Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Nov 10, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	7.6848	1.0000	2.5
2	X	Florida	SEC	7.5502	1.0000	5.4
3	X	Kansas	B12	6.5367	1.0000	7.2
4		Duke	ACC	6.2652	1.0000	7.2
5	X	Memphis	CUSA	6.0270	1.0000	6.4
6	X	UCLA	P10	5.2585	1.0000	13.9
7		Arizona	P10	5.2330	1.0000	10.7
8	X	Georgetown	BE	5.0928	1.0000	13.5
9		Villanova	BE	4.8128	1.0000	14.6
10		Pittsburgh	BE	4.6559	1.0000	17.3
11		Texas	B12	4.5848	1.0000	15.0
12		Kentucky	SEC	4.5378	1.0000	18.9
13	X	Ohio St.	B10	4.1607	1.0000	22.1
14		Texas A&M	B12	4.1230	1.0000	17.2
15		Tennessee	SEC	3.9955	1.0000	16.2
16		Louisville	BE	3.7688	0.9999	22.8
17		Maryland	ACC	3.6158	0.9999	22.3
18		Wisconsin	B10	3.3913	0.9997	28.5
19		Boston College	ACC	3.3451	0.9996	23.1
20		Connecticut	BE	3.2452	0.9994	25.9
21		Illinois	B10	2.9606	0.9985	25.4
22		Michigan St.	B10	2.9118	0.9982	27.3
23		West Virginia	BE	2.5830	0.9951	34.4
24	X	Xavier	A10	2.5444	0.9945	33.5
25		Louisiana St.	SEC	2.5370	0.9944	29.3
26	X	Southern Illinois	MVC	2.5034	0.9939	30.6
27		Mississippi St.	SEC	2.4111	0.9920	28.9
28		Vanderbilt	SEC	2.3226	0.9899	28.6
29	X	Gonzaga	WCC	2.0820	0.9813	38.7
30		Arkansas	SEC	2.0515	0.9799	29.9
31		Syracuse	BE	2.0308	0.9789	29.2
32		Alabama	SEC	2.0063	0.9776	31.0
33		Notre Dame	BE	1.8742	0.9695	38.5
34		Indiana	B10	1.6461	0.9501	36.5
35	X	Nevada	WAC	1.6414	0.9496	39.1
36		Oregon	P10	1.6292	0.9484	37.0
37		Oklahoma	B12	1.4312	0.9238	37.4
38	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	1.3124	0.9053	40.3
39		Oklahoma St.	B12	1.0502	0.8532	36.8
40		Washington	P10	0.9013	0.8163	42.9
41	X	Butler	Horz	0.6028	0.7267	55.0
42		Creighton	MVC	0.4873	0.6870	52.1
43		Clemson	ACC	0.4464	0.6724	45.5
44		Missouri St.	MVC	0.3640	0.6421	50.8
45		Stanford	P10	0.1199	0.5477	48.2
46		Florida St.	ACC	0.0700	0.5279	44.8
47		Air Force	MWC	0.0315	0.5126	56.1
48		Georgia Tech	ACC	-0.1910	0.4243	59.4
49		Brigham Young	MWC	-0.2673	0.3946	50.3
50		Virginia	ACC	-0.6033	0.2732	49.1
51	X	Old Dominion	CAA	-0.6310	0.2640	62.6
52		Saint Joseph's	A10	-0.6460	0.2592	57.0
53		Texas Tech	B12	-0.9761	0.1645	55.5
54	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-0.9933	0.1603	66.5
55		Marquette	BE	-1.0111	0.1560	57.6
56		Kansas St.	B12	-1.0659	0.1432	58.9
57		Wichita St.	MVC	-1.0794	0.1402	62.3
58		Southern California	P10	-1.2059	0.1139	64.1
59		North Carolina St.	ACC	-1.2917	0.0982	61.5
60		George Washington	A10	-1.3042	0.0961	69.3
61		George Mason	CAA	-1.3297	0.0918	70.7
62		UAB	CUSA	-1.3995	0.0808	67.1
63		Michigan	B10	-1.5200	0.0642	61.5
64	X	Winthrop	BSth	-1.6890	0.0456	79.8
65		Houston	CUSA	-1.7568	0.0395	67.9
66		Virginia Tech	ACC	-1.8187	0.0345	61.9
67		Bucknell	Pat	-1.8727	0.0306	75.6
68		South Carolina	SEC	-1.9366	0.0264	62.4
69		DePaul	BE	-1.9389	0.0263	64.8
70		Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-2.0877	0.0184	81.0
71		Massachusetts	A10	-2.1307	0.0166	68.2
72		Washington St.	P10	-2.2180	0.0133	67.9
73		Northern Iowa	MVC	-2.5768	0.0050	74.8
74		California	P10	-2.6471	0.0041	67.0
75		Western Kentucky	SB	-2.6647	0.0039	88.3
76		Kent St.	MAC	-2.7423	0.0031	87.6
77		Georgia	SEC	-2.7897	0.0026	69.1
78		Drexel	CAA	-2.8520	0.0022	82.6
79		Bradley	MVC	-2.8639	0.0021	81.0
80	X	Davidson	SC	-2.9686	0.0015	98.2
