Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive

Through games of Feb 10, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	Florida	SEC	9.6280	1.0000	5.4
2	X	North Carolina	ACC	8.5279	1.0000	1.8
3		Pittsburgh	BE	8.2705	1.0000	2.8
4	X	UCLA	P10	8.2382	1.0000	1.9
5	X	Ohio St.	B10	7.8872	1.0000	5.8
6		Wisconsin	B10	7.7504	1.0000	6.7
7	X	Texas A&M	B12	6.8072	1.0000	10.0
8		Kentucky	SEC	6.6762	1.0000	6.5
9		Arizona	P10	5.8499	1.0000	7.6
10		Kansas	B12	5.8352	1.0000	15.1
11	X	Memphis	CUSA	5.3987	1.0000	11.5
12	X	Nevada	WAC	5.1320	1.0000	24.9
13		Southern Illinois	MVC	5.0716	1.0000	15.9
14		Georgetown	BE	4.7960	1.0000	18.8
15	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	4.7315	1.0000	16.6
16	X	Butler	Horz	4.5401	1.0000	27.3
17		Washington St.	P10	4.3601	1.0000	28.8
18		Air Force	MWC	4.2634	1.0000	21.0
19		Marquette	BE	4.1957	1.0000	14.9
20		Duke	ACC	4.1669	1.0000	8.6
21		Clemson	ACC	3.9309	1.0000	22.9
22		Indiana	B10	3.6335	0.9999	25.2
23		Creighton	MVC	3.6213	0.9999	28.6
24		Boston College	ACC	3.6006	0.9998	25.1
25		Tennessee	SEC	3.5868	0.9998	17.2
26		Villanova	BE	3.4503	0.9997	14.5
27		Virginia Tech	ACC	3.2353	0.9994	32.4
28	X	Missouri St.	MVC	3.1505	0.9992	23.9
29		Brigham Young	MWC	3.0190	0.9987	30.1
30		Oklahoma St.	B12	2.9684	0.9985	29.0
31		Oregon	P10	2.9154	0.9982	26.9
32	X	Xavier	A10	2.6233	0.9956	40.5
33		Notre Dame	BE	1.8237	0.9659	52.8
34		Purdue	B10	1.8076	0.9647	41.3
35		Florida St.	ACC	1.7304	0.9582	29.8
36		Virginia	ACC	1.6269	0.9481	41.5
37		Alabama	SEC	1.5590	0.9405	33.3
38		Stanford	P10	1.5445	0.9388	40.9
39		Southern California	P10	1.4364	0.9246	43.9
40		Vanderbilt	SEC	1.4012	0.9194	47.0
41		Maryland	ACC	1.2920	0.9018	27.1
42		West Virginia	BE	1.1996	0.8848	41.4
43		Michigan St.	B10	1.1313	0.8710	30.2
44		Georgia Tech	ACC	1.0426	0.8514	44.5
45		Georgia	SEC	0.9967	0.8405	45.1
46	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.8054	0.7897	51.5
47		Texas	B12	0.7280	0.7667	52.1
48		Illinois	B10	0.3907	0.6520	36.8
49		Old Dominion	CAA	0.3669	0.6431	54.4
50		Louisville	BE	0.3364	0.6317	50.8
51	X	Gonzaga	WCC	0.2128	0.5843	58.5
52		Providence	BE	-0.1039	0.4586	48.6
53		Drexel	CAA	-0.3566	0.3607	56.1
54		Arkansas	SEC	-0.3673	0.3567	44.3
55		Kansas St.	B12	-0.4193	0.3375	60.9
56		Appalachian St.	SC	-0.4330	0.3325	79.0
57		Oklahoma	B12	-0.5529	0.2902	48.9
58		Syracuse	BE	-0.8700	0.1922	48.1
59		Massachusetts	A10	-1.0295	0.1516	69.6
60		Wichita St.	MVC	-1.1888	0.1173	66.6
61		San Diego St.	MWC	-1.2136	0.1124	61.2
62		Bradley	MVC	-1.2452	0.1065	49.3
63		St. Louis	A10	-1.2700	0.1020	73.6
64	X	Winthrop	BSth	-1.3389	0.0903	84.3
65		Texas Tech	B12	-1.4245	0.0772	50.4
66		Michigan	B10	-1.4374	0.0753	54.9
67		Hofstra	CAA	-1.4444	0.0743	81.5
68	X	Davidson	SC	-1.5259	0.0635	76.3
69		Mississippi St.	SEC	-1.7416	0.0408	63.0
70		Mississippi	SEC	-1.7743	0.0380	62.4
71	X	Akron	MAC	-1.9119	0.0279	82.6
72		New Mexico St.	WAC	-2.2280	0.0129	83.0
73		Santa Clara	WCC	-2.4396	0.0074	82.4
74		Dayton	A10	-2.4506	0.0071	72.6
75		Connecticut	BE	-2.6242	0.0043	62.4
76	X	Western Kentucky	SB	-2.6718	0.0038	88.9
77		DePaul	BE	-2.6835	0.0036	67.4
78	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-2.7177	0.0033	80.5
