Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Dec 11, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	9.5207	1.0000	1.4
2		Duke	ACC	8.7854	1.0000	2.3
3	X	West Virginia	BE	7.9330	1.0000	6.9
4	X	Kansas	B12	7.4566	1.0000	6.6
5	X	UCLA	P10	6.5880	1.0000	9.8
6		Texas	B12	6.4931	1.0000	6.0
7	X	Memphis	CUSA	6.4870	1.0000	10.7
8	X	Xavier	A10	6.4590	1.0000	8.4
9		Tennessee	SEC	5.7082	1.0000	9.3
10		Pittsburgh	BE	5.2496	1.0000	14.6
11		Michigan St.	B10	5.1850	1.0000	15.0
12		Marquette	BE	5.0957	1.0000	16.6
13		Georgetown	BE	4.9108	1.0000	19.8
14		Indiana	B10	4.8700	1.0000	20.8
15		Arizona	P10	4.6738	1.0000	12.5
16		Texas A&M	B12	4.4063	1.0000	20.6
17	X	Gonzaga	WCC	4.1683	1.0000	24.4
18	X	Butler	Horz	3.8849	0.9999	31.5
19		Clemson	ACC	3.8201	0.9999	22.9
20		Vanderbilt	SEC	3.6596	0.9999	20.8
21	X	Wisconsin	B10	3.5156	0.9998	28.5
22		Mississippi	SEC	3.4969	0.9998	26.4
23		Washington St.	P10	3.3673	0.9996	26.1
24	X	Florida	SEC	3.3619	0.9996	30.9
25		Rhode Island	A10	3.2685	0.9995	27.1
26		Oregon	P10	3.2507	0.9994	23.8
27		Stanford	P10	2.7507	0.9970	29.4
28		Florida St.	ACC	2.5407	0.9945	29.9
29		Southern California	P10	2.5208	0.9941	36.6
30		Notre Dame	BE	2.4057	0.9919	35.6
31		Louisville	BE	2.3909	0.9916	31.0
32		Dayton	A10	2.2733	0.9885	30.4
33		Arkansas	SEC	1.9925	0.9768	30.4
34		Brigham Young	MWC	1.8515	0.9679	41.0
35		Miami FL	ACC	1.8418	0.9672	30.9
36	X	Creighton	MVC	1.6081	0.9461	42.8
37		Boston College	ACC	1.3972	0.9188	33.1
38		Villanova	BE	1.1431	0.8735	43.4
39		Providence	BE	1.1350	0.8718	39.2
40	X	Holy Cross	Pat	0.9547	0.8301	46.1
41		Baylor	B12	0.7967	0.7872	41.4
42		California	P10	0.7324	0.7680	42.5
43	X	Miami OH	MAC	0.4634	0.6784	51.4
44	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.4250	0.6646	40.8
45		St. Mary's	WCC	0.3158	0.6239	57.5
46		Illinois	B10	0.3010	0.6183	46.7
47		Oklahoma	B12	0.2045	0.5810	47.9
48		Kentucky	SEC	-0.0045	0.4982	50.1
49		Virginia	ACC	-0.0831	0.4669	47.0
50		Missouri	B12	-0.2402	0.4051	52.0
51		Massachusetts	A10	-0.2920	0.3851	55.2
52		Connecticut	BE	-0.3297	0.3708	47.9
53	X	George Mason	CAA	-0.6741	0.2501	65.8
54		Syracuse	BE	-0.6856	0.2465	46.7
55		Oklahoma St.	B12	-0.9047	0.1828	51.0
56		Western Kentucky	SB	-1.0414	0.1489	73.8
57		Southern Illinois	MVC	-1.0567	0.1453	60.7
58		Ohio St.	B10	-1.1991	0.1152	60.6
59		New Mexico	MWC	-1.2423	0.1071	64.1
60	X	Winthrop	BSth	-1.2486	0.1059	73.3
61		Drake	MVC	-1.2712	0.1018	68.4
62		Minnesota	B10	-1.4024	0.0804	61.8
63	X	South Alabama	SB	-1.4772	0.0698	72.3
64		Houston	CUSA	-1.5627	0.0591	67.1
65	X	Davidson	SC	-1.7325	0.0416	88.4
66		Duquesne	A10	-1.8209	0.0343	73.8
67		Valparaiso	Horz	-1.8645	0.0311	72.5
68		Kent St.	MAC	-1.8710	0.0307	76.5
69		San Diego St.	MWC	-1.8957	0.0290	61.8
70	X	UC Santa Barbara	BW	-1.9538	0.0254	80.7
71		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-1.9712	0.0244	69.6
72	X	Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-2.2097	0.0136	82.9
73		Mississippi St.	SEC	-2.2123	0.0135	62.1
74		Virginia Tech	ACC	-2.3609	0.0091	70.0
75		Texas Tech	B12	-2.4723	0.0067	64.9
76		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-2.6030	0.0046	85.7
77		Arizona St.	P10	-2.7039	0.0034	71.7
78		Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-2.9293	0.0017	89.6
79		Maryland	ACC	-2.9809	0.0014	63.1
80		Kansas St.	B12	-3.1074	0.0009	71.3