81		Purdue	B10	-2.9717	0.0015	73.3
82		San Diego St.	MWC	-3.0417	0.0012	77.8
83	X	Akron	MAC	-3.0599	0.0011	92.1
84		Providence	BE	-3.1959	0.0007	73.1
85		Iowa	B10	-3.2032	0.0007	80.4
86		Utah St.	WAC	-3.5548	0.0002	93.5
87		Mississippi	SEC	-3.6204	0.0001	77.1
88		Temple	A10	-3.6582	0.0001	88.2
89		St. Louis	A10	-3.6691	0.0001	81.0
90		Cincinnati	BE	-3.8839	0.0001	82.8
91		Charlotte	A10	-3.8867	0.0001	87.7
92		Dayton	A10	-4.0739	0.0000	84.7
93		Missouri	B12	-4.1500	0.0000	86.0
94		Hofstra	CAA	-4.2259	0.0000	99.1
95		Miami OH	MAC	-4.2263	0.0000	99.1
96		Hawaii	WAC	-4.2269	0.0000	99.2
97		Wake Forest	ACC	-4.3160	0.0000	87.7
98		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-4.4474	0.0000	97.9
99	X	Oral Roberts	Sum	-4.5345	0.0000	111.9
100		Auburn	SEC	-4.7589	0.0000	90.2
101	X	Pennsylvania	Ivy	-4.9679	0.0000	117.0
102		Miami FL	ACC	-5.3472	0.0000	87.5
103		Seton Hall	BE	-5.6686	0.0000	101.2
104		Nebraska	B12	-5.7236	0.0000	107.8
105		Toledo	MAC	-5.7240	0.0000	119.1
106		St. Mary's	WCC	-5.7785	0.0000	115.4
107		New Mexico	MWC	-5.9386	0.0000	103.3
108		Ohio	MAC	-6.0223	0.0000	114.9
109		Utah	MWC	-6.1389	0.0000	101.8
110		Fresno St.	WAC	-6.2116	0.0000	117.4
111		Marist	MAAC	-6.2746	0.0000	129.9
112	X	Belmont	ASun	-6.3591	0.0000	137.2
113	X	Vermont	AE	-6.5231	0.0000	133.0
114		Boise St.	WAC	-6.5315	0.0000	121.6
115		Santa Clara	WCC	-6.5382	0.0000	121.6
116		Appalachian St.	SC	-6.8625	0.0000	137.4
117	X	Murray St.	OVC	-6.9324	0.0000	140.7
118		Baylor	B12	-6.9814	0.0000	106.5
119		Central Florida	CUSA	-7.0338	0.0000	128.9
120		Tulsa	CUSA	-7.0604	0.0000	125.0
121		Iowa St.	B12	-7.1228	0.0000	118.0
122	X	South Alabama	SB	-7.2186	0.0000	136.8
123		Middle Tennessee	SB	-7.2379	0.0000	134.8
124	X	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-7.2689	0.0000	141.6
125		Wright St.	Horz	-7.2902	0.0000	134.1
126		St. John's	BE	-7.3613	0.0000	109.0
127		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-7.4377	0.0000	140.0
128		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-7.5803	0.0000	135.6
129		New Mexico St.	WAC	-7.6172	0.0000	131.7
130		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-7.7500	0.0000	137.1
131		Albany	AE	-7.9921	0.0000	150.8
132		NC Wilmington	CAA	-8.0172	0.0000	133.0
133		College of Charleston	SC	-8.0338	0.0000	149.5
134	X	Siena	MAAC	-8.0605	0.0000	147.9
135	X	Pacific	BW	-8.2350	0.0000	151.3
136		San Diego	WCC	-8.2538	0.0000	137.5
137		Rhode Island	A10	-8.2837	0.0000	129.2
138		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-8.3716	0.0000	154.6
139		Fordham	A10	-8.3994	0.0000	134.0
140		Colorado St.	MWC	-8.5247	0.0000	134.0
141		Wyoming	MWC	-8.5302	0.0000	133.7
142		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-8.9473	0.0000	150.0
143		North Texas	SB	-8.9894	0.0000	162.1
144		Tulane	CUSA	-9.0801	0.0000	149.4
145	X	Montana	BSky	-9.0885	0.0000	159.0
146		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-9.1261	0.0000	144.2
147		Minnesota	B10	-9.2797	0.0000	130.1
148		Detroit	Horz	-9.3947	0.0000	156.3
149		Austin Peay	OVC	-9.4564	0.0000	167.2
150		UC Irvine	BW	-9.5592	0.0000	161.2
151		Rice	CUSA	-9.5978	0.0000	154.8
152		Illinois St.	MVC	-9.6709	0.0000	142.5
153		Rutgers	BE	-9.6863	0.0000	136.2
154		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-9.6886	0.0000	153.3