79		Washington	P10	-2.7566	0.0029	67.5
80		Houston	CUSA	-2.7869	0.0027	73.9
81		Nebraska	B12	-2.8754	0.0020	77.9
82		Hawaii	WAC	-3.1705	0.0008	87.5
83		Utah St.	WAC	-3.3654	0.0004	76.9
84		Wright St.	Horz	-3.3885	0.0004	98.8
85		Louisiana St.	SEC	-3.4103	0.0003	64.0
86		Northern Iowa	MVC	-3.4210	0.0003	85.9
87		Iowa	B10	-3.5316	0.0002	80.7
88	X	Pennsylvania	Ivy	-3.5506	0.0002	98.1
89	X	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-3.6044	0.0002	95.4
90	X	Oral Roberts	MCon	-3.8440	0.0001	101.1
91		Missouri	B12	-3.9436	0.0000	73.4
92		Vermont	AE	-4.0115	0.0000	104.6
93		Albany	AE	-4.0209	0.0000	104.4
94		California	P10	-4.1657	0.0000	71.4
95		Long Beach St.	BW	-4.2071	0.0000	103.2
96		Kent St.	MAC	-4.2195	0.0000	104.2
97		Saint Joseph's	A10	-4.2518	0.0000	89.7
98		Toledo	MAC	-4.3265	0.0000	106.1
99		Bucknell	Pat	-4.3936	0.0000	110.0
100		Ohio	MAC	-4.6008	0.0000	101.8
101		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-4.6985	0.0000	113.1
102		Boise St.	WAC	-4.7347	0.0000	106.0
103		Fresno St.	WAC	-4.7628	0.0000	95.6
104		George Washington	A10	-5.2301	0.0000	97.4
105		Central Florida	CUSA	-5.2451	0.0000	117.3
106		Austin Peay	OVC	-5.5038	0.0000	127.8
107		South Alabama	SB	-5.5629	0.0000	119.9
108	X	Marist	MAAC	-5.6741	0.0000	124.0
109		Auburn	SEC	-5.7511	0.0000	90.1
110		Indiana St.	MVC	-5.8875	0.0000	103.9
111		South Carolina	SEC	-5.9485	0.0000	88.0
112		Colorado St.	MWC	-6.2994	0.0000	113.1
113		Tulsa	CUSA	-6.3311	0.0000	111.0
114	X	UC Santa Barbara	BW	-6.4386	0.0000	133.1
115		Utah	MWC	-6.4699	0.0000	113.9
116		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-6.5473	0.0000	112.3
117		College of Charleston	SC	-6.5678	0.0000	123.6
118		Fordham	A10	-6.5937	0.0000	122.6
119		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-6.7057	0.0000	136.6
120		Wyoming	MWC	-6.7842	0.0000	116.2
121		North Carolina St.	ACC	-6.8507	0.0000	94.5
122		New Mexico	MWC	-6.9654	0.0000	111.6
123		Oakland	MCon	-7.0346	0.0000	130.0
124		Rhode Island	A10	-7.0814	0.0000	121.2
125	X	East Tennessee St.	ASun	-7.1719	0.0000	148.1
126		UAB	CUSA	-7.1949	0.0000	120.0
127		Belmont	ASun	-7.3684	0.0000	147.6
128		St. John's	BE	-7.3890	0.0000	109.1
129		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-7.4317	0.0000	134.7
130		Miami OH	MAC	-7.5423	0.0000	124.3
131		Evansville	MVC	-7.7370	0.0000	109.2
132		Samford	OVC	-7.8965	0.0000	151.9
133		Seton Hall	BE	-8.1887	0.0000	109.5
134		Drake	MVC	-8.2694	0.0000	117.7
135		Utah Valley St.	ind	-8.3459	0.0000	156.4
136		Temple	A10	-8.3505	0.0000	135.6
137		Yale	Ivy	-8.5874	0.0000	150.3
138		Rice	CUSA	-8.6517	0.0000	146.9
139	X	Tennessee Tech	OVC	-8.6655	0.0000	156.3
140	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-8.7006	0.0000	159.4
141		George Mason	CAA	-8.7349	0.0000	131.5
142		Western Michigan	MAC	-8.8795	0.0000	149.2
143	X	Delaware St.	MEAC	-8.8867	0.0000	162.3
144		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-9.0107	0.0000	146.8
145		Duquesne	A10	-9.1142	0.0000	165.5
146		North Texas	SB	-9.1950	0.0000	168.6
147		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-9.3125	0.0000	168.0
148		Illinois St.	MVC	-9.3495	0.0000	131.5
149		Central Connecticut	NEC	-9.4059	0.0000	176.1