81		South Carolina	SEC	-3.2521	0.0006	73.9
82		UAB	CUSA	-3.2969	0.0005	83.3
83		North Texas	SB	-3.3267	0.0004	95.8
84		Alabama	SEC	-3.4671	0.0003	73.1
85		Bradley	MVC	-3.4962	0.0002	81.4
86		Georgia Tech	ACC	-3.5040	0.0002	80.0
87		Saint Joseph's	A10	-3.6047	0.0002	76.9
88	X	Siena	MAAC	-3.6741	0.0001	101.0
89		Louisiana St.	SEC	-3.6812	0.0001	77.9
90		North Carolina St.	ACC	-3.8959	0.0000	88.3
91		Missouri St.	MVC	-3.9649	0.0000	87.6
92		Ohio	MAC	-3.9672	0.0000	90.9
93		Old Dominion	CAA	-4.0353	0.0000	91.1
94		Temple	A10	-4.3665	0.0000	91.4
95		Nevada	WAC	-4.3844	0.0000	103.0
96		Charlotte	A10	-4.4503	0.0000	97.5
97		Santa Clara	WCC	-4.5540	0.0000	101.0
98		Utah	MWC	-4.5630	0.0000	89.3
99		Georgia Southern	SC	-4.8441	0.0000	109.9
100		James Madison	CAA	-5.1977	0.0000	111.8
101	X	Oral Roberts	Sum	-5.2449	0.0000	119.8
102		Illinois St.	MVC	-5.4367	0.0000	101.9
103		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-5.4703	0.0000	117.5
104		IUPUI	Sum	-5.4887	0.0000	128.9
105		Purdue	B10	-5.5008	0.0000	100.7
106	X	Hampton	MEAC	-5.5106	0.0000	118.2
107		Seton Hall	BE	-5.5904	0.0000	92.5
108		Nebraska	B12	-5.6030	0.0000	102.1
109		Pacific	BW	-5.6262	0.0000	121.0
110		South Florida	BE	-5.7327	0.0000	104.3
111		Akron	MAC	-5.9160	0.0000	116.6
112		Georgia	SEC	-5.9614	0.0000	94.3
113		St. John's	BE	-6.1327	0.0000	93.3
114		Northern Iowa	MVC	-6.1784	0.0000	116.4
115	X	Portland St.	BSky	-6.1969	0.0000	130.4
116		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-6.3335	0.0000	111.0
117		DePaul	BE	-6.4876	0.0000	101.6
118		Washington	P10	-6.5127	0.0000	101.3
119		Belmont	ASun	-6.5254	0.0000	142.3
120	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-6.7545	0.0000	124.8
121		Cleveland St.	Horz	-7.2244	0.0000	128.2
122		Auburn	SEC	-7.2282	0.0000	110.9
123		Central Florida	CUSA	-7.2423	0.0000	126.5
124		Wichita St.	MVC	-7.3207	0.0000	113.1
125		George Washington	A10	-7.4116	0.0000	126.1
126		Marist	MAAC	-7.4660	0.0000	132.7
127		NC Wilmington	CAA	-7.6120	0.0000	132.4
128		Northeastern	CAA	-7.7150	0.0000	126.9
129		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-7.7620	0.0000	146.2
130		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-7.9986	0.0000	137.8
131		St. Louis	A10	-8.0165	0.0000	117.4
132		Wright St.	Horz	-8.0842	0.0000	139.9
133	X	East Tennessee St.	ASun	-8.1451	0.0000	149.5
134		Northern Arizona	BSky	-8.1814	0.0000	154.1
135		Boise St.	WAC	-8.1936	0.0000	150.3
136	X	Brown	Ivy	-8.3998	0.0000	144.5
137		Morgan St.	MEAC	-8.4261	0.0000	155.4
138	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-8.5729	0.0000	162.6
139		MD Baltimore County	AE	-8.6134	0.0000	155.8
140		Michigan	B10	-8.6574	0.0000	122.7
141		Marshall	CUSA	-8.6888	0.0000	141.0
142	X	Albany	AE	-8.7177	0.0000	164.1
143		Wake Forest	ACC	-8.8170	0.0000	129.5
144		Montana	BSky	-8.8279	0.0000	157.9
145		San Diego	WCC	-8.9870	0.0000	130.0
146		College of Charleston	SC	-9.1591	0.0000	155.4
147		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-9.2367	0.0000	142.4
148		Drexel	CAA	-9.3092	0.0000	147.0
149		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-9.3310	0.0000	156.0
150		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-9.4219	0.0000	160.3
151		Western Michigan	MAC	-9.5204	0.0000	158.6
152		Toledo	MAC	-9.7749	0.0000	154.1