155		Valparaiso	Horz	-9.6934	0.0000	158.0
156	X	Central Connecticut	NEC	-9.9267	0.0000	176.9
157		Northern Arizona	BSky	-9.9321	0.0000	173.7
158		Arizona St.	P10	-9.9476	0.0000	135.4
159		San Francisco	WCC	-10.0159	0.0000	154.7
160		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-10.0926	0.0000	177.2
161		Yale	Ivy	-10.1244	0.0000	166.4
162		Evansville	MVC	-10.3318	0.0000	146.7
163		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-10.3512	0.0000	166.6
164		Colorado	B12	-10.3712	0.0000	144.4
165		Boston University	AE	-10.3804	0.0000	172.6
166		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-10.3860	0.0000	181.8
167		Northeastern	CAA	-10.3898	0.0000	156.5
168		American	Pat	-10.4431	0.0000	171.9
169		Marshall	CUSA	-10.4492	0.0000	157.6
170		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-10.5741	0.0000	182.1
171		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-10.5990	0.0000	185.4
172		Western Michigan	MAC	-10.7140	0.0000	179.6
173		Niagara	MAAC	-10.7349	0.0000	186.5
174		Long Beach St.	BW	-10.8250	0.0000	178.4
175		North Dakota St.	Sum	-10.9313	0.0000	189.1
176		NC Asheville	BSth	-11.0066	0.0000	176.5
177		Northwestern	B10	-11.0127	0.0000	145.2
178		Arkansas St.	SB	-11.0522	0.0000	185.6
179		Samford	OVC	-11.1748	0.0000	187.3
180		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-11.1825	0.0000	182.5
181		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-11.2128	0.0000	185.0
182		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-11.2923	0.0000	171.1
183		Drake	MVC	-11.4049	0.0000	161.5
184		Manhattan	MAAC	-11.6378	0.0000	194.4
185		Penn St.	B10	-11.7450	0.0000	148.0
186		Chattanooga	SC	-11.7855	0.0000	188.6
187		Oakland	Sum	-11.8166	0.0000	191.2
188		Georgia Southern	SC	-11.8312	0.0000	190.3
189		Texas Christian	MWC	-12.0747	0.0000	162.4
190		Cornell	Ivy	-12.2986	0.0000	195.6
191		IUPUI	Sum	-12.3089	0.0000	200.8
192		Troy	SB	-12.3322	0.0000	191.3
193		Buffalo	MAC	-12.4497	0.0000	188.0
194		High Point	BSth	-12.5329	0.0000	201.2
195		Fairfield	MAAC	-12.6635	0.0000	198.3
196		Oregon St.	P10	-12.7121	0.0000	166.7
197		Eastern Washington	BSky	-12.7470	0.0000	201.5
198		Portland St.	BSky	-12.8232	0.0000	206.5
199		Weber St.	BSky	-12.8536	0.0000	208.1
200		Indiana St.	MVC	-12.8912	0.0000	169.9
201		Monmouth	NEC	-13.0537	0.0000	212.5
202		Lehigh	Pat	-13.2211	0.0000	205.0
203		South Florida	BE	-13.4240	0.0000	177.7
204		Princeton	Ivy	-13.4425	0.0000	215.9
205		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-13.4803	0.0000	209.1
206		Pepperdine	WCC	-13.5715	0.0000	198.0
207	X	Delaware St.	MEAC	-13.5914	0.0000	216.6
208		Furman	SC	-13.9831	0.0000	217.6
209		La Salle	A10	-13.9894	0.0000	196.9
210		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-14.0277	0.0000	207.3
211		Binghamton	AE	-14.1064	0.0000	222.4
212		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-14.1125	0.0000	220.3
213		Loyola MD	MAAC	-14.1966	0.0000	218.3
214		New Orleans	SB	-14.3428	0.0000	223.3
215		Rider	MAAC	-14.4130	0.0000	222.1
216		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-14.4276	0.0000	224.6
217		Sacred Heart	NEC	-14.4728	0.0000	224.8
218		Southern Utah	Sum	-14.5385	0.0000	224.3
219		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-14.5702	0.0000	228.3