150		Cincinnati	BE	-9.4660	0.0000	131.5
151		Siena	MAAC	-9.4709	0.0000	159.4
152		Wake Forest	ACC	-9.5356	0.0000	126.2
153		Baylor	B12	-9.7576	0.0000	121.8
154		North Dakota St.	ind	-9.7618	0.0000	176.9
155		Charlotte	A10	-9.8356	0.0000	137.9
156		Valparaiso	MCon	-9.9655	0.0000	170.2
157		Weber St.	BSky	-9.9795	0.0000	168.5
158		Niagara	MAAC	-10.0810	0.0000	180.5
159		Iowa St.	B12	-10.2029	0.0000	133.4
160		Marshall	CUSA	-10.2702	0.0000	161.7
161		Towson	CAA	-10.2752	0.0000	146.8
162		Cornell	Ivy	-10.3001	0.0000	174.0
163		Loyola MD	MAAC	-10.3019	0.0000	184.3
164		Middle Tennessee	SB	-10.3215	0.0000	164.5
165		St. Mary's	WCC	-10.5049	0.0000	156.1
166		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-10.5787	0.0000	161.7
167	X	Idaho St.	BSky	-10.6048	0.0000	164.9
168		Northwestern	B10	-10.7866	0.0000	133.0
169		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-10.8231	0.0000	157.7
170		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-11.0918	0.0000	181.8
171		Sacred Heart	NEC	-11.1063	0.0000	187.7
172		Miami FL	ACC	-11.1904	0.0000	153.8
173		Murray St.	OVC	-11.2322	0.0000	194.8
174		Minnesota	B10	-11.2332	0.0000	142.7
175		Lipscomb	ASun	-11.3443	0.0000	184.0
176		High Point	BSth	-11.5144	0.0000	191.0
177		South Florida	BE	-11.5581	0.0000	150.2
178		Penn St.	B10	-11.6642	0.0000	141.6
179		Furman	SC	-11.7697	0.0000	190.7
180		Southern Utah	MCon	-11.7919	0.0000	186.5
181		Rider	MAAC	-11.7952	0.0000	192.4
182		San Francisco	WCC	-11.8641	0.0000	174.7
183		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-12.0696	0.0000	184.8
184		UC Irvine	BW	-12.1164	0.0000	188.8
185		Manhattan	MAAC	-12.1265	0.0000	208.4
186	X	Boston University	AE	-12.1742	0.0000	187.3
187		Jacksonville	ASun	-12.3894	0.0000	200.0
188		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-12.4368	0.0000	196.7
189		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-12.5032	0.0000	181.0
190		Northern Arizona	BSky	-12.5788	0.0000	212.0
191		San Diego	WCC	-12.6716	0.0000	190.0
192		William & Mary	CAA	-12.6725	0.0000	171.0
193	X	Jackson St.	SWAC	-12.6921	0.0000	204.6
194		Montana	BSky	-12.7062	0.0000	200.7
195		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-12.8035	0.0000	203.5
196		New Orleans	SB	-12.8580	0.0000	199.3
197		Youngstown St.	Horz	-12.8736	0.0000	185.7
198		Rutgers	BE	-13.0114	0.0000	161.3
199		Pacific	BW	-13.0791	0.0000	192.8
200		Columbia	Ivy	-13.0819	0.0000	202.9
201		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-13.1708	0.0000	208.2
202		Texas Christian	MWC	-13.2138	0.0000	169.3
203		Portland St.	BSky	-13.3853	0.0000	207.0
204		Cal Poly	BW	-13.4007	0.0000	213.3
205		NC Greensboro	SC	-13.6740	0.0000	216.3
206		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-13.6854	0.0000	220.9
207		Harvard	Ivy	-13.7371	0.0000	198.3
208		Tulane	CUSA	-13.8040	0.0000	206.6
209		Detroit	Horz	-13.8140	0.0000	196.1
210		Hampton	MEAC	-13.9373	0.0000	214.9
211		Fairfield	MAAC	-14.0564	0.0000	205.7
212		Lehigh	Pat	-14.0982	0.0000	216.4
213		Northeastern	CAA	-14.1027	0.0000	188.6
214		Navy	Pat	-14.1287	0.0000	209.8
215		Princeton	Ivy	-14.2383	0.0000	214.4
216		IUPUI	MCon	-14.2856	0.0000	218.7
217		Canisius	MAAC	-14.3787	0.0000	220.6