153		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-9.8789	0.0000	160.5
154		Chattanooga	SC	-10.0114	0.0000	162.1
155		Wagner	NEC	-10.0187	0.0000	175.9
156		North Dakota St.	Sum	-10.0694	0.0000	174.6
157		Yale	Ivy	-10.0783	0.0000	166.2
158		Penn St.	B10	-10.1968	0.0000	144.3
159		Bucknell	Pat	-10.2717	0.0000	168.0
160		NC Asheville	BSth	-10.2790	0.0000	170.3
161		Colorado	B12	-10.3136	0.0000	137.8
162		Niagara	MAAC	-10.3914	0.0000	177.6
163		Air Force	MWC	-10.4146	0.0000	155.4
164		Fresno St.	WAC	-10.4379	0.0000	164.8
165		Colorado St.	MWC	-10.4496	0.0000	142.3
166		New Orleans	SB	-10.4552	0.0000	173.9
167		Long Island	NEC	-10.5086	0.0000	175.2
168		Utah St.	WAC	-10.5446	0.0000	177.3
169		Tulane	CUSA	-10.7438	0.0000	165.3
170		Oakland	Sum	-10.8139	0.0000	179.8
171	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-11.2198	0.0000	187.8
172		Iowa St.	B12	-11.5166	0.0000	144.2
173		Cornell	Ivy	-11.6791	0.0000	191.3
174		Pepperdine	WCC	-11.7207	0.0000	170.1
175		Hofstra	CAA	-11.9400	0.0000	180.2
176		Hawaii	WAC	-12.0321	0.0000	189.6
177		American	Pat	-12.1154	0.0000	188.8
178		Troy	SB	-12.1265	0.0000	182.5
179		Rutgers	BE	-12.1741	0.0000	153.2
180		Texas Christian	MWC	-12.2576	0.0000	163.2
181		Fordham	A10	-12.2639	0.0000	167.5
182		UC Irvine	BW	-12.2640	0.0000	185.7
183		Appalachian St.	SC	-12.3102	0.0000	195.3
184		Colgate	Pat	-12.3640	0.0000	191.1
185		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-12.3684	0.0000	198.8
186		Lafayette	Pat	-12.4010	0.0000	194.5
187		Oregon St.	P10	-12.5606	0.0000	165.5
188		Murray St.	OVC	-12.5818	0.0000	206.2
189		Detroit	Horz	-12.5825	0.0000	189.0
190		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-12.5866	0.0000	194.9
191		Northwestern	B10	-12.8485	0.0000	166.9
192		Indiana St.	MVC	-12.8997	0.0000	166.6
193		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-13.0923	0.0000	204.0
194		Cal Poly	BW	-13.1238	0.0000	195.2
195		Tulsa	CUSA	-13.1345	0.0000	189.7
196		Montana St.	BSky	-13.1365	0.0000	203.8
197		Wyoming	MWC	-13.2098	0.0000	181.0
198		Harvard	Ivy	-13.2778	0.0000	200.2
199		Gardner Webb	ASun	-13.3027	0.0000	210.2
200		Evansville	MVC	-13.6219	0.0000	180.3
201		Rider	MAAC	-13.6503	0.0000	213.7
202		San Francisco	WCC	-13.6769	0.0000	188.3
203		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-13.6947	0.0000	201.0
204		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-13.7302	0.0000	219.4
205		Manhattan	MAAC	-13.7554	0.0000	220.9
206		Iowa	B10	-13.8536	0.0000	186.3
207		Boston University	AE	-14.1409	0.0000	217.3
208		East Carolina	CUSA	-14.2810	0.0000	210.9
209		Central Michigan	MAC	-14.3612	0.0000	211.8
210		Cincinnati	BE	-14.3673	0.0000	175.8
211	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-14.3868	0.0000	237.8
212		Vermont	AE	-14.3946	0.0000	224.1
213		McNeese St.	Slnd	-14.6645	0.0000	224.2
214		Utah Valley St.	ind	-14.7855	0.0000	242.6
215		Loyola MD	MAAC	-14.8069	0.0000	222.8
216		Jacksonville	ASun	-14.8082	0.0000	232.1
217		St. Peter's	MAAC	-14.8778	0.0000	225.9
218		High Point	BSth	-14.8905	0.0000	224.9
219		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-14.9214	0.0000	218.6
220		Lehigh	Pat	-14.9253	0.0000	225.7
221		Elon	SC	-15.0346	0.0000	222.7
222		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-15.0934	0.0000	225.7
223		Centenary	Sum	-15.1124	0.0000	230.5
