741	0.0000	334.0

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com