218		Florida Atlantic	SB	-14.4919	0.0000	213.6
219		Arkansas St.	SB	-14.6343	0.0000	231.2
220		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-14.7539	0.0000	231.2
221		Florida A&M	MEAC	-14.7602	0.0000	231.5
222		Monmouth	NEC	-14.8019	0.0000	221.2
223		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-14.8196	0.0000	236.8
224		Oregon St.	P10	-14.8806	0.0000	162.2
225		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-14.9215	0.0000	222.9
226		Maine	AE	-15.3516	0.0000	234.6
227		Eastern Washington	BSky	-15.5031	0.0000	231.9
228		American	Pat	-15.5626	0.0000	222.2
229		Buffalo	MAC	-15.5770	0.0000	217.3
230		Lamar	Slnd	-15.7744	0.0000	240.0
231		Quinnipiac	NEC	-15.7776	0.0000	250.7
232		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-15.8222	0.0000	222.7
233		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-15.8416	0.0000	217.4
234		Ball St.	MAC	-15.8913	0.0000	227.7
235		Chattanooga	SC	-16.0226	0.0000	228.0
236		Colorado	B12	-16.1012	0.0000	205.7
237		MD Baltimore County	AE	-16.2411	0.0000	236.7
238		Army	Pat	-16.4086	0.0000	228.5
239		Brown	Ivy	-16.6020	0.0000	249.0
240		Troy	SB	-16.6563	0.0000	239.7
241		Mercer	ASun	-16.6857	0.0000	257.5
242		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-16.7942	0.0000	250.1
243		Hartford	AE	-16.8555	0.0000	245.8
244		Central Michigan	MAC	-17.0672	0.0000	246.9
245		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-17.1375	0.0000	241.4
246		Western Carolina	SC	-17.3259	0.0000	238.6
247		Colgate	Pat	-17.4498	0.0000	248.3
248		Bowling Green	MAC	-17.5274	0.0000	244.1
249		Dartmouth	Ivy	-17.6968	0.0000	252.7
250		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-17.7976	0.0000	257.2
251		Montana St.	BSky	-17.8278	0.0000	272.2
252		Texas Southern	SWAC	-17.8697	0.0000	262.8
253		San Jose St.	WAC	-17.8889	0.0000	223.2
254		Stony Brook	AE	-17.9636	0.0000	255.4
255		Gardner Webb	ASun	-18.0909	0.0000	257.0
256		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-18.2081	0.0000	268.9
257		IUPU Fort Wayne	ind	-18.2118	0.0000	267.5
258		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-18.2546	0.0000	273.7
259		Arizona St.	P10	-18.2644	0.0000	204.5
260		Grambling	SWAC	-18.2840	0.0000	279.3
261		Chicago St.	MCon	-18.3851	0.0000	242.0
262		Liberty	BSth	-18.3885	0.0000	266.2
263		Tennessee St.	OVC	-18.4018	0.0000	261.9
264		Binghamton	AE	-18.4820	0.0000	267.2
265		Morehead St.	OVC	-18.8236	0.0000	280.7
266		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-18.8946	0.0000	272.5
267		New Hampshire	AE	-18.9609	0.0000	274.7
268		McNeese St.	Slnd	-19.2395	0.0000	277.4
269		Texas Pan American	ind	-19.2556	0.0000	285.2
270		Northern Illinois	MAC	-19.2598	0.0000	271.1
271		La Salle	A10	-19.2876	0.0000	249.9
272		Georgia St.	CAA	-19.3784	0.0000	238.6
273		Coppin St.	MEAC	-19.4073	0.0000	262.4
274		Campbell	ASun	-19.4338	0.0000	277.3
275		Georgia Southern	SC	-19.4378	0.0000	267.9
276		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-19.4464	0.0000	277.2
277		Savannah St.	ind	-19.4938	0.0000	274.5
278		Morgan St.	MEAC	-19.5026	0.0000	298.4
279		Florida International	SB	-19.6325	0.0000	278.2
280		NC Wilmington	CAA	-19.7198	0.0000	250.3