224		William & Mary	CAA	-15.2112	0.0000	218.7
225		Hartford	AE	-15.2757	0.0000	222.6
226		Youngstown St.	Horz	-15.2796	0.0000	211.2
227		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-15.2911	0.0000	211.3
228		Bowling Green	MAC	-15.3011	0.0000	218.3
229		Richmond	A10	-15.5111	0.0000	211.9
230		New Hampshire	AE	-15.5211	0.0000	236.8
231		Lipscomb	ASun	-15.6665	0.0000	247.3
232		Portland	WCC	-15.6984	0.0000	217.9
233		Samford	OVC	-15.7293	0.0000	247.9
234		Columbia	Ivy	-15.7754	0.0000	238.6
235		Wofford	SC	-15.9512	0.0000	232.3
236		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-15.9620	0.0000	243.9
237		Southern Utah	Sum	-15.9831	0.0000	240.9
238		Middle Tennessee	SB	-16.0307	0.0000	227.1
239		San Jose St.	WAC	-16.0888	0.0000	241.4
240		Quinnipiac	NEC	-16.1306	0.0000	247.5
241		Princeton	Ivy	-16.1838	0.0000	245.9
242		Sacred Heart	NEC	-16.2974	0.0000	244.3
243		Mercer	ASun	-16.3930	0.0000	257.7
244		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-16.4136	0.0000	255.1
245		Delaware	CAA	-16.4589	0.0000	233.8
246		Liberty	BSth	-16.5973	0.0000	239.7
247		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-16.6144	0.0000	244.2
248		Weber St.	BSky	-16.7365	0.0000	247.1
249		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-16.8032	0.0000	251.3
250		Iona	MAAC	-16.8950	0.0000	251.8
251		Monmouth	NEC	-16.9160	0.0000	254.4
252		St. Francis NY	NEC	-17.0168	0.0000	255.8
253		NC Greensboro	SC	-17.0457	0.0000	246.3
254		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-17.1736	0.0000	250.5
255		Long Beach St.	BW	-17.1967	0.0000	250.4
256		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-17.2211	0.0000	233.3
257		Delaware St.	MEAC	-17.2536	0.0000	255.4
258		Buffalo	MAC	-17.3558	0.0000	236.0
259		St. Bonaventure	A10	-17.4016	0.0000	234.2
260		La Salle	A10	-17.4699	0.0000	232.9
261		Central Connecticut	NEC	-17.4929	0.0000	263.0
262		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-17.5527	0.0000	260.6
263		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-17.5574	0.0000	247.2
264		Fairfield	MAAC	-17.7198	0.0000	257.8
265		Arkansas St.	SB	-17.8265	0.0000	259.2
266		Northern Colorado	BSky	-17.9286	0.0000	266.4
267		Tennessee St.	OVC	-18.0365	0.0000	266.8
268		Ball St.	MAC	-18.0397	0.0000	252.6
269		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-18.0744	0.0000	246.0
270		Denver	SB	-18.0861	0.0000	257.4
271		Towson	CAA	-18.0918	0.0000	254.2
272		Lamar	Slnd	-18.1637	0.0000	264.4
273		Texas St.	Slnd	-18.3853	0.0000	263.0
274		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-18.6054	0.0000	266.5
275		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-18.6080	0.0000	277.7
276		Chicago St.	ind	-18.7197	0.0000	270.6
277		Dartmouth	Ivy	-18.8321	0.0000	278.1
278		St. Francis PA	NEC	-18.8657	0.0000	279.7
279		Southern	SWAC	-18.8881	0.0000	276.4
280		UC Davis	BW	-18.9118	0.0000	273.2
281		Coppin St.	MEAC	-18.9605	0.0000	266.1
282		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-18.9673	0.0000	287.3
283		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-19.0373	0.0000	276.5
284		Eastern Washington	BSky	-19.1385	0.0000	271.5
285		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-19.7393	0.0000	287.3
286		Maine	AE	-19.8261	0.0000	284.1
287		Georgia St.	CAA	-19.9074	0.0000	266.1
288		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-19.9834	0.0000	290.9