220		Utah Valley St.	ind	-14.6586	0.0000	238.8
221		Robert Morris	NEC	-14.7070	0.0000	231.0
222		Ball St.	MAC	-14.8141	0.0000	217.8
223		Lamar	Slnd	-14.9634	0.0000	229.1
224		Lipscomb	ASun	-14.9647	0.0000	240.7
225		Towson	CAA	-15.0067	0.0000	211.4
226		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-15.0127	0.0000	230.0
227		Idaho St.	BSky	-15.0519	0.0000	226.0
228		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-15.3224	0.0000	232.6
229		William & Mary	CAA	-15.4903	0.0000	216.0
230		Richmond	A10	-15.5210	0.0000	215.4
231		Cal Poly	BW	-15.5546	0.0000	233.3
232		Hampton	MEAC	-15.6109	0.0000	240.7
233		Gardner Webb	ASun	-15.6117	0.0000	241.1
234		Youngstown St.	Horz	-15.7230	0.0000	220.8
235		Wagner	NEC	-15.7238	0.0000	240.9
236		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-15.7468	0.0000	239.2
237		Harvard	Ivy	-15.8408	0.0000	232.9
238		Quinnipiac	NEC	-15.9304	0.0000	246.3
239		Columbia	Ivy	-16.0422	0.0000	246.7
240		Florida A&M	MEAC	-16.1396	0.0000	248.2
241		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-16.1542	0.0000	243.3
242		Northern Illinois	MAC	-16.1780	0.0000	228.7
243		Brown	Ivy	-16.4395	0.0000	242.0
244		Iona	MAAC	-16.5428	0.0000	244.5
245		Florida Atlantic	SB	-16.6319	0.0000	246.5
246		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-16.6465	0.0000	245.7
247		Colgate	Pat	-16.6805	0.0000	240.2
248		Hartford	AE	-16.6905	0.0000	245.8
249		Canisius	MAAC	-16.7176	0.0000	252.5
250		McNeese St.	Slnd	-16.8107	0.0000	254.6
251		Tennessee St.	OVC	-16.8467	0.0000	246.8
252		Bowling Green	MAC	-17.0039	0.0000	241.8
253		St. Francis NY	NEC	-17.1328	0.0000	260.3
254		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-17.1966	0.0000	261.8
255		Wofford	SC	-17.1983	0.0000	247.1
256		Cleveland St.	Horz	-17.2278	0.0000	236.6
257		Chicago St.	ind	-17.3384	0.0000	260.4
258		Duquesne	A10	-17.3853	0.0000	238.5
259		Georgia St.	CAA	-17.4531	0.0000	233.1
260		Delaware	CAA	-17.4800	0.0000	234.6
261		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-17.4943	0.0000	251.3
262		Florida International	SB	-17.5285	0.0000	249.3
263		Navy	Pat	-17.5899	0.0000	251.0
264		Jacksonville	ASun	-17.6273	0.0000	268.6
265		Montana St.	BSky	-17.8031	0.0000	261.8
266	X	Jackson St.	SWAC	-17.9548	0.0000	275.1
267		Mercer	ASun	-17.9879	0.0000	275.8
268		Southern	SWAC	-18.0710	0.0000	273.8
269		East Carolina	CUSA	-18.0993	0.0000	246.6
270		San Jose St.	WAC	-18.1142	0.0000	249.1
271		New Hampshire	AE	-18.1156	0.0000	270.0
272		Western Carolina	SC	-18.1453	0.0000	257.4
273		Portland	WCC	-18.1648	0.0000	252.8
274		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-18.1682	0.0000	271.0
275		NC Greensboro	SC	-18.3089	0.0000	263.0
276		Maine	AE	-18.4310	0.0000	271.3
277		St. Peter's	MAAC	-18.4314	0.0000	270.5
278		Lafayette	Pat	-18.6377	0.0000	265.1
279		Stony Brook	AE	-18.7259	0.0000	275.4
280		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-18.9181	0.0000	278.4
281		Stetson	ASun	-18.9741	0.0000	283.3
282		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-19.0023	0.0000	272.1
283		Radford	BSth	-19.2058	0.0000	270.1
284		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-19.2287	0.0000	278.7
285		Coppin St.	MEAC	-19.2969	0.0000	277.4