281		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-19.8549	0.0000	289.4
282		Pepperdine	WCC	-19.9054	0.0000	262.7
283		Stetson	ASun	-19.9382	0.0000	284.5
284		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-19.9411	0.0000	288.4
285		Wagner	NEC	-20.1419	0.0000	293.8
286		Cleveland St.	Horz	-20.1539	0.0000	275.5
287		Missouri Kansas City	MCon	-20.2055	0.0000	281.1
288		Portland	WCC	-20.2633	0.0000	266.6
289		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-20.5430	0.0000	301.7
290		St. Bonaventure	A10	-20.7047	0.0000	277.3
291		James Madison	CAA	-20.9983	0.0000	285.5
292		Delaware	CAA	-21.0054	0.0000	279.2
293		Centenary	MCon	-21.0075	0.0000	286.4
294		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-21.0391	0.0000	307.6
295		UC Davis	ind	-21.1701	0.0000	307.7
296		St. Francis NY	NEC	-21.2580	0.0000	295.6
297		Alabama St.	SWAC	-21.2941	0.0000	305.5
298		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-21.3876	0.0000	307.7
299		Lafayette	Pat	-21.5216	0.0000	288.2
300		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-21.5805	0.0000	321.7
301		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-21.5880	0.0000	303.3
302		NC Asheville	BSth	-21.6755	0.0000	297.8
303		Southern	SWAC	-21.6905	0.0000	305.5
304		Longwood	ind	-21.9052	0.0000	296.5
305		Wofford	SC	-21.9525	0.0000	294.7
306		Long Island	NEC	-22.1314	0.0000	319.0
307		Howard	MEAC	-22.1451	0.0000	320.2
308		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-22.1515	0.0000	312.8
309		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-22.2064	0.0000	311.9
310		Sacramento St.	BSky	-22.2905	0.0000	308.5
311		Richmond	A10	-22.3906	0.0000	280.9
312		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-22.4040	0.0000	313.0
313		Winston Salem St.	ind	-22.5487	0.0000	314.6
314		Radford	BSth	-22.6023	0.0000	314.0
315		UC Riverside	BW	-22.6055	0.0000	314.8
316		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-22.6928	0.0000	328.8
317		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-22.7613	0.0000	306.7
318		Texas St.	Slnd	-23.0320	0.0000	318.6
319		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-23.0376	0.0000	303.9
320		South Dakota St.	ind	-23.0451	0.0000	323.5
321		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-23.1026	0.0000	327.3
322		The Citadel	SC	-23.1483	0.0000	293.0
323		East Carolina	CUSA	-23.2099	0.0000	312.3
324		Idaho	WAC	-23.2800	0.0000	289.9
325		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-23.3819	0.0000	329.7
326		Elon	SC	-23.4874	0.0000	305.1
327		St. Peter's	MAAC	-23.6354	0.0000	325.4
328		Western Illinois	MCon	-23.6444	0.0000	327.0
329		Charleston Southern	BSth	-23.8798	0.0000	326.4
330		Iona	MAAC	-23.9759	0.0000	324.2
331		Denver	SB	-24.0075	0.0000	329.5
332		St. Francis PA	NEC	-24.1214	0.0000	327.5
333		Northern Colorado	BSky	-24.2576	0.0000	334.8
334		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-24.2968	0.0000	331.4
335		North Florida	ASun	-24.7477	0.0000	334.7
336		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-26.1401	0.0000	334.9

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, and to Jay Colemen for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com