289		Rice	CUSA	-20.0136	0.0000	268.1
290		Navy	Pat	-20.1608	0.0000	288.3
291		Army	Pat	-20.1810	0.0000	285.7
292		Texas Southern	SWAC	-20.2848	0.0000	289.8
293		Western Carolina	SC	-20.4016	0.0000	285.4
294		Florida International	SB	-20.4519	0.0000	270.5
295		South Dakota St.	Sum	-20.4795	0.0000	295.5
296		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-20.5039	0.0000	263.6
297		Stetson	ASun	-20.5385	0.0000	294.4
298		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-20.5420	0.0000	302.0
299		Furman	SC	-20.5489	0.0000	291.4
300		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-20.6230	0.0000	280.4
301		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-20.7394	0.0000	299.8
302		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-20.8007	0.0000	298.3
303		Florida Atlantic	SB	-20.9260	0.0000	282.3
304		Northern Illinois	MAC	-21.1234	0.0000	284.6
305		Idaho St.	BSky	-21.4727	0.0000	303.7
306		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-21.5312	0.0000	315.4
307		UC Riverside	BW	-21.5438	0.0000	284.2
308		Binghamton	AE	-21.5447	0.0000	314.7
309		Radford	BSth	-21.5579	0.0000	303.7
310		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-21.6348	0.0000	308.7
311		Savannah St.	ind	-21.6659	0.0000	308.1
312		Campbell	ASun	-21.6702	0.0000	315.3
313		Grambling	SWAC	-21.6895	0.0000	315.2
314		Sacramento St.	BSky	-21.8474	0.0000	305.3
315		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-21.9965	0.0000	319.1
316		Stony Brook	AE	-22.0565	0.0000	313.3
317		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-22.2676	0.0000	326.3
318		Morehead St.	OVC	-22.2820	0.0000	311.6
319		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-22.3804	0.0000	314.1
320		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-22.4135	0.0000	309.7
321		Charleston Southern	BSth	-22.4907	0.0000	313.5
322		Texas Pan American	ind	-22.5524	0.0000	328.6
323		Jackson St.	SWAC	-22.6522	0.0000	317.8
324		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-22.8675	0.0000	324.5
325		Longwood	ind	-22.8978	0.0000	326.8
326		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-22.9843	0.0000	334.3
327		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-23.0441	0.0000	329.4
328		Howard	MEAC	-23.0723	0.0000	316.8
329		North Carolina Central	ind	-23.2066	0.0000	320.1
330		Western Illinois	Sum	-23.2568	0.0000	316.0
331		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-23.4132	0.0000	328.6
332		Canisius	MAAC	-23.4188	0.0000	325.4
333		Idaho	WAC	-23.4333	0.0000	321.2
334		Florida A&M	MEAC	-23.4834	0.0000	317.4
335		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-23.7456	0.0000	340.8
336		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-23.8573	0.0000	337.4
337		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.9579	0.0000	336.1
338		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-24.0786	0.0000	330.1
339		Presbyterian	ind	-24.2881	0.0000	330.6
340		The Citadel	SC	-24.4308	0.0000	322.0
341		North Florida	ASun	-25.2911	0.0000	339.2

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com
A reader pointed out that I hadn't included an automatic bid for a CAA team, so I went back and gave it to George Mason based on their rating based on the date of these projections. That bumped Virginia out of the tourney.