286		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-19.3138	0.0000	274.9
287		Sacramento St.	BSky	-19.3441	0.0000	274.8
288		Campbell	ASun	-19.4165	0.0000	290.1
289		MD Baltimore County	AE	-19.4201	0.0000	275.3
290		Liberty	BSth	-19.7607	0.0000	279.0
291		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-19.7849	0.0000	285.7
292		Long Island	NEC	-19.8121	0.0000	288.2
293		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-19.9122	0.0000	296.5
294		Central Michigan	MAC	-19.9145	0.0000	280.8
295		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-19.9474	0.0000	281.7
296		Denver	SB	-20.0388	0.0000	288.6
297		Charleston Southern	BSth	-20.0904	0.0000	285.5
298		Elon	SC	-20.2247	0.0000	279.0
299		James Madison	CAA	-20.2403	0.0000	264.7
300		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-20.5509	0.0000	301.4
301		Dartmouth	Ivy	-20.5603	0.0000	296.2
302		Texas St.	Slnd	-20.6387	0.0000	301.6
303		St. Bonaventure	A10	-20.6898	0.0000	275.8
304		Texas Southern	SWAC	-20.6991	0.0000	300.4
305		Centenary	Sum	-20.8509	0.0000	292.2
306		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-20.8541	0.0000	304.1
307		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-20.9392	0.0000	308.7
308		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-20.9888	0.0000	295.1
309		St. Francis PA	NEC	-21.0221	0.0000	303.9
310		Texas Pan American	ind	-21.1126	0.0000	315.4
311		Alabama St.	SWAC	-21.1532	0.0000	312.0
312		Morehead St.	OVC	-21.2129	0.0000	299.0
313		Idaho	WAC	-21.3640	0.0000	282.5
314		Morgan St.	MEAC	-21.3834	0.0000	309.0
315		Western Illinois	Sum	-21.4229	0.0000	302.1
316		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-21.4447	0.0000	298.3
317		Grambling	SWAC	-21.5626	0.0000	317.0
318		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-21.6089	0.0000	310.6
319		UC Davis	BW	-21.6870	0.0000	310.3
320		Army	Pat	-21.7508	0.0000	306.7
321		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-21.8501	0.0000	299.4
322		UC Riverside	BW	-21.9070	0.0000	304.5
323		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-21.9070	0.0000	315.9
324		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-22.1531	0.0000	321.5
325		Howard	MEAC	-22.3739	0.0000	323.9
326		South Dakota St.	Sum	-22.4509	0.0000	318.6
327		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-22.6273	0.0000	322.6
328		Longwood	ind	-22.6343	0.0000	320.3
329		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-22.7649	0.0000	328.2
330		Northern Colorado	BSky	-22.8223	0.0000	316.5
331		North Florida	ASun	-23.1523	0.0000	327.9
332		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-23.3490	0.0000	328.0
333		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-23.4520	0.0000	335.1
334		North Carolina Central	ind	-23.5120	0.0000	327.5
335		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-23.5888	0.0000	339.5
336		Savannah St.	ind	-23.6437	0.0000	330.7
337		The Citadel	SC	-23.6527	0.0000	316.7
338		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-24.2330	0.0000	331.8
339		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-24.9905	0.0000	336.1
340		Presbyterian	ind	-25.0196	0.0000	336.0
341		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-25.4858	0.0000	336.2

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com